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Mini-Lecture 7.1
The concept of global power.
Rise and fall of civilizations.
Rise and fall of global powers.
Historical Patterns
History is not just one damn thing after another.
Ian Morris, Why the West RulesFor Now (New York:
Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011), p. 560.
History
repeats itself,
first as
tragedy,
second as
farce.
Karl Marx
History
does not
repeat itself,
but it often
rhymes.
Mark Twain
The Historians
Hegel & Marx: The dialectic of history.
Oswald Spengler, The Decline of the West
(1918-23): civilizations as living organisms.
Arnold Toynbee, A Study of History (1934-61):
Cycles of challenge, response, and suicide driven
by moral & political decay.
Paul Kennedy, The Rise & Fall of the Great
Powers (1987): Imperial overstretch.
Jared Diamond, Collapse (2005): Malthusian
abuse of natural environments.
Niall Ferguson, Complexity & Collapse (2010):
It happens fast (punctuated equilibrium).
Punctuated Equilibrium
Great powers and empires are complex systems,
made up of a very large number of interacting
components that are asymmetrically organized.
Such systems can appear to operate quite stably for
some time; they seem to be in equilibrium but are, in
fact, constantly adapting. But there comes a moment
when complex systems go critical. A very small
trigger can set off a phase transition from a benign
equilibrium to a crisis. When things go wrong in a
complex system, the scale of disruption is nearly
impossible to anticipate a relatively minor shock
can cause a disproportionateand sometimes fatal
disruption.
Source: Niall Ferguson, Complexity and Collapse. Foreign Affairs (March-April 2010).
Classic Examples
Rome: 5th C.
Aztecs, Mayas and Incas: early 16th C.
Ming China: 17th C.
French monarchy: late 18th C.
The Spanish empire in the wake of the Napoleonic
invasions.
The Hapsburg, Ottoman and Romanov empires during
World War I.
The British Empire after World War II.
The Soviet Union following Afghanistan and Chernobyl.
The United States after Afghanistan, Iraq, and the global
financial crisis?
External:
Abuse of physical environment.
External threats.
Mini-Lecture 7.2
Lets do the numbers.
Year:
1870
1913
1000
1500
1820
1850
Population
(million)
Western Europe
Of which: UK
USA
Latin America
China
India
Japan
Africa
World total
25.1
0.8
0.7
5.6
59.6
75.0
3.0
17.0
225.8
25.6
2.0
1.3
11.4
59.0
75.0
7.5
32.3
267.3
57.3
3.9
2.0
17.5
103.0
110.0
15.4
46.6
438.4
133.0
21.2
10.0
21.6
381.0
209.0
31.0
74.2
1,041.7
166.2
27.2
23.6
31.8
412.0
235.8
32.0
187.5
31.4
40.2
40.4
358.0
253.0
34.4
90.5
1,275.7
GDP (billion)
Western Europe
Of which: UK
USA
Latin America
China
India
Japan
Africa
World total
14.4
0.3
0.3
2.2
26.8
33.8
1.2
8.0
105.4
10.9
0.8
0.5
4.6
27.5
33.8
3.2
13.7
121.2
44.2
2.8
0.8
7.3
61.8
60.5
7.7
19.3
248.3
158.9
36.2
12.5
14.9
228.6
111.4
20.7
31.2
693.5
260.3
63.3
42.6
247.2
125.7
21.7
576
400
400
400
450
450
400
472
467
427
400
400
400
466
450
425
425
453
771
714
400
416
600
550
500
414
566
1,194
1,706
1,257
691
600
533
669
420
666
1,567
2,330
1,806
600
533
679
1950
2008
261.0
45.6
97.6
80.8
437.1
303.7
51.7
124.7
1,792.9
305.6
50.1
152.3
165.5
546.8
359.0
83.8
227.9
2,528.0
401.4
60.9
304.2
580.2
1,324.8
1,148.0
127.3
974.5
6,694.8
366.2
110.2
98.4
27.3
189.7
134.9
25.4
45.2
1,109.7
902.1
224.6
517.4
120.8
241.4
204.2
71.7
79.5
2,733.2
1,396.3
347.8
1,455.9
415.3
245.0
222.2
161.0
202.6
5,335.9
8,698.0
1,447.0
9,485.1
4,045.9
8,908.9
3,415.2
2,904.1
1,734.9
50,973.9
1,953
3,190
2,445
676
530
533
737
500
870
3,457
4,921
5,301
1,494
552
673
1,387
637
1,524
4,569
6,939
9,561
2,510
448
619
1,921
889
2,111
21,672
23,742
31,178
6,973
6,725
2,975
22,816
1,780
7,614
Notes:
GDP and GDP per capita calculated using constant 1990 Geary-Khamis international
dollars.
Largest figure for each year noted in bold type.
Source: Angus Maddison, Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD.
www.gddc.net/maddison (accessed August 20, 2011).
Largest Populations
India until ca. 1520.
China since ca. 1520.
India is projected to regain the #1
position by 2030.
Biggest Economies
1 - ca.1500: India.
ca. 1500 - ca.1888: China.
ca. 1888 - present: United States
2020? onwards: China.
The UK was never the largest economy. It
was the second largest 1820-1872. Before
1820 France was bigger, and after 1872 the
U.S. was bigger. Germany became bigger
than the UK in 1908.
Western Europe as a bloc was the largest
economy ca. 1840-1942.
Biggest Economies
(% world total, using purchasing power parities)
Mini-Lecture 7.3
Power resources:
Hard power: territory, population, economy,
finance, military force.
Soft power: knowledge, technology, and culture.
World
USA
China
Japan
EU
Germany
Brazil
Russia
India
148,940
7,046.4
84.1
9,827
313.9
99.0
9,597
1,350.7
95.9
378
127.6
99.0
4,325
509.0
99.5
357
81.9
99.0
8,515
198.7
90.0
17,098
143.5
99.5
3,287
1,236.7
61.0
4,400
1,742.2
100.0
2,150
682.5
39.2
0a
166.2
9.5
0
59.3
3.4
450
274.9
15.8
0
45.8
2.6
0
33.2
1.9
1,800
90.1
5.2
0a
44.8
2.6
86,057
71.918
12,213
35.6
23,593
15,685
15,685
49,965
81.0
5,191
12,471
8,358
9,233
42.3
509b
4,487
5,960
35,178
79.1
1,055
17,067
16,634
33,527
75.3
9,837g
3,349
3,400
40,901
84.0
1,547
2,366
2,253
11,909
49.8
233
3,373
2,015
23,501
53.3
413
4,793
1,842
3,876
12.6
118
100
6,573
3,573
30
819
685
3c
584d
72f
6
441
142
32
1,512e
1,215g
3
212
201
0
99
15
0
140
130
0
1,255
22
Notes: n.a.: not available. a China has 250 non-deployed warheads and India 110. b Excluding Hong Kong ($bn 1,310). c Excluding
Hong Kong (3 universities). d Excluding Hong Kong (70 films) and Macao (4). e Includes Denmark, Finland, France, Germany,
Ireland, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and the UK. f Excluding Hong Kong (10,300 students) and Macao (13,500). g Includes
foreign investments and foreign students within the EU, i.e. from one member country into another.
Sources: World Development Indicators, except for territory (CIA World Factbook), literacy (United Nations Development Program,
and World Development Indicators), nuclear warheads (SIPRI Yearbook 2013), stock of outward foreign direct investment (World
Investment Report 2013), universities (Top University Rankings, www.topuniversities.com), films produced (UNESCO Institute
for Statistics), and foreign students (UNESCO Institute of Statistics, Global Education Digest 2012, and Institute of International
Education).
Military Spending
(% GDP)
Military Spending
(% of world total)
Largest Navies
Aircraft carriers
Missile submarines
Attack submarines
Total warships
Total personnel (000)
USA
11
18
53
341
324
Russia
1
16
32
282
140
China
0
6
52
239
250
Japan
0
0
18
109
46
UK
1
4
8
100
37
http://military-navy-army-airforce.blogspot.com/2012/10/list-of-top-10-largest-navies-in-world.html
Soft Power
Knowledge and power: The U.S., Europe,
and Japan continue to dominate.
Universities.
R&D.
Patents.
Royalties.
Israel
Finland
Sweden
Japan
Korea,
Rep.
Switzerland
Denmark
United
States
Germany
Austria
Singapore
Iceland
Australia
WORLD
France
Belgium
Canada
United
Kingdom
Netherlands
Slovenia
R&D (% GDP)
4.7 Norway
3.7 Luxembourg
3.7 Portugal
3.4 China
3.4 Czech
Republic
3.0 Ireland
2.9 Spain
2.8 Estonia
2.7 Italy
2.7 Tunisia
2.7 Brazil
2.6 Russian
Federation
2.3 Hungary
2.1 South
Africa
2.1 Croatia
2.0 Ukraine
1.8 India
1.8 Lithuania
1.8 Iran,
Islamic
Rep.
1.7 Belarus
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Receipts
105,583.0
26,680.3
10,407.2
14,284.9
5,168.4
14,384.5
849.4
64.1
877.5
59.2
128.7
397.2
3,623.0
625.1
3,145.8
830.5
1,866.6
Payments
33,450.0
18,768.6
5,558.6
9,676.3
1,382.6
13,050.5
859.5
496.5
2,648.8
1,941.2
2,437.5
2,850.2
7,011.1
5,066.3
8,964.6
13,039.5
15,857.3
Balance
72,133.0
7,911.7
4,848.6
4,608.6
3,785.8
1,334.0
-10.1
-432.4
-1,771.4
-1,882.0
-2,308.8
-2,453.0
-3,388.1
-4,441.2
-5,818.8
-12,209.1
-13,990.7
Mini-Lecture 7.4
China as a global power?
Chinas strengths.
Chinas limitations.
Chinas Limitations
Growth of cities.
Population ageing.
Gender imbalance.
Environmental
degradation.
Loss of cost
competitiveness.
Fragile banking
system.
Transition to
consumer economy.
Currency
convertibility.
Rampant corruption.
Income inequality.
Political legitimacy.
Internal ethnic strife.
Internal territorial
issues.
Conflicts with
neighboring countries.
Open ocean access.
Pax Sinica?
Key Books about Chinas Rise
Remember Japan?
Vogel, Japan as Number One (1979).
Ouchi, Theory Z (1981).
Imai, Kaizen: The Key to Japans
Competitive Success (1986).
Crichton, Rising Sun (1992) [a novel].
The Skeptics
Joseph Nye, Soft Power (2004) and The Future of
Power (2011): U.S. still on top, but cannot
accomplish everything by itself.
Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose
to Fail or Succeed (2005): China faces numerous
challenges.
Aaron Friedberg, A Contest for Supremacy (2011):
U.S. can benefit from Chinas rise.
John Ikenberry, The Future of the Liberal World
Order. Foreign Affairs ( May-June 2011): China
does not want to undermine the global liberal
economic order, but to become more influential
within it.
Henry Kissinger
The question ultimately comes down to what
the United States and China can realistically
ask of each other. An explicit American
project to organize Asia on the basis of
containing China [] is unlikely to succeed
in part because China is an indispensable
trading partner for most of its neighbors. By
the same token, a Chinese attempt to exclude
America from Asian economic and security
affairs will similarly meet serious resistance
from almost all other Asian states.
Source: Henry Kissinger, On China (New York: Penguin Press, 2011), p. 526.
Mini-Lecture 7.5
Global Governance: The basic problem.
Options.
Mauro F. Guillen. Source of the data: W. Woodruff, Impact of Western Man (1966).
Mauro F. Guillen. Source of the data: World Investment Report; World Investment Directory.
Global Governance
United Nations:
Climate change.
Peacekeeping.
Human rights, refugees, etc.
World Bank:
Poverty reduction.
G6 and G7
Largest market economies: US, Japan,
Germany, UK, France, Italy, Canada.
First met in 1975 as a G6 (without Canada,
which joined a year later).
A total of 22 summits.
In 1985 the G5 (US, Japan, Germany, UK
and France) reached the famous Plaza
Accord, which brought down the value of
the U.S. dollar in an orderly way.
G8
Since 1998.
US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Canada,
Italy.
Russia
A total of 16 summits, with additional
countries and multilateral organizations
occasionally invited.
G20
Started in 1999.
US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy,
Canada, Russia.
Europe: EU.
Africa: South Africa.
Asia/Pacific: China, India, South Korea,
Indonesia, Australia.
LatAm: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico.
Middle East: Saudi Arabia, Turkey.
8 head-of-state summits since 2008.
My View
A multi-polar world.
G-zero world (Roubini & Bremmer).
No single power can impose its will.
The problem of American power in the
twenty-first century, then, is not one of
decline but what to do in light of the
realization that even the largest country
cannot achieve outcomes it wants without
the help of others.
Joseph Nye, The Future of American Power: Dominance and Decline in
Perspective. Foreign Affairs (November-December 2010), p. 12.
Mini-Lecture 7.6
Global tensions.
Socio-Demographic Realm
DRIVERS:
Population ageing.
Shifting demographic
centers of gravity.
Growth of cities.
Income inequality.
IMPLICATIONS:
Fiscal crisis.
Political unrest.
Geopolitical balance
of power.
Race for natural
resources: energy,
water, and food.
Economic Realm
DRIVERS:
Growth of emerging
economies.
Global trade &
financial imbalances.
IMPLICATIONS:
Competition for
natural resources.
Geopolitical frictions.
Skills gap.
Income inequality.
Geopolitical Realm
DRIVERS:
Shift in geo-economic
balance of power.
Failed states.
New forms of violent
conflict.
IMPLICATIONS:
Governance problems
(G-zero world).
Political Realm
DRIVERS:
Crisis of the state:
fiscal and legitimacy.
Disillusionment with
democracy.
Proliferation of
anocracies.
IMPLICATIONS:
Diminished state
capacity to act.
Social unrest.
Political protests.
Mini-Lecture 7.7
What kind of world should we expect.
Basic Postulates
Complexity:
Multi-polar world.
Unanticipated interactions.
Tight coupling:
Within countries and across the global system.
Little room for error.
Uncertainty:
The new normal.
Potential for systemic disruption.
Whats needed?
New programs, new products?
New mindset?
Week 7 Test
I hope you have enjoyed learning about the
challenges facing the world in terms of
sustainability.
Now, please take again the Global Literacy
Test.