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2015

Lesson7:OverviewofLifeTablesandSurvivalRates|MEASUREEvaluationM&ELearningCenter

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Lesson7:OverviewofLifeTablesandSurvivalRates
Course Objective
Acquire skills to use life tables and calculate survival rates

Expected Outcome
Ability to use alternative sources of data (life tables and census reports) to construct survival rates
The cohort component projection method projects the population into the future by age (usually 5-year age groups) and sex. Survival rates are used to calculate the
number of people that will be alive at a future date in time. This lesson provides information on alternative ways to calculate survival rates. It begins with a discussion of
life tables, since survival rates are derived from life tables. It demonstrates how to calculate rates for ages birth to 85 plus. It also discusses ways to use census data to
compute survival rates when life tables are not available.

## 7.1 Taking Demographic Projections

Survival rates are used extensively in demographic projection techniques. Survival rates are derived from life tables or census data, and are used to calculate the number
of people that will be alive in the future. In many cases, planners can obtain survival rates from a national or regional statistics office, or from life tables. If survival
rates or life tables are not available, the rates may be computed from a model life table or census data.

Life tables
Life tables are used to measure mortality, survivorship, and the life expectancy of a population at varying ages.
There are several types of life tables. A generation or cohort life table is a life history of the mortality experiences of an actual cohort of individuals. The cohort begins
at birth and their mortality experiences are recorded through the death of the last member of that cohort. For example, demographers use the table to trace the mortality
experiences of a cohort or group of individuals born in 1910 and record the mortality experiences of each member until the last one dies. In most cases, generation life
tables are used to study historic periods.

## Current or period life tables

Period life tables are based on the mortality experience of a hypothetical cohort of newborn babies, usually 100,000 newborns, who are subject to the age-specific
mortality rates on which the table is based. It traces the cohort of newborn babies throughout their lifetime under the assumption that they are subject to the agespecific mortality rates of a region or country.
There are two types of current life tables:
Unabridged, for single years of life
Abridged, for 5-year cohorts of life
In many countries, life tables are based on an average of age-specific death rates for a 3-year time period, generally around a census taking. In many cases, the life tables
are prepared every 10 years. For example, a country or state would collect age-specific death rates for 1999, 2000, and 2001. The census for year 2000 would be used for
the base population.
^Top

## 7.2 Columns of a Life Table

Table 7-1 provides an example of an abridged life table.
Table 7-1
Example of an Abridged Life Table
Age Interval
Column 1

00-01
1-5
5-10
10-15
15-20
20-25
25-30
30-35
35-40
40-45
45-50
50-55
55-60
60-65
65-70

nQx

lx

ndx

Lx

Tx

Column 2

Column 3

Column 4

Column 5

Column 6

0.02592
0.0042
0.00232
0.00201
0.00443
0.00611
0.00632
0.00654
0.01098
0.01765
0.02765
0.04387
0.05987
0.09654
0.13654

100000
97408
96999
96774
96579
96151
95564
94960
94339
93303
91656
89122
85212
80111
72377

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2592
409
225
195
428
587
604
621
1036
1647
2534
3910
5102
7734
9882

97408
387996
483869
482897
480757
477820
474800
471695
466516
458282
445610
426061
400553
361884
312472

6892855
6795447
6407451
5923582
5440686
4959928
4482108
4007308
3535613
3069097
2610815
2165205
1739144
1338591
976707

e
Column 7

68.93
69.76
66.06
61.21
56.33
51.58
46.90
42.20
37.48
32.89
28.48
24.29
20.41
16.71
13.49

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70-75
75-80
80-85
85-90
90-95
95+

0.18765
0.25439
0.37887
0.47898
0.57908
1

62494
50767
37853
23511
12250
5156

11727
12915
14341
11261
7094
5156

253837
189263
117557
61250
25781
16548

664235
410399
221135
103578
42329
16548

10.63
8.08
5.84
4.41
3.46
3.21

## The columns of the life table include:

Column 1
Age interval, x to x+n: Age interval between exact ages for each row of the life table
Column 2
nQx: The proportion of the population in each age interval that are alive at the beginning of the interval, and dead before reaching the end of the interval. The
proportion is computed from the observed mortality rates of an actual population and is used to derive the remaining columns of the life table.
Column 3
lx: The number of persons alive at the beginning of the age interval
Column 4
ndx: The number of persons dying during the age interval
Column 5
Lx: The total number of person-years in the stationary population for each age interval. It can be viewed as the average population size between birthdays, taking into
account the distribution of deaths throughout the year.
Column 6
Tx: This column records the stationary population in the indicated age interval and all subsequent intervals. It is the cumulative sum of the nLx values. It can be viewed
as the total number of person-years that would be lived for a particular age cohort if the cohort were to progress through the remainder of the life table.
Columns 5 and 6 represent a hypothetical stationary population which has experienced:
a.
b.
c.
d.

No migration
Constant age-specific number of births each year
An increase by a constant number of births each year and decrease by the same constant number of deaths each year
Stationary age structure size In each age group, the number of person-years lived is always the same as that of the original life table cohort.

When a person dies or enters the next higher age interval, their place is immediately taken by someone entering from the next lower age interval. The number of
persons in the age interval remains the same. The values in the Lx and Tx columns are based on the assumption that an additional 100,000 persons are added to the
table annually and are subject to the mortality rates computed in the nQx column. The population is considered stationary because the total population and the
number of people in each age interval do not change.
Column 7
e: This column indicates the average remaining lifetime for a given age group.
^Top

## 7.3 Calculating Survival Rates

Life tables are used to calculate survival rates. For population projections, 5-year survival rates are computed. For estimates of net migration, 10-year survival rates are
calculated. Calculations of survival rates rely on two columns in the life table, Lx and Tx.
Using the abridged life table presented in Table 7-1, calculate 5-year survival rates as shown in Equation 7-1.
Equation 7-1
5-year Survival Rate
To calculate a rate to survive women ages 2529 into the next 5-year age cohort (3034), use the following
numbers from the Lx column in Table 7-1, as shown in the following example.
Example of Equation 7-1
Surviving One Age Group into the Next Year Age Cohort
This process is repeated for most age groups the first
and last age groups are exceptions. Slight modifications
are required to survive these two groups into the next
age group.
Equation 7-2 provides an example of survival rates for
those in the first age interval, 04. Note that the initial
size of the first cohort is multiplied by 5 in the denominator. Why? There is no earlier value for Lx for the denominator. The number 100,000 is multiplied by 5 because,
hypothetically, 100,000 new born babies are added to the table each year for a 5-year period.
Equation 7-2
Surviving the youngest age cohort

For the last age cohort (7585+),use the Tx column to create a 5-year survival rate as shown in Equation 7-3.
The value of Tx represents the number of survivors in a particular age group and all older age groups.

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Equation 7-3
Surviving the oldest age cohort
^Top

## 7.4 Using Model Life Tables

If life tables are not available for a particular country, use
model life tables to obtain survival rates, preferably
regional model life tables.

## Model life table

A model life table is derived from life tables and mortality experiences of a number of countries. They are
primarily used to assist countries that do not have vital statistics systems to record deaths. Using regression
analysis, the United Nations published its first set of model life tables in 1955. The tables were based on life tables from 158 countries. In 1966, Coale and Demeny
introduced regional model life tables. The authors used 326 life tables to develop 200 regional model life tables.
Model life tables include the 5-year survival rates in the Px column. Chart 7-1 describes the steps to use the regional model life tables produced by Coale and Demeny.
Their book is available at most libraries of the United Nations' Fund for Population Activities (UNFP).

Chart 7-1
Step 1:
Selecting
the region

## There are four sets of regional models to

choose from. Select the region that most
closely matches the characteristics of the
country of interest.

EAST MODELS: (18781920) Historic data for Austria, Germany, Czechoslovakia, Northern Italy,
and Poland. Characteristics: high mortality in infancy and increasingly high rates over age 50.
NORTH MODELS: (18511955) Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Characteristics: Low infant mortality
and high adult 45+ mortality from tuberculosis.
SOUTH MODELS: (18761958) Spain, Portugal, and Southern Italy. Characteristics: High childhood
mortality 04, low mortality ages 4060, and high mortality 65+.
WEST MODELS: (18811959) Australia, Belguim, Canada, Denmark, Israel, Japan, Sweden, England,
Wales, Finland, France, Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Scotland, White South Africa,
Taiwan, and the United States. Characteristics: residual collection of the other countries not included
in the other model tables.

Step 2:
Selecting
an
appropriate
table

## The selection of tables within a region should

be based on the infant mortality rate (IMR) of
the country/locale and the life expectancy of
males and females.

The 1000 m column at age 0 depicts the infant mortality rate for the regional model life table. For
the selected region, use the 1000 mx column at age 0 to identify a table that closely matches the
infant mortality rate of your the country/locale.
The table must also have a similar life expectancy to that of the country of interest. To compare the
life expectancy of males and females in a country to that of the regional model life table, use the ex
column at age 0.
Once tables for males and females have been identified, use the 5-year survival rates in column Px,
as shown in Equation 7-2 (use pop-up box).

Coale, Demeny, and Vaughan (pages 2936) provide a detailed description of the table columns and indicate additional ways the regional model life tables can be used in
developing countries.
If copies of the regional model life tables are not available, use the model life tables produced by the United Nations. The infant mortality and life expectancy rates are
used to select UN model life tables. Once appropriate tables have been selected, calculate survival rates using the Lx and Tx columns.
^Top

## 7.5 Calculating National InterCensus Survival Rates

As mentioned earlier, it is best to obtain survival rates from the central or regional statistics office in the country of interest. If survival rates, life tables, or model life
tables are not available, use national census information to calculate census survival rates. National census information must be used in the calculations. Why? Regions,
districts, cities and towns are heavily influenced by migration. Population movements will not drastically influence the population size of a country, as such a small
percentage of the population is comprised on international migrants.
National census survival rates represent the ratio of the population in a given age group from one census period to the population in the same age group in the prior
census (Shryock and Siegel, 1973, p. 454). The basic assumptions of this method are:
No migration during the inter-census period
No abnormal influence on mortality
The census information is accurate
Note: This method requires that accurate census data be obtained for two points in time, usually the last two census takings. Countries experiencing a high incidence of
AIDS (an abnormal influence on mortality) and/or high levels of international migration may not wish to use this approach to calculate national survival rates.
Table 7-2 demonstrates how to set up the information for the calculation.

Table 7-2
Example of How to Calculate Census Survival Rates

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Ages Prior
Census

Ages Recent
Census

Column 1

Column 2
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+

10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+

1990

## National Recent Census

2000

Column 3

Column 4

854046
684900
555790
523890
456765
450900
432980
421123
390879
388012
354678
342123
300987
223456
1234512
90876

Column 5 =
Column 4 divided by
Column 3

Column 6 =
Square Root of Column 5

Rates

## 5 Year Census Survival

Rates

Column 5

Column 6

850654
702562
566432
533118
460213
441232
431223
412932
387432
371123
332321
301232
263123
194022
90987
80432

0.996028
1.025787
1.01914
1.017614
1.00754
0.978558
0.995942
0.980549
0.991181
0.956472
0.93696
0.880478
0.874200
0.868278
0.073702
0.885074

0.998012
1.012811
1.009528
1.008768
1.003767
0.989221
0.997968
0.990227
0.995580
0.977994
0.96796
0.938338
0.934986
0.93181
0.27148
0.940783

Columns 1 and 2 guide the placement of national census data. Data from the prior census (1990) goes in column 3, with census data for the last census year (2000) in
column 4. The census survival rate is calculated by dividing Column 4 by Column 3 (year 2000 divided by year 1990). This produces a 10-year rate. To obtain a 5-year
rate, take the square root of the 10-year rate. Please note that census survival rates are primarily used to estimate net migration. They should be used only in situations
when access to life tables is not available to calculate survival rates. To improve the accuracy of the rates, use national census data for native-born residents. Exclude the
foreign-born population in tables to help control the influence of international migration. At least two sets of census survival rates must be produced, one for males and
one for females. Additional rates may be needed if other attributes of the population are to be included.
Discussion
Projections of the population by age and sex require the use of survival rates. This lesson provided information on alternative ways to calculate these rates. The next
lesson will demonstrate how to use survival rates to calculate net migration and the projected size of a locale by 5-year age groups and sex.
^Top

7.6 Exercises
Use the information provided in Table 7-1 to answer the following questions.
1. Develop a 5-year survival rate to determine how many women ages 5054 are expected to live to be 5559 years of age. Which Lx numbers would be used?
2. Develop a 10-year survival rate to determine how many women ages 5054 are expected to live to be 6064 years of age.
3. Part 1: Calculate 10-year survival rates to estimate net migration. How would survival rates be calculated for the first three cohorts and the last age cohort? Note:
Survival rates for births occurring from 1995 to 2000 and from 1990 to 1995 will be needed, in addition to a rate for those surviving from ages 04 to 1014.
Part 2: Calculate a rate for those age 75+ in 1990 who will be age 85+ in year 2000.
^Top

The first survival rate is for the births that took place from 19952000. This is a
5-year period, calculate a 5-year rate for the births. Use the following numbers
from the Lx column.
Next, develop a survival rate for the births that took place from 19901995.
Develop a 10-year rate to determine how many of
those ages 04 in 1990 will be 1014 years of age
in the year 2000.
Next, develop a 10-year rate to determine how
many of those ages 59 in 1990 will be 1519 years
of age in the year 2000.

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The 10-year survival rate for the last age cohort relies on
the Tx column. Develop a rate to determine how many of
those ages 75+ in 1990 will be 85 + years in the year
2000.
Review
Exercises
Review Exercises:

Question 1
When it is necessary to project population by age and sex to plan for different segments of the population.
1. It is highly dependent on obtaining reliable demographic information.
2. It assumes that the survival rates, birth rates, and estimates of migration are constant throughout the projection period, whether it's a 5-year or 20-year projection.
3. It does not consider the non-demographic factors that influence population growth or decline.
1. Compare projection results with another projection technique.
2. Look at old population pyramids. Do the age cohorts of the projected population move up the pyramid.
3. Consider external factors that could have alter the population composition.
^Top

References
George W. Barclay, "The study of mortality," Techniques of Population Analysis (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1958) 123134.
Ansley J. Coale, Paul Demeny and Barbara Vaughan, 1983, "Uses of the Tables," Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations, 2nd ed. (New York: Academic
Press, 1983) 2936.
Donald J. Bogue, Kenneth Hinze and Michael White, Techniques of Estimating Net Migration (Chicago: Community and Family Study Center, University of Chicago,
1982).
Andrew M. Isserman, "The Right People, the Right Rates," Journal of the American Planning Association 59.1(1993): 4564.
Steve H. Murdock and David R. Ellis, Applied Demography: An Introduction to Basic Concepts, Methods, and Data (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991).
James C. Raymondo, "Survival Rates: Census and Life Table Methods," Population Estimation and Projection (New York: Quorum Books, 1992) 4360.
Henry S. Shryock and Jacob S. Siegel, "The Life Table," The Methods and Materials of Demography (Washington, D.C.: United States Bureau of the Census, 1973).
Note: The sample life table (Table X) was produced using an interactive life table provided by Simple Interactive Statistical Analysis (http://home.clara.net/sisa/index.htm)
and developed by Daan Uitenbroek, of the Netherlands. From the homepage click on Free Spreadsheets.

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