[ Morning Report ]

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Market Overview
Market kicked-off the week on positive note overcoming the 34K levels after a gap
of 1 month. The benchmark KSE-100 index closed up by 340.67 points to close at
34,183.85 points.

OGDC & POL: Result Previews

OGDC: Lower oil prices to drop bottom-line
OGDC is set to announce its first quarter results on 16 October 2015. We anticipate OGDC to post
massive drop in earnings by 36% YoY as profit after tax (PAT) would decline to Rs 17.98 billion
(EPS: Rs 4.18) in 1QFY16 against PAT of Rs 28.31 billion (EPS: Rs 6.58) in 1QFY15. Decline in earning expected due to lower oil prices and reduction in other income. Revenue likely to fall by 27%
to Rs 47.16 billion in 1QFY16 compared to Rs 64.39 billion in 1QFY15 due to lower oil & gas prices
and stable oil & gas production. Other income is likely to decrease by 40% to Rs 3.74 billion
against Rs 6.28 billion in 1QFY15 due to lower return on investments and reduction in exchange
gains. We expect OGDC to announce dividend of Rs 1.50/ share in 1QFY16.
Rs in million
1QFY16E
1QFY15A
Net Sales
47,167
64,396
Royalty
5,330
7,416
Operating Expenses
12,567
13,213
Transportation Charges
474
615
Gross Profit
28,797
43,152
Exploration Expenditure
3,201
3,752
Other Income
3,747
6,280
General & Admin. Expenses
1,198
1,332
WPPF
1,438
2,188
Financial Charges
662
612
Share of Profit
27
31
Profit before Taxation
26,071
41,580
Taxation
8,082
13,270
Profit after Taxation
17,989
28,310
EPS (Rs)
4.18
6.58
Source: Company Report and AZEE Research

YoY
-27%
-28%
-5%
-23%
-33%
-15%
-40%
-10%
-34%
8%
-12%
-37%
-39%
-36%

4QFY15A
47,932
5,253
15,779
464
26,435
3,766
3,695
1,498
1,259
649
963
23,920
4,678
19,243
4.47

QoQ
-2%
1%
-20%
2%
9%
-15%
1%
-20%
14%
2%
-97%
9%
73%
-7%

POL likely to post PAT of Rs 1.52bn (EPS: Rs 6.43)

Pakistan Oilfields will announce its first quarter result on 15 October 2015, where it is likely to
announce earnings of Rs 1.52 billion in 1QFY16 as compared to Rs 4.16 billion during the same period last year. This translates into a earning per share of Rs 6.43 for 1QFY16 and Rs 17.62 for 1QFY15;
depicting a decline by 64%YoY likely due to lower oil prices and reduction in other income despite
higher dividend from associated companies. Net Sales of the company likely to drop by 44% to Rs
5.51 billion as against Rs 9.84 billion same period last year. The likely reason of decrease of top-line
would be lower crude oil prices which down by 49% YoY along with lower oil & gas production.
Gross profit likely to decline by 66% to Rs 2.01 billion versus Rs 5.96 billion in 1QFY15.
Rs in million
1QFY16E 1QFY15A
YoY
4QFY15A QoQ
Net Sales
5,518
9,845
-44%
6,477
-15%
Operating Costs
2,201
2,150
2%
2,158
2%
Excise duty & Surcharge
61
64
-4%
60
2%
Royalty
480
918
-48%
521
-8%
Amortization
761
752
1%
746
2%
Gross Profit
2,015
5,962
-66%
2,992
-33%
Exploration Costs
195
288
-32%
1,625
-88%
Administrative Expenses
20
38
-46%
20
2%
Finance Cost
194
497
-61%
190
2%
Other Charges
118
367
-68%
(165)
-172%
Other Operating Income
596
830
-28%
204
193%
Profit before Taxation
2,083
5,602
-63%
1,526
37%
Provision for Taxation
562
1,435
-61%
434
30%
Profit after Taxation
1,521
4,167
-64%
1,092
39%
EPS (Rs)
6.43
17.62
4.62
Source: Company Report and AZEE Research

NCCPL (U.S $ in million)

Portfolio Investment U.S $ in million)

FIPI (12-Oct-2015)
1.78
Local Companies (12-Oct-2015)
-2.41
Banks / DFI (12-Oct-2015)
3.87
Mutual Funds (12-Oct-2015)
4.66
NBFC (12-Oct-2015)
-0.06
Local Investors (12-Oct-2015)
-7.34
Other Organization (12-Oct-2015) 0.15

Yearly(Jul, 2015 up to 07-Oct-2015)

Monthly(Oct, 2015 up to 07-Oct-2015)
Daily (07-Oct-2015)

-137.93
2.26
-0.02

Total Portfolio Investment (23-Sep-2015) 6259

1

News Update
Overseas Pakistani workers remitted US$ 4966.54 million in the first three months (July to September) of FY
2015-16, showing a growth of 4.01% compared with
US$ 4775.12 million received during the same period
in the corresponding year. During September 2015,
the inflow of worker's remittances amounted to US$
1775.87 million, which is 16.3% higher than August
2015 and 1.57% higher than September 2014, a statement of the Central Bank issued on Monday said. The
country wise details for the month of September 2015
show that inflows from Saudi Arabia, UAE, USA, UK,
GCC countries (including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and
Oman) and EU countries amounted to US$ 483.21 million, US$ 428.13 million, US$ 260.97 million, US$
233.27 million, US$ 201.34 million and US$ 33.3 million respectively compared with the inflow of US$
495.63 million, US$ 396.28 million, US$ 252.07 million, US$ 226.72 million, US$ 216.84 million and US$
THE implementation of some of the relief measures
announced in the prime minister's agri package has
been stayed until December by the Election
Commission of Pakistan. One of the affected measures
is the Rs500 subsidy for every bag of di-ammonium
phosphate (DAP) fertiliser. The subsidy will be unavailable to farmers in Sindh when the wheat-sowing season begins next month.
Federal Minister for Finance Senator Mohammad
Ishaq Dar said the government would be able to overcome the energy crisis by early 2018 by adding 10000
Mega Watt more electricity to the national grid.
"Currently we are facing a shortfall of about 5000 MW
of electricity whereas energy projects of 24000 MW
are under process and some of them will start generating 10000MW by the end of year 2017 or early
2018," he said while addressing a ceremony organized
by Old Hailians Association here.

KSE Statistics
Indices
All Share Index
KSE-30TM Index
KSE-100TM Index
Turnover
All Share Index
KSE-30TM Index
KSE-100TM Index

October 12, 2015

23,890.27
20,658.19
34,183.85
195,913,880
96,585,500
117,808,950

[ Morning Report ]

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Pivot Analysis
Company

Board Meetings
CR

RSI

Buy 1

Buy 2

Sell 1

Sell 2

Pivot

Company

DATE

TIME

Bank Al Habib Ltd

14-10-2015 11:30

Baluchistan Wheels Ltd

14-10-2015 11:00

Haydari Construction Co. Ltd

14-10-2015

9:30

Hussein Industries Ltd

14-10-2015

4:00

Attock Petroleum Ltd

15-10-2015 11:30

IBL HealthCare Ltd

15-10-2015 12:00

National Refinery Ltd

15-10-2015 10:30

Pak Oilfields Ltd

15-10-2015

2:30

Engro Powergen Qadirpur

16-10-2015

9:30

KSE 100 INDEX

34183.85

60.61

33,934 33,684

34,343

34,502

34,093

Attock Cement

178.52

42.11

175.35 172.15

182.35

186.15

179.15

Adamjee Insurance

55.94

53.82

55.60

55.25

56.50

57.05

56.15

Askari Bank

22.42

52.50

21.95

21.50

22.70

23.05

22.25

Azgard Nine

5.06

46.88

4.95

4.85

5.20

5.30

5.05

Attock Petroleum

535.68

54.89

531.85 528.05

539.60

543.55

535.80

Attock Refinery

205.53

54.24

203.85 202.20

207.10

208.70

205.45

Bank Al-Falah

27.33

58.79

27.10

26.85

27.60

27.85

27.35

Key Data

BankIslami Pak

10.40

44.45

10.05

9.70

10.60

10.75

10.25

Money Market

Bank.Of.Punjab

8.80

56.60

8.65

8.55

8.90

9.05

8.80

Faysal Bank

16.00

55.50

15.80

15.65

16.10

16.25

15.95

Fauji Cement

36.27

59.22

35.95

35.60

36.80

37.30

36.45

Fauji Fert Bin

61.08

50.70

60.55

60.00

61.65

62.25

61.10

Fauji Fertilizer

129.46

51.76

126.40 123.35

131.10

132.75

128.05

Habib Bank Ltd

204.20

46.17

200.80 197.40

208.30

212.40

204.90

Hub Power

102.97

54.91

102.40 101.85

103.65

104.35

103.10

ICI Pakistan

518.25

59.53

515.00 511.75

521.50

524.75

518.25

Lucky Cement

548.21

58.21

545.15 542.10

553.15

558.05

550.05

MCB Bank Ltd

237.86

48.10

233.20 228.50

240.80

243.70

236.10

Oil & Gas Development Co. Ltd 16-10-2015 11:00

Habib Metropolitan Bank Ltd

30-Sep-2015

6.48%

T-Bills (6 Mths)

30-Sep-2015

6.48%

T-Bills (12 Mths)

30-Sep-2015

6.97%

Policy Rate

12-Sep-2015

6.00%

Kibor (1 Mth)

12-Oct-2015

6.53%

Kibor (3 Mths)

12-Oct-2015

6.59%

Kibor (6 Mths)

12-Oct-2015

6.62%

Kibor (9 Mths)

12-Oct-2015

6.87%

Kibor (1 Yr)

12-Oct-2015

6.90%

P.I.B (3 Yrs)

12-Oct-2015

7.14%

P.I.B (5 Yrs)

12-Oct-2015

8.12%

P.I.B (10 Yrs)

12-Oct-2015

9.27%

P.I.B (15 Yrs)

12-Oct-2015

10.30%

P.I.B (20 Yrs)

12-Oct-2015

10.55%

12-Oct-2015

11.00%

72.97

58.83

72.00

71.00

74.45

75.95

73.50

P.I.B (30 Yrs)

National Bank

52.83

51.29

52.05

51.30

53.40

54.00

52.65

Commodities

Nishat Mills

103.64

54.28

102.40 101.15

105.05

106.45

103.80

Pak Petroleum

138.59

62.24

135.60 132.60

140.75

142.90

137.75

18.26

49.88

18.40

18.55

18.25

18.10

17.95

CR = Yesterday's Closing Rate; RSI = 14 day RSI.

RSI Indication: Less than 30 Indicate oversold position & Greater than 70
Indicate overbought position.
2

3:00

T-Bills (3 Mths)

Maple Leaf Cement

P.T.C.L.A

16-10-2015

Crude Oil (brent)$/bbl

Crude Oil (WTI)$/bbl
Cotton $/lb
Gold $/ozs
Silver $/ozs
Malaysian Palm $
GOLD (PMEX) PKR
KHI Cotton 40Kg PKR

51.95
48.79
61.83
1,161.00
15.87
546
39,139
5,573

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

MTS Leverage Position

Unrel Volume
9-Oct-15
8-Oct-15
Chg DoD %
Symbol
AHCL
AICL
AKBL
ATRL
BAFL
BAHL
BOP
CHCC
DGKC
EFERT
EFOODS
ENGRO
FABL
FATIMA
FCCL
FFBL
FFC
GATM
HUBC
HUMNL
KEL
LUCK
MLCF
NBP
NCL
NML
OGDC
PAEL
PAKCEM
PIOC
PKGP
PPL
PSO
PTC
SEARL
SNGP
SSGC
UBL
TOTAL

Unrel Value

85,507,700 4,319,726,282
83,855,200 4,193,773,955
1.97%
3.00%
Unrel Volume

Unrel Value

157,000
6,894,217
805,000
36,804,384
2,049,000
37,686,416
248,900
41,469,921
758,000
16,563,906
7,271,000
51,168,726
125,500
8,988,517
2,173,600
257,216,884
675,000
52,266,945
561,800
70,919,245
1,925,600
496,146,155
266,000
3,481,004
6,946,500
269,621,346
4,350,000
126,340,736
2,727,500
139,406,206
501,900
52,600,314
4,000
132,981
72,500
6,132,911
50,000
706,590
14,158,000
85,500,182
24,800
11,158,516
2,507,200
145,555,367
365,500
16,076,632
1,720,500
54,424,594
673,500
56,440,662
162,500
17,222,916
4,541,700
289,290,216
2,324,700
35,497,778
779,100
56,872,840
9,500
220,284
554,500
57,845,210
1,227,300
304,774,124
3,647,000
54,641,982
6,400
1,988,468
4,474,600
121,019,772
8,209,300
259,285,738
8,452,800 1,077,363,597
85,507,700 4,319,726,282

MTS Volume
10,990,750
8,586,000
28.01%
MTS Volume
57,500
125,000
51,900
36,500
2,160,000
23,000
847,300
20,000
176,100
206,200
67,500
52,000
1,375,000
379,500
24,700
193,000
33,200
957,500
63,000
260,000
1,050,500
19,800
754,500
360,600
43,900
201,950
74,000
303,000
307,400
478,200
288,000
10,990,750

MTS Value
641,613,673
524,942,167
22.23%
MTS Value
2,713,299
2,327,513
8,958,702
847,202
16,070,830
1,746,282
105,105,175
1,566,958
23,830,267
54,344,233
903,926
2,046,996
42,788,843
19,569,265
2,635,557
1,181,504
15,611,128
59,591,711
2,785,873
8,566,040
91,816,698
2,314,727
52,452,125
5,810,175
3,326,041
23,050,896
20,888,095
4,688,631
8,860,218
15,767,212
39,447,555
641,613,673

Total Volume
96,498,450
92,441,200
4.39%
Total Volume
157,000
862,500
2,174,000
300,800
794,500
9,431,000
148,500
3,020,900
695,000
737,900
2,131,800
333,500
6,998,500
5,725,000
3,107,000
526,600
4,000
72,500
50,000
14,351,000
58,000
3,464,700
428,500
1,980,500
1,724,000
182,300
5,296,200
2,685,300
823,000
9,500
756,450
1,301,300
3,950,000
6,400
4,782,000
8,687,500
8,740,800
96,498,450

Total Value

MTS Rate

4,961,339,956
4,718,716,122
5.14%

9.97
10.03
-5 bps

Total Value

MTS Rate

6,894,217
39,517,683
40,013,928
50,428,623
17,411,108
67,239,557
10,734,799
362,322,058
53,833,903
94,749,513
550,490,388
4,384,930
271,668,341
169,129,578
158,975,471
55,235,871
132,981
6,132,911
706,590
86,681,686
26,769,644
205,147,078
18,862,505
62,990,634
148,257,359
19,537,643
341,742,340
41,307,953
60,198,882
220,284
80,896,106
325,662,219
59,330,613
1,988,468
129,879,990
275,052,950
1,116,811,152
4,961,339,956

9.91
10.00
10.08
9.50
13.17
9.76
9.47
9.50
9.81
9.43
10.99
9.50
10.73
9.50
9.49
10.65
9.49
9.83
9.66
9.76
9.53
9.50
12.10
11.44
9.90
9.32
9.26
9.55
10.25
9.99
9.52
9.97

CORPORATE OFFICE.
Suite # 208 2nd floor, Business & Finance Centre,
Main I.I. Chundrigar Road, Karachi, Pakistan.
Tel: 111-293-293, 021-2467131-40
Email: info@azeetrade.com

Risk Disclosure
This report has been prepared by AZEE Securities (Pvt) Limited and the information contained in the Product is
intended solely for the recipient or attached skilled individuals of the firm. The Firm accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of individual, collateral or third parties in all over Pakistan and abroad as well. This report is provided solely for the information of professional advisers who are expected to make their own investment decisions
without undue reliance on this report and AZEE Securities (Pvt) Limited accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any
direct or indirect consequential loss arising from any use of this report contents. All rights reserved. The material
contained in this report is based on data obtained from sources we deem to be reliable and without prior written
permission this information is provided on an "as is" basis.

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Exchange Road, Karachi 74000, Pakistan.
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