UK Energy Efficiency Trends Report

ENERGY EFFICIENCY
TRENDS VOL. 12
Essential insight for consumers and suppliers
of non-domestic energy efficiency in the UK
October 2015
ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 12

OCTOBER 2015
SUPPORTED BY:
ENDORSED BY:
EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in

partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance
L.P.2015.
No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly
displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of the joint partners. For
more information on terms of use, please contact ian@eevs.co.uk. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the
last page applies throughout.
Page 1 of 22

OCTOBER 2015
CONTENTS
SECTION 1.
INTRODUCTION __________________________________ 4
SECTION 2.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ____________________________ 5

2.1.
2.2.
SECTION 3.
SUPPLIER TRENDS ......................................................................................... 5

CONSUMER TRENDS...................................................................................... 6
SUPPLIER TRENDS _______________________________ 7

3.1.
3.2.
3.3.
3.4.
3.5.
SECTION 4.
THE ORDER BOOK .......................................................................................... 7

STAFF NUMBERS ............................................................................................ 8
SALE PRICES................................................................................................... 8
INDUSTRY RISK .............................................................................................. 9
GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS ................................................................ 10
CONSUMER TRENDS ____________________________ 11

4.1.
4.2.
4.3.
4.4.
4.5.
4.6.
4.7.
TECHNOLOGIES & MEASURES.................................................................... 11

PROPERTY TYPES ........................................................................................ 12
PROJECT COSTS .......................................................................................... 13
PROJECT FINANCE ....................................................................................... 14
FINANCIAL PAYBACK.................................................................................... 14
MEASUREMENT AND VERIFICATION .......................................................... 15
CONSUMERS NOT UNDERTAKING ENERGY EFFICIENCY ........................ 15
APPENDICES ____________________________________________________ 17
APPENDIX A:
METHODOLOGY ________________________________ 17
APPENDIX B:
SUPPLIER RESPONDENTS________________________ 18
APPENDIX C:
CONSUMER RESPONDENTS ______________________ 19
ABOUT US _______________________________________________________ 20
CONTACT US ____________________________________________________ 21
________________________________________________________________ 22

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OCTOBER 2015
TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1:
Figure 2:
Figure 3:
Figure 4:
Figure 5:
Figure 6:
Figure 7:
Figure 8:
Figure 9:
Figure 10:
Figure 11:
Figure 12:
Figure 13:
Figure 14:
Figure 15:
Figure 16:
Figure 17:
Figure 18:
Figure 19:
Figure 20:
Figure 21:
Figure 22:
Figure 23:
Figure 24:

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Market Monitor tracking industry confidence, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e) ............. 5

Consumers commissioning energy efficiency projects, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e) . 6
Trends in orders received from national customers, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e) ...... 7
Trends in orders received from overseas customers, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e) .... 7
Trends in the number of staff employed, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e) ....................... 8
Trends in sale prices achieved, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e) ..................................... 8
Key issues of concern to energy efficiency suppliers, Q2 2015 ......................... 9
Trends in key issues of concern, Q3 2012 Q2 2015 ....................................... 9
Trends in industry views on energy efficiency policy, Q3 2012 Q2 2015....... 10
Industry views on management of the wider economy, Q3 2012 Q2 2015 ... 10
Uptake of energy efficiency technologies, Q2 2015 vs four-quarter average.... 11
Trends in top technologies for consumer uptake, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e) ........ 12
Breakdown of commissioned projects by property type, Q2 2015 .................... 12
Trends of commissioned projects by property type, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e) ..... 13
Trends in capital costs, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e)................................................ 13
Trends in finance models, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e) ........................................... 14
Trends in expected payback periods, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e) .......................... 14
Trends in the use of good practice M&V, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e) ..................... 15
Consumer reasons for lack of efficiency uptake, Q2 2015 v four-quarter
average ........................................................................................................... 16
Who completed the survey? Q2 2015 .............................................................. 17
Breakdown of respondents by supplier type, Q2 2015 ..................................... 18
Supplier respondents organisation size (no. of employees), Q2 2015 ............. 18
Consumer respondents by sector, Q2 2015..................................................... 19
Consumer respondents organisation size (no. of employees), Q2 2015 ......... 19
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OCTOBER 2015
SECTION 1.
INTRODUCTION
Welcome to the latest edition of UK Energy Efficiency Trends, the leading source of market
information and insight for the energy efficiency sector.
In this edition (Vol. 12) which reflects industry views for the second quarter of 2015, supplier
confidence in the governments management of energy efficiency hit an all-time low. With the dust
barely settled on the UK general election, Amber Rudd, the incoming Energy and Climate Change
Minister announced a major change to the feed-in tariff for renewable technologies. As you will no
doubt have seen, this move was (and still is) the source of much consternation within the sector,
with many column inches lamenting the major job losses as a result.
It may be a harsh reality, but from a hard-nosed energy efficiency perspective this change is not
bad news. The financial support that has helped to drive renewables investments has, in part at
least, meant that energy efficiency has been the poorer, less appealing relation to a confident
renewables sector bolstered by generous financial support. Conversely, energy efficiency has
largely had to stand on its own two feet, without the same level of financial support. Whatever the
rights and wrongs of this policy shift, for the energy efficiency sector, it indicates a move towards
a new and level playing field in attracting green investment pounds.
If that wasnt enough, in the last month, HM Treasury also put out a consultation on changing
energy efficiency taxation, incentives and reporting (see
https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/consultation-reforming-the-business-energyefficiency-tax-landscape).
One would certainly expect the outcome of any Treasury-led policy change to be an increase in
the tax take and, as a result, greater commercial interest in saving increasingly expensive energy.
This is consistent with the turnaround in supplier confidence with respect to the governments
management of energy efficiency policy anticipated for Q3 2015.
A final point of note is the upcoming COP21 negotiations in Paris where expectations for reaching
a binding agreement have grown in recent months. If this does come to pass, and if the UK
Government does not intend to back renewable generation as a means of achieving any
agreement, political momentum could well be swinging in favour of energy efficiency.
Tom Rowlands-Rees
Bloomberg NEF

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Ian Jeffries
EEVS Insight
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OCTOBER 2015
SECTION 2.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The EEVS/Bloomberg Energy Efficiency Trends Survey (Vol.12) was conducted
between 12 August and 30 September 2015 and completed by 63 UK-based
respondents (41 consumer organisations and 22 suppliers). Their answers
related to the situation in the second quarter of 2015.
2.1.
SUPPLIER TRENDS
The market monitor which combines trends in supplier order books, staffing levels, sale
prices and government action fell for the second consecutive quarter in Q2 2015 to 51
points, but is expected to reach 115 in Q3.
The decline was driven primarily by a sharp fall in confidence in the governments
management of energy efficiency policy, with regulation and subsidy/policy support being two
of the top three issues of concern for suppliers of energy efficiency. However customer
demand remained the issue of primary concern cited by 27% of respondents.
Staffing levels was the only category with a rising confidence indictor in Q2, albeit marginal.
Confidence indicators for national orders, overseas orders and sale prices all fell, but
remained positive or neutral in the case of the latter. Confidence indicators are expected to
rise across all supplier categories in Q3.
Confidence with regards to the governments management of the wider economy also fell in
Q2, although the change on Q1 was less steep than that of energy efficiency policy.
Respondents citing ineffective management increased by three quarters, but still accounted
for just 36% compared to the 41% citing effective management.
Figure 1: Market Monitor tracking industry confidence, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e)

Positive sentiment
(max = 500 points)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
Q3
Negative sentiment
(min = -500 points)
2012
Q4
Q1
Q2
2013
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2014
Q2
Q3(e)
2015
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: based on weighted confidence indicators from Figures 3, 4, 5, 6, and 9.
Zero represents neutrality. 500/-500 indicate the maximum degrees of positive/negative sentiment possible.

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OCTOBER 2015
2.2.
CONSUMER TRENDS
Around 70% of consumers typically report commissioning energy efficiency projects each
quarter. As shown in Figure 2, this quarter saw a jump in project commissioning following an
extended downward trend in the market. At almost 80%, this quarter represents one of the
highest rates since the survey began.
High-efficiency lighting continues to outperform other individual technologies and is included

in 63% of energy efficiency projects. Taken together controls lighting controls (34%) and
general building controls (31%) offer some collective competition for the top spot. Solar PV
has also sustained its recent gains, with 22% reporting uptake this quarter perhaps in
response to the proposed changes in the feed-in tariffs.
Both public buildings (21%) and manufacturing sites (17%) overtook offices (15%) this
quarter as the principle property types to benefit from energy efficiency upgrades. This is the
first time that office property has not been in the top spot since the survey began.
The capital cost of respondents energy efficiency projects remains wide-ranging and volatile.
Overall however the long-term trend is towards sustained growth in project size. Starting at
around 60k in 2012, the current median project value is 110-120k despite a material
decrease in the volume of the very largest projects (500k+) in the last two quarters.
Around seven out of 10 energy efficiency projects continue to be financed using in-house
sources of capital. According to respondents, this trend looks set to continue in Q3 2015.
In Q2, around seven out of 10 respondents reported a financial payback requirement of less
than five years for their projects. This figure appears to represent a payback ceiling for the
majority of respondents.
Consumer use of performance measurement remains low, with around 70% of respondents
reporting that formal measurement and verification (M&V) was not used, or they were unsure
if it was used, in relation to their projects.
Figure 2: Consumers commissioning energy efficiency projects, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e)

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Historical
50%
Forecast
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q3
Q4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2014
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3(e)
2015
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: shows the proportion of respondents who have commissioned (or plan to
commission) projects in a given quarter.

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OCTOBER 2015
SECTION 3.
SUPPLIER TRENDS
This section of the report presents the survey findings for the supply-side of the industry
(organisations delivering a broad range of building-related energy efficiency technologies,
measures and services to the non-domestic market). The survey was completed by 22 UK-based
supplier organisations.
3.1.
THE ORDER BOOK

Figure 3: Trends in orders received from national customers, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e)
100%
300
90%
240
80%
180
70%
120
60%
60
50%
40%
-60
30%
-120
20%
-180
10%
-240
0%
Fall significantly
Fall slightly
Remain constant
Increase slightly
Increase significantly
Confidence Indicator
(RH axis)
-300
Q3
Q4
Q1
2012
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2013
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2014
Q2 Q3(e)
2015
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: the confidence indicator is an input to the market monitor in Figure 1. Zero
represents neutrality. 500/-500 indicate the maximum degrees of positive/negative sentiment possible.
The confidence indicator based on trends in national orders took a small dip in Q2 2015 as
respondents citing falling orders rose from 4% to 14%. The bulk of respondents however continued
to report rising order numbers (55%), with the remaining 32% citing stable volumes. Expectations
for Q3 show a peak in national order confidence as 86% of respondents anticipate higher volumes
compared to Q2 levels.
Figure 4: Trends in orders received from overseas customers, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e)
100%
300
90%
240
80%
180
70%
120
60%
60
50%
40%
-60
30%
-120
20%
-180
10%
-240
0%
Fall significantly
Fall slightly
Remain constant
Increase slightly
(RH axis)
-300
Q3
Q4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2014
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3(e)
2015

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OCTOBER 2015
Similarly, there was a drop in the confidence indicator relating to overseas orders as fewer
respondents cited increases, and respondents citing falling orders resurfaced, accounting for 14%
in Q2 2015.
3.2.
STAFF NUMBERS
Figure 5: Trends in the number of staff employed, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e)
100%
300
90%
240
80%
180
70%
120
60%
60
50%
40%
-60
30%
-120
20%
-180
10%
-240
0%
Fall significantly
Fall slightly
Remain constant
Increase slightly
(RH axis)
-300
Q3
Q4
Q1
2012
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2013
Q3
Q4
Q1
2014
Q2 Q3(e)
2015
Trends in the number of staff employed was the only supplier category with a rising confidence
indicator in Q2 2015. Respondents citing higher staff numbers (45%) almost equalled the
respondents with stable staffing levels (46%). Only 9% reported declines in Q2. Expectations for
Q3 show further optimism as 50% of respondents anticipate increases in their employee base.
3.3.
SALE PRICES
Figure 6: Trends in sale prices achieved, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e)
100%
300
90%
240
80%
180
Fall significantly
70%
120
Fall slightly
60%
60
Remain constant
50%
Increase slightly
40%
-60
30%
-120
20%
-180
(RH axis)
10%
-240
0%
-300
Q3
Q4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2014
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3(e)
2015
The confidence indicator for sale prices dropped for a second consecutive quarter to reach zero in
Q2. This resulted from fewer respondents achieving higher sale prices compared to Q1 and more
reporting declines. However the dominant respondent category remained those citing constant

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OCTOBER 2015
prices accounting for 73% as the long term trend of crudely stable prices continues in Q2, and
in Q3 expectations.
3.4.
INDUSTRY RISK
Figure 7: Key issues of concern to energy efficiency suppliers, Q2 2015
Other
9%
Raising
finance
9%
Customer
demand
27%
Customer demand
Regulation
Subsidy/policy uncertainty
Competition national 14%
Competition - national
Raising finance
Staff costs
Business tax
Regulation
23%
Subsidy/policy
uncertainty
18%
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: each supplier respondent was asked to select their primary issue of concern.
Therefore results sum to 100%.
In Q2 2015, customer demand remained the dominant category of concern for suppliers of energy
efficiency. This was followed by regulation (23%) and subsidy/policy uncertainty (18%) which both
surpassed national competition ranking second in the previous two quarters. Taken together the
former two account for 41%, which is unsurprising given the sharp drop in government confidence
seen in figures 9 and 10.
Figure 8: Trends in key issues of concern, Q3 2012 Q2 2015
100%
90%
80%
Other
70%
Business tax
60%
Staff costs
Raising finance
50%
Competition - national
40%
Subsidy/policy uncertainty
30%
Regulation
Customer demand
20%
10%
0%
Q3
Q4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2014
Q4
Q1
Q2
2015
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: each supplier respondent was asked to select their primary issue of concern,
therefore results sum to 100% in each period.

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OCTOBER 2015
3.5.
GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS
Figure 9: Trends in industry views on energy efficiency policy, Q3 2012 Q2 2015
100%
300
90%
240
80%
180
70%
120
60%
60
Neutral
50%
Effective
40%
-60
Very effective
30%
-120
20%
-180
(RH axis)
10%
-240
0%
Very ineffective
Ineffective
-300
Q3
Q4
Q1
2012
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2013
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014
Q1
Q2
2015
Supplier confidence with regards to the governments management of energy efficiency policy hit
an all-time low in Q2 with over 60% of respondents citing ineffective management. This also
represents the biggest quarter on quarter fall. In Q1, the confidence indicator broke out of the
negative zone for the first time reaching zero.
Figure 10: Industry views on management of the wider economy, Q3 2012 Q2 2015
100%
300
90%
240
80%
180
70%
120
Ineffective
60%
60
Neutral
50%
40%
-60
30%
-120
20%
-180
10%
-240
Very ineffective
Effective
Very effective
0%
(RH axis)
Energy Efficiency CI
(RH axis)
-300
Q3
Q4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2014
Q4
Q1
Q2
2015
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: CI = confidence indicator. The dotted line represents the CI from Figure 9 which
is overlaid here for comparison with views on the wider economy. Zero represents neutrality. 500/-500 indicate
the maximum degrees of positive/negative sentiment possible.
Similarly, confidence in the management of the wider economy fell in Q2, although the change on
Q1 was not as steep. Respondents citing ineffective management increased by three quarters, but
still accounted for just 36% compared to the 41% citing effective management. Neutral responses
returned to the Q4 2014 low of 23%. In Q1, we reported that the two government indicators
appeared to be converging towards a neutral position. The shift in industry views suggest that there
is little confidence in the outcome of policy changes to the renewables sector and the consultation
on energy efficiency taxation, incentives and reporting announced since then.

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OCTOBER 2015
SECTION 4.
CONSUMER TRENDS
This part of the report presents feedback from energy and environmental professionals within public
and private sector organisations (consumers), who are purchasing energy efficiency technologies
and services in relation to the built environment. The latest quarters survey was completed by 41
UK corporate consumers (of which 78% commissioned a project in the quarter).
4.1.
TECHNOLOGIES & MEASURES

Figure 11: Uptake of energy efficiency technologies, Q2 2015 vs four-quarter average
Lighting - High Efficiency
Lighting - Controls
Building Energy Management System (BEMS)
Solar - Photovoltaic
Behaviour Change
Boiler - High Efficiency Unit
Power Management - Voltage Optimisation, PFC
Motors and Drives
Compressed Air Equipment
Combined Heat and Power (CHP)
Cooling and Air Conditioning
Boiler - Optimisation
Smart Metering
M&T / Performance Management Software
Refrigeration - Optimisation
HVAC
Heat Exchangers
Energy Recovery
Boiler - Controls
Building Fabric - Glazing, Insulation, Materials
Solar - Thermal
Refrigeration - High Efficiency Unit
High Speed Hand Dryers
Refrigeration - Controls
Radiant and Warm Air Heaters
Heat Pumps - Water Source
Heat Pumps - Ground Source
Heat Pump - Air Source
Other
Q2 2015
4Q average
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: ranks technologies according to the proportion of consumers who commissioned
a project in each technology out of the overall number of consumers commissioning projects. PFC = power
factor correction.
Figure 11 ranks technologies in descending order based on the proportion of commissioned

projects that included that technology. As per the long-term trend, high-efficiency lighting continues
to outperform other technologies and is incorporated in over six out of 10 energy efficiency projects.
Taken together, lighting controls (34%) and general building controls (31%) would provide some
competition for the top spot.
Solar PV has sustained its high position this quarter against the longer term trend; it will be
interesting to see if this trend continues following the recently announced changes to the FiT
subsidy regime.
At the bottom end of the table we continue to see a group of technologies with little or no take up
over the spring quarter (Q2). As these are mainly heating-related measures, we could witness some
seasonal variation as we move into the colder months.

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OCTOBER 2015
Figure 12: Trends in top technologies for consumer uptake, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e)
100%
90%
80%
Lighting - High
Efficiency
70%
60%
50%
Lighting
Controls
40%
30%
Building Energy
Management System
(BEMS)
20%
10%
0%
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2012
Q3
Q4
Q1
2013
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2014
Q2
Q3(e)
2015
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: shows the proportion of respondents who commissioned a project in the
respective category out of the total number of respondents who commissioned a project.
Figure 12 shows purchase trends for the top three technologies, based on the most recent Q2 2015
research. Following on from figure 11 it shows that high-efficiency lighting, lighting controls and
building energy management systems (BEMS) represent the biggest sellers this quarter and
continue to enjoy a material proportion of non-domestic energy efficiency investment. And although
the forecast for the forthcoming quarter shows a levelling off in relation to BEMS and lighting
purchases, the long term trend suggests that these technologies will continue to occupy the topend of the table.
4.2.
PROPERTY TYPES
Figure 13: Breakdown of commissioned projects by property type, Q2 2015
Street / Highway
Lighting, 2%
Residential, 2%
Laboratory, 4%
Warehousing and
Distribution, 2%
Other
4%
Office
15%
Retail Supermarket
4%
Office
Office
Retail
Out of Town
4%
Public building
Public
building
School & University
School
Manufacturing & Industrial

Manufacturing
Retail - High
Street
8%
Public building
21%
Hospital
Hospital
Hospital
4%
Retail - Out of Town

Retail
Laboratory
Other
Leisure Centre
/ Sports, 2%
Industrial
2%
Leisure
Centre/ Sports
/ Sports
Leisure Centre
Manufacturing
17%
School
6%
University
6%
Source: EEVS, BNEF

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OCTOBER 2015
Figures 13 and 14 show that public buildings (21%) for the first time overtook offices (15%) as the
principal commercial property type to benefit from energy efficiency upgrades, with manufacturing
(17%) also overtaking offices. The steady growth from within manufacturing has continued over the
previous two quarters (see Figure 14 below) and judging by respondents forecasts for Q3, this trend
could continue.
Figure 14: Trends of commissioned projects by property type, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e)
100%
80%
Other
Retail
Hospital
60%
Leisure Centre / Sports

Manufacturing & Industrial
40%
School & University
Public building
Office
20%
0%
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2012
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2013
Q3
Q4
Q1
2014
Q2
Q3(e)
2015
Source: EEVS, BNEF
4.3.
PROJECT COSTS
Figure 15: Trends in capital costs, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e)
% projects in each band
Thousands
100%
200
80%
160
60%
120
Unknown
500K+
100-500K
50-100K
10-50K
40%
80
<10K
Zero
20%
40
0%
Median
(RH-axis)
Q3
Q4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2014
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3(e)
2015
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: the line shows the cost trend for energy efficiency projects over time based on
the estimated median.
There has been relatively high levels of volatility in the capital cost of energy efficiency projects
since 2012 (Figure 15). A smoothed trend line however would indicate that there has been a general
upward trajectory in project cost. Sustained growth in the 100-500k cost category has been a
material contributor to this upward trend, pushing the median project value from 60-70k in Q3
2012 to the current level of around 120k. Conversely, however, the chart also shows that the last

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OCTOBER 2015
two quarters have seen material decreases in the very largest projects (500k+). It will be
interesting to see if this short term trend continues into Q3.
4.4.
PROJECT FINANCE
Figure 16: Trends in finance models, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e)
100%
80%
Other
Unknown
60%
Supplier-arranged
Third party finance
40%
Combination
In-house
20%
0%
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2012
Q3
Q4
Q1
2013
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2014
Q2
Q3(e)
2015
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: the orange line shows the cost trend for energy efficiency projects over time
based on the estimated median.
Figure 16 shows little material change in financing arrangements this quarter. Although there was
a slight uptick in the use of in-house finance which is used to fund around seven out of 10 projects
this is a relatively low level figure in historical terms. Respondents forecasts for Q3 suggest that
this broad trend in financing is likely to continue.
4.5.
FINANCIAL PAYBACK
Figure 17: Trends in expected payback periods, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e)
% projects in each band
Number of years
100%
10
80%
Unknown
10 + years
60%
5-10 years
3-5 Years
1-3 years
40%
20%
0%
<1 year
Median
(RH-axis)
Q3
Q4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2014
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3(e)
2015
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: the line shows the expected payback trend for energy efficiency projects based
on the estimated median.
As forecast in the last edition, Figure 17 shows that the spike in very short payback projects reported
in Q1 2015 was short lived and in this most recent quarter no respondents reported undertaking

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OCTOBER 2015
projects with less than one year payback. Moreover, whilst over the last two quarters there has
been a steady rise in relatively short (1-3 year) payback projects around seven out of 10 projects
have paybacks of less than five years. This appears to be the payback ceiling for the majority of
respondents, with the median figure around the three-four year mark. Longer-term payback projects
remain confined to a minority, although the respondent forecast for the next quarter suggests that
longer payback projects are in the pipeline.
4.6.
MEASUREMENT AND VERIFICATION

Figure 18: Trends in the use of good practice M&V, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e)
100%
80%
60%
No
Unknown
Yes
40%
20%
0%
Q3
Q4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014
Q1
Q2
Q3(e)
2015
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: M&V = measurement & verification
Figure 18 shows that performance measurement (and verification of that measurement) is still
largely unused within the sector, with around seven out of 10 respondents reporting that it was not
used, or they were unsure if it was used, in relation to their project(s). The chart shows that this is
a sustained long term trend within the sector a key implication being that financial savings
performance (and value for money) of energy efficiency investments can only be demonstrated by
around two out of 10 projects.
4.7.
CONSUMERS NOT UNDERTAKING ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Figure 19 below shows some change in respondent feedback in relation to the reasons for not
investing in energy efficiency. Most notably and contrary to the longer term trend future
projects are planned has dipped significantly this quarter for the first time and this may be of
concern to the supply-side of the industry. Whilst it is difficult to draw any meaningful conclusions
from this single data point (which could be a short-term blip), it could perhaps reflect increasing
levels of uncertainty following the Governments recent changes in relation to the renewables
sector, as well as expectation for new policy support for energy efficiency (HM Treasury is
currently consulting on changes to energy efficiency taxation, incentives and reporting). The
organisations may also be waiting on the collated results of ESOS audits, which for many will not
yet have been completed.
More positively, respondents universally highlighted that within the UKs wider economy, any
perceived negative impacts on core operations, and a lack of trust in the industry were not
barriers to investment in energy efficiency.

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OCTOBER 2015
Figure 19: Consumer reasons for lack of efficiency uptake, Q2 2015 v four-quarter average
Energy efficiency has already been undertaken
Lack of resource
Lack of affordable finance
Uncertainty over the financial benefits / business case
Higher priorities elsewhere
Subsidy uncertainty
Q2 2015 (industry neutral)
Preference for renewable energy (e.g. solar)
Q2 2015 (negative impact)

Senior management not bought in
4Q average
Future projects are planned
Negative impact on core operations

Wider macro-economic uncertainty
Buildings are landlord-owned, so little upside
Lack of trust in the industry
Other
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: Respondents not commissioning projects may have cited multiple reasons. The
chart shows the proportion of respondents in each category out of overall respondents, not commissioning
projects. Results therefore do not sum to 100.

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OCTOBER 2015
APPENDICES
Appendix A:
Methodology
The EEVS/Bloomberg Energy Efficiency Trends Survey (Vol.12) was conducted between 12
August and 30 September 2015 and completed by 63 UK-based respondents (41 consumer
organisations and 22 suppliers).
This is the 12th in a series of reports showing industry trends in non-residential energy efficiency.
Initially the report covered a broad range of European countries, but since Volume 8, it has
presented UK-based results only, as these consistently accounted for the bulk of data received.
In focusing the report on a single country with better data coverage, we were able to present
cleaner, more robust results. This coincided with a revamp of the analysis which among other
modifications included the introduction of a set of time series charts. This is the fourth iteration of
the revamped report.
Figure 20: Who completed the survey? Q2 2015
Supplier
35%
Consumer
65%
Source: EEVS, BNEF
Figure 20 shows the breakdown of respondents according to type. This split is consistent with
prior reports as the survey has typically seen between 60% and 80% of responses coming from
consumer organisations.

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OCTOBER 2015
Appendix B:
Supplier respondents
Figure 21: Breakdown of respondents by supplier type, Q2 2015

HVAC
4%
Finance
9%
Consultancy services
ESCO
BMS / controls
14%
Consultancy services
41%
Lighting
BMS / controls
Finance
HVAC
Lighting
14%
Motors and drives

ESCO
18%
Source: EEVS, BNEF
Figure 21 shows that consultancy services continue to represent the bulk of supplier respondents
accounting for 41% in Q2 2015. This was followed by ESCOs (18%), Lighting (14%), Building
Management Systems and controls (14%), Finance (9%) and HVAC (4%).
Figure 22: Supplier respondents organisation size (no. of employees), Q2 2015
9%
18%
14%
Less than 10
10-50
51-250
5%
251-500
501-1000
More than 1000
18%
36%
Source: EEVS, BNEF
Small and medium-sized organisations employing less than 250 staff continue to dominate supplier
responses thanks mainly to the 10-50 category which represents 36% of overall responses. The
remaining categories in this group accounted for 18% each, followed by companies with 501-1000
staff accounting for 14%.

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OCTOBER 2015
Appendix C:
Consumer respondents
Figure 23: Consumer respondents by sector, Q2 2015

Construction &
Engineering
2%
Transportation
2%
Other
2%
Chemicals
5%
Local or Regional
Authority
20%
Public Sector &

Institutional
Health
7%
Manufacturing
22%
Commercial
Industrial
School/College
7%
Leisure and Recreation

2%
Food and
Drink
Services &
5%
Storage
7%
Retail &
Wholesale
10%
Other
University
5%
Other
2%
Source: EEVS, BNEF
There continues to be broad representation across both the private and public sectors by consumer
respondents. Those falling in the manufacturing category accounted for the largest share (22%) in
Q2 2015, surpassing local authorities which followed with 20% of consumer responses.
Figure 24: Consumer respondents organisation size (no. of employees), Q2 2015
7%
20%
Less than 50
50 - 250
49%
251-500
501-1000
More than 1000
12%
12%
Source: EEVS, BNEF
Figure 24 shows that the dominant response category continues to be large organisations of more
than 1,000 employees. In Q2, consumer organisations of this size accounted for 49% of responses.
This was followed by those in the 50250 employee band which accounted for 20% in Q2 2015.

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OCTOBER 2015
ABOUT US
_______________________________________________________
About EEVS
EEVS is the UKs leading provider of performance assurance, analysis and information services in relation
to energy efficiency. Our performance assurance services include working with clients to devise and develop
performance management systems and strategies; procurement policies and tender evaluations; due
diligence on performance contracts and guarantees; performance and financial risk analysis .
Alongside this, our established team of energy analysts provide high quality, independent Measurement and Verification (M&V) services
for all sizes and types of energy saving projects. Since 2011 we have evaluated the savings performance of over 400 schemes to the
global good practice standard, IPMVP. Our trusted analysis helps suppliers to credibly prove their projects or technologys saving
performance, whilst providing customers with much-needed certainty around their investments return and value for money.
EEVS wider market information and research services in particular the Energy Efficiency Trends publications aim to improve the
attractiveness, transparency and investability of the energy efficiency market through the provision of reliable market-level performance
and trend information. For further details about EEVS and our services, please visit www.eevs.co.uk
About Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) is the definitive source of insight, data and news on the
transformation of the energy sector. BNEF has staff of more than 200, based in London, New York,
Beijing, Cape Town, Hong Kong, Singapore, Munich, New Delhi, San Francisco, So Paulo, Sydney,
Tokyo, Washington D.C., and Zurich.
BNEF Insight Services provide financial, economic and policy analysis in the following industries and markets: wind, solar,
bioenergy, geothermal, hydro & marine, gas, nuclear, carbon capture and storage, energy efficiency, digital energy, energy
storage, advanced transportation, carbon markets, REC markets, power markets and water. BNEFs Industry Intelligence Service
provides access to the worlds most comprehensive database of assets, investments, companies and equipment in the same
sectors. The BNEF News Service is the leading global news service focusing on finance, policy and economics for the same
sectors. The group also undertakes custom research on behalf of clients and runs senior-level networking events, including the
annual BNEF Summit, the premier event on the future of the energy industry.
For more information please visit about.bnef.com

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OCTOBER 2015
CONTACT US
EEVS:
Ian Jeffries
ian@eevs.co.uk
+44 (0) 77 7093 9290
EEVS Insight Ltd

The Euston Office
40 Melton Street
London
NW1 2FD
BNEF:
Tom Rowlands-Rees
trowlandsree@bloomberg.net
+44 (0) 20 3525 4144
Bloomberg New Energy Finance

City Gate House,
39-45 Finsbury Square
London
EC2A 1PQ
Nicole Aspinall
naspinall@bloomberg.net
+44 (0) 20 3525 4653
Copyright:

L.P.2015.
EEVS insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnership with Bloomberg New Energy Finance
(Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2015). No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an
electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without
the prior written consent of the joint partners.
For more information on terms of use, please contact ian@eevs.co.uk.
Page
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OCTOBER 2015

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Energy Efficiency Trends Vol. 12

October 2015
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ENERGY EFFICIENCY

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 12

EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 12

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ____________________________ 5

SUPPLIER TRENDS ......................................................................................... 5

SUPPLIER TRENDS _______________________________ 7

THE ORDER BOOK .......................................................................................... 7

CONSUMER TRENDS ____________________________ 11

TECHNOLOGIES & MEASURES.................................................................... 11

CONSUMER RESPONDENTS ______________________ 19

EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 12

EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in

Market Monitor tracking industry confidence, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e) ............. 5

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 12

EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 12

Figure 1: Market Monitor tracking industry confidence, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e)

EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 12

High-efficiency lighting continues to outperform other individual technologies and is included

Figure 2: Consumers commissioning energy efficiency projects, Q3 2012 Q3 2015(e)

EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 12

THE ORDER BOOK

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ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 12

EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 12

EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 12

EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 12

TECHNOLOGIES & MEASURES

Figure 11 ranks technologies in descending order based on the proportion of commissioned

EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 12

Manufacturing & Industrial

Retail - Out of Town

Source: EEVS, BNEF

EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 12

Leisure Centre / Sports

School & University

Source: EEVS, BNEF

EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 12

EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 12

MEASUREMENT AND VERIFICATION

Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: M&V = measurement & verification

CONSUMERS NOT UNDERTAKING ENERGY EFFICIENCY

EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 12

Preference for renewable energy (e.g. solar)

Q2 2015 (negative impact)

Future projects are planned

Negative impact on core operations

EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 12

Source: EEVS, BNEF

EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in