E.

06-07

Social Issues

Tuesday
Text : Danny (Source: S-file)

Photos : Sing Tao, Internet

Ageing population
a global concern
Earths human inhabitants are getting older, creating
ti bi
big challenges.
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A
Are governments
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around the world doing enough to forestall the anticipated problems stemming from
this possibly irreversible trend or are we destined to become a grey planet?

CCORDING to the United Nations, the proportion of people

aged 60 or over is growing faster than any other age group. That
is because people are living longer, and
birth rates are declining.
The ageing process is rapid. Between 2000
and 2050, the number of people aged 60 and
over is expected to increase from 605 million to
2 billion, boosting their proportion of the general
population from 11 percent to 22 percent.
Some see population ageing as a testimony
to better public health and the success of
socioeconomic development.
h
iin population
l ti
But it does not detract from the fact that such a change
composition calls for major shifts in public policy.

3 December 2013

The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a nonprofit

organisation based in Washington DC in the US, calls this demographic
transformation unprecedented and stunning.
To put the matter in perspective, CSIS observes
that, For most of human history, the elderly only
comprised a tiny fraction of the population, never
more than 3 or 4 percent until about a century
ago.
In the developed world today, it notes, the
proportion has risen to about 15 percent of the
population, and this is projected to further rise to
25 percent by around mid-century.
Th iis jjust the
h average. In some fast-ageing countries, the proportion
That
will go up even more to 35 percent for European countries and 40 percent
in Japan, CSIC notes.
Other reports estimate that by 2050, there will be 64 countries with
people aged 60 and over comprising over 30 percent of their respective
populations.
The China News Service reports that in 2000, the 60-and-above
age group was larger than the five-and-below group, and by 2050,
the former group will be greater in number than persons aged
15 and below.

Hong Kongs ageing problem

Key ideas

LIKE the rest of the world, Hong Kong is also facing pressing issues caused
by an ageing population.

to population ageing, and this demographic change

While the subject of an ageing population has been discussed locally for
a long time, the Hong Kong community has yet to come to grips with the
gravity of its ramifications.

burdens on society, and this will be aggravated by a

POPULATION ageing is pervasive. It is a global phenomenon affecting

every man, woman and child, as the problems it poses touch every facet of
society.

Committee chairman and Chief Secretary for Administration Carrie Lam

Cheng Yuet-ngor observes, Population policy has been continually placed
in the public domain. But the significance of our demographic challenges
and their implications on our socio-economic development have yet to be
fully appreciated and thoroughly deliberated in the community.

Economically, population ageing will have an impact on economic

growth, savings, investment and consumption, labour markets, pensions,
taxation and intergenerational transfers.

How bad is the situation? Lam says, It is anticipated that by 2041,

almost one in three in Hong Kongs population will be aged 65 or above,
and our labour force will start to decline in 2018.

Challenges ahead

Longer life expectancy and lower birth rates have led

The Steering Committee on Population Policy (SCPP) has just started

a four-month consultation on ways to deal with the situation, and citizens
have until late February 2014 to express their opinions.

is happening in most countries around the world. A

bigger elderly group creates healthcare and welfare
shrinking working population. Finding ways to tackle
these is an urgent task for public administrators.

Did you know?

Median age is the age that divides a population into
two numerically equal groups; that is, half the people
are younger than this age, and half are older. The
worlds median age now is 26 years and, by 2050, it is
expected to increase to 36 years.

As a result, the labour force participation rate,

or the percentage of people who are working, will
drop from 58.8 percent in 2012 to 49.5 percent in
2041, meaning a shrinking working population.

Nikkei Inc reports that many Asian

countries are beset by increasing welfare
costs and labour shortages due to population
ageing, and governments in the region
are exploring the possibility of creating
employment for older people.

Critical questions

This will, in turn, increase the dependency

ratio from 355 dependent persons per 1,000
working-age persons in 2012 to 712 per 1,000 by
2041. Put simply, fewer people will be carrying the
weight of more.

Malaysia, for example, raised its statutory

retirement age from 55 to 60 in July; South
Korea did the same in April, and enterprises
are being given time to absorb the change in
stages.
h and
d when
h to raise
i iits reSingapore, meanwhile, is discussing whether
employment age from 65 to 67. The move, if adopted, will allow the older
generation to stay longer in the workforce.
Socially, an ageing population affects health and healthcare, family
composition and living arrangements, as well as housing and migration.
Peoples health deteriorates with ageing and more elderly people in the
population means a greater demand for long-term care.

1. Do you think the strategies proposed by the

government could effectively deal with problems
caused by an ageing population?
2. Do you have any new suggestion as to how to tackle

An ageing population will further compress

our already narrow tax base, leading to increased
bli expenditure,
dit L
public
Lam warns.

these problems?

Clearly, population ageing is an issue that needs to be tackled

immediately. And the CSIS succinctly sums up the situation. We live in
an era of many challenges, from global warming to global terrorism. But
few are as certain as global ageing and few are as likely to have such a
large and enduring impact on government budgets, living standards, and the
future global economic and geopolitical order.

References
1. Hong Kong Population Projection 2012 -2041
www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/
B1120015052012XXXXB0100.pdf
2. Global Ageing Preparedness Index

HK population projections (2011-2041) and policy responses

(Mid year)
Population (million)
Annual average rate of increase
Percentage of population
0-14
15-64
65 and above
Median age

2011
7.0716
0.6%

2016
7.3705
0.8%

2021
7.662
0.8%

2026
7.9371
0.7%

http://csis.org/publication/global-aging-

2031
8.1609
0.6%

2036
8.3372
0.4%

preparedness-index

2041
8.469
0.3%

3. World Population Ageing 1950 -2050

www.un.org/esa/population/publications/
worldageing19502050/

12%
75%
13%
41.7

11%
73%
16%
43.4

11%
70%
19%
45.1

11%
66%
23%
46.3

10%
63%
26%
47.7

10%
62%
29%
48.9

9%
61%
30%
49.9

The government is proposing five policy strategies to deal with the challenges caused by the above demographic
changes:
(a) increase the quantity of the labour force by drawing more people into the labour market;
(b) enhance the quality of the labour force by improving education and training and minimising skills mismatch;
(c) build up human capital with a more proactive policy and targeted approach to attract more talent from
overseas and the mainland. Consider a more effective importation of labour system without jeopardising the
interests of local workers;
(d) foster a supportive environment for childbearing for young couples; and
(e) build an age-friendly environment, promote active ageing and develop the silver hair market.

Is an ageing population a burden to the world?

Vocabulary

irreversible (adj)

composition (n)

demographic (adj)

pervasive (adj)

deteriorate (v)

gravity (n)

ramification (n)

deliberate (v)