NuclearDisarmamentIndia

June27,2014

India:NonNPTStatewithNuclearWeapons

EstimatedArsenalSize
Between90and110warheadsintotalinventory,thoughonlyaportionarebelievedtobedeliverable.[1]
ItisdisputedwhetherIndiahasdevelopedthermonuclearweapons.[2]
KeyDeliverySystems
IndiannucleardeterrencereliesprincipallyongravitybombsdeliveredbytheMirage2000H(Vajra),theJaguarISShamsherand/ortheSukhoiSu30.[3]
DiscussionsbetweenIndiaandFrancebeganin2012overtheIndianpurchaseof126nuclearcapableRafalejets,withatentativedeliverydateof20162017.[4]

Somelandbasedballisticmissilesarenuclearcapable,includingthefullyoperationalPrithviI(PI),theAgni1SRBMsandtheAgni2MRBM.[5]TheAgni3and
Agni4bothhaverangesupto3,500km,andthelongrange(upto5,000km)Agni5ICBMwastestedforthefirsttimeinApril2012.[6]InFebruary2013,India
disclosedthatdevelopmenthadbegunontheAgni6,alongrangenuclearcapablemissilewithMIRVcapabilities(multipleindependentlytargetablereentry
vehicle).[7]

TheIndiannavyisworkingtointegrateitstwoArihantclassnuclearpoweredsubmarines,equippedwiththenuclearcapableSagarika(K15)submarinelaunched
ballisticmissile,intothefleet,andexpectstohavea"modestseabaseddeterrence"by2016.[8]TheArihantisakeyelementinIndia'saspirationtopossessa
"nucleartriad"ofland,air,andseabasedforcesitsreactorisexpectedtogocriticalsometimeinthesummerof2013.[9]TheDhanushshipbasedmissilehad
twosuccessfultestfiringsinMarch2011andOctober2012itiscurrentlyoperational.[10]

Noinformationisavailableaboutnonstrategicweapons.
EstimatedDestructivePower
Yieldrangeofweapons:below15kt20kt.[11]
Totalyield:1Mt[12]
IndianofficialsclaimtohavehadasuccessfulthermonuclearbombtestinMay1998withayieldof4360kt,whilemostscholarsestimatethisfiguretohave
beenlower,someconcludingthatthetwostagedevicewasafailure.[13]
EstimatedMilitaryFissileMaterialStockpiles
AllIndiannuclearweaponsarebelievedtobeplutoniumbased.[14]
Weaponsgradeplutonium:estimated0.540.18tons.[15]
HEUstockpile:2.40.9tons.TheHEUisenrichedtoonly30%to45%U235(muchlessthanweaponsgrade)andisbelievedtobeusedfornuclearsubmarine
propulsion.[16]
DisarmamentandCommitmentstoReduceArsenalSize
OpposedtosigningtheTreatyontheNonProliferationofNuclearWeapons(NPT),whichitviewsasdiscriminatory.[17]

Haslongstatedthatitdesiresaworldfreeofnuclearweapons,buthasdevelopedweaponstobeonequalstandingwithotherworldpowers.[18]The1999Draft
NuclearDoctrineassertedthat"global,verifiable,andnondiscriminatorynucleardisarmamentisanationalsecurityobjective."[19]
FutureCommitments
Insupportofanondiscriminatory,universal,andverifiableFissileMaterialCutOffTreaty(FMCT).Doesnotwantthetreatytocoverexistingstockpiles.[20]
NuclearWeaponsRelatedPolicies
NuclearTestingPolicy
HasobservednucleartestingmoratoriumsinceMay1998.[21]
PartytothePartialTestBanTreaty(banningatmospheric,outerspace,andunderwatertesting).[22]
IndiahasnotsignedtheComprehensiveNuclearTestBanTreaty(CTBT).AlongwiththeNonAlignedMovement(NAM),Indiaisastrongadvocateforatime
bounddisarmamentcommitmentfromNWSandmayusethelackofacommitmentasareasontorefrainfromsigningtheCTBT.[23]
UseofNuclearWeapons
Pledgesnottobefirsttousenuclearweapons.Retaliationonlypolicy,basedonacredibleminimumdeterrent.[24]
NuclearWeaponsProductionCapacity

ReactorTechnology

TheIndiraGandhiCentreforAtomicResearch(IGCAR)hascompletedthedesignofa500MWePrototypeFastBreederReactorandisintheprocessof
constructingit[25],expectingittoachievefirstcriticalitybytheendof2014.Uponsuccessfulachievement,theIGCARplanstobuildsixfastbreederreactors,

greatlyincreasingitsplutoniumproductioncapacity.[26]
TheIGCARisalsosuccessfullyoperatingtheKAMINIReactor,theonlyoperationalreactorworldwidetouseU233fuel.[27]
IndiaisnearingcompletionofaseconduraniumenrichmentfacilityatitsRareMaterialsPlantinMysore.Thesitehasthepotentialtolaunchbysummer2015,
andspeculativeanalysishaspredictedthatitwillhavethecapacitytogeneratefuelsufficientforfivebombseachyear.Notonlycouldthisfacilitygenerate
approximatelytwicethenecessaryuraniumfuelneededforIndiasfuturefleetofsubmarines,italsohasthepotentialtoallowNewDelhitodevelopamore
powerfulclassofthermonuclearweapons.[28]
Sources:
[1]ShannonN.Kile,VitalyFedechenko,BharathGopalaswamy,andHansM.Kristensen,"Chapter7:WorldNuclearForces"inSIPRIYearbook2013,SIPRI,n.d.,p.
343,4June2013,www.sipri.orgHansM.KristensenandRobertS.Norris,"IndianNuclearForces,2012,"BulletinoftheAtomicScientists,Vol.68(4),July/August
2012,pp.96101,www.thebulletin.org.
[2]Varyingstudiesexistonthe1998"PokrhanII/OperationShakti"testthatsupposedlyfeaturedathermonucleardevice.See,forexample:CareySublette,"Whatare
theRealYieldsofIndia'sTest?"NuclearWeaponArchive,8November2001,www.nuclearweaponarchive.org.
[3]HansM.KristensenandRobertS.Norris,"IndianNuclearForces,2012,"BulletinoftheAtomicScientists,Vol.68(4),July/August2012,pp.96101,
www.thebulletin.org.
[4]"FranceSellsNuclearCapableAircrafttoIndia,"GlobalSecurityNewswire,7February2012,www.nti.org/gsnHansM.KristensenandRobertS.Norris,"Indian
NuclearForces,2012,"BulletinoftheAtomicScientists,Vol.68(4),July/August2012,pp.96101,www.thebulletin.orgTamirEshel,"RafaleDeliveriesCouldBeginin
20162017,"DefenseUpdate,18June2013,http://defenseupdate.com.
[5]M.VRamana,"India,"AssuringDestructionForever,ReachingCriticalWill,March2012,www.reachingcriticalwill.org.
[6]"IndiaTestsAdvancedNuclearReadyMissile,"GlobalSecurityNewswire,15November2011,www.nti.org/gsnM.VRamana,"India,"AssuringDestruction
Forever,ReachingCriticalWill,March2012,www.reachingcriticalwill.org"MutedGlobalResponseFollowsIndianLongRangeMissileTest,"GlobalSecurity
Newswire,20April2012,www.nti.org/gsn.
[7]RhikKundu,"AgniVIintheworkswilltakeoutseveraltargets,"TheTimesofIndia,10February2013.
[8]HansM.KristensenandRobertS.Norris,"IndianNuclearForces,2012,"BulletinoftheAtomicScientists,Vol.68(4),July/August2012,pp.96101,
www.thebulletin.orgShannonN.Kile,VitalyFedechenko,BharathGopalaswamy,andHansM.Kristensen,"Chapter7:WorldNuclearForces"inSIPRIYearbook
2011,SIPRI,n.d.,p.343,13June2011,www.sipri.orgJayMenon,"IndiaExpectsToHaveSubBasedNukesby201516,"AerospaceDailyandDefenceReport,30
April2013.
[9]"IndianNavyNearlyReadytoDeploySeaBasedNukes,CommanderSays,"GlobalSecurityNewswire,26June2012,www.nti.org/gsn"NavySettoComplete
NuclearTriad:Verma,"ExpressNewsService(NewDelhi),26June2012,www.indianexpress.comZacharyKeck,"China,India,&PakistanExpandNukeArsenals,"
TheDiplomatBlogs,5June2013,http://thediplomat.com.
[10]"ShipBasedDhanushMissileTestFired,"TheEconomicTimes,11March2011,www.articles.economictimes.indiatimes.comPeterCrail,"WorldwideBallistic
MissileInventories,"ArmsControlAssociation,updatedJanuary2012,www.armscontrol.org.
[11]GarethEvans,YorikoKawaguchieds.,"NuclearArsenals,2009,"EliminatingNuclearThreats:APracticalAgendaforGlobalPolicymakers,International
CommissiononNuclearNonproliferationandDisarmament:Canberra,2009,www.icnnd.org.
[12]ConsideringthedebateoverthesophisticationofIndia'snucleararsenal,thesenumbersaredebatable.GarethEvans,YorikoKawaguchieds.,"NuclearArsenals,
2009,"EliminatingNuclearThreats:APracticalAgendaforGlobalPolicymakers,InternationalCommissiononNuclearNonproliferationandDisarmament:Canberra,
2009,www.icnnd.org.
[13]CareySublette,"WhataretheRealYieldsofIndia'sTest?"NuclearWeaponArchive,8November2001,www.nuclearweaponarchive.orgM.VRamana,"India,"in
thepublicationAssuringDestructionForeverbyReachingCriticalWill,March2012,www.reachingcriticalwill.org.
[14]M.VRamana,"India,"inthepublicationAssuringDestructionForeverbyReachingCriticalWill,March2012,www.reachingcriticalwill.org.
[15]InternationalPanelonFissileMaterials,GlobalFissileMaterialReport2013,February2013,www.fissilematerials.org.
[16]InternationalPanelonFissileMaterials,GlobalFissileMaterialReport2013,February2013,www.fissilematerials.org.
[17]A.VinodKumar,"ReformingtheNPTtoincludeIndia,"BulletinoftheAtomicScientists,1May2010,www.thebulletin.org.
[18]ZiaMian,M.V.Ramana,R.Rajaraman,"India,"inthepublicationReducingandEliminatingNuclearWeapons:CountryPerspectivesontheChallengestoNuclear
Disarmament,InternationalPanelonFissileMaterials,May2010,www.fissilematerials.org.
[19]"India'sDraftNuclearDoctrine,"releasedfromNationalSecurityAdvisoryBoardonIndianNuclearDoctrine,accessedfromArmsControlToday,July/August1999,
www.armscontrol.orgReijiYoshida,"Abe,Singhinkstatementonnucleardeal,"TheJapanTimes,30May2013.
[20]"FMCT:Indiastickstostand,Pakdithers,"TheTimesofIndia,24September2010,www.articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.comSharonSquassoni,Andrew
Demkee,andJillMarieParillo,"BanningFissileMaterialProductionforNuclearWeapons:ProspectsforaTreaty(FMCT),"CongressionalResearchService(CRS)
ReportforCongress,14July2006,www.csis.org.
[21]SominiSangupta,"IndiaDebatesItsRighttoNuclearTesting,"TheNewYorkTimes,21April2007.
[22]India:InventoryofInternationalNonproliferationOrganizationsandRegimes,JamesMartinCenterforNonproliferationStudies,lastupdated18November2010,
cns.miis.edu.
[23]A.VinodKumar,"IndiaandtheCTBT:TheDebateinNewDelhi,"BulletinoftheAtomicScientists:WebEdition,4November2009,www.thebulletin.orgStatement
byH.E.IGustiAgungWesakaPujaonbehalfoftheNonAlignedMovementattheFirstSessionofthePreparatoryCommitteeforthe2015ReviewConference,Cluster
1:NuclearDisarmamentandSecurityAssurances,4May2012,www.reachingcriticalwill.com.
[24]NirupamaRao,"AddressbyForeignSecretaryatNationalDefenceCollegeon'ChallengesinIndia'sForeignPolicy,'"IndianMinistryofExternalAffairs,19
November2010,www.mea.gov.in"India'sDraftNuclearDoctrine,"releasedfromNationalSecurityAdvisoryBoardonIndianNuclearDoctrine,sourcedfromArms
ControlToday,July/August1999,www.armscontrol.org.
[25]"FastReactorsforEnergySecurity,"IndiraGandhiCentreforAtomicResearch,DepartmentofAtomicEnergy,GovernmentofIndia,updated24June,2014,
www.igcar.ernet.in.
[26]"India,"pagemaintainedbyStockholmInternationalPeaceResearchInstitute(SIPRI),copyright2014,www.sipri.org.
[27]"FastReactorsforEnergySecurity,"IndiraGandhiCentreforAtomicResearch,DepartmentofAtomicEnergy,GovernmentofIndia,updated24June,2014.
www.igcar.ernet.in.
[28]"IndiasAnticipatedUraniumBoostPromptsAlarminIslamabad,"GlobalSecurityNewswire,20June,2014,www.nti.org.
Critical
Astatewherethenumberofneutronsineachperiodoftime,orgeneration,remainsconstant.Whenanuclearreactorissteadystate,oroperatingatnormalpower
levelsforextendedperiodsoftime,itisinthisstate.
Submarinelaunchedballisticmissile(SLBM)
Aballisticmissilethatiscarriedonandlaunchedfromasubmarine.

Intercontinentalballisticmissile(ICBM)
Aballisticmissilewitharangegreaterthan5,500km.Seeentryfor"ballisticmissile".
Thermonuclearweapon
Anuclearweaponinwhichthefusionoflightnuclei,suchasdeuteriumandtritium,leadstoasignificantlyhigherexplosiveyieldthaninaregularfissionweapon.
Thermonuclearweaponsaresometimesreferredtoasstagedweapons,becausetheinitialfissionreaction(thefirststage)createstheconditionunderwhichthe
thermonuclearreactioncanoccur(thesecondstage).Alsoarchaicallyreferredtoasahydrogenbomb.
ReentryVehicle(RV)
Anuclearwarheadonaballisticmissilespeciallydesignedtoreentertheearth'satmosphereintheterminalportionofthemissile'strajectory.
Tacticalnuclearweapons
Shortrangenuclearweapons,suchasartilleryshells,bombs,andshortrangemissiles,deployedforuseinbattlefieldoperations.
Highlyenricheduranium(HEU)
Referstouraniumwithaconcentrationofmorethan20%oftheisotopeU235.Achievedviatheprocessofenrichment.Seeentryfor"enricheduranium".
Plutonium(Pu)
Atransuranicelementwithatomicnumber94,producedwhenuraniumisirradiatedinareactor.Itisusedprimarilyinnuclearweaponsand,alongwithuranium,in
mixedoxide(MOX)fuel.Plutonium239,afissileisotope,isthemostsuitableisotopeforuseinnuclearweapons.
Enricheduranium
UraniumwithanincreasedconcentrationoftheisotopeU235,relativetonaturaluranium.Naturaluraniumcontains0.7percentU235,whereasnuclearweapons
typicallyrequireuraniumenrichedtoveryhighlevels(seethedefinitionsforhighlyenricheduraniumandweaponsgrade).Nuclearpowerplantfueltypicallyuses
uraniumenrichedto3to5percentU235,materialthatisnotsufficientlyenrichedtobeusedfornuclearweapons.
TreatyontheNonProliferationofNuclearWeapons(NPT)
Signedin1968,theTreatyontheNonProliferationofNuclearWeapons(NPT)isthemostwidelyadheredtointernationalsecurityagreement.Thethreepillarsofthe
NPTarenucleardisarmament,nonproliferation,andpeacefulusesofnuclearenergy.ArticleVIoftheNPTcommitsstatespossessingnuclearweaponstonegotiatein
goodfaithtowardhaltingthearmsraceandthecompleteeliminationofnuclearweapons.TheTreatystipulatesthatnonnuclearweaponstateswillnotseektoacquire
nuclearweapons,andwillacceptInternationalAtomicEnergyAgencysafeguardsontheirnuclearactivities,whilenuclearweaponstatescommitnottotransfernuclear
weaponstootherstates.Allstateshavearighttothepeacefuluseofnuclearenergy,andshouldassistoneanotherinitsdevelopment.TheNPTprovidesfor
conferencesofmemberstatestoreviewtreatyimplementationatfiveyearintervals.Initiallyofa25yearduration,theNPTwasextendedindefinitelyin1995.For
additionalinformation,seetheNPT.
PartialTestBanTreaty(PTBT)
AlsoknownastheLimitedTestBanTreaty(LTBT),theTreatyBanningNuclearWeaponsTestsintheAtmosphere,inOuterSpaceandUnderWaterprohibitsnuclear
weaponstests"oranyothernuclearexplosion"intheatmosphere,inouterspace,andunderwater.Whilethetreatydoesnotbantestsunderground,itdoesprohibit
nuclearexplosionsinthisenvironmentiftheycause"radioactivedebristobepresentoutsidetheterritoriallimitsoftheStateunderwhosejurisdictionorcontrol"the
explosionswereconducted.Thetreatyisofunlimitedduration.Foradditionalinformation,seethePTBT.
FissileMaterialCutoffTreaty(FMCT)
TreatycurrentlyunderdiscussionintheConferenceonDisarmament(CD)toendtheproductionofweaponsusablefissilematerial(highlyenricheduraniumand
plutonium)fornuclearweapons.Foradditionalinformation,seetheFMCT.
NonAlignedMovement(NAM)
TheNonAlignedMovementwasformedduringtheColdWarasanorganizationofstatesthatdidnotseektoformallyalignthemselveswitheithertheUnitedStatesor
theSovietUnion,butsoughttoremainindependentorneutral.NAMidentifiestherightofindependentjudgment,thestruggleagainstimperialismandneocolonialism,
andtheuseofmoderationinrelationswithallbigpowersasthethreebasicelementsthathaveinfluenceditsapproach.Foradditionalinformation,seetheNAM.
ComprehensiveNuclearTestBanTreaty(CTBT)
Openedforsignaturein1996attheUNGeneralAssembly,theCTBTprohibitsallnucleartestingifitentersintoforce.ThetreatyestablishestheComprehensiveTest
BanTreatyOrganization(CTBTO)toensuretheimplementationofitsprovisionsandverifycompliancethroughaglobalmonitoringsystemuponentryintoforce.
Pendingthetreatysentryintoforce,thePreparatoryCommissionoftheCTBTOischargedwithestablishingtheInternationalMonitoringSystem(IMS)andpromoting
treatyratifications.CTBTentryintoforceiscontingentonratificationby44AnnexIIstates.Foradditionalinformation,seetheCTBT.
Disarmament
Thoughthereisnoagreeduponlegaldefinitionofwhatdisarmamententailswithinthecontextofinternationalagreements,ageneraldefinitionistheprocessofreducing
thequantityand/orcapabilitiesofmilitaryweaponsand/ormilitaryforces.

ThismaterialisproducedindependentlyforNTIbytheJamesMartinCenterforNonproliferationStudiesattheMontereyInstituteofInternationalStudiesanddoesnot

necessarilyreflecttheopinionsofandhasnotbeenindependentlyverifiedbyNTIoritsdirectors,officers,employees,oragents.