Sanitary Engineering

Eng: Mohammed S. Yassin

2nd semester , 2009

Population Estimation:
Several methods are used to forecast population in the future (each method has its own
assumption)
Three methods will be discussed (Arithmetic method , Geometric increase method and
saturation method ).
"-Arithmetic method:

 
  

Unit :capita

Where , 
 : population after time t .

Unit: capita

 : Present population .
K : increasing rate of population 






,
  


Unit : (capita/yr)
Unit : (capita/yr)

R : growth rate
Note: This method has an assumption that the increase in population is constant from year
to year.
Since the rate of change in population is constant, the relation between the time t and the
future population (
 ) is linear. the figure below shows this relation :

&igure "

Sanitary Engineering
Eng: Mohammed S. Yassin

2nd semester , 2009

Example
 :
The popula'on of a city in ())* is +,))) inhabitant, and the growth rate of the population in
this city is -..) % what is the predicted popula'on in ()+* .
Solution:

  
  
      

 
"#

  !  $%%    &'&(
)*

 
      +&'&  ,  -(
)

(- Geometric increase method:

This method differs from the previous one in which the change in population is in a
direct proportion with the number of population. While the population varies from
year to another, the increase in population is not constant.
Ex: the popula'on in ())* . 
the popula'on in ())0. 
the popula'on in ()), . 
the popula'on in ())1 . 

!  !% +&  ,/

The relation between the time t and
 will be as follow :

P=-)))

01233456789:;3<3
P=--))
P=-,-)

Sanitary Engineering
Eng: Mohammed S. Yassin

2nd semester , 2009

Example
 : Solve the previous example by using the Geometric increase method :
Given:

  
  
      

 
Solution:
!  !% +&  ,/   +&  ,=%  &(
)
By comparing the two values of the population obtained from the first method (Arithmetic
method) and the second method (Geometric increase method) , it seems that the second
method gives more logical and accurate estimation of the population .
The figure below shows the two methods together:

&igure +

Sanitary Engineering
Eng: Mohammed S. Yassin

2nd semester , 2009

In any case , the value obtained from either the first method or the second method should
finally be compared with the saturation case of population in the city .
Example
 : calculate the saturation number of population in a city has an area of
*+.-))>?
To compute the saturation number of population just follow these steps:
Total area = *+.-)) >?

Residential area = *

total area 

Area of residential area =0)% +@A, 

Because . % are green areas and

(. % are streets

 '    '>?

Residential area = total area

+)%(total area)=0)% (total area )

Area of buildings = *)%  +)BC)A, 

'>?
Assume that the common number of floors in the city for each building about . 7oors
Dtotal available residential area = ( E@FGH)AB)CI)  +JI@FFA@@CH>G,
=

  = &>?

G8v3:7;677;36v3<6M36<369N9:3OP678Q&>? 
VWVXYXZX[YX\Y]^]_[`]aV[XYX^]X

N5mb3<9NNP67Q8:7;3c871

bcdb/deb

 

&fg
-FA
&fg



hQQ5m37;36v3<6M3:5mb3<9NN6m8P1m3mb3<Q8Qm3mb3<Q8:36c;N6m8P1
D H)@C(@Fi
@
HA)@C)Ci() 
+j@FFA,  +j9NN6m8P1m3mb3<Q,
-    (
)







Sanitary Engineering
Eng: Mohammed S. Yassin

2nd semester , 2009


F8:6PP1N9<7;32<9j3c7w9<k

&-

C;99Q37;3:5mb3<9N136<Q+d3Q8M:23<89d,N9<195<:37w9<k. C
c6Pc5P6737;32<3Q3:72925P6789::5mb3<+
 ,5Q8:M7;3Q7678Q78cQd676
F8:d7;3M<9w7;<6739N195<c871N<9mQ7678Q78cQd676
C9m25737;3N575<32925P6789:5Q8:M7;3M39m37<8c8:c<36Q3m37;9d
C9m25737;3Q675<6789:c6Q39N7;32925P6789:8:195<c8716QQ;9w:6b9v3
C9m26<3b37w33:7;3<3Q5P7Q9b768:3dN<9mQ732Qr
N973:!  BC)@F
@
HA)@C @F@H(@HC

Y95w8PPN6c37w9c6Q3Q:

C6Q3&:
C6Q3&:



IN7;3:5mb3<9N2925P6789:9b768:3dN<9m7;3G39m37<8c8:c<36Q3m37;9d
 >
Q675<6789:c6Q39N2925P6789:+
wb xcb dy )
In this case 7;3:5mb3<9N2925P6789:7;67195Q;95Pd5Q38:7;3d3Q8M:2<9c3QQ8Q7;3
Q675<6789:c6Q39N2925P6789:+
wb xcb dy ,


# of Population
used in the
design process

Note : In this case we choose the saturation number of population because this number of
population is the maximum one that the city can have (this means that ! is a fictional
number )

Sanitary Engineering
Eng: Mohammed S. Yassin

2nd semester , 2009


C6Q3
C6Q3
C6Q3:

If the future population (
 , obtained from the Geometric increase < saturation case of
population (
wb xcb dy )
In this case, the number of population that you should use in the design process is


# of Population
used in the design
process