Baruch College, Fall

Professor Tatum
STA 9700 Homework #1 Solutions
9-7-15

Section 1.2
1.2.1 A professor recently bought six bags of Quikrete Mortar Mix and measured their net
weights as follows, in pounds:
54, 60, 63, 61, 58, 65.
These were from one production run. We will assume the size of the production run was 5,000
bags.
(a) Using a pocket calculator where needed, compute a 95% confidence interval for .
y = (54+60+63+61+58+65) / 6 = 361 / 6 = 60.1667 lbs.

s2 = [ (54- 60.1667)2 + (60-60.1667 )2 +(63-60.1667 )2 + (61- 60.1667)2

+ (58- 60.1667)2 + (65-60.1667)2 ] / (6-1)
= ( 38.0278 + 0.0278 + 8.0278 + 0.6944 + 4.6944 + 23.3611 ) / 5
= 14.9667 lbs2.
s = 14.9667 = 3.8686 lbs.
t-critical value for 95% confidence level and 5 d.f. = 2.5706.
s.e. of y = s/n = 3.8686 / 5 = 1.5794
95% C.I. for = y t * (s.e. of y )
= 60.1667 2.5706 * 1.5794
= 60.1667 4.0598
= (56.1069, 64.2266)
(56.11, 64.23) lbs.
Note: some student find it easier to compute the
sample variance in table-style when using a
pocket calculator, as illustrated to the right. The
table-style reduces mistakes.

(b) What assumptions are you making about the nature of the sample and the nature of the
population of net weights?
We are assuming that the sample was drawn at random and that the population of net weights
follows a Normal distribution.
1.2.2 For the above computation, complete the following sentence without using Greek symbols,
We are 95% confident that
"We are 95% confident that the population average of the net weights of mortar bags in this
production run is between 56.11 and 64.23 pounds, assuming (a) the sample was randomly
drawn from the 5,000 bags in this production run and (b) the population of net weights of
bags in this production run was Normally distributed."

Section 1.3
1.3.1 Modify the SAS example program in Section 1.3 to run on the Quikrete data set. Be sure
to change both the variable name and the title. Add your name at the end of the title.
Show your program and the output. Check that your original outcome matches. (With
some experimentation, you should be able to Copy and Paste from SAS into Word. This
will make your much more readable than just adding pages printed directly from SAS.
Often, using font Courier 8 pt or 10 pt will get the SAS output to line up nicely.)
/*Univariate summary statistics for the net weights of six bag of mortar.
Lawrence Tatum, 9/8/14 */
dm "out; clear; log; clear"
Data MortarWt;
Input NetWt;
Datalines;
54
60
63
61
58
65
;
Proc Means Mean Std StdErr N CLM MaxDec=3;
Title "Summary Statistics for NetWts of 6 Bags of Mortar Mix, L. Tatum.";
run;quit;

Summary Statistics for NetWts of 6 Bags of Mortar Mix, L. Tatum.

The MEANS Procedure
Analysis Variable : NetWt
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Mean
Std Dev
Std Error N
CL for Mean
CL for Mean

60.167
3.869
1.579 6
56.107
64.227

Section 1.4
1.4.1 Tell the Story of Many Possible Samples for the Quikrete data, still assuming the
production run was of size N=5000. Try to write this in your own words and for an
audience of beginners. Include a sketch of the probability distribution of the parent
population and that of the daughter population.
Imagine that we knew the net weight for each of the 5000 bags of mortar in the
production run and we write these down as a long column with 5000 entries. That is the
parent population, Y. The parent population has its own population average, Y, and its
own population standard deviation, Y. Since we are modeling Y as following a Normal
distribution, then we can picture its probability distribution as a bell curve centered at Y,
with 95% of the values falling between Y-2 Y and Y+2 Y.
Drawing samples of size n=6 from the parent population and sampling without
replacement, there are 5000C6 = 2.2x1019 possible samples of size n=6. Those sample sare
called "sample points." Imagine that we write down the complete list of sample points.
This will be a list with 2.2x1019 rows and each row will contain 6 net weights of bags of
mortar. That complete list of possible sample points is called the sample space. (You
could call this the "sample space population.")
For each of the 2.2x1019 rows in the sample space, we can compute a sample
average. That is, each of the 2.2x1019 possible samples of size 6 yields its own its own
sample average, y . Imagine that we compute all 2.2x1019 sample averages and write
them down. The collection of sample averages is a daughter population; we call it the
population of sample averages. We use the symbol Y denote the population of sample
averages. The population distribution of that daughter population Y will have a Normal
distribution if the parent population has a Normal distribution.
We let the symbol Y denote the population average of the daughter population;
this is commonly termed the "grand average" to remind us that it is the overall average of a
population consisting of sample averages. We also use the symbol Y to denote the
population standard deviation of the daughter population.
The distribution of the daughter population is centered at the same value as that of
the parent population, which we write in symbols as Y = Y . This is due to the fact that
every element of the original population will occur in the same number of samples in the
daughter population.
We now reach a profound fact: the values in the daughter urn will be more closely
clustered around their population average than are those in the parent urn. We use the
population standard deviation to measure the tightness of the population around its center.
So, letting Y denote the population standard deviation of the daughter population, we are
saying that Y will be smaller than Y .
How much smaller? It turns out that it is smaller by a factor equal to the inverse of
the square root of the sample size, or 1/n. That is,

Y = Y .
n
Here, 1/n = 1/6 = 0.4082, so the bell-curved distribution of Y will be about 40% as
wide as the parent population, Y. In turn, to preserve the rule that all the probabilities must
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sum to one, then the height of the Y bell-curve will be 6 times the height of the Y bellcurve, almost two and a half times as tall.

Section 1.5
1.5.1 What does it mean with respect to the Quikrete data set to say that the sample average is
an unbiased estimator?
We are using y , the average of the particular sample we happened to get, as a point
estimator of Y . Obviously, the sample average we happened to get is extremely unlikely
to match the actual population average. But, it is natural to wonder if the daughter
population of sample averages is "on-target" or properly calibrated. Thinking of the
2.2x1019 possible sample averages as 2.2x1019 point estimates of Y , we see this collection
of point estimates is on-target since its grand average Y is equal to Y .
Thus, we say that the methodology we are using is unbiased because the daughter
population of sample averages is centered at the same value as the parent population. That
is, in symbols, Y = Y .
Section 1.6
1.6.1 Explain the meaning of a 95% confidence interval for Quikrete using the Story of Many
Possible Samples.
Each of the 2.2x1019 possible samples of size n=6 will generate its own 95%
confidence interval for Y . Thus, we can create a "grand-daughter" population of 95%
confidence intervals, one interval for each possible sample of six bags of mortar. Some
of those intervals will contain Y and some will not. It is our intention that 95% of the
intervals in that grand-daughter population will contain Y .

Section 1.7
1.7.1 Using the Quikrete data, above, perform a two-sided t-test with a null hypothesis claiming
is equal to 60 pounds. Do this task with a pocket calculator, showing all work.
(Fortunately, in question 1.2.1(a) you already computed the sample standard deviation and
the standard error of the sample mean, so the computations will be few.)
Explain your work as you go. For example, if y was close to o, would you reject the
null? Why divide the raw distance between the sample average and the claimed value of
by the standard error of the sample average.
Include a sketch of the relevant t-distribution showing the t-critical values, the t-statistic
(or "t-value"), the rejection regions, and the p-value.
The null hypothesis is that Y = 60, while the alternate hypothesis says Y 60. In symbols,
Ho: Y = 60
Ha: Y 60
Conceptually, we reject the null hypothesis if the sample average is far from 60 lbs, the value of
Y claimed by the null. Why? Because if the null hypothesis were true, then the sample
average we get will usually be close to 60. The difficulty is in determining what counts as
close and what counts as far. To make that determination, we standardize the raw distance
between the observed sample average and the claimed value of Y by dividing by a measure of
the variability of the population of sample averages. That measure is sample standard error of
the sample average, which is the ordinary sample standard deviation divided by the square root
of the sample size. The thought process is that the sample average comes from a daughter
distribution which has a substantially smaller population standard deviation than does the parent
population. Thus, the question of "how far" the sample average is from the claimed population
average needs to be answered with reference to that reduced variability.
The standardized distance is drawn from a t-distribution with n-1 degrees of freedom if
(a) the null hypothesis were true,
(b) the parent population has a Normal distribution, and
(c) the sample was drawn randomly.
We call that standardized measure a t-statistic rather than a "t-deviate" because dont know if
the null hypothesis is true or not; that is, we may well have subtracted the wrong value of Y , in
which case the t-statistic will not come from a t-distribution.
t-statistic = ( y - 60) / (s/n) = (60.1667- 60) / (3.8687 /6 ) = 0.11.
Where do the tails of the t-distribution with 5 d.f. start, using an alpha level of 5%? The
answer is the tails start at t=2.571. Since our observed t-statistic is 0.11, this value lies
firmly under the main body of the reference t-distribution, not in the tails, which argues
that the observed sample average was not far from the population average of net weights of
mortar bags claimed by the null hypothesis. Conclusion: the null hypothesis is not
rejected.
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Often, you will see the test conclusion written like this:
Reject the null if the t-statistic < -2.571 or if the t-statistic > 2.571. Since the tstatistic does not lie in the rejection region, do not reject the null hypothesis.

Using SAS to perform the t-test, we have the following results.

/*t-test on net weights of six bag of mortar, with labeled netwt 60 lbs.
Lawrence Tatum, 9/8/14 */
Data MortarWt;
Input NetWt;
Datalines;
54
60
63
61
58
65
;
Proc Ttest H0=60;
run;quit;
The SAS System
The TTEST Procedure
Variable:

NetWt

Mean

Std Dev

Std Err

Minimum

Maximum

60.1667

3.8687

1.5794

54.0000

65.0000

Mean
60.1667

95% CL Mean
56.1067

Std Dev

64.2266

3.8687

DF

t Value

Pr > |t|

0.11

0.9201

95% CL Std Dev

2.4149

9.4884

Section 1.8
1.8.1 Compute the 95% prediction interval for the Quikrete data.
y t/2 sy 1 (1/n)
= 60.1667 2.571 * 3.8687

1 (1/6)

= (49.42, 70.91) lbs.

1.8.2 What is this interval trying to capture? How is that different from a confidence interval?
The 95% prediction interval is given a range of values in which it is reasonable to think
that the net weight of the next randomly selected bag of mortar will fall. Basically, we are trying
estimate a range that covers 95% of the population distribution of the net weights of the 5000
bags in the parent population. Whereas, the 95% confidence interval is trying to capture the
population average of the parent population, the center of the underlying bell curve of the
population of net weights. We have a lot less uncertainty about where the population average
lies than we do as to where the next randomly drawn value from that population will fall.

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