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Changes in Risk
Executive Summary
After McKinsey and Co. released the Agents of the Future: The Evolution of Property &
Casualty Insurance Distribution report this summer, the industry reacted predictably.
First, fear and panic. My email browser lit up with messages from clients and
friends who felt anxious and frightened about the projections. Then, industry
strongholds (and legitimate advocates) declaring that the outsiders at
There are signs now...
McKinsey were dead wrong, didnt understand
that the economics of
the industry or were issuing opinions, not facts.
I have no bias for or against McKinsey. They earned their reputation the hard
way. Serious research and analysis. Penetrating insights and observations.
(Even when you disagree with them.) Youd have a hard time finding a
serious business executive who thought they were out of touch or rash. As I
read their report, I see their observations based on the very same empirical
evidence available to all of us who are serious students of our own industry:
Local agents wrote 80% of new Private Passenger Autos (PPA) in 2003. They only wrote
63% in 2010.
Since 2005 the Independent Channels PPA market share decreased from 34% to 31%
(while the Direct Channel increased from 21% to 28%).
In 2010, 22% more quote requests were bound online than the previous year. (38.8
million online quote requests were submitted in 2010.)
So do these changes in consumer behavior signal the undoing of the agent channel?
The short answer is no. And Ill explain why in this report. But does it sound the alarm
bell for agents to change, re-strategize and re-assess their value proposition. The short
answer is an unequivocal yes. That, too, should become clear in this report.
The knee-jerk response of many industry stalwarts - advocates who I count as friends is reactionary, inadequate and potentially dangerous, causing harm to the very
constituency they intend to protect.
In this State of the Industry report you will learn about:
The nature of disruptive trends and how other industries were revolutionized by
innovative technology and trends
n The substantial and irreversible changes in insurance consumer behavior.
n The changes in carrier behavior and what this means to local agents.
n The impact that user based insurance (UBI) will have on the auto insurance industry
and 4 trends leading to an accident-free world.
n Recommended actions and strategic responses for retail agents.
n
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In this section well briefly review examples of how trends have disrupted other
industries so that we can recognize similar signals in our own industry.
In a world thats changing, standing still means that youre losing ground. Since the
introduction of digital technologies, the world economy has witnessed the disruption
even the destruction of numerous stable and solid industries and companies that didnt
adapt to larger trends.
While its tempting for the small business owner to focus their attention on their day job
the consuming tasks of running their day-to-day operation the serious entrepreneur
keepsone eye on the world, monitoring trends and global changes.
Lets glance at the nature of trends and how the Old Guard mindset affected the leaders
in other industries. Hopefully this will serve as a wakeup call for many agents.
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Trend #1:
Consumer Behavior Has Changed
In this section well review key takeaways from major reports by respected names
in including: McKinsey & Co., J.D. Power, comScore, A.M. Best, The Independent
Insurance Agents of America, and Celent. I encourage you to consider this
information with an open mind and resist the urge to draw any conclusions
before seeing the data.
Clearly, the consumer has gone digital, but thats not the only consumer behavior thats
changed. Theyre also thinking about insurance differently. Ill explain that in the three
forces that are driving commoditization (e.g., price is the predominant advertising
message today).
Well also review J.D. Powers Overall Index Score which reveals remarkably powerful
insights on what it takes to thrive as a retail agent. J.D. Power asked, How likely are you to
respond to a price increase? See how many consumers would shop and who would stay
no matter what.
As you study this data youll notice some alarming trends. But, if you look closely, youll
also see some silver linings. For example, youll see consumers are most satisfied when
they interact with a local agent who uses emerging technology. So while consumer
behavior is changing it does not mean that this is the end of an era for local agents. But
you do need to pay attention if you want to be around in 5-10 years. Lets get right into
it
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But, lest we think they are a lone voice in the wilderness, lets consider what some other
respected sources are saying too:
...emerging trends are dramatically reshaping customer expectations in the personal
auto insurance market.
The internet has dramatically transformed consumer behavior and shifted their
interaction with insurance providers, as well as their expectations of quality...
So either the most respected industry observers are all passing around the same pitcher
of after school Kool-Aid, or, maybe we should pause, take stock and strategize.
Local agents still continue to make up the majority of auto insurance purchasing. But
as you can see from the chart on the right, overall consumers are shifting towards
purchasing auto insurance through less personal outlets.
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Consumers are not just spending more time researching insurance online, theyre also
requesting more quotes online. In 2010 there were 38.8 million online quotes submitted,
a 21% increase over the previous year. And of those 38.8 million quotes, 72% went to
GEICO, E-surance, and Progressive (See Figure 2 below).
And what about all those consumers who have not purchased online before? Well,
according to comScore in 2012, 35% said they were likely to do so. In 2009 only 30%
said they were likely. Clearly, the consumer is rapidly becoming more comfortable doing
insurance business online, just as they have become comfortable doing business with
other industries online.One last fact worth considering when it comes to the consumer
going digital comes from comScore, The number of customers who have only interacted
via digital channels in the past 12 months has nearly doubled in size, compared with
2007, and now represent approximately one in six customers. So one in six people ONLY
interact with this industry online.
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Then they analyzed the customer satisfaction level of each of those five ways. Can you
guess which way had the highest customer satisfaction rating? If you guessed #3, agents
who use emerging technology, then youd be right. This was true for both Baby Boomers,
who had an overall satisfaction index score of 852, and Generation Y who scored 822. See
figure 3 on previous page for more information.
J.D. Power said, ...emerging trends are dramatically reshaping customer expectations in the
personal auto insurance market. In other words, the internet has changed consumers
expectations. Remarkably, their report did not analyze the quality of the communication
interactions, but clearly determined that the mere use of emerging technology generated
substantial financial benefits for the business.
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Magic of 852
According to the research, an 852 Customer Satisfaction Index score will, overall, deliver a
reward of a 95.5% retention rate. However, a lower end score of 750 will punish the
business with a meager 82% retention (see Figure 4).
What does that mean for the typical agency? It means that for every million dollars in
income, the agency would see an annual bump of $130,000 and a remarkable cumulative
10-year increase of $3,694,595 by increasing their retention from 82% to 95.5%.
Maintaining a high Index Score is also important if you want your customers to refer you.
For example, the research shows that if you have a score of 852 then roughly 63% of your
customers definitely intend to recommend you. But only 29% if your score is 750. So the
bottom line is that customers are happy when you use emerging technology and when
customers are happy you make more money. I mentioned this quote from A.M.
Best earlier but its worth repeating here, The internet has dramatically transformed
consumer behavior and shifted their interaction with insurance providers, as well as their
expectations of quality...
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Trend #2:
Carrier Behavior Has Changed (And the Rise of the Direct Channel)
Consumer behavior is not the only force thats leading this industry to a tipping point.
Local agents also need to be aware of major changes in carrier behavior.
One of those changes is what I call carrier personification. Theres now an advertising
persona most of the major direct channel brands. The reason this is so significant is
because its a signal to the retail side of the industry that carriers are increasingly
willing to develop a perceived sense of relationship directly with the consumer and
bypass the agency channel altogether.
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Lets look at who the big ad spenders are (I think you can guess who #1 is). Well also
look at the result of what that type of advertising has done in terms of acquiring market
share for the top 10 private passenger auto insurers.
Well also review the auto market distribution by channel so you can see the trends over
the last 15 years. And finally we will review the combined ratio by channel in order to
determine which channel is most cost effective.
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Trend #3:
An Accident Free World
Now, lets discuss the third major trend in our industry: moderation in risk that could
potentially have a huge impact on private passenger auto premiums. Simply put, think of
the impact that an accident-free world would have on the auto insurance market.
According to a recent report by the research and consulting firm, Celent, titled, A
Scenario: The End of Auto Insurance: What Happens When There Are (Almost) No
Accidents, there are four forces at work moving us to an accident-free world. The report
describes a dramatic but likely scenario in which local and federal governments in the
U.S. would encourage or regulate the use of three currently available technologies:
telematics, collision avoidance and automated traffic law enforcement. Additionally,
they identify an emerging technology that may receive wide adoption sooner than most
people anticipate: driverless cars.
Consequently, there may be a very different world in regard to the amount of premium
and the amount of risk that flows through, not only the agent channels, but the industry
in general. And now is the time to prepare.
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A Quick Summary of What These Trends Are Telling the Retail Agent
Fear, despair, panic on one end. Denial on the other. Neither extreme serves the interests
of the retail agent.
Rather, we advise a sober discernment of precisely what the trends are and a seasoned
and appropriate strategic response to each of them.
A very brief summary of each of the three sources of change looks like this:
Changes in consumer behavior. The consumer in every generation has gone digital.
They have, so to speak, voted with their fingers, using their computers, mobile phones
and mobile devices to interact with the insurance industry. The silver lining? They have
made this clear: use emerging technology, and we will reward you. And those rewards
are material: in retention, customer acquisition and loyalty. Note: while the majority
of research focuses on the personal lines customers use of technology, our own firms
research reveals that the commercial lines buyer likely spends more time researching
insurance options online, having so much at stake with their purchase.
Changes in carrier behavior. The carrier community, as a whole, is moving in one
direction: toward a more direct relationship with the consumer. Just as they did with the
introduction of direct bill, carriers are absorbing more consumer-facing roles traditionally
owned by the agent: service, sales, and, of course, underwriting. Several major carriers
will continue to absorb agent market share. Others who rely on agents will likely
increase their consumer connection, even expanding their direct sales channels.
However, the savvy agent or broker will see a silver lining here, as well. The carrier
community is increasingly focusing their message to the agent: your job is to get and
keep good clients. As the value chain adjusts, the agents role is increasingly clear. Market.
Thats your job.
Changes in risk. Potential modifications in risk could affect the entire industry top to
bottom. If, in fact, we even approach an accident free world through the adoption of
accident-prevention technology, the volume of premium dollars flowing through each
channel could be significantly reduced. That said, its harder to find the silver lining. The
savvy agency strategist should consider this information carefully, creating lean systems
that deliver customer value as efficiently as possible, while pondering appropriate
diversification to the agencys book of business.
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The 3 Rules
Two of Deloittes directors, Michael
E. Raynor and Mumtaz Ahmed,
analyzed the financial statements
of 25,000 companies that were
traded on the U.S. exchanges from
1966 to 2010. From that
information they identified three
rules of behavior of the most
successful companies.
Rule #1: Be Better before Cheaper
In other words, compete on value differentiators other than price. Innovation is the
business of creating value. The retail agent must, increasingly, seek to add value, not just
pass it on. The local agent must get out of the commodity business and find ways to
delight your customers. For more information about this please email us and ask for a
copy of my book, The Agency Survival Handbook at support@agencyrevolution.com.
Rule #2: Revenue before Cost
This means you need to prioritize increasing revenue over reducing cost. Carriers are
increasingly clear on their expectations of agents: get and keep good clients. That
is the job of marketing, and, as other, former agency roles diminish, the agents job
becomes clear: be a great marketer. For more information about how other agents have
successfully grown, please email us and ask for a copy of The 10X Workbook at
support@agencyrevolution.com.
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Peter Drucker
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Conclusion.
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Bibliography
McKinsey & Co. (2013). Agents of the Future: The Evolution of Property and Casualty
Insurance Distribution. Retrieved from, http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/
Financial_Services/Knowledge_Highlights/Recent_Reports/~/media/Reports/
Financial_Services/FutureAgents_V_FINAL.ashx
comScore, Inc. (2011). Online Auto Insurance Shopping Report. Retrieved from,
http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Presentations_and_Whitepapers/
2011/2011_Online_Auto_Insurance_Report
comScore, Inc. (2012). Online Auto Insurance Shopping Report. Retrieved from,
http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Presentations_and_Whitepapers/2012/
The_2012_Online_Auto_Insurance_Report
J.D. Power and Associates. (2012). Insurance Shopping Study: The Role of the Web in
Shopping for Insurance. Retrieved from, http://img.en25.com/Web/JDPower/
12_4894_ISS_MD%20FINAL_043012.pdf
A.M. Best. (2013). Special Report: U.S. Auto Insurance - Trend Review. Distribution
Trends Continue to Shift in the Private Passenger Automobile Market. Retrieved from,
http://www3.ambest.com/bestweek/purchase.asp?record_code=216745
Independent Insurance Agents & Brokers of America, Inc. (2011). Property-Casualty
Insurance Market: Opportunities & Competitive Challenges For Independent Agents &
Brokers. Retrieved from, http://www.independentagent.com/Resources/Research/
SiteAssets/MarketShareReport/default/2013%20IIABA%20Market%20Share%20
FINAL.pdf
Celent. (2012). A Scenario: The End of Auto Insurance: What Happens When There Are
(Almost) No Accidents. Retrieved from, http://www.celent.com/reports/scenario-endautoinsurance
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My job, as I see it, is to look deeply at the insurance industry and tell the truth as I see
it. Ideally, if I see a problem and that is not a difficulty these days I can find or create
a solution, package it and deliver it. (Or, more likely, the members of my team at Agency
Revolution will create that solution.) Hopefully, it shows up on the desk or in the lives
of people who share similar values and want to fight for the retail delivery system (or
maybe just fight for their own agency). Best of all, it may show up with some elegance,
and, God willing, some beauty, too.
As they say at the Oscars, I have too many people to thank and apologize to those I
missed. But, at the very least, I must acknowledge:
Jeff Yates, who provided an inspriration to everyone who fought this good fight.
Enjoy your retirement, my friend.
Kathy Gorman, who has pushed me to deliver my best, and doesnt hold back if I
can get better.
Mark LaLonde, who remains one of New Englands relentless warriors for good.
Tom Reid and Deb Ambrose, who help Canadian brokers grab the future of
their dreams.
Kitty Ambers, who has asked me on repeated occasions, to say something that
matters. I hope I fulfilled.
And, last, but not least, my friend and proofreader of many years, Mary Ann Jestel,
who quietly but gently spotted my numerous errors. You, too, enjoy your
retirement. (I hope I didnt wear you out!)
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Michael Jans
is the CEO and Founder of Agency Revolution. Independent Agent
Magazine called him the Insurance Marketing Maven, and Professional
Agent Magazine called him a marketing genius. His clients often call
him the Millionaire Maker because of the powerful marketing and
business strategies he delivers to insurance agencies.
He has created, or consulted on, marketing campaigns for 213 different
insurance niches. Michael has coached, trained and consulted with more than
11,000 agency principals over the last 20 years and is a popular speaker at industry
events. He is the author of The P&C Marketing Bible, The CSR Money Bible, The Agents
Road Map, The Agency Survival Handbook and over 37 courses, programs and workshops
on marketing and business strategy for insurance agents.
Michael was the Executive Vice President of the Professional Insurance Agents in Oregon,
Washington, Idaho, Montana and Alaska for seven years. And he ran the fastest growing
affiliate of The Certified Insurance Counselor Program. Prior to that he was the Executive
Director of several non-profits in the areas of poverty eradication, refugee resettlement
and community action.
His company, Agency Revolution, provides digital marketing solutions to insurance
agencies and employs over 30 people in Bend, OR.
Agency Revolution actively supports the work of Meals On Wheels, which was founded
by Michaels father, Paul Jans, in 1955.
For more information...
Michaels State of the Industry Address was first delivered at the 2013 Insurance
Marketing Boot Camp in a live, two hour presentation. To find out how you can get a
copy of this presentation, please call 800-606-0477.
To schedule a free demo of the Agency Revolution Digital Marketing System visit:
www.agencyrevolution.com/request-demo
You can also connect with us on:
Facebook (Company Page): www.facebook.com/AgencyRevolution
Facebook (Michaels Page): www.facebook.com/MichaelJansOnline
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/michaeljans
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Michael Jans looks the insurance industry square in the eye - and tells
the truth. Agents would be wise to listen.
Ely Kaplansky, Kaplansky Insurance Agency, MA
Michael Jans isnt just the best marketer in the insurance industry.
Hes our best philosopher. Pay attention to what he is saying.
Jeff Rounds, Libke Insurance, WA
Nobody looks deeper into the soul of the insurance industry than
Michael Jans.
Tammy Leseuer, Bancorp Insurance, OR
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Agency Revolution
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