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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Iowa
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error

1342 Registered Voters


October 15-22, 2015

4.8%

1. How would you rate the condition of the economy in Iowa today?
Very good . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Fairly good . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55%
Fairly bad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%
Very bad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%

2. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential caucus in Iowa?
Definitely will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55%
Probably will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Maybe will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Probably will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Definitely will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%

3. In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential caucus?
Democratic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
4. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Republican Presidential caucus
in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Jeb Bush . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Ben Carson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27%
Chris Christie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Ted Cruz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Carly Fiorina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Jim Gilmore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Lindsey Graham . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Mike Huckabee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Bobby Jindal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
John Kasich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
George Pataki . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Rand Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Marco Rubio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Rick Santorum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3%

5. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Democratic Presidential caucus
in 2016?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Joe Biden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Lincoln Chafee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Hillary Clinton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42%
Lawrence Lessig . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Martin OMalley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Bernie Sanders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41%
Jim Webb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
6. If Joe Biden decides not to run, which of these candidates are you most likely to vote for?
Asked if Biden is first choice candidate.

Lincoln Chafee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Hillary Clinton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51%
Lawrence Lessig . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Martin OMalley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Bernie Sanders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%
Jim Webb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Would not vote in Democratic primary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%

7. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Democratic Presidential caucus
in 2016?
Asked of Democratic primary voters; Biden votes reallocated to 2nd choice

Lincoln Chafee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Hillary Clinton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46%
Lawrence Lessig . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Martin OMalley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Bernie Sanders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43%
Jim Webb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7%

8. How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Enthusiastic about [Candidate Name] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53%
Supporting [Candidate Name] but with some reservations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
Considering [Candidate Name] mainly because you dislike the other choices so
far . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
9. Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the
Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump

Satisfied
27%
61%
22%
46%
39%
42%
15%
22%
49%
25%

Not satisifed
57%
20%
61%
30%
32%
43%
53%
58%
27%
56%

Not sure yet


16%
19%
16%
24%
29%
15%
32%
21%
25%
19%

10. Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the
Democratic party eventually nominates...
Asked of Democratic primary voters not supporting the candidate

Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders

Satisfied
49%
40%
42%

Not satisifed
29%
43%
31%

Not sure yet


22%
17%
26%

11. How much do you use Twitter to follow whats going on with the 2016 campaign?
A lot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Sometimes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Not too much . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
None . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78%

12. How much do you use Facebook to follow whats going on with the 2016 campaign?
A lot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
Sometimes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Not too much . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
None . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
13. Which of these do you do on Twitter or Facebook...?
Asked of if use Twitter or Facebook to follow campaign

Read or click links to


news stories about
the 2016 campaign
Share or retweet
links to 2016
campaign stories
Compose my own
posts or tweets about
the 2016 campaign
Follow or like
candidates Im
interested in

Often

Sometimes

Rarely/Never

38%

48%

14%

20%

24%

56%

10%

24%

66%

30%

37%

33%

14. If the next President is a Republican and you could choose one of these things they were
certain to accomplish, which of these would it be...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Defeat ISIS with the US military . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%


Build a wall along the US-Mexico border . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Defund Planned Parenthood . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Repeal Obamacare entirely . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%
Balance the Federal Budget . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32%
Raise taxes on Wall Street investment firms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
None of these . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%

15. Do you think the Republican party is currently paying too much, enough, or not enough
attention to the needs of...
Asked of Republican primary voters

The wealthy
The middle class
The Tea Party
movement
Large campaign
donors

Too much
38%
4%

Enough
56%
43%

Not enough
6%
53%

19%

43%

39%

49%

45%

6%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
16. Who do you think won the recent Democratic debate?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Lincoln Chafee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Hillary Clinton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43%
Martin OMalley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Bernie Sanders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
Jim Webb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Have not heard or seen enough to say . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%

17. Of these, which is the most important reason you are supporting Hillary Clinton?
Asked if Clinton is first choice candidate

Its time for a woman president . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%


She has the right experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%
She could change Washington and the political system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
She can win the General Election . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27%
She cares about people like me . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%

18. Of these, which is the most important reason you are supporting Bernie Sanders?
Asked if Sanders is first choice candidate

His policies on income inequality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%


He says what he believes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
He could change Washington and the political system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
He can win the General Election . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
He cares about people like me . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
19. If the next President is a Democrat and you could choose one of these things they were
certain to accomplish, which of these would it be...
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Defeat ISIS with the US military . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%


Raise the minimum wage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Raise taxes on Wall Street investment firms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Put more restrictions on guns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Reform the campaign finance system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%
Make public college free . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
None of these . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%

20. How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?


Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37%
Neutral . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44%

21. Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?*


Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%

22. Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?*
Very liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Moderate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%
Very Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%

Questions marked with an asterisk are only asked for respondents who had not answered in previous waves.
Earlier responses were used where available.

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
23. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?
Strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
Not very strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Lean Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
Lean Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10%
Not very strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%

24. Are you male or female?


Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49%
Female . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51%

25. In what year were you born? [Age recoded from birth year]
18-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
30-44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
45-64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42%
65+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%

26. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?


White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94%
Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%

27. What is the highest level of education you have completed?


HS or less . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42%
Some college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
College grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Post grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
1. Economy in State
How would you rate the condition of the economy in Iowa today?
Gender
Very good
Fairly good
Fairly bad
Very bad
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

7%
55%
23%
10%
5%

9%
60%
20%
8%
4%

5%
51%
27%
12%
6%

10%
61%
21%
1%
7%

6%
58%
17%
16%
3%

5%
52%
30%
10%
2%

7%
56%
19%
9%
9%

6%
56%
24%
9%
5%

8%
53%
9%
29%
1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(653)

(681)

(214)

(285)

(557)

(277)

(1,250)

100%

(1,334)

(17)

(16)

(51)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

2. Likelihood of Voting
How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential caucus in Iowa?
Gender
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Maybe will vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

55%
15%
8%
7%
10%
3%

58%
13%
7%
7%
11%
3%

53%
17%
10%
7%
10%
3%

62%
22%
7%
3%
6%
0%

45%
17%
17%
9%
7%
6%

54%
13%
7%
8%
15%
3%

64%
13%
4%
7%
8%
4%

55%
16%
8%
8%
10%
4%

46%
5%
23%
1%
25%
0%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(652)

(689)

(214)

(285)

(565)

(277)

(1,258)

100%

(1,341)

(16)

(16)

(51)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

3. 2016 Primary Turnout


In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential caucus?
Gender
Democratic
Republican
Neither
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

33%
34%
22%
11%

30%
40%
21%
9%

35%
29%
22%
14%

46%
32%
13%
9%

29%
28%
22%
21%

31%
35%
27%
8%

31%
41%
18%
10%

33%
35%
22%
11%

21%
26%
26%
27%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(653)

(689)

(214)

(285)

(565)

(277)

(1,258)

100%

(1,342)

(17)

(16)

(51)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

4. First Choice Republican Candidate


Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Republican Presidential caucus in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

6%
27%
1%
12%
3%
0%
0%
2%
2%
2%
0%
3%
9%
2%
27%
3%

4%
26%
0%
14%
3%
0%
0%
3%
2%
3%
0%
3%
11%
0%
30%
2%

8%
28%
3%
10%
5%
0%
0%
1%
3%
2%
0%
3%
6%
4%
24%
4%

9%
22%
2%
20%
3%
0%
0%
0%
3%
5%
0%
5%
6%
0%
26%
0%

2%
22%
0%
14%
6%
0%
0%
0%
2%
1%
0%
6%
11%
5%
30%
1%

7%
31%
3%
12%
2%
0%
0%
3%
3%
1%
0%
1%
9%
2%
24%
2%

3%
25%
0%
7%
4%
0%
0%
3%
1%
4%
0%
3%
10%
0%
33%
7%

5%
27%
1%
12%
4%
0%
0%
2%
2%
2%
0%
3%
8%
2%
28%
3%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(528)

(295)

(233)

(85)

(87)

(224)

(132)

(501)

(0)

(10)

(18)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

5. First Choice Democratic Candidate


Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Democratic Presidential caucus in 2016?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Gender
Joe Biden
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Lawrence Lessig
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

7%
0%
42%
0%
3%
41%
0%
6%

5%
0%
37%
1%
4%
48%
1%
5%

9%
0%
46%
0%
2%
35%
0%
7%

0%
0%
21%
0%
3%
76%
0%
0%

9%
1%
46%
2%
1%
39%
0%
2%

13%
0%
48%
0%
4%
30%
1%
4%

4%
0%
50%
0%
3%
21%
0%
21%

7%
0%
42%
0%
3%
41%
0%
6%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(554)

(244)

(310)

(133)

(96)

(215)

(109)

(518)

(15)

(8)

(14)

6. 2nd Choice after Biden


If Joe Biden decides not to run, which of these candidates are you most likely to vote for?
Asked if Biden is first choice candidate
Question not listed due to small sample size.

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

7. First Choice Democratic Candidate


Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Democratic Presidential caucus in 2016?
Asked of Democratic primary voters; Biden votes reallocated to 2nd choice

Gender
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Lawrence Lessig
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

1%
46%
0%
3%
43%
0%
7%

1%
38%
1%
4%
50%
1%
5%

0%
52%
0%
3%
37%
0%
9%

0%
21%
0%
3%
76%
0%
0%

1%
54%
2%
1%
40%
0%
2%

1%
55%
0%
4%
33%
1%
6%

0%
52%
0%
4%
22%
1%
22%

1%
46%
0%
3%
43%
0%
7%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(551)

(244)

(307)

(133)

(96)

(213)

(109)

(515)

(15)

(8)

(14)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

8. Enthusiasm for First Choice


How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Gender
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

53%
36%
10%

59%
33%
9%

48%
40%
12%

62%
31%
6%

51%
40%
9%

52%
34%
15%

52%
43%
6%

53%
37%
11%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,147)

(570)

(577)

(209)

(235)

(482)

(221)

(1,088)

(15)

(15)

(29)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

9. Satisfied with Republican Candidates Jeb Bush


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

27%
57%
16%

27%
63%
11%

27%
50%
22%

33%
61%
6%

20%
64%
16%

27%
58%
15%

29%
49%
22%

26%
58%
16%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(495)

(284)

(210)

(75)

(85)

(208)

(126)

(473)

(0)

(5)

(17)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

10. Satisfied with Republican Candidates Ben Carson


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

61%
20%
19%

68%
19%
14%

52%
23%
25%

62%
26%
13%

53%
22%
25%

67%
16%
18%

57%
23%
20%

63%
19%
17%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(385)

(220)

(165)

(64)

(68)

(154)

(100)

(361)

(0)

(10)

(14)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

11. Satisfied with Republican Candidates Chris Christie


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

22%
61%
16%

27%
62%
11%

16%
61%
23%

33%
55%
12%

20%
65%
14%

16%
66%
18%

26%
56%
18%

22%
61%
16%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(515)

(293)

(222)

(81)

(85)

(218)

(130)

(488)

(0)

(10)

(18)

10

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

12. Satisfied with Republican Candidates Ted Cruz


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

46%
30%
24%

56%
32%
12%

34%
27%
39%

37%
44%
19%

46%
28%
26%

52%
24%
24%

42%
33%
25%

47%
30%
23%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(456)

(254)

(202)

(66)

(73)

(197)

(120)

(432)

(0)

(10)

(15)

11

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

13. Satisfied with Republican Candidates Carly Fiorina


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

39%
32%
29%

45%
35%
20%

31%
29%
40%

30%
36%
34%

21%
47%
32%

45%
32%
24%

48%
21%
31%

40%
32%
28%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(505)

(287)

(218)

(80)

(80)

(219)

(125)

(477)

(0)

(10)

(18)

12

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

14. Satisfied with Republican Candidates Mike Huckabee


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

42%
43%
15%

44%
44%
12%

40%
42%
19%

48%
38%
14%

47%
40%
13%

38%
46%
16%

42%
44%
14%

43%
42%
15%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(513)

(287)

(226)

(82)

(87)

(218)

(127)

(486)

(0)

(9)

(18)

13

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

15. Satisfied with Republican Candidates John Kasich


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

15%
53%
32%

20%
59%
21%

9%
44%
47%

19%
40%
41%

3%
63%
35%

16%
55%
29%

20%
50%
31%

15%
53%
33%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(507)

(286)

(221)

(78)

(85)

(220)

(125)

(480)

(0)

(10)

(18)

14

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

16. Satisfied with Republican Candidates Rand Paul


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

22%
58%
21%

25%
62%
13%

18%
52%
30%

26%
53%
22%

30%
53%
17%

24%
54%
23%

11%
70%
18%

22%
58%
20%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(508)

(286)

(222)

(81)

(82)

(220)

(126)

(481)

(0)

(10)

(17)

15

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

17. Satisfied with Republican Candidates Marco Rubio


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

49%
27%
25%

54%
31%
15%

42%
22%
36%

62%
23%
15%

29%
35%
35%

52%
27%
21%

46%
23%
31%

50%
27%
23%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(475)

(261)

(214)

(78)

(75)

(204)

(117)

(457)

(0)

(6)

(12)

16

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

18. Satisfied with Republican Candidates Donald Trump


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

25%
56%
19%

31%
53%
16%

18%
59%
23%

0%
89%
11%

13%
56%
31%

29%
53%
18%

44%
38%
18%

26%
55%
19%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(380)

(206)

(174)

(61)

(61)

(171)

(87)

(355)

(0)

(9)

(16)

17

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

19. Satisfied with Democratic Candidates Joe Biden


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Democratic party eventually nominates...
Asked of Democratic primary voters not supporting the candidate

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

49%
29%
22%

56%
29%
15%

44%
29%
27%

33%
48%
19%

49%
20%
32%

51%
28%
21%

67%
14%
19%

49%
30%
21%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(497)

(224)

(273)

(125)

(84)

(186)

(102)

(473)

(12)

(0)

(12)

18

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

20. Satisfied with Democratic Candidates Hillary Clinton


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Democratic party eventually nominates...
Asked of Democratic primary voters not supporting the candidate

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

40%
43%
17%

41%
48%
11%

39%
38%
23%

38%
60%
2%

36%
34%
30%

50%
32%
19%

38%
44%
17%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(155)

(168)

(106)

100%

(323)

(111)

(55)

(301)

(50)

(4)

(8)

(11)

19

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

21. Satisfied with Democratic Candidates Bernie Sanders


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Democratic party eventually nominates...
Asked of Democratic primary voters not supporting the candidate

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

42%
31%
26%

49%
30%
22%

38%
32%
30%

42%
28%
31%

42%
27%
31%

44%
33%
23%

42%
31%
26%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(126)

(198)

100%

(324)

(58)

(151)

(85)

(301)

(30)

(12)

(0)

(10)

20

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

22. Twitter for 2016 Campaign


How much do you use Twitter to follow whats going on with the 2016 campaign?
Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

A lot
Sometimes
Not too much
None

3%
7%
12%
78%

4%
7%
9%
79%

3%
7%
14%
77%

14%
15%
19%
52%

3%
11%
18%
69%

1%
4%
9%
86%

2%
2%
5%
91%

3%
6%
12%
79%

12%
9%
5%
73%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(652)

(688)

(214)

(285)

(565)

(277)

(1,257)

100%

(1,341)

(16)

(16)

(51)

21

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

23. Facebook for 2016 Campaign


How much do you use Facebook to follow whats going on with the 2016 campaign?
Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

A lot
Sometimes
Not too much
None

14%
21%
19%
46%

18%
20%
16%
46%

9%
22%
23%
45%

22%
42%
12%
24%

10%
27%
33%
30%

12%
13%
16%
60%

14%
17%
18%
51%

13%
22%
20%
45%

18%
11%
9%
63%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(647)

(687)

(214)

(284)

(561)

(275)

(1,251)

100%

(1,335)

(16)

(16)

(51)

22

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

24. Social Media for 2016 Campaign Read or click links to news stories about the 2016 campaign
Which of these do you do on Twitter or Facebook...?
Asked of if use Twitter or Facebook to follow campaign

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Often
Sometimes
Rarely/Never

38%
48%
14%

47%
41%
12%

29%
54%
16%

47%
48%
5%

35%
45%
19%

36%
50%
14%

32%
49%
19%

36%
49%
14%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(734)

(343)

(391)

(167)

(192)

(239)

(136)

(704)

(8)

(3)

(19)

23

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

25. Social Media for 2016 Campaign Share or retweet links to 2016 campaign stories
Which of these do you do on Twitter or Facebook...?
Asked of if use Twitter or Facebook to follow campaign

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Often
Sometimes
Rarely/Never

20%
24%
56%

31%
21%
48%

11%
27%
62%

38%
20%
42%

15%
22%
63%

17%
27%
56%

11%
26%
63%

18%
25%
57%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(726)

(343)

(383)

(172)

(191)

(232)

(131)

(692)

(8)

(9)

(18)

24

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

26. Social Media for 2016 Campaign Compose my own posts or tweets about the 2016 campaign
Which of these do you do on Twitter or Facebook...?
Asked of if use Twitter or Facebook to follow campaign

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Often
Sometimes
Rarely/Never

10%
24%
66%

14%
25%
61%

6%
23%
70%

23%
20%
57%

10%
27%
64%

3%
29%
68%

8%
16%
76%

10%
24%
66%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(715)

(336)

(379)

(166)

(191)

(228)

(130)

(689)

(5)

(3)

(18)

25

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

27. Social Media for 2016 Campaign Follow or like candidates Im interested in
Which of these do you do on Twitter or Facebook...?
Asked of if use Twitter or Facebook to follow campaign

Gender

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Often
Sometimes
Rarely/Never

30%
37%
33%

37%
37%
26%

24%
37%
40%

45%
22%
33%

23%
41%
37%

28%
38%
34%

26%
48%
26%

29%
37%
34%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(723)

(340)

(383)

(166)

(193)

(231)

(132)

(695)

(8)

(3)

(18)

26

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

28. Republican President Policy Goal


If the next President is a Republican and you could choose one of these things they were certain to accomplish, which of these would it be...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Defeat ISIS with the US military
Build a wall along the US-Mexico
border
Defund Planned Parenthood
Repeal Obamacare entirely
Balance the Federal Budget
Raise taxes on Wall Street investment
firms
None of these
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

13%

14%

11%

14%

16%

13%

10%

13%

13%
10%
26%
32%

12%
12%
23%
32%

14%
9%
30%
31%

8%
10%
14%
48%

14%
20%
14%
31%

12%
8%
36%
26%

17%
8%
25%
31%

13%
10%
25%
32%

3%
4%

3%
4%

3%
3%

3%
3%

0%
6%

0%
5%

8%
1%

3%
4%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(527)

(295)

(232)

(85)

(87)

(223)

(132)

(501)

(0)

(10)

(16)

27

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

29. Republican Party Attention The wealthy


Do you think the Republican party is currently paying too much, enough, or not enough attention to the needs of...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Too much
Enough
Not enough
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

38%
56%
6%

38%
57%
5%

38%
54%
8%

35%
55%
10%

31%
63%
6%

36%
57%
6%

48%
49%
4%

39%
54%
6%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(524)

(294)

(230)

(85)

(86)

(223)

(131)

(497)

(0)

(10)

(18)

28

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

30. Republican Party Attention The middle class


Do you think the Republican party is currently paying too much, enough, or not enough attention to the needs of...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Too much
Enough
Not enough
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

4%
43%
53%

4%
46%
50%

3%
40%
56%

17%
53%
30%

0%
62%
38%

1%
37%
62%

1%
36%
63%

4%
43%
53%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(527)

(296)

(231)

(85)

(87)

(224)

(132)

(500)

(0)

(10)

(18)

29

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

31. Republican Party Attention The Tea Party movement


Do you think the Republican party is currently paying too much, enough, or not enough attention to the needs of...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Too much
Enough
Not enough
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

19%
43%
39%

21%
32%
47%

16%
56%
28%

27%
43%
30%

10%
45%
45%

16%
45%
39%

24%
36%
39%

18%
43%
39%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(522)

(294)

(228)

(83)

(86)

(223)

(130)

(495)

(0)

(10)

(18)

30

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

32. Republican Party Attention Large campaign donors


Do you think the Republican party is currently paying too much, enough, or not enough attention to the needs of...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Too much
Enough
Not enough
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

49%
45%
6%

46%
49%
6%

54%
40%
6%

42%
50%
8%

45%
48%
7%

54%
42%
4%

48%
46%
6%

50%
44%
6%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(524)

(295)

(229)

(83)

(86)

(223)

(131)

(497)

(0)

(10)

(18)

31

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

33. Who Won the Debate


Who do you think won the recent Democratic debate?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Gender
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
Not sure
Have not heard or seen enough to say
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

0%
43%
1%
29%
1%
10%
15%

0%
42%
2%
37%
0%
10%
8%

0%
43%
1%
23%
2%
11%
21%

0%
25%
4%
48%
0%
6%
18%

1%
41%
0%
30%
0%
16%
12%

0%
44%
1%
26%
3%
11%
16%

0%
61%
1%
14%
0%
10%
14%

0%
43%
1%
30%
1%
10%
16%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(548)

(238)

(310)

(126)

(96)

(215)

(110)

(519)

(15)

(0)

(14)

32

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

34. Reason for Supporting Clinton


Of these, which is the most important reason you are supporting Hillary Clinton?
Asked if Clinton is first choice candidate

Gender
Its time for a woman president
She has the right experience
She could change Washington and
the political system
She can win the General Election
She cares about people like me
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

9%
35%

2%
31%

13%
37%

4%
32%

2%
46%

10%
36%

14%
27%
16%

12%
40%
16%

14%
19%
16%

17%
34%
13%

3%
22%
26%

10%
28%
16%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(83)

(141)

100%

(224)

(104)

(55)

(211)

(28)

(38)

(10)

(0)

(3)

33

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

35. Reason for Supporting Sanders


Of these, which is the most important reason you are supporting Bernie Sanders?
Asked if Sanders is first choice candidate

Gender
His policies on income inequality
He says what he believes
He could change Washington and the
political system
He can win the General Election
He cares about people like me
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

32%
21%

38%
24%

25%
18%

24%
17%

40%
22%

33%
17%

15%
1%
31%

11%
1%
25%

18%
1%
38%

21%
0%
38%

5%
2%
31%

16%
1%
33%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(109)

(102)

100%

(117)

100%

(226)

(37)

(64)

(23)

(213)

(2)

(7)

(4)

34

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

36. Democratic President Policy Goal


If the next President is a Democrat and you could choose one of these things they were certain to accomplish, which of these would it be...
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Gender
Defeat ISIS with the US military
Raise the minimum wage
Raise taxes on Wall Street investment
firms
Put more restrictions on guns
Reform the campaign finance system
Make public college free
None of these
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

11%
15%

5%
13%

19%
12%
20%
16%
8%

Race/Ethnicity

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

15%
16%

8%
8%

17%
19%

9%
16%

11%
18%

11%
15%

20%
7%
33%
18%
5%

18%
16%
10%
15%
10%

23%
10%
13%
34%
5%

13%
12%
24%
7%
9%

18%
14%
19%
14%
10%

21%
12%
26%
6%
5%

19%
12%
21%
14%
8%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(553)

(243)

(310)

(133)

(96)

(215)

(109)

(517)

(15)

(8)

(14)

35

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error

529 Likely Republican Caucus Voters


October 15-22, 2015

6.5%

1. First Choice Republican Candidate


Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Republican Presidential caucus in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

6%
27%
1%
12%
3%
0%
0%
2%
2%
2%
0%
3%
9%
2%
27%
3%

1%
22%
0%
28%
1%
0%
0%
1%
2%
2%
0%
2%
12%
6%
22%
2%

9%
32%
3%
6%
4%
0%
0%
3%
3%
0%
0%
2%
9%
0%
28%
1%

3%
26%
0%
24%
3%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
4%
5%
2%
28%
2%

8%
28%
2%
2%
4%
0%
0%
2%
3%
4%
0%
3%
12%
2%
27%
4%

6%
34%
2%
18%
3%
0%
0%
2%
3%
1%
0%
3%
5%
3%
17%
2%

5%
17%
0%
5%
5%
0%
0%
2%
2%
4%
0%
4%
14%
0%
38%
3%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(147)

(210)

100%

(528)

(241)

(287)

(276)

(229)

Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore

Tea Party

(48)
Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

6%
27%
1%
12%
3%
0%

4%
26%
0%
14%
3%
0%

8%
28%
3%
10%
5%
0%

9%
22%
2%
20%
3%
0%

2%
22%
0%
14%
6%
0%

7%
31%
3%
12%
2%
0%

3%
25%
0%
7%
4%
0%

7%
26%
1%
13%
3%
0%

2%
32%
1%
9%
5%
0%

continued on the next page . . .

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

continued from previous page


Age group

Gender
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

0%
2%
2%
2%
0%
3%
9%
2%
27%
3%

0%
3%
2%
3%
0%
3%
11%
0%
30%
2%

0%
1%
3%
2%
0%
3%
6%
4%
24%
4%

0%
0%
3%
5%
0%
5%
6%
0%
26%
0%

0%
0%
2%
1%
0%
6%
11%
5%
30%
1%

0%
3%
3%
1%
0%
1%
9%
2%
24%
2%

0%
3%
1%
4%
0%
3%
10%
0%
33%
7%

0%
2%
3%
2%
0%
4%
10%
2%
24%
3%

0%
1%
2%
2%
0%
1%
5%
0%
38%
2%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(528)

(295)

(233)

(85)

(87)

(224)

(132)

(403)

(92)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

2. Enthusiasm for First Choice


How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Ideology
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

58%
36%
6%

67%
25%
8%

53%
44%
3%

66%
29%
5%

52%
42%
6%

63%
34%
3%

55%
35%
10%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(144)

(207)

100%

(513)

(236)

(277)

(270)

(223)

(44)

Gender
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

58%
36%
6%

60%
33%
7%

56%
40%
4%

55%
33%
12%

68%
30%
2%

56%
39%
6%

58%
37%
5%

55%
38%
6%

66%
29%
5%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(513)

(290)

(223)

(85)

(86)

(219)

(123)

(393)

(90)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

3. Satisfied with Republican Candidates Jeb Bush


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Ideology

Tea Party

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

27%
57%
16%

19%
67%
15%

31%
57%
12%

16%
70%
14%

36%
47%
17%

28%
56%
16%

28%
58%
14%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(147)

(189)

100%

(495)

(230)

(264)

(257)

(218)

(45)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

27%
57%
16%

27%
63%
11%

27%
50%
22%

33%
61%
6%

20%
64%
16%

27%
58%
15%

29%
49%
22%

32%
52%
16%

10%
77%
13%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(495)

(284)

(210)

(75)

(85)

(208)

(126)

(374)

(88)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

4. Satisfied with Republican Candidates Ben Carson


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Ideology

Tea Party

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

61%
20%
19%

66%
22%
13%

66%
16%
18%

76%
13%
11%

48%
27%
25%

70%
15%
15%

54%
26%
19%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(116)

(142)

100%

(385)

(178)

(207)

(180)

(189)

(42)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

61%
20%
19%

68%
19%
14%

52%
23%
25%

62%
26%
13%

53%
22%
25%

67%
16%
18%

57%
23%
20%

60%
20%
20%

73%
17%
10%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(385)

(220)

(165)

(64)

(68)

(154)

(100)

(295)

(63)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

5. Satisfied with Republican Candidates Chris Christie


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Ideology

Tea Party

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

22%
61%
16%

20%
66%
14%

19%
66%
14%

16%
69%
15%

27%
55%
18%

19%
69%
12%

26%
54%
20%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(146)

(202)

100%

(515)

(238)

(277)

(266)

(228)

(46)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

22%
61%
16%

27%
62%
11%

16%
61%
23%

33%
55%
12%

20%
65%
14%

16%
66%
18%

26%
56%
18%

24%
59%
17%

19%
69%
12%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(515)

(293)

(222)

(81)

(85)

(218)

(130)

(393)

(90)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

6. Satisfied with Republican Candidates Ted Cruz


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Ideology

Tea Party

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

46%
30%
24%

72%
13%
14%

54%
27%
18%

73%
14%
13%

28%
40%
31%

58%
19%
23%

35%
42%
23%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(105)

(193)

100%

(456)

(180)

(276)

(221)

(215)

(47)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

46%
30%
24%

56%
32%
12%

34%
27%
39%

37%
44%
19%

46%
28%
26%

52%
24%
24%

42%
33%
25%

48%
28%
23%

50%
27%
23%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(456)

(254)

(202)

(66)

(73)

(197)

(120)

(344)

(82)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

7. Satisfied with Republican Candidates Carly Fiorina


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Ideology

Tea Party

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

39%
32%
29%

48%
34%
17%

42%
29%
29%

46%
31%
24%

34%
33%
33%

41%
30%
30%

38%
37%
25%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(145)

(201)

100%

(505)

(232)

(273)

(264)

(219)

(42)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

39%
32%
29%

45%
35%
20%

31%
29%
40%

30%
36%
34%

21%
47%
32%

45%
32%
24%

48%
21%
31%

43%
30%
27%

33%
43%
24%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(505)

(287)

(218)

(80)

(80)

(219)

(125)

(387)

(86)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

8. Satisfied with Republican Candidates Mike Huckabee


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Ideology

Tea Party

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

42%
43%
15%

51%
40%
9%

43%
41%
16%

55%
33%
12%

31%
52%
18%

59%
29%
13%

24%
60%
16%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(147)

(200)

100%

(513)

(234)

(278)

(267)

(224)

(47)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

42%
43%
15%

44%
44%
12%

40%
42%
19%

48%
38%
14%

47%
40%
13%

38%
46%
16%

42%
44%
14%

47%
39%
14%

29%
55%
16%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(513)

(287)

(226)

(82)

(87)

(218)

(127)

(391)

(89)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

9. Satisfied with Republican Candidates John Kasich


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Ideology

Tea Party

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

15%
53%
32%

15%
65%
20%

20%
49%
31%

14%
61%
25%

16%
46%
38%

13%
51%
36%

18%
55%
27%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(144)

(204)

100%

(507)

(235)

(273)

(266)

(220)

(44)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

15%
53%
32%

20%
59%
21%

9%
44%
47%

19%
40%
41%

3%
63%
35%

16%
55%
29%

20%
50%
31%

17%
49%
34%

12%
68%
20%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(507)

(286)

(221)

(78)

(85)

(220)

(125)

(389)

(88)

10

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

10. Satisfied with Republican Candidates Rand Paul


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Ideology

Tea Party

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

22%
58%
21%

25%
56%
19%

24%
58%
18%

29%
53%
18%

16%
61%
23%

27%
52%
21%

17%
65%
18%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(145)

(203)

100%

(508)

(231)

(277)

(268)

(219)

(46)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

22%
58%
21%

25%
62%
13%

18%
52%
30%

26%
53%
22%

30%
53%
17%

24%
54%
23%

11%
70%
18%

21%
59%
20%

32%
48%
20%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(508)

(286)

(222)

(81)

(82)

(220)

(126)

(387)

(89)

11

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

11. Satisfied with Republican Candidates Marco Rubio


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Ideology

Tea Party

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

49%
27%
25%

46%
38%
16%

56%
22%
21%

51%
31%
18%

46%
23%
31%

53%
25%
23%

43%
30%
27%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(129)

(190)

100%

(475)

(226)

(249)

(257)

(197)

(44)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

49%
27%
25%

54%
31%
15%

42%
22%
36%

62%
23%
15%

29%
35%
35%

52%
27%
21%

46%
23%
31%

53%
23%
24%

38%
43%
19%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(475)

(261)

(214)

(78)

(75)

(204)

(117)

(358)

(86)

12

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

12. Satisfied with Republican Candidates Donald Trump


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Republican party eventually nominates...
Asked of Republican primary voters not supporting the candidate

Ideology

Tea Party

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

25%
56%
19%

29%
58%
13%

26%
56%
17%

35%
44%
21%

17%
65%
18%

21%
60%
19%

27%
53%
19%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(116)

(149)

100%

(380)

(171)

(209)

(225)

(142)

(25)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

25%
56%
19%

31%
53%
16%

18%
59%
23%

0%
89%
11%

13%
56%
31%

29%
53%
18%

44%
38%
18%

24%
59%
17%

34%
39%
28%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(380)

(206)

(174)

(61)

(61)

(171)

(87)

(305)

(56)

13

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

13. Republican President Policy Goal


If the next President is a Republican and you could choose one of these things they were certain to accomplish, which of these would it be...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Total
Defeat ISIS with the US military
Build a wall along the US-Mexico
border
Defund Planned Parenthood
Repeal Obamacare entirely
Balance the Federal Budget
Raise taxes on Wall Street investment
firms
None of these
Totals
(Weighted N)

Very conservative

Tea Party

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

13%

9%

15%

14%

12%

11%

16%

13%
10%
26%
32%

14%
18%
28%
30%

16%
6%
25%
32%

16%
16%
22%
29%

10%
6%
29%
34%

12%
16%
28%
27%

14%
5%
22%
38%

3%
4%

0%
1%

4%
3%

0%
2%

5%
5%

1%
5%

4%
2%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(147)

(210)

100%

(527)

(240)

(287)

(275)

(230)

(48)

Gender
Defeat ISIS with the US military
Build a wall along the US-Mexico
border
Defund Planned Parenthood
Repeal Obamacare entirely
Balance the Federal Budget
Raise taxes on Wall Street investment
firms
None of these
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

13%

14%

11%

14%

16%

13%

10%

15%

7%

13%
10%
26%
32%

12%
12%
23%
32%

14%
9%
30%
31%

8%
10%
14%
48%

14%
20%
14%
31%

12%
8%
36%
26%

17%
8%
25%
31%

11%
13%
27%
32%

21%
5%
24%
34%

3%
4%

3%
4%

3%
3%

3%
3%

0%
6%

0%
5%

8%
1%

0%
2%

6%
4%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(527)

(295)

(232)

(85)

(87)

(223)

(132)

(402)

(92)

14

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

14. Republican Party Attention The wealthy


Do you think the Republican party is currently paying too much, enough, or not enough attention to the needs of...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Too much
Enough
Not enough
Totals
(Weighted N)

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

38%
56%
6%

34%
63%
3%

29%
63%
8%

31%
66%
3%

44%
47%
9%

39%
56%
6%

39%
55%
6%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(147)

(209)

100%

(524)

(240)

(285)

(275)

(228)

(46)

Gender
Too much
Enough
Not enough
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

38%
56%
6%

38%
57%
5%

38%
54%
8%

35%
55%
10%

31%
63%
6%

36%
57%
6%

48%
49%
4%

35%
59%
6%

40%
53%
7%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(524)

(294)

(230)

(85)

(86)

(223)

(131)

(400)

(91)

15

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

15. Republican Party Attention The middle class


Do you think the Republican party is currently paying too much, enough, or not enough attention to the needs of...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Too much
Enough
Not enough
Totals
(Weighted N)

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

4%
43%
53%

5%
42%
53%

3%
47%
50%

4%
44%
52%

4%
43%
54%

0%
44%
55%

7%
41%
52%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(148)

(210)

100%

(527)

(241)

(287)

(276)

(230)

(48)

Gender
Too much
Enough
Not enough
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

4%
43%
53%

4%
46%
50%

3%
40%
56%

17%
53%
30%

0%
62%
38%

1%
37%
62%

1%
36%
63%

4%
47%
48%

2%
31%
67%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(527)

(296)

(231)

(85)

(87)

(224)

(132)

(402)

(92)

16

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

16. Republican Party Attention The Tea Party movement


Do you think the Republican party is currently paying too much, enough, or not enough attention to the needs of...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Too much
Enough
Not enough
Totals
(Weighted N)

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

19%
43%
39%

10%
32%
59%

17%
41%
41%

3%
31%
67%

32%
53%
15%

13%
42%
45%

26%
43%
32%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(148)

(208)

100%

(522)

(239)

(284)

(273)

(229)

(45)

Gender
Too much
Enough
Not enough
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

19%
43%
39%

21%
32%
47%

16%
56%
28%

27%
43%
30%

10%
45%
45%

16%
45%
39%

24%
36%
39%

18%
45%
37%

22%
32%
45%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(522)

(294)

(228)

(83)

(86)

(223)

(130)

(399)

(90)

17

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

17. Republican Party Attention Large campaign donors


Do you think the Republican party is currently paying too much, enough, or not enough attention to the needs of...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Too much
Enough
Not enough
Totals
(Weighted N)

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

49%
45%
6%

54%
43%
3%

43%
51%
6%

49%
47%
4%

49%
44%
7%

57%
39%
3%

42%
50%
7%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(148)

(209)

100%

(524)

(241)

(283)

(275)

(228)

(45)

Gender
Too much
Enough
Not enough
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

49%
45%
6%

46%
49%
6%

54%
40%
6%

42%
50%
8%

45%
48%
7%

54%
42%
4%

48%
46%
6%

46%
49%
5%

60%
31%
9%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(524)

(295)

(229)

(83)

(86)

(223)

(131)

(400)

(91)

18

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error

555 Likely Democratic Caucus Voters


October 15-22, 2015

6.9%

1. First Choice Democratic Candidate


Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Democratic Presidential caucus in 2016?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology
Joe Biden
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Lawrence Lessig
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

7%
0%
42%
0%
3%
41%
0%
6%

1%
1%
40%
0%
3%
54%
0%
1%

9%
0%
35%
1%
1%
52%
0%
2%

6%
0%
58%
0%
4%
22%
1%
10%

5%
0%
37%
1%
4%
48%
1%
5%

9%
0%
46%
0%
2%
35%
0%
7%

0%
0%
21%
0%
3%
76%
0%
0%

9%
1%
46%
2%
1%
39%
0%
2%

13%
0%
48%
0%
4%
30%
1%
4%

4%
0%
50%
0%
3%
21%
0%
21%

8%
0%
46%
0%
3%
38%
0%
4%

5%
0%
34%
2%
2%
49%
2%
5%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(554)

(121)

(175)

(132)

(244)

(310)

(133)

(96)

(215)

(109)

(435)

(85)

2. 2nd Choice after Biden


If Joe Biden decides not to run, which of these candidates are you most likely to vote for?
Asked if Biden is first choice candidate
Question not listed due to small sample size.

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

3. First Choice Democratic Candidate


Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Democratic Presidential caucus in 2016?
Asked of Democratic primary voters; Biden votes reallocated to 2nd choice

Ideology
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Lawrence Lessig
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

1%
46%
0%
3%
43%
0%
7%

1%
41%
0%
3%
55%
0%
1%

1%
40%
1%
1%
55%
0%
2%

0%
61%
0%
5%
23%
1%
10%

1%
38%
1%
4%
50%
1%
5%

0%
52%
0%
3%
37%
0%
9%

0%
21%
0%
3%
76%
0%
0%

1%
54%
2%
1%
40%
0%
2%

1%
55%
0%
4%
33%
1%
6%

0%
52%
0%
4%
22%
1%
22%

1%
51%
0%
3%
39%
0%
5%

0%
34%
2%
3%
53%
2%
6%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(551)

(121)

(175)

(131)

(244)

(307)

(133)

(96)

(213)

(109)

(434)

(85)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

4. Enthusiasm for First Choice


How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Ideology
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

59%
35%
7%

76%
19%
5%

64%
33%
4%

50%
48%
3%

69%
29%
3%

50%
40%
10%

69%
27%
4%

51%
41%
8%

55%
35%
10%

59%
39%
2%

61%
34%
6%

46%
43%
11%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(520)

(119)

(171)

(119)

(233)

(287)

(133)

(94)

(206)

(86)

(416)

(80)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

5. Satisfied with Democratic Candidates Joe Biden


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Democratic party eventually nominates...
Asked of Democratic primary voters not supporting the candidate

Ideology

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

49%
29%
22%

57%
28%
16%

33%
41%
27%

61%
20%
19%

56%
29%
15%

44%
29%
27%

33%
48%
19%

49%
20%
32%

51%
28%
21%

67%
14%
19%

51%
27%
21%

48%
34%
18%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(497)

(112)

(156)

(122)

(224)

(273)

(125)

(84)

(186)

(102)

(385)

(80)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

6. Satisfied with Democratic Candidates Hillary Clinton


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Democratic party eventually nominates...
Asked of Democratic primary voters not supporting the candidate

Ideology

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

40%
43%
17%

57%
40%
3%

33%
51%
16%

40%
43%
17%

41%
48%
11%

39%
38%
23%

38%
60%
2%

36%
34%
30%

50%
32%
19%

46%
35%
20%

29%
65%
6%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(72)

(113)

(57)

(155)

(168)

(106)

100%

(323)

(111)

(55)

(233)

(56)

(50)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

7. Satisfied with Democratic Candidates Bernie Sanders


Although you are not voting for them right now, would you be satisfied or dissatisfied if the Democratic party eventually nominates...
Asked of Democratic primary voters not supporting the candidate

Ideology

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

Satisfied
Not satisifed
Not sure yet

42%
31%
26%

36%
44%
19%

54%
28%
18%

45%
20%
35%

49%
30%
22%

38%
32%
30%

42%
28%
31%

42%
27%
31%

44%
33%
23%

45%
28%
27%

Totals
(Weighted N)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(56)

(82)

(102)

(126)

(198)

100%

(324)

(58)

(151)

(85)

(267)

(30)

(43)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

8. Who Won the Debate


Who do you think won the recent Democratic debate?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
Not sure
Have not heard or seen enough to say
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

0%
43%
1%
29%
1%
10%
15%

1%
40%
4%
31%
0%
12%
14%

0%
38%
0%
40%
0%
11%
11%

0%
59%
2%
17%
0%
8%
14%

0%
42%
2%
37%
0%
10%
8%

0%
43%
1%
23%
2%
11%
21%

0%
25%
4%
48%
0%
6%
18%

1%
41%
0%
30%
0%
16%
12%

0%
44%
1%
26%
3%
11%
16%

0%
61%
1%
14%
0%
10%
14%

0%
47%
1%
25%
1%
12%
14%

0%
32%
3%
51%
1%
6%
7%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(548)

(113)

(175)

(133)

(238)

(310)

(126)

(96)

(215)

(110)

(429)

(85)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

9. Reason for Supporting Clinton


Of these, which is the most important reason you are supporting Hillary Clinton?
Asked if Clinton is first choice candidate

Ideology
Its time for a woman president
She has the right experience
She could change Washington and
the political system
She can win the General Election
She cares about people like me
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

9%
35%

1%
44%

6%
31%

2%
31%

13%
37%

4%
32%

2%
46%

7%
38%

14%
27%
16%

19%
25%
11%

6%
33%
24%

12%
40%
16%

14%
19%
16%

17%
34%
13%

3%
22%
26%

14%
25%
17%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(76)

(83)

(141)

100%

(62)

(104)

(55)

(195)

100%
(224)

(42)

(28)

(38)

(29)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

10. Reason for Supporting Sanders


Of these, which is the most important reason you are supporting Bernie Sanders?
Asked if Sanders is first choice candidate

Ideology
His policies on income inequality
He says what he believes
He could change Washington and the
political system
He can win the General Election
He cares about people like me
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

32%
21%

27%
38%

36%
15%

38%
24%

25%
18%

24%
17%

40%
22%

35%
23%

15%
1%
31%

19%
1%
14%

15%
1%
32%

11%
1%
25%

18%
1%
38%

21%
0%
38%

5%
2%
31%

15%
0%
25%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(117)

(109)

(102)

100%

(91)

100%

(65)

100%

(226)

(29)

(37)

(64)

(23)

(164)

(41)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa

11. Democratic President Policy Goal


If the next President is a Democrat and you could choose one of these things they were certain to accomplish, which of these would it be...
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology
Defeat ISIS with the US military
Raise the minimum wage
Raise taxes on Wall Street investment
firms
Put more restrictions on guns
Reform the campaign finance system
Make public college free
None of these
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

11%
15%

8%
16%

13%
10%

10%
21%

5%
13%

19%
12%
20%
16%
8%

18%
8%
17%
25%
8%

17%
17%
26%
13%
5%

20%
9%
19%
15%
5%

100%

100%

100%

(553)

(121)

(174)

Party ID

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

15%
16%

8%
8%

17%
19%

9%
16%

11%
18%

10%
17%

8%
11%

20%
7%
33%
18%
5%

18%
16%
10%
15%
10%

23%
10%
13%
34%
5%

13%
12%
24%
7%
9%

18%
14%
19%
14%
10%

21%
12%
26%
6%
5%

19%
14%
19%
13%
9%

23%
8%
29%
19%
3%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(131)

(243)

(310)

(133)

(96)

(215)

(109)

(434)

(85)

10