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Bottom line:
CCME’s well defended niche and cash rich balance sheet ($100M net cash) support a sustainable and
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high growth outlook for its business. We expect the release of strong 4 quarter audited results and
positive guidance for 2010 to be the catalyst to move the shares towards our short term target of $20.00.
Cost of sales 13.2 25.1 7.1 7.2 8.6 10.3 33.2 10.4 12.1 13.4 15.6 51.6 74.5
Gross profit 12.7 37.9 11.6 11.9 17.5 20.8 61.8 71.5 21.2 21.5 22.9 25.5 91.1 140.9 116.5 219.5
Selling expenses 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.3 1.4 1.9 3.8 2.3 2.9 3.5 5.1 13.9 20.6
G&A 0.7 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.2 3.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.8 5.4 8.2
Total operating exp. 1.7 2.8 1.1 0.8 2.0 3.1 7.0 3.6 4.0 4.7 6.9 19.3 28.8
Operating income 11.0 35.1 10.5 11.1 15.5 17.8 54.9 17.6 17.4 18.2 18.6 71.8 87.7
Interest income 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Income before taxes 11.0 35.2 10.6 11.1 15.5 17.7 54.9 60.2 17.6 17.4 18.2 18.6 71.8 119.4 87.7 186.1
Income tax 4.1 8.9 3.1 2.8 3.9 4.4 14.3 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.6 18.0 21.9
Net income 7.0 26.4 7.5 8.3 11.6 13.3 40.6 13.2 13.1 13.7 13.9 53.9 65.8
Foreign cur. Trans. 0.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Income 7.3 27.4 7.4 8.3 11.6 13.2 40.5 42.0 42.1 13.2 13.1 13.7 13.9 53.9 55.0 83.6 65.8 70.0 130.3
Key metrics:
EPS - f.d. 0.21 0.78 0.21 0.24 0.33 0.38 1.16 1.20 1.17 0.33 0.33 0.35 0.35 1.36 1.39 1.76 1.66 1.77 2.39
P/E 55.3 14.8 10.0 8.5 7.0
D&A 1.6 2.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 3.4 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 5.2 6.9
EBITDA 12.6 38.0 11.3 11.9 16.3 18.8 58.2 65.5 18.6 18.6 19.6 20.2 77.0 128.5 94.6 197.8
EV/EBITDA 22.4 7.5 4.9 4.5 4.4 3.3 3.6 2.6
# of buses EOP 10,053 15,260 16,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 20,000 21,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 28,000 30,000 33,000
Quarterly rev. per bus 1,156 1,244 1,201 1,193 1,535 1,637 1,348 1,545 1,491 1,453 1,523 1,486 1,638 1,565
Annual growth 29% 8% 8% 10% 5%
Revenue growth 540% 276% 24% 24% 65% 86% 51% 65% 69% 76% 39% 32% 50% 34%
EBITDA growth 548% 269% 23% 28% 75% 82% 53% 72% 65% 57% 20% 7% 32% 23%
Gross margin 49% 60% 62% 62% 67% 67% 65% 69% 67% 64% 63% 62% 64% 72% 61% 72%
Selling exp % of sales 4% 2% 1% 1% 5% 6% 4% 7% 9% 10% 13% 10% 11%
Opex % of sales 6% 4% 6% 4% 8% 10% 7% 11% 12% 13% 17% 14% 15%
EBITDA margin 49% 60% 60% 62% 63% 60% 61% 63% 59% 56% 54% 49% 54% 65% 50% 65%
Tax rate 37% 25% 29% 25% 25% 25% 26% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Assumptions / Notes:
Assumes no new acquisitions are made with $77M cash raised in Jan 2010.
Gross margins decline in 2010 and 2011 reflecting higher concession fees to bus operators offset by some degree by a greater % of direct advertising clients.
Selling expense as % of revenues increases by 6% in 2010 reflecting much larger direct sales force in 2010.
No change to RMB exchange rate in 2010 or 2011.
Net debt / (cash) includes cash from warrants redemption, net cash from the Starr Jan 2010 $30M financing, and estimated Dec 31, 2009 company net cash balance.
SA refers to SPAC Analytics forecast.
Starr refers to minimum net income targets per recent $30M Starr International preferred financing.
CCME refers to the share based net income earn out targets per the SPAC merger transaction.
Fully diluted EPS assumes all warrants and convertible preferred securities are converted into common shares.
CCME should avoid pricing & margin pressure due to its dominate share and
unique cooperation agreement with the Chinese government
CCME controls over 32% of the China inter-city express bus television advertising market and by the end
of 2010 CCME should control over 45% of the market. At the end of 2009 CCME had 20,000+ buses on
its network, with 41,000+ television displays and a monthly audience of over 100 million people.
Management expects to grow CCME’s network to over 30,000 buses by the end of this year. The
estimated total market is 65,000+ buses with 27+ passengers.
CCME’s large network is highly attractive to advertisers who want to work with a supplier who has
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substantial scale to provide access to China’s growing middle class in high growth 2 and 3 tier cities.
A key factor in CCME’s success is a five year cooperation agreement it signed with the Transport
Television and Audio-Video Center, an entity affiliated with the Ministry of Transport of the People’s
Republic of China. The agreement designates CCME as the sole strategic alliance partner in the
establishment of a nationwide in-vehicle television system on buses traveling on highways in China. The
agreement gives CCME preferential status as the only authorized inter-city bus advertising company by
the government and serves as a strong tool to sign new bus operators to CCME’s network and to deter
new competitors from entering the inter-city bus advertising market. The cooperation agreement expires
in October 2012. In the unlikely case the agreement is not renewed it would obviously be a negative
development but not a disaster. The majority of CCME’s 47 bus operators have signed five to eight year
contracts in the past year and several new bus operators are expected to be signed to long term
contracts between now and the end of 2012.
Effectively with this cooperation agreement CCME has at minimum a 2.5 year window to further increase
its market share of the inter-city bus market with little competition. This reduces the pressure on CCME to
pay high concession fees to bus operators and/or reduce its CPM rates to keep business. Thus, CCME’s
business has a substantial advantage to several other China out-of-home advertising companies whose
verticals have competition which has led to margin pressures over the past year.
CCME’s demographic is attractive despite some competitors criticizing the profile of an inter-city bus
passenger. They believe that passengers on inter-city buses have low income and are under educated.
While inter-city passengers are not as attractive as a pure urban demographic, the express bus market
demographic is still attractive with incomes above the China average. According to surveys conducted by
the CTR Market Research in July 2008, the audience of CCME’s network had the following overall
characteristics:
• the average household income is over RMB 5,800 per month and the average individual income is
over RMB 3,300 per month
• over 50% of the target audiences have received a diploma, college degree or higher education
• over 40% of the target audiences are professionals, managers, executives and business owners
• over 40% of the target audiences are frequent travelers that take inter-city express buses for more
than once a month
CCME’s advertising rates are substantially lower than intra-city buses and local
television
The cost per thousand (CPM) rates that CCME charges is just 13% of equivalent intra-city bus and 2% of
local television rates despite CCME’s large network and positive attributes. CCME’s large discount to
these alternative mediums provides flexibility to raise rates with no decline in demand for its inventory
which is currently experiencing close to 100% utilization.
Source: CCME proxy, VisionChina Median (NASD: VISN) investor presentation (note VISN average composed of
several cities not on this list)
New embedded advertising and other factors should drive strong 2010 growth
In the third quarter of 2009 CCME launched a new embedded advertising initiative that was the driver of a
large portion of the sequential growth in the quarter. Embedded advertising allows advertisers to be the
exclusive sponsor of a specific program in return for paying a higher CPM to CCME. The advertisers gain
additional exposure from announcements that the program is sponsored by that advertiser and a banner
add is placed on the side of the screen displaying the logo of the advertiser during the broadcast of the
programs.
1. Advertising rate increase of 10%: Raising rates by 10% is reasonable considering CCME’s low
CPM rates and expectations for a strong advertising market as evidenced by:
o The strong November CCTV 2010 advertising auctions
o Reports that VISN and Focus Media (NASD: FMCN) have raised their rates by 10% to
20% in January
o Changes in government regulations that reduce television advertising time which has
caused local television stations to increase their rates by 20% to 30% to make up for their
lost inventory
2. Substantial increase in advertising inventory: Management’s goal is to increase the number of
buses to 30,000 by the end of 2010 for a 50% year over year increase. This appears reasonable
given the rate of new bus growth since June of 2009. For conservatism we assume 28,000 buses by
the end of 2010 in our model.
3. New acquisitions: $77M of capital was raised in the last two weeks of January from the Starr
International preferred investment and the SPAC public warrant redemption. Management expects to
deploy CCME’s excess cash of $100M+ towards acquisitions in the near future. For conservatism we
do not include the contributions from acquisitions in our financial model.
We expect a further boost to credibility when CCME reports its 2009 results audited by newly hired
Deloitte and Touche.
Financial analysis
Our model is conservative with net income below the minimum targets set by the Starr investment
agreement and the performance share earn outs. Our forecast for 2010 and 2011 assumes 5% to 10%
rate increases and a decrease in CCME’s profit margins as we expect CCME to increase its SG&A
expenses and increase the concession fees it pays to the bus operators on its network.
We assume a large capital outlay in 2010 as management expands the network by 10,000 buses and
retrofits the existing buses and stations network to an automated process from a manual process. We
estimate the cost of this program to be $28.7 million ($1,000 per new bus + $100 retro fit of existing buses
+ $150K per new station) which can be funded from the current estimated net cash balance of $100M as
well as cash flow from operations.
There is upside to our 2010 forecast if accretive acquisitions are made and if operations perform better
than we have conservatively modeled. We believe that $60M+ net income (f.d. EPS of $1.52+) is
probable for 2010 based on current growth rates and margins and the high likelihood of accretive
acquisitions in the next few months. However, for conservatism we maintain our forecast until we gain
better clarity on these events occurring.
The only peer that has similar DSO’s is Lamar Advertising (NASD: LAMR).
The $28.23 valuation supports our $28.00 12 month target which is 15.0x FY11F ex-net cash P/E and
10.4x 2011 EV/EBITDA which are in line with the typical one year forward multiples of China and Western
out-of-home advertisers.
Revenue 63.0 95.1 142.7 191.0 236.8 281.8 326.9 372.7 417.4 463.3 509.6
Net change 37.2 32.1 47.6 48.3 45.8 45.0 45.1 45.8 44.7 45.9 46.3
Revenue growth 143.8% 50.9% 50.1% 33.9% 24.0% 19.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0%
EBITDA margin 60.3% 61.2% 54.0% 49.5% 48.0% 47.0% 46.0% 45.0% 44.0% 43.0% 42.0%
EBITDA 38.0 58.2 77.0 94.6 113.7 132.5 150.4 167.7 183.7 199.2 214.0
Less: D&A (2.9) (3.4) (5.2) (6.9) (8.9) (10.9) (12.9) (14.9) (16.9) (18.9) (20.9)
EBIT 35.1 54.9 71.8 87.7 104.8 121.6 137.5 152.8 166.8 180.3 193.1
Unlevered Taxes 25.0% (8.9) (14.3) (18.0) (21.9) (26.2) (30.4) (34.4) (38.2) (41.7) (45.1) (48.3)
After Tax Earnings 26.3 40.6 53.9 65.8 78.6 91.2 103.1 114.6 125.1 135.2 144.9
Add back: D&A 2.9 3.4 5.2 6.9 8.9 10.9 12.9 14.9 16.9 18.9 20.9
Less: Capex (4.2) (6.0) (28.7) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0)
Free cash flow 24.9 38.0 30.3 62.7 77.5 92.1 106.0 119.5 132.0 144.1 155.8
Share price target - true fully diluted 33.81 30.82 28.23 26.13 24.27
CCME - C hina MediaExpress 11.56 336 58 77 5.8 4.4 61% 54% 10.0 8.5
% discount to median -69% -84%
* Adj EV includes future estimated cash and stock commitments for acquisitions.
CCME trades at a substantial 69%+ discount to its China and Western peers on an EV/EBITDA and PE
basis. FMCN is the best Chinese comparable since its operations are the most stable. VISN and IDI are
currently working through operational issues while AMCN’s high 2010 multiple is in anticipation of a much
stronger 2011. A key point of differentiation is that CCME does not have any acquisition related earnout
payment commitments. This eliminates the risk of a drop in revenues after the earnout period expires as
occurred with VISN and FMCN.
CCME should trade at $24.90 to be in line with its peer median 2010 EV/EBITDA multiple. Thus our short
term $20.00 target is conservative.
Technical Analysis
Source: Bloomberg
CCME has traded in a band between $10.00 to $14.00 since November. CCME briefly traded above
$14.00 after the announcement of the Starr International $30M investment but subsequently traded lower
with the weaker Chinese markets and additional selling pressure due to the warrant redemptions that
ended at the end of January.
We expect CCME to trade towards $20.00 if CCME closes above $14.00 ideally with positive
fundamental news. A close below $10.00 is a bear signal.
Timeline Catalyst
March 16 Roth Capital annual OC Growth Stock Conference in Laguna Niguel, California
March 23 Q4 audited results and 2010 guidance
Anytime New acquisitions
Anytime New bus operators added to the network
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About SPAC Analytics: SPAC Analytics is a private research service that provides analysis of SPAC acquisitions and provides trade
recommendations to portfolio managers. It was found by Neil Danics in March 2007.
Neil Danics is recognized as a leading authority on SPACs and has been invited to present at several conferences and has recently been quoted in
the Wall Street Journal, Washington post, Reuters, Dow Jones and several other businesses publications.
Neil has developed an in-depth expertise analyzing SPACs having been a professional investor in SPACs for over five years and operating a
research service that has analyzed over 100 SPAC acquisitions. The analysis is complemented by utilizing information from his large network of
contacts in the investment community which includes hedge funds, investment banks and sales/trading desks that specialize in SPACs.