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University of Leuven, Department of Applied Economics, Naamsestraat 69, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium
University of Amsterdam, Department of Quantitative Economics, Roetersstraat 11, 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Tilburg University and CentER, Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, P.O. Box 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands
article
info
Article history:
Received November 2007
Received in revised form
July 2010
Accepted 20 July 2010
JEL classification:
D81
G10
G20
MSC:
62P05
abstract
In this paper, we argue that a distinction exists between risk measures and decision principles. Though
both are functionals assigning a real number to a random variable, we think there is a hierarchy between
the two concepts. Risk measures operate on the first level, quantifying the risk in the situation under
consideration, while decision principles operate on the second level, often being derived from the
risk measure. We illustrate this distinction with several canonical examples of economic situations
encountered in insurance and finance.
Special attention is paid to the role of axiomatic characterizations in determining risk measures and
decision principles. Some new axiomatic characterizations of families of risk measures and decision
principles are also presented.
2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Risk measurement
Decision-making
Axiomatization
Measure of risk
Premium principles
Solvency capital principles
Risk transfer principles
Equivalent utility
Esscher transform
Exponential utility
1. Introduction
We distinguish between risk measures on the one hand and
decision principles, such as premium principles, solvency capital
principles and risk transfer principles, on the other. The difference
between risk measures and decision principles comes from the
different levels on which they operate; that is, there is a
hierarchy between the two concepts.
A risk measure is a functional that assigns a real number
to a random variable (the risk). Justifications of risk measures
are generally based on axiomatic characterizations. The general
purpose of an axiomatic characterization is to demonstrate what
are the essential assumptions to be imposed and what are relevant
concepts (functions, parameters, et cetera) to be determined. A risk
Corresponding author. Tel.: +31 13 466 2430; fax: +31 13 466 3280.
E-mail address: R.J.A.Laeven@uvt.nl (R.J.A. Laeven).
0167-6687/$ see front matter 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.insmatheco.2010.07.004
295
[cX ] = c
1
c
c X
log E e
= c c [X ].
296
2. Premium principles
A prime example of a decision principle in an insurance context
is an insurance premium principle. When deriving a premium
principle, two viewpoints can be taken, the one of the insurer and
the one of the insured.
From the viewpoint of the insurer, a premium principle can for
example be derived such that the probability of ruin is sufficiently
small (see for example Gerber (1974) and Bhlmann (1985), or
Kaas et al. (2008), Section 5.2, for further details in this direction).
Another well-known approach, following the axiomatization of
Von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944), is to specify a nondecreasing function u : R R, referred to as a utility function,
and consider the expected utility E[u(w + [X ] X )], where w
denotes the initial wealth of the insurer, X is the loss incurred
due to the insured risk during the period considered and
denotes the premium principle. In the Von NeumannMorgenstern
framework, the utility function u is subjective, whereas the
probability measure is assumed to be objective, that is, known
and given beforehand. In the more general framework of Savages
(1954) axiomatization, which we adopt here, also the probability
measure can be subjective: in the latter framework, the probability
measure, just like the utility function u, may be based on subjective
judgements of the decision situation under consideration.
From the expected utility expression based on Savages
numerical representation, an equivalent utility principle (also
known under the slight misnomer zero utility principle) can be
established as follows (see for example Bowers et al. (1997, pp.
910), Denuit et al. (2006); Laeven and Goovaerts (2008)): for a
given r.v. X and a given real number w representing the wealth
of the company without the new contract, the equivalent utility
premium [X ] of the insurer is derived by solving the equation
E [u(w + [X ] X )] = u(w),
(1)
[Xj ] =
log E exp( Xj ) ,
(2)
ditional Tail Expectation E X | X > VaRp [X ] . A useful interpretation is that the TVaR is in fact the area between the curves
y = max{p, FX (x)} and y = 1. See Kaas et al. (2008, Sec. 5.6 as well
as Fig 5.1), for more details.
If X N (, 2 ), then
FX1 (p) = + 1 (p),
TVaRp [X ] = +
and
(p))
1p
with and the pdf and cdf of a standard normal r.v., respectively.
We argue that the optimal amount of economic capital should
be derived in a tradeoff between risk exposure on the one hand
and the cost of economic capital on the other hand. A quite
similar tradeoff is encountered in mathematical statistics, where
hypothesis testing is not a problem with one criterion but a
problem in which the probabilities of two possible errors are to
be weighed: the so-called type I error of rejecting a true null
hypothesis and the type II error of failing to reject a false null
hypothesis.
Let denote an economic capital principle. Trivially,
X min(X , [X ]) + (X [X ])+ .
In the insurance and financial industry, the lower layer
min(X , [X ]) can be regarded as the risk borne by the shareholders. When X 0 (hopefully the usual case), a profit is made (and
typically a dividend is paid out). When X > 0, the shareholders experience a loss. Because the loss experienced by the shareholders
will not exceed the total amount of solvency capital invested, the
loss is capped at [X ]. The risk min(X , [X ]) will be evaluated by
the shareholders and an opportunity cost of capital will be charged.
On the one hand, the larger the solvency capital to be committed
by the shareholders, the larger the costs associated with it. On the
other hand, the smaller the amount of solvency capital, the smaller
the premium the insured, still being exposed to the residual risk
(X [X ])+ , is willing to pay.
Let 0 < 1 denote the opportunity cost per unit of capital
(in excess of the risk-free rate of interest) and let : X R be
a valuation principle for the risk residual ( can for example be
obtained from an equivalent utility principle). Then we consider
[X ] + [(X [X ])+ ] .
(3)
[X ] = FX1 (1 ).
It means that the optimal solvency capital principle is a Value-atRisk at probability level 1 . Furthermore, at the optimum, the
297
[X ] + E [(X [X ])+ ]
= FX1 (1 ) + E X FX1 (1 ) +
= TVaR1 [X ].
The final equality used follows, for example, from (5.42) in Kaas
et al. (2008).
We note that, with constant , the objective function (3) always
gives rise to a translation invariant solvency capital principle.
Furthermore, with constant , the solvency capital principle is
positively homogeneous whenever is positively homogeneous.
In reality, when the size of the risk increases substantially, the
assumption of constant needs to be revisited due to a required
liquidity premium.
4. Risk transfer principles
4.1. Optimal risk sharing
A cooperating pool with n participating insurance companies
wants to insure a risk X . We assume that participant i has an
exponential(i ) utility function. The claim amount this participant
has to pay is denoted by Xi , hence X X1 + + Xn . To compete
optimally, the pool seeks to find the claim distribution (allocation)
(X1 , . . . , Xn ) for which the total premium income needed to keep
each participants utility at the same level is minimal. That is, the
pool looks for
inf
[X ] =
[X ] where
1
log E ei Xi .
i
i=1
(4)
298
problem:
inf X (X d)+ + [X ; d] .
for all .
299
E [Y ]
Y (h) =
Lemma 6.1. The functional satisfies the set of axioms A1A4 if and
only if there exists some non-decreasing function G : [a, b] [0, 1]
such that
(a,b)
X (h)dG(h)
+ (1 G(b))X (b).
In Goovaerts et al. (2004b) it is demonstrated that a true
equivalence statement formally requires an extension of the class
of functions for which axioms A1A4 should hold; see Goovaerts
et al. (2004b) for details.
6.1. An example
As an example, we provide a new axiomatic characterization of
the family of spectral risk measures. We state the following set of
axioms that a risk measure must satisfy:
B1.
B2.
B3.
B4.
[X ] = G(0)E[X ] +
(0,1)
TVaRh [X ] dG(h)
+ (1 G(1))ess.sup[X ].
Proof. The proof of this corollary follows from Lemma 6.1 by
defining [X ] := [X (H0 )] and taking X (h) = TVaRh [X ].
(5)
3 =
1 1 + 2 2
,
1 + 2
1 1
2 2
m1 (h/1 ) +
m2 (h/2 ).
1 1 + 2 2
1 1 + 2 2
Z /3 = I
X /1 + (1 I )
Y /2 ,
where I is Bernoulli
1 1
1 1 +2 2
, independent of
X and
Y.
300
1
h
1 [m1 (h/1 ) 1] +
2
h
2 [m2 (h/2 ) 1]
[X ] = G(0)E[X ] +
(0,)
X (h) dG(h)
+ (1 G())ess.sup[X ].
(6)
Var[Z ]
E[Z ]
Var[X ]
E [X ]
Var[Y ]
E[Y ]
Cov[X , Y ] =
E [Y ]
E[X ]
Var[X ] +
E[X ]
E[Y ]
]
Var[Y ] ,
so
for the correlation of (X , Y ) we have, writing v[U ]
Var[U ]/E[U ] for the coefficient of variation of r.v. U:
X +Y
E[X + Y ]
X
E[Y ]
Y
E[X ]
+
= E[X + Y ] log E exp h
E[X + Y ] E[X ]
E[X + Y ] E[Y ]
]
E[X ]
X
E [X + Y ]
log E exp h
E [X + Y ]
E[X ]
[
]
E[Y ]
Y
+
log E exp h
E[X + Y ]
E [Y ]
[
]
X
= E[X ] log E exp h
E[X ]
[
]
Y
+ E[Y ] log E exp h
.
E [Y ]
[
1/i :=
E[Xi ]/h
i =1
i=1
= E[X ]/h
=: 1/,
while in Section 4.1 this need not in general be the case.
Remark 6.5. For small values of h, by Taylors expansion, the
loading contained in the premium
(5) can be interpreted in terms
of the coefficient of variation Var[Y ]/E[Y ] as follows:
Y (h) =
E[Y ]
h
E[Y ]
Y (h/E[Y ])
h
E[Y ]
h
1
h2
=
E [Y ] +
Var
[
Y
]
+
h
E [Y ]
2 (E[Y ])2
=
1 Var[Y ]
E[Y ] 1 + h
,
2 (E[Y ])2
=
7. Incomplete information
+ sup
F Gu(m)
(x )+ dF (x)
x dF (x) = c ,
a
dF (x) = 1 ,
a
1
2
(a + m)
(b )2
+ .
(b m)(b a)
(7)
= b
(b m)(b a)
.
2c (a + m)
8. Conclusion
It is generally agreed that no model is a true representation of
reality. A model can only be viewed as an image of reality. The same
holds for risk measures. In the financial and actuarial approach
of this topic, no explicit distinction is made between measuring
risk, insurance risk capital allocation problems, solvency capital
principles and economic aspects in price setting for different
actors. Different actors, and researchers, have different thoughts
about what an appropriate system of axioms for risk measuring
should be. In this paper we tried to explain the hierarchical
relation between a risk measure, a decision principle and an
uncertainty measure induced by incomplete information on the
set of admissible distributions. All of them can be regarded as
functionals assigning a real number to a random variable. Risk
measures operate on the first level, decision principles operate on
the second level, for example, by optimization of the total cost of an
economic transaction between two or more actors in the economic
reality.
Acknowledgements
We are grateful to Hans Gerber, two anonymous referees
and many seminar and conference participants for their valuable
comments and suggestions. Marc Goovaerts acknowledges the financial support of the GOA/07 Grant and the Fortis Chair in Financial and Actuarial Risk Management. Roger Laeven acknowledges
the financial support of the Netherlands Organization for Scientific
Research (NWO Grant No. 42511013, NWO VENI Grant 2006 and
NWO VIDI Grant 2009). This research was initiated while Roger
Laeven was at the University of Amsterdam.
301
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