Mariko Wakatsuki

1. Issue

The United States must decide on how to officially react to the Tiananmen Square

violence that occurred in China. The position taken will influence the relationship

between the United States and China in the coming years. The results of a particular

stance will have bigger effect the sooner it is adopted, so a decision on how the US will

react should be made quickly.

2. Background

• The Communists gained control of China in 1949. China became a nuclear power in

1964.

• Official Bilateral relations with China were opened in the 1970s

• During the cold war, the Soviet Union, and not China, was considered the biggest threat

to US security. An open relationship with China has helped the United States maintain

some influence over the region and balance the influence of the Soviet Union. The

Chinese also felt somewhat threatened by Soviet power, which facilitated the

strengthening of the relationship with the United States.

• China has since become an important trade partner with the United States.

• China’s influence in Asia has grown. Its military and economy have also grown.

• China reacted to student pro-democracy protests with extreme violence. The pro-

democracy protests were stopped.

• The general public in the United States was angered by the violent reaction of the

Chinese government. Members of congress have called for condemnation of the act by

the United States.

3. Objectives
Mariko Wakatsuki

• Maintain a strong relationship between the United States and China

• Maintain domestic political support of the American people

• Pressure China to end future human rights violations against their own people

• Promote the spread of democracy in Asia and reduce the influence of communism

• Promote continued economic growth of the United States

• Improve US influence in Asia

4. Analysis

• The development of bilateral relationships between the United States and China has been

a strategic necessity to limit the influence of the Soviet Union in Asia. The Chinese were

open to relations with the US in the 70’s because they felt threatened by Soviet

expansion. If the US reaction to the Tiananmen Square incident makes China feel

threatened, they may begin to strengthen ties with the Soviets. This will shift the balance

of power in Asia and hurt the US’s influence in the region.

• The American people are angry over the brutal response by the Chinese government

toward the pro-democracy protesters. If the administration’s response to the Tiananmen

Square incident is too lenient, the administration will lose public support and it will

become more difficult to accomplish other political goals of the administration. Congress

will take advantage of the weakness of the executive and try to increase the power of the

legislative branch.

• If the US responds too weakly to China, the Chinese government will feel that they can

do whatever they want and the United States will not stop them. This may lead to an

increased number of human rights violations by the Chinese government to maintain their

own power and prevent China from becoming a democracy.

Mariko Wakatsuki

• A strong response that condemns the Chinese may be seen by the Chinese as the United

States trying to interfere in Chinese concerns. The Chinese consider the Tiananmen

Square incident to be a domestic concern. A strong response by the United States will

hurt support for US cooperation in China and will strengthen anti-American politicians in

China. This will hurt future Chinese relations. It may negatively impact the United

States by hurting trade and reducing the influence that the United States has in Asia.

• Because China is a nuclear power, maintaining influence over China is important for

national security of the United States. In order to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons,

China must not sell the technology to other countries. It would be especially dangerous if

China sold nuclear weapon technology to countries that are enemies of the United States.

The US can only have an influence over China’s arms sales if it maintains a good

relationship.

• China’s power is growing. It is growing in military power and in economic power. It

will likely become a superpower in Asia because it has lots of potential power and wealth

due to its size and resources. China’s cooperation will be necessary to resolve problems

that may arise in Asian involving surrounding Asian countries such as North and South

Korea. If the US does not maintain a good relationship with China, it will become very

difficult for the US to have influence over what happens in Asia.

• If the US does not criticize the Chinese for their use of violence against democratic

protesters, then may will strengthen the will of other oppressive countries to use violence

to stop anti-government groups. If the United States refuses to condemn Chinese actions

but then condemns the actions of other countries, the US will be a hypocrite and it will

hurt the diplomatic power of the United States in international politics.

Mariko Wakatsuki

5. Options

• Openly condemn the Chinese actions and take action (for example by withdrawing the

US ambassador to China).

PROS: This action would send a strong signal to China that the US does not approve of

its actions and they need to change if they want US cooperation. This might encourage

the Chinese to protect human rights better in the future. This action would also improve

the support of the American people and members of Congress who want the US to take a

strong stance against human rights violations.

CONS: This action may backfire. The Chinese may decide that they do not need US

cooperation and may more closely build their relations with the Soviets. Worsened

relations with the Chinese might hurt trade and the US economy. It would also make it

more difficult to influence situations in Asia because the US might find it hard to gain the

cooperation of the Chinese when dealing with countries around China. It might also

strengthen conservative and anti-democratic politicians in China. There is a possibility

that rather than improve human rights, by strengthening this group in the Chinese

government human rights might get even worse in China.

• Do not condemn the Chinese violence and continue to interact with the Chinese as if the

incident had not taken place.

PROS: This would allow for improved relations and cooperation with China in the future.

China would see that the United States government is not going to interfere with its

domestic politics and would continue to work closely with the United States in

international matters. The United States would likely be able to count more on China to

cooperate with them in Asian politics. Trade between the two countries would also stay

strong, helping the US and Chinese economies develop.

Mariko Wakatsuki

CONS: Domestic support for the administration is likely to drop. This may send the

wrong message to the Chinese, so that the Chinese might feel that they can do whatever

they want and the US will not interfere. This could lead to more human rights problems.

Also, this might hurt US relations with other pro-democratic allies. Other countries may

feel that they can get away with human rights violations without punishment.

• Take the issue to the United Nations, and work with other countries to show disapproval

and penalize the Chinese for their human rights violation.

PROS: The United States can show that they do not agree with the Chinese actions, but

the criticism may have more impact if other countries also disapprove.

CONS: Other countries’ relations with China do not necessarily match the US

relationship, so they want to deal with the situation differently than the US. China also

has a strong influence in the UN. Any decision made by the UN is likely to be less

effective than what the US could do on its own. It will still hurt US-Chinese relations.

• Condemn the Chinese actions vocally, but do not take strong action to punish them.

PROS: This will make some Americans happy as long as the administration shows that

they disapprove. Although it may still hurt relations with China, they will not be as bad

and can be improved in the future. There will still be room for improved cooperation in

the future

CONS: Many Americans will be unsatisfied if no serious action is taken. This will hurt

the short-term support for the administration. This may still give strength to the

conservative Chinese politicians without punishing China in any real way. It may also

hurt the image of the United States among other democratic countries if the US doesn’t

do anything to punish the Chinese.