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R
Log Severity
Line value
Y
G
?
Log Probability
1. The boundaries separate between colors in a four-level risk system, the values of the
lines shown are 1 (separates between green and yellow, 2(separates between yellow
and orange, 3 (separates between orange and red)
2. These lines are called iso-risk lines since they represent the relationship x.y=c in a
natural scale.
3. The fourth line represent the upper limit of the red color, this line does not show in
this representation, since there is no upper limit for the red category.
4. These are called boundaries since they separate between qualitative categories of
risk as mentioned in #1
D. For a given traffic system, the probability of occurrence of a certain daily car accident is
0.00001, the total direct cost of the accident is L.E 20000. Calculate the direct and social
risk costs; for social cost, use a factor of 10. What is the significance of the calculated risk
numbers?
Risk (r) = p*s, s being the social cost. The social cost is much larger than the UDE (the
factor to change direct cost to social cost is given, equals 10 times)
R = 0.00001*20000*10= 2 /accident/car/day
This means that the society (who bears the social cost) should recover on a daily basis
LE 2 from each car (LE 730 per year) instead of recovering the LE 200000 from those
who were behind the accident.
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GEN N 210 Risk Management, Fall 2008A Sample Solution of Mid-term Exam
E. Build a line of analysis in a PRA sheet corresponding to the fall of a heavy load while
being handled by a group of persons.
What can
go wrong?
UDE
Consequences
Of UDE
P, category
Lifting,
Fall of the
handling a
object
heavy object
Severe injury
of one person,
at least
2 (estimate
based on
awareness
of the
system)
Operation,
process
Risk number
S,
category and rank
R
(4)
F. Build the following intermediate fire scenario. Fill-in the missing information in the
blank boxes: probability, or fault-event or category of fault-event.
2nd UDE
intermediate fire
0.00015
&
0.15
0.001
Butane, gas
propagator
&
spark
0.01
0.1
enabler
or
starters
0.06
smoking
0.03
Static electricity
0.01
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GEN N 210 Risk Management, Fall 2008A Sample Solution of Mid-term Exam
( ) Is always your destiny (Qadhar) and has no cure
( ) and Management are complementary
b. Near miss events are
(
(
(
(
(
( ) Safety records
( ) Time of day
( ) None of these
) severity
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