EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Revenue Estimating Conference for the General Revenue Fund

March 9, 2010

Since the December General Revenue Estimating Conference, underlying collections have been
virtually on estimate with some sources performing above estimate and others below. In
response, the Revenue Estimating Conference has made minor adjustments to its near-term
forecast. Fiscal Year 2009-10 has been revised upward by $25.3 million or less than 0.2% above
the estimate from December. For Fiscal Year 2010-11, expected revenues were increased by
$56.1 million or less than 0.3% above the earlier forecast.

The increased current year estimate, in addition to revenue measures enacted during the 2009
legislative session, will continue to result in estimated general revenue collections for Fiscal
Year 2009-10 that exceed those collected in Fiscal Year 2008-09, marking the end to three
consecutive years of decline. Today’s Fiscal Year 2009-10 revenue estimate is $31.3 million
above Fiscal Year 2008-09. The Fiscal Year 2010-11 forecast remains positive with projected
growth of 6.7% over the revised Fiscal Year 2009-10 estimate.

Overall, the adjustments to the forecast are indicative of an economy that is stabilizing. In this
regard, the revisions fine-tune the previous revenue projections, taking into account the overages
received since the last forecast --- and recognizing the adjustments to the economic forecast next
year. Specifically, revenue collections are affected in the following ways:

• Sales Tax… Better than expected sales tax receipts enabled upward revisions to several
of the categories that comprise Sales Tax receipts. Cumulatively, the revisions total an
addition of $95.5 million in 2009-10 and $30.4 million in 2010-11.

• Insurance Premium Tax... Anticipated receipts from the Insurance Premium Tax were
slightly increased in response to changes in the underlying forecast for the property and
casualty premiums.

• Documentary Stamp and Intangibles Taxes… Residential sales concentrated at lower

price points are limiting the benefit from the higher than expected number of sales;
however, Documentary Stamp Tax collections are not expected to decline as much as
anticipated in December. The Intangibles Tax was continued at the current estimates.

Several of the larger downward revisions (notably Tobacco Taxes, Article V Fees & Transfers,
and Highway Safety Licenses & Fees) are based on results of earlier conferences. Additional
information regarding these sources can be found on the Legislative Office of Economic and
Demographic Research’s website: http://edr.state.fl.us/conferences.htm.

Underlying the forecast is the assumption that the extreme financial and economic stress that
began over a year ago has reached its bottom. From this point forward, months of modest
growth are expected before full recovery begins in earnest in the spring of 2011. Revenue
collections are not anticipated to exceed the Fiscal Year 2005-06 level until Fiscal Year 2013-14.