STAT 400

Lectures AL1, BL1, CL1

Homework #2

Fall 2015
A. Stepanov

(due Friday, September 11, by 3:00 p.m.)

Please include your name ( with your last name underlined ), your NetID,
and your discussion section number at the top of the first page.

No credit will be given without supporting work.

1.

In Neverland, 35% of registered voters are Democrats, 25% are Republicans, and 40%
are independents. According to the latest polls, 80% of the Democrats support a national
health insurance program in which all Neverlandians are covered and costs are paid by
tax dollars. However, only 8% of the Republicans support this national health insurance
program. The support for this program among independents is 25%.

a)

You meet a Neverlandian (a registered voter) who supports this national health insurance
program. What is the probability that he/she is a Democrat?

b)

You meet a registered voter who is not a Democrat. What is the probability that he/she
does not supports this national health insurance program?

c)

What is the probability that a randomly selected registered voter is either a Democrat,
or supports the national health insurance program, or both?

2.

At a hospitals emergency room, patients are classified and 20% of them are critical,
30% are serious, and 50% are stable. Of the critical ones, 30% die; of the serious,
10% die; and of the stable, 2% die.

a)

Given that a patient dies, what is the conditional probability that the patient was
classified as critical? As serious? As stable?

b)

Are events {a patient dies} and {a patient was classified as critical} independent?
Justify your answer.

c)

Are events {a patient dies} and {a patient was classified as serious} independent?
Justify your answer.

3.

At the beginning of a certain study of a group of persons, 15% were classified as heavy
smokers, 30% as light smokers, and 55% as nonsmokers. In the five-year study, it was
determined that the death rates of the heavy smokers and light smokers were seven and
three times that of the nonsmokers, respectively. A randomly selected participant died
over the five-year period. What is the probability that the participant was a nonsmoker?
A light smoker? A heavy smoker?

4.

Alex sets three alarm clocks each night to ensure that he does not sleep through his
11:00 a.m. class. His primary clock works properly on 90% of the mornings, his second
alarm clock works properly on 80% of mornings, and his third alarm clock is an antique,
it works properly on only 60% of mornings. Assume the alarm clocks are independent.

a)

Find the probability that Alexs three-alarm strategy prevents him from oversleeping.
That is, find the probability that at least one alarm clock would work on a given morning.

b)

Find the probability that all three alarm clocks would work on a given morning.

c)

Find the probability that exactly two alarm clocks would work on a given morning.

5.

Drug A is effective with probability 0.80. Drug B is effective with probability 0.70.
There is a 40% chance of a negative drug interaction between drugs A and B.
Suppose the effectiveness of the two drugs and the possibility of a negative drug
interaction are all independent. Find the probability that

a)

both drugs are effective and there is no negative drug interaction.

b)

at least one of the two drugs is effective and there is no negative drug interaction.

c)

at most one of the two drugs is effective and there is negative drug interaction.

6.

An urn contains five balls, one marked WIN and four marked LOSE. You and
another player take turns selecting a ball at random from the urn, one at a time.
The first person to select the WIN ball is the winner. If you draw first, find the
probability that you will win if the sampling is done

a)

With replacement.

b)

Without replacement.

7.

An oral final exam continues until a student either answers two questions in a row
correctly (and passes) or answers two questions in a row incorrectly (and fails).
Suppose Alex has probability p to answer any question correctly, independently
of any other questions. What is the probability that Alex would pass the exam?

8.

An electronic device has four independent components. Two of those four are new,
and have a reliability of 0.80 each, one is old, with 0.75 reliability, and one is very
old, and its reliability is 0.60.

a)

Suppose that the device works if all four components are functional. What is the
probability that the device will work when needed?

b)

Suppose that the device works if at least one of the four components is functional.
What is the probability that the device will work when needed?

c)

Suppose that the four components are connected as shown on the diagram below.
Find the reliability of the system.

0.60
0.80
0.80

9.

0.75

Prove (show) that

a)

n 1 n 1
n

+
=
r r 1
r

b)

n 1 n 1
n 2r

=
n
r r 1

n
.
r

( Pascals equation ).

10.

We already know that

n
n
= 2 .
k =0 k

Prove (show) that

n
k = n 2 n 1.
k =0 k