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(20 pts.)

MGT 3500

Review #1

• 1. Lakewood Fashions must decide how many lots of assorted ski wear to order for its three stores. Information on pricing, sales, and inventory costs has led to the following payoff (profit) table, in thousands.

 Demand low medium high 1 lot 10 15 15 Order size 2 lots 8 30 30 3 lots 5 25 50 4 lots 2 15 60 Determine the best alternative based on the criteria listed below. a. Laplace (Equal probabilities). 3 rd Order size 1 lots: ! ( 10 + 15 + 15) = ! !" ! lots: ! ( 8 + ! 2 30 + 30) = !! ! 3 !The MAX 25 + 50) = lots: ! ( 5 + !" ! ! 4 lots: ! ! 2 + 15 + 60 = !! ! b. Criterion of pessimism. (best of the worst) Demand low medium high 1 lot 10 15 15 Order size 2 lots 8 30 30 3 lots 5 25 50 4 lots 2 15 60 c. Criterion of optimism. (best of the best) Demand low medium high 1 lot 10 15 15 Order size 2 lots 8 30 30 3 lots 5 25 50 4 lots 2 15 60
• d. Hurwicz criterion Alternative 1 = 0.4 (15) + 0.6 (10) = 15 Alternative 2 = 0.4 (30) + 0.6 (8) = 16.8 Alternative 3 = 0.4 (50) + 0.6 (5) = 23 Alternative 4 = 0.4 (60) + 0.6 (2) = 25.2

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MGT 3500

Review #1

• e. The criterion of regret. (the best of the worst)

 Demand Regret low medium high Low Mediu High m Order lot 1 10 15 15 0 15 45 size lots 2 30 8 30 2 0 20 3 lots 5 25 50 5 10 5 4 15 lots 2 60 8 15 0 (20 pts.)
• 2. Ernie’s Fish Market sells fresh trout. Trout are bought in Denver at \$2.00 (Cost) per fish (including transportation cost) and (sold) for \$4.00 per fish. Any trout left over at the end of the week is sold to a cat food plant for \$1.00 (Over-stock)per fish. The estimated cost of customer ill will if demand is not met is \$1 per fish (understock). According to past experience, the weekly demand for trout has been as follows:

 Demand Probability of demand 20 0.1 Sold \$ 4 21 0.2 Cost \$ 2 22 0.3 Profit \$ 2 23 0.2 Understock - \$1 / Profit: -\$1 24 0.2 Over-stock -1 / Profit : -\$3
• a. Determine the optimum quantity to stock per week.

 b. What is the expected value of perfect information? Payoff Table 20 21 22 24 23 20 40 39 38 36 37 37.8 21 39 42 41 39 40 40.4 22 38 41 44 43 42 42.2 23 37 40 43 45 46 42.8 24 36 39 45 42 42.6 48 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2

Expected Profit with Perfect Information = 40(0.1) + 42(0.2) + 44(0.3) + 46(0.2) +48(0.2) = 44.4 Expected Opportunity Loss with Perfect Information = 44.4 42.8 = 1.6

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MGT 3500

Review #1

 Regret 20 21 22 23 24 Table 20 3 (1) 0 6 9 12 6.6 21 1 (2) 0 3 6 9 4 22 2 0 1 3 6 2.2 23 3 1 2 0 3 1.6 24 4 2 3 1 0 1.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2

(1) Supply :20 ; Demand : 21 (21 -20) X 3[Loss in sale \$2 & Demand not \$1] = 3

(2) Supply: 21 ; Demand :20 (20 – 21) X 1 [Sale in cat food plate & loss profit from orgin. sale \$1]

=1

Marginal Analysis

 1 1 = 3 + 1 Probablity Stock 0.1 1 20 0.2 21 0.9 0.3 22 0.7 0.2 23 0.4 0.2 24 0.2 3

= 4 = 0.25

+

(10 pts.)

MGT 3500

Review #1

• 3. Solve the following decision tree. Clearly state the decision strategy you determine. S
.55 300
H
T
300X0.55 + 100X0.45
= 165 + 45 = 210
.45
100 C
A
210X0.25 + 20X0.35 + 62.5X0.4
= 31.5 + 70 + 25 = 126.5
.25
H
I
A
D
0
U
.35
20
.25
J
V
.75
E
10X0.25+80X0.75
.40
= 2.5 + 60 = 62.5
J
M
W B
B

F .2

-

50

10

80

 .5 -30 X .5 120 Y .4 500 Z .6

200

150

100

50 N -30X.5 + 120X0.5 = -15 +600 = 45

Q AA

.3 BB
.4
CC
.3 B
50X0.2 + 320X0.8
= 100 + 256 = 356 G .8
Q

500X0.4+200X0.6

= 200+120 = 320

R

150X0.3+100X0.4+50X0.3

= 45+40+15 = 100

Choosing If choose the alternative B occurs, there are decision of F and G appeared. Choose Q as an alternative, decision Q and R occurs. Choose Q as an alternative, decision Y and Z will occur.

4

(30 pts.)

MGT 3500

Review #1

• 4. Consider the following linear programming problem

 Maximize 8X 1 + 7X 2 X 1 + X 2 ≤ 8 s.t. 15X 1 + 5X 2 ≤ 75 10X 1 + 6X 2 ≤ 60 X 1 , X 2 ≥ 0
• a. Use a graph to show each constraint and the feasible region. 15X 1 + 5X 2 75 Let X 1 = 0 15(0) + 5X 2 = 75 X 2 = 15 Point: (0, 15), (5, 0) 10X 1 + 6X 2 60 Let X 1 = 0 10(0) + 6X 2 = 60 X 2 = 10 Point: (0, 10), (6, 0) X 1 + X 2 8 Point: (0,8), (8, 0)

Let X 2 = 0 15X 1 + 5(0) = 75 X 1 = 5

Let X 2 = 0 10X 1 + 6(0) = 60 X 1 = 6 Be carful of the feasible area, it depends on max. or min. Max. Insides the line Min. outsides the line

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MGT 3500

Review #1

• b. Identify the optimal solution point on your graph. What are the values of X 1 and X 2 at the optimal solution?

 Point A: Line: S.t. 3 = X 1 + X 2 ≤ 8 Point A: (0, 8) [From the graph] Point B:

Line: S.t.2 : S.t. 3 = (10X 1 + 6X 2 60) : (X 1 + X 2 8) 10X 1 + 6X 2 = 60 -) 6 (X 1 + X 2 = 8) 4X 1 + 0X 2 = 12 X 1 = 3 Plug X 1 = 3 into either S.t. 2 or S.t. 3:

S.t. 3: (3) + X 2 = 8 X 2 = 5

Point B: (3, 5)

Point C:

Line: S.t. 1 : S.t. 3 = 15X 1 + 5X 2 75 : X 1 + X 2 8 15X 1 + 5X 2 = 75 -) 5(X 1 + X 2 = 8) 10 X 1 + 0X 2 = 35 X 1 = 3.5 Plug X 1 = 3 into either S.t. 1 or S.t. 3:

S.t. 3 : (3.5) + X 2 = 8 X 2 = 4.5

Point C: (3.5, 4.5)

 Point D: Line: S.t. 3 = X 1 + X 2 ≤ 8 Point D: (8, 0) [From the graph] c. What is the optimal value of the objective function? Plug the point found in (b) into Maximize 8X 1 + 7X 2 : Point A: (0, 8) Point B: (3, 5) 8(0) + 7(8) = 56 8(3) + 7(5) = 59 Point C: (3.5, 4.5) 8(3.5)+7(4.5) = 59.5 ! MAX = Optimize Point D: (8, 0) 8(8) + 7(0) = 48
• d. What is the slack or surplus value for each of the constraints at the optimal solution? [Plug the optimal value into each constrains] S 1 : S 1 +15(3.5) + 5(4.5) = 75 S 1 + 75 = 75

6

MGT 3500

Review #1

S 1 = 0

S S 2 +10(3.5) + 6(4.5) = 60 S 2 + 62 = 60 S 2 = 2

2

:

S S 3 + 3.5 + 4.5 = 8 S 3 = 0

3

:

(20 pts.)

• 5. We want to select an advertising strategy to reach two types of customers: homemakers in families with over \$50,000 annual income and homemakers in families with under \$50,000 income. We feel that people in the first group will purchase twice as much of our product as people in the second group, and our goal is to maximize purchases. We may advertise either on TV or in a magazine; one unit of TV advertising costs \$20,000 and reaches approximately 2,000 people in the first group and 8,000 people in the second group. One unit of advertising in the magazine costs \$12,000 and reaches 6,000 people in the first group and 3,000 people in the second group. We require that at least 6 units on TV advertising be used and that no more than 12 units of magazine advertising be used, for policy reasons. The advertising budget is \$180,000. Formulate this problem as a linear programming problem. Clearly define your decision variables and identify what each constraint refers to.

 Cost Group 1 Group 2 Min. Require TV 20,000 2,000 8,000 6 Magazine 12,000 6,000 3,000 12 Maximize X (2,000 X 2) + 8,000 X (6,000 X 2) + 3,000 Equation 1 = 12,000 2 = 15,000

Let X 1 = number of unit sale from TV advertised; X 2 = number of unit sale from Magazine advertised Maximize 12,000 X 1 +15,000X 2 Constraint 20,000 X 1 +12,000 X 2 180,000 X 1 ≥ 6

X

2 12

X 1 , X 2 ≥ 0

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