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25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

Daily Markets Update

1 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

Fundamental Outlook:

EU summit and British retails sales dominate the scene

The top notch data continue to stream our way from the European continent, where following yesterday's massive drama and budgetary
concerns and UK's 2010 Budget; the lengthily week for Greece is about to end as the EU summit is hours from finalizing the anticipation for
markets and conclude the verdict on Greek aid!

Yesterday, the attention was dedicated to the UK as Darling presented the 2010 Budget to the House of Commons, and though he did predict a
lower than expected shortfall in budget, markets were not convinced of the worthiness of the steps taken to stem the expansion of the deficit
and the plan to halve the deficit in four years to 4% in 2014.

The sky is still cloudy for UK and the sun has barely struck a cord on the Kingdom, forcing the Chancellor to withhold his support for the
economy on the expense of the rising debt burden. He downgraded his growth projections for the coming year to between 3.0% and 3.5% from
the upper bound in December at 3.75%. Meanwhile, for this year growth is still expected sluggish with unchanged expectations at 1.0% to
1.5% which markets perceive as optimistic!

Darling did play down unemployment levels, saying that they were indeed less worrisome than projected. Now standing at 7.8% which is still
elevated is rather a hurdle for the recovery as households disposable income continues affecting demand for the spendthrift nations.

That is going to be reflected upon retail sales today for February, expectations are for 0.6% rebound following the 1.2% drop with the start of
the year; excluding volatile factors, sales are expected to have risen 0.8% following a deep 1.8% slump the previous month.

Nonetheless, with reasoning that the reversal of the VAT last month alongside the harsh weather conditions have kept buyers away, some see
that the likelihood for the conditions to have continued to control the market extended and the market is rather downbeat on figures and
expect the worst scenario. Nonetheless, we are not to be surprised with the figures for the sentiment has been improving and the improvement
in the labor market must have eased the shunning from the market.

The focus today is to be on the EU Leaders summit in Brussels which will continue for two days. The markets are waiting for the final discloser
of details regarding a rescue package for Greece, especially with the lack of information provided. Will be Greece getting aid, will it require
harsh rules, will it be a combined EU and IMF effort or will Greece be left alone in the dark and have to resort to the IMF for support?!

Until yesterday, the sentiment continued to grow more bearish especially with France joining the German opposition to the aid and implying
the IMF role in the bailout. France was reluctant to result to the IMF at first alongside Trichet and Junker, as they view the issue as a
fundamental failure for the area to deal with its own issues!

Germany is already troubled domestically with the idea of providing aid to Greece amid harsh economic conditions and political tension,
especially with tax payers viewing better use of their money. German PM already suggested according to press reports that Greece should sell
inhabited islands or maybe monuments to cover its shortfall, angering Greece and fueling further tension in the relations.

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25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

Nonetheless, with Fitch Ratings yesterday announcing a one step downgrade for Portugal's credit rating to 'AA-' which resembles part of the
conservative Germany had over the bailout. Further spreading of the contagion means further support might be on the line for other nations.
Either or, the comments from Germany regarding the IMF having a role in the bailout implied at least to markets that a deal has been reached
and they are awaiting the details now.

Already the euro has been hammered and the sentiment is strongly bearish on the euro as it lingers in its weakest in 10 months versus the
dollar and hit a record low versus the Swiss Franc. Today volatility is expected to be very high and markets are not much optimistic on the aid
package yet a stringent one will send the euro further lower or if proved to be good will send it higher. And so we must wait for the resolutions
of the summit!

3 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

EURUSD

4 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

The Technical out look for the EUR/USD Thursday, March 25th, 2010, level 1.3331

With the breach yesterday of: 1.3350 (61.8% projection of 1.3816 to 1.3463 measuring from 1.3570) and of the EW target at target 1.3343/48
(50% projection of 1.4580-1.3585 measuring from 1.3840 and 1.4415 to 1.3532 measuring from 1.3789) and the intraday low of 1.3299 ,
confirms again the decline from the top at 1.5145 has resumed and indicated initial downside now target to the 61.8% projection of 1.4578 to
1.3443 from 1.3815 at 1.3111 or the 150.0% projection of 1.5143 to 1.4217 from 1.4578 at 1.3147. The RSI & the stochastic oscillators are in
bear mode as well as all our indicators, confirming by the way the likely continuation of the fall.

On the upside: In view of the above analysis, we are still looking to sell euro on recovery. A move to 1.3440 is possible but only break above
resistance at 1.3550/30 cluster resistance would signal a temporary low is possibly formed and risk rebound to 1.3630/40.

Furthermore in an Elliott Wave point of view and I kept my count, the bigger picture, outlook remains unchanged. The three wave rises from
1.2329 is treated as consolidation to fall from 1.6039 only and should have completed at 1.5143 already. Fall from 1.5143 is tentatively treated
as resumption of the whole down trend form 1.6039 and should target a new low below 1.2329. Otherwise, we'd expect fall 1.5143 to continue
even in case of strong rebound. Technically the EURO IS IN A BEAR TREND as far that 1.4217 is not broken up. With the clear break yesterday of
the intermediate EW target at target 1.3343/48 (50% projection of 1.4580-1.3585 measuring from 1.3840 and 1.4415 to 1.3532 measuring
from 1.3789) we are heading now to 1.3147/11. Following my count we have ended wave 4 of III at 1.3815 and we are heading to the
mentioned targets and we are now in wave 5 of III

In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 has made an important top at 1.6039 in 2008. Subsequent price actions
are so far viewed as a correction only, in form of three waves. First wave has completed at 1.2329 while secondly should have completed at
1.5143. Fall from 1.5143, as the third wave of correction, is in progress and should extend to 1.1639 supports, and possibly further to 100%
projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209
to conclude the correction and bring another long term up trend.

5 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

USD/CHF:

6 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for USD/CHF Thursday, March 25th, 2010, level 1.0701

The yesterday USD/CHF strong rebound to 1.0739 (High) and the breach of 1.0702 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0899 to 1.0506) , where
we stand now, signal that the recent fall from 1.0899 has ended at 1.0506. We need to move above 1.0750 today to clear the way to the key
resistance at 1.0809, on a breach of this last level will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 0.10131to 1.0898 from 1.0506 at 1.0911 next. . The
RSI & the stochastic oscillators are in bull mode as well as all our indicators, confirming by the way the likely continuation of the rally.

On the Downside: The 1.0666 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from 1.0547 to 1.0738 and our short term trend indicator now at 1.0645 on 4
hours chart will bring support and must held the currency. In view of the above analysis, we are still looking to buy USD on correction but only
break of the minor support at 1.0547 would revive our bearishness for retest of 1.0506, below would extend the fall from 1.0899 for a stronger
retracement of early up move to 1.0424 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0130 to 1.0899) later.

Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, there is no change of my view: The medium term correction from 1.2296
should have completed with three waves down to 0.9916 already. Current rise from 0.9916 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long
term up trend from 2008 low of 0.9634. Sustained break of mentioned medium term trend line resistance (Green trend line on chart now at
1.0941) will further affirm this view. In such case, we'd be looking at stronger rise to 1.1963/2296 resistance zone in medium term. On the
downside, break of 1.0131 supports is needed to invalidate this bullish view. Otherwise, another rise is still expected even in case of deep
pullback.

7 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

EUR/CHF:

8 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for EUR/CHF Thursday, March 25th, 2010, level 1.4271

With the breached 1.4315 EW target we expect the current fall to continue with 1.4406 minor resistance intact. Sustained trading below key
support of 1.4315 will pave the way to 1.4 psychological level next and target 1.3869 . On the upside, break of 1.4406 will indicate that a short
term bottom is in place and stronger recovery could be seen to the short term trend indicator at now at 1.4472(light blue line on the chart)
before resuming the down trend.

Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the long term picture, the current decline in EUR/CHF should be resuming larger term down
trend from 1.6827. Sustained trading below 1.4135 (2008 low) has confirm this case and we are heading to the 61.8% projection of 1.6368 to
1.4315 from 1.5138 at 1.3869. On the upside, break of 1.4557 spike resistance is needed to be first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will
remain bearish.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to
extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run.

9 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

GBP/USD:

10 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for GBP/USD Thursday, March 25Th, 2010, level 1.4917

Yesterday's break down below the 1.4931 support renewed selling pressure but next support around 1.4870 currently limits the downside. As
discussed before, choppy recovery from 1.4783 should have completed with three waves up to 1.5381 already. Further fall should be seen to
retest 1.4783 low first and a break of 1.4770 will confirm that whole decline from 1.6456 is resuming for 1.4364/37 next targets (200%
projection of 1.6875 to 1.5829 from 1.6456 at 1.4364 or 61.8% projection from 1.6456 to 1.4783 from 1.5381 at 1.4337 and 76.4%
retracement from 1.3500 to 1.6875 at 1.4337). Some consolidations could be seen but upside should be limited by the short term trend
indicator now at 1.5127 (light blue line on the chart) and bring fall resumption.

Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, there is no change, we're holding on the bearish view that medium term
rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043 already. Fall from there is
tentatively treated as resumption of the down trend from 2.1161 and should target a new low below 1.3503. On the upside, break of 1.5815
resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the
multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (1985 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in
an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for
61.8% projection (2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043) at 1.2310 next.

11 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

AUD/USD:

12 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for AUD/USD Thursday, March 25th 2010, level 0.9126

The AUDUSD slipped below the lower band of the ascending channel now at 0.9117 (green line on the chart) yesterday indicating potential
bullish failure and bearish reversal. However, price still struggling around the lower band of the channel and cannot stay consistently below
this band so far. We need a clear break below the lower band of the ascending channel to confirm the bearish scenario targeting 0.8970 area.
We got an immediate resistance at 0.9150. Break above that area could be seen as a false breakdown scenario which could trigger further
upside momentum re-testing 0.9250 and keep the bullish scenario intact.

Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture: we must the sustained trading above short term trend line (in light blue on
chart now at 0.9149) suggests that correction from 0.9404 has completed with three waves down to 0.8577. In other words, whole rally from
0.6008 might be set to resume for another high above 0.9404. If we treat the rise from 0.8577 as the fifth wave in the rise from 0.6008 with
equal length as the first wave from 0.6008 to 0.7267, upside target will be 0.9836, which is close to 2008 high of 0.9849. On the downside,
break of 0.8802 supports is needed to be the first signal to revive the case that AUD/USD has already topped out. Otherwise, we'll remain
cautiously bullish in AUD/USD.

In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above
76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new uptrend which will extend the
long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 cluster support holds and expect an eventual
break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open
up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.

13 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

USD/JPY

14 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for USD/JPY Thursday, March 25th, 2010, level 91.93

Finally, the USDJPY made a significant bullish momentum after consolidating for almost three weeks, topped at 92.38 and closed at 91.87. The
upper band of the descending channel now at 90.89 has been violated to the upside, confirms the bullish reversal scenario at least targeting
93.74 areas. We got an immediate support at 91.60. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 91.07 areas.

Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, outlook is mildly bullish for the moment. On the upside, break of 92.14
resistance will confirm that whole decline from 93.74 has completed with three waves down to 88.13 already. The corrective structure will in
turn indicate that rise from 84.81 is still in progress for another high above 93.74. On the downside, break of 88.13 will reaffirm the bearish
case that rise from 84.81 is completed at 93.74 already and will turn focus to 87.36 support for confirmation!

In the long term picture, downside momentum is clearly diminishing. However, there is no confirmation of long term reversal yet. Down trend
from 124.13 might still continue as long as 101.43 resistance holds and might extend further towards 79.75. Nevertheless, break of 101.43
resistance will break the lower high lower low pattern and will suggest that a long term bottom is in place. The trend should then reversed to
continue the sideway pattern that started at 79.75 in 1995

15 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

EUR/JPY

16 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for EUR/JPY Thursday, March 25th, 2010, level 122.63

The EURJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, but still unable to close above 122.62. Although the bias is more to the upside in nearest term,
we will need a clear break above 123.00 to cancel the bearish outlook targeting 124.00 areas. But after all, we'd continue to expect strong
resistance at 125.22/26 to conclude the corrective rise from 119.64 and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, 121.50/00 area
should remain a key support level at this phase. Break below 119.64 will confirm down trend resumption to 61.8% projection of 134.36 to
119.64 from 125.19 at 116.09 next.

Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, there is no change in our bearish view. That is, medium term rebound from
112.10, which is treated as a correction to long term down trend from 2008 high of 169.96, should have completed at 139.21 already, after
multiple failure to sustain above 55 weeks EMA. Recent decline is expected to resume sooner or later to a new low below 112.10. However,
note that decisive break of 125.22 cluster resistance will argue that recent fall might have completed already. Further break of 126.88 support
turned resistance will argue that medium term rise from 112.10 might be still in progress for another high above 139.21 before completion.

In the long term picture, the uptrend from 88.96 (2000 low) was completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Fall from 169.96 should
develop into a three wave correction with first wave completed at 112.10, second wave completed at 139.21. Current fall is likely the third
wave and should extend beyond to 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.21 from 139.21 at 103.45 or further to 100 psychological support next.

17 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

GBP/JPY

18 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for GBP/JPY Thursday, March 25th, 2010, level 137.74

The GBPJPY failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday. On the chart above we can see that the bearish channel has been violated to
the upside indicating potential bearish failure the upside is expected to be limited below 139.33 resistance and bring fall resumption.
Immediate support is at 136.50 areas. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 135.50 areas. Below 134.53 will
turn bias back to the downside for 132.13 low first. Break there will confirm down trend resumption and should target 61.8% projection of
150.68 to 132.13 from 139.33 at 127.86 next.

Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture; The medium term rebound from 118.18, which is correction to the long term
down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Decline from 163.05 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term
down trend from 2007 high of 251.09 and should target a new low below 118.81. On the upside, decisive break of 143.59 cluster resistance
(61.8% retracement of 150.68 to 132.13 at 143.59) is needed to invalidate this view.

19 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

USD/CAD

20 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for USD/CAD Thursday, March 25th, 2010, level 1.0205

No Change: The day bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations could still be seen above 1.0062. However, note
that a break of 1.0369 resistance is needed to indicate that USD/CAD has bottomed. Otherwise, recent fall is still expected to continue. Below
1.0062 will target a test on 1.0 psychological level next.

Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, medium term decline from 1.3063 is still in progress. It's unclear whether such fall is resuming
the long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) or it is a part of a consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056 (2007 low). In either case, fall
from 1.3063 is now expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.3063 to 1.0784 from 1.1723 at 0.9444 next. On the upside, break of
1.0779 resistance is needed to be the first signal that fall from 1.3063 is finished. Otherwise, the Outlook for the USD/CAD remains bearish and
we will stay bearish as long as 1.0779 resistances held.

21 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

GOLD

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25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for GOLD: Thursday, March 25th, 2010, level 1092.5

As noted before, Gold might have completed a head and shoulders top reversal pattern (LS: 1131.5, H: 1145.8, RS: 1133.3) by closing under
1097.3 (neck line of a Head and shoulders pattern) and rise from 1145.8 is already finished. The bias now remains on the downside for 1088.5
support first and break will bring deeper fall to 1048.8, the target of the head and shoulders pattern. On the upside, above 1108.5 minor
resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again and argue that price actions from 1131.5 are merely consolidations. That is, rise from 1044.5 is
still in progress for 1163 resistance.

Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only, no
doubt. Question is on whether such correction is finished. But with the breach of 1097.3 favor to the case that correction from 1227.5 is not
completed and fall from 1145.8 would be developing into the third wave of such correction for another low below 1044.5 perhaps to 1026
before longer term up trend resumption.

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25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

CrudeOIL

24 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for OIL Thursday, March 25th, 2010, level 80.84

No Change: Crude oil is perhaps forming a triangle pattern and the consolidation is not over. On the upside, a close above 80.94 minor
resistance will flip the bias back to the upside. Further break of 83.16 will target 83.95 high. However, note that sustained trading below 77.94
Fibonacci level will argue that rise from 69.50 is completed and deeper fall would possibly be seen to retest this support.

Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise
from 33.2 might still be in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in
case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring
reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn
outlook bearish.

25 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010

26 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

The technical outlook for DJI: Thurssday, March 25Rd, 2010, level 10814.4

As said yesterday we have a risk a top by reaching the EW target at 10814and where we are struggling now. We are perhaps only on a small
consolidation. We need to close over 10828 minor resistance to rally to our next EW target at 10973 first. On the downside a consolidation to
10689 is possible and may hold and bring full resumption of the rally. As far 10635 held now, I remain bullish for the DOW but with a stop now
below 10630.

Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the count suggests that the bear market ended in Mar 09. The anticipated 50% retracement rally
was actually the start of a new 70-80 year super cycle bull market. The three waves up, thus far, are only Major waves 1-2-3 of Primary wave I
of Cycle wave I of this bull market. Should the current downtrend conclude with alternation with the Jun/July downtrend, and hold the 10%
correction, it will be labeled Major wave 4 with up Major wave 5 to follow. The most obvious count would be an abc down from the highs into
DOW 9789.9 and an X or a B wave rally underway now, because we may count 3 or 5 waves up for now the count is not clear. But with the
break up10723: the move from 10258.9 to 9789.9 is perhaps wave 4 of I and the current wave is wave 5 of I. But as said previously we count
only 3 waves up on this rally and we need a correction that perhaps ended at 10614 for wave 4 of 5 of I. Now we are in wave 5 of I , in an
another rally, with a first target at 10814that have been clear with a high at 10828, we need to close higher than this last level to confirm the
continuation of the rally or we have a risk of a top at this level. Remember that this Wave I is the the start of a super bullish super cycle of 50-
70 years and will be followed by a wave II in correction that may be profound.

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25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

Economic Calendar

23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Feb -1.2% -1.0%

Thursday, Mar 25, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous


-- EUR European Union Summit -- --
00:00 USD Fed's Donald Kohn Speaks in Davidson North Carolina -- --
00:30 AUD RBA Semi-Annnual Financial Stability Review -- --
01:30 JPY BoJ's Hidetoshi Kamezaki Speaks in Kochi City Japan -- --
07:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (APR) 3.1 3.2
07:45 EUR French Consumer Spending M/M Feb 0.0% -2.7%
07:45 EUR French Consumer Spending Y/Y Feb 2.9% 1.5%
08:30 EUR Italian Business Confidence Mar 84.4 84.0
09:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales s.a. M/M Jan 0.1% 0.0%
09:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales Y/Y Jan 0.7%
09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 s.a. (3M) Feb -0.1% -0.1%
09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 s.a. Y/Y Feb -0.1% 0.1%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel M/M Feb 0.5% -1.2%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel Y/Y Feb 4.9% 2.6%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales inc Auto Fuel M/M Feb 0.8% -1.8%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales inc Auto Fuel Y/Y Feb 3.3% 0.9%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 20) 450K 457K
12:30 USD Continuing Claims (MAR 13) 4560K 4579K
13:00 USD RPX Composite 28 Day Y/Y Jan -- -1.1%
13:00 USD RPX Composite 28 Day Index (JAN 21) -- 193.91
13:10 USD Fed's Sandra Pianalto Speaks in Bonita Springs Florida -- --
14:00 USD Fed's Bernanke Testifies House Financial Services Committee -- --
21:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Feb -- 269M
21:45 NZD Trade Balance (YTD) (NZD) Feb -- -178M
21:45 NZD Imports (NZD) Feb -- 2.88B
21:45 NZD Exports (NZD) Feb -- 3.15B
22:15 AUD RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks in Sydney Australia -- --
23:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Jan -- 0.6%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y Mar -1.7% -1.8%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food Y/Y Mar -1.7% -1.8%
28 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Ex Food Energy Y/Y Mar -1.2% -1.3%
23:30 JPY National CPI Y/Y Feb -1.1% -1.3%
23:30 JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food Y/Y Feb -1.2% -1.3%
23:30 JPY National CPI Ex Food Energy Y/Y Feb -1.1% -1.2%

Friday, Mar 26, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous


-- EUR European Union Summit -- --
07:45 EUR French Consumer Confidence Indicator Mar -33 -33
09:30 GBP Total Business Investment Q/Q Q4 F -5.8% -5.8%
09:30 GBP Total Business Investment Y/Y Q4 F -24.1% -24.1%
10:30 CHF KOF Institute Economic Forecst Mar -- --
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q4 F 5.9% 5.9%
12:30 USD Personal Consumption Q4 F 1.7% 1.7%
12:30 USD Core PCE Q/Q Q4 F 1.6% 1.6%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q4 F 0.4% 0.4%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Mar F 73.0 72.5
15:30 USD Fed's Kevin Warsh Speaks in New York City -- --
20:00 USD Fed's Bullard ECB's Papademos Speak in Washington D.C -- --
22:00 USD Fed's Daniel Tarullo Speaks in Washington D.C. -- --

29 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
25 mars 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

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30 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61

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