Cambridge University Press

The Population of Turkey after the War of Independence

Author(s): Frederic C. Shorter
Source: International Journal of Middle East Studies, Vol. 17, No. 4 (Nov., 1985), pp. 417-441
Published by: Cambridge University Press
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/163412
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Int. J. Midcle East Stud. 17 (1985), 417-441 Printed in the United States of Anmerica

Frederic C. Shorter

THE POPULATION OF TURKEY AFTER

THE WAR OF INDEPENDENCE
The people of Turkey at the end of the War of Independence could hardly have
imagined the long era of peace and national development that was to follow.
They had just been through more than a decade of struggle to survive against the
odds of warfare abroad and at home, epidemics, and serious interferences with
the normal material means of livelihood. Loss of life and permanent disability
were legacies for many families of the 1911-1922 period. Practically every community was affected in some life-threatening way by the ambitions of outside
powers and their local allies or by the last Ottoman campaigns (the Balkans,
North Africa, Gallipoli, the Russian front, Mesopotamia, Palestine, and the
Hejaz). Only the independence struggle itself finally resolved the issues of territoriality, governance, and the right to reside in peace. The new Republic was
founded in 1923.
CENSIUSES BEFORE AND AFTER INDEPENDENCE

The possibility of taking stock of the Republican Turkish population depended

upon having a census. The Ottoman State maintained a continuous registration
system. Its main uses were male conscription, taxation, and regulation or migration or settlement. Periodically, there was a special campaign to bring the
registers up to date by census-like canvasses. The registers were then summarized
from time to time in documents known as Ottoman censuses (Karpat 1978; Shaw
1978; Akarli 1970).
The Ottoman registers reflected their purposes by providing better counts of
males than females. The 1895-96 Ottoman census, unlike most of the others,
included a classification by broad age groups as well as by sex. Demographic
analysis of this census demonstrates that even males were seriously undercounted
below age 20, while the completeness of the count of females was hopeless
(McCarthy 1978, pp. 22-28). Although useful information was extracted from
the registers by the Ottoman summarization procedure, few cross-tabulations,
the essence of a good census, were made.
When the Republic was founded, it kept the Ottoman registration system for
limited purposes. Registration is the basis for the present-day population booklets
(Niifus Ctizdani) that almost every Turk possesses. Birth, marriage, divorce,
children, and death are recorded for both sexes in the registers. Summarization
? 1985 Cambridge University Press 0020-7438/85/000417-25

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418

Frederic C. Shorter

from these records has never been successful in producing complete national
counts, which does not necessarily mean that the local records are inaccurate
since summarization may be the faulty step. It does confirm, however, the
wisdom of the Republic's early decision to institute a genuine census system.
In 1927 the first modern census was held under the direction of a Belgian
statistician employed to make sure that the best-known methods were applied.
The census was an independent defacto enumeration conducted house to house
without linkage to the registration system. The 1927 census reports were among
the first important social documents to appear after the founding of the Republic
(Turkey Central Statistical Office (CSO) 1929).
Demographers have made less use of the 1927 census than the later series of
five-yearly censuses that began in 1935. There were doubts about its quality,
and checking was difficult. For example, details about the age structures were
obscured in the final reports by grouping into unconventional age ranges. Age
information is very useful for demographic assessment. The census questionnaire
and the format of the reports were improved in 1935 and retained with few
changes thereafter. Consequently, the census reports of 1935 and later provide
exceptionally valuable information concerning the demographic and social history
of Turkey.
Naturally enough, no census was taken after the War of Independence, but
suppose one had been. It would have provided a benchmark with which to
evaluate the condition of the population at the beginning of the Republican
period. In order to interpret social trends and policies of the early Republican
period, it would be most helpful to know what demographic realities constrained
alternatives and affected perceptions. To take a 1923 census now would be
impossible, but to construct an approximate 1923 "census" from information in
the censuses that were taken later is actually in the realm of possibility. The
population by age and sex and its approximate size in 1923 can be at the very
least estimated. Details of marital status, educational attainment, occupation,
and so on are not so easily reconstructed.
The possibility of performing this analytic feat lies in the fact that, except for
those who died in the interim, everyone who would have been enumerated in
1923 was enumerated again in 1927, 1935, and later censuses. The balance of
migration in and out of the population blurs the picture, but this can be considered a minor factor as will be explained when the population exchanges at the
birth of the Republic are discussed. Another way to indicate the possibility of
taking a 1923 "census" is to note that the census of 1935 (a census that passes
tests of reasonable quality) consists entirely of "1923 population" plus persons
who were born after 1923 and were, therefore, under the age of 12 in 1935. The
1935 census describes the 1923 population by age and sex by making only two
adjustments: it deducts 12 years from everyone's age who is 12 or over and "adds
back" population by age and sex of persons who died between 1923 and 1935.
Adding the dead back into the population is not so difficult if some idea of the
level (or general rate) of mortality is known or can be reasonably assumed. The
distribution of the deaths by age and sex follows patterns that are well established

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The Population of Turkey After the War of Independence 419

in general historical studies from which families of model life tables have been
created (Coale and Demeny 1966).
The general technique for adding back the deaths is known by demographers
as "reverse survival." When applied to a whole population, it is termed "reverse
population projection." So as not to clutter this presentation with technical
details, an explanation of reverse population projection is given in the appendix.
A short glossary of demographic terms is also appended.
ESTIMATING A 1923 "CENSUS" BY REVERSE POPULATION PROJECTION

The basis for estimating the 1923 population is as follows.

1. The 1935 census is preferred over the 1927 census as a basis because it is
reported in a standard demographic format (e.g., 5-year age groups) and has
passed the scrutiny of demographers as being a reasonably sound census. There
have been questions about the 1927 census (e.g., undercounting) which are easier
not to tackle directly. The major fault of the 1935 census and all successive
Turkish censuses is that their age distributions are no better than the information
on age supplied by the respondents themselves to the census enumerators.
Patterns of age misreporting have been detected and found to be systematic in
the whole series of censuses from 1935 to the present (Demeny and Shorter 1968;
Das Gupta 1975; Ntozi 1978). Fortunately the repetitive character of these errors
makes it possible to correct the censuses for age misreporting. This was done to
the 1935 census (Shorter and Macura 1982, pp. 122-23), and the corrected result
is used for the reverse projection.
2. The general rate of mortality between 1923 and 1935 was not recorded at
the time, so it is necessary to extrapolate backwards in time from trends observed
later, and to use some judgment. Rather than make a single assumption about
the mortality rate in 1923, one may consider two alternatives in exploring the
census range. First, it is helpful to note the trend of mortality in Turkey after
1935 because that is the information from which a "backwards" extrapolation
would be made (Shorter and Macura 1982, p. 95).
Period

Life Expectancy for

Both Sexes Combined (Years)

1935-40
1940-45
1945-50
1950-55

35.4
31.4
38.1
43.6

1955-60
1960-65
1965-70
1970-75

48.1
52.1
55.6
58.9

The first mortality assumption supposes that a life expectancy of 35 years

prevailed from 1923 to 1935. The assumption of low mortality rates (relative to

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420

Frederic C. Shorter
TABLE

Estimated population of 1923: Low and high alternativesa

Sex and age groups

Low

High

Percentage of total
Low
High

Females
0-14
15-44
45-64
65 and over
Total

2,201
3,169
1,063
367
6,801

2,232
3,209
1,096
415
6,952

32
47
15
5
100

32
46
15
6
100

Males
0-14
15-44
45-64
65 and over
Total

2,233
2,804
808
321
6,166

2,260
2,834
829
343
6,267

36
46
13
5
100

36
45
13
6
100

12,967

13,219

Population

Both sexes
Total
Both sexes
0-14
15-44
45-64
65 and over
Total

Sex ratios of males to females (per 100)

Low
High
101
88
76
87
91

101
88
76
83
90

Note: Some columns do not add to the totals due to rounding.

Figures in thousands.

the second assumption made below) produces by reverse projection the lower of
the two alternative estimates of the 1923 population. (When death rates are
accepted as low, fewer people die between the first (1923) and second (1935)
dates, so calculating backwards from 1935, fewer dead people are added back
into the population to reach the 1923 estimate.)
The second mortality assumption supposes a trend of rising life expectancy
from 1923 to 1935, starting at 30 years and reaching the measured life expectancy
of 35 years after 1935. Specifically, 30 years is assumed prior to 1925, 32 years
from 1925 to 1930, and 34 years from 1930 to 1935. The assumption of high
mortality rates produces the higher of the two estimates for the 1923 population.
In the projections, males and females are assigned the same life expectancy at
birth to reflect the finding in other studies that females generally did not have
better survival chances than males during the earliest years for which measurement is possible. Since the 1940s, better female chances emerged with the declining mortality trend (Demeny and Shorter 1968, p. 15; Shorter and Macura
1982, pp. 63, 89, 92, 95).
3. The remaining details are entirely technical and may be consulted in the
appendix. The exact structure of population in the uppermost age groups-above

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The Population of Turkei After the War of Indepnd dence

TABLE

Census of 1927 compared to reverse projections of population

for the same year"
Projections

Relative undercount
(percentage)

Sex

1927
Census

Low

High

Low

High

Males
Females
Both sexes

6,564
7,084
13,648

6,607
7,160
13,768

6,658
7,233
13,891

0.7
1.1
0.9

1.4
2.1
1.8

92.7

92.3

92.1

Ratio of males to
females (per 100)
a

421

Figures in thousands.

allowed to follow that of a stationary population because

age 68 in 1923-was
solid information to the contrary was unavailable. Some error for above age 68
is therefore present in the 1923 estimates, but it has little practical effect on the
overall population total and various demographic rates obtained for 1923.
When the estimated census of 1923 (see Table 1) is examined, the first point to
note is that it makes little difference whether "high" or "low" mortality rates are
assumed for the reverse projection. The estimates simply are not very sensitive to
error in that assumption. The reason is that 12 years is not a very long period in
the dynamics of population change, so that most of the people alive in 1923 were
found by the 1935 census.
As a further check on the 1923 results, censuses that followed 1935 were also
reverse-projected to 1923. This was done to determine whether reliance on 1935
was a poor choice. The estimates that are made by using later censuses turn out
to be very similar. For example, reverse projection from the 1940 census produces
practically no differences in population structure and a change in the estimate of
population size of only 1%.
REEVALUATION OF THE 1927 CENSUS

Since the 1927 census is placed in time between 1935 and 1923, the reverse
projections also provide a comment on the 1927 census. This is not the main
purpose of this paper but allows some points to be cleared up. The reverseprojected population for 1927 is compared in Table 2 with the actual census.
Before the 1927 census was held, there was considerable confusion about the
likely size of the Turkish population. Yuceulug (1944, p. 38) mentions reports of
the French and British foreign offices that gave the population in 1924 as
approximately 8 or 9 million. After the census in 1927 counted 13.6 million
persons, there were doubts about the accuracy of the census. Not all of the critics
suspected overenumeration, but rather some suspected underenumeration, the
more common defect in censuses. Newspapers in Istanbul published reports of
whole sections of the city being missed. After the 1935 and 1940 censuses were

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422

Frederic C. Shorter
TABLE

Various results of the reverseprojection: high alternative

Crude birth rate (per thousand population)

Total fertility rate (children per couple)
Crude death rate (per thousand population)
Expectation of life at birth (years)h
Rate of natural increase (percent)

1930-35

1927a

1923a

54
7.1
34
34
2.0

53
6.6
36
32
1.7

45
5.6
36
30
0.9

aInterpolations to correspond with October of each year shown.

bThis was an assumption to make the reverse projection.
Note: The low alternative projection differs chiefly by giving somewhat lower estimates of fertility at
the earlier dates, and higher yearly rates of population increase. The total fertility rate in the low
projection is 5.2 in 1923, rising to 7.0 for 1930 to 1935. The death rate is also lower, because the
expectation of life is held constant at 35 years in the low alternative. The crude death rate is 30 per
thousand in 1923, rising to 33 per thousand for 1930 to 1935.

taken, it became more plausible to accept the 1927 census. The eminent economic
historian and demographer Omer Celal Sara estimated that the 1927 census was
an undercount of 370,000 persons, giving a total size very close to 14 million
persons (Sarc 1940, 1942). As a total count relative to later censuses, the 1927
census apparently was not such a poor census after all.
HIGH GROWTH

RATES BEFORE WORLD WAR II: TRUE OR FALSE'?

Two successive censuses are a reasonable basis for estimating the growth rate
of a population, provided the extent of coverage does not change between the
two censuses. A simple comparison of 1927 and 1935 without adjustment gives
an average growth rate during the 8 years of 2.1% per annum. After adjusting
the 1927 census and allowing for a small amount of international migration, Sary
estimated 1.6%.The reverse projection indicates a somewhat higher rate, reaching
2.0% by the end of the period (see Table 3). From today's perspective of theories
about demographic change in developing countries, all of these estimates must
seem high. Turkey had not entered the "demographic transition" of reduced
death rates with high fertility inherited from a long stable past. Mortality rates
did not decline substantially until after World War II, so how could Turkey
possibly have had high population growth rates unless the data themselves were
in error?
In pre-war Turkey, let it be said, this question was not asked. The general
perception of Turks was that population was deficient, and commentators all
welcomed the apparent high growth rate. The model of "demographic transition"
had not yet been announced or become the expected format of demographic
change in developing countries (Notestein 1945).
To explain the high growth rates, the structure of the population's age and sex
must be noted. It was in no sense normal. Many years had to pass after 1923 for
persons to be born, to grow up, and for some kind of balance in the population
to be reattained. In 1923, and for several decades thereafter, the Turkish population was short of males, but children were conceived and born nevertheless. The

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The Population of Turkey After the War of Independence 423

reverse projection in Table 3 shows a rising fertility trend from 1923 to 1935.
Extraordinarily high crude birth rates were reached, and hence high growth rates
in the population were also reached. The crude birth rate (CBR) is equal to
yearly births divided by the total size of the population. The denominator was
deficient in the category that does not bear children (males), and this is why the
CBR became so high. Turkey had high growth rates before World War II
because of the unusual composition of the population by age and sex, not
because of any demographic transition.
SCARS AND IMBALANCES

IN THE 1923 POPULATION

The special problems of Turkey's population trace back to the tumultuous

period ending with the War of Independence. The years 1911 to 1922 saw many
Turks die in military action (during the Italian war, Balkan wars, World War I
and the Independence War itself, and many other persons also suffered to the
point of death from civil disorders and very poor living conditions. There is no
certain way to construct estimates of the Turkish population that would have
been counted in 1923 if none of the excess mortality had occurred. A way to
make a rough approximation comes to mind nevertheless.
Populations acquire a unique age structure due to their history of fertility and
mortality. When fertility and mortality levels (age-specific fertility and mortality
schedules) persist unchanged for a long period of time, the population structure
becomes what demographers term a "stable population." The population pyramid
has a fixed proportionate distribution of persons of each sex in each age group.
Its total size reflects past history; it is not constant but changes over time at a
constant rate. If this pyramid were known for Turkey in 1923, it would provide a
standard against which to compare the actual population.
The age structure of 1923 is depleted at most ages by mortality rates that were
excessive in the immediate past. To give meaning to the term excess mortality,
any deaths in excess of those for a life table expectation of life at birth of 30
years may be considered to be excess deaths. These excess deaths are the reason
that the actual population pyramid in 1923 is depleted in an uneven manner
compared to a stable population pyramid that would be uniquely created by a
life expectancy of 30 years and a stable past fertility level. The "normal" fertility
level can be assumed to be the fertility level of 1923. Averaging the high and low
estimates in Table 3 and its footnote gives a total fertility rate of 5.4 children.
The past fertility level, just as the past mortality level, is assumed arbitrary for
the stable population but provides reasonable standards of "normal" against
which to evaluate the effects of excess mortality.
International migration alters the stable pyramid marginally if it is sex or age
selective. Since the Turkish population exchanges were whole families (see below),
not special groups such as workers, this factor does not need special consideration
when setting up the 1923 standard.
First, the stable population pyramid is calculated in terms of the proportion of
population in each age group (Coale and Demeny 1968). Then, the pyramid is
sized. In this instance it is calculated to agree with the actual size of the 15-19

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424

Frederic C. Shorter
AGE
FEMALE

MALE
75+

-I

70-74
65-69

I ACTUAL

60-64
55-59
50-54

STABLE
-DIFFERENCE
LOI

45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29

20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
1000

800

600
FIGURE

400

200

0
0
THOUSANDS

200

400

600

800

1000

1. Actual and stable population structures for Turkey in 1923

age group. This group is selected because, of all the age groups, it was probably
least affected in numbers by the years of turmoil preceeding 1923. Excess infant
mortality did not affect this cohort because the individuals were already old
enough. Risks of death in children are low once they are past the first three or
four years of life, even in the face of unusual nutritional and disease hazards.
These youngsters in the cohort 15-19 of 1923 were at the same time too young to
be drawn in significant numbers into military action. Some excess mortality of a
civilian nature no doubt affected them, but of all the 5-year cohorts alive in 1923
this one can be accepted as the least scarred. Older cohorts, particularly males,
were exposed to the excess mortality of military action. Younger cohorts of both
sexes had to survive intensified risks of nutritional deficiency and exposure to
infectious diseases in early childhood.
The stable population is compared with the reverse-projectedactual population
of 1923 in Figure 1. A minor inconsistency occurs at the highest ages where
"actual" exceeds "stable." This is due to technical factors in the stable and the
reverse projection, particularly the stationarity assumption that was made earlier
(assumption number 3) for the reverse projection. The main elements of the
comparison are valid measures of the scars found in the 1923 population.
Considerable confidence can be placed in the estimate of the structure of
population losses by age and sex that these two pyramids show. Differences in
judgment about the parameters for the stable population would not be likely to
eliminate the basic pattern of scars on the population that is shown by Figure 1.
Most striking is the deficiency of persons in the working ages, particularly males.
Both the sexual imbalance and the general shortage would take many decades to
disappear as these people aged and younger ones grew up to take their places.
There is also a notable deficiency of very young children. Excess infant and early
childhood mortality was no doubt the main cause, but a temporary period of

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The Population of Turkey After the War of Independence 425

reduced childbearing (below the standard of 5.4 children for the stable population) also could have been responsible. The effect of both causes was to make
demographic recovery after independence even slower. New generations not yet
born would be needed.
POPItLATION

SIZE AND PRE-REPUBLICAN

LOSSES

Comparison of the two pyramids also throws some light on population losses
during the late Ottoman period that were caused by excess mortality or temporarily depressed fertility. It is necessary to define carefully the population
stock whose losses are measured by the difference between the two pyramids.
Strictly speaking, reverse projection from the 1935 census to 1923 reconstructs
the size and composition in 1923 of the Republican population stock that was
living in Turkey in 1935. The 1923 population consists of either the very same
individuals, or forebearers and compatriots who died after 1923 but before 1935.
The estimate for 1923 does not include population stock that left Turkey.
The population exchange with Greece, formalized in the Treaty of Lausanne of
1923, involved not less than one million Greeks (Pentzopoulos 1962, pp. 96-100)
and 400,000 Turks (Turkey CSO 1930, pp. 99-101; Barkan 1949, p. 206). The
exchange was completed quickly, the Greek migration commencing immediately
after the defeat of the Greek armies in 1922 and before the treaty was negotiated.
The reverse-projection estimate of the population in October 1923 does not
include any of the Greek population that left Turkey. It includes all the Turks
who came into the Republic under the exchange, arriving over a period of
several years. It also includes the substantial Greek population that chose to
remain in Istanbul (120,000 in the 1927 census).
The concept of a Republican stock is ideal for a discussion of the impact on
Republican Turkey of the special demographic conditions of 1923, because this
is the population that constituted Republican Turkey. It is not exactly the same
as the population living in the territory of Turkey in October 1923, for the
reasons just explained, but it is very similar.
Subtracting the estimated population pyramid in 1923 from the stable pyramid shows that the population stock was short by about two million persons
(15.36 - 13.22 = 2.14 million). This shortage can be interpreted as an estimate
of excess mortality, possibly including some unrealized fertility, as well. Most
likely the losses were concentrated in the decade before independence. The
estimate is a minimum one because some additional losses could have occurred
and been hidden from view by the absence of any survivors in the young age
group (15-19) that was used here as a benchmark. It should be noted that this
estimate does not depend upon having direct knowledge of the size of the same
population stock at any time during the Ottoman period.
MAKING

UP THE LOSSES

Numerical recovery after a major demographic disaster takes time, but demographic recovery is speeded if fertility substantially exceeds the level of births

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426

Frederic C. Shorter

required for replacement from generation to generation. Because of Turkey's

high mortality rates of the 1920s and 1930s, women needed to bear on average
nearly four children each to achieve population replacement. (At an expectation
of life of 35 years, the required level of the total fertility rate is 3.9.) Since actual
fertility was higher by a comfortable margin and rising, population growth was
rapid. It took only 10 years (until 1933) for the shortage of two million persons
to be made up.
However, the deficit was met by adding children to the population, not adults
in the prime of their working lives. Males in the prime working ages, who were
the shortest supply, were replenished by youth "aging" into their ranks. The
shortage in 1923 of males aged 20-54 was approximately one million. It took
until 1939 for this deficit to be overcome.
Sexual imbalance in the working ages persisted longer. Unbalanced cohorts
had to "age out" of the working ages. About 30 years were needed to accomplish
this completely. However, new cohorts with slightly more males than females, a
sex ratio typical of unscarred populations, were growing into the working ages.
Thus, it was possible for the proportion of males in the working ages overall to
reach 50% as early as 1942. A normal balance with small excesses of males was
reached by the 1950s.
SOME CONSEQUENCES

OF THE SPECIAL DEMOGRAPHIC

CONDITIONS

The influence of Turkey's special demographic conditions on its economic and

social evolution through the 1920s and 1930s is considered next. The approach is
to open the subject by exploring the impact on two types of social and economic
change: agricultural production and women's participation in the economy.
Change of both types is produced by multiple factors, one of which, it will be
argued, was demographic. When there are multiple determinants, a paradigm is
needed to select the principal determinants and place them in reasonable relationship to each other. For agricultural production, the possibility of offering a
paradigm is strengthened by the existence of a valuable body of Turkish research
on the subject. Concerning women's participation in the economy, knowledge is
in a less settled state, but some suggestions leading toward an appropriate
paradigm are offered nevertheless. Because demographic factors are part of the
fabric of many types of social change, additional topics ought to be explored,
but a beginning is made here.
Agricultural Production
The principal products of agriculture in the 1920s and 1930s were wheat and
other cereals; next came animal products (wool, leather, and meat); and on a
smaller scale, but commercially important, a variety of crops, including tobacco,
raisins, and cotton. The pace of agriculture was set by wheat production, which
is suited to Turkish growing conditions and was also urgently needed by Turkey's
postwar economy. The technology of agriculture was traditional rain-fed cultivation using animals for draft power, human labor, and unimproved land.

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The Population of Turkey After the Warof Independence 427

Until after World War 11,there was no notable change in agricultural technology:
neither mechanization nor the use of commercial inputs such as fertilizers,
pesticides, and high-yielding seed. There were many reasons for the delay in
technological transformation until after World War 11, one of which was that
traditional technology was sufficient to support a remarkably successful period
of agricultural expansion from 1923 to World War II.
The success story begins with agriculture in ruins in 1923. Because the technology relied essentially only on labor and land, the revival of production did
not wait upon new capital or the inputs of nonexistent commercial or industrial
sectors. To be sure, even traditional methods require some capital: draft animals,
wagons and carts, a few tools, and the opening of virgin fields by a first plowing
and clearing. However, this form of capital accumulation could proceed comfortably within the institution of agriculture and its pace of expansion. Within a
few years after 1923, wheat production and export crop production (e.g., tobacco
and raisins) were again functioning. This was confirmed by the agricultural
census of 1927 (a busy year with three censuses, the third being the industrial
census).
Weather is a cause of major year-to-year fluctuations in production of wheat
because cereal production is critically dependent upon rainfall. Therefore, statistical assessment of the upward trend in agricultural production can lead to
various estimates, depending upon how this factor is handled. The percentage of
land area planted to wheat is much less affected by weather fluctuations, because
the fields are planted before the next growing season's rainfall is known. The
area planted in wheat increased from 1927 to 1940 at 4.1% per annum (fitted
geometric curve using data assembled by Hirsch and Hirsch 1963, p. 376).
As cereal cultivation expanded extensively by bringing more land under the
plow, there was a risk that production yields per hectare would fall. This does
not seem to have happened, although the data on hectare yields are sparse and
blurred by weather fluctuations, which make confirmation uncertain. Land of
quality similar to that at the margin of current cultivation was plentiful, as
indicated, for example, by the rarity of court cases dealing with agricultural land
disputes. It was available at low prices or was free by allocation from village
common and state lands, including agricultural lands released by the population
exchanges (Keyder 1982, p. 38).
Sustained 4% growth in agricultural output is a major success for any agricultural economy. Growth of crops and agricultural products (e.g., animals)
other than wheat may have increased at even faster rates. Thus, the estimate of
4% growth should be accepted as a minimum assessment of the trend until
World War II.
The paradigm that accounts for the high growth rate has two parts: one
describes an environment of market inducements and taxation that caused
Turkish peasants to choose to devote their productive resources fully to agriculture; the other describes the growth of productive forces available to the
peasants and their commitment to production.
Keyder (1982, pp. 23-69) provides a well-articulated account of the commercial environment for agriculture during the 1920s. Two of his points will

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428

Frederic C. Shorter

characterize the texture. The Ottoman tithe of one-eighth of production, administered by middlemen who took something in addition for themselves, was
abolished in 1924. A relatively free market, with progressive commercialization,
emerged. The national structure of taxes and prices neither transferred a surplus
out of agriculture nor prevented price and cost incentives from reaching the
producers themselves. The other point illustrating the environment is that transport infrastructure was improved (e.g., railway extensions). Transport pricing
was also changed so that farm products could, for the first time, reach coastal
markets at costs competitive with international imports. Major strides in transport continued to be made in the 1930s until World War II delayed further
investment.
When the economic cataclysm of the 1930s struck Turkey, the terms of trade
turned against agriculture (Boratav 1981). Ameliorative efforts by the government
using price supports were of little avail (Silier 1981, pp. 56-81, 91). Peasants did
not react by producing less, because alternatives for them were undeveloped.
They suffered and strove even harder to produce with traditional techniques.
The productive forces of the peasants are the second "leg" of the paradigm.
Unlimited supplies of free, or almost free, agricultural land without diminishing
returns presented an extraordinary opportunity for farmers as long as it lasted
(until the 1950s). The key constraint on agricultural production was labor. In
1923, the labor constraint was severe, but it relaxed over time, which is to say
that this productive force increased steadily. Quantitatively, labor supply was
linked to population change. The general population was growing at 1.7% per
annum from 1923 to 1940, but the male population of labor-force age (20-54)
was growing at 2.0%; female population, at a lower rate. The high rate of growth
for male labor force was due to the arithmetic of the filling-in process as
demographic recovery proceeded. (If annexation of the Hatay population in
1939 were included, the rates would be 1.8%and 2.1%, respectively.)
The withdrawal of manpower for the army was dramatically reduced as
compared with earlier decades. During the wars, practically all rural males aged
20-45 were conscripted for long periods (four years with repeat call-ups was
common). After the wars, conscription was reduced to two years, and even
though the law obligated each man to serve, many exceptions were made.
Farmers who increased their farm size to 50 hectares (a large farm) or 250
animals acquired exemption for two sons and a hired helper. Two-year universal
conscription implied an army on the order of 250 to 300 thousand men judging
by the size of the population cohorts, but the size of the army was reported to be
only 162 thousand men in the 1927 census.
Qualitative gains in the labor force also were a factor. Population in the age
range 20-54 of both sexes became more youthful during this period. The older
scarred cohorts were aging out of the work force whereas full new cohorts were
aging into it at the younger ages. Furthermore, as the population took on the
characteristics of a high fertility pyramid, the youthfulness of the labor force was
sustained. In addition, the sexual balance recovered from a preponderance of
females to become the more usual one of slight male preponderance. Even if
women work as effectively in the field as men, which was quite possible with

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The Population of Turkey Afier the War of Independence

TABLE

4 Percentage of population
in urban places 1927 to 1950

429

living
a

Year

Census
population
(thousand)

Percentage
urban

1927
1935
1940
1945
1950

13,648
16,158
17,821
18,790
20,947

16.4
16.9
18.0
18.3
18.6

"Places with population 10,000 and over.

Source: Censuses.

their long history in Turkish agriculture, they do have competing tasks. Childbearing, rearing, and household labor limit their full availability for farmwork.
At seasons of peak labor demand, this is particularly apparent because men can
drop everything else, whereas women can only stretch themselves to work even
harder in the fields or on the threshing floor.
With male labor input growing quantitatively at generally two percent in the
country, there was even faster growth of male labor in agriculture where the
scars on the population had been the greatest. There was additional growth of
labor input due to the quality factor, and no important shift of population from
rural to urban. A slight urbanward move toward the end of the 1930s is notable
as a likely consequence of hard times in agriculture coupled with growth of
urban-based economic opportunities as an alternative (Table 4). Resources in the
form of labor force did not move decisively out of agriculture until the 1950s,
which lies beyond the present study.
Comparing 4% growth in agriculture with greater than 2% growth in labor
input, the driving force of the demographic factor is apparent. Because of a
particular conjuncture of technological and input conditions described by the
paradigm, the demographic conditions of 1923 are a compelling explanation of
Turkey's rapid agricultural expansion. Some residual remains unexplained. The
test of the paradigm came in the 1940s. When Turkey mobilized its manpower
for war but ended up remaining neutral, the expansion of agriculture stopped.
The trend of expanding wheat cultivation levelled off and declined, recovering
pre-mobilization levels only at the end of the 1940s. A curve fitted to the data for
cultivated wheat land from 1940 to 1950 shows a zero rate of increase.
'
Wonmen Participation in the Econolmy: Agriculture
Women were already working in agriculture prior to the 1920s, but the extent
of their participation and the type of tasks they performed are not clearly known.
The literature of the wars carries praise for the contributions of women to
farmwork. No concern was expressed about sex segration or "veiling" while
getting the job done (Yalman 1930, p. 237). After the wars, agricultural produc-

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430

Frederic C. Shorter
5 Rural population aged 15 and over
w,orking in agriculture, 1935 Census a

TABLE

Agriculture
Other sectors
Not working or unknown
Rural population

Males h

Females h

2,718 (79)
516 (15)
221 (6)
3,455 (100)

2,696 (65)
91 (2)
1,374 (33)
4,161 (100)

"Places with population less than 10,000.

Figures in thousands; parentheses indicate percentage of population.
Source: Turkey CSO 1937, pp. 332-33.
TABLE 6

Work hb rural women: Comparison by

percentage of survey and census results, 1975

Occupation
Non-agricultural work
Agriculture
Homemaking
Total

Village
survey

Rural
census"

14
73
13
100

2
68
30
100

"Places of less than 10,000 population.

Source: Ozbay 1981, p. 166;Turkey State Institute of Statistics
(SIS) 1982, pp. 126-127, 38-39.

tion expanded, for the reasons discussed above, without threat of diminishing
returns. So there was no limit to the work that could be assigned to farm women
other than the competition of non-farm tasks and the family's choice between
work and leisure. In the low-income conditions of the period, it is doubtful that
much leisure was chosen.
To measure the actual extent of women's participation in agriculture, the
censuses are of some help but have limitations. According to the entire series of
censuses from 1927 to the present, large proportions of adult women in rural
Turkey make agriculture their main occupation. The 1935 census, for example,
shows that almost the same number of women worked as men (Table 5). This
result derives directly from the rules of classification for the census: When the
women's husband or household head is a farmer, she is mechanically classified as
an agricultural worker unless some other main occupation is reported. The census
rules probably express a valid insight, which is why the rules exist, but the
numerical results are not genuine measures of work by women.
The census rules can be tested by comparing the census with some other
enumeration that was open to different answers. For 1975, both a census and a
survey are available. They are not of use for the 1920s and 1930s but illustrate
the point. Women in 25 villages distributed nationally were asked about the
work that they do. Answers were classified by giving first chance to nonagricultural work, then agricultural work, and finally homemaking as a last resort. The
results, shown in Table 6, confirm that women work extensively in agriculture,

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The Population of Turkey After the Warof Independence 431

even when the classification system favors nonagricultural work. Mubeccel Kiray
observed in the 1960s that rural women she studied in Cukurova (Adana) region
knew how to do all the farm tasks, without exception (Hinderink and Kiray
1970).
Nonagricultural Employment of Women
Following independence, there was an increase of women's employment outside
the agricultural sector. It happened in modern factory industry, in white-collar
occupations, and in the professions, within both the private sector and government. No such trend had been noted before independence except that a moderate
amount of female employment sprung up during the wars. Regarded by commentators as quite exceptional, female employment was encouraged by the war
government and reinforced by formal organizations. In Istanbul, the Islamic
Association for Employment of Ottoman Women was established in 1914 to find
employment for women so that they could "earn income honestly and thereby be
protected" (Toprak 1982, p. 314 ff.).
Demographic factors played a role on the supply side of female labor, leading
to a willingness to seek employment and to press for income-earning opportunities in the Republican economic environment. The story of the 1920s and
1930s concerns a small number of women, compared with present-day employment of women, but the nonagricultural sectors where jobs could be sought were
also small, although expanding. The analytic paradigm to explain the movement
of women into the labor force has several demographic elements.
Female participation was favored in a general way by the sexual imbalance of
the population. To support families, women would have to carry proportionately
more of the burden. However, there was more to the demographic pressure than
simple sex ratios. Although Turkey had not yet entered its demographic transition, fertility was low in the cities. This was an enabling condition because
women who spend less time with pregnancies and child care can find more time
for work outside the home. Reference to urban fertility is highly relevant to the
analysis of nonagricultural employment because the jobs outside agriculture, and
especially the ones that women obtained, were mainly urban.
The basic evidence concerning urban fertility refers to the early 1930s. It is the
number of young children enumerated separately for urban and rural places in the
1935 census that implies the number of births during the immediately preceeding
years. The births can be estimated approximately by assuming plausible rates of
child mortality. This is done in Table 7 and shows that urban fertility was on the
order of one-half that of rural fertility. While the computations refer to the early
1930s, the 1935 census data also imply a rural-urban differential extending back
into the 1920s. The assumptions necessary to make long backwards estimates of
differentials are tenuous, so quantification is restricted to the early 1930s.
Another demographic factor that enhanced the supply of female labor was the
extraordinary level of widowhood in post-independence Turkey. The 1927 census
counted approximately one million widows. The same was not true of men, who
were fewer in number to begin with and who mostly remarried younger women
after losing their spouses. Male widowers were only one-tenth as numerous as

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432

Frederic C. Shorter
TABLE

Urban-rural fertility differentials for the early 1930s

based on the 1935 census age distributions

Division of the population

Proportion of
population
under age 10

Crude birth rate

implied by infant
mortality rate (I MR) of 270

Corresponding
total fertility
rate

Total
Males
Females

.3344
.2963

54

71

Urban (> 10,000)

Males
Females

.2106
.2202

33 (30)"

4.4 (3.9)

Rural (< 10,000)

Males
Females

.3618
.3107

58 (59)"

7.7 (7.8)"

aEstimates are given of fertility that would result if an assumption of child mortality lower in urban
than rural areas were used in the estimation procedure (IMRs of 200 and 290 per thousand
respectively). It is known that urban child mortality was lower than rural by one-third or more from
1945 to the present (Shorter and Macura 1982, p. 9), so a similar assumption for the 1930s is entirely
plausible. The results are shown within parentheses.
Note. Column 1 shows the number of children enumerated in the 1935 census expressed as a
proportion of the total population. The fertility estimates (columns 2 and 3) are made by a standard
demographic technique that is suitable for application to subdivisions of a national population. It is
similar in principle to reverse-population projection. In this application, the infant mortality rate that
is assumed is similar to that used for the reverse projections in Table 3. The method is explained in
Demeny and Shorter (1968) and makes use of tabulations of stable population models for convenience in calculation (U.N. 1967, Ch 3B). Changes in the assumption about the general level of
child mortality would affect the estimate of the overall level of fertility but would not affect the
differentials significantly. Since the urban population of mothers in 1935 contained few immigrants,
one can rule out misallocation of children between rural and urban areas as a measurement bias that
would, in any event, tend to raise, not lower, estimates of urban fertility.

widows. Widowhood included young and middle-aged women as well as older

women. The age pattern is confirmed by the 1935 census for which the widowhood data are given by age groups (Table 8). High proportions of widows meant
that there was an increased number of female-headed households and more than
expected numbers of women living in the households of relatives. The inducement
(or pressure) to enter the economy is strongest in the urban areas, where more
cash income is required for family support than in rural settings. With these
pressures, widows themselves had reason either to enter the economy or to take
charge of home tasks, freeing other women of the household to do so.
The demographic factors refer to the supply side of female labor and must be
placed in a context that involves demand factors as well. Two different labor
markets may be identified to cover a substantial portion of nonagricultural
female employment. One market is for production workers in manufacturing
industry. The other is for white-collar and professional workers. Each is considered separately.

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The Population of Turkey After the Warof Independence 433

TABLE

Widows in urban and rural places by age, 1935

Urban

Age in 1935
Under 30
30-39
40-49
50-59
60 and over
Totalh

Ever-married
Women
Widows
192
185
139
102
110
728

7
18
39
53
88
205

Rural
Percentage
4
10
28
52
80
28

Ever-married
Women
Widows
1,130
931
628
460
512
3,661

Percentage

24
59
152
230
378
844

2
6
24
50
74
23

Figures in thousands.
hExcluding women of unknown age. All figures are computed from unrounded data and then
rounded for presentation.
Note: Illustrative of high widowhood rates in cities, 33% of ever-married women were widows in
Istanbul in 1927. For men, it was 5%. The lower widowhood rates for rural areas are explained by
remarriage of women after becoming widows. The agricultural setting makes it especially difficult for
women to support themselves alone as widows, so stronger social pressures exist there than in cities
for remarriage. However, as can be seen above, that strategy is only marginally successful. Men tend
to marry much younger upon remarriage.

Manufacturing was a home industry, for the most part, prior to the 1920s,
providing consumer goods such as textiles, rugs, garments, and all kinds of
artisanal products. Home industry went into a decline during the 1920s because
of the competition of foreign products and the disappearance of organizing
enterprises headed by Greeks and other minorities. In the 1930s, there was
a temporary revival due to tariff protection (prevented before 1929 by the
Lausanne Treaty) and Turkish replacement of lost entrepreneurial skills. However, modern manufacturing was growing under the impetus of a state industrial
policy (etatism). the first modern textile mills were opened in 1925, and by 1938
they took over most of the internal market (West 1958, p. 42; Boratav 1981).
Women worked in home industry, along with children and men. As factory
industry expanded, home-industry jobs were diminished, but women were
recruited into the new expanding sector of manufacturing. It is unlikely that the
same women lost employment in one place and gained it in another. While rural
families suffered, urban families in the lower economic classes acquired new jobs.
The 1927 industrial census, which counted workers at their workplaces, shows 38
thousand females at work in establishments of 4 or more workers, 26% of all
production workers. The largest concentration was in textiles, where 16 thousand
female workers accounted for 52% of the work force. Distributions of the female
work force by age indicate that women of a wide range of ages were employed,
not merely young women for a few years prior to marriage. Indeed, to be
married before accepting factory employment was considered desirable.
By any account, the extent of female participation in the new, mainly consumergoods industries of Turkey must be considered remarkable for a nominally sexsegregated society. In addition to the demographic factors that translated into

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434

Frederic C. Shorter
TABLE 9

School enrollment and Graduatesfor primary Schools,

1929-30 to 1949-50'
Females

Males
1929-30

1939-40

1949-50

1929-30

1939-40

1949-50

Enrollment
Population aged 7 to 11
Enrollment ratio

316
616
51%

609
1,191
51%

986
1,237
80%

163
636
26%

282
1,143
25%

572
1,149
50%

Graduates
Population aged 12
Graduates ratio

16
109
15%

54
207
26%

119
241
50%

6
113
6%

21
198
11%

51
222
23%

Enrollments and graduates

Graduates of secondary and higher schools

School level
Secondary
Technical secondary
Lycee
Higher institutions

2,497
-h
548
566

9,550
1,497
2,319
1,253

8,123
10,868
4,414
2,468

899
_h

150
38

3,492
1,072
645
287

3,219
2,367
1,185
657

bNot available.
aFigures in thousands.
Note: To minimize the influence of year-to-year fluctuations so that trends are revealed, all data are
three-year averages centered on the dates shown. The enrollment data are from a special compilation,
presumed to be comparable over time, from the 1953 Statistical Yearbook. The population
denominators for the ratios come from the censuses after adjustment for age misreporting and from
the reverse projections of the present study.

economic pressures on the supply side, there was the legitimizing influence of
prior women's work in home and cottage industry. Also, there was the limited
wartime experience in Istanbul, and the generally more "open" texture of the
large-city environments. Finally, Greek and other minority women were withdrawn from the labor market, so they were not available to compete for jobs
when the demand for factory labor arose. Although the precise impact of
demographic factors cannot be calibrated, the configuration of forces outlined
here suggests they were important. It may be significant that after all the changes
that have occurred since the 1920s and 1930s, women's employment in the
manufacturing sector today (1975 population census) accounts for only 18% of
production jobs, though the number employed has increased (to 242 thousand
women) with the growth of the sector itself.
The second labor market covers a broad range of white-collar and professional
workers, most of them urban. This market is middle and upper class, and entry
requires education. To account for women's employment in this market, another
factor in addition to growth of production in the sector of employment must be
introduced. Education, the intermediate long-term factor that opens the way for
employment of the middle and upper classes, was given a high priority by the
Republic. The results are shown in Tables 9 and 10. Until women entered the
educational system, very little middle- and upper-class employment was possible.

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The Population of Turkey After the War of Independence

TABLE

10

435

University graduates, 1920-1938

Field

Males

Percentage
Females

Females

Law
Science and mathematics
Medicinea
Letters
Teaching
Other
Total

2,915
329
3,343
212
554
3,326
10,679

313
241
234
224
133
107
1,252

10
42
7
51
19
3
10

Year first
female graduated
1924
1921
1924
1920
1932
1932

aIncludes medicine, pharmacology, and dentistry. Istanbul University graduated 61 women medical
doctors out of a total of 1,864 medical doctors (3 percent). The first woman medical doctor was
graduated in 1927.
Source: 1937-38 Statistical Yearbook, pp. 449-452.

During the wars, only a small number of women had taken government posts in
the postal and nursing services.
Though education was nominally open to all, facilities were located mainly in
the cities. Consequently, when interpreting the national statistics (Table 9), the
use of national population denominators overstates schooling in rural areas and
understates the educational accomplishments of the cities. Istanbul was the great
center, where approximately 75% of girls attended primary school (estimated
from provincial enrollment data for 1929-30 and population estimates from
the reverse projections for the age group 7 to 11). Approximately the same
number of boys as girls were enrolled in primary schools in Istanbul. Izmir and
Bursa were not far behind, and other cities were, to varying degrees, centers of
education.
To present generations, it will not seem remarkable that families availed
themselves of educational opportunities for their daughters and supported some
of them for long periods of schooling. For young women in the 1920s, however,
this was a new mode of preparation. The parent generation had learned in the
difficult economic times of post-independence Turkey that women often had to
contribute to the support of their families by falling back on their own earning
capabilities. Thus, in urban Turkey, helping daughters equip for a future that no
one could predict was an idea born out of the struggle for a living that Turkish
women themselves were experiencing.
Concurrent with the educational expansion, there was a rapid rise in demand
for Turkish workers with educational qualifications. A contributory factor was
the withdrawal of minorities, previously important suppliers of trained personnel.
In addition, the new policies of the Republic were expanding the government
services, and the demand for workers from private commerce and industry was
also rising. Women could compete successfully for a share of employment because
of the general scarcity of skills that plagued the Republic in its early years, but
their progress was limited by the limited number of educated women.

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436

Frederic C. Shorter
TABLE IWomen's

white-collar and
1927 to 1945 a

professional employment,
Year

Males

Females

Percentage
female

1927
1935
1945

133
380
661

9
18
32

6
5
5

Figures in thousands.
Note: Census definitions and categories are not fully comparable over time: 1927, sum of liberal professions, functionaries (memur), magistrates, and post and telegraph
employees; 1935 and 1945, sum of liberal professions,
public services, and administration.

Already by 1929-30, women filled 5,030 teaching posts. By 1939-40, the

number was 7,950, including 131 at the university level (13% of the university
and government
staff). Women were employed in banking, communications,
the
A
of
branch.
view
the
initial uptake of
service, including
judiciary
general
women in white-collar and professional work is shown by the population censuses (Table 11). Like the educational facilities that women attended to qualify
for these jobs, the work was located largely in the cities. The only important
exception was primary-school teaching. Istanbul employed 40% of all the women
nationally employed in 1927 in white-collar and professional jobs.
In the social classes of the cities where women were given education, especially
at the higher levels, controlled fertility in the parents' as well as daughter's
generations was undoubtedly of great importance. It is known from studies at
later dates that education is strongly associated with fertility differentials in
Turkey (Timur 1977). When this enabling condition is combined with the economic pressures, including widowhood, of post-independence Turkey, the enrollment of daughters in schools and their subsequent entry into the labor market
are understood. Attention is paid in other studies to the emancipation of women
or to processes of class stratification and protection that may have drawn women
into the highest-ranking professions (Tekeli 1981; Oncu 1981), but it is suggested
here that the demographic factors were also important.
DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS IN SOCIAL CHANGE

These notes have emphasized the particular demographic conditions that

obtained in the early years of post-independence Turkey. They are quantified
and set out in some detail for the period. The influence of these factors on social
change is illustrated by referring to two aspects of social and economic history:
agricultural development and the participation of women in the economy during
the first two decades or so of the Republic. These illustrations by no means
exhaust the potential for taking into account the intertwining of demographic
factors with the process of social change. Demographic conditions are not

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The Population of Turkey After the War of Independence 437

constants. They change powerfully over time, with built-in time lags, playing
determinative roles in what has happened and what is going to happen.
POPULATION COUNCIL
WEST ASIA AND NORTH AFRICA
CAIRO

ACKNOWLEDGMENT
I want to acknowledge the collaboration of Belgin Tekce and the valuable suggestions of Mubbecel
Kiray, Caglar Keyder, and Leila Bisharat.
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APPENDIX
Reverse Population

Projection

The technique of reverse population projection is most often used in demographic

analysis to estimate fertility levels for periods of time prior to a census (or survey). It can
also be used to reconstruct the whole population at dates earlier or intermediate of
existing censuses. The technique is explained first by a mathematical statement; then, the
data requirements are discussed. The explanation given below is extracted in part from a
technical publication by Shorter and Macura (1982, pp. 101-6).

Mathematical Statement
The basic element of a population projection is a group of persons whose common
identification is their sex and period of birth. They form a birth cohort, which for
convenience in calculations is defined as a five-year cohort. A reverse projection is made
by reverse surviving each cohort separately back through time, in cycles of five years.
Each cycle is a separate reverse projection providing the starting point for the next five

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The Population of Turkey After the War of Independence 439

years. The projection keeps track of each cohort separately as it is increased by reverse
survival (deaths are restored to the population), by reversing in- and out-migrations, and
by removing cohorts from the population as the cohorts are carried back to birth. Cohorts
are designated as follows for each five year cycle:
Cohort
index(c)

Age at
year-5

Age at
year0

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Born
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34

0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39

35-39

40-44

9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+

45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+

The reverse-survival equation, omitting migration for the moment, is as follows:

= 0,16; migration = 0)
= CO?/S,,
C,5
.S, ',
.,' (c

(1)

where C is the five-year birth cohort, s stands for sex (male or female), c stands for the
cohort index number, and S is the five-year survival rate. The superscript, 0 or -5, refers
to the date in years.
When the reverse-survival equation is applied to the youngest birth cohort, c = 0, the
result is a quantity of births, B, during the five-year period:
Bs

C-5
s,o

(2)

At the upper end of the age distribution the two age groups 75-79 and 80+ are
combined into 75+ in the initial data for year 0. In order to reverse-projectthis uppermost
age group, the two cohorts that it contains (15 and 16) must be split out separately. The
reverse-survival equation cannot be applied to cohorts 15 and 16 until this splitting has
been performed.
In the absence of other information, the proportion of the life-table population age
75+ that is aged 75-79 is used as the basis for splitting:
C,. 5 = [5L75/(5L75+ To)] 1A
CO., 16 - .AA - C?,

15

(3)
(4)

where 5L75and T80are life-table notations that refer respectively to person-years lived in
the age interval 75-80 and from 80 years of age to the end of life. The notation A refers to
the size of the given population that is aged 75+ at the base year of the projection (year 0).

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440

Frederic C. Shorter

The assumption of a stationary life-table age distribution at the uppermost ages is

usually incorrect in applied work because mortality and fertility were neither equal nor
constant in the past. Migration causes additional derivations from the stationary pattern.
Nevertheless, for short reverse projections, such as five or ten years, an incorrect assumption about age structure at the highest ages will have a negligible effect on estimates of
recent demographic rates (e.g., CBR and CDR). For longer reverse projections, however,
the cumulative effect of error over a number of five-year cycles is a matter of concern.
A second approach to splitting the uppermost age group is to utilize independent
information from a census at date -5 years concerning the actual distribution of population above age 70. This approach may be used when suitable data are available; in the
present instance they are not, so the mathematical explanation is omitted.
An additional complexity is migration, which is included in the general formulation of
the reverse projection. Since migration is not known in detail and is not considered in the
reverse projection from 1935 to 1922, this addition to the mathematical statement is also
omitted here.
Various fertility indices are calculated from the resulting projection. Total births are the
sum of births by sex given by equation (2). The crude birth rate is total births divided by
the geometric mean of population at dates 0 and -5.
Age-specific fertility rates are calculated by introducing independent information about
the distribution of childbearing by age of woman. The independent data are a model
age-specific fertility schedule or a representative schedule from the population itself,
expressed as rates or as a percentage distribution across the age range of 15-49. The
schedule is denoted by F,* where the index, i, refers to the 7 five-year age groups from 15
to 49. The shape of the schedule, not its level, is used to distribute births by age of woman
and thus to estimate the age-specific fertility rates. Consequently, any reasonable schedule
can serve this purpose.
A preliminary step is to calculate the geometric mean of women in each age group from
15 to 49, W8i. A trial number of births, B*, is then calculated as follows:
WF
(Fj

B*=5-

i=1

(5)

Since the age-specific fertility rates, F*i, are not the actual ones, they must be revised
by a multiplier k, which brings B* into agreement with B.
k = B/B*

F- = k F (i = 1,7)

(6)

(7)

The total fertility rate, TFR, is the sum of the age-specific rates:
TFR = 5 Z F

(8)

Data Requirements
The minimum set of information needed for a reverse projection includes a distribution
of the population by age and sex, and assumptions about mortality over the period of the
reverse projection. In a reverse projection, the number of births is reconstructed from
information on the number of survivors in the current population distribution and the

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The Population of Turkey After the War of Independence

441

past mortality rate. Therefore, no fertility assumptions are necessary. Nevertheless, the
results include numbers of births and various fertility indices.
The reverse projection is made by five-year age groups in steps of five years, going back
in time as far as necessary. If the final data do not happen to be a multiple of 5 years from
the base date, interpolation between two 5-year dates on either side will give the desired
result. This procedure was used to make the reverse projections to 1927 and 1922 from
1935.
The minimum data take the form of the following: (1) an age distribution for each sex
in five-year groups from age 0 to an open-ended interval 75+; (2) a set of life table
survival rates for each sex for each five-year reverse projection period. These are normally
selected from model life tables.
In order to calculate total fertility rates from the fertility information given by the
projection, a distribution of childbearing by age of woman is also given. A natural fertility
schedule adjusted for the proportions of women married at each age (1935) is used here.
This step is not a necessary one in reverse projection, but adds to the results one more
piece of information (the total fertility rate).

GLOSSARY

OF DEMOGRAPHIC

TERMS

Cohort. A group of individuals identified by having experienced the same event during a
specified period. For example, members of a birth cohort are all born during the same
period and belong at every date thereafter to a specified age group that becomes older
each year.
Crude birth rate (CBR). The number of births in a population during a specified period
divided by the number of person-years lived by the population during the same period.
CBR is frequently expressed as yearly births per 1,000 population.
Crude death rate (CDR). The number of deaths in a population during a specified period
divided by the number of person-years lived by the population during the same period.
CDR is frequently expressed as yearly deaths per 1,000 population.
Expectation of life at birth. The average number of years that members of a cohort of
births would be expected to live if the cohort were subject to a particular set of
mortality rates by age; usually stated in the form of a life table.
Infant mortality rate (IMR). The number of children dying under one year of age divided
by the number of children born in the same cohort. The rate is usually expressed per
1,000 births and calculated for a one-year cohort of births.
Rate of natural increase. The difference between the number of births and deaths during a
specified period of time divided by the number of person-years lived by the population
during the same period. This rate, which excludes changes due to migration, is the
difference between the crude birth rate and the crude death rate.
Stable population. A population exposed for a long time to constant fertility and mortality
rates, and closed to migration. These conditions produce a fixed age distribution and a
constant rate of growth.
Stationary population. A stable population that has a zero growth rate, with equal and
constant numbers of births and deaths per year. A stationary population's age structure
is determined by the mortality rates by age.
Totalfertility rate (TFR). The average number of children that would be born per woman
if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to
the current set of fertility rates by age of women.

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