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Профессиональный Документы
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Others*
14%
Energy 69%
CO2 90%
Agriculture
11%
Industrial
processes 6%
CH4 9%
N2O 1%
Within the energy sector1, CO2 resulting from the oxidation of carbon in fuels during combustion dominates the total GHG emissions.
CO2 from energy represents about three quarters of
the anthropogenic GHG emissions for Annex I2 countries, and almost 70% of global emissions. This percentage varies greatly by country, due to diverse
national structures.
Increasing demand for energy comes from worldwide
economic growth and development. Global total primary energy supply (TPES) more than doubled between 1971 and 2012, mainly relying on fossil fuels
(Figure 2).
Figure 2. World primary energy supply*
GtCO2
35
30
25
20
15
14
12
18%
10
8
14%
82%
4
2
10
Gtoe
the share of fossil fuels within the world energy supply is relatively unchanged over the past 41 years. In
2012, fossil sources accounted for 82% of the global
TPES.
0
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
Key point: Since 1870, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion have risen exponentially.
86%
0
1971
2012
Fossil
Non f ossil
300
60%
200
100
50%
0
-100
40%
-200
-300
Coal
Oil
Gas
Annex I
Other
Total
Non-Annex I
20%
Key point: In 2012, emissions from coal and oil increased in non-Annex I countries and decreased in
Annex I countries.
Emissions by fuel
Although coal represented 29% of the world TPES in
2012, it accounted for 44% of the global CO2 emissions due to its heavy carbon content per unit of energy released, and to the fact that 18% of the TPES
derives from carbon-neutral fuels (Figure 5). As
compared to gas, coal is nearly twice as emission
intensive on average.4
Figure 5. World primary energy supply and
CO2 emissions: shares by fuel in 2012
32%
29%
21%
18%
82%
CO2
CO
CO
2 2
0%
35%
44%
20%
40%
Oil
Coal
60%
Gas
20%
80%
10%
1971
1976
1981
1986
Coal
1991
1996
Oil
2001
2006
2012
Gas
Emissions by region
Percent share
TPES
30%
1%
100%
Other*
Emissions by sector
Two sectors produced nearly two-thirds of global CO2
emissions in 2012: electricity and heat generation, by
far the largest, accounted for 42%, while transport
accounted for 23% (Figure 9).
% change
World
Af rica
Residential
6%
Middle East
Latin America
Transport
1%
Other *
9%
Industry
18%
China *
Annex II Asia Oceania
Industry
20%
Other
Electricity and
heat 42%
Residential
11%
Annex II Europe
Other *
12%
Transport
23%
Annex I EIT
Annex II North America
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
10
China
United States
India
Key point: Two sectors combined, generation of electricity and heat and transport, represented nearly
two-thirds of global emissions in 2012.
Generation of electricity and heat worldwide relies
heavily on coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel.
Countries such as Australia, China, India, Poland and
South Africa produce over two-thirds of their electricity and heat through the combustion of coal.
Figure 10. CO2 emissions from electricity
and heat generation*
Russian Federation
Japan
GtCO2
Germany
14
Korea
12
Canada
Islamic Republic of Iran
Saudi Arabia
Other
10
Top 10 total:
World total:
21.0 GtCO2
31.7 GtCO2
Gas
Oil
Coal
4
2
0
1990
2012
Between 2011 and 2012, CO2 emissions from electricity and heat increased by 1.8%, faster than total emissions. While the share of oil in electricity and heat
emissions has declined steadily since 1990, the share
of gas increased slightly, and the share of coal increased significantly, from 65% in 1990 to 72% in
2012 (Figure 10). Carbon intensity developments for
this sector will strongly depend on the fuel mix used to
generate electricity, including the share of non-emitting
sources, such as renewables and nuclear, as well as on
the potential penetration of CCS technologies.
As for transport, the fast emissions growth was driven by
emissions from the road sector, which increased by 64%
since 1990 and accounted for about three quarters of
transport emissions in 2012 (Figure 11). It is interesting
to note that despite efforts to limit emissions from international transport, emissions from marine and aviation
bunkers, 66% and 80% higher in 2012 than in 1990 respectively, grew even faster than those from road.
Figure 11. CO2 emissions from transport
(Figure 12). For example, among the five largest emitters, the levels of per-capita emissions were very diverse, ranging from 1.6 tCO2 for India and 6.1 tCO2 for
China to 16.1 tCO2 for the United States. On average,
industrialised countries emit far larger amounts of CO2
per capita than developing countries. The lowest levels
worldwide are in Asia excluding China and in Africa.
Figure 12. CO2 emissions per capita
by major world regions
tCO2 per capita
World
GtCO2
Africa
Aviation bunkers
10
2012
Marine bunkers
15
20
1990
4
3
Domestic aviation
Domestic navigation
Road
0
1990
2012
China **
Annex I EIT
Other
Middle East
Annex II North America
Annex II Asia Oceania
Asia excluding China
1.8
1.6
Russian Federation
1.4
China
1.2
1
United States
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
India
0
0
Japan
5
Africa
10
15
20
25
Latin America
1990
Annex II Europe
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
2012
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1990
* The size of the circle represents the total CO2 emissions from
the country in that year.
Key point: All top five emitters reduced their emissions per unit of GDP between 1990 and 2012, while
emissions per capita showed contrasting trends.
2012
1993
1996
1999
CO2 emissions
GDP/population
CO2/TPES (ESCII)
2002
2005
2008
2012
Population
TPES/GDP
Key point: Despite some decoupling between economic growth and energy use, increasing wealth and
population, with an unchanged carbon intensity of the
mix, drove dramatic CO2 emissions increases
mix10, the combined growth in population (33%) and
in per capita GDP (57%) led to a dramatic increase in
global CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2012.
Such behaviour varies greatly among countries and
regions. Understanding the factors driving CO2 emissions trends will be essential to designing sound and
effective policies aiming at emissions reductions.
10. Also known, in its index form, as Energy Sector Carbon Intensity Index
(ESCII), as in the IEA publication Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2014.
Developing a low-carbon
world
Traditionally, industrialised countries have emitted
the large majority of anthropogenic greenhouse gases
(GHGs). More recently, shares of developing country
emissions surpassed those of industrialised countries,
and have kept rising very rapidly. To shift towards a
low-carbon world, mitigation efforts must occur
across all countries: decarbonising the energy supplies
of industrialised countries, and shifting developing
countries onto a low-carbon development path.
The first binding commitments to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions were set under the Kyoto Protocols
first commitment period (2008-12). Participating industrialised countries were required (as a group) to
curb domestic emissions by about 5% relative to 1990
over this period. Thirty-eight countries have also
agreed to take commitments under a second commitment period which will run from 2013 to 2020. The
amendments to the Kyoto Protocol bringing the second commitment period into force require ratification
by 144 countries (two-thirds of those participating); as
of September 2014 only 18 have ratified.
Countries comply with their Kyoto Protocol targets by
reducing emissions from fossil fuel combustion, reducing emission in other sectors (i.e. land-use or direct industrial emissions), or through use of the Kyoto
Protocols flexible mechanisms by which industrialised countries can earn emission credits from emissions reduction projects in participating developing
countries and economies in transition (EITs).
Data on CO2 emissions from fuel combustion are now
available for the Kyoto Protocols first commitment
period (Table 1). According to IEA estimates, in
2012, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion across all
Parties with Kyoto Protocol targets were 14% below
1990 levels. Emissions in the EU-15 were 8% below
1990 levels, in line with their economy-wide goal of
an 8% reduction. Some industrialised countries have
seen significant increases, led by Australia (+48%),
New Zealand (+44%)11 and Spain (30%). To comply
11. Note that for some countries (e.g. Australia and New Zealand), the
share of non-CO2 emissions may be very significant. Therefore, the
trend in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion may differ substantially
from the trend in total greenhouse gas emissions.
(1)
Table 1. World CO2 emissions from fuel combustion and Kyoto Protocol targets
1990
MtCO2
2012
MtCO2
KYOTO PARTIES
WITH TARGETS (1)
8,339.6
7,157.0
-14.2%
Europe
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France (3)
Germany
Greece
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
European Union - 15
3,154.5
56.4
107.9
50.6
54.4
352.8
949.7
70.1
1.9
30.6
397.4
10.4
155.8
28.3
39.4
205.2
52.8
41.6
549.3
3,082.7
2,906.4
64.7
104.6
37.1
49.4
333.9
755.3
77.5
1.8
35.5
374.8
10.2
173.8
36.2
45.9
266.6
40.4
41.3
457.5
2,827.1
-7.9%
14.8%
-3.1%
-26.7%
-9.1%
-5.4%
-20.5%
10.5%
-2.5%
16.3%
-5.7%
-1.3%
11.5%
27.9%
16.4%
29.9%
-23.4%
-0.8%
-16.7%
-8.3%
Asia Oceania
Australia
Japan
New Zealand
1,339.5
260.5
1,056.7
22.3
1,641.7
386.3
1,223.3
32.1
22.6%
48.3%
15.8%
44.0%
2,608.8
44.3
17.2
107.8
16.3
43.6
7.0
13.3
293.8
79.0
1,659.0
31.9
14.6
281.1
-32.2%
-40.9%
-20.1%
-27.6%
-54.3%
-34.4%
-62.4%
-59.8%
-14.1%
-52.9%
-23.9%
-43.8%
9.6%
-59.1%
% change
90-12
1990
MtCO2
2012
MtCO2
12,014.7
23,497.4
95.6%
5,550.9
124.8
428.2
2.3
126.9
4,868.7
5,983.9
71.1
533.7
2.5
302.4
5,074.1
7.8%
-43.0%
24.6%
10.4%
138.3%
4.2%
-8%
-6%
none
none
-7%
Other Regions
6,352.7
Africa
545.0
Middle East
549.9
N-OECD Eur. & Eurasia (4)
630.0
Latin America (4)
842.5
1,507.5
Asia (excl. China) (4)
China
2,277.7
17,334.0
1,032.4
1,647.1
528.8
1,583.3
4,291.4
8,250.8
172.9%
89.4%
199.5%
-16.1%
87.9%
184.7%
262.2%
none
none
none
none
none
none
none
363.2
256.3
602.2
477.8
65.8%
86.4%
20,973.9
31,734.3
51.3%
Kyoto
Target
-4.6% (2) OTHER COUNTRIES
-13%
-7.5%
-21%
0%
0%
-21%
+25%
+10%
+13%
-6.5%
-28%
-6%
+1%
+27%
+15%
+4%
-8%
-12.5%
-8%
Non-participating
Annex I Parties
Belarus
Canada (1)
Malta
Turkey
United States
% change
90-12
Kyoto
Target
+8% GtCO2
-6% 35
0%
30
-8%
-5%
-8%
-8%
-6%
-8%
-8%
-6%
-8%
0%
-8%
-8%
0%
25
International Bunkers
20
Non-Annex I Parties
15
Non-Participating Annex I Parties
10
5
0
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2012
(1) On 15 December 2011, Canada withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol. This action became effective for Canada on 15 December 2012.
(2) The actual country targets apply to a basket of six greenhouse gases and allow sinks and international credits to be used for
compliance. The overall "Kyoto target" is estimated for this publication by applying the country targets to IEA data for CO2 emissions
from fuel combustion, and is only shown as an indication. The overall target for the combined EU-15 under the Protocol is -8%, but the
member countries have agreed on a burden-sharing arrangement as listed.
(3) Emissions from Monaco are included with France.
(4) Composition of regions differs from elsewhere in this publication to take into account countries that are not Kyoto Parties.
(5) The Kyoto target is calculated as percentage of the 1990 CO2 emissions from fuel combustion only, therefore it does not represent
the total target for the six-gas basket. This assumes that the reduction targets are spread equally across all gases.
Key point: The existing targets under the Kyoto Protocol are not sufficiently comprehensive to lead to reductions
in global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion.
The nationally-determined targets will be complemented by an agreed framework for measuring, reporting and verifying emissions, and accounting for
achievement of targets, and by enhanced actions on
adaptation, technology development and on the provision of financial resources. While obligations are to
start from 2020, emissions from the energy sector
need to peak by 2020 if there is to be a reasonable
chance of limiting temperature rise to below 2C
(IEA, 2012). This highlights the need for an ambitious
start point in 2020, but also the importance of complementary initiatives outside the UNFCCC that can
constrain emissions in the period up to 2020.
References
IPCC (2007), Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (1996 IPCC
Guidelines), IPCC, Bracknell, UK.
World Bank (2014), State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2014, World Bank, Washington D.C.
Outlook
2012