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Uber Climate Change Brief

UBER CLIMATE CHANGE BRIEF


AGRICULTURE........................................................................................................................................5
A. A2: CO2 Helps Plants......................................................................................................................5
1. While plants may benefit at first, degrading quality of soil will slow the growth in the future...5
2. While plants may grow faster, they will lose quality....................................................................5
B. Diseases/Pests...................................................................................................................................5
1. Pest and plant disease will spread.................................................................................................5
2. Warmer temperatures will spread weed strains North..................................................................6
3. Pests and diseases thrive on warmer temperatures.......................................................................6
4. Poison Ivy LOVES warmer temperatures....................................................................................6
5. Climate change increases the damage done by pests and disease................................................7
6. Climate change stimulates the growth and spread of invasive species........................................7
C. Precipitation......................................................................................................................................7
1. Increased precipitation will delay planting, costing farmers billions...........................................7
2. Increased precipitation will decrease the quality of crops............................................................8
D. Threshold Reached...........................................................................................................................8
1. Agriculture is at maximum temperature tolerance........................................................................8
E. General.............................................................................................................................................8
1. Climate change will adversely affect agriculture and forestry.....................................................8
OCEAN....................................................................................................................................................10
A. Warming.........................................................................................................................................10
1. Increased warming produces 'evil twins'....................................................................................10
2. The ocean has absorbed more than 80% of the Earth's heat, and humans are mostly responsible
........................................................................................................................................................10
B. Acidification....................................................................................................................................11
1. CO2 emissions acidify the ocean, destroying the basis of the oceanic food chain.....................11
2. Acidification kills coral reefs and their ecosystems...................................................................12
C. Coral Reefs.....................................................................................................................................12
1. Climate change kills coral reefs..................................................................................................12
2. Coral reefs have been dying.......................................................................................................12
3. Acidification kills coral reefs and their ecosystems...................................................................13
D. General...........................................................................................................................................13
1. Climate change hurts marine ecosystems through a variety of ways.........................................13
2. Climate change will impact the marine environment.................................................................14
PUBLIC HEALTH...................................................................................................................................15
A. Extinction.......................................................................................................................................15
1. The debate is over – climate change will lead to the extinction of the human race...................15
B. General............................................................................................................................................15
1. Coastal climate variations will impact human health.................................................................15
2. Climate change-related droughts have significant affects on human health..............................16
3. Rising sea levels would directly and indirectly hurt human health............................................16
4. Climate change negatively impacts health (directly and indirectly)..........................................17
5. Climate change will exacerbate global undernourishment.........................................................17
6. Deteriorating development will spawn disease, and exacerbate urban crowding factors..........17
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Uber Climate Change Brief

7. Coastal communities will be heavily affected by climate change..............................................18


ENERGY.................................................................................................................................................19
A. Hydropower...................................................................................................................................19
1. Climate change will negatively affect hydropower generation [Graph].....................................19
2. Hyrdopower is affected by stream changes................................................................................19
3. Other warming factors affect hydropower as well.....................................................................19
B. Fossil Fuels.....................................................................................................................................20
1. Climate change will reduce electrical efficiency [Graph]..........................................................20
2. Increased shortages in water will constrain power production...................................................20
3. Warmer temperatures will reduce power plant efficiency..........................................................21
C. Biofuels...........................................................................................................................................21
1. Other renewable energy sources are also affected by climate change........................................21
D. Demand will Increase.....................................................................................................................21
1. Warming will increase overall energy demand...........................................................................21
2. AC energy consumption will increase........................................................................................22
E. Costs will Increase..........................................................................................................................22
1. Climate change will increase AC costs [Graph].........................................................................22
F. Energy is Vulnerable.......................................................................................................................23
1. Climate change will negatively impact energy systems.............................................................23
2. Rising sea levels will undermine shoreline energy infrastructures............................................23
3. Energy facilities are highly vulnerable to climatic events..........................................................24
4. Climate change impacts the energy grid.....................................................................................24
TRANSPORTATION...............................................................................................................................25
A. Flooding..........................................................................................................................................25
1. Thousands of miles of transit could be flooded..........................................................................25
2. 60,000 miles of highway are under threat from storm surge and sea level rise.........................25
3. Increased precipitation can flood transportation lines................................................................25
B. Droughts.........................................................................................................................................26
1. Drought will have wide-ranging effects on transportation.........................................................26
C. Natural Disasters.............................................................................................................................26
1. More intense hurricanes will directly affect transportation........................................................26
SEA LEVELS..........................................................................................................................................28
A. Erosion............................................................................................................................................28
1. Coastal erosion is and has been happening.................................................................................28
2. Climate change will increase erosion.........................................................................................28
3. Coastal erosion means bigger, and more damaging, waves.......................................................29
B. Water Quality..................................................................................................................................29
1. As sea levels rise, freshwater quality will decline......................................................................29
2. Rising sea levels will impact freshwater supplies, and other infrastructures.............................30
C. General............................................................................................................................................30
1. Rising sea levels will directly impact marine health, and the economies of coastal communities
........................................................................................................................................................30
WILDLIFE/BIODIVERSITY..................................................................................................................31
A. Extinction.......................................................................................................................................31
1. Climate change will destroy biodiversity...................................................................................31
2. Climate change causes more harm to biodiversity than good....................................................31
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3. Climate Change guts Biodiversity..............................................................................................31


4. Climate change can cause extinction of entire species...............................................................32
B. Populations.....................................................................................................................................33
1. Climate Change reduces wildlife populations [Graph]..............................................................33
2. Grassland affects of climate change will lead to decreasing wildlife populations.....................33
3. Warming will both increase and decrease populations of arctic species....................................33
4. Warmer temperatures will reduce cattle production, and kill the animals..................................34
C. Disease............................................................................................................................................34
1. Climate change will increase plant and animal susceptibility to disease...................................34
2. Cattle-killing pathogens will thrive in a warmer environment...................................................35
3. Warmer climates spread pathogens.............................................................................................35
4. Climate change has been spreading disease...............................................................................36
WEATHER EVENTS..............................................................................................................................37
A. Heat Waves.....................................................................................................................................37
1. Increased heat waves from climate change will increase mortality rates...................................37
2. Heat related deaths will outweigh lives saved by milder winters...............................................37
3. Heat waves will kill....................................................................................................................38
4. Climate change increases deadly heat waves.............................................................................38
5. Climate change will increase the frequency, severity, and duration of heat waves....................38
6. Children are especially vulnerable to heat waves.......................................................................39
7. The poor are vulnerable to climate change.................................................................................39
8. The elderly are very vulnerable to heat waves...........................................................................39
9. Diabetes will exacerbate the effects of climate change..............................................................39
B. Flooding..........................................................................................................................................40
1. Climate change increases droughts and floods...........................................................................40
2. Flood related costs will increase.................................................................................................40
3. Flooding spreads disease............................................................................................................41
C. Droughts.........................................................................................................................................41
1. Climate change increases droughts and floods...........................................................................41
2. Drought conditions will increase damage by insects..................................................................41
D. Extreme Weather/Natural Disasters................................................................................................42
1. Climate change increases mortality from extreme weather events............................................42
2. Extreme weather affects directly, and indirectly........................................................................43
3. Warming will increase the destructive power of natural disasters..............................................43
4. Climate change will disrupt society through natural disasters and all their repercussions........43
5. Climate change will disrupt infrastructure and communities.....................................................44
E. Fire..................................................................................................................................................44
1. Climate change will increase fire risks.......................................................................................44
ECONOMY.............................................................................................................................................45
A. General Costs..................................................................................................................................45
1. Climate change directly and indirectly affects economies.........................................................45
2. Climate change will ruin women's livelihoods...........................................................................45
3. Climate change laundry list on the effects on the economy.......................................................46
B. Tangible Costs.................................................................................................................................47
1. Climate change will decrease property values [Graph]..............................................................47
2. Climate Change's total economic cost to Washington
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[Note: Read the bolded parts].........................................................................................................47


3. Life lost due to climate change will cost $6-$88 billion............................................................48
C. Overview.........................................................................................................................................49
1. The costs will outweigh the benefits..........................................................................................49
AIR POLLUTION...................................................................................................................................50
1. Climate change causes ozone depletion.....................................................................................50
2. Climate change exacerbates air pollution...................................................................................50
3. Climate change will lead to lower air quality.............................................................................51
WATER....................................................................................................................................................52
A. Wetlands.........................................................................................................................................52
1. Climate variability will negatively impact wetlands..................................................................52
B. Rainfall...........................................................................................................................................52
1. Warming will increase the amount of precipitation, but lower the overall moisture content.....52
C. Pollution..........................................................................................................................................53
1. Increased water temperatures will lower water quality..............................................................53
2. As rainfall increases (via Climate Change), so will pesticide and pollutant runoff...................53
3. Warmer temperatures increase the number of water- and food-borne diseases..........................54
4. Warming will decrease respiratory and purification water systems...........................................54
5. Water pollution and its impacts are expected to increase...........................................................55
D. General...........................................................................................................................................55
1. Water supply costs will outweigh the benefits............................................................................55
2. Water systems are already under stress; Climate change will exacerbate..................................55
MISCELLANEOUS................................................................................................................................57
1. Warming is happening, and a little increase causes huge impacts..............................................57
2. We have reached the tipping point..............................................................................................57
3. Preventive action will benefit us, whether or not the climate changes.......................................58
AGRICULTURE

A. A2: CO2 Helps Plants

1. While plants may benefit at first, degrading quality of soil will slow the growth in the future
Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office in Nairobi; founding
director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) “How
Will Global Warming Affect My World – A Simplified Guide to
the IPCC”s 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'” November 2003 UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

Meanwhile, manyplants may respond positively to rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide,
growing faster while using less water. Higher temperatures, however, accelerate the evaporation of soil
moisture and the decay of soil organic matter, leading to changes in the mix of nutrients. In many
instances, these effects could slow plant growth while increasing their release of CO2 into the
atmosphere.

2. While plants may grow faster, they will lose quality


Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office in Nairobi; founding
director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) “How
Will Global Warming Affect My World – A Simplified Guide to
the IPCC”s 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'” November
2003 UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

Rising atmospheric CO2 levels will affect plants in other ways as well. For example, they will diminish the
protein content of wheat and rice the quality of many forage species. Wild plants have not yet been
studied in depth; however, it is likely that many of these species would also decline in quality, affecting
the wild animals and other creatures that rely on them for nourishment.

B. Diseases/Pests

1. Pest and plant disease will spread


Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office in Nairobi; founding
director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) “How
Will Global Warming Affect My World – A Simplified Guide to
the IPCC”s 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'” November 2003 UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

Global warming may further exacerbate the negative impacts on plant growth and production by
promoting the spread of pests and diseases. Other expected effects include greater leaching of nutrients
from the soils during intense rains, greater erosion due to stronger winds and more wildfires in drier
regions.
Such dramatic changes are likely to have important implications for human society, which relies on many goods and services provided by natural
ecosystems. The services provided by wildlife include pollination, natural pest control, seed dispersal and recreation, amongst many others. Wetlands
contribute to flood control, nutrient cycling and water detoxification, while forests provide wood-fuel, food, fiber and much more. The value of such
products and services is enormous.

2. Warmer temperatures will spread weed strains North


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

Weeds benefit more than cash crops from higher temperatures and carbon dioxide levels.193 One
concern with continued warming is the northward expansion of invasive weeds. Southern farmers currently lose
more of their crops to weeds than do northern farmers. For example, southern farmers lose 64 percent of the soybean crop to
weeds, while northern farmers lose 22 percent.239 Some extremely aggressive weeds plaguing the
South (such as kudzu) have historically been confined to areas where winter temperatures do not drop
below specific thresholds. As temperatures continue to rise, these weeds will expand their ranges
northward into important agricultural areas.240 Kudzu currently has invaded 2.5 million acres of the
Southeast and is a carrier of the fungal disease soybean rust, which represents a major and expanding
threat to U.S. soybean production.234

Controlling weeds currently costs the United States more than $11 billion a year, with the majority
spent on herbicides;241 so both herbicide use and costs are likely to increase as temperatures and
carbon dioxide levels rise. At the same time, the most widely used herbicide in the United States,
glyphosate (RoundUp®), loses its efficacy on weeds grown at carbon dioxide levels that are projected
to occur in the coming decades (see photos below). Higher concentrations of the chemical and more frequent
spraying thus will be needed, increasing economic and environmental costs associated with chemical
use.233

3. Pests and diseases thrive on warmer temperatures


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

Many insect pests and crop diseases thrive due to warming, increasing losses and necessitating greater pesticide use. Warming aids insects and diseases in
several ways. Rising temperatures allow both insects and pathogens to expand their ranges northward. In
addition, rapidly rising winter temperatures allow more insects to survive over the winter, whereas cold winters
once controlled their populations. Some of these insects, in addition to directly that harm crops. Crop diseases in general are likely to
increase as earlier springs and warmer winters allow proliferation and higher survival rates of disease
pathogens and parasites.193,234 The longer growing season will allow some insects to produce more
generations in a single season, greatly increasing their populations. Finally, plants grown in higher
carbon dioxide conditions tend to be less nutritious, so insects must eat more to meet their protein
requirements, causing greater destruction to crops.193

4. Poison Ivy LOVES warmer temperatures


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

A particularly unpleasant example of how carbon dioxide tends to favor undesirable plants is found in the response of poison ivy to rising carbon dioxide
concentrations. Poison ivy thrives in air with extra carbon dioxide in it, growing bigger and producing a more toxic form of the oil, urushiol, which causes
painful skin reactions in 80 percent of people. Contact with poison ivy is one of the most widely reported ailments at poison centers in the United States,
causing more than 350,000 cases of contact dermatitis each year. The growth stimulation of poison ivy due to increasing carbon dioxide concentration
exceeds that of most other woody species. Given continued increases in carbon dioxide emissions, poison ivy is expected to become more abundant and
more toxic in the future, with implications for forests and human health.234

5. Climate change increases the damage done by pests and disease


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

Insect pests are economically important stresses on forest ecosystems in the United States. Coupled
with pathogens, they cost $1.5 billion in damage per year. Forest insect pests are sensitive to climatic
variations in many stages of their lives. Changes in climate have contributed significantly to several
major insect pest outbreaks in the United States and Canada over the past several decades. The mountain pine
beetle has infested lodgepole pine in British Columbia. Over 33 million acres of forest have been affected, by far the largest such
outbreak in recorded history. Another 1.5 million acres have been infested by pine beetle in Colorado. Spruce
beetle has affected more than 2.5 million acres in Alaska (see Alaska region) and western Canada. The
combination of drought and high temperatures also has led to serious insect infestations and death of
piñon pine in the Southwest, and to various insect pest attacks throughout the forests of the eastern
United States.243

6. Climate change stimulates the growth and spread of invasive species


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

The increasing carbon dioxide concentration stimulates the growth of most plant species, and some invasive plants respond with greater growth rates than
native plants. Beyond this, invasive plants appear to better tolerate a wider range of environmental conditions and may be more successful in a warming
world because they can migrate and establish themselves in new sites more rapidly than native plants.70 They are also not usually dependent on external
pollinators or seed dispersers to reproduce. For all of these reasons, invasive plant species present a growing problem that is extremely difficult to control
once unleashed.70

C. Precipitation

1. Increased precipitation will delay planting, costing farmers billions


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector
One of the most pronounced effects of climate change is the increase in heavy downpours. Precipitation
has become less frequent but more intense, and this pattern is projected to continue across the United
States.112 One consequence of excessive rainfall is delayed spring planting, which jeopardizes profits
for farmers paid a premium for early season production of high-value crops such as melon, sweet corn,
and tomatoes. Field flooding during the growing season causes crop losses due to low oxygen levels in
the soil, increased susceptibility to root diseases, and increased soil compaction due to the use of heavy
farm equipment on wet soils. In spring 2008, heavy rains caused the Mississippi River to rise to about 7
feet above flood stage, inundating hundreds of thousands of acres of cropland. The flood hit just as
farmers were preparing to harvest wheat and plant corn, soybeans, and cotton. Preliminary estimates of
agricultural losses are around $8 billion.213 Some farmers were put out of business and others will be
recovering for years to come. The flooding caused severe erosion in some areas and also caused an
increase in runoff and leaching of agricultural chemicals into surface water and groundwater.233

2. Increased precipitation will decrease the quality of crops


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

wet conditions at harvest time result in reduced quality of many crops.


Another impact of heavy downpours is that
Storms with heavy rainfall often are accompanied by wind gusts, and both strong winds and rain can
flatten crops, causing significant damage. Vegetable and fruit crops are sensitive to even short-term,
minor stresses, and as such are particularly vulnerable to weather extremes.193 More rainfall
concentrated into heavy downpours also increases the likelihood of water deficiencies at other times
because of reductions in rainfall frequency.

D. Threshold Reached

1. Agriculture is at maximum temperature tolerance


Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office in Nairobi; founding
director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) “How
Will Global Warming Affect My World – A Simplified Guide to
the IPCC”s 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'” November
2003 UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf
In the tropics, many crops are already near their maximum temperature tolerance, and farmers are often unable to irrigate because water supplies are
inadequate. Where dryland agriculture relies solely on rain – as in sub-Saharan Africa – yields would decrease generally with even minimal increases in
temperature. More extremes and a shift in precipitation zones could worsen food security in Africa.

E. General

1. Climate change will adversely affect agriculture and forestry


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

Temperature increases can shorten growing cycles, e.g., those of cotton and mango on the north coast
of Peru during the El Niño (see Chapter 13, Section 13.2.2). More frequent extreme climate events during specific
crop development stages, together with higher rainfall intensity and longer dry spells, may impact
negatively on crop yields (Olesen et al., 2006). Cyclone landfalls causing floods and destruction have negative
impacts on coastal areas, e.g., on coconuts in India (see Chapter 5, Section 5.4.4), or on sugar cane and bananas
in Queensland (Cyclone Larry in March 2006). Rising sea level has negative impacts on coastal agriculture. Detailed
modelling of inundation implies significant changes to the number of rice crops possible in the Mekong delta under 20-40 cm of relative sea-level rise
(Wassmann et al., 2004). Rising sea level potentially threatens inundation and soil salinisation of palm oil and coconuts in Benin and Côte d’Ivoire (see
Chapter 9, Section 9.4.6) and mangoes, cashew nuts and coconuts in Kenya (Republic of Kenya, 2002).

forests are easily affected by climatic perturbations, and severe storms can
Coastal forestry is little studied, but
cause extensive losses, e.g., Hurricane Katrina. Plantation forests (mainly P. radiata) on the east coast of
North Island, New Zealand, are likely to experience growth reductions under projected rainfall
decreases (Ministry for the Environment, 2001). Increasing salinity and greater frequency of flooding due to sea-
level rise reduces the ability of trees to generate, including mangroves which will also experience other
changes (Section 6.4.1.4) (IUCN, 2003).
OCEAN

A. Warming

1. Increased warming produces 'evil twins'


Edward L Miles(PhD, International Relations/Comparative Politics, Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1965;
Instructor, International Relations, Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1965-66; Assistant Professor, International
Studies,Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1966-70; Associate Professor, International Studies, Graduate School of
International Studies, University of Denver, 1970-74; Professor of Marine Studies and Public Affairs, Institute for Marine Studies, University of
Washington; Director, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, 1982-93; Virginia and Prentice Bloedel Professor, Marine Studies & Public
Affairs, University of Washington; Senior Fellow, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Co-Director, Center for Science in The Earth
System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington; Member, Advisory Panel, National Sea Grant Program,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US Department of Commerce, 1970-72; International Affairs Fellowship, Council on Foreign
Relations, 1972-73; Chairman, Ocean Policy Committee, National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council, 1974-79; Principal Investigator,
North Pacific Project, Institute for Marine Studies, University of Washington, supported by the Rockefeller Foundation, 1976-80; Principal Investigator,
North Pacific Project, Institute for Marine Studies, University of Washington, supported by the National Science Foundation, 1980-83; Chairman,
Advisory Committee for International Programs, National Science Foundation, 1990-92; Principal Investigator Project on the Impacts of Climate
Variability, Climate Change, and Response Strategies in the Pacific Northwest, supported by the Office of Global Programs, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration; Member, Climate and Global Change Advisory Panel, Office of Global Programs, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, 1996-2003; Member, Advisory Committee on Applications, International Research Institute for Climate Predictions, Lamont-Doherty
Earth Observatory, Columbia University, 1996-2004; Member, US National Academy of Sciences; Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of
Science; Member, Board of Directors, Union of Concerned Scientists; Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2009) “On the Increasing
Vulnerability of the World Ocean to Multiple Stresses” August 2009 ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND
RESOURCES (Annual Reviews)

Increasing anthropogenic emissions to, and concentration of CO2 in, the atmosphere spawns “evil
twins”: (a) the warming of the terrestrial surface and the ocean surface and depths and (b) increasing
acidification of the ocean as a result of the dissolution of CO2 in seawater, which creates carbonic acid
in its initial reaction. These two stressors combine in their impacts on marine ecosystems. This section
focuses first on changing thermal structure and second on increasing acidification before considering
the combined effects of the two stressors.

2. The ocean has absorbed more than 80% of the Earth's heat, and humans are mostly
responsible
Edward L Miles(PhD, International Relations/Comparative Politics, Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1965;
Instructor, International Relations, Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1965-66; Assistant Professor, International
Studies,Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1966-70; Associate Professor, International Studies, Graduate School of
International Studies, University of Denver, 1970-74; Professor of Marine Studies and Public Affairs, Institute for Marine Studies, University of
Washington; Director, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, 1982-93; Virginia and Prentice Bloedel Professor, Marine Studies & Public
Affairs, University of Washington; Senior Fellow, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Co-Director, Center for Science in The Earth
System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington; Member, Advisory Panel, National Sea Grant Program,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US Department of Commerce, 1970-72; International Affairs Fellowship, Council on Foreign
Relations, 1972-73; Chairman, Ocean Policy Committee, National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council, 1974-79; Principal Investigator,
North Pacific Project, Institute for Marine Studies, University of Washington, supported by the Rockefeller Foundation, 1976-80; Principal Investigator,
North Pacific Project, Institute for Marine Studies, University of Washington, supported by the National Science Foundation, 1980-83; Chairman,
Advisory Committee for International Programs, National Science Foundation, 1990-92; Principal Investigator Project on the Impacts of Climate
Variability, Climate Change, and Response Strategies in the Pacific Northwest, supported by the Office of Global Programs, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration; Member, Climate and Global Change Advisory Panel, Office of Global Programs, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, 1996-2003; Member, Advisory Committee on Applications, International Research Institute for Climate Predictions, Lamont-Doherty
Earth Observatory, Columbia University, 1996-2004; Member, US National Academy of Sciences; Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of
Science; Member, Board of Directors, Union of Concerned Scientists; Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2009) “On the Increasing
Vulnerability of the World Ocean to Multiple Stresses” August 2009 ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND
RESOURCES (Annual Reviews)

The work by Barnett et al. (4, 6) builds on the work of Levitus et al. (3) in seeking to detect an
anthropogenic signal in this increase of heat, particularly in the upper 3000 m of the world ocean. Their
five model realizations closely correspond to the observed heat content change and reproduce the
interbasin variability. The authors, furthermore, demonstrate conclusively that the changes in deep-
ocean heat content are driven solely by deep convective changes in the Atlantic, both North and South.
The data provided by Levitus et al. (5) have allowed Barnett et al. (6) to calculate that the oceans have
sequestered 84% of Earth's heat generated since the 1950s and to conclude that human influences are
largely responsible.

B. Acidification

1. CO2 emissions acidify the ocean, destroying the basis of the oceanic food chain
Edward L Miles(PhD, International Relations/Comparative Politics, Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1965;
Instructor, International Relations, Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1965-66; Assistant Professor, International
Studies,Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1966-70; Associate Professor, International Studies, Graduate School of
International Studies, University of Denver, 1970-74; Professor of Marine Studies and Public Affairs, Institute for Marine Studies, University of
Washington; Director, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, 1982-93; Virginia and Prentice Bloedel Professor, Marine Studies & Public
Affairs, University of Washington; Senior Fellow, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Co-Director, Center for Science in The Earth
System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington; Member, Advisory Panel, National Sea Grant Program,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US Department of Commerce, 1970-72; International Affairs Fellowship, Council on Foreign
Relations, 1972-73; Chairman, Ocean Policy Committee, National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council, 1974-79; Principal Investigator,
North Pacific Project, Institute for Marine Studies, University of Washington, supported by the Rockefeller Foundation, 1976-80; Principal Investigator,
North Pacific Project, Institute for Marine Studies, University of Washington, supported by the National Science Foundation, 1980-83; Chairman,
Advisory Committee for International Programs, National Science Foundation, 1990-92; Principal Investigator Project on the Impacts of Climate
Variability, Climate Change, and Response Strategies in the Pacific Northwest, supported by the Office of Global Programs, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration; Member, Climate and Global Change Advisory Panel, Office of Global Programs, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, 1996-2003; Member, Advisory Committee on Applications, International Research Institute for Climate Predictions, Lamont-Doherty
Earth Observatory, Columbia University, 1996-2004; Member, US National Academy of Sciences; Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of
Science; Member, Board of Directors, Union of Concerned Scientists; Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2009) “On the Increasing
Vulnerability of the World Ocean to Multiple Stresses” August 2009 ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND
RESOURCES (Annual Reviews)

How is acidification of the world ocean accomplished? In a healthy ocean, the surface waters are alkaline, as measured by
pH values in a range of 8.1–8.3 on a log scale. These pH levels reflect a surface ocean, which is saturated by
carbonate and bicarbonate ions. The latter allow living organisms, requiring CaCO3 to manufacture
their shells and skeletons, to exist and to thrive. For example, aragonite is a biogenic bicarbonate ion derived from corals and
pterapods, and calcite is a biogenic carbonate ion derived from coccolithofores and foraminifera. Pterapods are zooplankton, which are very
important to the early life stages of certain fish species, whereas coccolithofores and foraminfera are phytoplankton, which are
food sources for a variety of zooplankton. Because these plankton are important food sources at the bottom of the
oceanic food chain, any stresses that produce declines in their populations will have far-reaching effects
at higher levels of the food chain. Both biogenic ions neutralize anthropogenic CO2 and thereby contribute to total alkalinity, but only up
to certain saturation levels of CO2. By contrast, supersaturation of anthropogenic CO2 at the ocean surface expands the zone
of biogenic undersaturation of CaCO3 (from 200–400 m especially), which reduces alkalinity. This shift in ocean chemistry is
lethal to all calcareous life forms. Surface saturation of anthropogenic CO2 also affects the pCO2 in the surface ocean by adjusting the
ocean/atm CO2 flux such that increasing pCO2 increases the uptake of CO2 by the surface ocean, thereby decreasing pH. In the world ocean,
the polar oceans are most vulnerable because the solubility of carbon increases as temperature decreases. Because the
Antarctic is colder than the Arctic Ocean, it is the most vulnerable to increasing acidification. The
changes that are now observed are very large, and the rate of CO2 uptake is faster than has been
experienced for at least the last 650,000 years. The significance of these changes has been graphically stated by
Brewer in his International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) lecture (46):
My message is simple; there are massive, and until very recently unrecognized, changes of geologic
scale taking place in the ocean as we have entered the anthropocene era, and these may very well have
profound effects on ocean ecosystems world wide…ocean chemistry is being altered on a scale not seen for
millions of years, and there are very basic questions on the impact on ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles
to which we do not yet have answers.

2. Acidification kills coral reefs and their ecosystems


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

But risingtemperature is not the only stress coral reefs face. As the carbon dioxide concentration in the
air increases, more carbon dioxide is absorbed into the world’s oceans, leading to their acidification.
This makes less calcium carbonate available for corals and other sea life to build their skeletons and
shells.258 If carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise and the resulting acidification proceeds,
eventually, corals and other ocean life that rely on calcium carbonate will not be able to build these
skeletons and shells at all. The implications of such extreme changes in ocean ecosystems are not clear, but there is now evidence that in some
ocean areas, such as along the Northwest coast, acidification is already occurring70,259 (see Coasts region for more discussion of ocean acidification).

C. Coral Reefs

1. Climate change kills coral reefs


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

Coral reefs are very diverse ecosystems that support many other species by providing food and habitat.
In addition to their ecological value, coral reefs provide billions of dollars in services including
tourism, fish breeding habitat, and protection of coastlines. Corals face a host of challenges associated with human activities
such as poorly regulated tourism, destructive fishing, and pollution, in addition to climate change-related stresses.70

Corals are marine animals that host symbiotic algae which help nourish the animals and give the corals their color. When
corals are stressed
by increases in water temperatures or ultraviolet light, they lose their algae and turn white, a process
called coral bleaching. If the stress persists, the corals die. Intensities and frequencies of bleaching
events, clearly driven by warming in surface water, have increased substantially over the past 30 years,
leading to the death or severe damage of about one third of the world’s corals.70

2. Coral reefs have been dying


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector
In 2005, the Caribbean basin
The United States has extensive coral reef ecosystems in the Caribbean, Atlantic, and Pacific oceans.
experienced unprecedented water temperatures that resulted in dramatic coral bleaching with some sites
in the U.S. Virgin Islands seeing 90 percent of the coral bleached. Some corals began to recover when
water temperatures decreased, but later that year disease appeared, striking the previously bleached and
weakened coral. To date, 50 percent of the corals in Virgin Islands National Park have died from the
bleaching and disease events. In the Florida Keys, summer bleaching in 2005 was also followed by
disease in September.70

3. Acidification kills coral reefs and their ecosystems


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

But risingtemperature is not the only stress coral reefs face. As the carbon dioxide concentration in the
air increases, more carbon dioxide is absorbed into the world’s oceans, leading to their acidification.
This makes less calcium carbonate available for corals and other sea life to build their skeletons and
shells.258 If carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise and the resulting acidification proceeds,
eventually, corals and other ocean life that rely on calcium carbonate will not be able to build these
skeletons and shells at all. The implications of such extreme changes in ocean ecosystems are not clear, but there is now evidence that in some
ocean areas, such as along the Northwest coast, acidification is already occurring70,259 (see Coasts region for more discussion of ocean acidification).

D. General

1. Climate change hurts marine ecosystems through a variety of ways


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

Climate change can impact marine ecosystems through ocean warming (Wang et al., 2004b), by increasing
thermal stratification and reducing upwelling (Cox et al., 2000; Sarmiento et al., 2004a), sea level rise (IPCC, 2001), and
through increases in wave height and frequency (Monahan et al., 2000; Wang et al., 2004b), loss of sea ice (Sarmiento et al.,
2004b; Meehl et al., 2007; Christensen et al., 2007), increased risk of diseases in marine biota (Harvell et al., 2002) and
decreases in the pH and carbonate ion concentration of the surface oceans (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003; Feely et al.,
2004; Sabine et al., 2004; Raven et al., 2005).
2. Climate change will impact the marine environment
Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office in Nairobi; founding
director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) “How
Will Global Warming Affect My World – A Simplified Guide to
the IPCC”s 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'” November 2003 UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

Climate change may affect the marine environment in ways that would worsen the risk of biotoxin
poisoning from consuming fish and shellfish. Biotoxins associated with warmer waters, such as
ciguatera in the tropics, could extend their range to higher latitudes. Warmer seas will also encourage
more toxic algal blooms, which can be linked to human poisoning. Declining water quantity and
quality would cause more cases of diarrhea.
PUBLIC HEALTH

A. Extinction

1. The debate is over – climate change will lead to the extinction of the human race
Bill Henderson(Science and Innovation Study Productivity Commission; Environmental Scientist &
Activist) “Runaway Global Warming – Denial” August 2006 COUNTER CURRENTS
http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-henderson190806.htm

The scientific debate about human induced global warming is over but policy makers - let alone the happily
shopping general public - still seem to not understand the scope of the impending tragedy. Global warming isn't
just warmer temperatures, heat waves, melting ice and threatened polar bears. Scientific understanding
increasingly points to runaway global warming leading to human extinction. If impossibly Draconian
security measures are not immediately put in place to keep further emissions of greenhouse gases out of
the atmosphere we are looking at the death of billions, the end of civilization as we know it and in all
probability the end of man's several million year old existence, along with the extinction of most flora and
fauna beloved to man in the world we share.

B. General

1. Coastal climate variations will impact human health


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

One-quarter of the world’s population resides within 100 km distance and 100 m elevation of the
coastline, with increases likely over the coming decades (Small and Nicholls, 2003). Climate change could affect
coastal areas through an accelerated rise in sea level; a further rise in sea-surface temperatures; an
intensification of tropical cyclones; changes in wave and storm surge characteristics; altered
precipitation/runoff; and ocean acidification (see Chapter 6). These changes could affect human health
through coastal flooding and damaged coastal infrastructure; saltwater intrusion into coastal freshwater
resources; damage to coastal ecosystems, coral reefs and coastal fisheries; population displacement;
changes in the range and prevalence of climate-sensitive health outcomes; amongst others. Although some
Small Island States and other low-lying areas are at particular risk, there are few projections of the health impact of climate variability and change.
Climate-sensitive health outcomes of concern in Small Island States include malaria, dengue,
diarrhoeal diseases, heat stress, skin diseases, acute respiratory infections and asthma (WHO, 2004a).
2. Climate change-related droughts have significant affects on human health
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.) “Third
Assessment Report” 2001 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/

The health impacts of drought on populations occur primarily via impacts on food production. Famine
often occurs when a preexisting situation of malnutrition worsens. The health consequences of drought
include diseases resulting from malnutrition (McMichael et al., 1996b). In times of shortage, water is used for
cooking rather than hygiene. In particular, this increases the risk of diarrheal diseases (as a result of fecal
contamination) and water-washed diseases (e.g., trachoma, scabies). Outbreaks of malaria can occur during droughts
as a result of changes in vector breeding sites (Bouma and van der Kaay, 1996). Malnutrition also increases
susceptibility to infection.

In addition to adverse environmental conditions, political, environmental, or economic crises can


trigger a collapse in food marketing systems. These factors may have a cumulative or synergistic effect.
For example, a breakdown in the reserve food supply system resulting from the sale of grain or livestock
reserves might be exacerbated by conflict and breakdown in law and order. The major food emergency
in Sudan during 1998 illustrates the interrelationship between climatic triggers of famine and conflict.
Land mines made portions of major roads in southern Sudan impassable and contributed to poor access
for relief supplies. By July 1998, the World Food Programme's air cargo capacity had increased to more than 10,000 t to overcome the transport
difficulties. These air cargoes were supplemented by barge convoys and road repair projects (WFP, 1999). Vulnerability to drought and food shortages can
be greatly reduced through the use of seasonal forecasts as part of an early warning system (see Section 9.11.1).

3. Rising sea levels would directly and indirectly hurt human health
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.) “Third
Assessment Report” 2001 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/

The potential impacts of sea-level rise on the health and well-being of coastal populations are an
important consideration (Klein and Nicholls, 1999). Estimates of the potential number of people at risk from
sea-level rise are addressed elsewhere in TAR WGI and this volume. For example, a 0.5-m rise in sea
level along the Nile delta would flood 32% of urban areas, resulting in a significant loss of shelter and
forced migration (El-Raey et al., 1999; see Chapter 6). In some locations, sea-level rise could disrupt stormwater
drainage and sewage disposal and result in salinization of freshwater supplies. It can affect health
indirectly by reducing food production—for example, by reducing rice production in low-lying coastal
rice paddies. Sea-level rise also could affect the distribution of vector-borne diseases—for example,
some of the coastal wetlands of the United States may be flooded, thereby destroying the habitat of the
EEE virus. Populations with limited economic, technical, and social resources have increased
vulnerability to various infectious, psychological, and other adverse health consequences.

4. Climate change negatively impacts health (directly and indirectly)


Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office in Nairobi; founding
director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) “How
Will Global Warming Affect My World – A Simplified Guide to
the IPCC”s 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'” November 2003 UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

New patterns of heat waves and cold snaps, floods and droughts, and local pollution and allergens
would affect health directly. Indirect effects will result from changes to ecological and social systems.
Such impacts will include changes in infectious diseases, freshwater supplies, local food production,
population movements and economic activities.

5. Climate change will exacerbate global undernourishment


Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office in Nairobi; founding
director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) “How
Will Global Warming Affect My World – A Simplified Guide to
the IPCC”s 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'” November 2003 UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

With some 790 million people currently undernourished, changes in food supply resulting from climate
change could affect the nutrition and health of the poor in some regions. Isolated areas with poor access
to markets will be particularly vulnerable to local problems with the food supply.

Undernourishment is a fundamental cause of stunted physical and intellectual development in children,


low productivity in adults and increased susceptibility to infectious diseases. Climate change would
exacerbate these conditions in the developing world, particularly in the tropics.

6. Deteriorating development will spawn disease, and exacerbate urban crowding factors
Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office in Nairobi; founding
director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) “How
Will Global Warming Affect My World – A Simplified Guide to
the IPCC”s 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'” November
2003 UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

Building, roads, railways, ports and industrial development – particularly when based on coasts,
riverbanks, hills, or permafrost – may suffer more damage. They will more often require repairs,
reconstruction or relocation. The social fabric and infrastructure of many cities may face greater stress
as people migrate away from vulnerable areas towards population centers. As shantytowns further
encircle urban centers there will be higher risks that disease will spread. Urban pollution and fire risks
may worsen under global warming conditions.

7. Coastal communities will be heavily affected by climate change


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html
The potential impacts of climate change on populations in coastal regions will be determined by the future health status of the population, its capacity to
Coastal communities that rely on marine
cope with climate hazards and control infectious diseases, and other public health measures.
resources for food, in terms of both supply and maintaining food quality (food safety), are vulnerable to
climate-related impacts, in both health and economic terms. Marine ecological processes linked to
temperature changes also play a role in determining human health risks, such as from cholera, and other
enteric pathogens (Vibrio parahaemolyticus), HABs, and shellfish and reef fish poisoning (Pascual et al., 2002; Hunter,
2003; Lipp et al., 2004; Peperzak, 2005; McLaughlin et al., 2006).
ENERGY

A. Hydropower

1. Climate change will negatively affect hydropower generation [Graph]


The Program of Climate Economics of the Climate Leadership Initiative(The work of the CLI Program on Climate
Economics is supported by a steering committee of academic and private economists from across the West and nation. Steering committee members
provide overall guidance for the program, may be contracted to produce or contribute to economic assessments, and, serve as peer reviewers.) “An
Overview of Potentional Economic Costs to Washington of a Business-As-Usual Approach to Climate Change” February 17, 2009 CLIMATE
LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/docs/021609_ClimateEconomicsImpactsReport.pdf

Climate models indicate that changes in the Pacific Northwest’s climate likely will cause runoff to
increase in winter and decrease in summer, reducing value of hydropower produced by the region’s
hydroelectric facilities. This reduction in value would ensue due to a mismatch between energy
demand, which will increase in summer, and hydropower supplies, which would be lower at the same
time.

Later on in the article...

Potential Value of Reduction in Hydropower Generation


2020 2040 2080
$150 million $473 million $1.12 billion

2. Hyrdopower is affected by stream changes


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
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Hydroelectric generation is very sensitive to changes in precipitation and river discharge. For example,
every 1 percent decrease in precipitation results in a 2 to 3 percent drop in streamflow;219 every 1
percent decrease in streamflow in the Colorado River Basin results in a 3 percent drop in power
generation.191 Such magnifying sensitivities occur because water flows through multiple power plants
in a river basin.191

Climate impacts on hydropower occur when either the total amount or the timing of runoff is altered,
such as when natural water storage in snowpack and glaciers is reduced under hotter conditions.
Glaciers, snowpack, and their associated runoff are already declining in the West, and larger declines
are projected.164

3. Other warming factors affect hydropower as well


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
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Hydropower operations are also affected by changes to air temperatures, humidity, or wind patterns due
to climate change.191 These variables cause changes in water quantity and quality, including water
temperature. Warmer air and water generally increase the evaporation of water from the surface of
reservoirs, reducing the amount of water available for power production and other uses. Huge
reservoirs with large surface areas, located in arid, sunny parts of the country, such as Lake Mead (located on
Arizona- Nevada border on the Colorado River), are particularly susceptible to increased evaporation due to warming,
meaning less water will be available for all uses, including hydropower. 191 And, where hydropower dams flow
into waterways that support trout, salmon or other coldwater fisheries, warming of reservoir releases
might have detrimental consequences that require changes in operations that reduce power
production.191 Such impacts will increasingly translate into competition for water resources.

B. Fossil Fuels

1. Climate change will reduce electrical efficiency [Graph]


The Program of Climate Economics of the Climate Leadership Initiative(The work of the CLI Program on Climate
Economics is supported by a steering committee of academic and private economists from across the West and nation. Steering committee members
provide overall guidance for the program, may be contracted to produce or contribute to economic assessments, and, serve as peer reviewers.) “An
Overview of Potentional Economic Costs to Washington of a Business-As-Usual Approach to Climate Change” February 17, 2009 CLIMATE
LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/docs/021609_ClimateEconomicsImpactsReport.pdf

Higher temperatures during climate-related heat waves will increase the amount of energy lost during
electricity-transmission lines. During heat waves, the resistance of overloaded transmission lines
increases, causing the grid to convert more electricity into heat, which wastes energy.

Later on in the article...

Potential Value of Energy Lost in Transmission During Heat Waves


2020 2040 2080
$44 million $85 million $241 million

2. Increased shortages in water will constrain power production


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
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reductions in water supply due to decreases in precipitation and/or water from melting
In some regions,
snowpack are likely to be significant, increasing the competition for water among various sectors
including energy production (see Water Resources sector).191,208

The production of energy from fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) is inextricably linked to the availability of
adequate and sustainable supplies of water.191,208 While providing the United States with the majority
of its annual energy needs, fossil fuels also place a high demand on the nation’s water resources in
terms of both quantity and quality impacts.191,208 Generation of electricity in thermal power plants
is water intensive. Power plants rank only slightly behind irrigation in terms of
(coal, nuclear, gas, or oil)
freshwater withdrawals in the United States.191

There is a high likelihood that water shortages will limit power plant electricity production in many
regions. Future water constraints on electricity production in thermal power plants are projected for
Arizona, Utah, Texas, Louisiana, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, California, Oregon, and Washington state by 2025.191 Additional parts of the United
States could face similar constraints as a result of drought, growing populations, and increasing demand
for water for various uses, at least seasonally. 209 Situations where the development of new power
plants is being slowed down or halted due to inadequate cooling water are becoming more frequent
throughout the nation.191

3. Warmer temperatures will reduce power plant efficiency


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
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The efficiency of thermal power plants, fossil or nuclear, is sensitive to ambient air and water
temperatures; higher temperatures reduce power outputs by affecting the efficiency of cooling.191 Although
this effect is not large in percentage terms, even a relatively small change could have significant implications for total
national electric power supply.191 For example, an average reduction of 1 percent in electricity generated by
thermal power plants nationwide would mean a loss of 25 billion kilowatt-hours per year,211 about the
amount of electricity consumed by 2 million Americans, a loss that would need to be supplied in some
other way or offset through measures that improve energy efficiency.

C. Biofuels

1. Other renewable energy sources are also affected by climate change


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
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Climate change is also likely to affect other renewable energy sources. For example, changing cloud cover
affects solar energy resources, changes in winds affect wind power, and temperature and water
availability affect biomass production (particularly related to water requirements for biofuels).191 The limited research to date on these
important issues does not support firm conclusions about where such impacts would occur and how significant they would be.205 This is an area that calls
for much more study (see An Agenda for Climate Impacts Science section, Recommendation 2).

D. Demand will Increase

1. Warming will increase overall energy demand


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
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Research on the effects of climate change on energy production and use has largely been limited to impacts on energy use in buildings. These studies have
considered effects of global warming on energy requirements for heating and cooling in buildings in the United States.205 They find that the demand
for cooling energy increases from 5 to 20 percent per 1.8°F of warming, and the demand for heating
energy drops by 3 to 15 percent per 1.8°F of warming.205 These ranges reflect different assumptions about factors such as the
rate of market penetration of improved building equipment technologies.205

temperature increases due to global warming are very likely to increase peak demand for
Studies project that
electricity in most regions of the country.205 An increase in peak demand can lead to a
disproportionate increase in energy infrastructure investment.205

Since nearly all of the cooling of buildings is provided by electricity use, whereas the vast majority of
the heating of buildings is provided by natural gas and fuel oil,201,206 the projected changes imply
increased demands for electricity. This is especially the case where climate change would result in
significant increases in the heat index in summer, and where relatively little space cooling has been
needed in the past, but demands are likely to increase in the future.205

The increase in electricity demand is likely to be accelerated by population movements to the South
and Southwest, which are regions of especially high per capita electricity use, due to demands for
cooling in commercial buildings and households.205 Because nearly half of the nation’s electricity is
currently generated from coal, these factors have the potential to increase total national carbon dioxide
emissions in the absence of improved energy efficiency, development of non-carbon energy sources,
and/or carbon capture and storage.205

2. AC energy consumption will increase


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
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Other effects of climate change on energy consumption are less clear, because little research has been done.205 For instance, in
addition to
cooling, air conditioners also remove moisture from the air; thus the increase in humidity projected to
accompany global warming is likely to increase electricity consumption by air conditioners even
further.205 As other examples, warming would increase the use of air conditioners in highway vehicles,
and water scarcity in some regions has the potential to increase energy demands for water pumping. It is
important to improve the information available about these other kinds of effects.

E. Costs will Increase

1. Climate change will increase AC costs [Graph]


The Program of Climate Economics of the Climate Leadership Initiative(The work of the CLI Program on Climate
Economics is supported by a steering committee of academic and private economists from across the West and nation. Steering committee members
provide overall guidance for the program, may be contracted to produce or contribute to economic assessments, and, serve as peer reviewers.) “An
Overview of Potentional Economic Costs to Washington of a Business-As-Usual Approach to Climate Change” February 17, 2009 CLIMATE
LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/docs/021609_ClimateEconomicsImpactsReport.pdf

Higher temperatures during summer months will induce residential consumers to spend more money on
air conditioning, decreasing the amount they can spend on other things.

Later on in the article...

Potential Value of Increased Energy Costs for Air Conditioning


2020 2040 2080
$28 million $65 million $164 million

F. Energy is Vulnerable

1. Climate change will negatively impact energy systems


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
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Some of the effects of climate


Many of the effects of climate change on energy production and use in the United States are not well studied.
change, however, have clear implications for energy production and use. For instance, rising temperatures are
expected to increase energy requirements for cooling and reduce energy requirements for
heating.164,201 Changes in precipitation have the potential to affect prospects for hydropower, positively
or negatively.201 Increases in hurricane intensity are likely to cause further disruptions to oil and gas
operations in the Gulf, like those experienced in 2005 with Hurricane Katrina and in 2008 with
Hurricane Ike.201 Concerns about climate change impacts will almost certainly alter perceptions and
valuations of energy technology alternatives. These effects are very likely to be relevant for energy
policies, decisions, and institutions in the United States, affecting courses of action and appropriate
strategies for risk management.201

2. Rising sea levels will undermine shoreline energy infrastructures


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
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A significant fraction of America’s energy infrastructure is located near the coasts, from power plants,
to oil refineries, to facilities that receive oil and gas deliveries.191 Rising sea levels are likely to lead to
direct losses, such as equipment damage from flooding or erosion, and indirect effects, such as the
costs of raising vulnerable assets to higher levels or building new facilities farther inland, increasing
transportation costs.191 The U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast have been identified as particularly
vulnerable to sea-level rise because the land is relatively flat and also sinking in many places.191
3. Energy facilities are highly vulnerable to climatic events
United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
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Observed and projected increases in a variety of extreme events will have significant impacts on the energy sector. As witnessed in 2005, hurricanes
can have a debilitating impact on energy infrastructure. Direct losses to the energy industry in 2005 are
estimated at $15 billion,191 with millions more in restoration and recovery costs. As one example, the
Yscloskey Gas Processing Plant (located on the Louisiana coast) was forced to close for six months following
Hurricane Katrina, resulting in lost revenues to the plant’s owners and employees, and higher prices to
consumers, as gas had to be procured from other sources.191

The impacts of an increase in severe weather are not limited to hurricane-prone areas. For example, rail
transportation lines, which carry approximately two-thirds of the coal to the nation’s power plants,212
often follow riverbeds, especially in the Appalachian region.191 More intense rainstorms, which have been
observed and projected,68,112 can lead to rivers flooding, which can “wash out” or degrade nearby railbeds and
roadbeds.191 This is also a problem in the Midwest, which experienced major flooding of the
Mississippi River in 1993 and 2008.213

4. Climate change impacts the energy grid


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
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The electricity grid is also vulnerable to climate change effects, from temperature changes to severe
weather events.191 The most familiar example is effects of severe weather events on power lines, such as
from ice storms, thunderstorms, and hurricanes. In the summer heat wave of 2006, for example, electric power
transformers failed in several areas (including St. Louis, Missouri, and Queens, New York) due to high temperatures,
causing interruptions of electric power supply. It is not yet possible to project effects of climate change on the grid, because so many
of the effects would be more localized than current climate change models can depict; but, weather-related grid disturbances are
recognized as a challenge for strategic planning and risk management.
TRANSPORTATION

A. Flooding

1. Thousands of miles of transit could be flooded


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
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Transportation infrastructure in U.S. coastal areas is increasingly vulnerable to sea-level rise. Given the
high population density near the coasts, the potential exposure of transportation infrastructure to
flooding is immense. Population swells in these areas during the summer months because beaches are very important tourist destinations.222

In the Gulf Coast area alone, an estimated 2,400 miles of major roadway and 246 miles of freight rail
lines are at risk of permanent flooding within 50 to 100 years as global warming and land subsidence
(sinking) combine to produce an anticipated relative sea-level rise in the range of 4 feet.217 Since the
Gulf Coast region’s transportation network is interdependent and relies on minor roads and other low-
lying infrastructure, the risks of service disruptions due to sea-level rise are likely to be even greater.
217

2. 60,000 miles of highway are under threat from storm surge and sea level rise
United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
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More intense storms, especially when coupled with sea-level rise, will result in far-reaching and
damaging storm surges. An estimated 60,000 miles of coastal highway are already exposed to periodic
flooding from coastal storms and high waves.222 Some of these highways currently serve as
evacuation routes during hurricanes and other coastal storms, and these routes could become seriously
compromised in the future.

3. Increased precipitation can flood transportation lines


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
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Heavy downpours have already increased substantially in the United States; the heaviest 1 percent of precipitation
events increased by 20 percent, while total precipitation increased by only 7 percent over the past century.112 Such intense precipitation is
likely to increase the frequency and severity of events such as the Great Flood of 1993, which caused
catastrophic flooding along 500 miles of the Mississippi and Missouri river system, paralyzing surface
transportation systems, including rail, truck, and marine traffic. Major east-west traffic was halted for
roughly six weeks in an area stretching from St. Louis, Missouri, west to Kansas City, Missouri and
north to Chicago, Illinois, affecting one-quarter of all U.S. freight, which either originated or
terminated in the flood-affected region.222

The June 2008 Midwest flood was the second record-breaking flood in the past 15 years. Dozens of
levees were breached or overtopped in Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri, flooding huge areas, including nine
square miles in and around Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Numerous highway and rail bridges were impassable
due to flooding of approaches and transport was shut down along many stretches of highway, rail lines,
and normally navigable waterways.

B. Droughts

1. Drought will have wide-ranging effects on transportation


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
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Rising air temperatures increase evaporation, contributing to dry conditions, especially when
accompanied by decreasing precipitation. Even where total annual precipitation does not decrease,
precipitation is projected to become less frequent in many parts of the country.68 Drought is expected
to be an increasing problem in some regions; this, in turn, has impacts on transportation. For example,
increased susceptibility to wildfires during droughts could threaten roads and other transportation
infrastructure directly, or cause road closures due to fire threat or reduced visibility such as has occurred in
Florida and California in recent years. There is also increased susceptibility to mudslides in areas deforested by
wildfires. Airports could suffer from decreased visibility due to wildfires. River transport is seriously
affected by drought, with reductions in the routes available, shipping season, and cargo carrying
capacity.

C. Natural Disasters

1. More intense hurricanes will directly affect transportation


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
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More intense hurricanes in some regions are a projected effect of climate change. Three aspects of
tropical storms are relevant to transportation: precipitation, winds, and wind-induced storm surge.
Stronger hurricanes have longer periods of intense precipitation, higher wind speeds (damage increases
exponentially with wind speed228), and higher storm surge and waves. Transportation planners, designers, and operators may need to
adopt probabilistic approaches to developing transportation projects rather than relying on standards and the deterministic approaches of the past. The
uncertainty associated with projecting impacts over a 50- to 100-year time period makes risk management a reasonable approach for realistically
incorporating climate change into decision making and investment.215
SEA LEVELS

A. Erosion

1. Coastal erosion is and has been happening


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

Most of the world’s sandy shorelines retreated during the past century (Bird, 1985; NRC, 1990; Leatherman, 2001;
Eurosion, 2004) and sea-level rise is one underlying cause (see Section 6.2.5 and Chapter 1, Section 1.3.3). One half or more
of the Mississippi and Texas shorelines have eroded at average rates of 3.1 to 2.6 m/yr since the 1970s, while 90% of
the Louisiana shoreline eroded at a rate of 12.0 m/yr (Morton et al., 2004). In Nigeria, retreat rates up to 30
m/yr are reported (Okude and Ademiluyi, 2006). Coastal squeeze and steepening are also widespread as
illustrated along the eastern coast of the United Kingdom where 67% of the coastline experienced a
landward retreat of the low-water mark over the past century (Taylor et al., 2004).

2. Climate change will increase erosion


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

An acceleration in sea-level rise will widely exacerbate beach erosion around the globe (Brown and
McLachlan, 2002), although the local response will depend on the total sediment budget (Stive et al., 2002; Cowell et al., 2003a,b). The widely cited Bruun
(1962) model suggests that shoreline recession is in the range 50 to 200 times the rise in relative sea level. While
supported by field data in ideal circumstances (Zhang et al., 2004), wider application of the Bruun model remains controversial (Komar, 1998; Cooper and
An indirect, less-frequently examined influence of sea-level rise on the beach
Pilkey, 2004; Davidson-Arnott, 2005).
sediment budget is due to the infilling of coastal embayments. As sea-level rises, estuaries and lagoons
attempt to maintain equilibrium by raising their bed elevation in tandem, and hence potentially act as a
major sink of sand which is often derived from the open coast (van Goor et al., 2001; van Goor et al., 2003; Stive, 2004).
This process can potentially cause erosion an order of magnitude or more greater than that predicted by
the Bruun model (Woodworth et al., 2004), implying
the potential for major coastal instability due to sea-level rise in
the vicinity of tidal inlets. Several recent studies indicate that beach protection strategies and changes in the behaviour or frequency of storms
can be more important than the projected acceleration of sea-level rise in determining future beach erosion rates (Ahrendt, 2001; Leont’yev, 2003). Thus
there is not a simple relationship between sea-level rise and horizontal movement of the shoreline, and sediment budget approaches are most useful to
assess beach response to climate change (Cowell et al., 2006).

3. Coastal erosion means bigger, and more damaging, waves


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

The combined effects of beach erosion and storms can lead to the erosion or inundation of other coastal systems. For example, an
increase in
wave heights in coastal bays is a secondary effect of sandy barrier island erosion in Louisiana, and
increased wave heights have enhanced erosion rates of bay shorelines, tidal creeks and adjacent
wetlands (Stone and McBride, 1998; Stone et al., 2003). The impacts of accelerated sea-level rise on gravel beaches have received less attention than
sandy beaches. These systems are threatened by sea-level rise (Orford et al., 2001, 2003; Chadwick et al., 2005), even under high accretion rates
(Codignotto et al., 2001). The persistence of gravel and cobble-boulder beaches will also be influenced by storms, tectonic events and other factors that
build and reshape these highly dynamic shorelines (Orford et al., 2001).

B. Water Quality

1. As sea levels rise, freshwater quality will decline


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.) “Third
Assessment Report” 2001 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/

Water quality will be also affected by sealevel rise. More salty water will find its way into coastal
aquifers and estuaries, making freshwater brackish and eventually unsafe. This will have severe
impacts in some areas, particularly low-lying islands and atolls that rely on underground water for their
fresh-water supplies. Seawater intrusion will also affect the surface freshwater supplies of communities
living within estuaries.
With one third of the world’s population living in countries that already lack enough water, and with
populations and demand set to grow dramatically, freshwater supplies may be one our greatest
vulnerabilities in a climate change world.

2. Rising sea levels will impact freshwater supplies, and other infrastructures
Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office in Nairobi; founding
director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) “How
Will Global Warming Affect My World – A Simplified Guide to
the IPCC”s 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'” November 2003 UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

These impacts will have a strong influence on freshwater supplies, weather patterns and storms over the
oceans and coastal regions. Many coastal areas will experience more flooding, accelerated erosion, loss
of wetlands and mangroves and seawater intrusion into freshwater supplies.

The extent and severity of storm impacts, including storm-surge floods and shore erosion, will worsen
as a result of sea-level rise and other climate change impacts.

C. General

1. Rising sea levels will directly impact marine health, and the economies of coastal communities
Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office in Nairobi; founding
director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) “How
Will Global Warming Affect My World – A Simplified Guide to
the IPCC”s 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'” November 2003 UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

Future sea surface warming would place greater stress on coral reefs and result in a greater frequency
of marine diseases.

People living along the coasts and on low islands will be most directly affected by sealevel rise and by
economic impacts on fisheries, property and infrastructure, recreation facilities and so forth.
WILDLIFE/BIODIVERSITY

A. Extinction

1. Climate change will destroy biodiversity


Dr. Shahid Naeem(PhD, Zoology, University of California, Berkeley; Instructor, Invertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, 1989;
Instructor, Zoo-10 Introductory Zoology, University of
California, Berkeley, 1989; Postdoctoral Fellow, Marine Biological Laboratory, Hellsingør, University of Copenhagen, Denmark, 1991; Fellow, Michigan
Society of Fellows, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 1989-92; Postdoctoral Fellow, Centre for Population Biology, Silwood Park, Imperial
College, Ascot, Berkshire, England, 1992-94; Associate Professor, Dept. of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, USA,
1994-98; Professor, Dept. of Zoology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA, 1998-2003; Professor of Ecology, Department of Ecology, Evolution,
and Environmental Biology, Columbia University in the City of New York, NY, USA; Member, American Association for the Advancement of Science;
Member, American Institute of Biological Sciences; Member, American Society for Microbiology; Member, American Society of Naturalists; Member,
British Ecological Society; Member, Society for Conservation Biology; Member, Society for the Study of Evolution; ) “Biodiversity
and the
Climate Change Coup de Grace” August 2005 BIOSCIENCE 55(8):702-704. (BioOne Online
Journals)
Of all the well-known and dramatic drivers of biodiversity change, including habitat change, exotic species invasions, overexploitation, and pollution, why,
one might ask, do we need a stand-alone volume on climate change? The answer, at least according to the preface of Climate Change and Biodiversity, is
Climate change is “threatening to accelerate the loss of biodiversity already under way due to
simple.
other human stressors,” so much so that “it is now clear that climate change is the major new threat that
will confront biodiversity this century” (p. x). Biodiversity, already being driven to staggeringly low
levels by habitat change, invasions, overexploitation, and pollution, will be dealt its deathblow by
climate change.

2. Climate change causes more harm to biodiversity than good


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

Although land-use changes may dominate impacts in some areas, climate change generally exacerbates biodiversity risks,
especially in biodiversity hotspots and particularly for the first half of the 21st century (montane cloud forests –
Foster, 2001; Hawaii – Benning et al., 2002; Costa Rica – Enquist, 2002; Amazonia – Miles, 2002; Australia – Williams et al., 2003). In tropical
montane cloud forests, extinctions of amphibian species have been attributed to recent climate change
(Pounds et al., 2006; see Section 4.4.7 and Table 4.1, No. 2). In a few exceptions, climate change may increase diversity locally or regionally (Kienast et
al., 1998) but in most cases extinction risks are projected to increase.

3. Climate Change guts Biodiversity


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

Overall, climate change has been estimated to be a major driver of biodiversity loss in cool conifer forests, savannas,
mediterranean-climate systems, tropical forests, in the Arctic tundra, and in coral reefs (Thomas et al., 2004a; Carpenter et al., 2005; Malcolm et al., 2006).
In other ecosystems, land-use change may be a stronger driver of biodiversity loss at least in the near term. In an analysis of the SRES scenarios to 2100
(Strengers et al., 2004), deforestation is reported to cease in all scenarios except A2, suggesting that beyond 2050 climate change is very likely to be the
major driver for biodiversity loss globally. Due to climate change alone it has been estimated that by 2100 between 1% and 43% of endemic species
(average 11.6%) will be committed to extinction (DGVM-based study – Malcolm et al., 2006), whereas following another approach (also using climate
envelope modelling-based studies – Thomas et al., 2004a) it has been estimated that on average 15% to 37% of species (combination of most optimistic
assumptions 9%, most pessimistic 52%) will be committed to extinction by 2050 (i.e., their range sizes will have begun shrinking and fragmenting in a
way that guarantees their accelerated extinction). Climate-change-induced extinction rates in tropical biodiversity hotspots are likely to exceed the
predicted extinctions from deforestation during this century (Malcolm et al., 2006). In the mediterranean-climate region of South Africa, climate change
may have at least as significant an impact on endemic Protea species’ extinction risk as land-use change does by 2020 (Bomhard et al., 2005). Based on all
above findings and our compilation (Figure 4.4, Table 4.1) we
estimate that on average 20% to 30% of species assessed are
likely to be at increasingly high risk of extinction from climate change impacts possibly within this
century as global mean temperatures exceed 2°C to 3°C relative to pre-industrial levels (this chapter). The
uncertainties remain large, however, since for about 2°C temperature increase the percentage may be as low as 10% or for about 3°C as high as 40% and,
depending on biota, the range is between 1% and 80% (Table 4.1; Thomas et al., 2004a; Malcolm et al., 2006). As global average temperature exceeds 4°C
above pre-industrial levels, model projections suggest significant extinctions (40-70% species assessed) around the globe (Table 4.1).

4. Climate change can cause extinction of entire species


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.) “Third
Assessment Report” 2001 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/
The rate of climatic
The speed and magnitude of climate change affect the success of species, population, and community adaptation.
warming may exceed the rate of shifts in certain species ranges; these species could be seriously
affected or even disappear because they are unable to adapt (Chapter 5). Some plant and animal species
(such as endangered species generally and species adapted to narrow niches for which habitat is discontinuous and barriers impede or block migration)
and natural systems (such as coral reefs, mangroves, and other coastal wetlands; prairie wetlands; remnant native grasslands; montane
ecosystems near ridges and mountaintops; and ecosystems overlying permafrost) could be adversely affected by regional climatic
variations that correspond to a less than 1°C mean global warming by 2100. With mean warming of 1-
2°C by 2100, some regional changes would be significant enough so that adverse impacts to some of
these highly sensitive species and systems would become more severe and increase the risk of
irreversible damage or loss, and additional species and systems would begin to be adversely impacted.
Warming beyond 2°C would further compound the risks (note discussions and citations in Chapters 5 and 19).

B. Populations

1. Climate Change reduces wildlife populations [Graph]


The Program of Climate Economics of the Climate Leadership Initiative(The work of the CLI Program on Climate
Economics is supported by a steering committee of academic and private economists from across the West and nation. Steering committee members
provide overall guidance for the program, may be contracted to produce or contribute to economic assessments, and, serve as peer reviewers.) “An
Overview of Potentional Economic Costs to Washington of a Business-As-Usual Approach to Climate Change” February 17, 2009 CLIMATE
LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/docs/021609_ClimateEconomicsImpactsReport.pdf

Warmer stream temperatures resulting from increased global temperatures reduce the amount of habitat
that can viably support salmon, reducing salmon populations.

Later on in the article...

Potential Value of Reduced Salmon Populations


2020 2040 2080
$531 million $1.4 billion $3 billion

2. Grassland affects of climate change will lead to decreasing wildlife populations


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

The proportion of threatened mammal species may


Climate change impact studies for savanna and grassland fauna are few.
increase to between 10 and 40% between 2050 and 2080 (Thuiller et al., 2006a). Changing migration routes
especially threaten migratory African ungulates and their predators (Thirgood et al., 2004). Observed population declines
in three African savanna ungulates suggest that summer rainfall reductions could result in their local extirpation [of
African savanna ungulates] if regional climate change trends are sustained (Ogutu and Owen-Smith, 2003). For an
African arid savanna raptor, population declines have been simulated for drier, more variable rainfall
scenarios (Wichmann et al., 2003). A 4 to 98% species range reduction for about 80% of mainly savanna and grassland animal species in South Africa
is projected under an IS92a emissions scenario (Erasmus et al., 2002).

3. Warming will both increase and decrease populations of arctic species


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

While summer food availability may increase for some vertebrates (Hinzmanet al., 2005), formation of ice-crust at critical
winter times may reduce abundance of food below snow (Yoccoz and Ims, 1999; Aanes et al., 2002; Inkley et al., 2004).
Tundra wetland habitat for migrant birds may dry progressively (Hinzman et al., 2005; Smith et al., 2005). Many
species of Arctic-breeding shorebirds and waterfowl are projected to undergo major population declines
as tundra habitat shrinks (Box 4.5, Table 4.1). In contrast, northern range expansions of more southern species are expected, e.g., moose and
red fox (Callaghan et al., 2005). Some colonisers might ultimately need to be considered ‘invasive’ species (e.g., North American Mink – Neuvonen,
2004), such as presently-restricted populations of southern shrub species that are likely to spread in a warmer climate (Forbes, 1995) leading to possibly
increased carbon sequestration (Sturm et al., 2001; Tape et al., 2006; for a discussion of overall consequences for climate, see end of Section 4.4.6). For
arctic species such as the polar bear, increasing risks of extinction are associated with the projected large decrease in the extent of the sea-ice biome and
sea-ice cover (Box 4.3).

4. Warmer temperatures will reduce cattle production, and kill the animals
United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

Temperature and humidity interact to cause stress in animals, just as in humans; the higher the heat and
humidity, the greater the stress and discomfort, and the larger the reduction in the animals’ ability to
produce milk, gain weight, and reproduce. Milk production declines in dairy operations, the number of
days it takes for cows to reach their target weight grows longer in meat operations, conception rate in
cattle falls, and swine growth rates decline due to heat. As a result, swine, beef, and milk production are
all projected to decline in a warmer world.193

The projected increases in air temperatures will negatively affect confined animal operations (dairy, beef,
and swine) located in the central United States, increasing production costs as a result of reductions in
performance associated with lower feed intake and increased requirements for energy to maintain
healthy livestock. These costs do not account for the increased death of livestock associated with
extreme weather events such as heat waves.

Nighttime recovery is an essential element of survival when livestock are stressed by extreme heat. A
feature of recent heat waves is the lack of nighttime relief. Large numbers of deaths have occurred in
recent heat waves, with individual states reporting losses of 5,000 head of cattle in a single heat wave
in one summer.193

C. Disease

1. Climate change will increase plant and animal susceptibility to disease


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html
The importance of weeds and insect pests, and disease interactions with climate change, was reviewed in the TAR. New research confirms and extends
these findings, including competition between C3 and C4 species (Ziska, 2003; Ziska and George, 2004). In particular,
CO2-temperature
interactions are recognised as a key factor in determining plant damage from pests in future decades,
though few quantitative analyses exist to date; CO2-precipitation interactions will be likewise important (Stacey and Fellows,
2002; Chen et al., 2004; Salinari et al., 2006; Zvereva and Kozlov, 2006). Most studies continue to investigate pest damage as a separate function of either
CO2 (Chakraborty and Datta, 2003; Agrell et al., 2004; Chen et al., 2005a, 2005b) or temperature (Bale et al., 2002; Cocu et al., 2005; Salinari et al.,
recent warming trends in the U.S. and Canada have led to earlier spring activity of insects
2006). For instance,
and proliferation of some species, such as the mountain pine beetle (Crozier and Dwyer, 2006; see also Chapter 1). Importantly,
increased climate extremes may promote plant disease and pest outbreaks (Alig et al., 2004; Gan, 2004). Finally, new
studies, since the TAR, are focusing on the spread of animal diseases and pests from low to mid-latitudes due to warming, a continuance of trends already
under way (see Section 5.2). For instance, models project that bluetongue, which mostly affects sheep, and
occasionally goat and deer, would spread from the tropics to mid-latitudes (Anon, 2006; van Wuijckhuise et al., 2006).
Likewise, White et al. (2003) simulated, under climate change, increased vulnerability of the Australian beef
industry to the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus). Most assessment studies do not explicitly consider either pest-plant dynamics or impacts on
livestock health as a function of CO2 and climate combined.

2. Cattle-killing pathogens will thrive in a warmer environment


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

Warming also affects parasites and disease pathogens. The earlier arrival of spring and warmer winters
allow greater proliferation and survival of parasites and disease pathogens.193 In addition, changes in
rainfall distributions are likely to lead to changes in diseases sensitive to moisture. Heat stress reduces
animals’ ability to cope with other stresses, such as diseases and parasites. Furthermore, changes in
rainfall distributions could lead to changes in diseases sensitive to relative humidity.

3. Warmer climates spread pathogens


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

One consequence of a longer, warmer growing season and less extreme cold in winter is that
opportunities are created for many insect pests and disease pathogens to flourish. Accumulating
evidence links the spread of disease pathogens to a warming climate. For example, a recent study showed
that widespread amphibian extinctions in the mountains of Costa Rica are linked to changes in climatic
conditions which are thought to have enabled the proliferation of an amphibian disease.70,251

4. Climate change has been spreading disease


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

Diseases that affect wildlife and the living things that carry these diseases have been expanding their
geographic ranges as climate heats up. Depending on their specific adaptations to current climate, many parasites, and the insects,
spiders, and scorpions that carry and transmit diseases, die or fail to develop below threshold temperatures. Therefore, as temperatures rise,
more of these disease-carrying creatures survive. For some species, rates of reproduction, population
growth, and biting, tend to increase with increasing temperatures, up to a limit. Some parasites’
development rates and infectivity periods also increase with temperature.70 An analysis of diseases
among marine species found that diseases were increasing for mammals, corals, turtles, and mollusks,
while no trends were detected for sharks, rays, crabs, and shrimp.70
WEATHER EVENTS

A. Heat Waves

1. Increased heat waves from climate change will increase mortality rates
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.) “Third
Assessment Report” 2001 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/

Global climate change is likely to be accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat
waves, as well as warmer summers and milder winters (see Table 3-10). The impact of extreme summer heat
on human health may be exacerbated by increases in humidity (Gaffen and Ross, 1998; Gawith et al., 1999).

Daily numbers of deaths increase during very hot weather in temperate regions (Kunst et al., 1993; Ando, 1998a,b).
For example, in 1995, a heat wave in Chicago caused 514 heat-related deaths (12 per 100,000 population) (Whitman et al.,
1997), and a heat wave in London caused a 15% increase in all-cause mortality (Rooney et al., 1998). Excess mortality
during heat waves is greatest in the elderly and people with preexisting illness (Sartor et al., 1995; Semenza et al., 1996; Kilbourne, 1997; Ando et al.,
1998a,b). Much of this excess mortality from heat waves is related to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory disease. The mortality impact of a
heat wave is uncertain in terms of the amount of life lost; a proportion of deaths occur in susceptible persons who were likely to have died in the near
there is a high level of certainty that an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat
future. Nevertheless,
waves would increase the numbers of additional deaths from hot weather. Heat waves also are
associated with nonfatal impacts such as heat stroke and heat exhaustion (Faunt et al., 1995; Semenza et al., 1999).

2. Heat related deaths will outweigh lives saved by milder winters


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.) “Third
Assessment Report” 2001 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/

In many temperate countries, there is clear seasonal variation in mortality (Sakamoto-Momiyama, 1977; Khaw, 1995;
Laake and Sverre, 1996); death rates during the winter season are 10-25% higher than those in the summer.
Several studies indicate that decreases in winter mortality may be greater than increases in summer mortality under climate change (Langford and
Bentham, 1995; Martens, 1997; Guest et al., 1999). One study estimates a decrease in annual cold-related deaths of 20,000 in the UK by the 2050s (a
reduction of 25%) (Donaldson et al., 2001). However,
one study estimates that increases in heat-related deaths will be
greater than decreases in cold-related death in the United States by a factor of three (Kalkstein and Greene,
1997).

3. Heat waves will kill


Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office in Nairobi; founding
director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) “How
Will Global Warming Affect My World – A Simplified Guide to
the IPCC”s 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'” November 2003 UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf
The increased frequency and intensity of heat waves could lead to more deaths and serious illnesses, especially amongst the elderly and urban poor. Hotter
conditions would be exacerbated by greater humidity and urban air pollution. Studies suggest that a number of US cities would experience an average of
several hundred extra deaths each summer.

4. Climate change increases deadly heat waves


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

Temperatures are rising and the probability of severe heat waves is increasing. Analyses suggest that
currently rare extreme
heat waves will become much more common in the future (see National Climate Change).68 At
the same time, the U.S. population is aging, and older people are more vulnerable to hot weather and
heat waves. The percentage of the U.S. population over age 65 is currently 12 percent and is projected
to be 21 percent by 2050 (over 86 million people).163,274 Diabetics are also at greater risk of heat-related death,
and the prevalence of obesity and diabetes is increasing. Heat-related illnesses range from heat exhaustion to kidney
stones.275,276

5. Climate change will increase the frequency, severity, and duration of heat waves
United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

As human-induced warming is projected to raise average temperatures by about 6 to 11°F in this


century under a higher emissions scenario,91 heat waves are expected to continue to increase in
frequency, severity, and duration.68,112 For example, by the end of this century, the number of heat-wave
days in Los Angeles is projected to double,284 and the number in Chicago to quadruple,285 if emissions
are not reduced.

Projections for Chicago suggest that the average number of deaths due to heat waves would more than
double by 2050 under a lower emissions scenario91 and quadruple under a high emissions scenario91 (see figure page 90).283

A study of climate change impacts in California projects that, by the 2090s, annual heat-related deaths in Los Angeles would increase by two to three times
under a lower emissions scenario and by five to seven times under a higher emissions scenario, compared to a 1990s baseline of about 165 deaths. These
estimates assume that people will have become somewhat more accustomed to higher temperatures. Without such acclimatization, these estimates are
projected to be about 20 to 25 percent higher.284

6. Children are especially vulnerable to heat waves


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

Children’s small ratio of body mass to surface area and other factors make them vulnerable to heat
related illness and death. Their increased breathing rate relative to body size, additional time spent
outdoors, and developing respiratory tracts, heighten their sensitivity to air pollution. In addition,
children’s immature immune systems increase their risk of serious consequences from waterborne and
food-borne diseases, while developmental factors make them more vulnerable to complications from
severe infections such as E. coli or Salmonella.163

7. The poor are vulnerable to climate change


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

The greatest health burdens related to climate change are likely to fall on the poor, especially those
lacking adequate shelter and access to other resources such as air conditioning.163

8. The elderly are very vulnerable to heat waves


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

Elderly people are more likely to have debilitating chronic diseases or limited mobility. The elderly are
also generally more sensitive to extreme heat for several reasons. They have a reduced ability to
regulate their own body temperature or sense when they are too hot. They are at greater risk of heart
failure, which is further exacerbated when cardiac demand increases in order to cool the body during a
heat wave.318 Also, people taking medications, such as diuretics for high blood pressure, have a higher
risk of dehydration.163

9. Diabetes will exacerbate the effects of climate change


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector
The multiple health risks associated with diabetes will increase the vulnerability of the U.S. Population
to increasing temperatures. The number of Americans with diabetes has grown to about 24 million
people, or roughly 8 percent of the U.S. population. Almost 25 percent of the population 60 years and
older had diabetes in 2007.311 Fluid imbalance and dehydration create higher risks for diabetics during
heat waves. People with diabetesrelated heart disease are at especially increased risk of dying in heat
waves.318

B. Flooding

1. Climate change increases droughts and floods


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

A warmer climate, with its increased climate variability, will increase the risk of both floods and
droughts (Wetherald and Manabe, 2002; Table SPM2 in IPCC, 2007). As there are a number of climatic and non-climatic drivers influencing flood and
drought impacts, the realisation of risks depends on several factors. Floods include river floods, flash floods, urban floods and sewer floods, and can be
caused by intense and/or long-lasting precipitation, snowmelt, dam break, or reduced conveyance due to ice jams or landslides. Floods depend on
precipitation intensity, volume, timing, antecedent conditions of rivers and their drainage basins (e.g., presence of snow and ice, soil character, wetness,
urbanisation, and existence of dikes, dams, or reservoirs). Human encroachment into flood plains and lack of flood response plans increase the damage
potential.

2. Flood related costs will increase


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.) “Third
Assessment Report” 2001 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/

Floods are associated with particular dangers to human populations (Menne et al., 1999). Climate
change may increase the risk of
river and coastal flooding (see Chapters 4 and 6). The health impacts of floods may be divided into the immediate, medium, and long terms.
Immediate effects are largely death and injuries caused by drowning and being swept against hard
objects. Medium-term effects include increases in communicable diseases such as those caused by
ingestion of contaminated water (e.g., cholera, hepatitis A), contact with contaminated water (e.g., leptospirosis—see
Section 9.7.9.1), or respiratory diseases resulting from overcrowding in shelters. A study in populations displaced by
catastrophic floods in Bangladesh in 1988 found that diarrhea was the most common illness, followed by respiratory infection. Watery diarrhea was the
most common cause of death for all age groups under 45 (Siddique et al., 1991). In
rural Bangladesh and Khartoum, Sudan, the
proportion of severely malnourished children increased after flooding (Woodruff et al., 1990; Choudhury and Bhuiya,
1993). Also, in the aftermath of flooding, molds and fungi may grow on interior surfaces, providing a
potent stimulus to allergic persons (American Academy of Pediatrics, 1998).

3. Flooding spreads disease


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

Heavy rains can lead to flooding, which can cause health impacts including direct injuries as well as
increased incidence of waterborne diseases due to pathogens such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia.163
Downpours can trigger sewage overflows, contaminating drinking water and endangering beachgoers.
The consequences will be particularly severe in the roughly 770 U.S. cities and towns, including New
York, Chicago, Washington DC, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia, that have “combined sewer systems;” an
older design that carries storm water and sewage in the same pipes.299 During heavy rains, these
systems often cannot handle the volume, and raw sewage spills into lakes or waterways, including
drinking-water supplies and places where people swim.252

C. Droughts

1. Climate change increases droughts and floods


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

A warmer climate, with its increased climate variability, will increase the risk of both floods and
droughts (Wetherald and Manabe, 2002; Table SPM2 in IPCC, 2007). As there are a number of climatic and non-climatic drivers influencing flood and
drought impacts, the realisation of risks depends on several factors. Floods include river floods, flash floods, urban floods and sewer floods, and can be
caused by intense and/or long-lasting precipitation, snowmelt, dam break, or reduced conveyance due to ice jams or landslides. Floods depend on
precipitation intensity, volume, timing, antecedent conditions of rivers and their drainage basins (e.g., presence of snow and ice, soil character, wetness,
urbanisation, and existence of dikes, dams, or reservoirs). Human encroachment into flood plains and lack of flood response plans increase the damage
potential.

2. Drought conditions will increase damage by insects


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

Drought conditions further interact with disturbances such as insects (Hanson and Weltzin, 2000; Fleming et al., 2002;
Logan et al., 2003; Schlyter et al., 2006; Box 4.1) or fire (Flannigan et al., 2000). Tree-defoliating insects, especially in boreal
forests, periodically cause substantial damage (e.g., Gitay et al., 2001, Box 5-10; Logan et al., 2003). Insect pests were
found to be at least partly responsible for the decline and ultimate extirpation of stands at the southern
margins of the range of their hosts, subjected to warmer and drier conditions (Volney and Fleming, 2000; see also
Section 4.2.2). At the poleward ecotone (see Glossary), frosts and general low temperatures appear to limit insect outbreaks (Virtanen et al., 1996; Volney
outbreaks currently constrained from northern ranges could become more frequent in
and Fleming, 2000); thus
the future (Carroll et al., 2004). If climate warms and this ecotone becomes exposed to more droughts, insect
outbreaks will become a major factor (Logan et al., 2003; Gan, 2004). With A2 and B2 emissions scenarios downscaled to regional level
in northern Europe, projected climate extremes by 2070-2100 will increase the susceptibility of Norway spruce to secondary damage through pests and
pathogens, matched by an accelerated life cycle of spruce bark beetle populations (Schlyter et al., 2006).

D. Extreme Weather/Natural Disasters

1. Climate change increases mortality from extreme weather events


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.) “Third
Assessment Report” 2001 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/

Major impacts of climate change on human health are likely to occur via changes in the magnitude and
frequency of extreme events (see Table 3-10), which trigger a natural disaster or emergency. In developed countries,
emergency preparedness has decreased the total number of tropical cyclone-related deaths (see Section 7.2.2). However, in developed countries,
studies indicate an increasing trend in the number and impacts (deaths, injuries, economic losses) of all types of
natural disasters (IFRC, 1998; Munich Re, 1999). Some of the interannual variability in rates of persons affected by disasters may be associated
with El Niño (Bouma et al., 1997a). The average annual number of people killed by natural disasters between 1972 and 1996 was about 123,000. By far
the largest number of people affected (i.e., in need of shelter or medical care) are in Asia, and one study reveals that Africa suffers 60% of all disaster-
related deaths (Loretti and Tegegn, 1996).

Populations in developing countries are much more affected by extreme events. Relative to low
socioeconomic conditions, the impact of weather-related disasters in poor countries may be 20-30 times
larger than in industrialized countries. For example, floods and drought associated with the El Niño event of 1982-1983 led to losses of
about 10% in gross national product (GNP) in countries such as Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru (50% of their annual public revenue) (Jovel, 1989).

2. Extreme weather affects directly, and indirectly


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.) “Third
Assessment Report” 2001 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/

Extreme weather events cause death and injury directly. However, substantial indirect health impacts
also occur because of damage to the local infrastructure and population displacement (see also Section 9.10).
Following disasters, fatalities and injuries can occur as residents return to clean up damage and debris
(Philen et al., 1992). Bereavement, property loss, and social disruption may increase the risk of depression and
mental health problems (WHO, 1992). For example, cases of post-traumatic stress disorder were reported in
the United States up to 2 years after Hurricane Andrew (Norris et al., 1999). ← Chuck??

3. Warming will increase the destructive power of natural disasters


Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office in Nairobi; founding
director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) “How
Will Global Warming Affect My World – A Simplified Guide to
the IPCC”s 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'” November 2003 UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

Tropical cyclones (also known as hurricanes or typhoons) and tornadoes may become more destructive in a warmer
world and pose the next most serious threat after flooding. Other risks include windstorms, droughts
and wildfires, all of which are expected to increase. Heat waves will cause more illness and death and
encourage more energy use as people turn on their air conditioning systems. Energy supplies will be
further affected when winds and storms damage power lines. In some regions dwindling water supplies
will undermine hydropower generation.

4. Climate change will disrupt society through natural disasters and all their repercussions
Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office in Nairobi; founding
director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) “How
Will Global Warming Affect My World – A Simplified Guide to
the IPCC”s 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'” November
2003 UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

More frequent and intense storms, floods, droughts and cyclones will also harm human health. These
natural hazards can lead directly to death, injury and mental stress. Indirect effects would result from
the loss of shelter, contamination of water supplies, reduced food supplies, heightened risk of infectious
disease epidemics (such as diarrhea and respiratory disease), damage to health services infrastructure and the
displacement of people. In recent years, major climate-related disasters have had serious consequences
for human health, including Hurricane Mitch, which devastated Central America in 1998, as well as
floods in China, Bangladesh, Europe, Venezuela and Mozambique.

5. Climate change will disrupt infrastructure and communities


Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office in Nairobi; founding
director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) “How
Will Global Warming Affect My World – A Simplified Guide to
the IPCC”s 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'” November 2003 UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

Flooding, landslides, melting permafrost and sea-level rise will pose widespread risks to human
settlements as the climate changes. Snow and rainfall will be heavier, causing more severe and frequent
floods and mudflows. Coastal storm surges made more destructive by higher temperatures and sea-
level rise will increasingly threaten coastal communities. While people living along riverbanks and
seacoasts face clear risks, urban flooding due to intense precipitation could be a problem in all regions.
This is especially true where old-fashioned storm-water drains and water distribution and sewage
systems are already running near capacity or are poorly maintained.

E. Fire

1. Climate change will increase fire risks


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

Climate change is likely to increase fire frequency and fire extent. Greater fire frequencies are noted in
Mediterranean Basin regions (Pausas and Abdel Malak, 2004) with some exceptions (Mouillot et al., 2003). Double CO2 climate
scenarios increase wildfire events by 40-50% in California (Fried et al., 2004), and double fire risk in Cape
Fynbos (Midgley et al., 2005), favouring re-sprouting plants in Fynbos (Bond and Midgley, 2003), fire-tolerant shrub
dominance in the Mediterranean Basin (Mouillot et al., 2002), and vegetation structural change in California
(needle-leaved to broad-leaved trees, trees to grasses) and reducing productivity and carbon sequestration (Lenihan et al., 2003).
ECONOMY

A. General Costs

1. Climate change directly and indirectly affects economies


Hong Seung-je(Reporter) “Economic Growth Under Climate Change” December 9, 2008 THE
KOREA HERALD (Lexis-Nexis)

The IPCC has estimated that a doubling of carbon dioxide, which goes along with an increase in the global average surface
temperatures of between 1.5 and 4.5 degree Celsius, reduces the world's GDP by 1.5 to 2 percent. This damage
comprises both market and non-market impacts, where non-market impacts are direct reduction of
people's welfare resulting from a climate change.
Climate change literature produced so far suggests a wide array of channels through which climate may
affect economic outcomes, from agriculture to political instability. For example, higher temperatures could
lead directly to political instability by making a population more prone to riots, with possible effects on
growth. Conversely higher temperatures could lower agriculture yields, with the resulting GDP
reduction leading to political instability.
Recent research using the annual variations of temperature and precipitation in the past 50 years to examine the impact of climate change on economic
First, higher temperatures substantially reduce economic growth in
activity worldwide shows three primary results.
poor countries but have little effect in wealthy ones. Second, higher temperatures appear to reduce
growth rates in poor countries, rather than just the level of output. Third, higher temperatures have
wide-ranging effects in poor nations, reducing agricultural output, industrial output and aggregate
investment, while increasing political instability.
is there any link between climate change and economic growth? The causal chain linking economic
If so,
behavior today to economic consequences tomorrow via climate change can be summarized as follows:
Economic activities lead to increased emissions and concentrations to result in climate change. This
damages physical and ecological systems, and finally affects economies.

2. Climate change will ruin women's livelihoods


Public Agenda, “The Climate Change Threat, Women's Livelihoods At Stake” September 1, 2008
AFRICA NEWS (Lexis)
This is in view of the fact that in
Ghana for instance, women constitute about 51% of the population and about 30%
of them are heads of households. . "They constitute 52% of the agricultural labour force, contribute
46% to the total GDP and produce 70% of subsistent crops. They play major roles in production and
distribution" according to figures from the Ministry of Agriculture.
Incidentally, a lot of Ghanaian women depend on their ecosystem to provide food, energy, water and
medicine; and it is this ecosystem that is under threat. "The impacts of climate change will affect a
whole host of areas including habitats, wildlife, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. There will also be
severe adverse changes in soil, arid lands, coastal zones and tropical forests."
"Ghana Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments" is the title of a book that made the rounds at the Accra International
Conference Centre where the climate change talks took place.
This book, published only now by the Environmental Protection Agency, contains a study by Patience Damptey and Angelina Tutuah Mensah that says that
in view of their numbers and contribution to agriculture, women, as in many other cases, stand a greater
risk in respect of a climate induced disaster. "Given the variety of women's daily interactions with the
environment, they are the most keenly affected by its degradation including climate change."
The study indicates that climate
change will systematically affect women due to their reliance on subsistence
farming activities. This is also because the climatic changes will affect soil conditions and therefore
would have an adverse impact on food production. "Women's income from their livelihoods and other
economic activities will become critical thus making them poorer. This reinforces the importance of the
environment and particularly climate change in women's lives."

3. Climate change laundry list on the effects on the economy


The Program of Climate Economics of the Climate Leadership Initiative(The work of the CLI Program on Climate
Economics is supported by a steering committee of academic and private economists from across the West and nation. Steering committee members
provide overall guidance for the program, may be contracted to produce or contribute to economic assessments, and, serve as peer reviewers.) “An
Overview of Potentional Economic Costs to Washington of a Business-As-Usual Approach to Climate Change” February 17, 2009 CLIMATE
LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/docs/021609_ClimateEconomicsImpactsReport.pdf

climate-related economic harm can occur


The bottom of Figure 5 illustrates that
in several ways. This summary illustrates each mechanism in greater detail:

• Reduction in human health and other constituents of quality of life. Hotter temperatures can increase human mortality;
reductions in stream flows can reduce boating, fishing, and other recreational opportunities.
• Reduction in the value of assets or in the level of income. Increased flooding from climate-related storms can reduce the
value of exposed properties and disrupt employment for workers at commercial and industrial
enterprises in low-lying areas.
• Increase in climate-related expenditures and, hence, decrease in income available for other purposes. Households, businesses, and
government are likely to increase spending on health-related issues in response to higher temperatures,
leaving less money for discretionary household spending, business investment and profits, and
government services.
• Reduction in the value of goods and services derived from the ecosystem. Changes in climate can diminish an ecosystem’s
ability to provide valuable goods and services, such as those illustrated in Figure 5. The reduced supply of
ecosystem goods and services can reduce the quality of life in a community and increase costs for
families, businesses, and governments.
• Loss of employment or reduction in employment opportunities. Workers may be harmed when climate-related events, such
as floods or wildland fires, cause them to lose their jobs and incomes. The indirect effects of climate
change also may lead to similar outcomes, as businesses move away from areas affected by drought to
areas with greater availability of water.
• Increase in risk or uncertainty about future economic conditions. All else equal, the economic well-being of most families,
businesses, and communities is diminished when they experience higher risk, i.e., a higher probability
of having bad things happen to them, and greater uncertainty about the probability that such events will
occur. The prospect of climate change increases both.
• Increase in unprecedented economic conditions. Preparation for and adaptation to new conditions will generate new
costs that were not necessary to address similar concerns in the past. Climatic, environmental, and
economic variations in the past provide reference for families, businesses and communities to
anticipate impacts and adapt their activities. Insofar as climate change generates conditions not
experienced in the past, preparation and adaptation will be more costly in terms of requiring new
information, institutions, infrastructure, and behaviors.
• Undesirable shift in the distribution of wealth, income, and other indicators of economic well-being.
Many Americans may experience harm when climate change, or changes in ecosystems and social
systems that stem from it, generate economic benefits for one group while imposing costs on another,
especially if the latter is poor or otherwise disadvantaged. Similar harm may occur if changes in
climate cause the extinction of species or the loss of notable landscapes and other natural resources so
they will not be available to future generations.

B. Tangible Costs

1. Climate change will decrease property values [Graph]


The Program of Climate Economics of the Climate Leadership Initiative(The work of the CLI Program on Climate
Economics is supported by a steering committee of academic and private economists from across the West and nation. Steering committee members
provide overall guidance for the program, may be contracted to produce or contribute to economic assessments, and, serve as peer reviewers.) “An
Overview of Potentional Economic Costs to Washington of a Business-As-Usual Approach to Climate Change” February 17, 2009 CLIMATE
LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/docs/021609_ClimateEconomicsImpactsReport.pdf

Rising global temperature leads to increased sea levels, which will inundate valuable property and
structures.

Later on in the article...

Potential Value of Property Damage from Sea Level Rise


2020 2040 2080
$21 million $44 million $97 million

2. Climate Change's total economic cost to Washington


[Note: Read the bolded parts]
The Program of Climate Economics of the Climate Leadership Initiative(The work of the CLI Program on Climate
Economics is supported by a steering committee of academic and private economists from across the West and nation. Steering committee members
provide overall guidance for the program, may be contracted to produce or contribute to economic assessments, and, serve as peer reviewers.) “An
Overview of Potentional Economic Costs to Washington of a Business-As-Usual Approach to Climate Change” February 17, 2009 CLIMATE
LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/docs/021609_ClimateEconomicsImpactsReport.pdf

Figure 1. Potential Economic Costs in Washington Under a Business-as-Usual


Approach to Climate Change, 2020, 2040, and 2080 (dollars per year)
Approach to Climate Change, 2020, 2040, and 2080 (dollars per year)
Potential Cost 2020 2040 2080
Costs of Climate Change
Increased Energy-Related Costs $222 million $623 million $1.5 million
Reduced Salmon Populations $531 million $1.4 billion $3.0
billion
Increased Coastal and Storm Damage $72 million $150 million $352
million
Reduced Food Production $35 million $64 million $364 million
Increased Wildland Fire Costs $102 million $208 million $462
million
Increased Health-Related Costs $1.3 billion $2.2 billion $4.4 billion
Lost Recreation Opportunities $75 million $210 million $612
million

Subtotal for Costs of Climate Change $2.3 billion $4.9 billion $10.7
billion

[READ!!!] *Additional Costs from Business-as-Usual (BAU) Activities that Contribute to Climate
Change* [READ!!!]

Inefficient Consumption of Energy $1.4 billion $1.6 billion $2.2 billion


Increased Health Costs from Coal-Fired Emissions $19 million $23 million $31
million

Subtotal for Costs from BAU Activities $1.4 billion $1.6 billion $2.2
billion

TOTAL $3.8 billion $6.5 billion $12.9


billion

Average Cost per Household per Year $1,250 $1,800 $2,750

3. Life lost due to climate change will cost $6-$88 billion


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

Studies focusing on the welfare costs (and benefits) of climate-change impacts aggregate the ‘damage’
costs of climate change (Tol, 1995, 1996, 2002a, b; Fankhauser and Tol, 1997; Fankhauser et al., 1997) or estimate the costs and benefits of
measures to reduce climate change (Nordhaus, 1991; Cline, 1992, 2004; Nordhaus and Boyer, 2000). The global economic value of loss
of life due to climate change ranges between around US$6 billion and US$88 billion, in 1990 dollar
prices (Tol, 1995, 1996, 2002a, b; Fankhauser and Tol, 1997; Fankhauser et al., 1997). The economic methods for estimating welfare costs (and
benefits) have several shortcomings; the studies include only a limited number of health outcomes, generally heat- and cold-related mortality and malaria.
Some assessments of the direct costs of health impacts at the national level have been undertaken, but the evidence base for estimating the health effects is
relatively weak (IGCI, 2000; Turpie et al., 2002; Woodruff et al., 2005). Where they have been estimated, the welfare costs of health impacts contribute
substantially to the total costs of climate change (Cline, 1992; Tol, 2002a). Given the importance of these types of assessments, further research is needed.
C. Overview

1. The costs will outweigh the benefits


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.) “Third
Assessment Report” 2001 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/

Although some regions may experience beneficial effects of climate change (e.g., increasing agricultural productivity
at high latitudes), previous IPCC assessments have concluded that net negative climate impacts are more
likely in most parts of the world (assessment of potential positive and negative impacts is one of the main purposes of this report; see
Sections 2.5.6 and 2.6.4 and subsequent sections in this chapter for a discussion of uses of and problems with net monetary aggregation of impacts, and see
Chapter 19 for a synthesis). These
impacts will affect human welfare directly and indirectly, in many cases
undercutting efforts to promote sustainable development that, in turn, serve as driving forces of
environmental change.
AIR POLLUTION

1. Climate change causes ozone depletion


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.) “Third
Assessment Report” 2001 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/

Stratospheric ozone destruction is an essentially separate process from greenhouse gas (GHG) accumulation in
the lower atmosphere. However, not only are several of the anthropogenic GHGs [e.g., chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and N2O] also ozone-depleting
gases but tropospheric warming apparently induces stratospheric cooling, which exacerbates ozone
destruction (Shindell et al., 1998; Kirk-Davidoff et al., 1999). Stratospheric ozone shields the Earth's surface from
incoming solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR), which has harmful effects on human health. Long-term
decreases in summertime ozone over New Zealand have been associated with significant increases in
ground-level UVR, particularly in the DNA-damaging waveband (McKenzie et al., 1999). In a warmer world, patterns of
personal exposure to solar radiation (e.g., sunbathing in temperate climates) also are likely to change.

Many epidemiological studies have implicated solar radiation as a cause of skin cancer (melanoma and other types) in fair-skinned humans (IARC, 1992;
WHO, 1994). The most recent assessment by UNEP (1998) projects significant increases in skin cancer incidence as a result of stratospheric ozone
depletion. High-intensity UVR also damages the eye's outer tissue, causing "snowblindness"—the ocular equivalent of sunburn. Chronic exposure to UVR
is linked to conditions such as pterygium (WHO, 1994). The role of UV-B in cataract formation is complex. Some cataract subtypes appear to be associated
with UVR exposure, whereas others do not. In humans and experimental animals, UVR can cause local and whole-body immunosuppression (UNEP,
1998). Cellular immunity has been shown to be affected by ambient doses of UVR (Garssen et al., 1998). Concern exists that UVR-induced
immunosuppression could influence patterns of infectious disease. Nevertheless, no direct evidence exists for such effects in humans, and uncertainties
remain about the underlying biological processes.

2. Climate change exacerbates air pollution


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.) “Third
Assessment Report” 2001 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/

Weather has a major influence on the dispersal and ambient concentrations of air pollutants. Large
high-pressure systems often create an inversion of the normal temperature profile, trapping pollutants
in the shallow boundary layer at the Earth's surface. It is difficult to predict the impact of climate
change on local urban climatology and, therefore, on average local air pollution concentrations.
However, any increase in anticyclonic conditions in summer would tend to increase air pollution
concentrations in cities (Hulme and Jenkins, 1998).
Formation and destruction of ozone is accelerated by increases in temperature and ultraviolet radiation. Existing air quality models have been used to
examine the effect of climate change on ozone concentrations (e.g., Morris et al., 1989; Penner et al., 1989; Morris et al., 1995; Sillman and Samson,
1995). The
models indicate that decreases in stratospheric ozone and elevated temperature increase
ground-level ozone concentration. An increase in occurrence of hot days could increase biogenic and
anthropogenic emissions of volatile organic compounds (e.g., from increased evaporative emissions from fuel-injected
automobiles) (Sillman and Samson, 1995). These studies of the impact of climate change on air quality must be considered indicative but by no means
definitive. Important local weather factors may not be adequately represented in these models.

3. Climate change will lead to lower air quality


Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office in Nairobi; founding
director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) “How
Will Global Warming Affect My World – A Simplified Guide to
the IPCC”s 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'” November
2003 UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

Climate change will undermine air quality in cities. Higher temperatures (possibly accompanied by more ultraviolet
radiation) will promote the formation of surface ozone, a pollutant that harms human respiratory health as
well as plants.

Higher temperatures and changes in precipitation and climate variability would alter, and in some cases
extend, the geographic range and seasonality of vector-borne diseases.
WATER

A. Wetlands

1. Climate variability will negatively impact wetlands


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

Small increases in the variability of precipitation regimes will significantly impact wetland plants and
animals at different stages of their life cycle (Keddy, 2000). In monsoonal regions, increased variability risks
diminishing wetland biodiversity and prolonged dry periods promote terrestrialisation of wetlands as
witnessed in Keoladeo National Park, India (Chauhan and Gopal, 2001; Gopal and Chauhan, 2001). In dryland wetlands, changes in
precipitation regimes may cause biodiversity loss (Bauder, 2005). Changes in climate and land use will
place additional pressures on already-stressed riparian ecosystems along many rivers in the world (Naiman
et al., 2005). An increase or decrease in freshwater flows will also affect coastal wetlands (Chapter 6) by
altering salinity, sediment inputs and nutrient loadings (Schallenberg et al., 2001; Flöder and Burns, 2004).

B. Rainfall

1. Warming will increase the amount of precipitation, but lower the overall moisture content
United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

While it sounds counterintuitive, a warmer world produces both wetter and drier conditions. Even
though total global precipitation increases, the regional and seasonal distribution of precipitation
changes, and more precipitation comes in heavier rains (which can cause flooding) rather than light events. In the
past century, averaged over the United States, total precipitation has increased by about 7 percent, while the heaviest 1 percent of rain events increased by
nearly 20 percent.68 This has been especially noteworthy in the Northeast, where the annual number of days with very heavy precipitation has increased
most in the past 50 years, as shown in the adjacent figure. Flooding often occurs when heavy precipitation persists for weeks to months in large river
basins. Such extended periods of heavy precipitation have also been increasing over the past century, most notably in the past two to three decades in the
United States.112 Observations also show that over the past several decades, extended dry periods have become more frequent in parts of the United
States, especially the Southwest and the eastern United States.146,147

Longer periods between rainfalls, combined with higher air temperatures, dry out soils and vegetation,
causing drought. For the future, precipitation intensity is projected to increase everywhere, with the
largest increases occurring in areas in which average precipitation increases the most. For example, the
Midwest and Northeast, where total precipitation is expected to increase the most, would also
experience the largest increases in heavy precipitation events. The number of dry days between
precipitation events is also projected to increase, especially in the more arid areas. Mid-continental
areas and the Southwest are particularly threatened by future drought. The magnitude of the projected
changes in extremes is expected to be greater than changes in averages, and hence detectable sooner.
49,68,90,142,148

C. Pollution

1. Increased water temperatures will lower water quality


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

Higher water temperature and variations in runoff are likely to produce adverse changes in water
quality affecting human health, ecosystems, and water use (Patz, 2001; Lehman, 2002; O’Reilly et al., 2003; Hurd et al.,
2004). Lowering of the water levels in rivers and lakes will lead to the re-suspension of bottom sediments
and liberating compounds, with negative effects on water supplies (Atkinson et al., 1999). More intense rainfall
will lead to an increase in suspended solids (turbidity) in lakes and reservoirs due to soil fluvial erosion
(Leemans and Kleidon, 2002), and pollutants will be introduced (Mimikou et al., 2000; Neff et al., 2000; Bouraoui et al., 2004).
Higher surface water temperatures will promote algal blooms (Hall et al., 2002; Kumagai et al., 2003) and
increase the bacteria and fungi content (Environment Canada, 2001). This may lead to a bad odour and taste in chlorinated
drinking water and the occurrence of toxins (Moulton and Cuthbert, 2000; Robarts et al., 2005). Moreover, even with enhanced phosphorus
removal in wastewater treatment plants, algal growth may increase with warming over the long term (Wade et al., 2002). Due to the high cost
and the intermittent nature of algal blooms, water utilities will be unable to solve this problem with the
available technology (Environment Canada, 2001). Increasing nutrients and sediments due to higher runoff,
coupled with lower water levels, will negatively affect water quality (Hamilton et al., 2001), possibly rendering
a source unusable unless special treatment is introduced (Environment Canada, 2004). Furthermore, higher water
temperatures will enhance the transfer of volatile and semi-volatile compounds (e.g., ammonia,
mercury, dioxins, pesticides) from surface water bodies to the atmosphere (Schindler, 2001).

2. As rainfall increases (via Climate Change), so will pesticide and pollutant runoff
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

In regions where intense rainfall is expected to increase, pollutants (pesticides, organic matter, heavy metals, etc.) will
be increasingly washed from soils to water bodies (Fisher, 2000; Boorman, 2003b; Environment Canada, 2004). Higher
runoff is expected to mobilise fertilisers and pesticides to water bodies in regions where their
application time and low vegetation growth coincide with an increase in runoff (Soil and Water Conservation
Society, 2003). Also, acidification in rivers and lakes is expected to increase as a result of acidic atmospheric
deposition (Ferrier and Edwards, 2002; Gilvear et al., 2002; Soulsby et al., 2002).

3. Warmer temperatures increase the number of water- and food-borne diseases


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.) “Third
Assessment Report” 2001 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/

Water- and food-borne diseases tend to show marked seasonality, with peaks in early spring or summer.
Higher temperatures favor microorganism proliferation and often are associated with an increase in
gastrointestinal infections. Above-average temperatures in Peru during the 1997-1998 El Niño were associated with a doubling in the number
of children admitted to the hospital with diarrhea (Checkley et al., 2000). Higher temperatures also can trigger spore maturation
(e.g., Cyclospora cayetanensis—Ortega et al., 1993; Smith et al., 1997). In Peru, the incidence of cyclosporosis peaks in the summer months (Madico et
al., 1997). Because
climate change is expected to entail warmer springs and summers, additional cases of
food-borne disease may occur, if current trends continue (Bentham and Langford, 1995). In most developed countries, food-
borne disease incidence is increasing as a result of changes in behavior, consumption patterns, and commerce.

4. Warming will decrease respiratory and purification water systems


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

Increased air temperatures lead to higher water temperatures, which have already been detected in many streams, especially
during low-flow periods. In lakes and reservoirs, higher water temperatures lead to longer periods of summer
stratification (when surface and bottom waters do not mix). Dissolved oxygen is reduced in lakes,
reservoirs, and rivers at higher temperatures. Oxygen is an essential resource for many living things,
and its availability is reduced at higher temperatures both because the amount that can be dissolved in
water is lower and because respiration rates of living things are higher. Low oxygen stresses aquatic
animals such as coldwater fish and the insects and crustaceans on which they feed.142 Lower oxygen
levels also decrease the self purification capabilities of rivers.

5. Water pollution and its impacts are expected to increase


United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

The negative effects of water pollution, including sediments, nitrogen from agriculture, disease pathogens, pesticides, herbicides, salt,
and thermal pollution, will be amplified by observed and projected increases in precipitation intensity and
longer periods when streamflows are low.146 The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency expects the
number of waterways considered “impaired” by water pollution to increase.162 Heavy downpours lead
to increased sediment in runoff and outbreaks of waterborne diseases.163,164 Increases in pollution
carried to lakes, estuaries, and the coastal ocean, especially when coupled with increased temperature,
can result in blooms of harmful algae and bacteria. However, pollution has the potential of being diluted in regions that
experience increased streamflow.

D. General

1. Water supply costs will outweigh the benefits


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)
“Fourth Assessment Report” 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

With respect to water supply, it is very likely that the costs of climate change will outweigh the
benefits. One reason is that precipitation variability is very likely to increase. The impacts of floods and
droughts could be tempered by appropriate infrastructure investments, and by changes in water and
land-use management, but all of these responses entail costs (US Global Change Research Program, 2000). Another
reason is that water infrastructure, use patterns, and institutions have developed in the context of
current conditions (Conway, 2005). Any substantial change in the frequency of floods and droughts or in the
quantity and quality or seasonal timing of water availability will require adjustments that may be costly
not only in monetary terms, but also in terms of societal impacts, including the need to manage
potential conflicts among different interest groups (Miller et al., 1997).

2. Water systems are already under stress; Climate change will exacerbate
United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on
changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by
Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program
which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")
“Climate Change Impacts By Sector” June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAME
http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

the nation’s water systems are already taxed due to aging infrastructure, population
In many places,
increases, and competition among water needs for farming, municipalities, hydropower, recreation, and
ecosystems.167-169 Climate change will add another factor to existing water management challenges,
thus increasing vulnerability.170 The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has identified many areas in the
West that are already at risk for serious conflict over water, even in the absence of climate change171
(see figure next page).
MISCELLANEOUS

1. Warming is happening, and a little increase causes huge impacts


Edward L Miles(PhD, International Relations/Comparative Politics, Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1965;
Instructor, International Relations, Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1965-66; Assistant Professor, International
Studies,Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1966-70; Associate Professor, International Studies, Graduate School of
International Studies, University of Denver, 1970-74; Professor of Marine Studies and Public Affairs, Institute for Marine Studies, University of
Washington; Director, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, 1982-93; Virginia and Prentice Bloedel Professor, Marine Studies & Public
Affairs, University of Washington; Senior Fellow, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Co-Director, Center for Science in The Earth
System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington; Member, Advisory Panel, National Sea Grant Program,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US Department of Commerce, 1970-72; International Affairs Fellowship, Council on Foreign
Relations, 1972-73; Chairman, Ocean Policy Committee, National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council, 1974-79; Principal Investigator,
North Pacific Project, Institute for Marine Studies, University of Washington, supported by the Rockefeller Foundation, 1976-80; Principal Investigator,
North Pacific Project, Institute for Marine Studies, University of Washington, supported by the National Science Foundation, 1980-83; Chairman,
Advisory Committee for International Programs, National Science Foundation, 1990-92; Principal Investigator Project on the Impacts of Climate
Variability, Climate Change, and Response Strategies in the Pacific Northwest, supported by the Office of Global Programs, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration; Member, Climate and Global Change Advisory Panel, Office of Global Programs, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, 1996-2003; Member, Advisory Committee on Applications, International Research Institute for Climate Predictions, Lamont-Doherty
Earth Observatory, Columbia University, 1996-2004; Member, US National Academy of Sciences; Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of
Science; Member, Board of Directors, Union of Concerned Scientists; Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2009) “On the Increasing
Vulnerability of the World Ocean to Multiple Stresses” August 2009 ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND
RESOURCES (Annual Reviews)

Finally, the authors Levitus


et al. (5) point out that the increase of 0.037°C is a very large number indeed and
demonstrate that statement by a thought experiment. If the increase had been 0.1°C, this would be
equivalent to a mean temperature change of 100°C if all heat were instantaneously transferred to the
atmosphere. Subsequent to the Levitus et al. (5) work, Fukusawa et al. (45) have reported detection of
increasing heat content in the deepest waters of the North Pacific beyond 5000 m across the width of
the entire North Pacific basin. At this level, there were no indications of seasonal variability, but basin-wide warming of ~0.005°C was
detected with no changes in the salinity field. The absence of salinity changes was taken to represent advection as the cause rather than changes in heat
flow through the benthic boundary layer.

2. We have reached the tipping point


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,
established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It
reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate
change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute
to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current
information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the
IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC
Bureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique
opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the
authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.) “Third
Assessment Report” 2001 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/

We have reached the point that the cumulative interaction of several factors related to human activities
(e.g., land-use changes and emissions of GHGs, ozone-depleting substances, and local air pollutants) increases the risk of causing or
aggravating potentially irreversible events, such as loss of species, forests, human settlements, glaciers,
or heritage sites near coastlines and, in the long term, altered oceanic circulation regimes.
3. Preventive action will benefit us, whether or not the climate changes
Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office in Nairobi; founding
director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) “How
Will Global Warming Affect My World – A Simplified Guide to
the IPCC”s 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'” November 2003 UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

Yet another advantage is that many


adaptation measures will help people whether or not the climate changes. For
example, adapting to current climate risks such as droughts and storms will offer immediate benefits to
today’s most vulnerable people as well as benefits that will be appreciated by future generations.
Similarly, adaptation measures can be incorporated into programmes that address existing non-climate
stresses, such as biodiversity loss. The more we strengthen our societies today, and the more we work
towards a healthier natural environment, the better prepared and more resilient our world will be in the
future.