Question 1

A survey is carried out by the planning department to determine the distribution

of household size in a certain city. They draw a simple random sample of 1,000
households; but after several visits, the interviewers find people at home in only
853 of the sample households. Rather than face such a high non-response rate,
the planners draw a second batch of households, and use the first 147
completed interviews in the second batch to bring the sample up to its planned
strength of 1,000 households. They count 3,087 people in these 1000
households, and estimate the average household size in the city to be about 3.1
persons. Is this estimate likely to be too low, too high or about right? Explain.
Sampling takes into account those households that they could get to do the
survey
Second batch only households that were able to be contacted were used
Likely that household size is overestimated
At least 1 person at home for large households vs small households ( 1
person not likely to have anyone at home)
Question 2
The National Automobile Associations (NAA) Used Car Buyers Guide is a
compilation of consumer-oriented information designed to reduce the frustration
and uncertainty often associated with buying a used car. It is published annually
and includes frequency of repair records, average annual mechanical repair cost
estimates, and statistics detailing owner satisfaction all these by make, model,
and model year. A questionnaire is distributed to all NAA members through
consumer magazines, random mailings, newspaper ads, and public press
release. A total of 15,446 responses were received and analyzed this year. You
are the spokesperson for a car manufacturer that is not rated well in this guide. A
reporter is doing a story on the quality of cars, and will use NAAs survey. Your
companys comments on the survey are sought. Prepare a statement clearly and
thoughtfully expressing your companys reservations about the survey results.

Question 3 (Chapter 5)
Group Work 25 min
Presentation and Discussion 20 min
A student S wishes to join the tennis club in his school. As a condition for the
acceptance to the club, S has to play two club members A and B in three games,
knowing that B is a much stronger player than A. S must win against both A and
B in two successive games in order to be accepted. He can choose one of the two
sequences: playing A-B-A or B-A-B. Let a and b denote the probabilities of S
beating A and B respectively in a game.
i.

Which of the two quantities a and b is larger? Why? How can S

determine the values of a and b in practice?
A is likely to be larger than B, as A is a weaker player (as stated in the
question) and hence it is more likely for S to win A.

Take a sample of say 5 games, and take the probability of A winning

the match to B winning the match over the total number of matches
Repeated trials
How fresh the player is rest until next game
ii.

Without computing any probability, do you think S has a higher chance

to be accepted to the club by choosing one sequence over the other?
It is likely that S has a higher chance of being accepted into the team if
he choses the first sequence, based on the fact that S may have a
likelihood of winning the 2 matches against A.

iii.

What is the probability that S gets acceptance to the club by playing

the A-B-A sequence? State the probability rules that you apply and
assumptions that you make in the computation.
P(A|B) = P(ANB) / P(B)
Multiplication rule because both events are independent of each other
(addition & Product Rule)
P(S winning A-B) + P (S losing to A then winning B-A)

iv.

By computing the probability that S gets acceptance to the club by

playing the B-A-B sequence and comparing with the answer of (iii), can
you conclude which sequence between A-B-A and B-A-B will give S a
higher chance to be accepted to the club? Justify your answer.
P(B|A) = P(BNA) / P(A)

v.

If your answers to (ii) and (iv) are different, how would you reconcile it?