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Here in the Dryad Ops Room, we will continue to monitor developments around the clock, supporting our
clients with the latest analysis and advice on mitigating risk in what is an increasingly complex maritime
environment. With Decisive Storm naval forces mixing with an increasing number of other international
navies involved in combat and evacuation ops respectively, all vessels would be well advised to give
Yemen as wide a berth as possible. Not so easy in the Bab el Mandeb, but proper planning, good
situational awareness and a pragmatic and compliant approach to naval forces in the waters around
Yemen should mean that transits can continue unhindered. As for trading in Yemen, just remember the
phrase, No port in a decisive storm!
Source: Dryad Maritime
analysis capabilities of the new system mean that the range of engine and fuel information provided can
be adapted to meet individual operator needs as their requirements change and develop.
New investment in the improved hardware and software associated with the new system has been
accompanied by an expanded Enginei team within Royston to provide the necessary installation, data
analysis and technical support required by an expanding customer base across all marine sectors. The
upgraded Enginei integrated fuel management system is compatible with all marine engine types and can
be interfaced with new-build engine installations or retrofitted to operating vessels. Royston is a dynamic
and expanding diesel engine supply, service and repair company that has operated successfully within the
global marine and offshore market for more than 30 years. With bases in the UK and Perth, Western
Australia, the company has gained an excellent reputation in the marine industry by offering customers
comprehensive drydock and onboard engine repair and maintenance services as an affordable alternative
to the OEMs.
Source: Royston
Although it is not clear locally whether it is Ebola-related or just a problem of available water draft, we
have been advised that the night curfew in port has been reinstated, preventing any arrival or departure of
vessels between 18:00 and 05:00. Apart from that, the situation remains unchanged in terms of in-port
sanitary measures to be taken prior to boarding vessels. No change either in terms of international airline
service restrictions for the Freetown airport.
3. Liberia
3.1 Status of the epidemics:
Liberia had sought to be declared officially free from Ebola a month ago and on 22 February 2015 the
night curfew was lifted and the Government had ordered the reopening of the inland borders. However a
(so far hopefully) isolated case was diagnosed on 20 March 2015 and the patient passed away on 28
March 2015. Two more suspected cases are currently under quarantine, and 80 persons having been in the
proximity of the deceased will remain under close medical watch. It will take some more time before
Liberia can again seek to be declared officially free of the virus outbreak.
3.2 Situation in port and airport
The situation remains unchanged in terms of in-port sanitary measures to be taken prior to boarding
vessels. Monrovia airport: Air Cote DIvoire (to Ivory Coast) and Arik Air (to Ghana) are now back in
service at the Monrovia airport, along with Royal Air Maroc, Brussels Airlines and Kenyan Airways.
Crew health and safety The 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa was the first large scale virus epidemic
that shipping had to tackle this century and was a timely reminder that the risks of disease and the
impact on shipping are as serious and real in the 21st century as they have been in previous ages.
On the frontline are the crews of vessels that may call at ports of countries experiencing disease
outbreaks. With the proper training, provision of protective equipment / supplies, as well as diligent shore
side support vessels can keep themselves safe. To date there has been no confirmed case of any seafarer
contracting the virus as a consequence of sailing on a vessel calling at the ports of countries experiencing
outbreaks. There have, however, been a number of cases of Malaria that were misidentified as Ebola, and
which led to significant complications in ensuring that the correct treatment was applied quickly and that
ill crew were permitted to be disembarked at the ports of third countries for treatment.
While the present outbreak continues, overall, to abate it is too soon to declare the situation as presenting
no further risk. It would also be imprudent to stop prioritising crew health and safety, and some of the
most basic advice concerning personal hygiene and personal safety during port calls should continue to be
reinforced regularly both during training as well as on board the vessel. Further reading The Association
has advised in detail on many aspects and issues that arose from the Ebola outbreak in West Africa last
year. For more information on diseases, viruses and illness that may impact on crews, members are
referred to the Skuld resource about diseases. For vessel specific enquiries, members are asked to contact
their usual Skuld business unit.
Source: Skuld
Early results of Manpower surveys: most seafarers content with life at sea
BIMCO / ICS Manpower Report 2015: preliminary results of new seafarer survey shows majority are
content with life at sea A new survey being carried out as part of the BIMCO/ICS Manpower Report 2015
is directly engaging seafarers in order to understand their views on life at sea and outlook for the
industrys manpower in the years ahead. Preliminary results of the new survey indicate that the majority
of respondents are content with life at sea. The BIMCO/ICS Manpower Report, which has been published
every five years since 1990, has traditionally been based on two main quantitative data sources from
which the current seafarer supply and demand situation is estimated: a questionnaire completed by
shipping companies and a questionnaire completed by national maritime administrations. In addition to
those sources, the new Manpower Report will also solicit the opinions from a wider number of maritime
professionals with knowledge of the sharp end of the manpower supply situation, including seafarers,
lecturers at maritime education and training (MET) institutions, manning agents, maritime unions, and
port welfare workers. The survey of seafarers is the first of the targeted surveys for this years report.
More than 500 seafarers have already responded to the survey, representing over 40 nationalities. Some of
the other preliminary findings include:
Happy ships, timely wage payments and career promotion opportunities were the most popular
responses indicated when seafarers were asked about the important factors that influenced their decisions
to stay with their current employers; 66% of the seafarers that responded estimated that it would take
them less than three months to secure another job in the industry if they chose to leave their current
company; and basic pay and internet access were the most popular responses provided as improvements
in conditions at sea when asked about changes within the last two years.
Having provided seafarers with an opportunity to provide insight on the seafaring career, one of the trends
that resonated in the responses was the importance and value of the training and skills that come with
being a maritime professional: Life at sea is exciting, challenging and very educational. The skills that
anyone can receive from this job cannot be compared to anything else ashore. The survey also points
towards the impact that increased regulation of the industry has had on the seafaring profession. One
seafarer responded: This is a great career, but an increasingly technical and administrative one so it is no
longer as much an adventure as simply a job, albeit one with the possibility of adventure! The rich
qualitative opinions that accompany the responses will supplement and augment the analysis in the final
Manpower Report.
In reviewing some of the preliminary results, Mr Aron Srensen, Chief Marine Technical Officer at
BIMCO, said: This survey has provided us with insight into the views of seafarers today. Understanding
the key issues for seafarers is especially valuable when attracting and recruiting talented young people to
the shipping industry. With preparations of the Manpower Report 2015 continuing apace, Natalie Shaw,
Director of Employment Affairs at ICS, said: We have just launched a second of the new series of
surveys, targeting lecturers at maritime education and training institutions. We look forward to gathering
information and views from those at the forefront of maritime training which will be used to enrich the
2015 Manpower Report. The survey for lecturers at maritime education and training (MET) institutions
can be found online at: http://www.maritimemanpower.com/questionnaire-overview/met-questionnaire-2/.
The survey explores the status of the current recruitment and training intake, training standards, training
techniques, and implementation of the latest amendments to the STCW Convention.
Source: BIMCO
Wet
get into the market. Oil also found support from tension in the Middle East, where fighting is continuing
in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Yemens liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant said on Tuesday it declared force majeure due to deteriorating
security and halted all production. Yemen is a small oil producer, pumping only around 130,000 bpd of
crude in recent months, but analysts fear its civil war could destabilise its northern neighbour, Saudi
Arabia. Geopolitical risk in oil markets remains elevated, JP Morgan analysts said in a note. From a
fundamental perspective however, supply from the Middle East is expected to remain high, with Saudi
Arabia and Iraqi production on the rise.
In Asia, China exported 750,000 tonnes of crude oil in March, its largest volume since 2006, in a possible
sign the worlds second largest crude importer is running out of storage capacity. Analysts also said that
Chinas demand growth would likely slow further. With Chinas Q1 GDP figures about to be released
tomorrow, we see very little upside even if prices move up today, Singapore-based brokerage Phillip
Futures said. Chinas economy is growing at its slowest pace in 25 years and its export sales contracted 15
percent in March, deepening concern over Chinese economic growth.
Source: Reuters (Additional reporting by Henning Gloystein in Singapore; Editing by Crispian Balmer)
Despite major cost reduction measures, Q1 2015 earnings for supermajors are expected to be the weakest
in recent memory. Operational and financial indicators for FY 2014, however, reveal that recent
performance amongst the big 5 has been far from homogeneous. In short, the Americans outperformed the
Europeans. Exxon and Chevron posted high net margins of 8.3% and 9.1%, respectively. Shells was a
more modest 3.5%, whilst BP (1.1%) and Total (2.0%) struggled badly. Chevron and Total were the most
aggressive risk takers, as their CAPEX-to-Sales ratios for the year stood at 19% and 14%, respectively,
while the other majors conservatively avoided spending more than 10% of sales. Among other factors,
refining interests are a key driver of this disparate performance. While Exxon, Chevron and Shell refined
broadly as many barrels as they extracted in 2014 (113%, 105% and 94%, respectively), BP and Total
were much more exposed to upstream (55%, 83%) and have not benefitted from the traditional buffer
effect of downstream activities in a low price environment.
Looking at the long-term indicators, not much change can be seen in the 2014 Proved Reserves-toProduction ratio XOM 17.4, CVX 11.8, RDS 11.6, BP 15.2, TTA 14.7 (expressed in years). In an
oversupplied market, the challenge is not to bring volumes, but value. In this respect, the Europeans
looked to offset poor performance by building strong net cash positions between $20-30 billion at yearend 2014 to maintain dividends and shareholder confidence. However, while Exxon, Chevron and Shell
managed to keep their Gross Debt-to-Equity ratio at around 20%, BP and Total ended the year with a
degraded financial structure, at 47% and 62%, respectively.
Considering the above, Shell seems to be the healthiest among the European majors, but crucially lacking
in long-term organic growth opportunities. In this light, the 47bn takeover of BG Group makes sense: it
will boost Shells production by 20% and reserves by 25%, and also provides exposure to high-potential
Brazilian assets. With similarly modest leverage and potential for quick cash generation, Exxon and
Chevron are well positioned for their own M&A moves now the starting gun has sounded.
Source: Douglas-Westwood
North American Oil Federation Could De-Throne OPEC As Worlds Price Manipulator
Three North American oil producing nations should combine resources and form a coalition that could
rival OPEC as a dominant market force, says Chris Faulkner, Chairman and CEO of Breitling Energy
Corporation (OTCBB:BECC). Canada, Mexico and the United States currently produce approximately 15
million barrels of oil per day combined. Faulkner believes if the three countries created a united oil
federation, it could lead to North American energy independence and create a market stabilizing force that
might potentially dethrone OPEC as the worlds defacto price manipulator.
Canada has the third largest reserves in the world and Mexico fully realizes its potential, both on and
offshore. Combine that with the explosion of shale oil in the United States and we have a powerful force
that could stand up to OPEC and say, Youre not the bully on the corner any more, says Faulkner
Faulkner foresees such a coalition sharing technology, information, production and infrastructure,
including pipelines such as the stalled Keystone XL, which became a political and environmental football
with the current administration. We need true leadership in America to make this happen, and we have
already peaked some interest among wise leaders in Washington who understand what this could mean,
Faulkner says. It will take time and a change of administration, but this would be good for North
America and the rest of the world going forward. Its time to start talking about it, Faulkner added.
Global demand for OPEC oil is approximately 29 million barrels per day, yet the cartel still defiantly
produces just over 30 million barrels per day. In March, Saudi Arabia is believed to have further increased
its output to 10.3 million barrels per day, the highest in 12 years.
Canada has one of the worlds largest reserves and is our closest ally. President Pena Nieto is
strategically positioning Mexico to be a dominant producer of the next decade. With Americas know-how
and leadership, we could generate almost as much oil as OPEC and completely change the balance of
power, Faulkner observes. If you like paying less than $3.00 per gallon for gasoline, this is the best way
to insure were not subject to being whipsawed around because of OPECs distemper. Faulkner plans to
continue developing his plan with willing lawmakers, while educating the public through awareness
campaigns. Faulkners plan drew favorable attention from television and radio stations nationwide this
week as part of a satellite media tour he conducted from New York City.
Source: Breitling Energy Corporation
Market awaits assay on Iraqs Basrah Heavy crude despite publication of OSP
Traders are awaiting information about the quality of Iraqs new Basrah Heavy crude grade, despite the
release of a new official selling price for the grade for May. Iraqs crude oil marketing organization
SOMO issued fresh OSPs for its crude oil grades loading in May on Sunday, including the first-ever
official selling price for its Basrah Heavy crude grade, due to load from the countrys southern export
terminals in conjunction with the more traditional Basrah Light crude.
For cargoes destined for Europe, the price of the newer grade has been set at Dated Brent minus
$8.45/barrel, a $3.45/b discount to Basrah Light at $5/b. But market sources said the lack of information
about the quality of the grade its density, sulfur content and product yield has limited the interest
from European end-users for May cargoes.
[Refiners] have asked them to give an indication of the API to show an interest in buying it, but [SOMO]
hasnt given out that information, so [they havent] been all that inspired to buy it, a crude trader said.
It really depends on the API, another trader said. If the API is 22 degrees, than [the OSP] is not good.
If the API is closer to 24 or 25 degrees, it might be okay. Sixty cents does not cover the loss in quality of
one API degree. It is one thing to get an OSP, a crude trader said. It is another to know what youre
buying.
Source: Platts