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ThePromisedLandCarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace

ThePromisedLand
ChristopheJaffrelot
OPED
MAY18,2015INDIANEXPRESS
SUMMARY

Indianeedstoindustrialize,butcanitdosoattheexpenseofitsfoodsecurity?

ThedevelopmentagendaoftheNarendraModigovernmentimpliesindustrialisation.TheBJPs2014
mandatewasindeedforjobcreation.Theneomiddleclass,whichModidefinedwhenhewasCMof
Gujaratasmadeupofaspiringcitydwellerswhohavejustemergedfrompoverty,supportedhimmore
widelythanthepoor.Thiswaspartlybecauseofthevikaspurushimagehehadacquiredbypresenting
hishomestateasamodel.Hehastocatertotheneedsofthisconstituency,apartfromtendingtothe
BJPsrelationshipwithmajorcorporatehouses.
Severalreformshavebeendecidedalreadyinordertofosterprivateinvestment,includingthereductionof
thecorporatetaxratefrom30to25percent.ButtoMakeinIndia,industrialistsneedfactories.Forthat,
theyneedland.ThatisoneofthethingstheywerelookingforwhentheydecidedtomakeinGujaratunder
Modischiefministership.Notonlywasthedecisionmakingquick,butthelandwasalsocheap.For
instance,oncetheTatagroupdecidedtoshifttheNanofactoryfromWestBengal,wherepeasantshad
foughtfortheirland,toGujarat,thedealwaswrappedupinnotime.MuchlandwasalsoallottedtoSEZs.
Theycoverabout27,000hectaresbutcompanieshaveallegedlysoldorleasedpartofthislandforvarious
purposes(includingrealestateorientedones)thathadnothingtodowiththeinitialindustrialisation
objective.CAGreportsinthepasthaveflaggedvariousirregularitiesinSEZs.
ThetransferoflandtononagriculturistswasmadeeasierinGujaratbythereformoftheBombayTenancy
andAgriculturalLandRules,asNikitaSudexplainsinLiberalisation,HinduNationalismandtheState:A
BiographyofGujarat.Thispieceofregulationprohibitedthepurchaseofagriculturallandbyanybodynot
residingwithineightkilometresoftheplot.Itmeantthatcitydwellerscouldnoteasilybuyland,which
thereforeremainedinthehandsofagriculturists.In1988,theCongressstategovernmentamendedthis
provision,restrictingittodroughtaffectedareas.WhentheBJPtookoverin1995,thepartydecidedthatno
permissionwouldberequiredfromtherevenueofficialsfortheconversionoffarmlandupto10hectaresto
nonagriculturalstatusinordertosetupabonafideindustrialunit.In1999,theBJPgovernmentalsotried
tomakepossiblethesaleofgaucharland(thatis,villagecommonsorpastoralland).Largescaleprotests
bythepastoralMaldharicommunityforcedittoabandonthisstep,buttheCMissuedagovernment
resolutionsealingthefateofthiskindofland,aswellasallwasteland.
InadditiontotheMaldharis,otherpeasantsofGujaratresistedsomeofthesedevelopments.InMahua,
whenanSEZof268hectareswasgrantedtoNirmatosetupacementplant,inadditiontoamininglease
onmorethan3,000hectaresalongthecoastlineareasofBhavnagardistrict,localBJPMLAKanubhai
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Kalsariaobjectedthatthewatertankonwhichthevillagersdependedwouldbedamaged.Sidelined,he
resignedfromthepartytofightthegovernmentspolicy.
ButthepeasantsofGujaratmobilisedmorevigorouslybehindtheRSSaffiliatedBharatiyaKisanSangh
whenthegovernmentdecidedtosignificantlyhikepowertariffsthanforthelandissue.Why?Because
Gujaratwasoneofthefewstateswherethetotalsurfaceofcultivablelandhadincreasedby37lakh
hectaresinthelastdecade.Why?BecauseofthecompletionoftheNarmadadam,which,after2001(the
yearModibecameCM),enabledGujarattoirrigatenewlands.Thedamhadbeenconceivedtoirrigateup
to1.8millionhectaresinthestateandby2012,theModigovernmentconsidered82.39percentofultimate
irrigationpotentialofsurfacewatertohavebeenachieved.
ThecompletionoftheNarmadaprojectwasresponsiblefortheremarkablegrowthofagricultureinGujarat,
whichthePlanningCommissionestimatedtobe8.46percentover200506to201112,whilethenational
averagestoodatonly3.82percent.Still,theprimarysectordeclinedfrom19.5percentofthegrossstate
domesticproductin200405toonly14.6percentin201011,whereastheshareofserviceswentupfrom
44to46percentandindustryjumpedfrom36.5to39.4percent,aclearsignofGujaratscapacityto
transitiontowardsindustrialisation.
ThissmoothtransitioninGujaratinadditiontopressuresfromthecorporatesectorandexpectations
fromtheneomiddleclasscouldexplainwhyModiissoadamantaboutamendingthelandacquisition
act.ButGujaratisnotIndia.Almosteverywhereelse,theamountofagriculturallandisshrinking.Thefall,at
thenationallevel,hasbeenof2.76millionhectaresbetween198889and200809.Anadditional4,06,000
hectareswaslostbetween200708and201011,mostlytourbanisationandindustrialisation.Partlyforthis
reasonandbecauseofpopulationgrowth,thepercapitaavailabilityofagriculturallandhasdeclinedfrom
0.34hectaresin195051to0.17hectaresin19992000and0.12hectaresin201011.Ontopofthis,
accordingtotheIndianCouncilforAgriculturalResearch,107millionhectaresaredegradedland
(becauseofsalinisation,watererosionetc).Certainly,Indiacouldexpandthecultivableareabyspreading
irrigationonly60millionofthe142millionhectarescultivatedtodayareirrigated.Butwatertablesare
gettinglower,especiallyinstateslikePunjabandHaryana.
Thisyear,forthefirsttimesince2010,Indiaisimporting80,000tonnesofwheatfromAustralia.Ofcourse,
thisisbecauseoftheunexpectedrainsthatdamagedthecropinthenorth.Butthiskindofaccidentcould
becomemorefrequentbecauseofclimatechange.Certainly,Indianeedstoindustrialise,butcanitdoso
attheexpenseofitsfoodsecurity?
ThisarticlewasoriginallypublishedintheIndianExpress.

AbouttheSouthAsiaProgram
TheCarnegieSouthAsiaPrograminformspolicydebatesrelatingtotheregionssecurity,economy,and
politicaldevelopment.FromthewarinAfghanistantoPakistansinternaldynamicstoU.S.engagementwith
India,theProgramsrenownedteamofexpertsofferindepthanalysisderivedfromtheiruniqueaccessto
thepeopleandplacesdefiningSouthAsiasmostcriticalchallenges.

RelatedTopics
SouthAsia
India
Economy
EmergingEconomies
GlobalTrade
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Sourcehttp://carnegieendowment.org/2015/05/18/promisedland/i8pd

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