This Weeks Highlights:

Asian EDC/VCM: EDC falls $15/mt in tandem with ethylene

Asian PVC: Falls $30-$50/mt

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INDEX:

Platts International Prices

Polymerupdate Indian Domestic Producer Price

Platts Polymer Shipping Costs (USD/MT)

Polymerupdate CIF India Prices

Polymerupdate Indian Open Market Price Table

Polymerupdate Indian Producer Posting Price Comparison

Currency Rates

Heard in PVC Market

Platts International Market Commentary & Analysis

Polymerupdate - PVC Market Supply Scenario

Platts Price Analysis Of PVC Chain Processing Margins

Crisil Research Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis

Point of Contact

Polymerupdate - About us & Copyright

Platts - About us & Copyright

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Week 34 August 26, 2015

x

POLYMERUPDATE

PLATTS INTERNATIONAL PRICES (USD/MT)

Product
India Crude basket:
Naphtha:

(USD/b)

(MOP West India)

Aug 19
(WK 33)

Aug 26
(WK 34)

48.00

42.56

- 05.44

414.78

344.58

- 70.20

INDIA DOMESTIC PRODUCER PRICE - RIL (Ex Hazira)

Price Change
on Week

Product

Suspension

CFR Far East Asia

289-291

274-276

- 15

CFR South East Asia

319-321

304-306

- 15

CFR Far East Asia

689-691

689-691

CFR South East Asia

729-731

719-721

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PVC :

MU

- 38

799-801

- 30

809-811

- 50

PVC Suspension CFR China

827-829

789-791

PVC Suspension CFR SEA

829-831

PVC Suspension CFR India

859-861

Specifications:
Cargoes of 100-500mt delivered 15-30 days forward from date of publication with up to 30 days credit, basis
CFR Far East Asia: China main ports (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Ningbo, Shantou, Hong Kong); CFR South East Asia: Indonesia (Jakarta,
Surabaya), Singapore, Philippines (Manila Bay), Malaysia (Port Kelang), Thailand (Bangkok, Laem Chabang, Map Ta Phut), Vietnam
(Ho Chi Minh). Platts prices reflect spot market values on the day of publication.
India Crude Import Basket Calculation: ( (Dubai + Oman) / 2 * 65.2% ) + (Dated Brent * 34.8%)
MOP West India : Mean of Platts FOB West India naphtha export price

China Domestic

(YUAN/MT EX-WORK)

Ethylene Based

5715-5735

5715-5735

Carbide Based

5340-5360

5340-5360

INR/KG

USD/MT

INR/KG

USD/MT

65.50

886

65.50

886

Price Change on Week

INR/KG

*Domestic Indian producer prices are quoted in INR/kg basic (Nett of all taxes) ; equivalent USD/MT price is
calculated at current US/INR rate. *Lot Size:
1 Truck Load (10 to 16 MT)
- Price assessments are based on information gathered from a cross section of the industry that includes resin
producers, processors, traders and distributors.
- Standard repeatable orders (based on confirmed market deals) form the basis of the prices.

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VCM :

Aug 26 (WK 34)

PVC Grade

EDC :

- 10

Aug 19 (WK 33)

PLATTS Polymer shipping costs (USD/MT)

From:

To:
East China
South China
India
Southeast Asia
NW Europe
Turkey
US Gulf
Latin America

Middle East
25 100 MT
20 25
15 25
45 50
30 35
55 65
50 70
130 140
165 175

Middle East
> 100 MT
10 15
10 15
30 40
25 30
50 60
40 60
120 130
160 165

NOTES:
Polymers refer to polyethylene, polypropylene, polystyrene, ABS, and PVC.
1) Middle East loadings refer to products coming from Jebel Ali (Dubai), Khalifa (Abu Dhabi), Jubail (Saudi Arabia), Shuaiba (Kuwait),
Rabigh (Saudi Arabia), Mesaieed (Qatar), Assaluyeh and Bandar Imam Khomeini (Iran) ports. The assessments are normalized between
these ports.
2) East China deliveries refer to products coming into Zhangjiagang, Shanghai, Jiangyin, Nantong, Ningbo, Nanjing, Zhenjiang ports.
3) South China deliveries refer to products coming into Shenzhen, Shantou, Hong Kong, Xiamen, Zhuhai ports.
4) India deliveries refer to products coming into Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai ports.
5) South East Asia deliveries refer to products coming into Indonesia (Jakarta, Surabaya), Singapore, Philippines (Manila Bay), Malaysia
(Port Kelang), Thailand (Bangkok), Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh) ports.
6) Northwest Europe deliveries refer to products coming into Antwerp port. Deliveries into Rotterdam and Amsterdam ports will be
normalized to Antwerp.
7) Turkey deliveries refer to products coming into Istanbul and Mersin ports.
8) US Gulf deliveries refer to products coming into Houston port. No deliveries from the Persian Gulf.
9) Latin America deliveries refer to products coming into mainports in Brazil, Chile, Uruguay.

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025

Week 34 August 26, 2015

POLYMERUPDATE (CIF INDIA PRICES)
CIF INDIA BY ORIGIN (Nhava Sheva Port)
South Korea
WK 33

WK 34

Aug 19

Aug 26

Suspension
Emulsion

Thailand
WK 33

WK 34

Aug 19

Aug 26

850

820

--

--

Price Change
on Week

860

830

- 30

1040

1040

Taiwan
WK 33

WK 34

Aug 19

Aug 26

860

830

- 30

--

1050

1050

Price Change on Week

- 30
--

Price Change on Week

- All prices are in USD/MT CIF India (Nhava Sheva)

- For South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Saudi Arabia :
Cargo size of 50-100mt delivered within 30 days.
- Price assessments are based on information gathered from a cross section of the industry that includes resin producers, processors, traders and distributors.
- Standard repeatable orders (based on confirmed market deals) form the basis of the prices.

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POLYMERUPDATE - Indian Open Market Price Table

Product
Ethylene Based PVC

Mumbai

Delhi

73 - 74

74 - 75

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Note: All prices are in INR/kg levels.

Kolkata

Bangalore

Indore

76 - 77

75 - 75.5

75.5 - 76.5

MU

Chennai
75 - 75.5
(Incl. of VAT)

Ahmedabad

Hyderabad

75 - 76

76 - 77

POLYMERUPDATE - INDIAN PRODUCER POSTING PRICE COMPARISON (GRADE WISE)

PVC SUSPENSION K-67 w.e.f 13 August-2015
Producer

Grade No.

*INR/MT

USD/MT

RIL

67GER01 (Ex-Gandhar)

65500

886

RIL

67.01 (Ex-Hazira)

65500

886

RIL

57GER01 (Ex-Gandhar)

67500

914

RIL

57.11 (Ex-Hazira)

67500

914

*Domestic Indian producer prices are quoted in INR/MT basic (Nett of all taxes) ; equivalent USD/MT price is calculated at current US/INR rate. *Lot Size:
1 Truck Load (10 to 16 MT)
- USD Price calculation: INR/MT Aprox. Clearing and Forwarding Charges / Basic Duty / Exchange Rate = USD/MT (For example: 82330 2500 / 1.075 / 54.24 = 1396)

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025

Week 34 August 26, 2015

Currency rates equivalent to 1 US Dollar :
Countries

Currency Rates

Countries

Currency Rates

Indian Rupees (INR)

66.17

Japan Yen (JPY)

Pakistan Rupees (PKR)

103.95

Indonesia Rupiahs (IDR)

14,097.92

China Yuan Renminb (CNY)

6.41

Malaysia Ringgits (MYR)

4.21

Bangladesh Taka (BDT)

77.72

Singapore Dollars (SGD)

1.40

Sri Lanka Rupees (LKR)

134.08

South Korea Won (KRW)

1187.95

Thailand Baht (THB)

35.50

Saudi Arabia Riyals (SAR)

3.75

Taiwan New Dollars (TWD)

32.58

United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED)

3.67

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Heard in PVC MARKET

Platts:

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Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard offered at $830/mt CFR India, L/C at sight, 1000 mt

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119.66

Polymerupdate:
25-8-2015: Taiwan producer offers PVC Suspension at $ 830/mt in India (CIF Nhava
Sheva port basis)

Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard offered at $840/mt CFR India, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard traded at $810/mt CFR India, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard offered at $850/mt CFR India, L/C 90, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard offered at $730/mt FAS Houston, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard offered at $800/mt CFR India, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard traded at $780/mt CFR Southeast Asia, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard traded at $800/mt CFR Southeast Asia, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard offered at $700-730/mt FAS Houston, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard traded at $770-780/mt CFR China, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard traded at $790/mt CFR China, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard offered at $800/mt CFR China, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: Domestic Chinese Ethylene-based PVC trade levels heard at Yuan 5,700-5,750/mt
Asian PVC: Domestic Chinese Carbide-based PVC trade levels heard at Yuan 5,300-5,400/mt

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025

Week 34 August 26, 2015

PLATTS INTERNATIONAL MARKET COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

Asian EDC/VCM: EDC falls $15/mt in tandem with ethylene

Asian PVC: Falls $30-$50/mt

- Spot EDC demand steady

- Offers lowered amid weak demand

- Thin activity across Asia

- VCM market quiet as buyers hold back

EDC: Asian ethylene dichloride was assessed down $15/mt week on week tracking falling
feedstock ethylene prices. The CFR Far East Asia marker was assessed at $275/mt Thursday and
the CFR Southeast Asia marker at $305/mt. No deals were heard concluded this week. Discussion
was active for October-arrival US Gulf-origin EDC, with buying interest around $220/mt CFR Far
East Asia against offers at $250-$260/mt CFR. In Southeast Asia, activity was thin, with no trades
confirmed. Downstream users were seeking cheaper EDC to help offset weak PVC prices in Asia.
The Asian ethylene market remained on a downtrend this week on the back of falling crude oil
prices. The CFR Northeast Asia ethylene marker was assessed at $919/mt Thursday, down
$60/mt week on week, and the CFR Southeast Asia marker at $895/mt, down $9/mt. Given an
ethylene conversion factor of 0.29, the breakeven cost for EDC makers was $267/mt in Northeast
Asia and $260/mt in Southeast Asia.

The CFR India PVC marker fell $50/mt week on week to be assessed at $810/mt Wednesday, after Taiwan's
Formosa Plastics responded to thin trading by lowering its September-loading offers into India by $30/mt to
$840/mt CFR India. Offers on a CFR China and FOB Taiwan basis were also lowered by $30/mt to $800/mt CFR
China and $770/mt FOB Taiwan, respectively, in line with market expectations of more competitive PVC prices
on the back of falling production costs. Offers in India were heard this week at $830-$840/mt, against bids
below $800/mt. A trade was heard for a September-loading cargo at $810/mt CFR India. Details were sketchy.
No offers were heard for Chinese carbide-based PVC. Trading was thin amid bearish sentiments, several sellers

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VCM: Asian vinyl chloride monomer prices were flat to lower this week amid weak PVC prices in
Asia. The CFR Far East Asia marker was assessed flat week on week at $690/mt and the CFR
Southeast Asia marker down $10/mt at $720/mt. Activity was thin amid tight spot availability in
the region. VCM spot negotiations typically occur after deals have been concluded for monthly
PVC offers, which were only released this week. Offers for September VCM cargoes were heard
this week around $700/mt CFR Far East Asia, with no trades confirmed. In Southeast Asia, a
September bid was heard below $700/mt CFR against offers at $730/mt CFR. No trades were
confirmed. PVC prices were assessed down $22-$35/mt at $828/mt CFR China, $830/mt CFR
Southeast Asia and $860/mt CFR India Wednesday.

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said. "Buyers are waiting in anticipation of lower PVC offers in line with declining feedstock costs," a source
said. Demand around Asia continued to be feeble for August amid the ongoing monsoons in India, deepening
economic slowdown in China and weakening currencies across Southeast Asia. The CFR China marker was
assessed at $790/mt, down $38/mt week on week. Deepsea offers from the US Gulf were into China at $700$730/mt FAS Houston this week, with no trades confirmed. The CFR Southeast Asia marker was assessed at

$800/mt Wednesday, down $30/mt week on week, with trades heard around that level. Both domestic China
ethylene-based PVC and carbide- based PVC were assessed flat week on week at Yuan 5,725/mt and Yuan
5,350 /mt, respectively. Upstream -- pulled down by the weakness in crude and naphtha -- spot ethylene prices
declined by around $96/mt week on week, with the CFR Northeast Asia assessed at $849/mt Wednesday. In
data out this week, China imported 49,463 mt of PVC in July, down 12.57% from June. PVC exports from China
rose to 62,185 mt in July, a 19.41% increase from June, but down 55.62% on the year, according to the latest
General Administration of Customs data.

RATIONALE:
EDC: Assessed down $15/mt week on week at $275/mt CFR Far East Asia Thursday. Octoberarrival deepsea cargoes from the US Gulf were heard offered at $250-$260/mt CFR Far East Asia
against buying intentions around $220/mt CFR. The CFR Southeast Asia marker was assessed
down $15/mt at $305/mt in tandem with the Far East Asia market.

RATIONALE:

VCM: Assessed flat week on week at $690/mt CFR Far East Asia Thursday. Offers for September
cargoes were heard around $700/mt CFR Far East Asia, with no trades confirmed. The CFR
Southeast Asia marker was assessed down $10/mt at $720/mt. A September bid was heard
below $700/mt CFR Southeast Asia against offers at $730/mt CFR. No trades were confirmed.

week, or around $770-$800/mt CFR China, with no trades confirmed. The CFR Southeast Asia marker was

The CFR India marker was assessed at $810/mt Wednesday, down $50/mt week on week. Offers in India were
heard this week at $830-$840/mt, against bids below $800/mt. A trade was heard for a September-loading
cargo at $810/mt CFR India, Details were sketchy. The CFR China marker was assessed at $790/mt, down
$38/mt week on week. Deepsea offers from US Gulf into China were heard at $700-$730/mt FAS Houston this
assessed at $800/mt Wednesday, down $30/mt week on week, with trades heard around that level. Both
domestic China ethylene-based PVC and carbide-based PVC were assessed flat at Yuan 5,725/mt and Yuan
5,350/mt, respectively, unchanged week on week.

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025

Week 34 August 26, 2015

POLYMERUPDATE - PVC MARKET SUPPLY SCENARIO

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VCM plant restarted by

Taiwan VCM
Taiwan
VCM
resumed
operations at vinyl chloride
monomer (VCM) plant. The
plant resumed operation in
early August 2015. The
plant was shut on July 9,
2015
for
maintenance
turnaround. The company
is currently operating its
plant at normal production
capacity levels. Located in
Lin Yuan, Taiwan, the VCM
plant has a capacity of
420,000 mt/year.
PVC plant to be shut by
Taiyo
Vinyl
for
maintenance
Taiyo Vinyl is likely to shut
its polyvinyl chloride (PVC)
plant. The plant is planned
to be shut next week. The
plant is expected to remain
shut for around one month.
Located in Chiba, Japan,
the PVC plant has a
production
capacity
of
100,000 mt/year.

E-PVC plant likely to be taken off-stream by Inner Mongolia Yidong

Inner Mongolia Yidong Group Dongxing Chemical is in plans to shut an emulsion-polyvinyl chloride (E-PVC) plant for maintenance turnaround. The plant is likely to be taken off-stream in November 2015. Located at
Erdos in Inner Mongolia, China, the plant has a production capacity of 100,000 mt/year.

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025

Week 34 August 26, 2015

PLATTS Price Analysis of PVC Chain Processing Margins

Naphtha to Ethylene

Naphtha to PVC

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Typical North East Asian $/mt margin for producing ethylene

from naphtha using a conversion cost of $350/mt

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Ethylene to PVC

Premium or discount of CFR FE Asia PVC prices over naphtha

PVC : VCM Ratio

Premium or discount of CFR FE Asia PVC prices compared to ethylene

CFR FE Asia PVC prices as a ratio to VCM

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025

Week 34 August 26, 2015

CRISIL Research Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis

Overview: Counting the missing drops by DRIP

As we approach the end of this monsoon, the IMD appears set to be vindicated on its 12% rain deficiency call. From a
surplus in June, rainfall was down to 6% below the long period average as of July 31, falling further to 10% by August 16.
Distribution too has been short of normal, in terms of both time and geography.Not all is bad though, and progress on
sowing offers hope. Bountiful rains in June in several parts of India ensured sowing till August 14 was 3% higher than last
year and only 1% below normal. The good news is that the area under pulses - currently witnessing high inflation - is 12%
more than last year and also more than the normal. The next 45 days are crucial for ensuring reasonable yields for crops
that have been sown as more than half of the arable land in India is unirrigated and therefore remains vulnerable to
monsoon shocks. The mention of shock and vulnerability brings us to CRISIL's DRIP (Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter)
which captures the interaction between vulnerability and weather shocks. DRIP, developed in the drought year of 2002,
helps identify crops and regions hurt more by weak rains. On the basis of rainfall till August 12, DRIP highlights Bihar,
Karnataka, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Odisha as the most adversely impacted states this year. Coarse cereals,
soyabean, tur, maize and cotton are crops hit the most by monsoon deficiency this year. We maintain our overall GDP
growth forecast of 7.4% for fiscal 2016 with agriculture growing at a sub-trend rate of 1.5% on a weak base of last fiscal.
IMD expects the second half of the monsoon season to beworse than the first. Any positive surprise on rainfall over the next
45 days can create some upside to ourgrowth outlook.

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IIP: Indicates industry growth on the positive

As expected, IIP growth picked up to 3.8% in June from 2.5% (revised down from 2.7%) in May. Overall growth was
supported by manufacturing activity (at 4.6% versus 2.0% in May). Other components, both mining & quarrying (-0.3%)
and electricity (1.3%), recorded softer growth. Month-on-month SA (seasonally-adjusted based on Tramo method) growth,
though, contracted 0.2% in June while the manufacturing sector signalled positive streaks - rising 0.2% on m-o-m basis.
Manufacturing index gained steam with a pick-up in consumer-oriented sectors such as textiles (1.1%), tobacco products
(8.7%), wearing apparel (27.6%), wood products (21%), and furniture. On the other hand, industrial- and investmentoriented sectors recorded slightly lower growth at 3.3% versus 4.2% in May.

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025

Week 34 August 26, 2015

Inflation drops in July
Consumer price inflation (CPI) fell to 3.8% in July from 5.4% in June. The sharp fall was mainly due to a strong base effect. In July
last year, a surge in fruits and vegetable prices had pushed the overall CPI index up 2.1% month-on-month (m-o-m) and 7.4% yearon-year (y-o-y). If not for this category, inflation this July would have fallen by only 60 bps. The decline in inflation came from the
food price index, while fuel inflation also softened due to lower global oil (-48% y-o-y) and commodity prices (steel was down 31%
and aluminium was down 16%). The food price index fell to 2.2% in July from 5.5% in June. Within the food index, fruits &
vegetables inflation was -5.3%, but other commodities including cereals and most protein-related items - milk, eggs, meat and fish
and, oils and fats - too saw a decline. The only commodity where prices remained firm was pulses - where inflation rose to 22.9% in
July from 22.2% in June. Core inflation fell to 4.8% in July, down 40 bps over June - its first decline in five months. Much of this fall
came from lower inflation in personal care effects, education and transport and communication segments. Excluding the transport
and communication segments, which includes petrol and diesel prices, core inflation was down about 10 bps.

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Rupee strengthens slightly in July

The rupee gained against most major currencies on a monthly average basis in July. It averaged 63.6/$, slightly strongerthan 63.9/$ in
June. Against the euro and the pound, it was up 2.2% and 0.3%, respectively.The local currency, however, remained choppy during the
month. In the first three weeks of July, it averaged 63.5/$, andweakened to 64/$ in the last week. Supporting a strong rupee in the first
half were positive developments in Greece,which reduced jitters over a possible default in debt obligations and led to investors purchasing
emerging market assets.Towards the end of the month, rupee lost some ground due to persistent dollar demand from importers and
banks.

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About CRISIL Research

CRISIL Research is India's largest independent and integrated research house. We provide insights, opinions, and analysis on the Indian economy, industries, capital markets and companies. We are India's most credible
provider of economy and industry research. Our industry research covers 70 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. Our analysis is supported by inputs from our network of more than 4,500 primary
sources, including industry experts, industry associations, and trade channels. We play a key role in India's fixed income markets. We are India's largest provider of valuations of fixed income securities, serving the mutual
fund, insurance, and banking industries. We are the sole provider of debt and hybrid indices to India's mutual fund and life insurance industries. We pioneered independent equity research in India, and are today India's largest
independent equity research house. Our defining trait is the ability to convert information and data into expert judgements and forecasts with complete objectivity. We leverage our deep understanding of the macroeconomy
and our extensive sector coverage to provide unique insights on micro-macro and cross-sectoral linkages. We deliver our research through an innovative web-based research platform. Our talent pool comprises economists,
sector experts, company analysts, and information management specialists.

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Week 34 August 26, 2015

POLYMERUPDATE

PLATTS

Editorial Contact:

Global Editorial Director, Petrochemicals: Simon Thorne

Director, Editorial: Jwalant Oza

Managing Editor: Prema Viswanathan

Senior Editors: Harsh Nadkarni, Feroz Khan

Singapore Editors: Gustav Holmvik, Ng Bao Ying, Michelle Kim, Heng Hui, Genevieve Soong,
Maithreyi Ramdas, Pamela Sumayao, Jennifer Lee

Sales Contact:
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Tokyo Editors: Fumiko Dobashi, Anton Ferkov

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products including Crude oil, Naphtha, Aromatics, Olefins, Polyolefins and Petrochemical Intermediates.

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Credible, neutral and regular reporting has attracted over a thousand subscribers who include most of the regions leading resin producers, processors, distributors, traders, consultant firms, investment bankers, credit rating
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