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NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll

October 2015
New Hampshire Questionnaire
Screener
<Marist Poll Introduction> Are you 18 years of age or older?
Do you consider your permanent home address to be in New Hampshire?
HH SELECTION LANDLINE FRAME ONLY
GENDER GUESS
October 2015: Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1196, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Registered voters: n=966, MOE +/- 3.2%;
Residents: n=1121, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Registered voters: n=910, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1037, MOE +/- 3.0%; February 2015: Registered voters:
n=887, MOE +/- 3.3%; Residents: n=1013, MOE +/- 3.1%
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as
president?
October 2015
September 2015
July 2015
February 2015
REGISTERED VOTERS
43
Approve
43
43
41
52
Disapprove
51
53
53
5
Unsure
7
5
6
100
Total
100
100
100
October 2015
September 2015
July 2015
February 2015
RESIDENTS
43
Approve
42
42
41
50
Disapprove
51
52
52
7
Unsure
7
6
7
100
Total
100
100
100
October 2015: Registered independents n=451, MOE +/- 4.6%; September 2015: Registered independents n=413, MOE +/- 4.8%; July
2015: Registered independents n=395, MOE +/- 4.9%
Now, thinking about the 2016 presidential primary in New Hampshire are you
more likely to vote in the New Hampshire:
October 2015
September 2015
July 2015
REGISTERED INDEPENDENTS
Republican primary
37
36
39
Democratic primary
35
30
28
Wait to vote in the general election in November
26
33
30
Not planning to vote
2
1
2
Total
100
100
100
October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=450, MOE +/ -4.6%; September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=413, MOE +/- 4.8%; July 2015:
Potential Republican Electorate: n=401, MOE +/- 4.9; February 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=381, MOE +/- 5.0%
If the 2016 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire were held
today, whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who
are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate):
October 2015
September 2015
July 2015
February 2015
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
NA
Donald Trump
21
28
21
NA
Carly Fiorina
16
6
2
14
18
Jeb Bush
11
8
5
6
Marco Rubio
10
3
6
7
Ben Carson
10
11
6
13
Chris Christie
7
5
7
NA
John Kasich
6
12
5
6
Ted Cruz
6
5
4
14
Rand Paul
5
5
3
7
Mike Huckabee
1
2
<1
<1
NA
George Pataki
2
<1
<1
1
Lindsey Graham
1
<1
<1
<1
1
Rick Santorum
<1
1
<1
NA
Bobby Jindal
<1
<1
<1
NA
Jim Gilmore
12
15
Scott Walker
NA
4
<1
<1
1
Rick Perry
NA
13
Undecided
6
8
13
Total

100

100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: New Hampshire October 2015; Page 1

100

100

October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate Preference: n=412, MOE +/- 4.8%; September
2015: Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate Preference: n=348, MOE +/- 5.3%
Who is your second choice for the 2016 Republican presidential primary in
New Hampshire (including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a
candidate):
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
October 2015
September 2015
WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
Carly Fiorina
18
12
Ben Carson
15
16
Marco Rubio
11
9
Jeb Bush
10
10
Chris Christie
9
6
John Kasich
8
6
Donald Trump
8
9
Rand Paul
6
5
Ted Cruz
6
9
Mike Huckabee
3
3
Bobby Jindal
2
1
<1
Lindsey Graham
1
1
Rick Santorum
1
<1
<1
George Pataki
<1
<1
Jim Gilmore
Scott Walker
NA
4
Rick Perry
NA
2
Undecided
2
7
Total
100
100
October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=404, MOE +/- 4.9%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=356, MOE +/5.2%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=329, MOE +/- 5.4%
If the 2016 Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire were held
today, whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who
are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate):
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
Lincoln Chafee
Martin O'Malley
Jim Webb
Undecided
Total

October 2015
48
39
2
2
1
9
100

September 2015
49
38
1
1
2
8
100

July 2015
34
47
2
5
1
11
100

October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=404, MOE +/- 4.9%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=356, MOE +/- 5.2%; July 2015:
Potential Democratic Electorate: n=329, MOE +/- 5.4%; February 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=309, MOE +/- 5.6%
If the 2016 Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire were held
today, whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who
are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and if Vice President Joe Biden
enters the race):
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
Martin O'Malley
Jim Webb
Lincoln Chafee
Undecided
Total

October 2015
42
28
18
2
1
1
9
100

September 2015
41
32
16
1
1
<1
8
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: New Hampshire October 2015; Page 2

July 2015
32
42
12
3
1
2
10

February 2015
13
69
8
<1
2
NA
7

100

100

October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=404, MOE +/- 4.9%; Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1196,
MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=356, MOE +/- 5.2%; Registered voters: n=966, MOE +/- 3.2%;
Residents: n=1121, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=329, MOE +/- 5.4%; Registered voters: n=910, MOE +/3.2%; Residents: n=1037, MOE +/- 3.0%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Hillary
Clinton?
October 2015
September 2015
July 2015
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

73
24
3
100
October 2015
36
59
5
100
October 2015

69
27
4
100
September 2015
36
60
5
100
September 2015

71
23
7
100
July 2015
37
57
6
100
July 2015

36
59
6
100

36
58
6
100

37
56
7
100

October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=404, MOE +/- 4.9%; Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%;
Residents: n=1196, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=356, MOE +/- 5.2%;
Registered voters: n=966, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1121, MOE +/- 2.9%;
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Joe Biden?
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

October 2015

September 2015

78
15
7
100
October 2015
48
41
11
100
October 2015

76
17
7
100
September 2015
46
43
12
100
September 2015

47
41
13
100

44
42
14
100

October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=404, MOE +/- 4.9%; Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1196,
MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=356, MOE +/- 5.2%; Registered voters: n=966, MOE +/- 3.2%;
Residents: n=1121, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=329, MOE +/- 5.4%; Registered voters: n=910, MOE +/3.2%; Residents: n=1037, MOE +/- 3.0%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Bernie
Sanders?
October 2015
September 2015
July 2015
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

79
10
10
100
October 2015
47
37
15
100
October 2015

79
9
12
100
September 2015
46
33
21
100
September 2015

65
14
22
100
July 2015
41
29
30
100
July 2015

46
35
19
100

45
31
24
100

38
29
33
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: New Hampshire October 2015; Page 3

October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=450, MOE +/- 4.6%; Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1196,
MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=413, MOE +/- 4.8%; Registered voters: n=966, MOE +/- 3.2%;
Residents: n=1121, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=401, MOE +/- 4.9%; Registered voters: n=910, MOE +/3.2%; Residents: n=1037, MOE +/- 3.0
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Jeb Bush?
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

October 2015

September 2015

July 2015

58
35
7
100
October 2015
38
48
14
100
October 2015

49
38
13
100
September 2015
34
51
14
100
September 2015

56
32
12
100
July 2015
40
45
15
100
July 2015

36
47
17
100

31
51
17
100

38
44
18
100

October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=450, MOE +/- 4.6%; Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1196,
MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=413, MOE +/- 4.8%; Registered voters: n=966, MOE +/- 3.2%;
Residents: n=1121, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=401, MOE +/- 4.9%; Registered voters: n=910, MOE +/3.2%; Residents: n=1037, MOE +/- 3.0
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Donald
Trump?
October 2015
September 2015
July 2015
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

47
47
6
100
October 2015
31
64
5
100
October 2015

56
39
5
100
September 2015
34
59
6
100
September 2015

31
63
6
100

34
58
8
100

October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=450, MOE +/- 4.6%; Registered voters:
n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1196, MOE +/- 2.8%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Carly
Fiorina?
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

October 2015
68
17
15
100
October 2015
43
31
26
100
October 2015
40
30
30
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: New Hampshire October 2015; Page 4

39
53
8
100
July 2015
27
67
7
100
July 2015
27
65
8
100

October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=450, MOE +/- 4.6%; Registered voters:
n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1196, MOE +/- 2.8%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Ben
Carson?
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

October 2015
69
13
17
100
October 2015
42
31
27
100
October 2015
39
30
31
100

October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=450, MOE +/- 4.6%; Registered voters:
n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1196, MOE +/- 2.8%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Marco
Rubio?
October 2015
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
Favorable
68
Unfavorable
17
Unsure
15
Total
100
October 2015
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
40
Unfavorable
34
Unsure
26
Total
100
October 2015
RESIDENTS
Favorable
37
Unfavorable
33
Unsure
30
Total
100

September 2015
NA

July 2015
49
18
33
100
July 2015
28
34
38
100
July 2015
26
33
41
100

October 2015: Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; September 2015: Registered voters: n=966, MOE +/- 3.2%; February 2015: Registered voters: n=887,
MOE +/- 3.3%
If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if
the candidates are:
October 2015
September 2015
July 2015
February 2015
REGISTERED VOTERS
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
42
43
NA
48
Jeb Bush, the Republican
49
48
42
Undecided
9
8
10
100
Total
100
100
October 2015: Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; September 2015: Registered voters: n=966, MOE +/- 3.2%
If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if
the candidates are:
October 2015
September 2015
REGISTERED VOTERS
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
48
46
Donald Trump, the Republican
45
45
Undecided
8
8
Total
100
100
October 2015: Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%
If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if
the candidates are:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
Carly Fiorina, the Republican
Undecided
Total

October 2015
42
50
8
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: New Hampshire October 2015; Page 5

October 2015: Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%


If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if
the candidates are:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Bernie Sanders, the Democrat
Jeb Bush, the Republican
Undecided
Total

October 2015
46
46
8
100

October 2015: Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%


If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if
the candidates are:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Bernie Sanders, the Democrat
Donald Trump, the Republican
Undecided
Total

October 2015
52
42
6
100

October 2015: Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%


If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if
the candidates are:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Bernie Sanders, the Democrat
Carly Fiorina, the Republican
Undecided
Total

October 2015
47
45
8
100

October 2015: Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1196, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Registered voters: n=966, MOE +/- 3.2%;
Residents: n=1121, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Registered voters: n=910, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1037, MOE +/- 3.0%; February 2015: Registered voters:
n=887, MOE +/- 3.3%; Residents: n=1013, MOE +/- 3.1%
Are you male or female?
October 2015
September 2015
July 2015
February 2015
REGISTERED VOTERS
Male
48
49
48
49
Female
52
51
52
51
Total
100
100
100
100
October 2015
September 2015
July 2015
February 2015
RESIDENTS
Male
49
49
49
49
Female
51
51
51
51
Total
100
100
100
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: New Hampshire October 2015; Page 6