AT-SITE AND REGIONAL FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

OF THE UPPER AWASH SUB BASIN IN THE ETHIOPIAN

PLATEAU
Leuleseged Tadesse 1,
1
2

Mohamed A. Sonbol2,

Willems P. 3

Ministry of Water Resources, Addis Ababa 5744, Ethiopia, Leul_tad@yahoo.com

Water Resources Research Institute, National Water Research Center, P.O. Box 13621
El-Qanater El-Khairia, Egypt, m.sonbol@wrri.org.eg , wrri@wrri.org.eg
3

Hydraulics Laboratory, K.U.Leuven, Leuven, B-3001, Belgium,

Patrick.Willems@bwk.kuleuven.ac.be

Abstract
The conventional way of flood frequency analysis is applied in determining flood magnitudes
of defined return periods by selecting theoretically the best fit probability distributions. The
most important part of the distribution is the tail as far as extreme flooding phenomena are
utmost concern in water resources development and management. In most cases the central
part of the theoretical distribution fits satisfactorily with the empirical points. In FFA, the
objective is to estimate flood magnitude (Q) corresponding to any specified recurrent interval
of (T) years. The estimation is complicated due to lack of a physical basis for determining the
form of the underlying flood frequency distribution and the necessity of evaluating flood
event for return periods that exceed the observation period.
In order to improve the estimation of the Q-T relationship, the need to use regional
information arises so that stabilizing site specific estimates based on limited data can be
handled and as well as ungauged catchments. The regional FFA procedure involves the
definition and identification of homogeneous regions .In the present frequency analysis,
application of index-flood regional method of FFA is considered as one of the tools in
overcoming problems of ungauged catchments and streams having small sizes of observation
(n). For this purpose as part of FRIEND/Nile research activities, the upper sub-basin of
Awash River with 8 gauged streams consisting of stream flow records varying from 15 to 33
years has been analyzed. An extreme value distribution (EV1) is elected as the best fit
distribution for the sub-basin and this is also exhibited by other similar analysis in the Nile
basin countries (Kenya, Tanzania and the Sudan).
Regionalization is the generally accepted term to explain the transfer of information about
flood peaks at one catchment derived from other catchments with similar characteristics. The
advantage of such procedures is particularly great in the estimation of frequencies for higher
flood magnitudes with limited at site data do exist and inference in the tails of probability

distributions makes the stabilization of the estimators is difficult. It is quite clear that
regionalization is most viable way of improving flood quantile estimation. Although there
remain researchable topics in development and application of regionalization methods, the
performance of regional EV1 (Extreme Value) distribution is found to be highly satisfactory
and can be widely applied.
OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
The objective of the study is to identify appropriate procedure for flood frequency analysis of
stream flow gauging stations situated in the upper Awash sub-basin upstream of Koka dam.
Study of water resources and designs of hydraulic structures are being conducted based on
available techniques and methods of flood frequency analysis with little attention on the tails
of the distribution curves which in turn highly influence the provision of appropriate
solutions meeting safety and economic considerations.
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
The main challenge of flood from water resources development and management aspect is its
recurring interference with interventions and activities made by society. The loss of life and
damage can be pictured in terms of economic losses and danger to human life. The major
issue is here to critically analyze the frequency and magnitude of the flooding interference.
The basic idea of flood frequency analysis is to obtain an estimate of flood quantile magnitude
Q(T), for locations on a river system. Quantile estimates are used in planning, design,
construction and operation of water resources projects or decision process relating to
hydraulic works or flood alleviation programs and in general for water resources management
within river system.
The probability that QT is equaled or exceeded in any year is assumed to be 1/T. From this
follows that the probability of non-exceedence of QT for each year takes the form
F(Q T ) = 1-1/T

(1)

The major problem of flood quantile estimation stems from type of distribution and
availability of observed data for short period of time as compared to extrapolation usually
made by upper part of the theoretical curve.
AT- SITE DATA
Table (1) gives the characteristics of the selected hydrological stations in the upper Awash
area, while figure (1) shows the characteristics (Lengths, slopes and drainage areas) and
general location map of the Upper Awash area in Ethiopia. Figure (2) shows plots of annual
maximum discharges of stations in the Awash basin, while figure (3) shows plots of
dimensionless value of annual maximum discharges.
REGIONALIZATION
The common situation which we face is the availability of data consisting of small samples at
sites. Because of the high sampling variability associated with small sample particularly

estimating parameters of distribution with three or more parameters cannot be entirely

reliable unless supplemented by regional flood analysis. The transposition of information
about maximum discharges at one site is made from other catchments with similar
characteristics and this approach is known as regionalization. At present the regionalization
approach for flood frequency analysis is widely applied and becoming more popular. The
index flood method is one of the commonly applied ones.
Table 1(1): Characteristics of the hydrological stations of upper Awash sub-basin
Sl.
No.
1

2
3

Station Name

Coordinates

Drainage
Area
( km2)

Berga River Near Addis

Alem

249

Holeta River Near

Holeta

119

Awash River
Near Bello

2566

Tegj River Near Asogri

663

6
7

9 01'

3821'

UTM 996668
905'

428556
3831'
25

UTM 1004010
851'

884

Awash river
at Melka Kunture

4456

Awash River
at Hombole

7656

446886
3825'
15

UTM 978231
847'

Akaki River
at Akaki

Modjo River
at Modjo

Long.(E)

25

Lat. (N)

Sample
size(n) of
MAF in
years

435855
3820'
23

UTM 970876
853'

426678
3847'

UTM 981872
842'

476177
3836'

UTM 961622
823'

455998
3847'

18

33

33

1264

UTM 950551
836'

476159
3905'

UTM 950545

509170

31

Awash @ Melka Hombole

River Length =106.151 km
Slope = 0.33
Catchments area=7656 km 2

UPPER AWASH

Awash @ Melka Kuntira

River Length =57.353 km
Slope = 0.30
Catchments area=4456 km 2
Awas h @ Bello
River Length =32.383 km
Slope = 0.35
Catchments area=2568 km 2

BERGAANr. ADDIS %
a

HOLETANr. HOLET

Teji @ Assgori
River Length =24.142 km
Slope = 0.61
Catchments area=662 km 2
Mojo @ Mojo village
River Length =42.526 km
Slope = 0.96
Catchments area=2175 km 2
Akaki @ Akaki Village
River Length =44.799 km
Slope = 0.68
Catchments area=884.4 km2
Holota Nr Holota
River Length =14.970 km
Slope = 0.76
Catchments area=119 km 2

a
%

AWASHNr. BELLO

a AKAKI@ AKAKI
%

a
%
a
%

TEJINr. ASGOR

a
%

AWASH@ MELKA K
a MOJO@ MOJO Village
%

AWASH@ MELKA Hombole

a
%

Bergaa Nr Addis Alem

River Length =13.485 km

Slope = 1.17
Catchments area=248 km2

Figure (1): General Location Map of the Upper Awash Area in Ethiopia.
Lengths, slopes and drainage areas for the selected catchments
in the upper Awash River
.

Graph of Annual flow series

900

Berga, Addis Alem

Holeta
Awash, Bello

800

Teji, Asgori
Akaki
Awash, Melka Kunture
Awash, Hombole
Mojo river, Mojo Villeg

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Years

Figure (2) Plots of annual maximum discharges of stations in the Awash basin

Graph of Q/Qmean series

3.5

Berga, Addis Alem

Holeta
3

Awash, Bello
Teji, Asgori
Akaki

2.5

Awash, Melka Kunture

Awash, Hombole

Q/Qmean

Discharge [m3/s]

700

Mojo river, Mojo Villeg

1.5

0.5

0
1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Years

Figure (3) Plots of dimensionless value of annual maximum discharges

2005

Table (2) gives the statistical parameters of the available stream flow data. The two major
sources of error in flood quantile estimation by index flood procedures are the estimation of the
index flood (at-site MAF) and the estimation of standardized quantile. The error of standardized
quantile estimation may not be significant since the sub-basin is proved to be hydrologically
homogeneous. The accuracy of the estimation of the at-site mean flood value depends highly on
the sample size. In most of the cases the risk is associated with inadequate data or small sample
size. The availability of data is very vital for planning, development and management of the
finite resource "water" in the sub-basin context.
Table2. Statistical parameters of the available stream flow data
Parameters

Station name
of river
mean

CV

st.dev

skew

kurt

Berga@Addis
Alem
Holeta@Holeta
Awash@Bello

50.84

0.538

27.353

1.208

4.165

31.07
37.72

0.513
0.072

15.930
2.713

3.255
1.352

16.686
8.587

Tegj @Asgori

80.06

0.325

26.035

-.427

2.661

Akaki@Akaki

181.94

0.434

78.893

.518

5.035

Awash
@ Kunture
Awash
@Hombole

252.62

0.307

77.581

.625

2.681

438.27

0.348

152.676

.6682

2.877

Modjo@Modjo

120.836

0.575

69.426

1.507

6.114

SELECTION OF DISTRIBUTION AND PARAMETER ESTIMATION METHOD

A procedure to this context comprises three things. They are model type, distribution type and
method of parameter or quantile estimation.
Evaluation criteria can be divided into two categories as follows:

Criteria relating to ability of a selected model to describe or reproduce the

aspects of observed flood (descriptive ability) and

Criteria relating to procedure's statistical ability to achieve its assigned task, with
minimum bias and maximum efficiency and robustness (Predictive ability)

selected

Descriptive ability:
Annual Maximum flood series in general are positively skewed with observed average regional
skewness (CS) values to the range 0.5 to 3.0 and coefficient of variation (CV) values which vary
from 0.1 in tropical rainforest climate to around 1 to semi arid areas. In Ethiopia the CV values

range from 0.2 to 0.7 and Cs varies from 0.6 to 1.2. These observations taken together suggest
that annual maximum floods are from population with positively skewed distributions. Therefore
the most popular possible candidates for the annual maximum flood series are EV1, GEV,
Pearson Type III, Log -normal, Log-Pearson Type III and others.
Predictive ability:
The Study of predictive ability helps to exclude non-robust and inefficient models.
Flood frequency analysis:
After having the annual flood maximum series, distributions are applied to fit the empirical
points obtained by plotting position formulae. The most common distributions are used based on
the condition of fitting of the points. The distributions used in the case of the upper Awash
gauging sites data are as follows.
Extreme value type I
2 parameter Gamma distribution
2 parameter Log Normal distribution
3 parameter Log Normal distribution
Pearson type III
Parameter estimation methods :
Two parameter estimation methods are applied which commonly used for estimating the
parameter of the distributions. These are:
Method of maximum likelihood
Method of moments
Goodness of fit-tests:
By conducting the goodness of fit tests the best distribution is selected for each set of annual
maximum series of data.
The following methods are used depending on the data set and the length of record.
The Chi square test
The Deviation method this in turn is divided in to Mean relative deviation and Mean
square deviation
The Class Interval method
AT-SITE CALIBRATION OF FLOOD FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS
The extreme value theory for annual maxima has been applied to discriminate the distribution in
the upper tail where ? = 0 classified as the normal tail distribution, while ? > 0 the tail is
considered as heavy and the light tail is encountered when ? < 0 as explained in Willems
P.(1998). In most cases extreme situations are distinguished either normal or heavy tail as far as

hydrological application is commonly concerned. In order to evaluate the extreme value theory
the following has been used:
Exponential Q-Q plot with horizontal and vertical axes comprising of
i
(-ln (
) ; qi )
(4)
m +1
Pareto Q-Q plot
i
(-ln (
) ; ln(qi ) )
(5)
m +1
UH plot
i
(-ln (
) ; ln(UHi ) )
(6)
m +1
Based on the above plots the behavior of the tail can be described as normal or heavy or light tail
depending on the shape of the distribution. In the case of Awash sub-basin flood frequency
analysis distributions in upper tails are identified as normal and heavy ones. The tail of the
distribution can be identified by the plots of the above mentioned relationships taking in
consideration the following conditions.
DISTRIBUTION TAIL ANALYSIS
Normal tail
- Exponential Q-Q plot - upper tail points tend towards straight line
- Pareto Q-Q plot - upper tail points tend to bend downwards
- UH plot - the slope in the upper tail becomes towards the zero value.
Figure (4) shows the Q-Q plots of Akaki River at Akaki for normal tail condition, while Figure
(5) shows Comparison of EV1 and Etreme value distributions for Akaki River.
Heavy tail
- Exponential Q-Q plot - upper tail points tend towards straight line
- Pareto Q-Q plot - upper tail points tend to bend downwards
- UH plot - the slope in the upper tail becomes towards the zero value
Figure (5) Comparison of EV1 and Etreme value distributions for Akaki River. The Teji River
flood plain influence- Selection of distribution for the two segments as shown in Figure (6).

180

400

250
200

140

200

120
100

150

80
60

100

150

40

observations
extreme value distribution
optimal threshold

1
2
3
-ln(exceedance probability)

10

0.6
UH-plot

extreme value index

25

0.7
0.6

0.5

-0.2

0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1

-0.4

2
observations
extreme value distribution
optimal threshold

-0.6
-0.8

10

15 0
15

threshold rank

7
Pareto Q-Q Plot

6
ln(Discharge(m3/s))

ln( UH values )

0
20

extreme value index 0.9

MSE
0.8

0.2

1
2
3
-ln(exceedance probability)

15

1
Slope UH-Plot

0.4

50

threshold rank

MSE

15

slope

20

MSE

50

5
4
3
2
1

observations
extreme value distribution
optimal threshold

0
0

-ln(exceedance probability)

Figure (4) Q-Q plots of Akaki River at Akaki for normal tail condition

MSE

slope

Discharge(m3/s)

300

100

250

Slope Exp. Q-Q plot

160

Exp. Q-Q Plot

350

400
Comparison between EV-1 (ML, MOM, PWM)
and the Extreme Value Distributions
at Akaki Station - Ethiopia .

350

300

observations(Qm3/s)

250

200

150

100
EV1/Gumbel, MOM
EV1/Gumbel, PWM
50

EV1/Gumbel, ML
observations

extreme value distribution

optimal threshold

-50

0.5

1.5
2
-ln(exceedance probability)

2.5

3.5

Figure (5) Comparison of EV1 and Extreme value distributions for Akaki River.
Further the heavy tail situation is shown in the case of Teji River at Asgori as shown in Figure
(6). The flooding influence is observed as it is affected by the flood plain where water is
temporarily ponded and gradually released at later time ( Sonbol M.A, Willems P.) as shown in
Figure (7) for Teji River. In this case threshold should be marked and two distributions are fitted
to realistically represent the conditions. The regulation effect is highly pronounced in the case of
high flow period.
INDEX-FLOOD PROCEDURE
The index flood method basically takes the assumption that, floods from different catchments
within a region normalized by their mean annual flood come from a single distribution. The
important condition for this procedure is the standardization of the flood data from sites with
different flood magnitudes. The common practice is to get the dimensionless data by dividing the
values by an estimate of the at-site mean.
Qi
(2)
X T = Qmean
Then the quantile QT is estimated as
QT = (Qmean ) X T
(3)
Thus, the mean annual flood is the index flood. Parameters of the distribution of X are found
from the combined set of regional data. If at site data are not available, the index flood can be
estimated from regionally established empirical formula. The estimation of mean annual flood
from cathment characteristics is widely applicable in particular where our point of interest is
unguaged. An insight examination of the temporal and special variability of hydrological
elements is important in predicting variables based on the knowledge of regionally pooled data
base and relationships established with physical parameters. Some examples of such types are
shown below.

10

140

70

1000
Slope EXP Q-Q Plot

EXP. Q-Q Plot

900
120

60

100

50

700

500

30

60

400
300

20

40
observations

20

MSE

600

40

80

slope

observations

800

200
10

extreme value distribution

100
optimal threshold

slope
14

0
0

0.5

1.5
2
-ln(exceedance probability)

2.5

3.5

1.4

Pareto Q-Q Plot

Slope Pareto Q-Q Plot

10
threshold rank

0
15

20

0.35

extreme value index MSE

1.2

0.3

observations
extreme value distribution

0.25

0.8

0.2

0.6

0.15

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.05

MSE

ln(observations)

extreme value index

MSE

optimal threshold

1.5
2
-ln(exceedance probability)

2.5

3.5

15

10
threshold rank

15

249
Slope UH-Plot

-5
199
-10
149

-15

MSE

0.5

extreme value index

extreme value index

-20

MSE

99

-25
49
-30
23

-35

-1
0

10
threshold rank

15

20

Figure (6) Teji River at Asgori Q-Q plot for heavy tail condition.

11

0
20

300

250

observations

200

150

100
observations
extreme value distribution

50

optimal threshold
censored POT values
EV 1/Gumbel, MOM

0
0

0.5

1.5
2
-ln(exceedance probability)

2.5

3.5

Figure (7) Calibration result for the flood frequency distribution at Teji River for
the flooded and non-flooded events.
It is identified that the station on the Awash River near Bello is situated down-stream of flood
plain where flows spread in the plain rather than confined to the natural channel. This in turn
highly smoothened the peaks and low magnitudes of maximum flows were registered which did
not at all correspond to the drainage sizes as compared to the other stations situated in similar
climatic, physico-geographical condition and receiving more or less the same magnitude of
rainfall. The Akaki river catchment highly urbanized and partly regulated by old reservoirs
presumably reached their service life, which in reality has completely silted up. In this condition
higher values of peak could be anticipated, which do not represent the naturalized flow.
Regional Frequency Analysis
The use of regional information to estimate flood magnitudes at sites with little or no observed
data has become increasingly important since many projects which require design flood
information are located in areas where observed flood data are either missing or inadequate.
Regional analysis consist of analyzing the record of all gauged sites in a hydrologically
homogeneous region, in order to be able to use or transfer information contained in the record of
many sites to estimate quintiles at any individual gauged or ungauged catchments in the region.
Hosking and Wallis (1993) have discussed the various aspects of regional frequency analysis
such as identification of homogeneous regions and described the different steps of regional
analysis. In the present application, the discharge -return period (Q-T) relationships for all sites as
obtained from extreme value analysis were plotted together with the discharge being expressed
in dimensionless or standardized form (by dividing by the mean) and the results are shown in
Figure (8). It is clearly observed that the region is consedered homogeneous and this, as has been
mentioned before due to the same hydrological phenomena responsible for generating the flood
events over the region. Consequently, a regional frequency curve has been developed for the
region as shown in Figure (9).
Also Various relations have been developed based on multiple linear regression, between the
Mean Annual Flood ( MAF), and catchment area (A) and mean annual rainfall (MAR) as
shown in figures (10) and (11) respectively. It has been found that all catchment characteristics

12

give correlation to the MAF.A and MAR can be combined in one mathematical relationship for
the best fit of the line of correlation.
Plot of Q vs T
1400

Berga
1200

Holeta
Awash-Bello
Teji
Akaki

1000

Awash-M.Kunt.
Hombole
Mojo
Q,m3/s

800

600

400

200

0
1

10

100

1000

T,years

Figure (8) Flood magnitudes versus return periods

Plot of Regional curve

3.5
Berga, Addis Alem
Holeta
Teji, Asgori

Akaki
Awash, Melka Kunture

2.5

Awash, Hombole
Mojo river, Mojo at Village

Q/Qmean

Regional curve

river flood curve, Holeta

river flood curve, Teji
river flood curve, Awash Melka
Kunture
river flood curve, Awash
Hombole

1.5

0.5

0
1

10

100

Return period [yrs]

Figure (9) Regional flood curve

13

Graph of Mean Annual Flood vs Drainage Area

1000

y = 1 . 7 7 9 5 x 0.5907
R 2 = 0.9665

Power fit

MAF [m3/s]

Akaki
(Urban area)

100

Awash-Bello
(Flooded area)

10
100

1000

10000

Area [km2]

Figure (10) Mean annual floods as a function of drainage areas.

Mean Annual Flood vs (Area *MAR)
1000
0.6551

y = 0.0132x
2
R = 0.9801

Akaki
(Urban area)

MAF [m3/s]

100

Awash-Bello
(Flooded area)

10

1
100000.000

1000000.000

10000000.000

Area [km2] * MAR [mm]

Figure (11) Mean annual flood as a function of drainage area & mean annual rainfall

14

CONCLUSIOS
In the case of this particular regional analysis, catchments characteristics, mean annual flood and
annual rainfall are considered in order to establish regional relationship that can be applied to the
unguaged catchments of the sub-basin. Currently regional flood frequency curves are derived for
the Nile basin under the collaborative works of FRIEND/Nile project. This type of joint study
undertakings promotes cooperation among the Nile basin countries and the results obtained could
be applied for water resources management and planning.
The present outputs can be further examined in light of catchment land use, land cover and soil
type. In addition to this, stationarity test, statistical trend analysis and identification of cycles
could be considered for improving the analysis so far performed.
ACKNOWLEDMENTS
This paper was prepared based on the research activities of the FRIEND/Nile Project which is
funded by the Flemish Government of Belgium through the Flanders-UNESCO Science Trust
Fund cooperation and executed by UNESCO Cairo Office. The authors would like to express
their great appreciation to the Flemish Government of Belgium, the Flemish experts and
universities for their financial and technical support to the project. The authors are indebted to
UNESCO Cairo Office, the FRIEND/Nile Project management team, overall coordinator,
thematic coordinators, themes researchers and the implementing institutes in the Nile countries
for the successful execution and smooth implementation of the project. Thanks are also due to
UNESCO Offices in Nairobi, Dar Es Salaam and Addis Ababa for their efforts to facilitate the
implementation of the FRIEND/Nile activities.
REFERENCES
Hosking and Wallis (1993) , Estimation of the general extreme value distribution by the method
of probability weighted moments. Techno metrics, 27(3):251-261.
Sonbol M.A, Willems P. (2005) , "Flood frequency analysis of the Eastern Nile rivers"
Willems P. (1998), 'Hydrological applications of extreme value analysis, In: Hydrology in a
changing environment, H. Wheater and C. Kirby (ed.), John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, vol. III,
15-25; (ISBN 0-471-98680-6).

15