11th National Convention on Statistics (NCS)

EDSA Shangri-La Hotel

October 4-5, 2010

IMPROVISED NATIONAL FRAMEWORK ON HOUSING NEEDS AND HOUSING

NEEDS ESTIMATION

by
Nelia R. Marquez, Gervacio G. Selda, Jr., Mary Ann C. Magtulis, Plenee Grace J.
Castillo, and Eleanore V. Ramos

For additional information, please contact:

Authors name
Designation
Affiliation
Address
Tel. no.
E-mail

Nelia R. Marquez, Gervacio G. Selda, Jr., Mary Ann C. Magtulis, Plenee

Grace J. Castillo, and Eleanore V. Ramos
Consultant, Executive Director, Statistician V/Chief (RITD), Statistician
V/Chief (training Division), Statistician III
Statistical Research and Training Center
J & S Building, 104 Kalayaan Avenue, Diliman, Quezon City
+632-9297543 / +632-4260620 / +632-4361426
neliarm2003@yahoo.com, ggseldajr@srtc.gov.ph, mcmagtulis@srtc.gov.ph,
pjcastillo@srtc.gov.ph, evramos@srtc.gov.ph

IMPROVED NATIONAL FRAMEWORK ON HOUSING NEEDS AND

HOUSING NEEDS ESTIMATION
by
Nelia R. Marquez, Gervacio G. Selda Jr., Mary Ann C. Magtulis,
Plenee Grace J. Castillo, Eleanore V. Ramos1

ABSTRACT
The efforts of government and the private sector to address the challenges of
the growing housing need in the country depend largely on the reliability of existing
housing statistics combined with having the appropriate framework that will guide the
estimation of current and future housing needs. The Statistical Research and Training
Center (SRTC), in collaboration with Housing and Urban Development and Coordinating
Council (HUDCC), under the project Development of Shelter Monitoring Information
System recommended an improved housing needs framework which does not only
focus on backlog, per se, but also on all components of Housing Needs that go into its
estimation process and target setting. The concepts for estimating housing needs in the
revised framework are based on principles prescribed by the United Nations (UN). The
proposed framework has two dimensions: (i) construction of housing units; and (ii)
housing support and services, to differentiate the physical aspect of the housing
industry and the social aspect of housing to improve the environment for healthy living.
The Housing Support and Services consists of Tenure Security, Site Development,
Slum Upgrading, House repair and Housing Finance. The first dimension and main
focus of estimation, Construction of housing units, consists of Accumulated or current
needs and Recurrent or future needs, as two main components. Accumulated needs
comprise the provision of conventional housing units for households occupying living
quarters of an unacceptable type and those doubled-up with other households living in
acceptable housing units. Recurrent or future needs comprise housing needs expected
to arise during the Plan period covered by the estimates which include housing units for
(a) new households formed, and (b) households whose housing units were lost due to
obsolescence, floods, fire, urban renewal/slum clearance, etc. These items were
estimated by utilizing data from the 1990 and Censuses of Population and Housing, and
2007 Population Census. The estimated housing needs from 2007-2010 is 3.6 million
units. The proposed national framework on housing needs is recommended to be the
basis for coming up with estimates on stock and demands for housing as well as target
setting for planning and decision-making initiatives on decent shelters, with acceptable
conditions, that Filipinos deserve to have.

KEY WORDS AND PHRASES: housing need, housing framework, housing backlog
I.

INTRODUCTION/RATIONALE

In order to ensure security of shelter for the Filipino family and provide affordable and
decent housing, especially for the poor, the 2005-2010 Medium-Term Philippine Development
Plan (MTPDP) cites three (3) key challenges for the housing construction sector. These
challenges are: (i) meeting the rapidly growing housing need; (ii) expanding participation of
private sector in socialized housing financing and construction; and (iii) strengthening capacity
of housing institutions.

Project Consultant, SRTC Executive Director, Statistician V and Chief, Research and Information Technology Division, Statistician
V and Chief, Training Division, and Statistician III. Statistical Research and Training Center, 104 Kalayaan Avenue, Diliman,
Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines; e-mail: mcmagtulis@srtc.gov.ph

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Government and private sector can conceive of well-thought strategies and convergent
action plan in addressing these challenges. Its success, however, largely depends on the
reliability of existing housing statistics and appropriateness of framework to guide estimation
procedure.
The Statistical Research and Training Center (SRTC), as the research and training arm
of the Philippine Statistical System, in collaboration with Housing and Urban Development and
Coordinating Council (HUDCC), conducted a research project entitled Housing Backlog Study
under the Development of Shelter Monitoring Information System (DSMIS). Two of the
expected outputs in this project are: (i) review of the framework on housing needs vis--vis
backlog and (ii) make recommendations of an alternative framework of housing needs. From the
recommended framework, better estimate of housing needs vis--vis backlog is generated.
The series of consultations involving participation of inter-agencies, both from the
government and private sectors, resulted in an Improved Framework of Housing Needs. It
should be emphasized that this study is not limited to the backlog as a component of the
Housing Needs but includes all other components that go into the estimation process of housing
needs and target setting.
The review on the framework on Housing Backlog was done within the purview of the
different MTPDPs. In particular, review different estimates on housing needs, backlogs, targets
and accomplishments involving several planning periods was conducted.
In the plan periods 1987-1992 and 1993-1998, the housing need or the deficiency in
housing is composed of 1) Future needs of new households due to increase in population or
household attributed to new formation and in-migration, and replacement of existing stock
attributed to age and deterioration; and 2) Backlog consists of doubled-up households,
substandard dwelling units, required slum upgrading and homeless. In the plan periods 19992004 and 2005-2010, the frameworks on housing need were not adequately defined. For 20052010 in particular, the composition of the housing need of Housing Backlog, Substandard
(Upgrading) and New Households. Housing Backlog is composed of doubled-up housing,
replacement and/or Informal Settlers and Homeless. All the terms used in the estimation of
housing need were not defined in the Plan document.
For any housing framework, it has to be well-defined and comprehensive as it will be the
basis for preparing more accurate estimates for housing targets not only for socialized housing
but also for other stakeholders in the housing sector.
II.

REVISITING THE UNITED NATIONS COMPONENT METHOD OF ESTIMATING

HOUSING NEEDS

Concept of Housing Need

The United Nations defines housing needs as the number of conventional dwellings or
other suitable living quarters that need to be constructed or repaired in order to bring housing
conditions, as of a particular point in time, up to nationally adopted standards, plus the number
that need to be constructed, repaired and/or maintained to ensure that housing conditions
remain at the standard level over a stated period of time.

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Housing need and housing requirements have the same meaning and are used
interchangeably throughout the UN manual.
UN has broadly classified the principal components of housing needs in developing
countries to three major categories,2 namely:
1.

2.

3.

Accumulated needs (housing needs which exist at the beginning of the period covered by
the estimates)
a.
Number of dwellings or other acceptable living quarters* required for:
(i)
Households without shelter (homeless)
(ii)
Households occupying living quarters of an unacceptable type
(iii) Households involuntarily doubled-up with other households in living quarters of
an acceptable type
(iv) Reduction in levels of density (persons per room ratio or area per person) in
acceptable living quarters to a desired level
b.
Number of living quarters which are of an acceptable type but in need of repair or
replacement
Recurrent or future needs (needs expected to arise during the period covered by the
estimates)
a.
Number of dwellings or other acceptable living quarters required for:
(i)
Projected increase in the number of households during the period covered by
the estimates
(ii)
Replacement of living quarters of an acceptable type which will be lost from
the inventory during the period covered by the estimates
b.
Number of living quarters that will require maintenance and repairs during the period
covered by the estimates.
Allowance in the estimates for vacant dwellings

It is recognized that not all the above components be taken into account by all
developing countries in estimating housing needs. The components of the future needs are
universally applicable since they represent the housing required for population growth,
replacement of housing as it reaches the end of its useful life and recurrent repairs and
maintenance required to keep the housing stock up to established standards. However, the
components to be considered in estimating accumulated needs will vary according to the
housing conditions in the country concerned.
Accumulated needs which is also current needs, include not only accumulated
backlogs such as housing needs of doubled-up households and the homeless, those living in
unacceptable type of housing but also include replacement of dilapidated housing units and
repair of housing units at the start of the plan period. Recurrent or future needs is simply
known as the future needs due to increase in the number of households and replacement of
housing units that will be lost during the inventory period. The third major category in the UN
Component Method is allowance in the estimates for vacant buildings, not usually included in
the estimation of housing needs in the country.
In setting up of targets, UN emphasized that it is more important to target the immediate
replacements of inventory losses as these happen, because not doing so will contribute to
serious shortage of housing and lead to deterioration of the housing stock. On the rate of
replacement, the UN did not specify any value and allowed countries to decide. However, 100
2

Source: United Nations, Methods of Estimating Housing Needs, Studies in Methods Series F. No. 12, New York, 1967.

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years was suggested as the life of houses in European countries. Also, provision for new
housing unit for doubled-up households may not be as urgent as those housing units required to
replace dilapidated and unacceptable units, and provide housing for newly formed households.
A comparison is made between and among framework as shown in UN Component
Method and those of NSO Operationalization3 and HUDCCs Guidelines for the Preparation of
Local Shelter Plans.4 There is a significant difference in the composition. Below is the summary:
UN Component

HUDCC
Guidelines

Difference

Housing Need

Housing Need

Need for New Units

1. Accumulated
Needs:

1. Backlog

1. Backlog:

Terminology

1.1 Doubled-up
Households in
acceptable
dwelling units

1.1 Doubled-up
families living in
both acceptable
& unacceptable
dwelling units

1.1 Doubled-up
HHs living in
both acceptable
& unacceptable
dwelling units

- UN includes only
those involuntary
doubled-up and
potential households
living in acceptable
dwelling units

1.2 Replace
Housing units of
unacceptable type
(salvaged materials)

1.2

1.2

Displaced Units

- HUDCC refers HUs in

danger areas while UN
and NSO refer to HUs
of unacceptable
construction materials.
HUDCC is much more
limited in scope.

1.3 Households
without shelter

No mention

1.3

Homeless

- Same definition of
homeless with UN

1.4 HUs of
acceptable type but
in need of repair or
replacement

No mention

No item for
replacement of
dilapidated
acceptable housing
units.

2. Recurrent or
future needs

2. Future Need

2. Future Population
growth

2.1

2.1

2.1

HUs for
increase in HHs

2.2 Replace HUs

due to inventory loss,
obsolescence, etc.
but did not
recommend any rate.

NSO
Operationalization

Unacceptable
dwellings

New HHs

2.2 Replacement of
inventory losses.
NSO used in its
housing projection
2% for HUs made of
concrete, 3.3% made
of mixed materials,
5% for light
materials.

- HUDCC treats this as

needing upgrading but
did not consider
replacement of
dilapidated structures at
the start of Plan period.

HUs for increase - No difference

in HHs

No provision in the
guidelines

- HUDCC provided
replacement in Plan
period 1987-1992 but
did not provide for
inventory loss of
housing stock in
succeeding Plan
periods.

The National Census and Statistics Office (NCSO now NSO) in 1979 prepared a Housing Needs in the Philippines 1970-2000
projections published as Monograph No. 18 of a UNFPA-NCSO Population Research Project.
Formulated as reference of Local Government Units (LGUs) in the preparation of a local shelter plan.

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III.

RECOMMENDED FRAMEWORK ON HOUSING NEEDS

Since the UN Component Method of Estimating Housing Needs considered not only on
backlog component but also the needs of projected households and replacement allowance due
to inventory losses, it is recommended that the PSS look into the evaluation made using this UN
Component Method which has been the product of exhaustive research contributed not only by
international housing experts but UN-member countries as well. The proposed framework for
housing need is an adaptation of the UN Component method to suit local conditions. It has two
dimensions: (i) construction of housing units; and (ii) housing support and services. The
rationale for this proposal is to identify the physical aspect of the housing industry and the
social aspect of housing to improve the environment for healthy living. Both are addressed by
governments housing assistance program which can be in a form of cash vs. loan, house and
lot, lot only, temporary shelters, community improvement, etc.
The physical aspect of housing needs would be the construction of acceptable dwellings
as living quarters, therefore, the unit of reporting the housing need would be in terms of housing
units constructed, regardless of the type of building. This is composed of:
1.

Accumulated or current needs - is defined as housing needs that exist at the beginning
of the Plan Period covered by the estimate, and include the following components:
a. Number of conventional Housing Units (HUs) required to provide for:

Households without shelter (homeless)

Households occupying living quarters of an unacceptable type, e.g., barongbarong, houses made of makeshift or salvaged materials, and those residing
in non-conventional dwellings.

Households that are doubled-up with other households in acceptable dwelling

units with the assumption that all those doubled-up households are in need of
separate housing accommodation.

b. Number of conventional housing units which are dilapidated or condemned to be

replaced.
2.

Recurrent or Future needs housing needs expected to arise during the Plan Period
covered by the estimates, it could be annual, medium term, or long term.
a.
Number of housing units required to provide to new households covered by the
Plan Period.
b.
Replacement of housing units of acceptable type that were lost during the period
covered by the estimates. Losses include housing units lost due to obsolescence,
floods, fire, urban renewal/slum clearance, etc. This can be done by age and
construction materials based on trends observed between censuses.

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The following chart will show the different components that go into the estimation of
housing construction:
Housing Needs: Construction of Housing Units
Housing Needs

Accumulated or Current
Housing Needs

Number of Conventional
Housing Units provided
for:
1. Homeless
2. Households in
unacceptable type
3. Doubled-up
households in
acceptable type
Replacement of
Dilapidated/Condemned
Conventional Housing
Units

Recurrent/Future
Housing Needs

Number of Housing
Units for New
Households

Number of Housing
Units to Replace
Inventory Losses

The UN components pertaining to Reduction in levels of density in acceptable living

quarters to a desired level and allowance for vacant dwellings are not considered in the
proposal. There is no need to consider the reduction of density to a desired level, because all
doubled-up households have already been considered, therefore, the overcrowding due to
doubling-up may have been eased. In the allowance for vacant dwellings, it was observed
that in all census years 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 there are always vacant housing units
counted. Therefore, estimates would be limited to occupied dwellings or housing units.
For the Housing Support and Services, this is a new attempt to separate the social
aspects of housing in the estimate of housing needs. The proposed framework which may be
looked into more closely involves Tenure Security, Housing Finance, Site Development, Slum
Upgrading and House Repair.

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Housing Support and Services

Housing
Needs

Tenure
Security

Housing
Finance

Site
Developmen

Slum
Upgrading

House
Repair

For Tenure Security, the Community-based Management System (CBMS) list of cities
and municipalities with a list of informal settlers may be used as benchmark data in the absence
of a more complete list of areas where informal settlers are located.
Housing Finance is measured by the number of residential unit construction financed by
the government and loan availment/releases or the volume of mortgage take-outs or purchases.
Financing institution such as Housing Guaranty Corporation (HGC), Home Development
Mortgage Fund (HDMF), Social Security System (SSS) and Government Service Insurance
System (GSIS) have data on this.
For Site Development, National Housing Authority (NHA) may have a list of Community
Mortgage Projects (CMPs) for Metro Manila and the local government may have also some list
to provide for benchmark data. In the Urban Development and Housing Act (UDHA)
implementation, the local government units (LGUs) are mandated to implement Section 7 which
requires the conduct of an inventory of all lands and improvements within their localities in
coordination with the Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB) and to update this
inventory every three years and furnish the HUDCC a copy including updates. Section 8
provides for the identification of sites for socialized housing and the LGUs in coordination with
NHA, HLURB, National Mapping Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA), and the Land
Management Bureau (LMB) shall identify lands for socialized housing and resettlement areas,
taking into consideration the degree of availability of basic services and facilities, their
accessibility and proximity to job sites and other economic opportunities, and the actual number
of registered beneficiaries. If all these areas are identified, then these can be programmed for
implementation so that Housing Support and Services can be planned adequately to realize the
provisions of the socialized housing law.
For Slum Upgrading, Clearance, the benchmark data may come from the inventory of
areas identified by the local governments in accordance with the provisions of UDHA although
the NHA and HLURB may have its own listing of Area for Priority Development (APDs) as a
start up data for this framework.
In the UN component method, failure to meet housing requirements as they occur has
resulted in a mounting backlog of housing needs the magnitude of which equals or even

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exceeds the existing supply of housing in some countries. Therefore, housing backlog is the
difference of Housing Needs and Accomplishment at time (t). This can be decomposed into two
components, that is, the backlog is the sum of:
a.
b.

The difference between housing needs and targets, and

The difference between targets and accomplishments.

Housing Backlog is simply the unmet housing needs. Targets and Accomplishments herein
are those goal statements and those implemented plans and programs in previous year by
concerted efforts of the government and private sectors. This is true for both construction of
units and housing support and services. To illustrate:

HOUSING NEEDS

TARGET

ACCOMPLISHME
NT

Backlog

IV.

OPERATIONALIZATION OF HOUSING NEEDS FRAMEWORK

The estimation made use of 2000 Census of Population and Housing results as
benchmark data for extrapolating estimates of housing needs from year 2007 onwards while
2007 Census of Population (2007 POPCEN) which has reported a preliminary release on the
total count of population was used as the jump-off point in projecting households at the regional
level.
The step by step procedure in the estimation of housing needs for 2000 is enumerated
below:
1. The 2000 CPH complete census file (100% coverage) was re-tabulated into the following
tables with the purpose of identifying the year built of housing units, the identification of
selected indicators as input to the identification of unacceptable structures and households
and the actual number of households residing in these housing units.
Table 1. Type of Construction Materials of Housing Units (HUs) by Year built, 2000 CPH
Table 2. Type of Construction Materials by Selected Indicators of HUs, 2000 CPH

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Table 3. Number of Households by Type of Construction Materials of HUs by Selected

Indicators, 2000 CPH
Prior to the identification of type of construction materials, all housing units were
reclassified into the construction materials category for roof and walls: 1) Strong materials; 2)
Light materials; 3) Salvaged/makeshift materials; 4) Mixed but predominantly strong
materials; 5) Mixed but predominantly light materials; and 6) Mixed but predominantly
salvaged materials. The reclassification was done in order to describe the housing unit
based on the combination of the construction materials of the walls and roof. This
classification can be used to tabulate the characteristics of the housing units in accordance
with selected indicators, using the type of construction materials as the common variable in
these tabulations.
2. Four selected indicators are identified from the census file in the following hierarchical
manner:
Indicator No. 1 - Homeless - the housing units were identified by their codes in the type of
building under the Others category. The housing units under this category are those living
quarters found during the census that were not intended for human habitation like those
staying under the bridge, in caves, sleeping in kariton5, or those staying in abandoned buses,
in agricultural/industrial/ commercial structures, etc.
Indicator No. 2 Dilapidated/condemned - the structures were identified by looking at the
Type of Repair categories under Dilapidated and condemned. These structures are to be
replaced during the planning period.
Indicator No. 3 - Informal settlers these were identified through the tenure status of the lot
occupied by the housing unit. All those found to be under tenure status of rent-free lot
without consent of the owner are identified as belonging to the informal settlers.
Indicator No. 4 - Marginal housing units This include those classified under Others HUs
category (that is, neither falling under any of the above indicators) and at the same time,
classified in the type of construction materials used under the makeshift/salvage materials
and mixed but predominantly makeshift/salvaged materials categories.
In the tabulation process, when a housing unit is classified in any of these indicators,
then they are no longer counted anywhere else. This makes the housing unit count mutually
exclusive from the rest as far as the selected indicators are concerned. The rest of the
housing units are classified under Other HUs, which is a residual estimate from the total
housing units. In the report, number of informal settlers and households living in marginal
housing are combined as one of those under unacceptable housing units.
3. Based on the provincial tabulations of the three tables, regional totals were aggregated by
the selected indicators to obtain national totals.
4. The results of Table 3 (Number of households) minus the results in Table 2 (Number
Housing Units) in the special tabulation by construction materials yielded the doubled-up
households also classified by construction materials.
5. Replacement rate was generated based on the cohort population of buildings anchored on
the year the housing unit was constructed.. As a limitation of the study, the percentage
losses of housing units by type of construction materials cannot as yet be generated except
for NCR which this study has adopted as the percentage rate of replacement of acceptable
5

Sleeping in cariton is not anymore considered as part of Homeless in succeeding censuses.

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structures in estimating future housing needs. The average loss annually in Metro Manila is
1.33%.
6. Summary of the consolidated results of the selected indicators was generated showing the
total number of housing units. A table showing regional summary was also obtained. The
purpose of the table showing the type of construction materials is to identify which structures
are unacceptable based on minimum standard of quality. The type of construction materials
is used as the minimum standard of quality in the meantime that other quality measures, like
number of persons per room or area occupied per person, are not yet considered.
7. After the national estimates were done using the aggregated tabulations from the provincial
and regional levels, the detailed components can be computed for each region. In case the
regional totals do not tally with the basic table of construction materials by the selected
housing indicators, the total of the table on construction materials should prevail.
Translation of estimates from May 1, 2000 to July 1, 2000
The tabulations generated above were sourced from the result of the CPH as of May 1,
2000. The initial population total used by the TWG on Population Projection of NSCB as
benchmark for projecting the population from 2000 up to 2010 was 76,946,500 as of July 1,
2000. The SRTC Research Team adopted this total to estimate for the housing needs as of
July 1, 2000 for comparison with future estimates based on the August 1, 2007 Census of
Population also translated into the population as of July 1, 2007 so that it would be easy to
compare these estimates with the population projection using the medium growth assumption.
8. Estimates of the number of households and number of housing units as of July 1, 2000 were
obtained by applying the percentage share of tabulations above to population projection as
of July 1, 2000, that is, 76,946,500. Applying the same procedure to regional figures is done
to get the regional estimates.
Estimation of Housing Needs as of July 1, 2000 using the 2007 Census of Population
regional configuration of provinces
9. The resulting July 1, 2000 estimates are reconfigured using regional configuration of the
Census of Population 2007 due to changes in regional, provincial or city/municipal
composition. The reason for decomposing the 2000 CPH into 2007 configuration is to
generate new indicators to use in the determination of the number of households in the 2007
POPCEN based on the characteristics of the population/housing in 2000. In addition,
housing needs on the basis of the new configuration of the regions will also be estimated as
basis in evaluating the trend of the housing needs between 2000 and 2010 when the CPH
2010 becomes available.
10. Estimate the number of households based on the 2000 CPH re-configured to 2007 regional
composition. This is due to the fact that 2007 POPCEN has yet to come up with the number
of households in its final tabulation. Since the housing needs estimation requires the use of
number of households to be able to estimate the number of housing units occupied at the
time of the census, there is a need to estimate the number of households and the housing
needs as of July 1, 2007. Using average household size method, estimated number of
households by region is generated using 2000 regional average household size. However,
before this was done, the regional composition of 2007 Census had to be matched with the
regional composition of the 2000 CPH because there were some changes in the provincial
composition.

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11. To determine the number of housing units as of July 1, 2007, the density of the 2000 housing
units was computed based on the 2007 regional configuration, by region and by construction
materials. Density of housing is the number of households divided by the number of housing
units by construction materials and by region in 2000. Using the density of housing
generated from 2000 CPH, the number of housing units was estimated by region. The
density by construction materials was also computed to be used in estimating housing units
by type of construction materials in 2007 and for 2008, 2009 and 2010.
12. Since we have a structure of the selected indicators in 2000 CPH, we used them to
extrapolate the same characteristics in the estimates of 2007 the number of housing units
and number of households. This yielded an estimate of the doubled-up households, by
selected indicators and by region.
13. For the sake of trend analysis at the regional level, with the new composition of some
regions, estimates of housing units, number of households and doubled-up households were
also done as of July 1 2000 using the 2007 regional composition. The 2000 data will provide
the basic data to monitor the extent of accomplishment of the housing program in the next
census. It may be mentioned, that when the accumulated needs of 1990 have not been met
between 1990 and 2000, then this becomes part of the backlog in housing construction, if
the objective of the government is to be able to replace all these unacceptable structures
over a period of time.
Population Projection
14. Since the 2007 actual population count is lower than the level of the official population
projection under medium population growth assumption, it was not therefore practical to use
the official population projection. Doing so will lead to over-estimation of housing needs. In
view of this, SRTC Research Team decided to prepare its own population projection by using
the exponential growth rate formula6 and applied the population growth rate computed
between the 2000 CPH and 2007 POPCEN to the initial population used by the TWG as of
July 1, 2000 in preparing the official projection. Also prepared was the population projection
starting 2000 with the same base population as used by the official projection so that there is
a means of comparing the effect of the increase in the number of households which will
increase the estimate of housing needs.
15. After the population is determined at the national level for 2008, 2009, and 2010 based on
the growth rate between the two censuses (2000 CPH and 2007 POPCEN), the national
estimate is distributed to the different regions following the pattern of the distribution in 2007.
Then the number of households is calculated using the derived household size of the
decomposed 2000 data that follows the 2007 regional composition of provinces. Next, the
housing density of the region as obtained from the 2000CPH (computed from the
decomposed regional classification) is now applied to this projected household to determine
the number of housing units. The number of households can be estimated in the same
manner as done in 2007 by using the average household size of the configured data of 2000.
16. Considering that one of the components of future needs is the increase in the number of
households, the increase is determined at the household level after distribution of national
estimate to regions is performed.
17. There is a need to compute for the allowance for replacements annually. The inputs needed
are the acceptable housing units according to the construction materials of the unit. Take
note that all tabulations were done using the type of construction materials as a common
6

Exponential growth rate: r = [ln (Pn Po)] t

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variable. The allowance for replacements of acceptable structures can only be computed
after identifying from the Housing Inventory which are acceptable and which are not.
18. Similar tabulations are generated as mentioned in item 6 are produced. These contain the
housing needs of the projected population 2008-2010.
Presentation of Estimates of Housing Needs: 2007 2010
19. Summary of different annual estimates of accumulated needs was established. It is not
correct to present the levels of estimates by year and then average the total because it will
not show the increments of the needs yearly, thus only the difference between two estimates
is presented so that the total housing needs for the period from 2007 to 2010 can be
aggregated at the end of the period. The rationale to this is because at the start of the
inventory of housing stocks, all unacceptable structures are to be replaced including the
doubled-up households during the planned period or based on the objectives of the housing
program whether to hasten the elimination of all unacceptable structures within the planned
period or target only what the government is able to provide. Furthermore, the annual
increments of unacceptable structure contribute to the addition of unacceptable structures at
the end of the period which can contribute to additional backlogs of unmet needs for this
subcomponent. Based on the literature on housing needs estimation discussed in the UN
Handbook of Housing Needs Estimation, this yearly construction which are addition to the
present stock still follows the pattern of structure according to the type of construction
materials and type of building of the existing stocks, thus, only increments are added to the
original inventory. This information may provide the planners more leeway in determining
which of the sub-components be given priority.
20. To summarize the annual estimates of allowance for replacements of stock of acceptable
housing units and the annual increase of households, the annual estimates are merely
aggregated to reflect the extent of the magnitude of the future or recurrent needs on the total
housing needs for the three-year period which have to be met in order not to incur housing
backlogs in the next planning period.
Estimates of Housing Needs as of January 1, 2007 to January 1, 2011
21. Another set of estimates of housing needs was prepared with January 1 for years 2007 to
2010 as reference period. Hence, a corresponding set of population projections was
prepared using the same reference period.
Since the time reference of estimates shifted from July 1 to January 1, new set of
population projections from 2001 to 2011 was prepared using the same exponential growth
rate formula applied to the May 1, 2000 population census count and August 1, 2007
population count. The basic formula for exponential growth rate is:
Pn = Po ert

(Equation 1)

Translated to exponential rate r = [ln (Pn ) ln (Po)] t

where:

Pn
Po
ln
t

= the population count as of August 1, 2007 (88,571,421)

= the population count as of May 1, 2000 (76,504,077)
= the base of natural logarithm which is approximately 2.7183
= the no. of years between May 1 2000 and August 1, 2007
= 7 years and 92/365 days or 7.25205

Annual exponential rate computed: r = 0.0201964 or 2.019%

Page 12 of 19

22. The number of households in 2007 was estimated using the actual average household size
computed from the May 1, 2000 results reconfigured to 2007 regional classification. Prior to
this, projected population as of January 1, 2007 is prorated to regions using the percentage
distribution of the population count based on August 1, 2007 census. Same procedure was
done for 2009-2011.
Estimates of Housing Units and Doubled-up Households by Construction Materials:
23. In estimating total housing needs, the estimates for components of selected housing
indicators: homeless households, informal settlers, living in dilapidated/condemned
structures and residing in marginal housing are computed first. This is by extrapolating the
figures generated in January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2007 and onwards. This is on assumption
that the same distribution for the indicators will hold true until another census is undertaken.
To estimate the number of housing units of selected housing indicators, the following
procedure as already discussed above was used.
24. As a requirement in the determination of housing needs by region, number of households,
housing units and doubled-up households by region of selected housing indicators were
estimated following the same procedure described previously. The specific detailed
procedure of determining housing needs by region is as follows:
a. Compute the percentage distribution of households of all selected housing indicators by
region from the actual data of May 1, 2000 configured in 2007 regional composition.
With the estimated total households, the total number of households by region is
distributed in each cell using the percentage distribution or ratios. Note that this step will
produce slightly different distribution of households by region compared with the first.
b. Compute housing density of households as of May 1, 2000 (Step 1) to generate divisors
to extrapolate number of housing units in each cell of the housing indicators. Use this
density to estimate the housing units in each cell by region by dividing the density by the
number of households in each cell.
c. After the housing units have been extrapolated, the number of doubled-up households
can be computed for each cell by merely getting the difference between the number of
households and the number of housing units.
The end result of the above procedure will produce tabulation of housing needs by selected
housing indicators for 2007. Same procedure is done to generate those for years 2008,
2009, 2010 and 2011.
Estimation of Housing Needs at National Level: 2007-2010
The following Table presents in detail the different components of Housing Needs. The
contents of the table include estimates of housing needs showing the major components of
accumulated needs and recurrent or future needs for 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010.
Based on the UN Component Method in estimating housing needs, the two major
components are: Accumulated Needs and Recurrent or Future Needs. Each has subcomponents.
Accumulated Needs were estimated initially after conduct of a Census of Housing where
the inventory of Housing was taken. It has two categories with subcomponents:
1.
Households residing in unacceptable structures
a)
Those in living quarters not intended for human habitation (Homeless)
b)
Those in dilapidated/condemned housing units
c)
Households without security of tenure (Informal settlers)
Page 13 of 19

2.

d)
Those in marginal housing units
Doubled-up households living in acceptable housing units

Recurrent or Future Needs are classified into two:

1.
2.

Replacement of acceptable housing Units due to inventory loss; and

Increase in the number of households.

Estimates of Housing Needs by Major Components: January 1, 2007 December 31, 2010
(Unit in Household)
Components of Housing Needs

Total Housing
Initial Needs
Incremental Needs as of December 31
Needs
(As of Jan 1,
CY
2007-2010
2007)
2007
BACKLOG (Jan 2-Dec 31) CY2008 CY2009 CY2010

(1)
Total Housing Needs

(2)
1,273,395

A. Accumulated Needs
1. HH in Unacceptable Housing
a. Homeless
b. Dilapidated/condemned
c. Marginal Housing (including
informal settlers)
2. Doubled-up HH in Acceptable HU

1,273,395
859,310
11,937
134,931
712,442

25,981
17,532
244
2,753
14,535

414,085

8,449

B. Future/Recurrent Needs
1. Allowance for Inventory losses
2. New HHs (likely to afford to
own/rent acceptable HU)

(3)
(4)
572,388 584,067

(5)
595,981

(6)
608,141

(7)
3,633,972

26,507
17,888
248
2,809
14,831

27,051
18,254
254
2,866
15,134

27,603
18,627
259
2,925
15,443

1,380,537
931,611
12,942
146,284
772,385

8,619

8,797

8,976

448,926

546,407 557,560
215,958 220,364

568,930
224,859

580,538
229,447

2,253,435
890,628

330,449 337,196

344,071

351,091

1,362,807

Following tables show regional breakdown.

Page 14 of 19

Initial Estimates of Regional Housing Needs (2007)

Total HHs
Homeless

2007
PHILIPPIN 17,470,630
NCR
2,439,578
CAR
301,776
Ilocos Reg
951,073
634,192
Cagayan V
Central Luz 1,906,690
Calabarzon 2,193,777
Mimaropa
526,050
Bicol Regio 1,022,310
Western Vi 1,385,985
Central Vis 1,296,731
817,852
Eastern Vis
Zamboang
611,081
Northern M
788,425
863,853
Davao Reg
Soccsksarg
737,914
Caraga
449,903
ARMM
543,442

11,937
8,018
96
185
189
610
1,056
111
272
125
360
140
94
218
140
127
116
82

Accumulated Needs
(as of January 1, 2007)
Dilapidate Informal DoubledTotal
Up
d/
AccumuHousehold
Condemn
lated
s in
ed
Needs
+Marginal Acceptabl
e Units
134,931
21,995
859
4,076
4,321
10,023
10,935
3,098
12,983
14,113
10,338
8,650
5,401
6,009
7,481
5,812
3,787
5,050

712,442
221,803
3,837
13,982
11,646
58,612
93,187
16,772
36,382
47,710
44,542
24,292
14,022
26,305
38,420
25,604
23,697
11,630

414,085 1,273,395
134,047 385,862
4,464
9,256
26,329
44,573
11,131
27,286
34,686 103,930
41,227 146,405
5,565
25,547
11,524
61,161
21,171
83,118
17,568
72,808
8,204
41,285
8,339
27,856
17,688
50,220
16,599
62,640
12,078
43,621
7,474
35,074
35,991
52,753

Homeless

244
164
2
4
4
12
22
2
6
3
7
3
2
4
3
3
2
2

Incremental Accumulated Needs

Future Needs
(January 2-December 31, 2007)
Dilapidate Informa Doubled- Increment Inventory Projected
Total
al Accumu- Losses
Up
No. of
d/
Future
Household
Condemn
New HHs
lated
Needs
s in
ed
that can
Needs
l+Marginal Acceptabl
afford to
e Units
buy/rent
2,753
449
18
83
88
204
223
63
265
288
211
176
110
123
153
119
77
103

14,535
4,525
78
285
238
1,196
1,901
342
742
973
909
496
286
537
784
522
483
237

8,448
2,735
91
537
227
708
841
114
235
432
358
167
170
361
339
246
152
734

25,979
7,872
189
909
557
2,120
2,987
521
1,248
1,696
1,485
842
568
1,025
1,278
890
716
1,076

215,958
27,382
3,900
12,086
8,092
24,036
27,298
6,673
12,815
17,371
16,319
10,354
7,776
9,842
10,683
9,257
5,531
6,542

330,451
41,899
5,968
18,494
12,382
36,779
41,770
10,211
19,609
26,581
24,970
15,843
11,899
15,061
16,346
14,165
8,463
10,011

Total
Incremental
Needs

546,408
69,281
9,868
30,580
20,474
60,816
69,067
16,884
32,424
43,952
41,289
26,197
19,675
24,903
27,029
23,422
13,994
16,553

572,388
77,154
10,057
31,490
21,030
62,936
72,054
17,406
33,672
45,648
42,774
27,039
20,243
25,928
28,307
24,312
14,710
17,629

Page 15 of 19

Total Needs
As of
31. 2007

1,845,783
463,016
19,313
76,062
48,317
166,866
218,459
42,952
94,833
128,765
115,582
68,325
48,099
76,148
90,947
67,933
49,784
70,382

Incremental Estimates of Regional Housing Needs (2008-2010)

Total HHs

Accumulated Needs

Homeless

2008
PHILIPPIN 17,827,060
NCR
2,489,349
CAR
307,933
970,477
Ilocos Reg
647,130
Cagayan V
Central Luz 1,945,590
Calabarzon 2,238,534
Mimaropa
536,783
Bicol Regio 1,043,166
Western Vi 1,414,261
Central Vis 1,323,186
834,537
Eastern Vis
623,548
Zamboang
Northern M
804,510
881,477
Davao Reg
752,968
Soccsksarg
Caraga
459,081
ARMM
554,529

(as of January 1, 2008)

Dilapidate Informal DoubledTotal
d/
Up
AccumuCondemn
Household
lated
ed
s in
Needs
+Marginal Acceptabl
e Units

Incremental Accumulated Needs

Homeless

249
167
2
4
4
13
22
2
6
3
8
3
2
5
3
3
2
2

Future Needs

(January 2-December 31, 2008)

Dilapidate Informa Doubled- Increment Inventory Projected
al Accumu- Losses
d/
Up
No. of
Condemn
Household
lated
New HHs
ed
s in
Needs
that can
l+Marginal Acceptabl
afford to
e Units
buy/rent
2,809
458
18
85
90
209
228
65
270
294
215
180
112
125
156
121
79
105

14,832
4,617
80
291
242
1,220
1,940
349
757
993
927
506
292
548
800
533
493
242

8,620
2,791
93
548
232
722
858
116
240
441
366
171
174
368
346
251
156
749

26,509
8,033
193
928
568
2,164
3,048
532
1,273
1,730
1,516
859
580
1,045
1,304
908
730
1,098

220,364
27,941
3,980
12,333
8,257
24,527
27,855
6,809
13,076
17,726
16,651
10,565
7,935
10,043
10,901
9,446
5,644
6,676

337,194
42,754
6,090
18,871
12,635
37,530
42,622
10,419
20,009
27,123
25,480
16,167
12,142
15,368
16,680
14,454
8,636
10,215

Total
Incremental
Needs

Total Needs
(from 2007 to
2008)

Total
Future
Needs

557,557
70,695
10,069
31,204
20,891
62,056
70,477
17,229
33,086
44,849
42,131
26,732
20,076
25,411
27,580
23,900
14,280
16,891

584,067
78,728
10,262
32,132
21,460
64,220
73,525
17,761
34,359
46,579
43,647
27,591
20,656
26,457
28,884
24,808
15,010
17,989

Page 16 of 19

2,429,850
541,744
29,575
108,195
69,776
231,086
291,984
60,713
129,192
175,344
159,229
95,916
68,755
102,605
119,831
92,740
64,793
88,371

Incremental Estimates of Regional Housing Needs (2008-2010) continued

Total HHs

Accumulated Needs

Homeless

2009
PHILIPPIN
NCR
CAR
Ilocos Reg
Cagayan V
Central Luz
Calabarzon
Mimaropa
Bicol Regio
Western Vi
Central Vis
Eastern Vis
Zamboanga
Northern M
Davao Reg
Soccsksarg
Caraga
ARMM

18,190,763
2,540,136
314,215
990,276
660,333
1,985,283
2,284,204
547,734
1,064,449
1,443,114
1,350,182
851,563
636,270
820,923
899,461
768,330
468,447
565,842

(as of January 1, 2009)

Dilapidate Informal DoubledTotal
d/
Up
AccumuCondemn
Household
lated
ed
s in
Needs
+Marginal Acceptabl
e Units

Incremental Accumulated Needs

Homeless

254
170
2
4
4
13
22
2
6
3
8
3
2
5
3
3
2
2

Future Needs

(January 2-December 31, 2009)

Dilapidate Informa Doubled- Increment Inventory Projected
No. of
d/
Up
al Accumu- Losses
lated
New HHs
Condemn
Household
Needs
that can
ed
s in
l+Marginal Acceptabl
afford to
buy/rent
e Units
2,866
467
18
87
92
213
232
66
276
300
220
184
115
128
159
123
80
107

15,134
4,712
82
297
247
1,245
1,980
356
773
1,013
946
516
298
559
816
544
503
247

8,796
2,848
95
559
236
737
876
118
245
450
373
174
177
376
353
257
159
765

27,050
8,197
197
947
580
2,208
3,110
543
1,299
1,766
1,547
877
592
1,067
1,331
927
745
1,121

224,859
28,511
4,061
12,585
8,425
25,027
28,423
6,948
13,343
18,087
16,991
10,781
8,097
10,248
11,123
9,639
5,759
6,812

344,072
43,626
6,214
19,256
12,892
38,295
43,492
10,632
20,417
27,676
25,999
16,496
12,389
15,681
17,020
14,749
8,812
10,424

Total
Incremental
Needs

Total Needs
(from 2007 to
2009)

Total
Future
Needs

568,931
72,137
10,275
31,841
21,318
63,322
71,914
17,580
33,761
45,763
42,991
27,277
20,486
25,930
28,143
24,387
14,571
17,236

595,981
80,334
10,471
32,788
21,897
65,530
75,024
18,123
35,060
47,529
44,537
28,154
21,078
26,996
29,473
25,314
15,316
35,592

Page 17 of 19

3,025,831
622,078
40,047
140,983
91,673
296,616
367,008
78,836
164,252
222,873
203,766
124,070
89,833
129,601
149,304
118,054
80,109
123,963

Incremental Estimates of Regional Housing Needs (2008-2010) continued

Total HHs

Accumulated Needs

Homeless

2010
PHILIPPIN 18,561,885
NCR
2,591,959
CAR
320,626
Ilocos Reg 1,010,479
673,805
Cagayan V
Central Luz 2,025,786
Calabarzon 2,330,806
Mimaropa
558,909
Bicol Regio 1,086,165
Western Vi 1,472,556
Central Vis 1,377,728
868,937
Eastern Vis
649,251
Zamboang
837,671
Northern M
917,811
Davao Reg
784,005
Soccsksarg
Caraga
478,004
ARMM
577,387

(as of January 1, 2010)

Dilapidate Informal DoubledTotal
d/
Up
AccumuCondemn
Household
lated
ed
s in
Needs
+Marginal Acceptabl
e Units

Incremental Accumulated Needs

Homeless

259
174
2
4
4
13
23
2
6
3
8
3
2
5
3
3
3
2

Future Needs

(January 2-December 31, 2010)

Dilapidate Informa Doubled- Increment Inventory Projected
No. of
d/
Up
al Accumu- Losses
lated
New HHs
Condemn
Household
Needs
that can
ed
s in
l+Marginal Acceptabl
afford to
buy/rent
e Units
2,925
477
19
88
94
217
237
67
281
306
224
187
117
130
162
126
82
109

15,443
4,808
83
303
252
1,270
2,020
364
789
1,034
965
527
304
570
833
555
514
252

8,976
2,906
97
571
241
752
894
121
250
459
381
178
181
383
360
262
162
780

27,602
8,364
201
966
591
2,253
3,173
554
1,326
1,802
1,578
895
604
1,089
1,358
946
760
1,143

229,447
29,093
4,144
12,841
8,597
25,538
29,003
7,090
13,615
18,456
17,338
11,001
8,262
10,457
11,350
9,835
5,876
6,951

351,092
44,516
6,341
19,649
13,155
39,077
44,379
10,849
20,834
28,241
26,530
16,833
12,642
16,001
17,367
15,050
8,992
10,636

Total
Incremental
Needs

Total Needs
(from 2007 to
2010)

Total
Future
Needs

580,539
73,609
10,484
32,491
21,753
64,614
73,382
17,939
34,449
46,697
43,868
27,834
20,904
26,459
28,717
24,885
14,868
17,587

608,141
81,973
10,685
33,457
22,344
66,867
76,555
18,493
35,775
48,499
45,446
28,728
21,508
27,547
30,075
25,830
15,628
18,731

Page 18 of 19

3,633,972
704,051
50,732
174,439
114,017
363,483
443,563
97,328
200,027
271,372
249,212
152,799
111,341
157,148
179,379
143,884
95,738
142,694

References:
1. Final Technical Report of the research project Development of Shelter Monitoring and
Information System
2. Medium Term Philippine Development Plans. 1987-1992, 1993-1998, 1999-2004, 20052010, National Economic Development Authority
3. Methods of Estimating Housing Needs. Studies in Methods Series F. No. 12, United
Nations, New York, 1967.
4. Housing Needs in the Philippines 1970-2000 Projections. Monograph No. 18, National
Census and Statistics Office (NCSO now NSO), 1979
5. Guidelines for the Preparation of Local Shelter Plans. Housing and Urban
Development and Coordinating Council, United Nations Centre for Human Settlements,
Government of Finland, June 1994
6. Census of Population and Housing 2000, National Statistics Office
7. Population Census 2007, National Statistics Office

Page 19 of 19