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Geostatistics (1)

Alexander Brenning

University of Waterloo, Canada

Geostatistics 1 1 / 47

Todays class

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Introduction

Intrinsic Random Functions

Semivariogram Modeling

Geostatistics 1 2 / 47

Introduction

Overview

History

Current Research

Case Study

Motivation

Semivariogram

Cloud

Empirical

Semivariogram

Case Study:

Empirical Svgm.

Directional Svgm.

Wrap-up

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Geostatistics 1 3 / 47

Overview

Introduction

Overview

History

Current Research

Case Study

Motivation

Semivariogram

Cloud

Empirical

Semivariogram

Case Study:

Empirical Svgm.

Directional Svgm.

Wrap-up

Intrinsic Random

Functions

numeric variables at point locations.

Analysis of the spatial dependence structure

Kriging interpolation

Kriging & regression

Regression in the presence of spatial autocorrelation

Geostatistical simulation

Semivariogram

Modeling

Geostatistics 1 4 / 47

History

Introduction

Overview

History

Current Research

Case Study

Motivation

Semivariogram

Cloud

Empirical

Semivariogram

Case Study:

Empirical Svgm.

Directional Svgm.

Wrap-up

(Mercer & Hall, 1911; Youden & Mehlich, 1937) and forestry

(Langsaetter, 1926; Matern, 1960; Jowett, 1955)

Intrinsic Random

Functions

develops a technique that is now called kriging

Semivariogram

Modeling

Motivated by meteorological applications

Could not be applied: lack of computer power

point samples

Fontainebleau) formulates geostatistical theory

See Webster & Oliver, 2007

Geostatistics 1 5 / 47

Current Research

Introduction

Overview

History

Current Research

Case Study

Motivation

Semivariogram

Cloud

Empirical

Semivariogram

Case Study:

Empirical Svgm.

Directional Svgm.

Wrap-up

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Machine-learning techniques in geostastistics (Kanevski et

al., 2008)

Geostatistics for massive, multi-scale data

downscaling remote sensing data

Multipoint geostatistics

Semivariogram

Modeling

Geostatistics 1 6 / 47

Introduction

Overview

History

Current Research

Case Study

Motivation

Semivariogram

Cloud

Empirical

Semivariogram

Case Study:

Empirical Svgm.

Directional Svgm.

Wrap-up

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

concentrations (in ppm),

and soil and landscape

variables

At 155 locations on a

floodplain of the river

Meuse / Maas,

Netherlands

Bulk samples from an area

of approx. 15 m x 15 m

Sample dataset of the

gstat package)

Geostatistics 1 7 / 47

Motivation

Introduction

Overview

History

Current Research

Case Study

Motivation

Semivariogram

Cloud

Empirical

Semivariogram

Case Study:

Empirical Svgm.

Directional Svgm.

Wrap-up

Intrinsic Random

Functions

more similar than observations at locations remote from each

other.

This can be measured using some similarity or dissimilarity

measure:

Correlation correlogram

(in time series analysis: autocorrelation function)

Semivariance semivariogram (in geostats)

Semivariogram

Modeling

Geostatistics 1 8 / 47

Semivariogram Cloud

Introduction

Overview

History

Current Research

Case Study

Motivation

Semivariogram

Cloud

Empirical

Semivariogram

Case Study:

Empirical Svgm.

Directional Svgm.

Wrap-up

Measurements zi

at locations xi :

Semivariogram cloud:

Plot semivariance against

distance.

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Distance

|xj xi |

1

3

...

Semivariance

(zj zi )2 /2

(3 7)2 /2 = 8

(16 7)2 /2 = 40.5

...

(N locations N (N 1) pairs)

Geostatistics 1 9 / 47

Empirical Semivariogram

Introduction

Overview

History

Current Research

Case Study

Motivation

Semivariogram

Cloud

Empirical

Semivariogram

Case Study:

Empirical Svgm.

Directional Svgm.

Wrap-up

with distance h

together in a class Nh .

2. Average the semivariance

within each class Nh :

Semivariogram cloud:

X

1

(h) =

(zi zj )2

2 |Nh |

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

(i,j)Nh

Empirical semivariogram:

Geostatistics 1 10 / 47

Introduction

Overview

History

Current Research

Case Study

Motivation

Semivariogram

Cloud

Empirical

Semivariogram

Case Study:

Empirical Svgm.

Directional Svgm.

Wrap-up

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Geostatistics 1 11 / 47

Directional Semivariograms

Introduction

Overview

History

Current Research

Case Study

Motivation

Semivariogram

Cloud

Empirical

Semivariogram

Case Study:

Empirical Svgm.

Directional Svgm.

Wrap-up

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

approxly same orientation

to estimate an empirical

semivariogram

Explore possible

dependence on the

direction (anisotropy)

E.g. air pollution more

similar in wind direction

than perpendicular to

wind direction

Geostatistics 1 12 / 47

Wrap-up of motivation

Introduction

Overview

History

Current Research

Case Study

Motivation

Semivariogram

Cloud

Empirical

Semivariogram

Case Study:

Empirical Svgm.

Directional Svgm.

Wrap-up

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Nugget measurement error, apply smoothing instead

of interpolation?

Range search radius of kriging interpolation

Range optimize spatial sampling design

semivariogram.

Now we will use a more formal approach to link this

empirical motivation with geostatistical models.

Geostatistics 1 13 / 47

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Regionalized variable

Probability Distrib.

Stationarity

Covariance

Second-order

Stationarity

Correlogram

Semivariogram

Intrinsic Stationarity

Semi- and Covgm.

Isotropy

Svgm. Shape

Interpretation

Semivariogram

Modeling

Geostatistics 1 14 / 47

Regionalized variable

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Regionalized

variable

Probability Distrib.

Stationarity

Covariance

Second-order

Stationarity

Correlogram

Semivariogram

Intrinsic Stationarity

Semi- and Covgm.

Isotropy

Svgm. Shape

Interpretation

Semivariogram

Modeling

realization of a random variable Z(x).

D is the domain, e.g. the (infinite) set of all point locations

in the study area. Here: D 2 .

The set (z(x))xD = {z(x) : x D} of values is called a

regionalized variable.

It is a realization of the random function or random field

Z = (Z(x))xD ,

However, we only observe a finite set of n regionalized

values

z1 = z(x1 ), . . . , zn = z(xn )

from one particular realization (z(x))xD of Z.

Geostatistics 1 15 / 47

Probability Distributions

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Regionalized variable

Probability

Distrib.

Stationarity

Covariance

Second-order

Stationarity

Correlogram

Semivariogram

Intrinsic Stationarity

Semi- and Covgm.

Isotropy

Svgm. Shape

Interpretation

distribution function Fx :

P (Z(x) z) = Fx (z)

equal a given value z.

In general, these distribution functions can potentially be

incredibly complex, and even more so the joint distribution

function of several random variables Z(x1 ), . . . , Z(xk ).

We have to make some assumptions to be able to model

these distributions using semivariograms etc.

Semivariogram

Modeling

Geostatistics 1 16 / 47

Stationarity

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Regionalized variable

Probability Distrib.

Stationarity

Covariance

Second-order

Stationarity

Correlogram

Semivariogram

Intrinsic Stationarity

Semi- and Covgm.

Isotropy

Svgm. Shape

Interpretation

Semivariogram

Modeling

locations may follow different probability distributions.

(almost) impossible to handle!

Different types of stationarity make life easier.

Strict stationarity means that any multiple-point

distribution function depends only on the location of points

relative to each other.

domain.

weaker forms of stationarity:

only based on pairs of points (two-point geostats)

Geostatistics 1 17 / 47

Covariance

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Regionalized variable

Probability Distrib.

Stationarity

Covariance

Second-order

Stationarity

Correlogram

Semivariogram

Intrinsic Stationarity

Semi- and Covgm.

Isotropy

Svgm. Shape

Interpretation

m(x) = E(Z(x)),

Semivariogram

Modeling

its mean or expected value m,

x D,

C(x, x+h) = E [(Z(x) EZ(x)) (Z(x+h) EZ(x+h))] ,

Note that C(x, x) = Var(Z(x)) is the variance.

The covariance function C is stationary if it only depends

on the distance (vector) between points, i.e. if it can be

written as

C(x, x+h) = C(h).

Geostatistics 1 18 / 47

Second-order Stationarity

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Regionalized variable

Probability Distrib.

Stationarity

Covariance

Second-order

Stationarity

Correlogram

Semivariogram

Intrinsic Stationarity

Semi- and Covgm.

Isotropy

Svgm. Shape

Interpretation

type of independence of location:

m(x) = m

Semivariogram

Modeling

for all x D

vector h between an arbitrary pair of points x, x+h D:

C(x, x + h) = C(h)

Geostatistics 1 19 / 47

Correlogram

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Regionalized variable

Probability Distrib.

Stationarity

Covariance

Second-order

Stationarity

Correlogram

Semivariogram

Intrinsic Stationarity

Semi- and Covgm.

Isotropy

Svgm. Shape

Interpretation

function is

C(h)

(h) =

,

C(0)

(h) may vary between 1 and +1.

Semivariogram

Modeling

Geostatistics 1 20 / 47

Semivariogram

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Regionalized variable

Probability Distrib.

Stationarity

Covariance

Second-order

Stationarity

Correlogram

Semivariogram

Intrinsic Stationarity

Semi- and Covgm.

Isotropy

Svgm. Shape

Interpretation

geostatisticians use the semivariogram

1

(x, x+h) = Var (Z(x) Z(x+h)) ,

2

(e.g. in the gstat package) this may cause confusion!

Note: (x, x) = 0.

Semivariogram

Modeling

Geostatistics 1 21 / 47

Intrinsic Stationarity

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Regionalized variable

Probability Distrib.

Stationarity

Covariance

Second-order

Stationarity

Correlogram

Semivariogram

Intrinsic

Stationarity

Semi- and Covgm.

Isotropy

Svgm. Shape

Interpretation

E (Z(x + h) Z(x)) .

the distance vector h between pairs of points:

(x, x + h) = (h)

is defined to be intrinsically stationary (or just intrinsic).

Second-order stationarity implies intrinsic stationarity.

Intrinsic stationarity does not imply second-order stationarity!

Semivariogram

Modeling

Geostatistics 1 22 / 47

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Regionalized variable

Probability Distrib.

Stationarity

Covariance

Second-order

Stationarity

Correlogram

Semivariogram

Intrinsic Stationarity

Semi- and

Covgm.

Isotropy

Svgm. Shape

Interpretation

Semivariogram

Modeling

are related to each other:

2(x, x+h) = C(x, x) + C(x+h, x+h) 2C(x, x+h).

(h) = C(0) C(h).

value (), then it has a stationary covariance function

C(h) = () (h) + M,

(1)

functions with different covariograms may have the same semivariogram.

Geostatistics 1 23 / 47

Isotropy

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Regionalized variable

Probability Distrib.

Stationarity

Covariance

Second-order

Stationarity

Correlogram

Semivariogram

Intrinsic Stationarity

Semi- and Covgm.

Isotropy

Svgm. Shape

Interpretation

In general, the semivariance and covariance may depend on

the direction of h.

directional semivariograms

but not on the orientation of h, then it is called isotropic.

Semivariogram

Modeling

Geostatistics 1 24 / 47

Introduction

this is its typical shape and structure:

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Regionalized variable

Probability Distrib.

Stationarity

Covariance

Second-order

Stationarity

Correlogram

Semivariogram

Intrinsic Stationarity

Semi- and Covgm.

Isotropy

Svgm. Shape

Interpretation

Semivariogram

Modeling

2

A nugget effect nug

is present if (h) > 0 for h very close to zero.

The sill 2 = () is the semivar. level of the plateau (if it exists).

The range r is the lag distance where the svgm reaches the sill.

Geostatistics 1 25 / 47

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Regionalized variable

Probability Distrib.

Stationarity

Covariance

Second-order

Stationarity

Correlogram

Semivariogram

Intrinsic Stationarity

Semi- and Covgm.

Isotropy

Svgm. Shape

Interpretation

second-order stationary.

range (or autocorrelation range): Observations are

considered to be uncorrelated beyond this distance.

What uncorrelated means, depends however on the scale.

2

nugget effect nug

: represents microscale variation and

measurement error not a continuous surface!

Overall, the characteristics of the svgm near h = 0 are of

critical importance for characterizing the random function.

Semivariogram

Modeling

Geostatistics 1 26 / 47

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Svgm. Models

Spherical Svgm.

Exponential Svgm.

Nugget Svgm.

Svgm. Cloud

Empirical Svgm.

Robust Estimator

Directional Svgm

Anisotropy

Svgm. Fitting

Semivariogram Modeling

Geostatistics 1 27 / 47

Semivariogram Models

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Svgm. Models

Spherical Svgm.

Exponential Svgm.

Nugget Svgm.

Svgm. Cloud

Empirical Svgm.

Robust Estimator

Directional Svgm

Anisotropy

Svgm. Fitting

a valid svgm.: A function has

to honour certain

mathematical properties in

order to be a valid svgm.

A semivariogram model is

a function

(h; )

that gives a valid svgm for

any parameter

= (1 , . . . , k ).

is estimated from the

empirical svgm.

Many parameters more

flexible, but harder to fit.

Svgm models can be

combined by adding them.

Geostatistics 1 28 / 47

Spherical Semivariogram

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Svgm. Models

Spherical Svgm.

Exponential Svgm.

Nugget Svgm.

Svgm. Cloud

Empirical Svgm.

Robust Estimator

Directional Svgm

Anisotropy

Svgm. Fitting

The spherical semivariogram without nugget effect is:

(

3

h

2 3h

if h < r,

sph

2

2r

2r 3

(h; , r) =

2

otherwise.

Sill 2 , range r; stationary

Geostatistics 1 29 / 47

Exponential Svgm.

Introduction

exp (h; 2 , r) =

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Svgm. Models

Spherical Svgm.

Exponential

Svgm.

Nugget Svgm.

Svgm. Cloud

Empirical Svgm.

Robust Estimator

Directional Svgm

Anisotropy

Svgm. Fitting

2 exp(h/r) if h > 0,

0

if h = 0.

Converges to the sill as h .

sill to describe the model.

Geostatistics 1 30 / 47

Nugget Semivariogram

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Svgm. Models

Spherical Svgm.

Exponential Svgm.

Nugget Svgm.

Svgm. Cloud

Empirical Svgm.

Robust Estimator

Directional Svgm

Anisotropy

Svgm. Fitting

Only used in combination with other svgm models.

2

(h; nug ) =

0

if h = 0,

2

nug

otherwise.

Geostatistics 1 31 / 47

Semivariogram Cloud

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Svgm. Models

Spherical Svgm.

Exponential Svgm.

Nugget Svgm.

Svgm. Cloud

Empirical Svgm.

Robust Estimator

Directional Svgm

Anisotropy

Svgm. Fitting

semivariance individually as

(xi , xj ) = (zi zj )2 /2.

The scatter plot of (xi , xj ) against hij = |xi xj | is called

the semivariogram cloud.

Geostatistics 1 32 / 47

Empirical Semivariogram

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Svgm. Models

Spherical Svgm.

Exponential Svgm.

Nugget Svgm.

Svgm. Cloud

Empirical Svgm.

Robust Estimator

Directional Svgm

Anisotropy

Svgm. Fitting

2

Nh = (i, j) {1, . . . , n} : |xi xj | h

apart. Estimate the semivariance at distance h by

X

1

(h) =

(zi zj )2

2|Nh |

(i,j)Nh

model!

Geostatistics 1 33 / 47

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Svgm. Models

Spherical Svgm.

Exponential Svgm.

Nugget Svgm.

Svgm. Cloud

Empirical Svgm.

Robust Estimator

Directional Svgm

Anisotropy

Svgm. Fitting

Geostatistics 1 34 / 47

Robust Estimator

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Svgm. Models

Spherical Svgm.

Exponential Svgm.

Nugget Svgm.

Svgm. Cloud

Empirical Svgm.

Robust Estimator

Directional Svgm

Anisotropy

Svgm. Fitting

unknown process producing outliers

n

o

1

(h) =

med |zi zj |1/2 : (xi , xj ) Nh ,

2B(h)

Large differences |zi zj | have a smaller impact on this

estimator than when using (zi zj )2

The median (med) is more robust than mean

Geostatistics 1 35 / 47

Directional Semivariogram

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Svgm. Models

Spherical Svgm.

Exponential Svgm.

Nugget Svgm.

Svgm. Cloud

Empirical Svgm.

Robust Estimator

Directional Svgm

Anisotropy

Svgm. Fitting

omnidirectional svgms.

Now replace the set Nh of pairs approx. distance h apart by

a restricted version Nh; containing only those pairs (xi , xj )

where xi xj is oriented approximately in direction .

Enough data? Use directional semivariograms only if enough

data are available.

Geostatistics 1 36 / 47

Directional Semivariogram

Introduction

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Svgm. Models

Spherical Svgm.

Exponential Svgm.

Nugget Svgm.

Svgm. Cloud

Empirical Svgm.

Robust Estimator

Directional Svgm

Anisotropy

Svgm. Fitting

Geostatistics 1 37 / 47

Modeling Anisotropy

Introduction

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Svgm. Models

Spherical Svgm.

Exponential Svgm.

Nugget Svgm.

Svgm. Cloud

Empirical Svgm.

Robust Estimator

Directional Svgm

Anisotropy

Svgm. Fitting

Geometric anisotropy:

Local anisotropy:

drainage networks,. . .

Hard to explore, hard to model. . .

Geostatistics 1 38 / 47

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Svgm. Models

Spherical Svgm.

Exponential Svgm.

Nugget Svgm.

Svgm. Cloud

Empirical Svgm.

Robust Estimator

Directional Svgm

Anisotropy

Svgm. Fitting

Goal: Minimize the error e() of the svgm model with respect to

the empirical svgm as a function of the model parameters .

e() =

k

X

j=1

pairs |Nhj | how can we do better?

Geostatistics 1 39 / 47

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Svgm. Models

Spherical Svgm.

Exponential Svgm.

Nugget Svgm.

Svgm. Cloud

Empirical Svgm.

Robust Estimator

Directional Svgm

Anisotropy

Svgm. Fitting

(Cressie, 1985): In iteration i,

ei () =

k

X

j=1

(0)

where wj

(i)

(i)

Smaller semivariance more weight

Good fit near the origin.

Default method in the R package gstat

Geostatistics 1 40 / 47

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Svgm. Models

Spherical Svgm.

Exponential Svgm.

Nugget Svgm.

Svgm. Cloud

Empirical Svgm.

Robust Estimator

Directional Svgm

Anisotropy

Svgm. Fitting

estimation: Kitanidis (1985)

Depends on the assumption of a Gaussian (i.e. normal)

distribution

More often used in conjunction with spatial linear models

fitted by (restricted) maximum likelihood estimation

May be slow.

Geostatistics 1 41 / 47

Introduction

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Svgm. Models

Spherical Svgm.

Exponential Svgm.

Nugget Svgm.

Svgm. Cloud

Empirical Svgm.

Robust Estimator

Directional Svgm

Anisotropy

Svgm. Fitting

Geostatistics 1 42 / 47

Class Wrap-up

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Svgm. Models

Spherical Svgm.

Exponential Svgm.

Nugget Svgm.

Svgm. Cloud

Empirical Svgm.

Robust Estimator

Directional Svgm

Anisotropy

Svgm. Fitting

Introduction to the mathematical concepts of intrinsic and

stationary random functions

Ready for variogram analysis and kriging!

Geostatistics 1 43 / 47

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Some Basic

Probability

Theory

Expected value

Variance

Covariance

Geostatistics 1 44 / 47

Expected value

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

Semivariogram

Modeling

Some Basic

Probability Theory

Expected value

Variance

Covariance

X is the average of its outcomes weighted by its probability

distribution.

If the probability density function f of X exists,

Z

E(X) =

tf (t)dt.

E(X + Y ) = E(X) + E(Y ), i.e. the expectation is linear.

Geostatistics 1 45 / 47

Variance

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

squared variation of X around its mean value:

Semivariogram

Modeling

Some Basic

Probability Theory

Expected value

Variance

Covariance

E(X + Y ) = E(X) + E(Y ), i.e. the expectation is linear.

For uncorrelated X, Y , we have

Var(X + Y ) = VarX + VarY.

Standard deviation: (X) = VarX

Geostatistics 1 46 / 47

Covariance

Introduction

Intrinsic Random

Functions

is defined as:

Semivariogram

Modeling

Some Basic

Probability Theory

Expected value

Variance

Covariance

Negative: the higher, the lower

Zero: uncorrelated

X, Y independent X, Y uncorrelated

X, Y uncorrelated ; X, Y independent

Geostatistics 1 47 / 47

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