Hurricane Patricia

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This article is about the Pacific hurricane of 2015. For other storms of the same
name, see Hurricane Patricia (disambiguation).
Hurricane Patricia
Category 5 major hurricane (SSHWS/NWS)
Patricia 2015-10-23 1730Z Worldview.jpg
Hurricane Patricia at its record peak intensity on October 23, while approaching
Western Mexico
Formed

October 20, 2015

Dissipated

October 24, 2015

Highest winds

1-minute sustained: 200 mph (325 km/h)

Lowest pressure

879 mbar (hPa); 25.96 inHg

(Record low in Western Hemisphere)

Fatalities

8 direct, 5 indirect

Damage

> $189 million (2015 USD)

Areas affected

Central America, Mexico, Texas

Part of the 2015 Pacific hurricane season

Hurricane Patricia (Spanish pronunciation: [patisia]) was the most intense
tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere in terms of barometric
pressure, and the strongest globally in terms of reliably measured maximum
sustained winds. Originating from a sprawling disturbance near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec in mid-October 2015, Patricia was first classified a tropical
depression on October 20. Initial development was slow, with only modest
strengthening within the first day of its classification. The system later became a
tropical storm and was named Patricia, the twenty-fourth named storm of the
annual hurricane season. Exceptional environmental conditions fueled explosive
intensification on October 22. A well-defined eye developed within an intense
central dense overcast and Patricia grew from a tropical storm to a Category 5
hurricane in just 24 hoursa near-record pace. Early on October 23, Hurricane
Hunters revealed the storm to have acquired record maximum sustained winds
of 200 mph (325 km/h); a subsequent recon mission found a record low pressure
of 879 mbar(hPa; 25.96 inHg).

Late on October 23, Patricia made landfall in a significantly weakened state,

though still at Category 5 intensity, near Cuixmala, Jalisco. It became only the
second Pacific hurricane on record to make landfall at this intensity, after the
1959 Mexico hurricane. Interaction with the mountainous terrain of Mexico
induced dramatic weakening, faster than the storm intensified. Within 24 hours

of moving ashore, Patricia degraded into a tropical depression and dissipated

soon thereafter late on October 24.

The precursor to Patricia produced widespread flooding rains in Central America.

Hundreds of thousands of people were directly affected by the storm, mostly in
Guatemala. At least six fatalities were attributed to the event: four in El Salvador,
one in Guatemala, and one in Nicaragua. Striking Mexico as a Category 5,
Patricia caused tremendous damage; however, the affected areas were
predominantly rural, mitigating a potential large-scale disaster. Preliminary
assessments indicate hundreds of homes to be destroyed and seven fatalities
are linked to the hurricane, directly or indirectly. Total damage is estimated to be
in excess of 3.1 billion pesos (US$189 million), with agriculture comprising the
majority of losses.

Contents [hide]
1 Meteorological history
1.1 Records
2 Preparations
3 Impact
3.1 Central America
3.2 Mexico
3.3 Texas
4 See also
5 References
6 External links
Meteorological history[edit]

Map plotting the track and intensity of the storm according to the SaffirSimpson
hurricane wind scale
On October 14, 2015, the U.S. National Hurricane Center began monitoring the
possibility of tropical cyclogenesis over the far eastern Pacific, near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, as an area of low pressure was expected to form.[1] This feature
later consolidated on October 17, with a large area of convectionshowers and
thunderstormsspanning several hundred miles from Central America westward
over open waters.[2] Under favorable environmental conditions, the low steadily
organized and associated convection became more concentrated around its
center.[3] The system soon interacted with a Tehuantepec gap wind event on
October 18,[4] temporarily delaying development of the disturbance into a
tropical depression.[5][6] Drifting west-southwest in response to a ridge over the
Gulf of Mexico, the disturbance consolidated throughout October 20. At 15:00

UTC, the system acquired sufficient convective organization to be classified

Tropical Depression Twenty-E.[7] Upon its designation, the depression was
situated roughly 445 mi (715 km) east-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.[8]

Most intense Pacific hurricanes[9]

Hurricane

Year

Pressure

hPa

inHg

Patricia

Linda 1997 902

26.64

Rick

2009 906

26.76

Kenna 2002 913

26.96

Ava

1973 915

27.02

Ioke

2006

Marie 2014 918

27.11

2015 879

25.96

Odile
9

Guillermo

1997 919

10

Gilma 1994 920

27.14

27.17

Listing is only for tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean

north of the equator and east of the International Dateline
Exceptionally favorable atmospheric conditions, consisting of light wind shear,
sea surface temperatures of 86 F (30 C) or higher, and high moisture levels
yielded an environment highly conducive to rapid intensification.[7] A small
inner-core soon developed and the depression intensified into a tropical storm by
03:00 UTC on October 21, at which time it was assigned the name Patricia.[10]
[11] For unknown reasons, the system unraveled substantially later that day with
banding features dissipating and the low-level circulation becoming poorly
defined.[12][13] This phase was short-lived as convection blossomed over the
storm late on October 21 and a central dense overcast formed over the center.
An eye-feature was noted early on October 22.[14] The system reached
hurricane strength by 09:00 UTC, featuring prominent outflow and well-defined
banding features; rapid intensification ensued soon thereafter.[15] Data from
Hurricane Hunters investigating the cyclone indicated Patricia to have reached
Category 4 status on the SaffirSimpson hurricane wind scale by 18:00 UTC.[16]

By the early hours of October 23, a solid ring of 130 F (90 C) cloud tops
surrounded the hurricane's 12 mi (19 km) wide eye and signaled its
intensification into a Category 5. A clear northward turn took place followed by
acceleration northeast.[17][18] Based on satellite analyses, Patricia was
estimated to have acquired maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260 km/h)
a Category 5 on the SaffirSimpson hurricane wind scaleand an estimated

barometric pressure of 924 mbar (hPa; 27.29 inHg). In a 24-hour span, Patricia's
winds increased by 100 mph (155 km/h). The rate of intensification was greater
than that of any other Pacific hurricane on record in the satellite-era (1960s
present)only Hurricane Linda in 1997 strengthened at a similar rate.[18]
Around 05:30 UTC, a reconnaissance aircraft measured flight-level winds of 206
mph (332 km/h), yielding an estimated surface value of 185 mph (295 km/h),
and a surface pressure of 892 mbar (hPa; 26.34 inHg).[19] Patricia continued to
deepen as the aircraft investigated the storm. The final observations from the
Hurricane Hunters before they left the hurricane indicated the system to have
attained winds of 200 mph (325 km/h) and a barometric pressure of 880 mbar
(hPa; 25.99 inHg).[20][21] Flight-level winds measured by the aircraft reached
221 mph (356 km/h).[22]

Satellite animation of Patricia making landfall on October 23

Little change in strength took place through the remainder of October 23, with
another reconnaissance mission around 18:00 UTC recording a slightly lower
central pressure of 879 mbar (hPa; 25.96 inHg); this constitutes the maximum
intensity of the hurricane.[23] The aircraft was battered by severe turbulence
(via updrafts and downdrafts) and the crew experienced maximum g-forces of
+3.0 and -1.5.[24] An outer eyewall was noted in radar imagery, indicating a
likely eyewall replacement cycle. Following the investigation by recon, Patricia's
eye became cloud-filled and weakening ensued.[23] At 23:15 UTC on October 23,
the cyclone made landfall at Cuixmala, in the municipality of La Huerta, Jalisco
about 55 mi (85 km) west-northwest of Manzanillowith winds of 165 mph (270
km/h) and an estimated pressure of 920 mbar (hPa; 27.17 inHg).[25][26] This
made Patricia the first hurricane to strike Mexico's Pacific coast as a Category 5
since an unnamed storm in 1959;[9] however, the status of the 1959 hurricane is
disputed and it may have been weaker than originally assessed.[27]

Rapid weakening ensued throughout October 24 as the hurricane traversed the

Sierra Madre mountains; its eye disappeared from satellite imagery within hours
of moving ashore.[28] Patricia accelerated inland in between of a trough over
Northwestern Mexico and the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Convection
dramatically decreased in organization and the low- and mid- to upper-level
circulation centers of the cyclone soon decoupled.[29][30] The system degraded
into a tropical depression by 15:00 UTC as little organized convection remained.
[30] Patricia degenerated into a remnant low hours later.[31] Unimpeded by the
mountains of Mexico, the mid- to upper-level circulation of Patricia, accompanied
by considerable moisture, continued northeast and interacted with a cold front
over the western Gulf of Mexico. The new system produced flooding rains across
large areas of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas.[32][33][34]

Records[edit]

The flight crew of NOAA43 commemorate the record observation of 879 mbar
(hPa; 25.96 inHg) after their final mission into Hurricane Patricia on October 23.
With maximum sustained winds of 200 mph (325 km/h) and a minimum pressure
of 879 mbar (hPa; 25.96 inHg), Hurricane Patricia is the most intense tropical
cyclone ever observed in the Western Hemisphere.[22][35] It exceeded the
previous sustained wind record of 190 mph (305 km/h) set by Hurricane Allen in
1980 and eclipsed the pressure record of 882 mbar (hPa; 26.05 inHg) set by
Hurricane Wilma in 2005, both in the Atlantic basin.[36] In the Eastern Pacific
basin, north of the equator and east of the International Dateline, the previous
basin record-holder was Hurricane Linda in 1997 with winds of 185 mph (295
km/h) and a pressure of 902 mbar (hPa; 26.64 inHg).[9]

On a global scale, Patricia's one-minute maximum sustained winds ranked as the

highest ever reliably observed or estimated globally in a tropical cyclone,
surpassing Typhoon Haiyan of 2013; however, the intensity of Haiyan was only
estimated via satellite imagery (T8.0, the highest rating on the Dvorak scale), so
the record is uncertain.[22] According to the World Meteorological Organization,
Typhoon Nancy of 1961 produced the highest sustained winds on record at 215
mph (345 km/h); however, it is widely accepted that Western Pacific
reconnaissance during the 1940s to 1960s overestimated cyclone intensity and
Nancy's record is considered questionable.[35][37] The most powerful wind gust
produced by a tropical cyclone, as well as the highest non-tornadic winds ever
recorded, is still retained by Cyclone Olivia in 1996: 253 mph (407 km/h) was
observed on Barrow Island, Western Australia.[38]

The magnitude of Patricia's rapid intensification is among the fastest ever

observed. In a 24-hour span, October 2223, its central pressure fell by 100 mbar
(hPa; 2.95 inHg).[35] This fell just short of the world-record intensification set by
Typhoon Forrest in 1983, which featured an identical pressure drop in under 24
hours.[39] With winds of 165 mph (270 km/h), Patricia is the strongest landfalling
Pacific hurricane on record.[9][25] The previous record was 160 mph (260 km/h)
set by the 1959 Mexico hurricane. A tentative reanalysis determined the 1959
storm to have been a Category 4 upon moving ashore, thereby making Patricia
the only reliable Category 5 landfall on record in the basin.[9][27]

Preparations[edit]
Prior to the arrival of Hurricane Patricia, the Government of Mexico issued
multiple watches and warnings for coastal communities. A hurricane watch was
first raised at 09:00 UTC on October 21, encompassing areas of Michoacn,
Colima, and Jalisco. A tropical storm watch also covered portions of Guerrero.[40]
As Patricia intensified, the government issued a hurricane warning for areas
between Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco, and Punta San Telmo, Michoacn; a tropical
storm warning supplemented this for areas farther north and east.[41][42] The
hurricane warning was extended northward to include areas south of San Blas,
Nayarit, on October 23.[43] Once the storm moved inland and the threat of

damaging winds diminished, these warnings were gradually allowed to expire on

October 24.[44][45][46]

Following Patricia's upgrade to Category 5 status, the National Hurricane Center

called the storm "potentially catastrophic",[47] a source of criticism and praise
from various media. Citing the relatively limited damage and loss of life, some
outlets claimed the agency was over-hyping or over-blowing storm. Most outlets
praised them for effectively communicating the dire threat and potentially saving
lives from an exceptionally powerful hurricane.[48][49]

Across Michoacn, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit, 1,782 shelters were opened on
October 22 with a collective capacity of 258,000 people.[50] Officials in
Manzanillo began distributing sandbags during the afternoon of October 22.[51]
Schools across Guerrero and Jalisco suspended activities for October 22 and 23,
respectively.[52][53] Puerto Vallarta also prepared for the high winds and storm
surge.[54] Civil protection officials planned to evacuate roughly 50,000 people
from Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit.[55] To expedite the process, 2 aircraft and 600
buses were used to shuttle evacuees.[56] Ultimately, 8,500 people evacuated
prior to the storm's arrival,[57] One person died during an evacuation in Jalisco.
[58] including 2,600 in Cabo Corrientes.[56] Roughly 25,000 personnel from the
Mexican Army, Navy, and Federal Police were deployed preemptively.[59] The
Mexican Red Cross prepositioned food for 3,500 families.[60] Mexican authorities
received praise for effectively carrying out emergency preparations.[61]

Impact[edit]

The sprawling precursor to Hurricane Patricia over Central America on October

17
Central America[edit]
Heavy rain associated with the precursor to Patricia caused widespread flooding
and mudslides across Central America.[62] One person was killed in the Alta
Verapaz Department and approximately 2,100 people required evacuation across
Guatemala.[62][63] A total of 442 homes and 28,200 ha (70,000 acres) of crops
were damaged while roughly 223,000 people were affected by flooding.[64][65]
Government officials deployed emergency teams and 40 million quetzal (US$5.4
million) was available for relief operations.[64] In nearby El Salvador between
160 and 185 mm (6.3 and 7.3 in) of rain fell, causing similar floods.[66] Dozens
of homes were affected and four people were killed.[66][67] The Goascorn River
overflowed its banks twice in two days, inundating surrounding communities.[66]
Owing to widespread flooding, authorities suspended school activities across the
country on October 19.[67] In Nicaragua, a landslide buried four miners in
Bonanza; one died while the others were rescued.[68] The Ula River in
Honduras over-topped its banks for the first time in 17 years on October 18,
prompting the evacuation of more than 200 people.[69][70] Furthermore,
flooding damaged 10 homes in Jac, Costa Rica.[71]

Mexico[edit]
While the hurricane was still offshore, widespread flooding affected large areas of
Chiapas and Guerrero, prompting dozens of evacuations.[72] The hurricane
produced large swells along the shores of Guerrero, causing damage to coastal
structures.[73]

Hurricane Patricia made landfall in Jalisco as a Category 5 hurricane during the

evening of October 23. The 15 mi (24 km) wide core of Patricia largely avoided
populated centers, passing through areas with a population density less than 30
people per square mile. This, alongside effective evacuations, is credited for the
relatively low death toll, despite the hurricane's intensity. Several small
communities along the path sustained tremendous damage, however.[74] Had
the hurricane moved farther east or west, the densely populated areas
surrounding Manzanillo or Puerto Vallarta would have suffered a direct hit.[61] A
NOAA/NWS automated weather station at the Chamela-Cuixmala Biosphere
Reserve, at an elevation of 295 ft (90 m), recorded sustained winds of 185 mph
(298 km/h) and a maximum gust of 211 mph (340 km/h). The data is currently
unverified and considered unofficial pending further investigation.[28]
Throughout the affected region, the storm's powerful winds rendered 261,989
people without electricity.[59][57] Twenty-one of the nation's thirty-one states,
and the Federal District, were affected by the hurricane's rain.[75] Accumulations
in Jalisco peaked at 383.2 mm (15.09 in) on Nevado de Colima.[76]

Preliminary surveys across Colima indicated localized but severe damage. A total
of 200 schools, 107 health facilities, 34 sport facilities, and 11,645 ha (28,780
acres) of agriculture was affected by the storm.[77] Severe damage was incurred
by the banana crops, with losses from the fruit alone estimated at 500 million
pesos (US$30.2 million). In Coahuayana alone, approximately 400 homes were
destroyed.[57] The small town of Chamela was completely leveled.[78] In
addition to agricultural losses, stated damages are estimated to be in excess of
112 million pesos (US$6.8 million), with the vast majority stemming from
agriculture.[57][77] In nearby Jalisco, approximately 10,000 people were directly
affected by the storm with 3,500 homes damaged or destroyed.[79] Nearly 8,280
ha (20,500 acres) of crops were damaged across the state.[80] A total of six
deaths in incidents related to Patricia were reported in the state. Two of these
deaths occurred when a tree toppled over in the storm's powerful winds.[79] A
woman was also hospitalized after sustaining injuries in the same incident.
Another four people were killed in an automobile accident in southern Jalisco.
Two of the victims died in the wreckage and the other two died after being
brought to the hospital.[81][82]

Although Patricia made landfall farther west, damage across Michoacn was
severe. Numerous communities were temporarily isolated as roads were either
rendered impassible or washed away altogether by floods. The storm severely
damaged 150 homes in the Arteaga Municipality. A portion of Highway 200 was

shut down in Aquila.[83] Agriculture sustained extensive damage with 10,000 ha

(25,000 acres) of crops destroyed; losses in the sector amounted to 2.5 billion
pesos (US$151.2 million). In Coahuayana alone, 5,600 ha (14,000 acres) of
bananas were ruined, the greatest loss of crops in the municipality's history.[84]
Damage to health facilities in the state reached 13.5 million pesos (US$815,000).
[85]

A cargo shipthe 735 ft (224 m) bulk carrier Los Llanitos[86]was shifted offcourse by the hurricane and grounded near Barra de Navidad, Jalisco. Her 27
crew were unharmed but required rescue by a military helicopter.[78]

In the aftermath of the hurricane, 5,791 marines from the nation's Naval Infantry
Force were deployed to assist with recovery and rescue efforts.[87] Rescuers
reached some of the hardest-hit areas within a day of Patricia's landfall.[61] The
Secretariat of Social Development's budget allowed for 250 million pesos
(US$15.1 million) in relief funds for Jalisco.[79] Power was restored to 88 percent
of those affected within two days of the storm.[59] Red Cross volunteers began
needs assessments on October 24 and distribution of humanitarian started the
following day.[60]

Texas[edit]
Patricia's direct effects in Texas were limited to southern areas of the state.
Moisture associated with the hurricane streamed ahead of its circulation and
interacted with a frontal boundary over the region.[32] Antecedent rains
saturated the region and produced severe flooding, with cars and trains washed
away.[88] Fears arose that the collective effects of these storms would produce
deadly floods, similar to those in May earlier in the year; however, no deaths
resulted.[89] Houston received 9.38 in (238 mm) of rain during a 24-hour span
from October 2425 and flooding near the TexasMexico border stranded cars.
[90][91] Some damage was reported in Weslaco.[92]