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org/)
1.
2.
3.
4.
Time Factor
5.
Inflation
6.
Exports
7.
Policy environment
8.
Labour
9.
2.
10.
11.
Cold storage
2.
Supply lines
3.
Land Leasing
4.
Non-farm Employment
5.
12.
MSME
13.
Regional imbalance
14.
Infrastructure Development
1.
2.
3.
15.
16.
Energy Economy
17.
1.
2.
Electricity
3.
4.
Coal production
5.
6.
Nuke
7.
Solar
8.
Hydro
Water price
2.
Tubewells
3.
Urbanization
18.
Environment Protection
19.
Corruption
20.
Government schemes
21.
Conclusion
This is not really an article, just compilation of some important fodder material for GS, essay,
group discussion and interview.
Often we hear the newspaper columnists and TV-debatewallas talking
if India wants 9% growth then it should xyz
if India wants 4% growth in agriculture then it should do xyz
So, let us make a list on what should be done.
benefit from 9% GDP growth. + The fruits of Growth should be spread all over India and
should not get concentrated in a few big states only.
Time Factor
Development requires time and patience. For example, if Government takes step to
improve education for the poor kids.
but the impact will only be reflected in actual income earning much later (When they grow
up and start earning).
So, even when policies are moving in the right direction, the results may only be evident
much later.
Ination
A moderate level of inflation, is unavoidable for a growing economy.
but when inflation beyond this tolerable level usually put at 5 percent to 6 percent, then itll
start damaging the overall growth and inclusiveness (of poor people.)
Inflation has been well above this level in the past two years and while India is not the only
emerging market country experiencing this problem.
But inflation in India has been higher than in most other countries
High rates of inflation in food prices, especially vegetables, fruits, milk, eggs, reflected in
double digit rates of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the past two
years
Main reasons for inflation in India
1. Rise in global prices of crude oil, foodgrains and metals.
2. domestic supply constraints in the food economy other than foodgrains.
3. High Fiscal deficit
Fixing ination
Monetary policy is the traditional instrument for dealing with overall inflation,
Last two years, RBI gradually tightened the monetary policy, but it can be effective only if it
is supported by appropriate fiscal policy.(i.e. steps by Government)
Exports
India has become a more open economy in the post-LPG Era. But It is still less dependent on
export demand than other emerging market countries
Problem: How India can actually expect to grow faster in an environment in which export
demand will be weaker. (because of slowdown in US and EU).
Answer: even if export demand from industrialised countries is weaker, many emerging
market countries are projected to grow more rapidly. (Brazil, South East Asia etc.)
So, if we target these fast growing markets our export performance could be improved.
Traditionally, we have viewed current account deficits of around 2 percent of GDP as
comfortable.
current account deficit in 2010-11 was already around 2.5 percent of GDP
Policy environment
India has only recently begun to attract global capital and given the size of the economy, and
its perceived high growth potential,
If Indian Governments policy towards FDI is seen to be supportive, then India will remain an
attractive investment destination for coming years.
But there is also a situation when but investment does not take place even after allowing
FDI, relaxing environment laws etc. simply because entrepreneurs do not find investment
opportunities attractive, i e, animal spirits are missing.
Therefore, Government needs to create an overall policy environment conductive for
investment (not just FDI but also infrastructure, labor laws etc.)
Labour
In the coming years, working age population in India will increase.
At the same in the industrialised countries, and also in China, it will be going down.
This situation can work as a demographic dividend only if
1. sufficient investment is taking place to generate the GDP growth (and thus employment) to
The present Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee (APMC) Acts prevent the private
sector buyers from dealing directly with producers.
State Governments must amend these acts.
Land Leasing
state governments is the reform of laws relating to leasing of land.
When rural population increase, the farm holdings are subdivided and become uneconomic.
The very small and marginal farmers should lease out their tiny land to more viable farmers,
and move into other sectors for better employment.
But small farmers will do it only if they felt that they could lease out their land and get it back
when they want.
Yet, leasing is not legal in some states. Where it is allowed, the law is biased towards the
tenant (Someone who pays rent to use land).
So state Governments should also amend the laws accordingly.
Non-farm Employment
In manufacturing sector, the corporates make huge profit even after giving salaries to the
employees. And much of this profit is reinvested for research and Development of new
products. (e.g. Apples iphone 5) and in expansion (e.g. Tata making new automobile plant in
some state)
Therefore, manufacture and service sector continues to grow, because new products are
created, new demand is generated, new employment is generated.
But Productivity in agriculture is low and too many people are employed in it. So after paying
for seeds, farm-labourers, even a big farmer doesnt have enough extra-money/profit left,
which he can use to drastically change his farming practice (like buying big farming
equipments from US, importing best hybrid quality seeds from top company etc.)
Therefore Government should focus on two things:
1. land consolidation : small farmers should lease their land to big farmers/ cooperative
farming.
2. move people out of the agro-sector.
This is actually necessary to reduce the present underemployment/ disguised
unemployment in agriculture and increase real wages in this sector.
Agriculture growthwill itself give rise to new demands for non-agricultural services and
generate employment in agriculture-related sectors such as modernised marketing and
agro-processing activity.
Change the focus
At present, Governments policy/ attitude is that if give the farmers huge subsidies in
electricity, seeds, and loans, then agro-productivity will automatically increase.
But Government should focus more on changing in farming practices, introducing new
technology. So that farmers become less dependent on subsidies in the long run.
MSME
If Government wants to move people out of agriculture, then Micro, small and medium
enterprises (MSME), are generally more labour absorbing,
MSME are also potential seedbeds for innovation and entrepreneurship.
So Government must provide policy environment to encourage the growth of these
industries and this does not mean sops and subsidies. But instead, give them
first class infrastructure which includes both reliable electricity supply at reasonable cost.
Regional imbalance
Northern states are industrially backward at present, but have high labour supply.
Hence there is lot of inter-state migration.
So the respective Governments must improve the employment opportunites right within
their states.
How? By attracting both national and international companies in their states.
But those companies will come only if there is right atmosphere and environment in the
state. That means
1. No naxalite problem
2. No kidnapping and extortions.
3. Sufficient electricity and water supply
4. Quick land acquisition and environment clearnaces.
5. Rationalise our labour laws to give employers more flexibility to shed labour when faced
with a downturn.
Infrastructure Development
infrastructure sectors = power, roads, ports, airports, and railways
some sectors, e g, telecommunications, achieving higher levels of investment than projected,
while others achieved significantly less.
For 9% growth, we need total investment of $1 trillion over the Twelfth Plan period.
But how to finance infrastructure projects? Two problems
Energy Economy
global supply of crude oil = will remain tighter in the years ahead, and therefore crude oil
price will also remain high
Therefore we must increase domestic supply of energy from both conventional and nononventional resources.
Reducing Energy Intensity
LPG and Kerosene
Petrol price is deregulated.
LPG and kerosene prices remain under administrative control and are currently set well
below global levels
Government doesnt want to raise kerosene and LPG prices because of the impact on
vulnerable groups,
but it must be recognised that the subsidy implicit in the present low prices of kerosene and
and this has been facilitated by the recent agreement with the Nuclear Suppliers Group
which gives India access to imported uranium, and also opens windows for other
cooperation in this area.
Problem: Bogus NGOs and semi-naxalite intellectuals protesting against Nuke plants after
receiving bribes from abroad.
Solar
India has target to install 20,000 MW of solar power by 2020.
India has the potential to be a significant supplier of solar-equipment to other countries.
Hydro
Can make huge dams in Arunchal Pradesh and generate thosands of MW electricy.
Problem: border disputes with China.
Managing Water Resources
Indias available supply of fresh water is the same as it was 5,000 years ago, and the
population has grown.
excessive withdrawal of = water table gets low =land salinity increases = agriculture output
decreases.
If things are left to business as usual, the situation will worsen steadily.
Solutions:
1. building storage dams,
2. investing in watershed management to improve surface water retention a
3. groundwater recharge
4. forcing industry to treat waste water for reuse.
5. About 80 percent of Indias water use is for agriculture and it is technically feasible with
better agricultural practices, to reduce water use in agriculture by 40 percent to 50
percent
6. land levelling drip irrigation
Water price
Government keeps the price of irrigational water very low.
This leads to poor maintenance of the canal system due to low funds.
Tubewells
The present laws only provide for banning new tubewells in areas where the water table has
fallen too far.
This only confers a monopoly on existing tubewell owners to pump as much water as they
wish and sell it to other farmers.
Free electricity for agriculture provides a wholly unjustified incentive for such activity (of
selling tubewell water).
So, state governments should consider imposing a cess (tax on tax), on electricity for
agricultural use in all areas where the water level has sunk too low.
Right now only 30% of the sewage generated in urban areas, is treated before getting
discarged into rivers. Government should increase this to 100%.
Urbanization
The urban percentage of the population is currently around 30 percent, and is expected to
reach 40 percent by 2030.
Most of the revenue generated from economic activity in the country occurs in urban areas.
But most of this tax Revenue goes to Union and State Government and not to the city
municipalities.
So, municipalities in India also have limited money to improve the water, sewerage and
urban transport system.
Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM) introduced in the Eleventh
Plan fixing this problem. But much needs to be done yet.
Environment Protection
We want high growth (9%) without inflicting much damage to the environment.
But these two objectives (9% growth vs protect environment) cannot be achieved
simultaneously in many situations for example,
9% growth = need lots of power/electricity =need coal and hydropower= forest clearance.
9% growth = require industrialisation = leads to water +air pollution.
Therfore some compromise is necessary.
But there are certain areas where we must not make any compromise, for example tiger
Conclusion
No power on earth can stop an idea whose time has come.
We live in a world of rising and faltering economies. So, The future is what we make of it.
Nothing is ordained or pre-determined. India can rise, if the right steps at taken at right
time.
Much of what needs to be done to accelerate GDP growth to 9% (or 8.2%) will be done by
the private sector, but the governments too have a crucial role to play in providing a policy
environment that is seen as investor friendly and is supportive of inclusive growth.
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