Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
IN UNCERTAIN TIMES
Held on
January 11-13, 2012
CLIMBS Training Institute
Cagayan de Oro
Consultants/Facilitators:
Prof. Vicente R. Valdellon, Jr.
Jowell L. Tan
and
VRV Management
and Property Consultancy, Inc.
MODULES
MODULE #1
Liquid Funds
MODULE #2
Anticipate
MODULE #3
Uncertainty
MODULE #4
Manage
MODULE #5
Issues and Concerns
of the Future
MODULE #1
Liquid Funds
FICCO
2010 BALANCE SHEET
(in P Millions)
ASSETS
Current Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents
Loans Receivable, net
Other Receivables
Inventories
Funds Held by Trustees/Fund Managers
Prepayments and Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Non-Current Assets
Investments in Available-for-Sale Securities
Held-to-Maturity Investments
Investments in Non-Marketable Securities
Loans Receivable, net
Property and Equipment, net
Real and Other Properties Acquired, net
Intangible Assets, net
Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-Current Assets
TOTAL ASSETS
LIABILITIES AND MEMBERS EQUITY
Current Liabilities
Deposit Liabilities
Accounts Payable and Accrued Expenses
Bills Payable
Interest on Share Capital and Patronage Refund Payable
Unearned Income
Total Current Liabilities
Non-Current Liabilities
Trust Fund MAF
Other Non-Current Liabilities
Retirement Liability
Total Non-Current Liabilities
686.9
1,091.0
22.8
25.3
115.6
10.7
1,952.3
12.5
6.1
33.2
2,383.6
169.8
21.5
2.8
6.3
2,635.8
4,588.1
2,095.9
108.4
23.1
195.5
0.1
2,423.0
246.7
16.3
9.3
272.3
Total Liabilities
2,695.3
Members Equity
1,892.8
4,588.1
Current Assets
Cash on Hand & In Banks
Loans Receivable, net
Other Receivables
Unused Office Supplies
Prepaid Expenses
Short-Term Investments
Total Current Assets
Non-Current Assets
Investments
Long-Term Investments Cooperatives
Long-Term Investments Others
Total Long-Term Investments
Property and Equipment, net
Other Assets
Total Non-Current Assets
TOTAL ASSETS
92.5
266.2
12.4
0.4
0.9
8.3
380.7
11.9
23.3
35.2
19.6
107.9
162.7
543.4
40.3
7.4
4.0
3.4
0.9
0.5
0.5
0.3
57.3
10.1
36.9
47.0
10.3
0.8
11.1
LIQUID-FUND POOL
Cash
Inflows
Cash
Outflows
UNMANAGED
Cash
Inflows
Cash
Outflows
MANAGED
Cash
+ Bank Deposits
+ Investments
Interest
Earned
Yield
2002
82.72
2.83
3.42%
2003
93.21
2.89
3.10%
2004
97.76
4.50
4.60%
2005
144.19
4.22
2.93%
2006
177.74
5.66
3.18%
2007
220.65
5.47
2.48%
2008
362.33
12.27
3.39%
(Oct)
(annualized)
Cash
Outflows
Liquid funds
beyond one months
cash needs:
what your coop
does not need
for this months
day-to-day operations.
CLIMBS
LIQUID FUNDS PORTFOLIO
(29 February 2004)
Investments Yields
Operational Accounts
P 3.85 Mn
1.000%
2.75
3.410%
4.21
5.867%
12.91
9.370%
8.84
9.771%
21.56
7.755%
Contingency Reserves
(probable claims of 6-9 months)
P 54.12 Mn 7.621%
ave
6.435%
MODULE #2
Anticipate
WHY WE NEED
TO ANTICIPATE
(some examples)
HOW OTHERS
ANTICIPATE PURPOSIVELY
SIDC (2004)
(for 2005)
Funds Needed for Operations
of the 18 Business Lines
Capital Expenditures
Foreseen for Business Lines
Transferrable Funds
into Operations and/or Capital Expenditures
FICOBank (2009)
Operating Account (daily banking operations)
BSP-Required Reserves
Contingency Provisions (big withdrawals/loans)
Capital Expenditures for Branching & IT
COVEYS QUADRANTS
Quadrant 1
Urgent
and
Important
Quadrant 2
Important
but
Not Yet
Urgent
Quadrant 3
Quadrant 4
Urgent
but
Not Important
Not Urgent
and
Not Important
ORGANIZE
and SAVE UP
for
FUTURE USE
identified
How much?
For what?
By when?
MANAGEMENT
Anticipate!
Planning
Preparasi
Organizing
Organasi
Controlling
Penetrasi
Directing
The
end-in-mind
comes first.
The
technical
ways/means
only 2nd.
MODULE #3
Uncertainty
THE MEANING
OF UNCERTAINTY
G-M-O Matrix
(a synthesis)
Goals
Moves
Outcomes
Setting
clear
clear
clear
certainty
clear
clear
unclear
risk
clear
unclear
unclear
uncertainty
unclear
unclear
unclear
ambiguity
HAPPENINGS
OVERSEAS
the relevant
and more notable
COUNTRYSIDE
ONGOINGS
universal and commercial banks
into the countryside
lending, microfinancing, buying RBs
coop growth all around
(many will become billionaires)
more affordability, bankability, more knowhow
multiple branching
inter-coop competition, membership
overlapping
foreign investors
buying into rural banks (RBs)
expanding RBs microfinance portfolio
FEARLESS FORECASTS
Impact on Coops
fixed-income rates will stay low
not just this year
but in the next 3 years
continuous downward pressures
on lending rates
on savings and time deposit rates
bonds outlook
bright in terms of relative safety
lousy in terms of earnings yields
equities outlook
promising for those Philippine-market-oriented
(esp energy, property, telecoms)
problematic for those heavily export-oriented
FEARLESS
PRESCRIPTIONS
How Coops Should Move
contingency buffers
and liquid funds policies
will be needed
but dont keep
too many defensive funds
earning very low yields
liquid funds portfolio
will have to go aggressive
without becoming reckless
coops now obliged
to plan out, and engage in
high-yielding project investments
for better member care
be very clear
on the whats (purposes) of liquid funds
to better determine the hows
of managing liquid funds
RATE INDICATIONS
(6th January 2012)
Savings Deposit
Time Deposit
30 days
1 year
0.25%-1%
2%-4.625%
2.75-5.25%
SDA
4.6875%
1.381%
Metrobank, RCBC,
UCPB, Sterling,
Bank of Commerce
various banks
3.19-7.08%
3.38-9.07%
as of 23 Dec 11
8.92-15.09%
Commercial Paper
(coupon rate)
8.720%
10.000%
11.550%
Preferred Stock
(coupon rate)
9.4578%
Ayala Corp
Common Stock
5%-6%
dividend
yield
PLDT, Globe,
China Bank, GMA7,
Ginebra San Miguel
MUTUAL FUNDS
(sampling from Business World)
1-Year Returns (%)
8th Jan 09 5th Jan 12
Stock Funds
(invested in stocks/equities)
ATR Kim Eng Equity Opportunity Fund
First Metro Save and Learn Equity Fund
Philam Strategic Growth Fund, Inc
Philequity Fund, Inc
Philequity PSE Index Fund Inc
Philequity Stock Index Fund Corp
Sun Life Prosperity Equity Fund, Inc
United Fund, Inc
(35.4)
(26.48)
(32.69)
(35.38)
(35.06)
(42.37)
(31.69)
(11.80)
(1.00)
7.48
3.23
6.86
8.46
4.85
2.95
(2.27)
Balanced Funds
(a mix between stocks/equities
and fixed-income instruments)
First Metro Save and Learn Balanced Fund
GSIS Mutual Fund, Inc
MFCP Kabuhayan Fund
Optima Balanced Fund, Inc
Philam Fund, Inc
Sun Life Prosperity Balanced Fund, Inc
(3.68)
(26.55)
(24.60)
(19.84)
(27.49)
(19.22)
5.99
1.38
(2.11)
6.25
3.34
3.23
Bond Funds
(all into fixed-income instruments)
ALFM Peso Bond Fund, Inc
Cocolife Fixed Income Fund Inc
Ekklesia Mutual Fund Inc
First Metro Save and Learn Fixed Income
Philam Bond Fund, Inc
Philequity Peso Bond Fund
Prudentialife Fixed Income Fund Inc
Sun Life Prosperity Bond Fund, Inc
Sun Life Prosperity GS Fund
4.47
5.51
2.03
2.14
2.53
3.19
(2.39)
2.06
1.80
6.36
7.05
9.97
12.86
6.17
8.68
2.06
7.44
4.89
MODULE #4
Manage
WHAT A MANAGED
INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
LOOKS LIKE
Coop ABC
(30 November 2002)
Investments
Ave Yields
P 2.361 Mn
1.000 %
Regulator-Required Reserves
2.528
5.590 %
Contingency Reserves
5.679
5.178 %
3.069
5.605 %
10.463
4.765
10.640 %
10.441 %
Day-to-Day Operations
P 28.865 Mn
7.77 %
WHAT A MANAGED
INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
LOOKS LIKE
How Coop ABC Manages
Its Investment Portfolio
(30 November 2002)
Institutions
Instruments
Standards:
Land Bank
Union Bank
BPI Far East
EPCI Bank
34%
25%
23%
18%
P 10.3 Mn
Exotics:
Trust Banking
Coops (15)
Philam Asset
56%
31%
13%
P 18.6 Mn
Investment
Appetite
Liquidity
Contingencies
Growth
Profitability
8%
28%
11%
53%
P 28.9 Mn
8%
16%
20%
11%
9%
36%
P28.9 Mn
Tenors
30-31-35 days
60 days
89-90-91 days
180 days
360-365 days
3 to 5 years
12%
5%
14%
4%
25%
40%
P 28.9 Mn
Yields
1.000%
5.090%
9.925%
5.070%
7.590%
10.640%
7.77 %
planning
for
the
future
Operational System
for managing day-to-day activities
Block 2
reserves required
by regulatory agencies
(if any)
Block 3
Block 4
Block 5
funds we reserve
for contingencies
(self-imposed)
funds we reserve
(or are saving up)
for capital expenditures
no clear future use yet
ready to be redeployed
to other blocks (as and
when needed)
can be catch basin
for centralized funds
before redeployment
o
p
t
i
m
i
z
e
MANAGING
THE BLOCK SYSTEM
Determine the amounts of the Blocks properly
(sizing up each Block). Review quarterly.
Adjust upwards/downwards, redeploying where
needed. This optimizes the portfolio.
Dont carry an excessive Block 1. [It dampens yields.]
Be careful with Block 3. [Dont overfund.]
You can be very aggressive in Block 4 and Block 5.
[The yields must be high. There are enough of
low yields in Block 1 and Block 2.]
Lets not have too much in Block 5.
[This implies we dont have enough ideas
and capital budget programs for growth.]
Maximize yields within each Block.
Shop around accrediteds; bargain proactively.
Buy the correct instruments and tenors for your needs.
THE CLIMBS
INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
Mission
CLIMBS was in search of a systemic approach to funds management, as mandated by its first 5-Year Strategic Plan (2000-2004). It needed a sound working model anticipating future management decisions and implementation moves.
Early October 2000, the newly recruited Finance and Investment Manager, Raymond Chaves (former PCIB Branch Officer), spent 5 days in Manila with VRV Mgt
to work out the coops investment portfolio.
Considerations
Unsolicited advice from Cagayan de Oro was plentiful. From the Cashier: Please
see to it I dont run out of operating funds. The Actuary Consultant suggested:
Watch claims payments carefully. Reserving against 3 months claims is okay, 6
months plays it safe. The Treasurer declared: Dont overlook whatever the Insurance Commission requires. And the General Manager counselled: Whatever
else you do, make sure you place funds with cooperatives. Without them, we
have no business.
From VRV Mgt, Mon received a mouthful. Arent you more than just a custodian
of liquid funds now available? What do you do when liquid funds grow bigger
than declared needs? When do you go defense, when should you go aggressive? Mon eagerly looked forward to after-work beers and sashimi.
Peculiarities
Coop insurance was a sales push business. It took 6-9 months to bring a nonmember coop into the fold; collective decision-making was slow. Premiums
flowed in monthly with little seasonality; but many coops habitually remitted
premiums 2 months late.
In 1999, the Insurance Commission required CLIMBS to maintain at least P2.2 Million in government securities as funds of last resort, not to be used for day-today operations. Come 2001, CLIMBS expected an increase to P3 Million.
Outlook
The ambitious target was P94 Million in premiums by 2004 (+30% compounded
annual growth). There would be more area offices, more marketing reps, plus
recruitment of independent agents.
Expected were new big accounts, more coops joining, and many small preferred stock buyers.
Exhibit 1
STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS
Insurance Premiums
Less: Direct Considerations
Claims (Indemnities)
Commissions
Policy Reserve Increases
Add: Investment Income
Less: Operating Expenses
Staffing & Benefits
Utilities & Necessities
Managed Discretionaries
Net Surplus
Actual
1999
Projected
2000
Budgeted
2001
P19,681,714
25,307,227
35,870,014
4,273,660
4,706,551
2,516,431
11,496,642
4,990,626
7,015,084
3,186,182
15,191,892
7,592,524
9,858,839
4,703,984
22,155,347
1,743,850
1,644,929
3,139,456
4,300,187
2,297,946
2,051,119
8,649,252
5,114,590
2,576,705
2,948,444
10,639,739
6,235,718
4,154,993
4,676,038
15,066,749
P 1,279,670
1,120,525
1,787,374
Exhibit 2
ASSETS
Current Assets
Cash & Near-Cash
Receivables
Other Currents
Investments
Fixed Assets
All Others
Actual
1999
Projected
2000
Budgeted
2001
10,756,165
2,605,848
1,013,734
7,971,934
11,790,248
125,791
5,840,359
4,383,952
1,145,459
12,268,627
12,127,584
627,863
5,427,303
5,082,527
1,776,881
23,779,441
17,084,133
1,440,057
P 34,263,720
36,393,844
54,590,342
3,877,333
9,165,119
1,041,666
4,463,463
12,397,268
-
4,924,708
12,620,248
-
10,693,396
3,483,302
6,002,904
12,089,530
176,573
7,267,010
11,508,469
151,192
25,385,725
P 34,263,720
36,393,844
54,590,342
RISK MANAGEMENT
SYSTEM
# 1. Investment Policy
# 2. Accreditation System
(approvable by Mancom)
# 4. Monthly Reports
RISK
The essence:
deviation from expectations.
The wider the swing
between realistic best and possible worst
on probable revenues, costs, investment size, returns,
the riskier the investment.
As a general rule,
the higher the returns, the higher the risks
lower-risk projects, lower returns.
Some misconceptions:
no loss, no risk
big investment, big risk
its guaranteed, therefore no risk
if its not dangerous, its not risky.
Imperative:
manage the risk(s):
making sure your expectations do happen
directly controlling the risk factor(s) whenever possible
insuring against deviations: buffers, fallbacks, Plan B
proper planning beforehand
putting controls (systems)
the correct person managing
INVESTMENT POLICY
(an example)
Objective
Target
Systems
Investment
Posture
ACCREDITATION SYSTEM
(an example)
THE IMPORTANCE OF
3-MONTH FORWARD CASH PLANS
done at the branch level,
consolidated by Investment Manager
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Cash Flow
(our suggested format)
Beginning Cash
Cash Inflows
from loan collections
from deposits
from new equity
from borrowings
from dividends elsewhere
Gross Cash Inflows
Cash Outflows
to make new loans
to service withdrawals
to fund operating expenses
to invest in new projects
to repay borrowings
to pay dividends & pat ref
to accommodate whatever
Net Cash Inflows
Ending Cash
KIND OF WORK
THE INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO MANAGER
WILL BE DOING
Strategic
determine sizes of Blocks and designing the Portfolio
creating and updating the Accreditation System
participating actively in the Investment Committee
Operational
deciding on tenors, instruments, institutions
does homework (shopping, updating)
manages day-to-day transactions
(30-50 transactions on P20-P30 Million portfolio):
negotiating rates and placing funds
rolling over, pulling out, redeploying funds
maximizing yields within each block
moving funds from one Block to another
trying out newly-accredited institutions
makes reports
attending financial cocktails and social events
Administrative
maintaining the Placement Book
safekeeping of Investment Certificates
coordinating with various units
ROLES AND
WORKING RELATIONSHIPS
Investment Portfolio Manager (IPM)
works out and recommends the script:
cash organization, decision rules, accreditation system
undertakes day-to-day activities under the script
anything not in the script,
approved first by Investment Committee
Investment Committee
approves the scipt
reviews performance monthly
should not be supervising
transactions within the month
Board of Directors
receives reports
from either IPM or Investment Committee
as long as the script is being done and achieved,
leave the key people to do their job
troubleshooting (when the need arises)
IMPORTANT REMINDERS
on negotiations
on transactions
on evaluating
performance
the President
Coordinating With
Work Purpose
Principal Tasks
Qualifications
Business graduate
banking experience advantageous
This person is trainable.
Skills can be quickly learned,
but it takes 3 years to master.
THE COOP
GOES SHOPPING
Liquidity
Early November 2010, this coop had P41.5 Million in cash and equivalents. It
also carried P7.1 Million of equity investments into coop federations (mostly
pakikisama accommodations by the Board).
Loans receivable were P130 Million, deposit liabilities P137 Million (74% as time
deposits). A P3 Million staff retirement fund was intact. Come April 2011, the
coop intended to pay out P7.5 Million interest on capital and patronage refund.
Portfolio
After consulting with friends in financial circles, the new Investment Committee agreed to organize funds in this manner:
Operating Account
(1- months opexes)
2.1
8.9
3.0
7.1
17.0
Redeployable Funds
(for replenishing, for dividends,
for whatever else)
10.5
Total Portfolio P
48.6
Million
Million
Liquid funds were all in commercial banks as the Cashier saw fit: current accounts, savings deposits, short-term time deposits. Operating this portfolio
would involve a major rejiggling of bank accounts.
Policies
A number of decision rules were at play, though not formalized. The Investment Committee viewed these as preliminary, evolving, amendable as time
goes by.
#1. Beat the 91-day T-Bill rate (everybodys reference point). Overall yield of
a competent investment portfolio should achieve this.
#2. Buy and cash-in, or roll over, the financial instruments. No trading of securities; thats for the experts.
#3. On big placements (P10+ Mn) and longer terms (1 year or more), negotiate
with head offices in Makati. Bank branches have limited discretion.
#4. Placements into cooperatives are encouraged. Because their lending rates
are higher than banks, yield prospects are better.
#5. Dont directly buy into common shares of publicly-listed companies. Leave
that to the financial institutions managing growth funds (if we get into
these). We cannot monitor capital markets everyday; we dont know how.
#6. Every month-end, replenish any depletions of earmarked reserves. Thats
what redeployable funds are for.
#7. Whatever happens, let us not lose our shirts.
It was time to go shopping. The Manager was expected to submit the first-ever
Placement Plan to the Investment Committee.
Exhibit 1
COMMERCIAL BANKS
Savings and Time Deposits
(various banks)
Savings Deposits
0.5% to 1.75%
Time Deposits
(P1-P2 Mn)
30 days
60 days
90 days
1 year
1.875%-2.375%
2.125%-2.625%
2.375%-2.875%
2.625%-3.125%
4.1875%
Exhibit 2
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
(as of 11th November 2010)
Treasury Bills
Gross
Interest Rates
91 days
3.400%
182 days
3.941%
364 days
4.165%
Treasury Bonds
Gross
Interest Rates
5 years
6.375%
7 years
5.375%
Treasury Notes
(FXTN, 5th Nov 2010)
Gross
Interest Rates
1 year
4.0677%
5 years
4.7788%
10 years
5.8953%
20 years
7.8750%
Exhibit 3
COOPERATIVES
Savings
Time
MASS-SPECC
8.5%
(1 year)
NATCCO
6%
(1 year)
CLIMBS
5.5%
7% (30 days)
to 12% (1 year)
4%
8.5%
(1 year)
preferred stock:
6%, open-ended
Exhibit 4
MUTUAL FUNDS
selected institutions,
1-year returns/yields
2007
2008
Latest
2010
24.85%
23.04%
20.58%
10.46%
-33.63%
-38.12%
-37.59%
-14.28%
75.70%
52.05%
40.59%
21.43%
25.93%
21.92%
18.55%
17.21%
-6.27%
-31.50%
-32.52%
-23.75%
68.70%
45.44%
45.94%
31.14%
5.76%
4.35%
4.29%
2.42%
5.26%
2.33%
1.91%
1.53%
10.95%
10.62%
8.02%
9.14%
Stock Funds
(invested in stocks/equities)
First Metro Save & Learn Equity Fund
Philam Strategic Growth Fund, Inc
Sun Life Prosperity Equity Fund, Inc
United Fund, Inc
Balanced Funds
(a mix between stocks/equities
and fixed-income instruments)
First Metro Save & Learn Balanced Fund
GSIS Mutual Fund, Inc
Philam Fund, Inc
Sun Life Prosperity Balanced Fund, Inc
Bond Funds
(all into fixed-income instruments)
Cocolife Fixed Income Fund Inc
First Metro Save & Learn Fixed Income Fund
Philam Bond Fund, Inc
Sun Life Prosperity Bond Fund, Inc
Exhibit 5
UNIT INVESTMENT
TRUST FUNDS (UITFs)
selected institutions,
1-year returns/yields
2007
2008
Latest
2010
BPI
Equity Fund
Balanced Fund
Bond Fund
20.39%
11.42%
6.20%
-42.57%
-26.80%
3.95%
44.91%
36.64%
5.78%
BdO
Equity Fund
Balanced Fund
Bond Fund
14.86%
17.39%
4.85%
-44.66%
-39.34%
3.40%
46.87%
36.95%
8.96%
TRUST BANKING
you declare your parameters;
trust banker customizes your portfolio
needs at least P4 Million to invest
10%-12% yields nowadays
depending on
debt vs equity instruments
MODULE #5
Issues and Concerns
of the Future
Cash
Inflows
Cash
Outflows
prone to:
financial obesity trap
undisciplined discretionary spending
financial prodigality
Transitory
Means
Cash
Inflows
Various
Ends
housing
funeral parlor
memorial park
agri-business projects
gas stations
hospitals/clinics
schools and day-care centers
PLANNING
PROJECT INVESTMENTS
the best directional guide:
a good 5-Year Strategic Plan
(if any)
INVESTMENT
BUDGETING