Coalition frets over lack of progress in their fight against Isis - FT.

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21/09/2015 10:56

September 18, 2015 3:43 pm

Coalition frets over lack of progress in their fight

against Isis
Sam Jones in London and Erika Solomon in Sinjar

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AFP

Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga fighters in northern Iraq

As Major General Eizza Zawir, commander of the Kurdish Peshmergas fourth division, gazed out
over the flat plain from his position on the hills overlooking the Iraq-Syria border, he could see the
busy supply lines of Isis less than 3km away. They would have been easy to hit but Maj Gen
Zawirs hands were tied.
Weve spoken to the American team here, the British team, the French team. They see it every day.
They can see with their aircraft very clearly. Why don't they do anything? I don't know, he says.
The Kurdish troops are not alone in their frustration.
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Coalition frets over lack of progress in their fight against Isis - FT.com

21/09/2015 10:56

The military fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, known as Isis, is now locked in a
stalemate, and criticism is mounting across the 60-nation coalition pledged to combat the group
that Washingtons strategy to defeat the jihadis is failing.
The chorus of dissent is being heard outside military circles: the Atlantic intelligence community has
in recent weeks begun to significantly change its assessment of Isis resilience and the magnitude of
the struggle against it, three senior intelligence officials told the Financial Times.
One year since US President Barack Obama declared a campaign to degrade and ultimately
destroy Isis, evidence of the efforts shortcomings is clear enough: 6,800 air strikes have shrunk the
size of the self-declared caliphate by 25 per cent, according to the Pentagon, but almost all of that
area is sparsely populated and strategically unimportant.
Successes, such as the recapture of Tikrit, have been overshadowed by losses, including the fall of
Ramadi. About 400 Isis vehicles and tanks have been destroyed, but Isis has captured well over
2,000, if not considerably more, analysts estimate.
In Syria, as General Lloyd Austin, commander of the US Central Command, revealed on
Wednesday, the programme to train moderate rebels has produced about 50 graduates, of which
just four or five were fighting.
The US has always cast its fight as a multiyear campaign. But officials say the phrase masks a
serious shortfall in timing.
One senior European diplomat within the coalition said they had expected Isis to be suffering
serious problems by now. A senior US military official characterises progress as very slow. In
some key areas, they both admitted, it was failing altogether.

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Coalition frets over lack of progress in their fight against Isis - FT.com

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Coalition frets over lack of progress in their fight against Isis - FT.com

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I would say five or 10 years is the timescale we are now looking at, says Harleen Gambhir, a
counter terrorism analyst at the Institute for the Study of War. In Syria, the situation is in
stalemate and the Iraq theatre is moving incredibly slowly...It might be the right approach in
principle, but during this time, Isis is digging itself in. They are adapting.
Isis, says Ms Gambhir, remains a militarily capable organisation that can co-ordinate phased,
sophisticated campaigns and it has scaled up its strategy to act regionally.
That virulence, and Washingtons hesitance, is making the caliphates near neighbours restless.
Jordan is itching to intervene. Echoing the concerns of the Peshmerga, one senior Jordanian
military officer describes seeing Isis convoys and military formations crossing between Iraq and
southern Syria on an almost daily basis. But were not allowed to hit them, he says.
Amman drew up plans to create a safe zone in southern Syria this summer. Jordan aimed to prevent
Isis advance south of Palmyra and help secure the north-eastern border crossings to Iraq. It even
proposed setting up a forward base deep in the desert to directly take the fight to the caliphate. The
White House withheld its backing.
Others have already acted. Turkeys new safe zone in northern Syria was grudgingly accepted by the
US in exchange for use of the air base at Incirlik. Washington still fears clashes between Turkey and
pro-Assad and Kurdish forces.
Russias move this month to send significant amounts of military material and personnel to fortify
Latakia, north of its naval base in Tartus, Syria, has meanwhile prompted the greatest concern in
Washington. Any move to help entrench the regime in Damascus will only strengthen Isis cause,
European and US diplomats believe.
The coalitions caution, though, is not without reason.
First, Washington and its European allies are wary of becoming identified by civilians in Syria and
Iraq as a foreign aggressor. Winning the support of the local population is an absolute prerequisite
to success, they believe.
Second, regardless of the boost an immediate military escalation might achieve, there is not yet a
cogent long-term military plan.
By design the current military strategy was only going to be so successful, notes Hayder al-Khoei,
associate fellow at Chatham House. This was about stopping Isis forward momentum but nothing
more. The Iraqis have done a very good job in carving out terrain and drawing lines of defence but
they are absolutely not capable of moving forward yet. There is no plan for Fallujah or Mosul.
Third, and most important, Washington is worried that pushing back Isis may fan instability, rather
than fight it. Without having moderate forces on the ground, a territorial vacuum left by Isis could
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Coalition frets over lack of progress in their fight against Isis - FT.com

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mean more sectarian violence.

Isis may lose ground, they reason, but its roots in a brutalised and factionalised local population
may only deepen.
Before anything we need a political solution, says Afzal Ashraf, consultant fellow at the Royal
United Services Institute. But that needs international agreement the coalition needs to agree on
prioritising dealing with Isis or Assad.
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