The Presidential Election – Part 2

The 2006 Presidential election was won easily by President Lula over the PSDB
candidate, former governor of the State of São Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin. The election
went to a second round, which was almost a surprise as Alckmin had been trailing in
voting indications. The total electorate in 2006 was 125.7 million. Alckmin’s problem
was his inability after succeeding in the first round to win 39.7 million votes, to maintain
his momentum, and he fall back to 37.5 million (39.2% of the vote) when there was only
he and President Lula on the ballot.

Presidential Election 2006 – The Second Round

The map above represents the percentages polled by President Lula in the second round
of the 2006 Presidential election. All the colors, with the exception of red denote a Lula
victory, or 50% plus 1 of the votes. The red states were those won by Alckmin. It is often
said that the USA is regionally polarized, and in 2006 Brazil clearly demonstrated a
similar tendency. Interestingly, Roraima, the most northerly state, and one with only a
handful of voters (173,822 voters cast ballots in 2006) voted for Alckmin.

In other states, Lula’s vote exceeded 80% of ballots cast, such as Amazonas, Maranhão
and Ceará. He gained more than 70% in the states of Bahia, Tocantins, Piauí,
Pernambuco e Paraíba. He earned 60% in the States of Rio Grande do Norte, Alagoas,
Para, Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro. In the North he won Acre and
Roraima, and in the Center-West he won the Federal District and Goias with more than
50% of the vote. In Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Paraná, São Paulo, Mato Grosso
and Mato Grosso do Sul Lula won more than 40% of the vote, and in Roraima, 38.5%.

This showing by Lula and the PT in 2006 was immensely strong, which on the one hand,
with an incumbent President, a growing economy and an opponent that was little known
outside the State of Sao Paulo, perhaps should have been expected. On the other hand,
however, the President was only just emerging from the damaging “Mensalão” scandal
involving alleged payments to legislators in exchange for their votes, which had forced
the resignation of his Minister of Casa Civil, Jose Dirceu.

With this election we do not have an incumbent President, but rather two candidates, one
only slightly better known to the Brazilian electorate than the other. Jose Serra was the
PSDB candidate for the Presdiency in 2002. He was also Minister of Health during the
Fernando Henrique Cardoso administration, and is viewed as largely responsible for the
introduction of generic drugs to Brazil. Dilma Rousseff is slightly less well known as she
was for many years a regional politician and administrator in the State of Rio Grande do
Sul. In 2005 she replaced Jose Dirceu as Lula’s Minister of Casa Civil. Thus, we can
expect a much more competitive race than 2006.

For Serra, perhaps the first challenge will be to increase the vote in those states that
Alckmin won from 50% + to at least the 60% levels. These are some of the most
populous states in the Federation, particularly Sao Paulo, with nearly 30 million voters
being the largest (1), Rio Grande do Sul (5), Parana (6) and Santa Catarina (10) also rank
in the top ten states in terms of size. The Lula campaign has already made it clear that
maximizing their vote in Minas Gerais will be key. They have the advantage that Dilma
is a Minas Gerais native, although not having spent much of her adult life there. They
have the disadvantage that in this election, the Governor of Minas Gerais, Aecio Neves
will be a committed and active supporter of Jose Serra even if he does not accept to be
Serras Vice Presidential candidate.

To win this election, Serra will have to gain support in the Southeast, Rio and Minas
Gerais particularly, and everywhere in the North/ Northeast. For Lula the challenge will
be to maintain support in the North/ Northeast and make headway in key states in the
Southeast and South such as Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul.