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This Week’s Highlights: Asian Propylene: Down $25-34/mt on week on lower buy-sell indications Asian PP:
This Week’s Highlights: Asian Propylene: Down $25-34/mt on week on lower buy-sell indications Asian PP:

This Week’s Highlights:

Asian Propylene: Down $25-34/mt on week on lower buy-sell indications

Asian PP: Falls $5-$12/mt amid weakening sentiment

INDEX:

Platts International Prices

Polymerupdate Indian Domestic Producer Price

Platts Polymer Shipping Costs (USD/MT)

Polymerupdate CIF India Prices

Polymerupdate Indian Open Market Price Table

Polymerupdate Indian Producer Posting Price Comparison

Heard in PP Market Currency Rates Platts International Market Commentary & Analysis Polymerupdate - PP Market Supply Scenario Platts Price Analysis Of PP Chain Processing Margins Crisil Research – Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis Point of Contact

Polymerupdate - About us & Copyright Platts - About us & Copyright

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PLATTS INTERNATIONAL PRICES (USD/MT)   May 20 May 27 Price Change Product (WK 20) (WK

PLATTS INTERNATIONAL PRICES (USD/MT)

 

May 20

May 27

Price Change

Product

(WK 20)

(WK 21)

on Week

India Crude basket: (USD/b)

62.72

62.27

-0.45

Naphtha:

(MOP West India)

545.43

537.05

-8.38

Propylene :

 

FOB Korea

964-966

934-936

- 30

CFR China

1019-1021

994-996

- 25

CFR South East Asia

969-971

939-941

- 30

Poly propylene :

 

PP Injection South Asia

1379-1381

1367-1369

- 12

PP Injection Far East Asia

1259-1261

1254-1256

- 05

PP Injection South East Asia

1354-1356

1344-1346

- 10

PP Raffia South Asia

1379-1381

1367-1369

- 12

PP Raffia Far East Asia

1269-1271

1264-1266

- 05

PP Raffia South East Asia

1354-1356

1344-1346

- 10

PP IPP Film South Asia

1409-1411

1397-1399

- 12

PP IPP Film Far East Asia

1289-1291

1284-1286

- 05

PP IPP Film South East Asia

1369-1371

1359-1361

- 10

PP Copolymer South Asia

1424-1426

1412-1414

- 12

PP Copolymer Far East Asia

1319-1321

1314-1316

- 05

PP Copolymer South East Asia

1399-1401

1394-1396

- 05

PP BOPP South Asia

1394-1396

1382-1384

- 12

PP BOPP Far East Asia

1284-1286

1279-1281

- 05

PP BOPP South East Asia

1364-1366

1354-1356

- 10

China Domestic (YUAN/MT EX-WORK) :

 

PP Raffia

8930-8970

9080-9120

+ 150

Week 21 – May 27, 2015

POLYMERUPDATE INDIAN DOMESTIC PRODUCER PRICE – RIL (Ex-Hazira)

INDIA DOMESTIC PRODUCER PRICE - RIL (Ex Hazira)

 
 

May 20 (WK 20)

 

May 27 (WK 21)

Price Change on Week

Product

INR/KG

USD/MT

INR/KG

USD/MT

INR/KG

PP Grade

   
 

Raffia

101.73

1444

 

101.73

1444

0

Injection

100.77

1430

 

100.77

1430

0

TQ Film

     

Homopolymer

103.97

1476

103.97

1476

0

Block Copolymer

103.86

1475

 

103.86

1475

0

Random Copolymer

106.39

1512

 

106.39

1512

0

BOPP Homopolymer

105.60

1500

 

105.60

1500

0

*Domestic Indian producer prices are quoted in INR/kg basic (Nett of all taxes); equivalent USD/MT

price is calculated at current US/INR rate. *Lot Size: 1 Truck Load (10 to 16 MT)

price is calculated at current US/INR rate. *Lot Size: 1 Truck Load (10 to 16 MT)

-

Price assessments are based on information gathered from a cross section of the industry that includes

resin producers, processors, traders and distributors.

 

-

Standard repeatable orders (based on confirmed market deals) form the basis of the prices.

PLATTS INTERNATIONAL PRICES

Specifications: Cargoes of 100-500mt delivered 15-30 days forward from date of publication with up to

Specifications: Cargoes of 100-500mt delivered 15-30 days forward from date of publication with up to 30 days credit, basis CFR Far East Asia: China main ports (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Ningbo, Shantou, Hong Kong); CFR South East Asia: Indonesia (Jakarta, Surabaya), Singapore, Philippines (Manila Bay), Malaysia (Port Kelang), Thailand (Bangkok, Laem Chabang, Map Ta Phut), Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh). Platts prices reflect spot market values on the day of publication.

India Crude Import Basket Calculation: ( (Dubai + Oman) / 2 * 65.2% ) + (Dated Brent * 34.8%) MOP West India : Mean of Platts FOB West India naphtha export price

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400013, INDIA | Email: info@polymerupdate.com | Tel: +912261772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +912261772025

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Week 21 – May 27, 2015 PLATTS – Polymer shipping costs (USD/MT) From: Middle East

Week 21 – May 27, 2015

PLATTS – Polymer shipping costs (USD/MT)

From:

Middle East

Middle East

To:

25 – 100 MT

> 100 MT

East China

20

– 25

10

– 15

South China

15

– 25

10

– 15

India

45

– 50

30

– 40

Southeast Asia

30

– 35

25

– 30

NW Europe

55

– 65

50

– 60

Turkey

50

– 70

40

– 60

US Gulf

130

– 140

120

– 130

Latin America

165

– 175

160

– 165

NOTES:

Polymers refer to Polyethylene, Polypropylene, Polystyrene, ABS, and PVC. 1) Middle East loadings refer to products coming from Jebel Ali (Dubai), Khalifa (Abu Dhabi), Jubail (Saudi Arabia), Shuaiba (Kuwait), Rabigh (Saudi Arabia), Mesaieed (Qatar), Assaluyeh and Bandar Imam Khomeini (Iran) ports. The assessments are normalized between these ports. 2) East China deliveries refer to products coming into Zhangjiagang, Shanghai, Jiangyin, Nantong, Ningbo, Nanjing, Zhenjiang ports. 3) South China deliveries refer to products coming into Shenzhen, Shantou, Hong Kong, Xiamen, Zhuhai ports. 4) India deliveries refer to products coming into Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai ports. 5) South East Asia deliveries refer to products coming into Indonesia (Jakarta, Surabaya), Singapore, Philippines (Manila Bay), Malaysia (Port Kelang), Thailand (Bangkok), Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh) ports. 6) Northwest Europe deliveries refer to products coming into Antwerp port. Deliveries into Rotterdam and Amsterdam ports will be normalized to Antwerp. 7) Turkey deliveries refer to products coming into Istanbul and Mersin ports. 8) US Gulf deliveries refer to products coming into Houston port. No deliveries from the Persian Gulf. 9) Latin America deliveries refer to products coming into main ports in Brazil, Chile, Uruguay.

POLYMERUPDATE

(CIF INDIA PRICES)

 
   

CIF INDIA BY ORIGIN (Nhava Sheva Port)

 
 

South Korea

   

Singapore

 

Thailand

 

Saudi Arabia

 

WK 20

WK 21

Price Change

WK 20

WK 21

Price Change

WK 20

WK 21

Price Change

WK 20

WK 21

Price Change

PP Grade

May 20

May 27

on Week

May 20

May 27

on Week

May 20

May 27

on Week

May 20

May 27

on Week

Raffia

1420

1410

- 10

1410

1390

- 20

 

1430

1400

- 30

1390

1360

- 30

Injection

1420

1410

- 10

1410

1390

- 20

 

1430

1400

- 30

1390

1360

- 30

TQ Film Homopolymer

1430

1420

- 20

1420

1400

- 20

 

1440

1420

- 20

1400

1380

- 20

Block Copolymer

1440

1430

- 20

1430

1420

- 10

 

1420

1410

- 10

--

--

--

--

Random Copolymer

1460

1450

- 10

1450

1440

- 10

 

1450

1430

- 20

--

--

--

--

BOPP Homopolymer

1410

1400

- 10

1400

1375

- 25

 

1420

1400

- 20

--

--

--

--

- All prices are in USD/MT CIF India (Nhava Sheva)

- For South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Saudi Arabia :

Sheva) - For South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Saudi Arabia : Cargo size of 50-100mt delivered

Cargo size of 50-100mt delivered within 30 days.

 

- Price assessments are based on information gathered from a cross section of the industry that includes resin producers, processors, traders and distributors.

 

- Standard repeatable orders (based on confirmed market deals) form the basis of the prices.

 

POLYMERUPDATE - Indian Open Market Price Table

 

Note: All prices are in INR/kg levels.

Product

Mumbai

Delhi

Kolkatta

Banglore

Indore

Chennai

Ahmedabad

Rajasthan

Kanpur

Hyderabad

Punjab

Kerala

PP Raffia

113 – 113.5

112

- 113

117

- 117.5

114

- 115

121

- 122

113.5 - 114.5

121

- 122

-

-

116

- 117

120

- 121

 

-

PP Film

117 - 118

115

- 116

121

-121.5

 

-

128

- 129

120

- 121

119

- 120

118 - 119

123.5 - 124

119

- 120

122

- 123

117.5

- 118

PP Injection

112.5 – 113

112

- 113

117

- 117.5

108

- 109

120

- 121

115

- 116

118

- 119

114 - 114.5

123 - 124.5

117.5 - 118.5

119 - 119.5

116.5

- 117

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400013, INDIA | Email: info@polymerupdate.com | Tel: +912261772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +912261772025

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Week 21 – May 27, 2015 POLYMERUPDATE - INDIAN PRODUCER POSTING PRICE COMPARISON (GRADE WISE)

Week 21 – May 27, 2015

POLYMERUPDATE - INDIAN PRODUCER POSTING PRICE COMPARISON (GRADE WISE) w.e.f 14-May-2015

 

BOPP

   

INJECTION MOULDING (MFI 8-11)

 

Producer

Grade No.

*INR/MT

USD/MT

Producer

Grade No.

*INR/MT

USD/MT

RIL (Ex-Hazira)

H029SG/H035SG

105600

1500

RIL (Ex Works – BC/NC)

AM120N

99230

1407

HALDIA (Ex-Works)

F103

107700

1531

RIL (Ex-Hazira)

H110MA

100770

1430

 

HALDIA (Ex-Works)

M110

102000

1448

 

FIBRE FILAMENTS

   

Producer

Grade No.

*INR/MT

USD/MT

 

RANDOM COPOLYMER

 

RIL (Ex-Hazira)

H350FG/H200FG

104080

1478

Producer

Grade No.

*INR/MT

USD/MT

       
 

RIL (Ex-Hazira)

R019MZ

106390

1512

 

IMPACT COPOLYMER

   
   

RAFFIA

 

Producer

Grade No.

*INR/MT

USD/MT

Producer

Grade No.

*INR/MT

USD/MT

RIL (Ex Works – BC/NC)

MI3535

107930

1534

RIL (Ex Works – BC/NC)

SS35N

101040

1434

RIL (Ex-Hazira)

B030MG/B120MA

103860

1475

RIL (Ex-Hazira)

H030SG

101730

1444

HALDIA (Ex-Works)

     

M304

108000

1535

HALDIA (Ex-Works)

R103

109100

1551

 
 

INJECTION MOULDING (MFI - 3)

   

TQ FILM

 

Producer

Grade No.

*INR/MT

USD/MT

Producer

Grade No.

*INR/MT

USD/MT

RIL (Ex-Hazira)

H033MG

101230

1437

RIL (Ex-Hazira)

H100EY

103970

1476

HALDIA (Ex-Works)

M103

104600

1486

HALDIA (Ex-Works)

F110

105800

1503

*Domestic Indian producer prices are quoted in INR/MT basic (Nett of all taxes); equivalent USD/MT price is calculated at current US/INR rate. *Lot Size:

- Ex Works: BC/NC = Ex Works Baroda Complex / Nagothane Complex

- Product Key: BOPP = Biaxially-Oriented Polypropylene, MFI = Melt Flow Index,

- USD Price calculation: INR/MT – Aprox. Clearing and Forwarding charges / Basic Duty / Exchange Rate = USD/MT

Forwarding charges / Basic Duty / Exchange Rate = USD/MT 1 Truck Load (10 to 16

1 Truck Load (10 to 16 MT)

|

Ex Works: HC = Halidia Complex

|

Ex Works: M/B/T = Mumbai / Bhiwandi / Thane

(For example: 82330 – 2500 / 1.075 / 54.24 = 1396)

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400013, INDIA | Email: info@polymerupdate.com | Tel: +912261772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +912261772025

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Week 21 – May 27, 2015 Currency rates equivalent to 1 US Dollar : Countries

Week 21 – May 27, 2015

Currency rates equivalent to 1 US Dollar :

Countries

Currency Rates

Countries

Currency Rates

Indian Rupees (INR)

63.93

Japan Yen (JPY)

123.07

Pakistan Rupees (PKR)

101.95

Indonesia Rupiahs (IDR)

13,214.99

China Yuan Renminb (CNY)

6.20

Malaysia Ringgits (MYR)

3.64

Bangladesh Taka (BDT)

77.73

Singapore Dollars (SGD)

1.34

Sri Lanka Rupees (LKR)

133.80

South Korea Won (KRW)

1107.44

Thailand Baht (THB)

33.71

Saudi Arabia Riyals (SAR)

3.75

Taiwan New Dollars (TWD)

30.67

United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED)

3.67

Heard in PP MARKET

Platts:

PP Raffia/Injection: 2H June buy idea at $1330-1340/mt CFR SEA PP IPP Film: IPP Film vs Raffia spread is about $20/mt CFR SEA

PP BOPP: 2H June offer heard at $1360-1370/mt CFR SEA, India origin

PP Raffia/Injection: 2H June offer heard at $1350/mt CFR SEA (Vietnam), India origin

PP Block Copol: Block Copol vs Raffia spread is about $50-60/mt CFR SEA

PP Raffia: 2H June sell idea at $1290/mt CFR FE Asia PP Raffia: 2H June buy idea at $1270/mt CFR FE Asia PP Raffia: 2H June offer at $1370-$1390/mt CFR SEA, ME origin PP Raffia: 2H June buy idea at $1330/mt CFR SEA PP Injection: 2H June offer at $1370-$1390/mt CFR SEA, South Africa origin PP Injection: 2H June buy idea at $1330/mt CFR SEA PP Raffia: 2H June offer $1290-1300/mt CFR FE Asia PP Raffia: 2H June tradable price heard at $1270-$1280/mt CFR FE Asia

PP Injection: 2H June offer $1290-1300/mt CFR FE Asia PP Injection: 2H June tradable price heard at $1260-$1270/mt CFR FE Asia PP Raffia: 2H June offer $1290-1300/mt CFR FE Asia

PP Injection: 2H June offer $1270/mt CFR FE Asia, India origin

PP Raffia [NON MOC]: 2H June offer at $1275/mt CFR FE Asia, Reliance origin

PP Raffia [NON MOC]: 2H June offer heard at $1370-$1380/mt CFR S Asia

PP Injection [NON MOC]: 2H June offer heard at $1370-$1380/mt CFR S Asia

PP IPP Film [NON MOC]: IPP Film vs Raffia spread about $15-20/mt CFR S Asia

PP BOPP [NON MOC]: BOPP vs Raffia spread about $10/mt CFR S Asia PP IPP Film [NON MOC]: IPP Film vs Raffia spread about $20-30/mt CFR S Asia PP BOPP [NON MOC]: BOPP vs Raffia spread about $10/mt CFR S Asia PP Block Copol [NON MOC]: Block Copol vs Raffia spread about $50/mt CFR S Asia PP Raffia: 2H June offer at $1275/mt CFR FE Asia, Reliance origin PP Raffia: 2H June offer heard at $1280/mt CFR FE Asia, Braschem origin PP Injection: Raffia vs Injection spread about $10/mt CFR FE Asia PP IPP Film: 2H June offer at $1290/mt CFR FE Asia, Reliance origin PP BOPP: BOPP vs Raffia spread about $10/mt CFR FE Asia PP Raffia [NON MOC]: Domestic China price at Yuan 8,900-9,000/mt

Polymerupdate:

N.A.

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400013, INDIA | Email: info@polymerupdate.com | Tel: +912261772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +912261772025

4

Week 21 – May 27, 2015 PLATTS INTERNATIONAL MARKET COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS Asian Propylene: Down

Week 21 – May 27, 2015

PLATTS INTERNATIONAL MARKET COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

Asian Propylene: Down $25-34/mt on week on lower buy-sell indications

Asian PP: Falls $5-$12/mt amid weakening sentiment

- Sentiment bearish on weak downstream demand - Wide buy-sell gap seen for CFR China cargoes

- China domestic import parity $72/mt below CFR

- Feedstock propylene falls $25/mt on week

Asian propylene dropped $25-34/mt week on week as indications from both end-users and suppliers were lower this week on the back of new supplies in the market and volatile

The Asian polypropylene market continued to weaken this week amid falling feedstock propylene prices and worsening buying sentiment across all grades. The CFR Far East Asia PP raffia marker fell $5/mt week on week to be assessed at $1,265/mt. Feedstock propylene price was assessed at $985/mt CFR China Wednesday, down $25/mt week on week. "[Polypropylene] demand will continue falling at least until mid-June due to weak sentiment and increasing domestic capacities," a trader in Hong Kong said. Another China-based PP importer said CTO-linked PP cargoes were likely to continue supplying China domestic markets, and he expected domestic

upstream costs. CFR China price fell $25/mt to $995/mt. The buy-sell gap was still wide, with buying indications heard at $960/mt while selling ideas were heard at $1,000-1,010/mt. A deal was heard concluded at $990/mt CFR China, however, this could not be confirmed. Meanwhile, more supply in China put downward pressure on prices this week. In China,

Zhangjiagang Yangzi River Petrochemical, or Yangzijiang, produced on-specification

prices to remain lower than import prices. The China domestic price for PP raffia fell from Yuan 9,550/mt to Yuan

propylene Wednesday at its new propane dehydrogenation plant in Zhejiang province,

8,950/mt over May 6-20 before rebounding to Yuan 9,100/mt Wednesday, but was still down Yuan 450/mt to

sources said Friday. The PDH unit can produce 600,000 mt/year propylene. Also, Sanyuan

date in May. This equate to an import parity price of $1,193/mt, $72/mt below the CFR Far East Asia assessment.

Petrochemical restarted production last week at its 450,000 mt/year Shaoxing PDH plant in

All polypropylene grades for South Asia fell $12/mt week on week to $1,368/mt CFR South Asia. A major producer

China's Zhejiang province, a company source confirmed. Downstream prices including

attributed weakening sentiment in South Asia to the slowdown in China PP demand starting to impact India and to

polypropylene, 2-EH, and acrylonitrile have also been on a downward trend in the past

Pakistan considering raising custom duties in early June, which was discouraging buyers from taking positions

weeks. Upstream, crude volatility also kept buyers on the sidelines. The front-month July ICE

until the issue was clarified. CFR Southeast Asia PP raffia prices fell $10/mt week on week. A trader in Vietnam

Brent crude futures were $66.33/barrel at 4:30 pm Singapore time (0830 GMT) Friday, down

said the advantages for cargo from India and China coming to Vietnam was the shorter distance compared with

$0.26/mt week on week. Last week, selling indications were heard at $1,030-1,050/mt but

deepsea cargo from the Middle East and the lack of duties due to the free trade agreement. However producers

this week it has dropped to $1,010/mt. Buyers on the other hand were still talking about

and traders noted weakening buyer sentiment in Vietnam as PP raffia from India offered at $1,350/mt met

$1,000/mt levels but this week all buy indications heard were below that between $950- 960/mt. Sellers said that buyers were buying small quantities on a need-based basis. Meanwhile, the FOB Korea price was assessed at $940/mt, down $34/mt from a week ago, falling almost the same pace as the FOB Japan price, which saw a $33/mt decline week on week to $935/mt.

resistance and the buying idea fell to $1,330/mt, down $20/mt from last week. A trader in China who had offered successfully to Vietnam last week said the environment was tougher this week as buyers continued to anticipate more favorable terms in early June

RATIONALE:

RATIONALE:

Polypropylene raffia was assessed at $1,265/mt CFR Far East Asia Wednesday, down $5/mt week on week. Offers were heard at $1,275-$1,290/mt, the sharpest from Reliance, with no solid bids or deals heard as buyers continued to wait for polypropylene to follow the price drop in propylene on a CFR China basis. The CFR Southeast Asia PP raffia marker was assessed at $1,345/mt, down $10/mt week on week, reflecting the sharpest offer to Vietnam heard at $1,350/mt from India and buy ideas in the range of $1,330-1,340/mt CFR Southeast

CFR China propylene fell $25/mt week on week to be assessed at $995/mt below the selling

indication heard at $1,000/mt and above the buying idea heard at $960/mt. FOB Japan price

was down $33/mt from the previous week to $935/mt below a selling idea at $940/mt. FOB

Korea fell in line with the FOB Japan marker, dropping $34/mt to $940/mt but no firm bids

and offers were heard Friday.

Asia. The CFR South Asia PP raffia marker fell $12/mt week on week to be assessed at $1,368/mt, reflecting offers heard at $1,370-1,380/mt from the Middle East and buy ideas heard at $1,360/mt CFR South Asia

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400013, INDIA | Email: info@polymerupdate.com | Tel: +912261772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +912261772025

5

Week 21 – May 27, 2015 POLYMERUPDATE - PP MARKET SUPPLY SCENARIO OCU restarted by

Week 21 – May 27, 2015

POLYMERUPDATE - PP MARKET SUPPLY SCENARIO

– May 27, 2015 POLYMERUPDATE - PP MARKET SUPPLY SCENARIO OCU restarted by LG Chem LG

OCU restarted by LG Chem LG Chem has restarted an olefins conversion unit (OCU) following an unplanned shutdown. The OCU restarted on May 27. It was shut on May 26 owing to technical issues. Located at Yeosu in South Korea, the OCU has a propylene capacity of 80,000 mt/year.

Petrochemical complex restarted by Yansab Yanbu National Petrochemical Company (Yansab) has restarted its petrochemical complex following maintenance turnaround. The complex restarted on May 22, 2015. It was shut on April 17, 2015. However, the ethylene glycol plant at the complex continues to remain off-stream. The reason behind the extended shutdown of the plant could not be ascertained. Located in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia the complex has an ethylene capacity of 1.3 million mt/year and propylene capacity of 400,000 mt/year. Downstream facilities comprise a 770,000 ethylene glycol plant and two PP plants of 400,000 mt/year each.

Naphtha cracker planned to be taken off- stream by Mitsui Chem Mitsui Chem is in plans to shut a naphtha cracker for maintenance turnaround. The cracker is likely to shut on June 20, 2015. It is expected to remain off-stream for around one month. Located at Chiba in Japan, the cracker has an ethylene capacity of 600,000 mt/year and propylene capacity of 331,000 mt/year.

Naphtha cracker taken off-stream by Mitsubishi Mitsubishi Chemical has shut a naphtha cracker for maintenance turnaround. The plant was shut on May 21, 2015. It is expected to remain off-stream till June 26. Located in Mizushima, Japan, the cracker has an ethylene capacity of 495,000 mt/year and propylene capacity of 320,000 mt/year.

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400013, INDIA | Email: info@polymerupdate.com | Tel: +912261772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +912261772025

6

Week 21 – May 27, 2015 PLATTS – Price Analysis of PP Chain Processing Margins

Week 21 – May 27, 2015

PLATTS – Price Analysis of PP Chain Processing Margins

Naphtha to Propylene

Analysis of PP Chain Processing Margins Naphtha to Propylene Propylene to Polypropylene Typical North East Asian

Propylene to Polypropylene

Margins Naphtha to Propylene Propylene to Polypropylene Typical North East Asian $/mt margin for producing propylene

Typical North East Asian $/mt margin for producing propylene from naphtha using a conversion cost of $250/mt

Typical $/mt margin for producing PP homo injection in Far East Asia

from propylene using a conversion cost of $150/mt

Polyproplene : Naphtha ratio

a conversion cost of $150/mt Polyproplene : Naphtha ratio CFR China Vs SEA Propylene CFR FE

CFR China Vs SEA Propylene

Polyproplene : Naphtha ratio CFR China Vs SEA Propylene CFR FE Asia PP homo injection prices

CFR FE Asia PP homo injection prices as a ratio of naphtha

CFR China propylene premium or discount to CFR South East Asian propylene prices

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400013, INDIA | Email: info@polymerupdate.com | Tel: +912261772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +912261772025

7

Week 21 – May 27, 2015 CRISIL Research – Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis Overview:

Week 21 – May 27, 2015

CRISIL Research – Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis

Research – Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis Overview: Preparing for a marathon, not sprint The Narendra

Overview: Preparing for a marathon, not sprint The Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance has some reason to cheer as it completes a year in office this month. India's macros look better than they did a year ago. Growth is inching up, inflation has come down and current account deficit is in the safe zone. Having said that, reality has begun to bite into hopes that there would be drastic reforms and the economy would turn around quickly. The recent rise in crude oil prices, possibility of weak monsoons amid rising rural distress, together with the parliamentary

logjam on two critical bills - land acquisition and Goods andServices Tax (GST) - are also huge dampeners.Over the last one year

government has taken steps to clear infrastructure bottlenecks, speed up decision-making, fast track project clearances/reduce red-

tape and sort out mining issues. But these steps, and an additional kick from slump in oil prices, have just been enough to engineer a

moderate turnaround in the economy.It is now becoming clear that government has limited ability to push growth up in the short run.

One, it cannot use fiscal spending and deep rate cuts to pump up demand. The legacy of high inflation and need to bring down deficits

prevents it from doing so. Two, the lack of demand, high leverage in corporate balance sheets and high quantum of bad assets in the

banking sector act as speed breaker to private investment and hence growth.We retain our growth forecasts of 7.4% for fiscal 2015

and 7.9% for fiscal 2016. The nominal uptick would be triggered by a lift in private consumption and a mild pick-up in investments in

public sector-led infrastructure projects. So the lift in private corporate investments will have to wait until 2016-17.

IIP trend indicate industry growth remains fragile Industrial production grew 2.8% in 2014-15 in comparison with -0.1% in 2013-14. But, the sluggish pace of domesticdemand and weak export demand weighed on industrial production. Slow growth in investment and soft commodityprices are expected to have taken a toll on revenue growth in many industrial sectors such as steel, pharmaceuticals,and commodity chemical producers in Q4. On the bright side, the 3-month moving average of the IIP series, which ismuch less volatile, is showing improving growth. In addition, the trend in both, consumer-oriented and investment-orientedsectors is beginning to climb up.Growth in overall IIP in 2014- 15 was mostly supported by electricity production (up 8.4%). Manufacturing indexgrowth also revived to 2.3%, but came on a weak base (-0.8% in 2013-14) signalling that production remainsfragile. According to use-based classification, basic goods (6.9%) index was favourable, while consumer goodssaw a decline of -3.4% in 2014-15 (versus -2.8% in 2013-14), indicating that consumption demand was fragile.Turning to the core sector (accounting for 40% of IIP), the growth in the index remained almost unchangedcompared to the last fiscal at 3.8% y-o-y (versus 3.9% in 2013-14).

to the last fiscal at 3.8% y-o-y (versus 3.9% in 2013-14). Contact Details: 344, A to
to the last fiscal at 3.8% y-o-y (versus 3.9% in 2013-14). Contact Details: 344, A to
to the last fiscal at 3.8% y-o-y (versus 3.9% in 2013-14). Contact Details: 344, A to

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400013, INDIA | Email: info@polymerupdate.com | Tel: +912261772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +912261772025

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Week 21 – May 27, 2015 Inflation declines in April Inflation fell to 4.9% in

Week 21 – May 27, 2015

Inflation declines in April Inflation fell to 4.9% in April from 5.3% last month. Amidst worries that unseasonal rains are ruining the game for food prices, food inflation surprised when it fell to 5.1% from 6.1%. This suggests that the impact of weather-related disturbances is yet to be felt on crop production. But the slide is also because of a high base from last year - inflation in April 2014 had reached 8.5% after which it steadily came down. During April 2015, core inflation remained sticky at 4.6% while fuel inflation rose by 44 bps, possibly due to a weaker rupee and higher oil prices.Food inflation fell to 5.1% from 6.1% last month; core inflation was sticky at 4.6% while most other categories saw a slight pick-up in inflation. A favourable base effect had a role to play in the inflation dip.

base effect had a role to play in the inflation dip. Rupee starts 2015-16 on weak
base effect had a role to play in the inflation dip. Rupee starts 2015-16 on weak

Rupee starts 2015-16 on weak note

The rupee depreciated to 63.6/$ by April-end compared to 62.6/$ in the previous month. On a monthly average basis, therupee stood at

62.8/$ versus 62.0/$ in March. This trend was driven by lower foreign institutional investor inflowsinto Indian markets, rising strength of

the US dollar against most global currencies, month-end demand fromimporters, and weak local equity market performance due to weak

corporate earnings.

About CRISIL Research

CRISIL Research is India's largest independent and integrated research house. We provide insights, opinions, and analysis on the Indian economy, industries, capital markets and companies. We are India's most credible provider of economy and industry research. Our industry research covers 70 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. Our analysis is supported by inputs from our network of more than 4,500 primary sources, including industry experts, industry associations, and trade channels. We play a key role in India's fixed income markets. We are India's largest provider of valuations of fixed income securities, serving the mutual fund, insurance, and banking industries. We are the sole provider of debt and hybrid indices to India's mutual fund and life insurance industries. We pioneered independent equity research in India, and are today India's largest independent equity research house. Our defining trait is the ability to convert information and data into expert judgements and forecasts with complete objectivity. We leverage our deep understanding of the macroeconomy and our extensive sector coverage to provide unique insights on micro-macro and cross-sectoral linkages. We deliver our research through an innovative web-based research platform. Our talent pool comprises economists, sector experts, company analysts, and information management specialists.

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Week 21 – May 27, 2015 POLYMERUPDATE PLATTS Editorial Contact: Global Editorial Director, Petrochemicals:

Week 21 – May 27, 2015

POLYMERUPDATE

PLATTS

Editorial Contact:

Global Editorial Director, Petrochemicals: Simon Thorne

Director, Editorial: Jwalant Oza

Managing Editor: Prema Viswanathan

Senior Editors: Harsh Nadkarni, Feroz Khan

Singapore Editors: Gustav Holmvik, Ng Bao Ying, Michelle Kim, Heng Hui, Genevieve Soong, Maithreyi Ramdas, Pamela Sumayao, Jennifer Lee

Sales Contact:

Marketing Managers: Reshma Jadhav, Tausif Siddiqi, Nilesh Shah

Tokyo Editors: Fumiko Dobashi, Anton Ferkov

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