Ih.

FABRIZIO
LEE

CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM

TO:

INTER ESTED PARTIES

FROM:

TON Y FA BRIZIO & DAVID LEE

RE:

KENTUCKY STATEWI DE UKELY VOTER SURVEY FINDINGS

DA TE:

OCTOBER 16, 2015

Fabri zio. Lee & Associates con ducted a statew ide survey o f likcly 2015 general election vot ers
in Kentuck y on the nights ot Ocro bc r 14-15. 2015. 500 vot ers were surve yed and interviews
were stratified into proport ionate geo graphic areas based o n past election turnout in off-year
genera l elections. The margin in the g ubernato rial election is razo r-t hin, bUI there arc mu ltip le
indica tors that Mall Bevin has the g reater potential to increa se his share of the vo te.

Gu ber nator ial Ba llot

The race for Governor of Kentucky looks as if it wil l go down (0 the wire . Jack Conwa y holds a
slight 3- poin t lead o ver M3Il Bevin. Thi s is a difference within the survey's margin of error.
meaning lhc ba ll ot is a statistic altie. Indepen dent Drew Curtis is in a dista nt third wil h 11 % o f
the vote, with 4% still undecided . On ly 8% o f Kentucky voters are no t firm ly support ing one of
the three candidates . but in a race this tig ht. that is more tha n eno ugh to tip the scales in one
direction or the other.

!\I ATI BE V I N

JACK CON WA Y
DREW CU RT IS
St ron Bevin
Lean Bevin
Sirena Conwa
Lean Con wa
Stron Curt is
Lean C urti s
Firm Undecided DO NOT REA D

41
44
11
39

2
42

2
II

!'olitiell l Environment

Though the ballot is sp lit, our data shows that Mall Bevill has a grea t deal more room for growth
based on the poli tical condit ions inside Kentucky. When voters arc asked whether they would
vote for a Republican who opposes Obarna and his policies OR a Democrat who will be a rubber
stamp for the President, a clear majority supportthe Republican, 53% . 39%. Mall Bevin has
consistently opposed Barack Obarna's liberal policies and is poised to capitalize on this stance
against Jack Conway . who time and time again has been a full- fledged supporter of the President
and his views.
Republican candidate who opposes Obama and his policies
Democrat candidate who is a rubber stam for Obama and his
Unsure!De od' DO NOT READ
Firm Undec ided DO NOT READ
Refused DO NOT READ

licies

53
39
4
2
2

Further buoying Malt Bevin' s chances arc the desire by Kentucky voters for an outsider who will
step on some toes to fix the state's problems. 53% would support such a candidate, one with
business experience who is not pan of the Frankfort political establishment. Meanwhile, just
40"10 of voters feel Kentucky needs a Governor who is an attorney and pan of the Frankfort
establishment.
The State of KENTUCKY needs a Govern or who is an outsider with
business experience and NOT PART of the Frankfort political
estab lishment. Someone who is a proven leader, but willing to step on
some toes to fi x Kcmuckv's problems.
The State of KENTUCKY needs a Governor who is an attorney and PART
of the Frankfort political establishment. Someone who has the experience
to work with the other politicalleaders 10 fi x Ker uuckv's problems.
Both DO NOT READ
Neither DO NOT READ
DK/Refused DO NOT READ

53

40

3
3

Despite the record breaking millions that Conway and his liberal allies have spent anacking Malt
Bevin, the race remains statistically tied. Voter's unwillingness to embrace an Obama liberal
and/or a Fraukfurt insider remain significant vulnerabi Ihies for Conway. Given the closeness of
the race and the strength of those two vulnerabilities, there is no question that if Bevin can
successfully make that case against Conway, he will win.

Demog!l!Phics of Likely Voter Respondents

Political Par

Reetstranon

Democrat
R~bl i can

Independent
Somethinc else
Refused
m I C/ TV
Race/Ethnicit
White

A frican A merican/ Black

Asian American
H i~n i c

Other
Refused

51
36
10
I

2
88
8

1
I

Gender

I Male

Female

48
52

A
e
-

18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
Refused

21
12
21
20
24
2

Re fOn
Louisville DMA
Lexil!&!0n DMA
Cinci nnati, OH OMA
Western Kentucky
Evansville, IN DMA
Padl/cah- C~ Girardeau, MO-Mf. Vernon, IL DMA
Bowlin Green DMA
Nashville, TN DMA

Easter n Kentucky
Hunti'!f!!-0n-Charleston, WV DMA
Tri Cities, TNI VA DMA
Knoxville, TN DMA
Mode
I Landline
Cell

33
29
8
22
7
7
5
3
7

5
I
I

70
30