Daily Markets Update

23 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
Daily Markets Update
1 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
Fundamental Outlook:
Europe divided as to how and when to help Greece!
Yesterday's trading had no major announcements other than central bank minutes and commentary from a number of central banks. The
main driver yesterday was risk aversion due to a divided Europe as to if and how they are going to assist Greece. We also had a round of
commentary by various Fed members; initially Fed President Lockhart believes that the impact of ending the MBS purchases would be
minimal. Following this Fed's Bullard reiterated his opposition to the 'extended' period rhetoric as it boxes the
Federal Reserve limiting its policy options. Equities closed +0.41% yesterday whilst the 2 year US Treasury yields traded between 1.01% and
0.96% whilst the USDJPY traded between 89.81 - 90.76.
In Europe yesterday the battle for Greece continues as EU Commission President Barroso was fighting to secure an agreement for Greece
whilst Germany's Angela Merkel was saying that aid to Greece can only be as a last resort measure. She also said that since Greece has not even
asked for financial aid discussion on the matter is inappropriate. Trichet spoke yesterday also and was commenting on the possibility of an
EMF been established, however he said that to kick a member state out of Europe is legally impossible. We also had confirmation by Greece
that its fiscal deficit was 12.9% of GDP for the 2009 year end. EURUSD price action yesterday was between 1.3568 - 1.3463.
In the UK we have the CPI figures today for the month of February and a weaker than the prior month's reading is expected at 0.5% mm and
3.1% yy. The BoE inflation target is 2% and the current jump in inflation is one of the main reasons as to why the GBPUSD is back above the
1.5000 level. The current situation in the UK makes it difficult for speculators to predict the BoE's next step. On the one hand a weak economy
with fiscal strains may encourage further QE to bring down yields and spark some growth. On the other hand the high CPI rates above BoE
targets may encourage the BoE to maintain a steady monetary policy so as to tame inflation. GBPUSD price action yesterday was between
1.4928 - 1.5110.
Today's market will turn its focus towards the UK CPI reports where a 3.1% yy number is expected well above the BoE target of 2%. We also
have the CBI Realized sales index expected to come in lower than previous month at 18. In the US we have the Richmond Manufacturing index
expected at 5. Treasury Secretary Geithner will be speaking before the house of Financial Services Committee today also.
EURUSD
The Technical out look for the EUR/USD Tuesday, March 23Rd, 2010, level 1.3516
As I said previously during the past commentaries the EUR/USD's consolidation from 1.3443 has likely completed at 1.3815 after failing to
reach the mentioned resistances at 1.3838 or 1.3866. Initial bias is still on the downside for a test on 1.3435 low first. Break will confirm that
whole decline from 1.5143 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 1.4578 to 1.3443 from 1.3815 at 1.3111 or the 150.0%
projection of 1.5143 to 1.4217 from 1.4578 at 1.3147. The RSI & the stochastic oscillators are in bear mode as well as all our indicators,
confirming by the way the likely continuation of the fall.
On the upside: Yesterday EUR/USD fails to close below 1.3550/30, but fall as far as 1.3463during the cession, and by the way the 1.3435
cluster point is still intact. A move to 1.3626 will flip intraday bias back to the upside. A close above the upper band of the descending channel
now at 1.3560 will indicated that we are perhaps still in the consolidation. A move 1.3626 will open the gate to 1.3710 and target again 1.3815
first followed by the 100% projection of 1.3735-1.3434 measuring from 1.3537 at 1.3838 , this level is very near of 1.3866 (38.2% retracement
of 1.4579 to 1.3434). If the market gets to that point (1.3815/38/66), we must monitor again for a topping action, but also beware of a possible
break above.
On the other hand, the current support at 1.3550/30 is strong and has held up again. So wait for a break below 1.3435 to confirm outlook to
1.31 areas.
Furthermore in an Elliott Wave point of view and I kept my count, the bigger picture, outlook remains unchanged. The three wave rises from
1.2329 is treated as consolidation to fall from 1.6039 only and should have completed at 1.5143 already. Fall from 1.5143 is tentatively treated
as resumption of the whole down trend form 1.6039 and should target a new low below 1.2329. Otherwise, we'd expect fall 1.5143 to continue
even in case of strong rebound. Technically the EURO IS IN A BEAR TREND as far that 1.4217 is not broken up, with an intermediate target at
1.3400-1.3420 (slightly done by the move 1.3434) and my EW projection show a more likely target for this completed wave at 1.3111/47 with
an intermediate EW target at target 1.3343/48 (50% projection of 1.4580-1.3585 measuring from 1.3840 and 1.4415 to 1.3532 measuring
from 1.3789). Following my count we have ended wave 4 of III at 1.3815 and we are heading to the mentioned targets but we need to break
1.3445 to confirm this count.
In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 has made an important top at 1.6039 in 2008. Subsequent price actions
are so far viewed as a correction only, in form of three waves. First wave has completed at 1.2329 while secondly should have completed at
1.5143. Fall from 1.5143, as the third wave of correction, is in progress and should extend to 1.1639 supports, and possibly further to 100%
projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209
to conclude the correction and bring another long term up trend.
USD/CHF:
The technical outlook for USD/CHF Tuesday, March 23Rd, 2010, level 1.0612
Although the USD/CHF retreated after yesterday's brief rise to 1.0662 and crossing over the minor resistance at 1.0647, as dollar has
rebounded again from 1.0563 (yesterday's low), suggesting further near term choppy trading would take place and another bounce to said
resistance cannot be ruled out, however, only break and close above of the short trend indicator now at 1.0635(light blue line on the chart)
would signal recent fall from 1.0899 has possibly ended at 1.0506 and bring stronger rebound to 1.0809 first and will pave the way to 61.8%
projection of 0.10131to 1.0898 from 1.0506 at 1.0911 next.
On the Downside: On a break below 1.0563 first will pave the way to the minor support at 1.0534 and a break of this level will bring another
fall for the lower band of the ascending channel now at 1.0518/16(green line on the chart and Fibonacci retracement)) or to the 61.8%
retracement of 1.0131 to 1.0897 at 1.0429and will conclude the consolidation and bring rally resumption. There is no change in the view that
it's a correction in the larger rise. Hence, we'd expect downside to be contained by the mentioned supports to conclude the correction.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, there is no change of my view: The medium term correction from 1.2296
should have completed with three waves down to 0.9916 already. Current rise from 0.9916 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long
term up trend from 2008 low of 0.9634. Sustained break of mentioned medium term trend line resistance (Green trend line on chart now at
1.0903) will further affirm this view. In such case, we'd be looking at stronger rise to 1.1963/2296 resistance zone in medium term. On the
downside, break of 1.0131 supports is needed to invalidate this bullish view. Otherwise, another rise is still expected even in case of deep
pullback.
EUR/CHF:
The technical outlook for EUR/CHF Tuesday, March 23Rd, 2010, level 1.4342
EUR/CHF breached 1.4315 EW target briefly (1.4308) but recovered since then. But after all, we'd expect the current fall to continue with
1.4406 minor resistance intact. Sustained trading below key support of 1.4315 will pave the way to 1.4 psychological level next. On the upside,
break of 1.4406 will indicate that a short term bottom is in place and stronger recovery could be seen to the short term trend indicator at now
at 1.4541(light blue line on the chart) before resuming the down trend.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the long term picture, the current decline in EUR/CHF should be resuming larger term down
trend from 1.6827. Sustained trading below 1.4135 (2008 low) will confirm this case and should target 61.8% projection of 1.6368 to 1.4315
from 1.5138 at 1.3869 next. On the upside, break of 1.4557 spike resistance is needed to be first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will
remain bearish.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to
extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run.
GBP/USD:
The technical outlook for GBP/USD Tuesday, March 23Rd, 2010, level 1.5028
With some of our indicators showing a loss of momentum for the down side, an intraday low should be in place at 1.4931 and the bias is turned
neutral. Some consolidations could be seen but upside should be limited by the short term trend indicator now at 1.5163 (light blue line on the
chart) and bring fall resumption. As discussed before, choppy recovery from 1.4783 should have completed with three waves up to 1.5381
already. Further fall should be seen to retest 1.4783 low first. Break will confirm that whole decline from 1.6456 is resuming for for 1.4364/37
next targets (200% projection of 1.6875 to 1.5829 from 1.6456 at 1.4364 or 61.8% projection from 1.6456 to 1.4783 from 1.5381 at 1.4337
and 76.4% retracement from 1.3500 to 1.6875 at 1.4337)
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, there is no change, we're holding on the bearish view that medium term
rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043 already. Fall from there is
tentatively treated as resumption of the down trend from 2.1161 and should target a new low below 1.3503. On the upside, break of 1.5815
resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the
multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (1985 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in
an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for
61.8% projection (2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043) at 1.2310 next.
AUD/USD:
The technical outlook for AUD/USD Tuesday, March 23Rd 2010, level 0.9161
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as it's still bounded in range below 0.9250. Nevertheless, another rise is still mildly in favor as long
as the lower band of the ascending channel now at 0.9091 holds (green line on the chart). Above 0.9250 will bring further rise to retest 0.9404
high. Above 0.9295 will target a retest on 0.9404 high. However, sustained trading below the lower band of the ascending channel and a break
below 90.36 will argue that rise from 0.8577 might have completed and deeper fall should be seen towards 0.8802 support next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture: the sustained trading above short term trend line (in light blue on chart now
at 0.9112) suggests that correction from 0.9404 has completed with three waves down to 0.8577. In other words, whole rally from 0.6008
might be set to resume for another high above 0.9404. If we treat the rise from 0.8577 as the fifth wave in the rise from 0.6008 with equal
length as the first wave from 0.6008 to 0.7267, upside target will be 0.9836, which is close to 2008 high of 0.9849. On the downside, break of
0.8802 supports is needed to be the first signal to revive the case that AUD/USD has already topped out. Otherwise, we'll remain cautiously
bullish in AUD/USD.
In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above
76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new uptrend which will extend the
long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 cluster support holds and expect an eventual
break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open
up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.
USD/JPY
The technical outlook for USD/JPY Tuesday, March 23Rd, 2010, level 90.34
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment as sideway trading form 91.08 is still in progress. Note that rise from 88.13 is still in
favor to continue as long as 89.62 cluster support (50% retracement of 88.13 to 91.08 at 89.60) holds. Above 91.08 will bring rally resumption
to 92.14 resistance next. However, decisive break of 89.62 cluster support will indicate that rise from 88.13 is possibly finished and will flip
intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, outlook is rather mixed and we'll stay neutral for the moment. On the upside,
break of 92.14 resistance will confirm that whole decline from 93.74 has completed with three waves down to 88.13 already. The corrective
structure will in turn indicate that rise from 84.81 is still in progress for another high above 93.74. On the downside, break of 88.13 will
reaffirm the bearish case that rise from 84.81 is completed at 93.74 already and will turn focus to 87.36 support for confirmation!
In the long term picture, downside momentum is clearly diminishing. However, there is no confirmation of long term reversal yet. Down trend
from 124.13 might still continue as long as 101.43 resistance holds and might extend further towards 79.75. Nevertheless, break of 101.43
resistance will break the lower high lower low pattern and will suggest that a long term bottom is in place. The trend should then reversed to
continue the sideway pattern that started at 79.75 in 1995
EUR/JPY
The technical outlook for EUR/JPY Tuesday, March 23Rd, 2010, level 122.28
With 122.62 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside and further decline is still in favor to retest 119.64 low
first. As discussed before, choppy recovery from 119.64 should have completed at 125.19 already, after failing 125.22 cluster resistance
(38.2% retracement of 134.36 to 119.64 at 125.26). Break of 119.64 will confirm down trend resumption to 61.8% projection of 134.36 to
119.64 from 125.19 at 116.09 next. On the upside, above 122.62 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn intraday bias neutral
again. But after all, we'd continue to expect strong resistance at 125.22/26 to conclude the corrective rise from 119.64 and bring down trend
resumption.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, there is no change in our bearish view. That is, medium term rebound from
112.10, which is treated as a correction to long term down trend from 2008 high of 169.96, should have completed at 139.21 already, after
multiple failure to sustain above 55 weeks EMA. Recent decline is expected to resume sooner or later to a new low below 112.10. However,
note that decisive break of 125.22 cluster resistance will argue that recent fall might have completed already. Further break of 126.88 support
turned resistance will argue that medium term rise from 112.10 might be still in progress for another high above 139.21 before completion.
In the long term picture, the uptrend from 88.96 (2000 low) was completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Fall from 169.96 should
develop into a three wave correction with first wave completed at 112.10, second wave completed at 139.21. Current fall is likely the third
wave and should extend beyond to 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.21 from 139.21 at 103.45 or further to 100 psychological support next.
GBP/JPY
The technical outlook for GBP/JPY Tuesday, March 23Rd, 2010, level 135.98
The GBP/JPY break the 136.19 minor support suggests that an intraday low is in place at 134.53 and bias is turned neutral. Some recovery
might be seen but after all, upside is expected to be limited below 139.33 resistance and bring fall resumption. As discussed before, choppy
recovery from 132.13 should have completed at 139.33 already after hitting 139.21 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 150.68 to 132.13
at 139.21, 61.8% retracement of 143.59 to 132.13 at 139.21). Below 134.53 will turn bias back to the downside for 132.13 low first. Break
there will confirm down trend resumption and should target 61.8% projection of 150.68 to 132.13 from 139.33 at 127.86 next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture; The medium term rebound from 118.18, which is correction to the long term
down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Decline from 163.05 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term
down trend from 2007 high of 251.09 and should target a new low below 118.81. On the upside, decisive break of 143.59 cluster resistance
(61.8% retracement of 150.68 to 132.13 at 143.59) is needed to invalidate this view.
USD/CAD
The technical outlook for USD/CAD Tuesday, March 23Rd, 2010, level 1.0181
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations could still be seen above 1.0062. However, note that But
break of 1.0369 support turned resistance is needed to indicate that USD/CAD has bottomed. Otherwise, recent fall is still expected to
continue. Below 1.0062 will target a test on 1.0 psychological level next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, medium term decline from 1.3063 is still in progress. It's unclear whether such fall is resuming
the long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) or it is a part of a consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056 (2007 low). In either case, fall
from 1.3063 is now expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.3063 to 1.0784 from 1.1723 at 0.9444 next. On the upside, break of
1.0779 resistance is needed to be the first signal that fall from 1.3063 is finished. Otherwise, the Outlook for the USD/CAD remains bearish and
we will stay bearish as long as 1.0779 resistances held.
GOLD
The technical outlook for GOLD: Sunday, March 21St, 2010, level 1105.85
Outlook in gold remains neutral for the moment with main question on whether rise from 1044.5 is complete. Gold rebounded further to as
high as 1133.3 last week but subsequent sharp fall dampened the bullish view by trading again under the lower band of the ascending channel
now at 1126.60 (green line on the chart)and mixed up the outlook. We'll stay neutral for the moment and wait for confirmation on whether
rise from 1044.5 is finished. On the downside, break of 1097.3 (neck line of a Head and shoulders pattern) will complete a head and shoulders
top reversal pattern (LS: 1131.5, H: 1145.8, RS: 1133.3) and will suggest that rise from 1044.5 is completed. This will also argue that whole
correction from 1227.5 is still in progress. In such case, deeper fall should be seen to retest 1048.8 first, the target of the head and shoulders
pattern. On the upside, above 1133.3 will suggest that rise from 1044.5 is still in progress. Break of 1145.8 will target a test on 1163 resistance
first.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only, no
doubt. Question is on whether such correction is finished. As long as 1097.3 support holds, we'd favor the bullish case that correction from
1227.5 is completed and rise from 1044.5 is resuming larger up trend to another high above 1227.5. On the downside, however, break of
1097.3 will shift favor to the case that correction from 1227.5 is not completed and fall from 1145.8 would be developing into the third wave of
such correction for another low below 1044.5 perhaps to 1026 before longer term up trend resumption.
CrudeOIL
The technical outlook for OIL Tuesday, March 23Rd, 2010, level 81.66
Crude oil falls as low as 78.84 yesterday towards 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.16 at 77.94. Nevertheless, during yesterday cession the
crude oil rally after and closed at 80.57. The consolidation It’s over? On the upside, a close above 80.94 minor resistance will flip the bias back
to the upside. Further break of 83.16 will target 83.95 high. However, note that sustained trading below 77.94 fibo level will argue that rise
from 69.50 is completed and deeper fall would possibly be seen to retest this support.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise
from 33.2 might still be in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in
case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring
reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn
outlook bearish.
DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010
The technical outlook for DJI: Tuesday, March 23Rd, 2010, level 10747.9
As I have said previously: The DOW broke the 10723.4 cluster point and invalidate all Doom scenarios . The chart pattern still shows a real
bullish outlook for the DOW and with the regain of upside momentum. Yesterday the small consolidation tested the lower band of the
ascending channel now at 10635(green line on the chart) and held the correction. Now we are back to the upside. As said previously: as far
10432 hold, I remain bullish for the DOW but with a stop now below 10430. On the upside: with the break now of 10723.4, we may heading to
10814.4 next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the count suggests that the bear market ended in Mar 09. The anticipated 50% retracement rally
was actually the start of a new 70-80 year super cycle bull market. The three waves up, thus far, are only Major waves 1-2-3 of Primary wave I
of Cycle wave I of this bull market. Should the current downtrend conclude with alternation with the Jun/July downtrend, and hold the 10%
correction, it will be labeled Major wave 4 with up Major wave 5 to follow. The most obvious count would be an abc down from the highs into
DOW 9789.9 and an X or a B wave rally underway now, because we may count 3 waves up for now. But with the break up10723: the move from
10258.9 to 9789.9 is perhaps wave 4 of I and the current wave is wave 5 of I. But as said previously we count only 3 waves up on this rally and
we need a correction that perhaps ended yesterday for wave 4 of 5 of I. After the completion of this correction, another rally will follow to end
this wave structure, with a first target at 10814. Remember that this Wave I is the the start of a super bullish super cycle of 50-70 years and
will be followed by a wave II in correction that may be profound.
Economic Calendar
Tuesday, Mar 23, 2010
GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

-- GBP Hometrack Housing Survey M/M Mar -- 0.3%
-- GBP Hometrack Housing Survey Y/Y Mar -- 0.4%
05:00 JPY Supermarket Sales Y/Y Feb -- -4.9%
07:00 JPY Convenience Store Sales Y/Y Feb -- -5.3%
07:45 EUR French Business Confidence Indicator Mar 92 91
07:45 EUR French Production Outlook Indicator Mar -- -5
07:45 EUR French Own-Company Production Outlook Mar -- -6
09:30 GBP CPI M/M Feb 0.5% -0.2%
09:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Feb 3.1% 3.5%
09:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Feb 3.1% 3.1%
09:30 GBP RPI Feb 218.8 217.9
09:30 GBP RPI M/M Feb 0.7% 0.0%
09:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Feb 3.7% 3.7%
09:30 GBP RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments Y/Y Feb 4.3% 4.6%
09:30 GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase Feb 36500 35083
10:00 USD Fed's Charles Plosser Speaks in Prague Czech Republic -- --
11:00 GBP U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey Mar -- 23
12:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Feb 0.7% 0.9%
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales M/M Feb -1.0% -7.2%
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Feb 5.00M 5.05M
14:00 USD House Price Index M/M Jan -0.8% -1.6%
14:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Mar 5 2
19:35 USD Fed's Janet Yellen Speaks in Los Angeles California -- --
20:30 USD API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 19) -- 403K
20:30 USD API U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 19) -- -3654K
20:30 USD API U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 19) -- -756K
21:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence (MAR 21) -- -43
21:45 NZD Current Account Balance Q4 -1.600B -1.413B
21:45 NZD Current Account Deficit-GDP Ratio Q4 -2.0% -3.1%
23:50 JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (JPY) Feb 389.2B 728.4B
23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (JPY) Feb 560.6B 85.2B
23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Exports Y/Y Feb 45.7 40.9

23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Imports Y/Y Feb 33.0 8.6
Wednesday, Mar 24, 2010

00:00 AUD DEWR Skilled Vacancies M/M Mar -- 1.6%
08:00 EUR French PMI Manufacturing Mar A 54.5 54.9
08:00 EUR French PMI Services Mar A 54.8 54.6
08:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Mar A 56.8 57.2
08:30 EUR German PMI Services Mar A 52.0 51.9
08:30 EUR Italian Consumer Confidence Index s.a. Mar 107.7 107.7
09:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. Q4 8.3% 7.8%
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Mar A 52.0 51.8
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Mar A 54.0 54.2
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Composite Mar A 53.7 53.7
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders s.a. M/M Jan 2.0% 0.8%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders Y/Y Jan 14.4% 9.5%
09:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Mar 95.8 95.2
09:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Mar 101 100.9
09:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Mar 91.0 89.8
11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 19) -- -1.9%
12:30 GBP U.K. Treasury Publishes 2011 Budget Report -- --
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Feb 0.6% 3.0%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Feb 0.5% -0.6%
14:00 USD New Home Sales M/M Feb 1.9% -11.2%
14:00 USD New Home Sales Feb 315K 309K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 19) -- 1012K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 19) -- -1710K
14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 19) -- -1491K
14:45 USD Fed's Thomas Hoenig Speaks in Washington D.C. -- --
17:00 EUR French Total Jobseekers Change Feb -- 19.5
17:00 EUR French Total Jobseekers Feb -- 2664.6
21:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q4 0.8% 0.2%
21:45 NZD GDP Y/Y Q4 0.4% -1.3%
23:40 AUD RBA's Philip Lowe Speaks in Sydney Australia -- --
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Feb -1.2% -1.0%
Thursday, Mar 25, 2010

-- EUR European Union Summit -- --
00:00 USD Fed's Donald Kohn Speaks in Davidson North Carolina -- --
00:30 AUD RBA Semi-Annnual Financial Stability Review -- --
01:30 JPY BoJ's Hidetoshi Kamezaki Speaks in Kochi City Japan -- --
07:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (APR) 3.1 3.2
07:45 EUR French Consumer Spending M/M Feb 0.0% -2.7%
07:45 EUR French Consumer Spending Y/Y Feb 2.9% 1.5%
08:30 EUR Italian Business Confidence Mar 84.4 84.0
09:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales s.a. M/M Jan 0.1% 0.0%
09:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales Y/Y Jan 0.7%
09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 s.a. (3M) Feb -0.1% -0.1%
09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 s.a. Y/Y Feb -0.1% 0.1%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel M/M Feb 0.5% -1.2%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel Y/Y Feb 4.9% 2.6%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales inc Auto Fuel M/M Feb 0.8% -1.8%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales inc Auto Fuel Y/Y Feb 3.3% 0.9%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 20) 450K 457K
12:30 USD Continuing Claims (MAR 13) 4560K 4579K
13:00 USD RPX Composite 28 Day Y/Y Jan -- -1.1%
13:00 USD RPX Composite 28 Day Index (JAN 21) -- 193.91
13:10 USD Fed's Sandra Pianalto Speaks in Bonita Springs Florida -- --
14:00 USD Fed's Bernanke Testifies House Financial Services Committee -- --
21:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Feb -- 269M
21:45 NZD Trade Balance (YTD) (NZD) Feb -- -178M
21:45 NZD Imports (NZD) Feb -- 2.88B
21:45 NZD Exports (NZD) Feb -- 3.15B
22:15 AUD RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks in Sydney Australia -- --
23:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Jan -- 0.6%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y Mar -1.7% -1.8%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food Y/Y Mar -1.7% -1.8%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Ex Food Energy Y/Y Mar -1.2% -1.3%
23:30 JPY National CPI Y/Y Feb -1.1% -1.3%

23:30 JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food Y/Y Feb -1.2% -1.3%
23:30 JPY National CPI Ex Food Energy Y/Y Feb -1.1% -1.2%
Friday, Mar 26, 2010

-- EUR European Union Summit -- --
07:45 EUR French Consumer Confidence Indicator Mar -33 -33
09:30 GBP Total Business Investment Q/Q Q4 F -5.8% -5.8%
09:30 GBP Total Business Investment Y/Y Q4 F -24.1% -24.1%
10:30 CHF KOF Institute Economic Forecst Mar -- --
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q4 F 5.9% 5.9%
12:30 USD Personal Consumption Q4 F 1.7% 1.7%
12:30 USD Core PCE Q/Q Q4 F 1.6% 1.6%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q4 F 0.4% 0.4%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Mar F 73.0 72.5
15:30 USD Fed's Kevin Warsh Speaks in New York City -- --
20:00 USD Fed's Bullard ECB's Papademos Speak in Washington D.C -- --
22:00 USD Fed's Daniel Tarullo Speaks in Washington D.C. -- --
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23 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

Daily Markets Update

Europe divided as to how and when to help Greece!

DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010

Tuesday, Mar 23, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Exports Y/Y Feb 45.7 40.9

Wednesday, Mar 24, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Feb -1.2% -1.0%

Thursday, Mar 25, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

23:30 JPY National CPI Y/Y Feb -1.1% -1.3%

Friday, Mar 26, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

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