Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Initiating Coverage
Computer Modelling Group Initiating Coverage at Outperform M. Mazar
Pason Systems Initiating Coverage at Market Perform M. Mazar
Rating Changes
Upgrading to Outperform and Raising Target Price; Mines Delivering With A. Breichmanas
Golden Star Resources
Potential Catalysts Ahead
SouthGobi Energy M. Bandy
Upgrading to Outperform (Speculative)
Resources
Industry/Macro Comments
Apparel Retail MALL TALK: March Field Team Finds J. Morris
Energy - Royalty Trusts Weekly Royalty Trust Report – Week Ending March 19, 2010 G. Tait
Quantitative Analysis Relative Strength Filter — Euro Breakdown M. Steele
Quantitative Analysis Market Elements M. Steele
Economic Research A.M. Notes Economics
Disclosure Statements
To view important Disclosure Statements go to http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/Company_Disclosure_Public.asp
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
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Redback Mining (RBI) Company presentation in Europe. Rick Clark (CEO) and Simon Jackson (VP, Corporate Development).
Atul Shah
(Diversified Financials Analyst) Marketing in Vancouver & Alberta
Company presentation in Montreal. Paul McElligott (President & CEO) and Bev Park (Executive VP &
TimberWest Forest (TWF.UN) CFO; President & COO – Couverdon Real Estate).
John Morris
(Apparel Retail Analyst) Marketing in San Francisco
Ambrish Srivastava
(Semiconductor Analyst) Marketing in New York
Dave Shove
(Managed Care and Pharmacy Benefit Marketing in Kansas City, Dallas & Austin
Managers Analyst)
Edwin Chee
(Chemicals & Fertilizers Analyst) Marketing on the West Coast
Cedar Shopping Centers (CDR) Company presentation in New York. Leo Ullman (CEO & President) and Larry Kreider (CFO).
Bert Hazlett
(Pharmaceuticals Analyst) Marketing in Boston
Ken Zaslow
(Food & Agribusiness Analyst) Marketing San Francisco & Los Angeles
Mike Mazar
(Oil & Gas Services Analyst) Marketing in Kansas City
BMO Capital Markets Calendar of Events
Economics/Industry Data
Time Data Period BMO Capital Previous Consensus
Markets Estimate Period
10:00 am U.S. New Home Sales Feb. (e) 309,000 a.r. (unch) 309,000 a.r. (-11.2%) 315,000 a.r. (+1.9%)
Dave Shove
(Managed Care and Pharmacy Benefit Marketing in Kansas City, Dallas & Austin Mar. 23-25
Managers Analyst)
Edwin Chee
(Chemicals & Fertilizers Analyst) Marketing on the West Coast Mar. 23-25
Ken Zaslow
(Food & Agribusiness Analyst) Marketing San Francisco & Los Angeles Mar. 24-25
Mike Mazar
(Oil & Gas Services Analyst) Marketing in Kansas City Mar. 24-25
John Reucassel
(Financials Analyst) Marketing in New York Mar. 25
Company presentation in New York. Dean Freeman (Sr. VP Finance & Treasurer), Kyle
Flowserve (FLS) Ahlfinger (VP, Chief Marketing Officer) and Paul Fehlman (VP, Financial Planning & Mar. 25
Analysis and IR).
Marvell Technology (MRVL) Company presentation in Toronto & Montreal. Jeff Palmer (VP of Investor Relations). Mar. 25-26
Peyto Energy Trust (PEY.UN) Company presentation in Toronto. Darren Gee (President & CEO). Mar. 25-26
Dan Salmon
(Marketing Services & Advertising Marketing in Kansas City & Dallas Mar. 25-26
Agencies Analyst)
Bert Powell
(Special Situations Analyst) Marketing in Vancouver & Alberta Mar. 25-26
Christopher Brown
(Oil & Gas International Producers Marketing in Europe Mar. 25-26
Analyst)
Peter Sklar
(Auto Parts/Food & Drug Retailing Marketing in Vancouver Mar. 26
Analyst)
Joanne Wuensch
(Medical Technology & Devices Marketing Florida Mar. 26
Research Analyst)
Company presentation in Montreal. Linda Hasenfratz (CEO) and Mark Stoddart (Chief
Linamar (LNR) Technology Officer & Executive VP, Marketing).
Mar. 26
Carl Kirst
(North American Pipeline Analyst) Marketing in Montreal Mar. 29
Company presentation in Boston. Jackie Fouse (CFO) and Mark Haden (Director of
Bunge (BG) Investor Relations).
Mar. 29
Alan Laws
(Oil Services Analyst) Marketing in Atlanta Mar. 29
Tim Long
(Communications Equipment Analyst) Marketing in the Mid-Atlantic Mar. 29
Company presentation in New York & Boston. Bob McFarlane (EVP & CFO) and
TELUS (T) Robert Mitchell (Investor Relations).
Mar. 29
Company presentation in Los Angeles & San Francisco. Mike McAllister (VP, Canadian
EnCana (ECA) Deep Basin (Montney & Bighorn)), Todd Brown (Team Lead, Texana (Haynesville)) and Mar. 29-31
Ryder McRitchie (VP, Investor Relations).
Company presentation in Montreal. Bob McFarlane (EVP & CFO) and Robert Mitchell
TELUS (T) (Investor Relations).
Mar. 30
Bert Hazlett
(Pharmaceuticals Analyst) Marketing in Boston Mar. 30
Karen Short
(Food Retailing Analyst) Marketing in Chicago Mar. 30
Company presentation in Chicago. Armin Martens (President & CEO) and Jim Green
Artis REIT (AX.UN) (CFO).
Mar. 31
Mike Vinciquerra
(Exchanges & Discount Brokers Marketing in Boston Mar. 31
Analyst)
Dan Salmon
(Marketing Services & Advertising Marketing in Chicago Mar. 31-Apr. 1
Agencies Analyst)
Karine MacIndoe
(Real Estate & REITs Analyst) Marketing in the Mid-Atlantic region Apr. 1
Dan Salmon
(Marketing Services & Advertising Marketing in the Pacific Northwest Apr. 5
Agencies Analyst)
Wayne Hood
(Broadline Retailing Analyst) Marketing in New York Apr. 5-6
Andrew Kaip
(Precious Metals & Mining Analyst) Marketing in Boston & New York Apr. 5-7
Company presentation in Toronto. Bob Bell (President & CEO) and Candace
INV Metals (INV) MacGibbon (CFO).
Apr. 6
Gordon Tait
(Royalty & Income Trusts Analyst) Marketing in Vancouver Apr. 6
Meredith Bandy
(Coal Analyst) Marketing in Boston Apr. 6
Connie Maneaty
(Personal Care & Household Products Marketing in Richmond & Atlanta Apr. 6
Analyst)
Company presentation in Boston & New York. Scott Perry (CFO) and Anne Day
Gammon Gold (GAM) (Director, IR).
Apr. 6-9
Joanne Wuensch
(Medical Technology & Devices Marketing in the Mid-West Apr. 7
Research Analyst)
Karine MacIndoe
(Real Estate & REITs Analyst) Marketing in Vancouver Apr. 7
Claude Proulx
(Airlines & Special Situations Analyst) Marketing in Toronto Apr. 7-8
Company presentation in Winnipeg & Vancouver. Tom Schwartz (President & CEO)
Cap REIT (CAR.UN) and Richard Smith (CFO).
Apr. 7-8
Christopher Brown
(Oil & Gas International Producers Marketing in Winnipeg Apr. 8
Analyst)
Alan Laws
(Oil Services Analyst) Marketing in New York & Connecticut Apr. 8-9
Christopher Brown
(Oil & Gas International Producers Marketing in Toronto Apr. 9
Analyst)
Carl Kirst
(North American Pipeline Analyst) Marketing in Boston Apr. 12
Wayne Hood
(Broadline Retailing Analyst) Marketing in Europe Apr. 12-14
Company presentation in Texas, L.A. & San Francisco. Scott Perry (CFO) and Anne
Gammon Gold (GAM) Day (Director, IR).
Apr. 12-14
Company presentation in Europe. Kevin Crutchfield (CEO), Frank Wood (CFO) and
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) Allen Todd (VP, IR).
Apr. 12-15
Company presentation in Europe. Kevin Crutchfield (CEO), Frank Wood (CFO) and
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) Allen Todd (VP, Investor Relations).
Apr. 12-16
Randy Ollenberger
(Oil & Gas Producers & Integrated Oils Marketing in Toronto Apr. 13-15
Analyst)
Gordon Tait
(Royalty & Income Trusts Analyst) Marketing in Montreal Apr. 14
Company presentation in the Mid-Atlantic. Don Mulligan (CFO) and Kristen S. Wenker
General Mills (GIS) (VP, Investor Relations).
Apr. 14
Carl Kirst
(North American Pipeline Analyst) Marketing in the Mid-West Apr. 14-15
Jim Byrne
(Integrated Oils & Refiners Analyst) Marketing in Vancouver Apr. 15
Jeffrey Logsdon
(Entertainment & Gaming Analyst) Marketing in Boston Apr. 15-16
Gammon Gold (GAM) Company presentation in Toronto. Scott Perry (CFO) and Anne Day (Director, IR). Apr. 16
Randy Ollenberger
(Oil & Gas Producers & Integrated Oils Marketing in Montreal Apr. 16
Analyst)
Gordon Tait
(Royalty & Income Trusts Analyst) Marketing in Toronto Apr. 20-21
Company presentation in Europe. John A. McCluskey (President and CEO) and Jeremy
Alamos Gold (AGI) Link (Investor Relations Manager).
Apr. 21
John Morris
(Apparel Retail Analyst) Marketing in the Pacific Northwest Apr. 21
If you are interested in any of the above events, please contact your BMO Capital Markets Institutional Equity/Fixed Income salesperson, or the following:
Toronto Events: Laura Heuff 416-359-5816
Montreal Events: Marjorie Heppell at 514-286-7231
Western Canada Events: Jennifer Crombie 604-443-1452
U.S. Events: Angela Dong 212-702-1969
Europe Events: Hannah Pead 44-207-246- 5418
Group
(CMG-TSX) Michael Mazar, CFA
(403) 515-1538
Stock Rating: Outperform Michael.Mazar@bmo.com
Jason A. Zhang
Industry Rating: Market Perform
15 15
The Company
CMG is the world leader in developing and supplying dynamic reservoir 10 10
500 500
Forecasts
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
We expect CMG to generate EPS of $0.90 in fiscal 2011 (the company has a
Last Data Point: March 19, 2010
March 31 year-end) and $1.00 in fiscal 2012, up from $0.81 in fiscal 2010.
(FY-Mar.) 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E
Revenues are expected to grow from $45.7 million in 2010 to $50.3 million in EPS $0.95 $0.81 $0.90 $1.00
P/E 20.7x 18.8x 16.9x
2011 and $55.6 million in 2011. Our estimates assume essentially a 100%
renewal rate for existing annuity/maintenance licences. CFPS $1.05 $0.92 $0.95 $1.06
P/CFPS 18.2x 17.7x 15.8x
CMG should trade at a premium to the group in light of its steady cash flows, Dividend $0.72 Yield 4.3%
Book Value $1.54 Price/Book 10.9x
high free cash flow yield, industry leading EVA and ROE performance, Shares O/S (mm) 17.7 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $297
dominant market position and exceptionally strong balance sheet. Our $21 Float O/S (mm) 13.3 Float Cap ($mm) $223
Wkly Vol (000s) 129 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $1.9
target price is based on a P/E of 23.4x 2011E EPS and 21.1x 2012E EPS. Net Debt ($mm) -$28.9 Next Rep. Date May (E)
Notes: All values in C$
Major Shareholders: Foundation CMG (12.8% Non Voting),
Recommendation Directors and Officers (12.6%)
First Call Mean Estimates: COMPUTER MODELLING GROUP LTD
We are initiating coverage of Computer Modelling Group with an Outperform (C$) 2010E: $0.76; 2011E: $0.95
rating and a $21 target price.
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 13 to 15.
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rental basis, that enables data acquisition of reservoirs and the drilling process to 0.4
0.2
enhance efficiency, safety and economics. Pason does this by offering a suite of 10
-0.0
products that are added to a land-based drilling or workover rig with a
5 -0.2
communications link so that data can be stored and analyzed both at the well- Volume (mln)
10 10
site and at offsite locations. Pason has been in business since 1978 and has been 5 5
publicly traded on the TSX since 1996. 0 0
PSI Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
200 200
expected to be $227.1 million in 2010 and $288.5 million in 2011. We expect (FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
improving operating margin performance in 2010 with margins of just over 51% EPS $0.75 -$0.07 $0.26 $0.66
P/E 44.7x 17.5x
versus 50% in 2009, but still well below the 64% achieved in 2008.
CFPS $1.52 $0.51 $0.91 $1.27
P/CFPS 12.7x 9.2x
Valuation
Total Debt ($mm) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Pason’s shares currently trade at 10.0x 2010E EBITDA and 6.6x 2011E ROCE (%) 42% -3% 13% 32%
LT Liab. (%) -75% -64% -85% -131%
EBITDA. This is a modest premium to the company’s small- to mid-cap EV/EBITDA 7.2x 20.2x 10.0x 6.6x
Canadian energy services peer group average. While we believe a modest Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008A $0.26 $0.08 $0.26 $0.15
premium is warranted in light of the company’s dominant competitive position, 2009A $0.06 -$0.11 -$0.05 $0.03
track record for growth, high level of exposure to the secular trend toward more 2010E $0.12 -$0.06 $0.07 $0.12
complex drilling programs and its strong balance sheet, we believe the current Dividend $0.28 Yield 2.4%
Book Value $3.79 Price/Book 3.1x
valuation is discounting a stronger drilling environment in 2011 than is likely Shares O/S (mm) 81.5 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $945
given continued challenging natural gas price fundamentals. Our $13 target Float O/S (mm) 46.3 Float Cap ($mm) $537
Wkly Vol (000s) 526 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $5.6
price is based on 7.6x 2011E EBITDA. Net Debt ($mm) -$119.9 Next Rep. Date May (E)
Notes: All values in C$
Major Shareholders: James Hill (President and CEO) (20.0%),
Recommendation Royce & Associates (12.9%), Caisse De Depot (10.3%)
First Call Mean Estimates: PASON SYSTEMS INC (C$) 2010E:
We are initiating coverage of Pason with a Market Perform rating and $13 target $0.34; 2011E: $0.70
price.
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 10 to 12.
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Upgrading to Outperform and Raising Target Price; Price (23-Mar) $3.79 52-Week High $4.39
Target Price $5.00 52-Week Low $1.17
Mines Delivering With Potential Catalysts Ahead
Golden Star Resources (GSS)
Price: High,Low,Close(US$) Earnings/Share(US$)
0.05
5
Event 4
-0.00
-0.05
Following a review of estimates, BMO Research is upgrading Golden Star 3
-0.10
1 -0.20
Impact 0 -0.25
Volume (mln)
Positive. The company has recently focused on demonstrating consistent 200 200
100 100
performance from its two mines, delivered solid operational results in 2009 and
0 0
appears poised to generate significant cash this year as it begins to focus on its GSS Relative to S&P 500
200 200
next phase of growth. Cash flow from operations was US$123M in 2009 and the
100 100
mines generated free cash flow of US$55M. Cash at year-end was US$154M,
allowing the company to double its exploration budget for 2010 to US$18M. 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
could add approximately US$0.25 per share to NPV estimates and increase Real'd Price ($/oz) $870 $978 $1,150 $1,150
Prod'n (000 oz.) 295.9 409.9 400.0 477.9
annual production by roughly 40,000oz. Ttl. Cash Cost ($/oz) $743 $595 $657 $632
Ttl. Prod. Cost $954 $899 $971 $934
Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Valuation 2008A -$0.02 -$0.03 -$0.10 -$0.03
2009A -$0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.03
The US$5 target price is based on a blend of 1.3x the BMO Research 10% 2010E $0.05 $0.04 $0.04 $0.03
NPVPS estimate at spot prices and 10x the 2010 CFPS forecast.
Dividend $0.00 Yield 0.0%
Book Value $2.02 Price/Book 1.9x
Shares O/S (mm) 257.4 Mkt. Cap (US$mm) $976
Recommendation Float O/S (mm) 256.2 Float Cap (US$mm) $971
Wkly Vol (000s) 21,572 Wkly $ Vol (USmm) $63.5
Golden Star is rated Outperform. The company offers attractive relative value Net Debt ($mm) -$29.5 Next Rep. Date May (E)
with possible catalysts for re-rating through permitting of Prestea South, Notes: All values in US$
Major Shareholders: Sentry Select Capital (16.5%), Van Eck
progress at Prestea Underground, and results from newly expanded drill Associates (5.30%)
programs. First Call Mean Estimates: GOLDEN STAR RESOURCES LTD.
(US$) 2010E: $0.23; 2011E: $0.35
Changes Target
$4.00 to $5.00
Rating
Mkt to OP
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 8 to 11.
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Resources
(SGQ-TSX) Meredith Bandy, CFA
(303) 436-1113
Stock Rating: Outperform(S) Meredith.Bandy@bmo.com
Industry Rating: Market Perform
Event 20
-0.35
the Hong Kong listing (priced January 22); SouthGobi shares ran up to over 5
-0.45
C$20, but have since been range-bound around C$16–17/share. BMO is also 0 -0.50
2 2
Impact 0
SGQ Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
0
2000 2000
Positive.
1000 1000
Forecasts 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
but also incorporates the company’s guidance on higher realized coal pricing. CFPS -$0.01 -$0.10 $0.17 $0.56
The net effect is a decrease in 2010–12 earnings, but a slightly higher NPV. P/CFPS 92.2x 28.0x
This report was prepared in part by an analyst(s) employed by a Canadian affiliate, BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a
research analyst(s) under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 5 to 7.
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Services
Toronto, Ontario
(JBHT-NASDAQ)
Jason Granger, CA, CFA
Stock Rating: Market Perform (416) 359-4293
Industry Rating: Market Perform Jason.Granger@bmo.com
Event 40 1.5
35 1.4
Conditions among active vehicles in the Truckload segment have been 30 1.3
tightening. 25 1.2
20 1.1
Impact 15 1.0
Volume (mln)
Positive. 100 100
50 50
Forecasts 0
JBHT Relative to S&P 500
0
200 200
We are not making any changes to our 2010 forecast; however, we are
100 100
increasing our 2011 EPS estimate to $1.89 from $1.72.
0 0
Valuation
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Last Data Point: March 22, 2010
We are increasing our target price to $38 from $32 to reflect the increase to our (FY-Dec.) 2008 A 2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS $1.56 $1.10 $1.41 $1.89
2011 earnings estimate and some multiple expansion, with improvements in P/E 25.9x 19.3x
industry conditions. Our target is based on 20.2x our 2011 EPS forecast and
CFPS $3.48 $2.64 $2.98 $3.41
8.6x our 2011 EBITDA estimate. P/CFPS 12.3x 10.7x
some regions and we expect this trend to become more widespread in H2/10, Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008A $0.28 $0.39 $0.47 $0.41
driven by continued supply contraction (with an acceleration in bankruptcies) 2009A $0.24 $0.23 $0.31 $0.32
2010E $0.25 $0.31 $0.42 $0.43
and firming in demand. Improvements in industry conditions should have a
more meaningful impact on pricing in 2011, which should bode well for JB Dividend $0.48 Yield 1.3%
Book Value $5.06 Price/Book 7.2x
Hunt’s intermodal, Dedicated Carriage and Truckload business lines. Shares O/S (mm) 127.2 Mkt . Cap (US$mm) $4,648
Float O/S (mm) 89.4 Float Cap (US$mm) $3,265
Approximately 88% of 2009 revenues were generated from intermodal, DCS Wkly Vol (000s) 9,916 Wkly $ Vol (USmm) $300.7
and freight brokerage. These services have more defensible characteristics and Net Debt ($mm) $557.2 Next Rep. Date April (E)
higher barriers to entry than typical truckload. The company’s strong presence
in intermodal and the nature and location of its network position it well to
continue to capitalize on some unique opportunities. Notwithstanding these
factors, we currently do not see enough upside in valuation to warrant an
Outperform rating on the stock. Low rates have already been locked in by many
shippers for 2010. JB Hunt is rated Market Perform.
Changes Annual EPS Annual CFPS Target
2011E $1.72 to $1.89 2011E $3.24 to $3.41 $32.00 to $38.00
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 3 to 5.
Back to Index
35 35
We recently met with Peyto management to get an update on their drilling
30 30
results and future drilling inventory.
25 25
20 20
Impact 15 15
10 10
Slightly Positive.
5 5
Volume (mln)
20 20
Forecasts 10 10
Our per unit operating cash flow estimates (CFPU) increase to $1.90 from $1.60 0 0
PEY.UN Relative to S&P/TSX Comp TRI
200 200
in 2010 and to $2.12 from $1.92 in 2011. We are increasing our 2010 cash
distribution per unit (CDPU) estimate to $1.44 from $1.08. Our 2011, CDPU 100 100
has historically demonstrated relatively high capital efficiency. While Peyto is Quarterly CDPU Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008A $0.42 $0.44 $0.45 $0.45
relatively new to horizontal drilling (13 wells spud to date) initial results have 2009A $0.39 $0.36 $0.36 $0.36
2010E $0.36 $0.36 $0.36 $0.36
been encouraging. The advent of horizontal drilling with multi-stage fracs has
the potential to add significant production and reserves at relatively attractive Annual Dist. $1.44 Yield 10.8%
Book Value $5.33 Price/Book 2.5x
metrics. We believe Peyto is a good bet for investors that are moderately bullish Units O/S (mm) 114.9 Mkt . Cap ($mm) $1,531
Float O/S (mm) 104.8 Float Cap ($mm) $1,396
on the outlook for natural gas. However, BMO Capital Markets does not share a Wkly Vol (000s) 2,046 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $22.6
Net Debt ($mm) $435.0 Next Rep. Date May (E)
particularly bullish view on North American natural gas prices. Consequently,
Notes: All values in C$; Net debt and Units O/S at Q4/09
we believe that the unit/share price of a natural gas producer such as Peyto may Major Unitholders: 9% held by management and directors
be range-bound until the outlook for natural gas prices improves. Based on our First Call Mean Estimates: Not Available
total return outlook, we continue to rate Peyto Energy Trust Market Perform.
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 9 to 12.
Back to Index
Event 25 2.0
20
Genivar reported Q4/09 net revenues of $108.7 million, up 16.6% year over 1.5
15
year, versus our expectation of $108.2 million. Reported EBITDA was $21.0 1.0
10
million versus our expectation of $21.6 million, and was negatively affected by
5 0.5
a $1.4 million non-cash F/X loss. EPU were $0.48 versus our expectation of Volume (mln)
4 4
$0.53. Excluding the F/X loss, earnings were in line with expectations. 2 2
0 0
Impact 400
GNV.UN Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
400
0 0
Forecasts 2006 2007 2008 2009
Last Data Point: March 22, 2010
For 2010, we forecast net revenue of $471.8 million and EPU of $2.57. For (FY-Dec.) 2008 A 2009A 2010E 2011E
CDPU $1.70 $1.95 $1.50 $1.50
2011, we forecast net revenues of $561.3 million and EPU of $2.36. P/CDPU 18.4x 18.4x
DCPU
Valuation
$2.42 $2.56 $2.93 $2.93
P/DCPU 9.4x 9.4x
Our $31 target is based on 8.0x 2011E EV/EBITDA discounted back one year at Payout % 72% 79% 51% 51%
EV ($mm) $529 $621 $698 $723
15.0%. EBITDA ($mm) $69 $79 $99 $117
EV/EBITDA 7.7x 7.9x 7.1x 6.2x
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 7 to 9.
Back to Index
primarily reflecting lower operating costs. Average production of 4,728 boe/d 10 0.0
was in line with our forecast of 4,832 boe/d. The company exceeded 2009 exit -0.2
production guidance of 5,750 boe/d reflecting strong drilling results. Proved 5
-0.4
plus probable (2P) reserves in 2009 were 16.1 MMboe. Legacy completed a
0 -0.6
Q4/09 drilling program of 23 (18.0 net) wells with a 100% success rate 10
Volume (mln)
10
including 9.9 net Bakken horizontal wells in the Stoughton/Heward, Star Valley 5 5
and Taylorton areas. To date in Q1/10, Legacy has drilled 18 (14.2 net) wells. 0 0
LEG Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
The initial 2010 capital budget of $117 million was maintained consisting of 76 200 200
(58.7 net) wells targeting light oil. Based on this budget, Legacy expects to 100 100
achieve average production of 6,525 boe/d (97% oil) and exit production of
0 0
2006 2007 2008 2009
7,250 boe/d (26% growth from 2009 exit) in 2010.
Last Data Point: March 22, 2010
2011. Our financial estimates are based on production forecasts of 6,512 boe/d Quarterly CFPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008A $0.31 $0.45 $0.39 $0.24
in 2010 and 7,710 boe/d in 2011. 2009A $0.06 $0.12 $0.16 $0.27
2010E $0.31 $0.29 $0.34 $0.37
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 6 to 8.
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March 24, 2010
Theratechnologies Biotechnology
Jason Zhang, Ph.D.
(TH-TSX) BMO Capital Markets Corp.
212-885-4179
Stock Rating: Outperform(S) jason.zhang@bmo.com
Industry Rating: Market Perform
Alex Arfaei
212-885-4033
alex.arfaei@bmo.com
10
400
Impact 8
300
6
Investors are primarily focused on two upcoming events for TH shares: the 200
4
FDA advisory panel meeting on 5/27/10 followed by the PDUFA date of 100
2
7/27/10 for tesamorelin. We continue to believe that tesamorelin has a 0 0
Volume (mln)
compelling clinical profile and expect a positive outcome for both events 20 20
(please see our prior notes for our in-depth analysis of tesamorelin). 10 10
However, we pushed back our expected launch date for tesamorelin to 3Q10 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
from 2Q10. Moreover, we updated our portfolio valuation model, which is Last Dat a Point : March 22, 2010
Valuation/Financial Data
based on a modified discounted cash flow method.
(FY-Nov.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS GAAP -$0.85 -$0.25 $0.21 $0.11
Forecasts P/E
First Call Cons.
24.3x
-$0.05
46.5x
$0.24
We estimate tesamorelin can capture ~50% and ~40% of the severe FCF na $0.10 $0.03 -$0.05
P/FCF 170.3x nm
lipohypertrophy patients in the US (22K) and ex-US (10K), respectively. EBITDA ($mm) na -$12 $15 $9
With a slightly higher price than previous assumed, our tesamorelin peak EV/EBITDA 15.9x 26.5x
Rev. ($mm) na $20 $39 $36
sales estimate is $275 million in the US and $100 million in ex-US markets. EV/Rev 6.1x 6.6x
Quarterly EPS 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2009A -$0.18 -$0.09 $0.10 -$0.08
Valuation 2010E -$0.07A -$0.07 $0.37 -$0.02
We estimate the present value of tesamorelin’s profits to be ~$317 million, Balance Sheet Data (08/31/09)
Net Debt ($mm) -$70 TotalDebt/EBITDA nm
present value (risk adjusted) of the US milestones (higher probability than Total Debt ($mm) $0 EBITDA/IntExp na
Net Debt/Cap. nm Price/Book 6.5x
previous assumption), cash position to be $160 million, and total firm value Notes: All values in US$.
of $487 million or $8 per share. Source: BMO Capital Markets estimates, Bloomberg, FactSet, Global
Insight, Reuters, and Thomson Financial.
Recommendation
We maintain our OUTPERFORM(S) rating on TH shares.
Please refer to pages 6 to 8 for Important Disclosures, including the Analyst's Certification.
Back to Index
Event 10
1.0
8
Release of Q4/09 results.
6 0.9
4
Impact 2
0.8
Neutral. Coast’s Q4/09 results were generally in line with our forecasts, with 0 0.7
Volume (mln)
slightly lower-than-expected revenue offset by lower costs, resulting in 2 2
1 1
EBITDA of $2.6 million, compared to our forecast of $2.7 million.
0 0
CWA.UN Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
200 200
Forecasts
100 100
We have lowered our 2010 EBITDA forecast to $11.8 million from $11.9
million to reflect a challenging retail environment, expected Olympics-related 0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Last Data Point: March 22, 2010
softness in Q1/10, partially offset by improving contract sales in late 2010. Our
2011 EBITDA forecast remains $13.1 million. (FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
CDPU $1.17 $0.54 $0.50 $0.50
P/CDPU 10.1x 10.1x
Valuation CFPU $1.31 $1.73 $1.04 $1.17
P/CFPU 4.9x 4.3x
Our increased target price of $5.50 is based on a higher valuation multiple of
6.0x 2010E EV/EBITDA. This level of valuation represents a discount to the Rev. ($mm) $147 $144 $146 $152
EV ($mm) $84 $52 $65 $59
peer group, in line with Coast’s historic relative valuation. EBITDA ($mm) $13.9 $10.6 $11.8 $13.1
EV/EBITDA 6.0x 4.9x 5.5x 4.5x
Quarterly EPU Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Recommendation 2008A $0.19 $0.27 $0.33 $0.24
2009A $0.10 $0.18 $0.21 $0.16
We maintain our cautious outlook on Coast’s business through 2010, given 2010E $0.12 $0.21 $0.26 $0.21
cautious retail spending on appliances, price competition in the retail segment
Dividend $0.50 Yield 9.9%
and reduced contract sales to the builder segment. However, recent growth in Book Value $5.67 Price/Book 0.9x
Units O/S (mm) 10.0 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $51
housing starts and building permits authorized in Western Canada bode well for Float O/S (mm) 6.5 Float Cap ($mm) $33
Wkly Vol (000s) 27 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $0.1
the contract business over the longer-term, but these sales are not likely to be Net Debt ($mm) $19.6 Next Rep. Date May (E)
recognized for 12-18 months (late 2010, into 2011), upon project completion. Notes: All values in C$
Major Unitholders: CWAL Investments (35% of total units); The
Coast further reduced its debt levels in Q4/09 and has sufficient balance sheet Jerry Zucker revocable Trust (16.1% of Class A units); The Futura
flexibility to weather economic challenges and potentially maintain its Corporation (15.4% of Class A units)
First Call Mean Estimates: COAST WHOLESALE APPLIANCES
distribution post-SIFT tax, aided by a $45 million tax shield. Coast units are INC F (C$) 2009E: $0.70; 2010E: $0.89; 2011E: $0.97
rated Market Perform.
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 10 to 12.
Back to Index
Event
Price: High,Low,Close(US$) Earnings/Share(US$)
0.5
7
Management reiterated its prior FY2011 guidance for revenue of $100+ million 1 -1.5
Volume (mln)
and adjusted net income of $25 million for the combined entity. 4 4
2 2
Impact 0
DSGX Relative to S&P 500
0
400 400
Slightly positive. We had expected that the transaction would successfully close,
200 200
although the fact that it has, with no unforeseen delays, is incrementally
positive. The acquisition will better help position Descartes with large global 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
customers in advance of new EU compliance requirements, which take effect in Last Data Point: March 22, 2010
2011, as Porthus was the leading vendor for electronic customs filings in (FY-Jan.) 2009 A 2010A 2011E 2012E
GAAP EPS $0.38 $0.25 $0.10 $0.21
Europe. We don’t believe there is significant integration risk; while Porthus is P/E 62.7x 29.9x
the largest acquisition that the current management team has completed, the
CFPS $0.31 $0.29 $0.34 $0.49
complementary nature of the product portfolio (which is also network-based) P/CFPS 18.4x 12.8x
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 4 to 6.
Back to Index
Glacier Media
March 23, 2010
Research Comment
Toronto, Ontario
(GVC-TSX)
0.3
3
Impact 2 0.2
Slightly positive. 2009 operating results were slightly ahead of expectations and
1 0.1
business conditions have begun to improve. 4
Volume (mln)
4
2 2
Forecasts 0 0
GVC Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
150 150
Mostly unchanged. Please note our estimates do not include contributions from
potential acquisitions. 100 100
50 50
Valuation
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Last Data Point: March 22, 2010
Our $2.35 target price is based on ~6x 2011E EBITDA. (FY-Dec.) 2008 A 2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS $0.30 $0.15 $0.26 $0.30
P/E 7.9x 6.8x
Recommendation FCFPS $0.39 $0.18 $0.19 $0.22
P/FCFPS 10.8x 9.3x
Glacier Media reported fiscal 2009 results that were slightly ahead of
expectations. Business conditions began to improve in Q4 and the company CFPS $0.49 $0.28 $0.25 $0.29
Rev. ($mm) $249 $229 $234 $238
remains cautiously optimistic for 2010. We have assumed modest revenue EBITDA ($mm) $51.4 $35.8 $43.5 $46.7
EV/EBITDA 5.9x 8.1x 6.2x 5.3x
growth in 2010. Cost savings initiatives undertaken in 2009 will be fully
Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
realized in 2010. We reiterate our view that Glacier will be very selective in any 2008A $0.09 $0.14 $0.04 $0.03
acquisitions and that it is highly unlikely they will acquire any meaningful 2009A $0.03 $0.09 $0.05 -$0.02
2010E $0.06 $0.14 $0.03 $0.03
exposure to urban dailies. Glacier Media is rated Market Perform.
Dividend $0.00 Yield 0.0%
Book Value $3.35 Price/Book 0.6x
Shares O/S (mm) 92.7 Mkt . Cap ($mm) $190
Float O/S (mm) 60.5 Float Cap ($mm) $124
Wkly Vol (000s) 208 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $0.4
Net Debt ($mm) $103.7 Next Rep. Date 14-May (E)
Notes: All values in C$
Major Shareholders: Madison Venture Corp. (33%)
First Call Mean Estimates: GLACIER MEDIA INC (C$) 2009E:
$0.22; 2010E: $0.27; 2011E: $0.29
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 7 to 9.
Back to Index
5 5
Event 4 4
BMO Research has reviewed its estimates following Q4/09 financial results and 3 3
exploration results at the company’s Mana mine in Burkina Faso, the potential 1 1
50 50
Impact
0 0
Potentially Positive. BMO Research currently includes upside to the current 400
SMF Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
400
resources and PEA parameters for the Wona Deeps underground development.
200 200
However, airborne geophysics has suggested extensive regional potential and
0 0
expanded drill programs are beginning to test the identified targets. BMO 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Last Data Point: March 22, 2010
Research analysis indicates that the current premium afforded SEMAFO shares
(FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
implies that additions of at least 1.0Moz to mineable reserves are anticipated. EPS $0.12 $0.18 $0.29 $0.33
P/E 18.3x 16.2 x
producer and established a solid foundation for growth at Mana. Further Notes: Share price, target price and capitalization in C$, all other
values in US$
exploration success is likely given the prospectivity of the property, but much of Major Shareholders: Sentry Select Capital (16.5%)
First Call Mean Estimates: SEMAFO INC (US$) 2009E: $0.20;
the potential appears assumed given the current premium rating. 2010E: $0.33; 2011E: $0.39
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 9 to 12.
Back to Index
Drill Bits
March 23, 2010
Index Performance:
Weekly YTD
Week Ending: 19-Mar Change Change
S&P/TSX ET Index: 327.75 -0.4% 6.4%
S&P/TSX E&P Index 3,834 -2.2% -0.8%
S&P/TSX Composite 31,716 -0.5% 2.2%
Commodity Performance:
WTI Oil (US$/bbl): $80.68 -0.7% 1.7%
AECO Gas (C$/Mcf): $3.80 -8.9% -34.4%
US$/C$ Exchange Rate $0.9830 0.2% 3.4%
For the week, the S&P/TSX Canadian Energy Trust Index decreased 100
90
0.4%, while the S&P/TSX E&P Index declined by 2.2%. Year to 80 ET Index
TSX Co mp.
date, the Energy Trust Index is up 6.4%, compared to a 0.8% 70 TSX Comp.
E&P Index
decrease for the E&P Index and a 2.2% increase for the S&P/TSX 60
50
Composite.
Jan-07 M ay-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 No v-08 A pr-09 A ug-09 Jan-10
WTI crude oil ended the week at US$80.68/bbl (C$81.94), a N o t e : last data po int M arch 19, 2010 So urce: B M O Capital M arkets, B lo o mberg
decrease of 0.7% over last week’s close. WTI crude oil has averaged
WTI Oil (US$/bbl) and AECO Gas (C$/Mcf)
US$69.64/bbl over the past 12 months and US$78.38/bbl year to $ 150 $ 15.00
date. AECO natural gas closed the week at C$3.80/Mcf, a decline of $ 135 $ 13.50
8.9% from last week. AECO has averaged C$4.00/Mcf over the past WTI
AECO Gas (C$/Mcf)
$ 120 $ 12.00
WTI Oil (US$/bbl)
The top three performing royalty trusts last week were COS (4.6%), $ 90 $ 9.00
$ 75 $ 7.50
FRU (3.6%), DAY (3.3%), while the weakest performance came AECO
$ 60 $ 6.00
from PVE (-8.9%), AAV (-7.1%), PEY (-4.5%).
$ 45 $ 4.50
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 13 to 14.
Back to Index
Market Elements
March 23, 2010
Research Comment
Quantitative/Technical Research
Mark Steele
(416) 359-4641
mark.steele@bmo.com
Assoc: Tiberiu Stoichita
Equity markets gained; with the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 advancing Major currency crosses were little changed; Swiss Franc rose to a
to new highs; the VIX fell to a new closing low. record high vs. Euro, Brazilian real rebounded off of its 200d MA
Most global government bond markets rallied (North American the Euro closed on the 1.35 mark, the lowest close since last May.
market was the exception); Greek bonds staged a rebound; the Commodities generally rallied; albeit with little gusto.
corporate CDS market rebounded after a 2-day sell off.
Levels*
Currencies (USD per) Commodities Government 10- Yr Benchmark Equity Indices & Sentiment
Symbol H/L Level %Chg Symbol H/L Level %Chg Symbol H/L Level Chg Symbol H/L Level %Chg
DXY 80.82 0.2% DJ UBS 131.79 -0.2% U.S. 3.69 0.03 S&P 1200 1,345 0.5%
EUR 1.3498 -0.4% WTI Oil 81.89 0.8% Canada 3.47 0.01 S&P 500 H 1,174 0.7%
CHF 0.9456 0.1% NMX Gas 4.14 1.5% Germany 3.06 -0.01 S&P/TSX 12,045 0.6%
GBP 1.5039 -0.4% AECO Gas 3.60 0.0% France L 3.37 -0.02 Euro STOXX 2,911 0.7%
JPYx10 0.1106 -0.3% Gold 1,104.7 0.2% Switzerland 1.90 0.01 FTSE 100 H 5,674 0.5%
CAD 0.9844 0.3% Silver 17.03 0.3% Italy L 3.91 -0.02 Hang Seng 20,988 0.3%
AUD 0.9191 0.1% Platinum 1,610.5 0.7% Spain 3.82 -0.03 Topix 947 -0.2%
NZD 0.7076 0.2% Palladium 463.50 1.0% Greece 6.31 -0.14 S&P/ASX 4,875 0.9%
BRL 0.5630 0.8% CMX Cu 336.95 -0.1% U.K. 3.92 -0.01 Shang/Shen 3,276 -0.8%
MXNx10 0.8007 0.4% LME Al 3m 1.02 0.1% Australia 5.66 -0.02 Sensex30 17,451 0.2%
ZAR 0.1365 -0.1% LME Ni 3m 10.20 1.0% Hong Kong 2.66 -0.02 CDX IG 5Yr 87.35 -2.5%
KRWx10 0.8816 0.0% LME Zn 3m 1.02 -1.6% India 7.87 -0.01 TRIN 0.77 7%
SGD 0.7140 0.1% Lumber 278.40 -0.1% Japan 1.36 -0.02 VIX L 16.34 -3.1%
Moves
Currencies (spot) Commodities Government 10- Yr Benchmarks Equity Indices
BRL NMX Gas Greece S&P/ASX
MXN LME Ni 3m Spain
S&P 500
CAD Palladium Italy
WTI Oil Hong Kong Euro STOXX
NZD
Platinum Australia S&P/TSX
AUD
Silver France
SGD FTSE 100
Gold Japan
CHF S&P 1200
LME Al 3m Germany
KRW
AECO Gas India Hang Seng
ZAR
CMX Cu U.K. Sensex30
JPY Lumber Sw itzerland
Topix
GBP DJ UBS Canada
EUR LME Zn 3m U.S. Shang/Shen
1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.05 0.00 -0.05 -0.10 -0.15 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5%
Sectors
S&P Global 1200 S&P Europe 350 S&P 500 S&P/TSX Composite
Materials Industrials Materials Info Tech
0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
Source for all data and graphics in this publication: BMO Capital Markets, Bloomberg, Thomson
* H/L = at a new closing 52- wk High/Low; / = within 10% of the 52- week High/Low; Colour codes are inverted for bond and sentiment indications
This report was prepared in part by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s)
under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 8 to 9.
Market Elements
Daily Charts
3- Month View with 50- and 26- Day Moving Averages
Greek to Me (Greek 10-year bond yields fell 14bps and are 34bps off of Monday’s high): Germany, France Back IMF Role – Bloomberg; Greece, the
IMF and the euro - LEX; Greek Crisis Risks Boiling Over - WSJ; Germany sets conditions for Greek rescue - FT.
New high for the S&P 500; new low for the VIX.
S&P 500
S&P/TSX Composite
S&P Global 1200 ex U.S. & Canada S&P 500 S&P/TSX Composite
Name
SECURITY_NAME Symbol
TICKER % Chg
Chg Name
SECURITY_NAME Symbol % Chg
TICKER Chg Name
SECURITY_NAME Symbol % Chg
TICKER Chg
Energy Cairn Energy PLC CNE LN 7.9% EOG Resources Inc EOG 2.9% Bankers Petroleum Ltd BNK 7.5%
Technip SA TEC FP 5.3% Peabody Energy Corp BTU 2.5% Crew Energy Inc CR 3.9%
Saipem SpA SPM IM 4.0% Pioneer Natural Resources Co PXD 2.3% Mullen Group Ltd MTL 3.1%
Nippon Oil Corp 5001 JP -0.6% Baker Hughes Inc BHI -0.8% AltaGas Income Trust ALA-U -1.0%
TonenGeneral Sekiyu KK 5012 JP -0.7% BJ Services Co BJS -0.8% Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp PRE -1.6%
SK Energy Co Ltd
SECURITY_NAME 096770
TICKERKS -0.8%
Chg Nabors Industries Ltd
SECURITY_NAME NBR -4.3%
TICKER Chg Progress Energy Resources Corp
SECURITY_NAME PRQ -2.0%
TICKER Chg
Materials Cia Siderurgica Nacional SA SID US 5.8% Titanium Metals Corp TIE 9.3% Silvercorp Metals Inc SVM 5.0%
Vale SA VALE/P US 4.3% Cliffs Natural Resources Inc CLF 6.9% HudBay Minerals Inc HBM 4.0%
BlueScope Steel Ltd BSL AU 3.6% United States Steel Corp X 4.9% Lundin Mining Corp LUN 3.9%
Nitto Denko Corp 6988 JP -2.1% Airgas Inc ARG -0.4% Quadra Mining Ltd QUA -2.3%
Mitsui Chemicals Inc 4183 JP -2.1% Sigma-Aldrich Corp SIAL -0.5% Rubicon Minerals Corp RMX -2.3%
UPM-Kymmene
SECURITY_NAME OYJ UPM1V
TICKERFH -5.0%
Chg CF Industries Holdings Inc
SECURITY_NAME CF -0.9%
TICKER Chg Jaguar Mining Inc
SECURITY_NAME JAG -4.1%
TICKER Chg
Industrials TNT NV TNT NA 4.2% Flowserve Corp FLS 4.8% Transat AT Inc TRZ/B 2.1%
Metso OYJ MEO1V FH 3.6% Caterpillar Inc CAT 4.1% Superior Plus Corp SPB 2.1%
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Lt 7011 JP 3.1% Cummins Inc CMI 4.0% CAE Inc CAE 1.8%
European Aeronautic Defence an EAD FP -2.1% Norfolk Southern Corp NSC -0.3% TransForce Inc TFI -0.8%
BAE Systems PLC BA/ LN -2.2% Union Pacific Corp UNP -0.4% Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd CP -0.9%
All Nippon Airways Co Ltd
SECURITY_NAME 9202 JP
TICKER -6.0%
Chg Lockheed Martin Corp
SECURITY_NAME LMT -1.1%
TICKER Chg Canadian National Railway Co
SECURITY_NAME CNR -1.1%
TICKER Chg
Cons Disc OPAP SA OPAP GA 8.7% JC Penney Co Inc JCP 5.1% Linamar Corp LNR 4.0%
Li & Fung Ltd 494 HK 4.7% Lennar Corp LEN 4.7% Corus Entertainment Inc CJR/B 2.4%
Sony Corp 6758 JP 3.6% AutoNation Inc AN 4.2% Thomson Reuters Corp TRI 1.6%
Kingfisher PLC KGF LN -2.6% Amazon.com Inc AMZN -0.9% Sears Canada Inc SCC 0.0%
DSG International PLC DSGI LN -3.4% Harley-Davidson Inc HOG -1.0% Gildan Activewear Inc GIL -0.0%
Volkswagen AG
SECURITY_NAME VOW
TICKERGR -4.4%
Chg Expedia Inc
SECURITY_NAME EXPE -2.3%
TICKER Chg Canadian Tire Corp Ltd
SECURITY_NAME CTC/A -0.1%
TICKER Chg
Cons Stap Henkel AG & Co KGaA HEN3 GR 4.0% Kraft Foods Inc KFT 3.5% North West Co Fund NWF-U 1.6%
Carlsberg A/S CARLB DC 2.0% CVS Caremark Corp CVS 2.1% Cott Corp BCB 1.6%
Grupo Modelo SAB de CV GMODELOC MM 2.0% Mead Johnson Nutrition Co MJN 1.7% Saputo Inc SAP 1.4%
Wilmar International Ltd WIL SP -0.8% Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc CCE -0.5% Loblaw Cos Ltd L 0.1%
Asahi Breweries Ltd 2502 JP -1.2% Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc DPS -0.6% Maple Leaf Foods Inc MFI -0.6%
Unilever PLC
SECURITY_NAME ULVR
TICKERLN -1.6%
Chg Philip Morris International In
SECURITY_NAME PM -0.9%
TICKER Chg Metro Inc
SECURITY_NAME MRU/A -0.8%
TICKER Chg
Health Care Elan Corp PLC ELN ID 2.7% Pfizer Inc PFE 2.3% MDS Inc MDS 2.2%
Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB DC 1.4% Waters Corp WAT 2.1% Biovail Corp BVF 1.1%
Sonic Healthcare Ltd SHL AU 0.9% Watson Pharmaceuticals Inc WPI 1.8% CML Healthcare Income Fund CLC-U 0.5%
Eisai Co Ltd 4523 JP -1.6% Quest Diagnostics Inc/DE DGX -1.2% SXC Health Solutions Corp SXC -0.0%
CSL Ltd CSL AU -1.7% WellPoint Inc WLP -1.2%
Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co
SECURITY_NAME FME GR
TICKER -2.0%
Chg Laboratory Corp of America Hol
SECURITY_NAME LH -2.5%
TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg
Financials Legal & General Group PLC LGEN LN 4.7% E*Trade Financial Corp ETFC 7.3% FirstService Corp FSV 2.4%
Resolution Ltd RSL LN 4.5% Citigroup Inc C 2.2% AGF Management Ltd AGF/B 2.3%
Alpha Bank AE ALPHA GA 3.5% Wells Fargo & Co WFC 2.2% CI Financial Corp CIX 1.6%
Daiwa House Industry Co Ltd 1925 JP -2.2% Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The GS -0.8% Dundee Real Estate Investment D-U -0.7%
Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd 8801 JP -3.3% SunTrust Banks Inc STI -0.8% National Bank of Canada NA -0.7%
Promise Co Ltd
SECURITY_NAME 8574 JP
TICKER -3.6%
Chg ProLogis
SECURITY_NAME PLD -0.9%
TICKER Chg Home Capital Group Inc
SECURITY_NAME HCG -0.8%
TICKER Chg
Technology Infineon Technologies AG IFX GR 5.1% Lexmark International Inc LXK 5.5% Celestica Inc CLS 4.6%
Toshiba Corp 6502 JP 3.6% KLA-Tencor Corp KLAC 4.4% Research In Motion Ltd RIM 2.2%
ASML Holding NV ASML NA 3.1% Dell Inc DELL 4.1% MacDonald Dettwiler & Associat MDA 1.5%
MediaTek Inc 2454 TT -2.1% Google Inc GOOG -1.5% CGI Group Inc GIB/A 0.0%
Asustek Computer Inc 2357 TT -2.1% Amphenol Corp APH -1.7% Open Text Corp OTC -0.2%
Redecard SA
SECURITY_NAME RDCD3 BZ
TICKER -2.2%
Chg Yahoo! Inc
SECURITY_NAME YHOO Chg
TICKER -1.9% SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg
Telecom Telenor ASA TEL NO 2.0% Qwest Communications Internati Q 3.7% TELUS Corp T 1.5%
Portugal Telecom SGPS SA PTC PL 1.9% Sprint Nextel Corp S 3.4% BCE Inc BCE 0.5%
Singapore Telecommunications L ST SP 1.6% MetroPCS Communications Inc PCS 2.0% Bell Aliant Regional Communica BA-U 0.2%
Telstra Corp Ltd TLS AU -1.3% AT&T Inc T 0.6% Manitoba Telecom Services Inc MBT 0.1%
Tele Norte Leste Participacoes TNE US -1.9% CenturyTel Inc CTL 0.5% Rogers Communications Inc RCI/B -0.1%
Nippon Telegraph & Telephone C
SECURITY_NAME 9432 JP
TICKER -2.3%
Chg Frontier Communications Corp
SECURITY_NAME FTR
TICKER Chg0.3% SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg
Utilities Veolia Environnement VIE FP 4.1% Questar Corp STR 1.6% Capital Power Income LP CPA-U 1.8%
Suez Environnement Co SEV FP 3.4% FirstEnergy Corp FE 1.4% Fortis Inc/Canada FTS 1.1%
Cia Energetica de Minas Gerais CIG US 2.6% Oneok Inc OKE 1.2% TransAlta Corp TA 1.0%
United Utilities Group PLC UU/ LN -1.4% AES Corp/The AES -0.4% Atco Ltd ACO/X -0.1%
Osaka Gas Co Ltd 9532 JP -1.8% Sempra Energy SRE -0.5% Just Energy Income Fund JE-U -0.5%
Chubu Electric Power Co Inc 9502 JP -3.1% Xcel Energy Inc XEL -0.9% Atlantic Power Corp ATP -0.5%
H/L = at a new closing 52- wk High/Low; / = within 10% of the 52- wk High/Low; Blue = S&P/TSX 60 member, Italics = ETF, Bold = move of more than 5%
Red = Canadian incorporated, Blue = U.S. incorporated, Highlighted = S&P Global 1200 Index member
Mark Steele
(416) 359-4641
mark.steele@bmo.com
Assoc: Tiberiu Stoichita
Euro Breakdown
CLICK HERE for a printer friendly version of this report including research disclosures.
The euro brok e to the down side at 4:40 a.m. this This euro weakn ess / dollar st rength will c ertainly weaken gold
morning (before Fitch downgraded Portugal; and on this shares, which have dropped to a 6th decil e position in our
downgrade, we note that it is having little if any impact Group Selection Report.
on Portuguese sovereign deb t so far – see BMO Chart). It will a lso hold Europ ean indi ces in four-bom b
This euro break down follows a failed upsid e r eversal underperforming trends, and No rth American in dices in four-
only eight sessions ago – Figure 1. Risk on the euro is to star outperforming patterns compared to the S&P Global 1200 –
the 1.32 level. Headline risk is certainly the order of the see link.
week and year for the euro.
For equity investors - stay dollar bloc.
Figure 1: Euro With 200-, 50- and 26-Day Moving Averages at 6:40 a.m. This Morning
Economic Research
March 24, 2010
Research Comment
A.M. Notes
On today’s docket… U.S. durable goods orders—February (@ 08:30): Sal Guatieri notes that they should rise 0.6%, boosted by a
jump in Boeing orders. However, lower auto production likely acted as a slight headwind. Excluding transportation, orders are
expected to retrace part of the prior month’s 1% decline. Core capital goods orders (a good proxy for business capital spending)
which were particularly weak in January, plunging 4.1%, likely also rebounded, but probably not enough to erase the earlier decline.
U.S. new home sales—February (@ 10:00): Sal also notes that they are likely to hold flat at January’s record low 309,000. While
the small increase in the NAHB index in February points to some potential gain, it was likely overwhelmed by the poor weather.
And, with the NAHB falling in March, the outlook for housing remains negative. (Yesterday, existing sales slipped 0.6% to 5.02
mln, down for the third month in row).
Then cometh the Canadian policymakers… Finance Minister Jim Flaherty will hold a news conference @ 9:00. He’s apparently
announcing the kickoff of pension reform consultations, as advertised in the recent budget.
Bank of Canada Governor Carney speaks on “The Virtue of Productivity in a Wicked World”. The text will be released @12:50,
followed by a press conference @ 14:10. Any discussion on productivity will probably touch on the loftiness of the loonie and the
need for Canadian firms to become more productive to compete in foreign markets and at home (with the C$ also providing a means
to achieve this—cheaper imported capital goods). It could also touch on other implications of Canada’s poor productivity
performance—it lowers the economic speed limit and has already been cited (in January’s MPR) as a culprit contributing to the
“stickiness” of core inflation by keeping unit labour cost increases stubbornly high.
However, with it now looking like the BoC’s projections for Q1 core CPI inflation (1.6% y/y) and real GDP growth (3.5%) will
both come up short, market participants will be scouring the text and Q&A for clues to the timing and magnitude of those first few
policy rate hikes. While Mr. Carney might hint at an upgrade to the near-term projections to be presented in April’s Monetary
Policy Report, we still wouldn’t be surprised if the Governor downplays the recent upside surprise in the core CPI (owing to
Olympic-sized hotel price hikes) and run of reports pointing to a solid January GDP gain with February overflow (owing to the
Olympics again along with pulled-forward housing activity and the temporary ripples from North American inventory restocking).
The policy clues could be sparse.
Sector Comment Economic Research
The Province of Saskatchewan will table its FY2010/11 budget @ 16:15. Robert Kavcic
notes that it’s expected to focus on spending restraint as resource revenues remain under
pressure. In its latest FY2009/10 update, the Province penciled in a $425 mln surplus, but an
$86 mln deficit before transfers from the reserve fund. The weakened fiscal position (which is
still quite healthy relative to all other Provinces) is the result of a massive $2.1 bln decline in
potash revenues from last year’s original budget plan—prices and production both fell sharply
last year. The Province has already begun to reign in spending plans, lowering the FY2009/10
tally by $100 mln during the last year, and this year’s budget will likely take further aim at
government expenses.
Yesterday afternoon, Manitoba tabled its budget. Rob reported that the province’s FY2010/11
plan takes a balanced approach to deficit reduction against a still-fragile economic backdrop,
offering modest spending growth and some tax/user fee increases. It is projecting a $545 mln
summary deficit in FY2010/11, slightly improved from an estimated $555 mln deficit in
FY2009/10. The Province will lean on its Fiscal Stabilization Account for $129 mln. Longer
term, the Province is anticipating four years of deficits before returning to a $185 mln surplus in
FY2014/15… We get Ontario tomorrow.
Rounding out Wednesday’s docket… 10:30: U.S. DoE petroleum report for March 19th…
10:45: KC Fed Pres. Hoenig (the two-time FOMC dissenter) speaks on “The Financial
Foundation for Main Street”… 12:05: C$3.2 bln auction of 3-year Government of Canada
bonds… 13:00: US$42.0 bln auction of 5-year U.S. Treasury notes… 20:00: Fed Gov. Kohn
speaks on “Homework Assignments for Monetary Policymakers”.
Just in… The ABC News consumer index decreased a notch to -44 for March 21st, still the
second best reading in the past 11 weeks… The MBA mortgage index decreased 4.2% (-
47.9% y/y) for March 19th.
The US$ index is up strongly this morning, thanks mostly to a sizeable drop in the euro (see
below). All the other majors are weaker as well, with the NZ$ lagging after Q4’s current
account deficit widened much more than expected. Elsewhere, Japan’s February merchandise
trade surplus came in higher than consensus, as exports rose 45.3% y/y. Export volumes were
solid too, up 1.2% on the month and 44% y/y. But the decent data didn’t help the yen. The
pound is softer ahead of a pre-election budget announcement by the ruling Labour party (who
are trailing in the polls). The budget is expected to lay out the framework for returning to a
more sustainable fiscal path. The strong US$ is weighing on commodities: oil is down 1.7% to
$80.50, gold is $10 lower to $1095, base metals are down 1% to 2%, and grains are weaker as
well.
The euro fell to its lowest level since last May, as it appears that the IMF will be part of any
aid package for Greece. Markets are concerned that IMF involvement could mean ever
harsher austerity measures (since currency devaluation isn’t an option), which could prompt a
potential exit from the Euro area by Greece. The push to get the IMF involved came solely
from Germany who has strongly resisted providing any support to Greece, as it is politically
extremely unpopular. IMF involvement would add some credibility to the process, as it is very
experienced in these matters, but it certainly shows that the Euro area can’t take care of its own.
This crisis is a test of the currency’s staying power, and if Greece is allowed to exit, that may
only be the first step towards eventual dissolution of the Euro area. Greece isn’t the only
country facing difficulty, as Fitch downgraded Portugal’s sovereign debt rating one notch to
AA- and kept the negative outlook (meaning more downgrades are possible). Politics are
starting to play a more prominent role in the crisis, which could spell trouble for heavily
indebted Euro area countries. As long as the Greece situation drags on without resolution, the
euro will likely remain under pressure. Moreover, if there’s no resolution soon, Portugal and
Spain could soon be in the spotlight as well.
Meantime, Euro area data were mostly solid. The manufacturing and services PMIs for
March handily beat expectations. The manufacturing index rose to its best level since Dec.
’06, while the services measure hit a 28-month high. Germany’s Ifo survey of business
confidence also beat expectations, rising 2.9 pts to 98.1 in March, a 21-month high. The
current situation and expectations components both gained ground. The improvement in both
the PMIs and the Ifo survey point to more solid growth in Q2 following a weather-dampened
Q1. There was one bit of softer news though, as Euro area industrial new orders fell 2% in
January. The consensus call was for a similar-sized gain. Bottom Line: Europe is recovering,
but the pace remains sluggish.
Asian equity markets closed higher, as the Nikkei rose 0.4%, the Hang Seng gained 0.1%, and
China’s CSI 300 was flat. European markets are down; DAX (-0.7%), CAC (-0.9%), FTSE (-
0.5%). U.S. equity futures are pointing to a lower open. U.S. treasuries are little changed. Gilts
and Bund 10-yrs yields are flat as well. JGB 10-yr yields were down 1 bp.
Currency Market
Current Change High Low
7:01 AM
US$ Index 81.56 +0.66 81.609 80.803
C$ 1.0219 +0.0060 1.0228 1.0157
C$ (US ce nts) 97.85 -0.58 97.77 98.46
GBP 1.4958 -0.0091 1.5047 1.4949
EUR 1.3359 -0.0140 1.3505 1.3350
JPY 91.19 +0.79 91.27 90.38
A$ 0.9127 -0.0061 0.9195 0.9111
CNY 6.8267 +0.0003
Data Docket:
Japan: Merchandise Trade Surplus (Feb) ¥651 bln, better than expected;
exports up 45.3% y/y
Euro area: Manufacturing PMI (Mar A) 56.3, up 2.1 pts and better than
expected
Services PMI (Mar A) 53.7, up 1.9 pts and better than expected
Industrial New Orders (Jan) -2.0%, +7.0% y/y
Germany: Ifo Survey (Mar) 98.1, up 2.9 pts and better than expected
AM CHARTS
Perhaps That 5% Q4 Growth Was No Fluke
A Tale Of Two Housing Markets
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