POLICY

POLICY
PAPER
PAPER

European issues
n341
27 January 2015
th

Thinking towards the

future. French and German
businesspeople and their
expectations for 2025

Claire Demesmay

As a consequence of the financial, economic and social crisis, the economy now lies at the heart of

and Barbara Kunz [1]

much of the public debate in Europe. Business competitiveness, consolidation of government finance,
structural reform buzzwords that worry or reassure these expressions punctuate the speeches
made by European political leaders, often without their meaning being defined however. With electoral
campaigns and news programmes people have become familiar with a language that for most used
to be of distant concern in their daily lives. Although we know about the positions of political leaders,
economists and other intellectuals and although Franco-German divergence over economic issues
has been clearly identified, we know less about what economic players are expecting whilst they
represent a major part of civil society and the issues being debated involve them first and foremost.

This is why we thought it necessary to look into the

representatives of traditional industry, as well as

way business representatives see the challenges that

digital economy start-ups. By comparing these four

their country, or more widely Europe, is facing; this

categories, we were able to pick out a certain number

includes the risks and opportunities that they associate

of trends in terms of how economic players view the

with the future. The exercise comprised interviewing

future. The latter, who are all executives within their

economic players in 2014 in both France and Germany,

respective structures, have not been named. However

the two biggest economies in the euro zone, known for

anonymous quotations taken from the interviews

both their recurrent disagreements and their ability to

illustrate their thoughts. In the end, it seems quite

compromise. They were asked to imagine the situation

clear how the positions of these business leaders differ

in 2025 a timeframe that made various scenarios

or not from those of the political leaders in their

possible without becoming detached from the present;

countries; also on which issues the French and German

in other words, it encouraged those interviewed to use

economic players agree, or on the contrary, disagree.

their imaginations but not to fantasize. During these

semi-structured interviews around 20 business leaders

IN BRIEF

spoke about the future of their national society, the EU,

as well as the world context.

In both France and Germany, there are common fears.

Hence, economic players in both countries are equally

1. Claire Demesmay is
head of a Franco-German
programme at the German
Council on Foreign Relations
(DGAP) in Berlin. Barbara
Kunz is project leader with
the European Dialogue Thinking Political Europe at
Genshagen Foundation.

In no way does our study pretend to be exhaustive but

concerned about business competitiveness from an

it aims to show a view of the future held by economic

immediate point of view in France, in the short and

players on either side of the Rhine. For this to be as

mid-term in Germany whilst regretting the lack of

representative as possible, we picked out a variety

strategy on the part of their political leaders. And

of firms with different profiles. Amongst these, there

yet, their view of the future is still marked by distinct

were both very large companies, which are leaders

national traditions. When it comes to assessing the

in the world market and extremely specialised SMEs,

challenges their countries will face over the next ten

FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N341 / 27TH JANUARY 2015

Thinking towards the future. French and German businesspeople and their expectations for 2025

years the differences between the French and the

believe the fact that the German population is ageing

Germans interviewed are stronger than those observed

and decreasing in size also affects infrastructure

between the representatives of the economy and the

requirements and housing, the organisation of rural

political decision makers of the same country.

areas, as well as the dynamics of domestic policy.

Concern linked to demography also explains why many

Generally, concern about the future seems to be more

economic players in Germany approve and call for an

acute in France than in Germany and goes hand in

active immigration policy.

hand with doubts and questions about the countrys

2. The report on strengthening

investments in Germany
ordered by the Federal Economy
Minister Sigmar Gabriel, by a
committee of experts headed
by the Chairman of the German
Economics Institute (DIW) is an
exception to the rule.
3. Jrme Fourquet, Crise et

economic, social and societal model. Proof of this lies in

On the list of future challenges, issues related to

the numerous reports published or ordered recently by

energy and the energy policy follow very close

the government and to which many business leaders

behind demographic transition. The energy revolution

have contributed, whilst conversely, this is less palpable

(Energiewende) is perceived as an extremely ambitious

in Germany [2]. The latter show a sharp awareness of

political project, which is both negative and positive.

the challenges linked to the worlds development and

Economic players believe that it is highly explosive for

look into what makes the French identity specific in

the German domestic policy and will have major impact

a globalised context. None of this exists in Germany,

on the countrys economic power. At the same time

where the tradition of public reports has no equivalent

they believe that global warming, to which geopolitical

but where players do not especially feel that they are

factors might be added, make it essential to reorient

experiencing a major period of transition. This attitude

climate policy and therefore the countrys energy policy.

is not specific to the economic and political elites, but

And although they believe that the challenges are

can also be found within the population. As recalled

massive, they do hope that the technological solutions

by the polls, the level of citizens optimism about the

provided will enable German industry to position itself

future differs greatly from one country to another. [3]

towards export both in the mid and long-term.

German economic players see the future with a certain

Conversely in France, economic players say they are

degree of optimism. They are encouraged in this by

concerned: their view of the future is full of doubt

the comparison of the German situation with that of

and questions. They are entirely aware of living in a

their European neighbours. Indeed, they believe that

period of transition associated with major technological

the country is doing well, notably thanks to positive

changes, which imply considerable adaptation on the

growth rates and a relatively low unemployment rate.

part of the countrys socio-economic model. Having

However, this optimistic attitude does not mean that

said this, they are far from sharing the declinist view

the Germans interviewed have no concerns about the

of many intellectuals and are confident about the

next few years or decades. On the contrary, many warn

possible revival of the French economy. Most stress

against the temptation, on Germanys part, to take

Frances strengths and the potential of its businesses if

things for granted and not prepare adequately for the

the latter were to have a more favourable framework

future. We should note that the concerns expressed

for action. Unsurprisingly, there is a consensus in

are not always precisely defined, but refer to increasing

terms of reducing the wage burden and red-tape.

insecurity, the growing difficulty in planning and above

However, doubts about the ability of the government

all, the inability of political leaders to provide real

to undertake reform are such that in the end they lead

answers to the challenges facing the country.

to a pessimistic attitude.

The first of these challenges is also specific to Germany:

The main concern of the French is of almost philosophical

demographic transition. Although its impact on the

character. It focuses on the strength of the republican

labour market worries economic players, who already

model, since those interviewed are worried about the

find it hard to recruit and win the loyalty of qualified

tension that is running through French society and

staff, the latter do not just focus on this aspect. They

in their opinion, this tension threatening the harmony

situation conomique: regards

croiss franco-allemands, Jean
Jaurs Foundation /FriedrichEbert-Stiftung, 8 December
2014, http://www.jean-jaures.
org/Publications/Notes/Regardscroises-France-Allemagne-surla-situation-economique-et-lesrelations-franco-allemandes

FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N341 / 27TH JANUARY 2015

Thinking towards the future. French and German businesspeople and their expectations for 2025

of the French way of living-together. Given the

and Germans seem to agree on the need to draw up

growing social and cultural differences, interviewees

strategies and visions; they also deem the answers

especially fear that equal opportunities will no longer

provided by the government to these issues as

be guaranteed. Hence their virulent criticism and

inadequate. Regarding the sustainability of society and

their high expectations of the national education

its adaptation to tomorrows world, they take a severe

system. Beyond that, the main concern about the

view of the action taken by their political leaders: whilst

future of the social contract is linked to doubts about

challenges related to the future are known, little is

the sustainability of French identity, whilst diversity is

done to face them. However, it is not just governments,

increasingly visible in the public sphere.

but elites in general who are criticised as far as their

difficulty of planning for the future is concerned. In

In this light, it is not surprising that the second

this context, it is striking that Germanys comfortable

challenge identified by the French is social cohesion.

economic situation makes business leaders cautious:

Although mass unemployment, particularly of young

several of them warn against taking things for granted

people was not spoken of much during the interviews,

or being arrogant vis--vis weaker economic partners.

the fear of seeing the country divided between the

The other common point between the French and

privileged and the underprivileged is certainly real.

the Germans involves relations with the EU. In both

Many believe that the gap is growing between them,

countries the idea that Europe is a project of peace

well-paid employees and civil servants with access

and civilisation remains strongly present and benefits

to technologies and financing on the one hand, and

from a positive connotation. The common market is

workers and some civil servants on the other, who have

also seen to be self-evident and is due to remain so. As

little training and low social protection. Likewise, they

for the crisis affecting the euro zone, this is a source of

are concerned about the erosion real or perceived

concern for most economic players who often wonder

of the countrys middle class.

more markedly in Germany, where there is perhaps

more sentiment regarding the European project

Social cohesion is not disconnected from the third of

about the sustainability and continuation of European

the major challenges identified by French economic

integration.

players, i.e. the economic crisis and the competitive

position of businesses. Although many doubt the

During these interviews, the question often arose about

ability or the will of the government to introduce the

the crisis in the euro zone and its effects, notably in

necessary conditions for improved competitiveness, all

terms of institutional structure and the continuation of

share the same observation that the French economy

integration: amongst the issues, budgetary policy and

has assets. Hence, they note that businesses benefit

fiscal union are most discussed. Whilst the Germans

from relatively cheap electricity supplies and sound

insist on the need for reform to end the crisis and also

infrastructures and recall that France is the world

criticise France on this point, their French colleagues

leader in many areas of activity. But to strengthen

call for greater solidarity and cohesion. In this light,

their business position they believe it urgent, apart

the French are more numerous in hoping for the

from implementing reform to put a stop to the brain-

emergence of a political union that can make its voice

drain, which is affecting start-ups in particular and to

heard in the international arena and for it to benefit

support innovation in a more targeted manner. Several

from military competences to be able do this.

interviewees also criticise the cumbersome nature

of French industry that is dominated by some major

In addition to this, in both countries, Brussels is

companies and regret that strategic industrial policy

perceived as the central mainstay of European policy,

decisions are not very innovative. Many expect their

actively involved in the drafting of a framework of

leaders to be courageous and to dare to take risks.

action for businesses even creating it as has been

the case with competition policy or any other field in

In spite of the differences in their approach, the French

which the Treaties confer (exclusive) competencies

27TH JANUARY 2015 / EUROPEAN ISSUES N341 / FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN

Thinking towards the future. French and German businesspeople and their expectations for 2025

to the EU level. It is in France that we find the most

In spite of this, the view the Germans interviewed have

virulent criticism of European policy. The European

of the future is not completely void of concern, which

Commission is accused of not having understood that

is especially linked to the sustainability of German

businesses

do not merely operate within the single

society and European policy. Indeed, the interviews

market but around the world and that European

highlight a relatively vague fear which focuses both

champions should be created - even though this

on increasing insecurity, greater difficulty in planning

would lead to monopolies on a European level. Whilst

economic and political activity and also and above all,

the Germans accuse the Commission of interfering

the incapacity of political decision makers to plan for

too much in States business, there is a consensus

the future and to provide answers to the associated

amongst the French that a pro-active industrial policy

challenges. There seems to be a consensus about the

has to be undertaken both in Brussels and Paris.

fact that the present solutions, no matter how effective

they are right now, will not always work. The world

French and German business leaders, who face the

surrounding Germany changes too much for this, and

same challenges, continue to expect different things

things moreover evolve ever more quickly, be it at

of the European policy. In part these reflect a way of

national, European or world level.

thinking that has shaped the approach adopted by the

political leaders for decades, and this, independently

In this context, most business leaders believe it vital,

of partisan differences. From this standpoint, industrial

short of drafting an overall strategy for the future,

policy highlights an ongoing misunderstanding between

at least to develop concepts to enable adaptation

the French and the Germans.

to tomorrows challenges. Of course, we know what

these challenges are, their main outline at least, but

SATISFACTION AND FEELING OF WEAKNESS:

the answers to provide to them seem inadequate. It

THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE GERMAN MODEL

is mainly the political establishment that is deemed

UNDER DEBATE

responsible for this situation, but also more widely

the countrys elites, whether this implies intellectuals,

The view that the Germans the business leaders and

scientists or those involved in civil society. More

representatives that we interviewed at least have

or less vehemently, those interviewed criticise the

of the near future is relatively optimistic. It has to be

political classes for their lack of vision a criticism

said that, right now, there are good reasons for this.

which appeared as a leitmotif in all of the interviews

The country is in a position of strength, particularly

undertaken in Germany.

if compared to its European neighbours: amongst

the criteria quoted are high growth rates and lower

NATIONAL CHALLENGES

unemployment than in most other EU Member States.

A strong Germany, the campaign slogan which Angela

Whilst most German business leaders acknowledge

Merkels Christian Democratic Union (CDU) adopted for

that their country is doing well, they are quite aware

the Bundestag election in 2013 seems to match the

that it is a momentary impression, supported by the

attitude of German economic players. This might be

comparison with other European States, which are

summarised by the following statement: Lets keep

in a difficult economic situation. Moreover, those

this up, this making greater or smaller adjustments.

interviewed note that Germany faces a series of

Of course German businessmen are not indifferent to

problems, some of which like demographic change

demographic transition, the euro zone crisis, climate

or the energy revolution are specific to the country

change and energy change, the exit from nuclear power

and are not so acute in the neighbouring countries.

decided by the previous government and continued by

According to this widely shared analysis, it is likely

the current grand coalition. However, in view of the

that in a few decades time the German situation will

German situation and the countrys future prospects,

be completely different and not necessarily better.

they very often view these challenges positively.

Hence, basing oneself on Germanys good economic

FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N341 / 27TH JANUARY 2015

Thinking towards the future. French and German businesspeople and their expectations for 2025

health when thinking about the future is not an option

the next few years will, on the contrary, consist of

for anyone.

inventing a new relation vis--vis the employment of

the older generations. This notably means working

Preparing for demographic transition

longer in order to protect the fundamental elements

of the retirement system.

According to those interviewed, demographic transition

is the greatest of these domestic challenges and at

The fact that the German population is ageing and also

the same time it is specific to Germany in comparison

decreasing will also impact other aspects of society:

with other major European countries. Many companies

infrastructures and housing, the organisation of rural

are already finding it difficult to recruit staff as they

areas which are less and less populous particularly

would like due to a lack of qualified and motivated

in the eastern part of Germany as well as domestic

labour. Very soon, the problem will worsen. To this we

political relations. This widely shared observation

might add the fact mentioned by one SME executive

explains why a major share of our interviewees

that young people have a different approach from

approves immigration, even calling for it explicitly.

their elders to their career: many young people believe

In their opinion, it has indeed become necessary to

that a high salary and a prestigious post are far from

design an overall immigration and integration policy.

being sufficient reasons for accepting or keeping a

Some of them even want this to happen at the EU

job; the balance between professional and private life,

level. At the same time, most economic players

as well as personal satisfaction at work, are equally

believe that although the problems and challenges

important criteria. In a context in which the labour

of demographic transition are now well known, policy

force is decreasing, these expectations are not without

is not rising to it, leaving questions without answers.

effect on businesses personnel policy which are keen

Of course, political leaders organise regular summits

to gain the loyalty of their employees. Finally, to be

and other political forums devoted to demography

seen as attractive employers, businesses are being

but they do not develop any strategies to address

forced to adopt new approaches in order to meet the

the issue in a thoughtful, coherent manner for the

requirements of new employees.

long term.

That said, all of those interviewed say that the

Supporting the energy revolution

problems caused by demographic transition are not

(and even more so in the future) just confined

On the list of challenges that will be decisive for

to

implies

Germanys future, demographic transition is followed

guaranteeing the financial sustainability of the social

the

labour

market.

Beyond

this,

it

closely by energy and energy policy issues which

systems as they stand, and therefore to ensure

on several occasions during the interviews appear

the sustainability of the social contract on which

to be key. Interviewees are perfectly aware that the

Germany is founded. In this context we should not be

energy challenge is multi-facetted. Exiting nuclear

surprised at the sharp criticism raised by the reform

power was often qualified as an extremely ambitious

of the retirement system undertaken by the grand

political project. Business leaders generally believe

coalition, which some qualify as a catastrophe

that the issue is an explosive charge for German

and politically clientelist: with its decision to bring

domestic policy and that its impact on the countrys

the retirement age down to 63, whilst demographic

economic power is potentially tremendous. Notably

transition is a threat, the federal government has

in comparison with France, the cost of electricity is

sent out the wrong message. The reduction of the

clearly higher in Germany, which of course affects

retirement age from 65 to 63 will cost 60 billion

the competitiveness of German businesses. At the

up to 2030 [4], and will be financed by the youngest

same time, some of those interviewed believe that

generations. Many economic players believe that the

climate change, the impact of which is increasingly

major challenge that German society will face over

irrefutable, leaves no other choice but to rethink

27TH JANUARY 2015 / EUROPEAN ISSUES N341 / FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN

4. Under the grand coalition it

was decided in the summer of
2014 to reduce the retirement
age to 63 for people who had
contributed for 45 years. Le
Parti social-dmocrate (SPD)
en avait fait une promesse de
campagne.

Thinking towards the future. French and German businesspeople and their expectations for 2025

climate policy in depth, and therefore, at the same

political leaders to be honest about the opportunities

time, German and European energy policy. In

and dangers inherent to these challenges.

several instances, German interviewees also showed

concern about the difficult geopolitical situation in

We are playing it by ear, particularly the Chancellor.

which European countries now find themselves with

There is no long term strategy.

respect to energy security, as well as Germanys

dependence, along with its neighbours, on energy

Although the Federal Chancellor does not take a clear

imports.

stance on fundamental issues, her attitude is perceived

as the hidden part of the iceberg. In the eyes of those

At the same time, many stress the potential that a

interviewed, the entire German political class is failing

new energy policy would release, which in any event

in terms of planning for the future. Several interviewees

has become inevitable. Although it is undeniable that

moreover believe that there are fewer and fewer

this goes together with immense difficulties, the

members of government who understand economic

technological solutions that will have to be found

processes and that dialogue between politicians and

might become flagship products from which the export

the economy could be improved. Economic players do

economy would draw benefit. Hence the importance

not just criticise politicians for this lack of vision, but the

of setting store by an innovative energy policy, as

elites in general. Indeed many believe that the latter fail

well as energy efficiency, so that Germany will retain

in their mission to make proposals and are incapable

its technological advance long term. Some regret

of delivery. Negative societal pressure resulting from

however that this policy is not being implemented with

this situation is all the more problematic since, in their

greater courage and determination and want political

opinion, most of tomorrows challenges will grow over

leaders to make greater commitment especially to

the next few years.

research and development. This expectation targets

But

national decision makers as well as the European

problems demographic transition, energy revolution

Commission, whose support programmes to research

and lack of political vision with the Federal Republics

were mentioned on several occasions.

strong points. Amongst these, they regularly boast their

business

leaders

counterbalance

these

three

approach to sustainability in the widest sense of the term

Developing a political vision

e.g. the determination of social partners always to

look for viable, long-term solutions. Likewise, several of

5. In virtue of this several

business leaders criticise
growing academisation which
impedes response to economic
requirements: it is not necessary
for everyone to study because
in the end businesses will lack
experienced personnel, whilst
young university graduates often
know nothing about real life
and find it hard to integrate into
company life.

More generally, a majority of the business leaders

them speak of social players tendency to lay emphasis

interviewed believe that courage and determination

on common sense, to share costs and profits. In their

are the qualities most lacking amongst German

opinion, this is also one of the German decision makers

decision makers. Regarding the sustainability of

greatest strengths that must be preserved. The more

German society, interviewees have limited confidence

interviewees have experienced other national contexts

in

several

in the past, the more marked this observation. The

occasions, they accuse the federal government and

their

countrys

political

leaders.

On

German system, oriented towards consensus, is deemed

more particularly the Chancellor for their lack of

particularly apt when it is compared to the one in France.

vision and for having no strategic thinking. Although

In this context economic players point to the readiness

major challenges in the future have been identified,

for dialogue in German society which, in their opinion, is

i.e. demographic transition, climate change and the

rarely found elsewhere whether this is in the European

ability to develop a sustainable energy policy, little

Union beyond. The Rhine Model and notably the social

or nothing is being done in their opinion, to rise

partnership (Sozialpartnerschaft) between employers

to these. Political decision makers tend to ignore

and employees enjoys a very positive image overall to

burning issues, several interviewees note. But

the extent that most of those interviewed see in this a

it would be both necessary and urgent for German

model one that deserves to be exported, likewise the

society to be able to debate these issues and also for

dual professional training system. [5]

FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N341 / 27TH JANUARY 2015

Thinking towards the future. French and German businesspeople and their expectations for 2025

EUROPE AND THE WORLD

of peace, which they also approve, many perceive

that the achievements of integration are now being

The acquis of European Integration

challenged. Hence several of them say they fear that

the present crisis will release centripetal forces that

As soon as the focus is no longer on Germany, but on

will threaten the European project underlining that

the EU as a whole, the business representatives that

they think this way as European citizens and not as

we met are concerned about the acquis of European

Germans, concerned about pan-European interests.

integration. Generally, the idea of a united Europe is

Differences in prosperity within the EU seem to worry

viewed positively and they believe that the European

them more than anything else and not just because

way of life is attractive and worth preserving. At the

this impacts markets (and therefore outlets for German

same time, they are just as worried about the euro

businesses), but because this affects the heart of the

zone crisis and its many consequences which

European project. In this context, businessmen are

they feel in their companies as they are more

often extremely critical of France, which is deemed to

fundamentally about the protection and deepening of

be Europes sick man across the board. A majority

European integration. Although Europe is important

of those interviewed believe that France has more

in the interviews, the matter is generally addressed

potential than is generally spoken of in public debate.

from two different angles. On the one hand, there are

However, although the French economy is doing better

topical economic issues, like the euro zone crisis and its

than that of Spain or Italy, the governments incapacity

implications going as far as debate over institutional

to undertake necessary reform leads to fears of major

reform and deepened integration, notably in terms of

problems within the next few years. In the darkest

budgetary policy and fiscal union. On the other hand,

scenario, France might even take Europe with it into

businessmen and women often speak of Brussels as

the abyss.

a central player in European policy, which actively sets

the rules for the environment companies operate in, as

Germany must not become arrogant

with the competition policy for example.

Regarding the diagnosis of the euro zone crisis,

We cannot allow for nationalism/chauvinism, as some

opinions differ greatly to the extent that it is difficult

political leaders have done in the euro crisis.

to define a clear trend on the issue. Some of those

interviewed believe that the European Union has now

But not everyone is so pessimistic. Some interviewees

overcome the crisis, whilst others maintain that this

conversely believe that under the pressure of the crisis,

is far from being the case and for this reason notably,

the 28 Member States will be forced to undertake

they seek the salvation of their businesses on distant

institutional reform and take steps that are necessary

markets, outside of the European Union. Opinions also

for Europe. Since this pressure has always worked as

differ when it comes to the management of the crisis by

Europe has developed, they hope that the euro zone

the European institutions and national governments.

crisis will have positive effects at the end of the day. In

However, given the generally optimistic view that

this context, some economic players yet wonder about

business representatives have of the German situation,

Germanys role in the EU and warn of arrogance and

they do not seem to see the crisis and its management

a lack of maturity on the part of German decision

as a direct threat to the German economy.

makers when it comes to Germanys strengths. They

call on the latter to be more modest. Economic players

Southern Europe is totally adrift

are aware that present economic developments in

Europe are a potential threat to the European project

Beyond the euro zone crisis and its immediate

and that, in this context, Germanys relative success

economic implications, the Germans we met tended

could turn against it. To be despised as is the best

to worry about the future of European integration.

pupil in class as one of the interviewees summarized

Although they generally view Europe as a project

it is not a very enviable fate. Yet trends of this kind

27TH JANUARY 2015 / EUROPEAN ISSUES N341 / FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN

Thinking towards the future. French and German businesspeople and their expectations for 2025

have already become visible in everyday business

employees and colleagues), notably by way of language

life. Interviewees are hence not just worried about

courses and intercultural training. These efforts are not

the institutional framework and the common market

always crowned with success however, as some note.

in terms of the acquis of European integration. They

It is not surprising that the economic players who

also fear that the rapprochement of the populations

regret the lack of opening on the world on the part of

ongoing since the end of the Second World War may

their fellow countrymen are those who have the most

suffer setbacks as a result of the crisis.

experience abroad. In their opinion, it is important for

the Germans, and particularly the 50+ generation, to

The greatest danger is Europes isolation.

acquire more intercultural communication methods

and to leave provincial world-views behind. In view of

As for Brussels work, opinions are varied, sometimes

this, an executive, familiar with the French and German

contradictory. A majority of those interviewed criticise

business culture, goes as far as talking of inbreeding

the European Commission for its regulatory excesses

when considering the regional establishment of some

which is now a commonplace comment and of

major German enterprises and views this tendency

interfering too much in States business. At the same

as an impediment to understanding the complex

time, many ask for more Europe in specific political

nature of external risks. Those interviewed believe

fields, notably in terms of research and development

that entrepreneurs are more at ease with globalisation

for example in support of the creation of new areas of

than political leaders, but again in spite of the English

activity via technological innovation. This is particularly

lessons and the interest in distant markets they

true in the areas of climate and energy, which are of

believe there is some catching up to do.

great interest to businessmen. Beyond this, the latter

also expect the European institutions and not just

The world is our terrain

the federal government to give greater support to

the creation of businesses. In this context, they often

In terms of prices, we have no chance on the world

speak of the European competition policy. One of

market. We have to focus on quality, on the label

the main questions raised is whether the European

Made in Germany

Commission should not start to consider the world

as a whole as a reference framework rather than just

This said, all of the German players interviewed believe

looking at the single market.

that their companys chances on the world markets are

good, very good even. Many of them continue to lay

A winning Germany in a globalised world

emphasis on the traditional factors of German quality

work, thanks to which they believe it possible today

Economic players are now operating at a global level,

and in the future to pitch themselves against cheaper

including the representatives of SMEs. In a world

competitors, who also offer poorer quality. The success

where the economy is highly integrated, all of those

of the countrys export model can be explained, in their

interviewed consider Germany to be a winner in a

opinion, by the quality of German products. Hence the

globalised world. Most of those we interviewed believe

need to protect the guarantee for quality that Made

that the (economic) future now lies outside of Europe,

in Germany has become in spite of increasing

in that global markets have become more interesting

manufacturing costs and possible relocations to client-

than the German or European markets. Although

countries and to develop it actively. One business

this observation is not just linked to the euro zone

leader wondered however about the meaning of Made

crisis, the latter seems to have encouraged a certain

in Germany in a world where more and more products

number of businesses, amongst the ones we met,

are designed, manufactured and consumed in China.

to turn more to non-European markets. Since they

He concluded with a warning: the image of German

consider it increasingly normal to act on a global

quality will last a certain amount of time but it can only

level, entrepreneurs are preparing for it (just like their

be sustained if it is justified.

FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N341 / 27TH JANUARY 2015

Thinking towards the future. French and German businesspeople and their expectations for 2025

When it came to discussing the globalised economy

upcoming digital age seem to fascinate people. At the

during these interviews, the transatlantic relationship

same time, these developments are often perceived as

played a secondary role. Most of the time interviewees

potential sources of instability, likely also to impact the

were indifferent to the scandal of American spying and

organisation of social relations, as well as the balance

the NSA. As for the free-trade agreement between the

between the major poles of global power.

EU and the USA (Transatlantic Trade and Investment

Partnership, TTIP), whilst negotiations are on-going,

The interviews that were undertaken did yet not reflect

economic players are only slightly interested in it, as

a depressed discourse, as seen in many publications

they generally only talked about the issue if they were

over the last few years, in terms of French declinism.

asked about it. Most of the executives interviewed

Frances assets and those of Europe in a globalised

believe that a transatlantic free-trade zone will not

environment, marked by an increase in trade and a race

provide many advantages to their activities; some of

to be competitive, were regularly highlighted by the

them even believe that, in any case, the negotiations

interviewees. The latter notably speak of the strength

will not be concluded. In their opinion, there are more

and results produced by French businesses which,

dynamic markets than the North American one and so

if they had a more favourable fiscal and regulatory

their priority lies elsewhere.

framework, would again be able to win in the global

competition. Whilst they are confident in their countrys

Global

its

businesses and particularly in their own, interviewees

consequences (in South East Asia and in all other

challenges

like

climate

change

and

often mention their doubts and questions about the

regions, which unlike Europe, are concerned directly

governments ability to undertake vital reforms within

and massively by the phenomenon), international

the necessary timeframe. This makes them pessimistic

migration flows and inter-state conflicts play a small

to a certain degree.

role in the way economic players see the future.

On the whole, the latter are aware of the serious

On this point, it is revealing that the interviewees are

problems that are emerging globally and are worried

sensitive to the danger of fragmentation. They often

about their potentially dangerous effects in the years

talk about a France whose social fabric has been

to come. At the same time, from a geographical and

weakened, but also a European Union that they believe

psychological point of view, these factors are far away

threatened by national egotism. It is of course worth

from strong Germany and do not affect it directly. This

noting that all of these interviews have taken place

is particularly true of global warming: although many

long before the January 7 attacks on Charlie Hebdo

competitiveness which Louis

feel concerned by this challenge from a professional

and the ensuing debates. Concern about maintaining

given to the Prime Minister

point of view, they only read it through the federal

cohesion and solidarity and again, at both a national

in April 2012, http://www.

governments energy policy lense, which is of course

and European level, was recurrent. Generally, a great

fr/var/storage/rapports-

only an extremely limited aspect of it.

deal is expected of the European Union. Although there

are many critics of Brussels policy, it is often said that

6. This is the report on French

Gallois was asked to write and

ladocumentationfrancaise.
publics/124000591/0000.
pdf ; of the report by the
Innovation Committee 2030,

THE FRENCH ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE

France needs a pro-active European policy in order to

chaired by Anne Lauvergeon,

FUTURE: FEAR OF COLLAPSE

be able to face the future in the right conditions.

President of the Republic,

delivered in April 2013 to the

http://innovation-2030.
entreprises.gouv.fr/pdf/

The

overall

impression

that

emerges

from

the

This concern is not one shared just by business leaders.

Rapport_Innovation_BDV4.

interviews undertaken in France is that economic

Assessments undertaken within administrative bodies

Quelle France dans dix ans ?

players look to the future with concern, doubt and

and even by personalities in economic life on the request

questions. This reflects an acute awareness of living in

of the government bear witness to deep uncertainty

a period of transition in which the world is considerably

about the countrys ability to ensure the sustainability

changing and in which France can only succeed if it

of its model. Looking at some of these reports [6]

makes some major changes to its socio-economic

(although they at first seem to extend beyond the

model. In this context, technological changes and the

present context) is very interesting because leading

27TH JANUARY 2015 / EUROPEAN ISSUES N341 / FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN

pdf; and the report entitled

by the Commissariat gnral
la stratgie et la prospective
(France Stratgie), delivered to
the President of the Republic
and the Prime Minister in June
2014, www.strategie.gouv.
fr/sites/strategie.gouv.fr/
files/atoms/files/f10_rapport_
final_23062014_1.pdf .

Thinking towards the future. French and German businesspeople and their expectations for 2025

10

economic players have participated in their writing, like

difficulty in guaranteeing a satisfactory level of

Anne Lauvergeon, the former Chairman of the Board of

solidarity whether this involves people, generations,

Areva and Louis Gallois, the former head of EADS; and

territories and even between the States of Europe.

because they also include analyses that mainly match

those of the business representatives we met.

French society is like a family that has run out of

momentum. There could be political crises, mini latent

Whilst they naturally are more detailed than the

civil wars, communities which rebel.

interviews, these reports which have no counterpart

in Germany do confirm what was said by the business

In this context, the first split to be identified is of a

leaders we talked with.

cultural nature. The emergence of increasingly visible

diversity, asserted in the public sphere, goes hand in

NATIONAL CHALLENGES

hand with the fear of seeing French society break up.

Whilst one businesswoman of North-African descent

If we discuss how France will be in 2025, the three

points to impediments linked to daily discrimination,

main challenges that economic players mention are the

notably on the labour market, other economic players

upkeep of social cohesion, the determination to end

warn against a France that is trying to organise

government debt and the completion of reform as well

solidarity based on community membership. Behind

as the ability to find an economic model that provides

this observation of weakened social cohesion and

jobs. These challenges all reflect the observation

a potentially threatened future, we find the same

that the model on which Frances socio-economic

disappointment, mixed with tension: the Republic is

model is based suffers from structural weaknesses.

finding it increasingly difficult to fulfil its promise of

These weaknesses have increased over the last few

unity and equality. From this point of view, there is

years and need to be rapidly addressed, or otherwise

undoubtedly something specifically French linked to

the countrys future will be compromised. Overall,

the traditional consensus on the Republican discourse.

however, the interviewees we met do not challenge the

In a way, this fear reflects deeper questions about

principles on which the system is based, but they want

the sustainability of Frances identity in a context

to adapt them to the modern age so that they can be

that is destined to become increasingly multi-cultural.

rekindled more easily.

The answers provided to this challenge extend from

encouraging citizens, to their commitment to the fight

Rebuilding social links

to counter discrimination, and to rekindling the role

played by school which is criticised for its inadequacies

Unlike in Germany, concern about the future of the

however as a place where social cohesion is created

Frances population does not focus on ageing. Of

and organised.

course, demography is often mentioned but more as a

strength, including for the future, than as a potential

The second great divide a direct effect of the

danger. On this point, the comparison with Germany is

economic crisis that threatens French society,

a matter of course: like the committee on innovation

according to our interviewees at least, is social order.

led by Anne Lauvergeon, French interlocutors often

Mass unemployment, of young people in particular, is

recalled not without a certain amount of pride that

mentioned very little as such, whilst it is affecting the

there will be more French than Germans in 2030. It

country quite severely. However the interviews reveal

is revealing that the only interviewee to worry about

a vaguer kind of fear of a France that is dividing

the ageing of French society works in the silver

between the privileged who have access to knowledge,

economy and consequently addresses the issue with a

technologies, as well as financing and those who are

professional bias. During the interviews, recurrently

threatened, who face global competition, with low

and almost systematically, concern focuses much more

levels of social protection. On the one hand, there

on the sustainability of social links and the growing

are the employees of the CAC40 firms and financial

FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N341 / 27TH JANUARY 2015

Thinking towards the future. French and German businesspeople and their expectations for 2025

institutions, as well as leading executives in the civil

self-financing levels and therefore their investments

service, and on the other industrial workers and a share

in productivity and innovation. As for the second

of people working in the civil service. We should note

claim which is just as common in the interviews

that this divide does not correspond to a differentiation

it is taken up by the Lauvergeon committee, which

between public/private sectors but is mainly based

identifies regulatory constraints as being one of the

on educational criteria hence, the extremely high

factors that undermines French businesses capacity

expectations of the educational system. The latter is

for innovation.

11

supposed to do away with initial social inequalities and

correct them in line with its primary task, including the

French only find fulfilment in conflict major national

integration of immigrants into French society.

debates. Lets take ourselves in hand and stop

expecting that everything will come from above.

Adapting the economic and financial framework

Several interviewees note that the measures taken by
The other challenge that economic players associate with

the government are moving in the right direction, notably

the countrys future within the next ten years focuses

the Crdit dimpt pour la comptitivit et lemploi (Tax

on its economic and financial choices. Unsurprisingly,

Credit for Competitiveness and Employment, CICE) [7]

given the present debate on the consolidation of

whilst they regret that they were decided upon late in

government finance, interviewees all share the same

the day and that they have not had great effect given

view that France is living beyond it means. Although

the challenges to be faced. In all, there is doubt about

one person worries about how the reduction of the

French political leaders capabilities, whatever their

government debt will affect the way the social system

political leaning, to design and implement ambitious

is financed in the future, all acknowledge that although

projects. Not only are they criticised for not knowing

investments cannot be made in all political areas, it

enough about the fundamentals of the economy, but

has become vital to reduce spending levels and better

also because they are incapable of anticipating the

define the priorities of government action. In the

future and of motivating the population. On several

interviews, however, these priorities are not expressed

occasions, Frances dependency on its creditors is

in a concrete manner, neither are the pace and degree

described as a Damocles Sword, as if the motivation to

of deleveraging.

reform came less from a deep belief than from external

pressure. The prospect of punishment on the part of

Alongside the consolidation of government finance,

the financial markets and a loss of credibility with their

we note the demand for reform that will enable

German partner, if France does not take the necessary

French businesses to increase their margins and

measures, seem to feed the idea that there is no

competitiveness. Again, this is an issue with a high

possible alternative to budgetary discipline and reform.

media profile, debated in the political arena since the

Reform also provides an opportunity to discuss the

electoral campaign of 2012 and which is the focus of

impasse in terms of the confrontational nature of

the Gallois Report. Mainly, we can pinpoint two types

social dialogue. One interviewee is quick to criticise the

of demands: reducing charges in order to reduce

continuation of a 19th century myth in France, which

labour costs and the simplification of administrative

revolves around the idea of an oppressed working class.

regulations.

The report on the improvement of competitiveness of

French industry also devotes a chapter to this issue.

The

first

matches

the

analysis

made

by

the

Deeming that the social pact established at the end of

competitiveness committee, which suggests that given

the Second World War is now obsolete, its authors call

the competition of the industries of Germany and the

for a new one, adapted to the digital age, innovation

emerging countries, French companies have constantly

and globalised trade. France Stratgies report moves

had to reduce their margins in order to remain

in this direction. Its authors note that the hierarchical

competitive. This has forced them to reduce their

nature of French companies adds to the dissatisfaction

27TH JANUARY 2015 / EUROPEAN ISSUES N341 / FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN

7. The CICE is a tax benefit

for companies that take staff
on and reduces their social
charges.

Thinking towards the future. French and German businesspeople and their expectations for 2025

12

of their employees and to a conflictual relationship

a particularly severe opinion of the lack of strategic

with employers. It might be better to value and involve

choice on the part of private decision makers, but also

employees in the governance of the company while also

and especially on the part of the government. One man

fostering collective bargaining in work life these are

regrets that France finds it hard to break away from

the means that might appease social relations within

the traditional industrial model, defined by de Gaulle

companies, thereby making them more productive in

at the time and that it is missing out on technological

the future.

revolutions that will be decisive for the future for

example in the intelligence industry and particularly in

Recommitting to an industrial strategy

biotechnologies.

Directly linked to the adaptation of the economic and

The worrying thing is companies short-term view.

financial framework, the third major challenge focuses

Over the last thirty years, the strategic role of the State

on the need to rebuild a viable, job-creating industrial

has been lost. It has become much more managerial

model. Whilst the re-industrialisation of France is at the

and less strategic.

heart of public debate, a more alarmist tone on the part

of economic players might be expected. But although

More generally thought about the future productive

the latter do fear the erosion of the countrys industrial

model reflects concern about stopping the brain-drain,

base, the only one to mention radical impoverishment

which is primarily affecting start-ups, and supporting

of the French industrial fabric leads an SME established

innovation in a more targeted manner. In the three

far away from Paris. He is also very much aware of the

reports mentioned, the latter point is one of consensus.

specific nature of his position stressing a gap between

France Stratgie acknowledges the weaknesses of

discourse in the capital and the reality of the situation

the French innovation system and advocates new

in the regions.

forms of horizontal cooperation between public and

private sectors, notably using the digital revolution

On a different note, many interviewees stress the

as a support. As for the committee chaired by Ann

advantages of low electricity prices. Apart from

Lauvergeon, which is entirely devoted to innovation,

demography they often quote energy, whose relatively

they hope to encourage a culture of risk and

low cost they note in comparison with other European

experimentation, including at schools and universities.

countries starting with Germany as a sound

The committee members support a strategic State and

competitive advantage. This does not mean they are

also pinpoint seven areas with future promise, which

against the energy revolution, but they want a mix

are energy storage, the recycling of raw materials,

that will enable them to retain low energy prices.

the valuation of marine wealth, vegetal proteins,

Further advantages mentioned is the existence of

individualised medicine, the silver economy and the

international groups, world leaders in their area of

valuation of massive data. These priorities also overlap

activity like aeronautics, agro-food, energy or the

in the main with the three sectors identified by the

luxury market; sound infrastructures, notably in terms

Gallois committee for strategic investments, i.e. digital

of the healthcare system, the university landscape and

technologies, healthcare, life economy as well as

the urban model, as well as a strong position in areas

energy revolution.

of future promise, like transport, environment and ITs.

Discourse over the countrys assets does not prevent a

EUROPE AND THE WORLD

critical view of the development of the French industrial

sector. The Louis Gallois committee believes that all

This

lights (share of industry in total value added, industrial

situation is closely related to the way one sees the

interpretation

employment levels, export market shares) are on red:

countrys European, and more widely, its international

crisis point has been reached, to quote the title of the

environment. Although the identification of the EU

first part of the report. Several economic players have

as the framework of action and attachment to the

FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N341 / 27TH JANUARY 2015

of

Frances

socio-economic

Thinking towards the future. French and German businesspeople and their expectations for 2025

European project go without saying, we cannot speak

immersed in internal battles and an every-man-for-

of any overwhelming enthusiasm for European policy

himself approach from a financial point of view and

as it is undertaken in Brussels. On the contrary, it is

also in terms of industrial and energy policy rather than

often judged severely, particularly when it comes to

choosing greater integration, based on mechanisms of

industrial policy and competition. The main criticism

solidarity. Hence the call to consolidate the euro zone.

made is that European businesses are not supported

This demand for European power presupposes on the

adequately

other hand that the European Union will position itself

in

world

in

which

competition

is

increasingly exacerbated.

vis--vis the rest of the world as a credible political

player, that it speaks with one voice and that its voice

A cold view of the European project

is heard. This will also enable France as intimated

by several interviewees to win back influence in the

In the main, the economic players we met believe

international arena. In view of this, several business

that Europe is an intangible reality and as a result it

representatives stress that although economic power

is a natural framework of action, which is also due

is decisive, it will not be enough. They also call for

to remain so. European integration is often seen as

the emergence of a Europe that has credible military

a project of civilisation with a positive connotation

capabilities.

with which one associates principles (like the value of

human life) as well as a specific way of seeing social

A smaller number of interviewees only see the European

relations, notably on the labour market. But at the

Union as an administration amongst others. The former,

same time, Europe is also associated with a view of

who often work in new technologies and believe they

the outside world that is both too self-centred and

use a universal means of communication, think that

too timid. Several interviewees deplore the trend

French businesses field of play is much wider than the

towards collective self-satisfaction by both citizens and

European framework, extending to the Western world

leaders. Not only is this reflected in low awareness

and beyond. In this case, the European Union is, at

of international threats whether this involves

best, seen as a source of funding for research projects,

terrorism, cyber-security or global change but also

at worst, as an impediment to entrepreneurship. In

in an anxiety-provoking perception of risks, notably

both instances and whatever the attachment to the

technological, which prevents Europeans from being

integration project, there is a relative consensus to say

audacious in terms of experimentation and innovation.

that it is now difficult to foster growth in Europe and

Moreover, attachment to the project of integration does

that increasingly, European businesses will have to go

not impede sometimes extremely severe criticism of

and seek growth beyond the continent in the future.

European executives. Almost systematically, Brussels

This is why it is vital to adopt a coherent, assertive

is accused of being bureaucratic and inflexible in a

European position vis--vis global competition.

globalised context.
For European economic patriotism
In

rapidly

changing,

potentially

threatening

environment, interviewees often want the EU to

From these interviews and the interpretation of the

become an economic, cultural and especially political

three reports, a consensus for a pro-active European

power in the future a wish mixed with the fear that it

industrial policy emerges. Such an economic patriotism

will not be equal to this ambition. Interviewees believe

is seen as a vital condition to ensure the positioning

that this means that the EU must firstly avoid internal

of European businesses in the future. This analysis

collapse, potentially caused in the months or years to

comprises two elements: firstly, the Commission is

come by the dynamics of financial fragmentation. More

criticised for organising the competition policy in a

than government debt and a lack of competitiveness,

way that is not adapted to increasingly aggressive

the biggest concern in the present crisis is the prospect

international competition, which will only increase over

of a Union subject to national egotism, as it becomes

the next few years. Beyond this, expectations are high

27TH JANUARY 2015 / EUROPEAN ISSUES N341 / FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN

13

Thinking towards the future. French and German businesspeople and their expectations for 2025

14

as far as support is concerned both by Member States

call for a rapprochement in the national tax models,

and by the Commission in terms of the creation of

and even the introduction of a fiscal corridor. On the

European giants that can be leaders on tomorrows

other hand, they fear a European brain-drain that has

world market. These two elements, which are proof

already been seen on a national level. The danger, in

of the importance given to the European lever to

their eyes, lies in foreign companies, notably American

strengthen French businesses competitiveness, are

and Chinese, taking control of future technologies of

mentioned by the Louis Gallois committee, which

which the Europeans are on the leading edge today

devotes a whole chapter of its report to European

for example in the connected objects sector. Some

industrial policy.

advocate the creation of European Silicon Valleys,

which

would

notably

imply

competitive

financial

On the first point, the report severely criticises the

support to start-ups a branch in which the French

European Commissions work. Not only is it accused

economy is in a position of strength. Regarding

of distorting international competition by privileging

industrial policy, the report on competitiveness advises

the consumer over the manufacturer, it is also accused

on a European energy or raw materials policy, whose

of opting for an excessively legalistic approach, which

absence is, in its opinion, a serious flaw. Beyond this,

leaves insufficient room for other factors, like the

it hopes for the introduction of some major European

economic dimension, the size of the relevant market,

research programmes that may lead to ambitious

the dynamics of sectors mid-term, the effects of scale

industrial projects like Galileo or Ariane. These should

or aid regimes that competitors benefit from. This is a

target previously identified future sectors, notably in

recurrent reproach in the interviews, which highlights

connection with the energy revolution, and that might

the difficulty, even impossibility of bringing businesses

be financed by project bonds and by the European

closer together in Europe, which is yet necessary.

Investment Bank. Again, innovation is seen as key

On this point, some players go as far as to say that

to future competitiveness. France, which enjoys a

they do not fear the competition of other continents.

tradition and expertise in terms of major industrial

At present, however, competition is unfair because of

projects, is called to take the initiative and convince its

the rules that the Europeans impose on themselves.

partners of the merits of this kind of policy.

In answer to this concern, the experts who worked

with Louis Gallois advocate that every decision taken

Facing global competition

by the European Commission regarding competition be

preceded by the opinion of independent economic and

These thoughts reveal an awareness of a dramatically

industrial experts.

changing world that demands the ability to adapt

rapidly on the part of the Europeans. Several interviews

On a European level we work alone and sometimes

as well as the reports by the innovation committee of

even against Brussels

France Stratgie, highlight the imminence of major

geopolitical change. The image that regularly emerges

We compete against ourselves. We have to understand

is one of a multi-polar world in which Europe will

that we are together. We should no longer compare

remain a major centre of power, yet amongst others

France and Germany, but European countries with the

that lie in Asia and in the USA.

rest of the world.

Unsurprisingly China and more widely the emerging
As for the idea of developing a pro-active industrial

economies is often seen as tomorrows major

policy, two types of criticism/demand emerge from the

competitor in a world where economic power will be

interviews. On the one hand, interviewees note that

increasingly important. But not everyone is worried

different tax regimes in the EU damage the emergence

about this. Some relativise its competitive power, if

of any major industrial projects, for instance in the

Europe can position itself in high know-how sectors;

area of renewable energies. In response to this, they

others regard Chinas economic development positively

FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N341 / 27TH JANUARY 2015

Thinking towards the future. French and German businesspeople and their expectations for 2025

since it is synonymous to exports. The other major

interviews, it is rather difficult to define who of the

competitor is the USA, which traditionally positions

French and Germans interviewed , are the most

itself

future

worried about the future. At first, pessimism is clearly

promise, like the digital and biotechnological areas

more apparent in France. Having said this, the picture

and in which financing conditions for new created

is more subtle than it first appears. Undeniably, French

businesses are deemed better. Although most of those

economic leaders are (extremely) concerned about

interviewed admit they do not know much about

their countrys present situation and likewise that of the

TTIP, the transatlantic trade agreement currently

European Union. They believe that tension in French

being negotiated, many mistrust the American trend

society is such that it could very quickly challenge

towards protectionism and its alleged propensity to

the Republican consensus and therefore threaten the

bend multi-lateral rules for its own benefit. As far as

French way of living together. Likewise, they fear that

the French are concerned, a marked interest in Africa

the crisis, as it exacerbates national egotism, will

is also notable. In spite of some reticence linked to

lead to the collapse of the European Union. However,

the continents political instability and its technological

in the mid to long-term, they reject defeatism. The

immaturity, several economic players believe that it

seem, on the contrary, convinced that if government

has great potential in terms of growth and consumption

action is well managed, both at national and European

of European products. On several occasions, Africa is

level the trend might be reversed, thereby enabling

quoted as a privileged territory to conquer.

businesses to recover a competitive position and

in

strategic

economic

sectors

with

succeed in a globalised world.

Europeans will be the losers over energy and labour
costs. Lets not be the losers in terms of grey matter,

The Germans reflect an opposite image. They are

lets not be fatalistic.

serene given the sound economic situation of their

country. Although they are aware of international risks,

The speeding-up of trade and the spread of knowledge,

whether these are geopolitical or environmental, they

particularly to the emerging countries, as well as the

do not feel that they are directly concerned. However,

ever-growing digital market are forcing Europeans to

they too are worried about the future, not just fearing

position themselves in the knowledge niche. Most of

for the acquis of European integration but also for

the French players we met agree on this point. The

the position of their country in the globalised world.

only way they differ and significantly so is in terms

Many are indeed convinced that if Germany continues

of the degree of urgency and difficulty they associate

to take things for granted and that it does not gauge

with this challenge. Some believe that it will be enough

the challenges it already faces, its situation is bound

for Europe to remain one step ahead in its control of

to deteriorate rapidly. With this prospect, demographic

knowledge and technologies. Others however believe

and a new energy policy are viewed as obstacles to

Europes competitors are catching up so quickly,

the German models sustainability, at least if nothing is

notably thanks to considerable financial effort, that

done to support it.

the battle will be a tough one and that it is urgent

to take the necessary steps. On this point, several

When looking to the future, both the French and the

business representatives believe that France, including

Germans agree to say that it is urgent to act. This

the government, has to make a real effort to open up

does not prevent them from developing different

and adapt to globalisation. This notably concerns the

solutions, for example regarding industrial policy or

school system, which is deemed to be out of sync with

the EUs military capabilities. On these issues, as on

the challenges of the modern world.

others, the answers provided reflect national traditions

well anchored in the collective subconscious of each

CONCLUSION

country. Given the newness of European integration, it

seems logical that these differences persist. But at the

When it comes to drawing lessons from these

same time, economic players agree on other issues,

27TH JANUARY 2015 / EUROPEAN ISSUES N341 / FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN

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Thinking towards the future. French and German businesspeople and their expectations for 2025

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whether this means criticising Brussels competition

no more than it does in the economic field, foreign

policy or asking for greater support for research and

policy or the security area. However, the perception of

technological innovations in order to resist Chinese

risks and opportunities linked to globalisation brings

and American competition. On these issues, business

the points of view of the economic players in both

leaders often part company with the political leaders

countries closer together. Whether this still limited

of their country or the EU, whom they accuse of not

convergence will continue or lead to concerted political

planning adequately enough for the future.

action remains to be seen. The ball is in the political

No common strategic culture emerges from this picture

court.

You can read all of our publications on our site :

www.robert-schuman.eu
Publishing Director : Pascale JOANNIN

THE FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN, created in 1991 and acknowledged by State decree in 1992, is the main
French research centre on Europe. It develops research on the European Union and its policies and promotes
the content of these in France , Europe and abroad. It encourages, enriches and stimulates European debate
thanks to its research, publications and the organisation of conferences. The Foundation is presided over by
Mr.Jean-Dominique Giuliani.

FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N341 / 27TH JANUARY 2015