From: Carpe Diem-A.

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Sent: Sunday, November 01, 2015 1:13 PM
Subject: Now how does al Qaeda moves from NWA to Shorawak - Pearls of
Unadulterated nonsense?
See: Al Qaedas Kandahar training camp probably the largest in Afghan War LONG
WAR JOURNAL OCT 2015 http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/10/alqaedas-kandahar-training-camp-probably-the-largest-in-afghan-war.php?
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Now how does al Qaeda move from NWA to Shorawak - Pearls of Unadulterated
Nonsense? By Major Agha H. Amin, ret.1
In review of the above-noted article, one may question, do Al Qaeda members have social
security numbers that identify them? How can it be claimed that 60 Al Qaeda members were
killed, which as per the CIA did not number more than 15 or 20 in 2011?
What happened to U.S. tax payers money to build an exorbitant Afghan Border Police
Battalion in Shorawak?
What are sophisticated U.S. surveillance systems doing in Afghanistan?

1 Agha H. Amin is a retired Tank corps major who served in five Pakistani tank regiments, commanded an
independent tank squadron and served in various staff, instructional and research assignments. He presently
heads the think tank, Centre for Study of Intelligence Operations. He is Editor-in-Chief of the monthly
Intelligence Review and monthly Military and Security Review. In his Pakistan Army tenure he wrote three
original tactical papers on Reconnaissance Troops Tactical handling, Reconnaissance support groups, and the
RFS (Reconnaissance, Fire support and Security) Concept. His writings were published in the Pakistan Armys
prime journals; Pakistan Army Journal, Citadel Journal of Command and Staff College Quetta. His
recommendations regarding bifurcation of officer corps into command and staff cadre advanced in 1998 and
were later accepted. In addition, his recommendation of grouping various corps into army commands was
advanced in an article published in the Citadel Journal in 1998, and accepted around 2005. He wrote Pakistan
Armys first tactical paper on Tactical handling of Reconnaissance Troops in 1986 which is now being
incorporated in the Pakistan Armys most important general staff publication " The Armored Regiment in
Battle". He wrote The Essential Clausewitz in 1993, Sepoy Rebellion of 1857-59 in 1998 , Pakistan Army till
1965 in 1999, Taliban War in Afghanistan (2009) and Development of Taliban Factions in Afghanistan and
Pakistan (2010). He served as Assistant Editor of Defence Journal, Executive Editor of globe and Founder
Editor of Journal of Afghanistan Studies. He is an associate of the think tanks ORBAT and Alexandrian Defense
group. He is an expert in social impact and environmental assessment carried out various LARP surveys (social
impact, environmental surveys undertaken before a infrastructure project) for Asian Development Bank and
World Bank projects. He has lectured at various think tanks and organizations worldwide and shares his
knowledge without any honorarium and at zero financial benefits. He has carried out various oil, gas and power
transmission line surveys in West Asia. He is a one time Assistant Editor of the Defence Journal, Executive
Editor Globe, and Editor Journal of Afghanistan Studies. Feedback is welcome at e mail address
L19aircraft@gmail.com .

Major Agha H Amin (Retired)

Long War Journal a U.S. site claims:

"Since the beginning of the year, Pakistani authorities have carried out multiple raids against
[AQIS]. However, according to Pakistani officials, AQIS2 has relocated a significant portion
of its operations into Helmand Province, Afghanistan. The move by AQIS was made in
anticipation of the Pakistani militarys Operation Zarb-e-Azb3, an offensive that began in
June 2014. The offensive has targeted Al Qaeda and affiliated jihadist groups, including
several from Central Asia. Some of these same organizations have helped fuel the Talibans
advances in Afghanistan this year."

2 al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)[ (Arabic: ,

Jamat Qidat al-Jihd f Shibh al-Qrrah al-Hindyah, "Organisation of the Base of Jihad
in the Indian Subcontinent") or Qaedat al-Jihad in the Indian Subcontinent is an Islamist
militant organization which aims to fight the Governments of Pakistan,[4] India, Myanmar and
Bangladesh[6] in order to establish an Islamic state. The militant group has also stated its
intentions to attack American targets in the Indian Subcontinent.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Qaeda_in_the_Indian_Subcontinent

Source: Pakistan Defense Forum 2009

District map of FATA4 (Dark Gray) & NWFP5 (Light Gray)
FIRST MISTAKE AND A MAJOR ONE
There is no al Qaeda in FATA.
3 Operation Zarb-e-Azb (Urdu: ALA-LC: pressan arb-i Ab pronounced [pren zrbe zb]) is a joint military offensive being conducted by the Pakistan Armed Forces against various militant
groups, including the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the East Turkestan
Islamic Movement, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, al-Qaeda, Jundallah and the Haqqani network.[5] The operation was
launched on 15 June 2014 in North Waziristan along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border as a renewed
effort against militancy in the wake of the 8 June attack on Jinnah International Airport in Karachi, for which the
TTP and the IMU claimed responsibility.[34][35] Part of the ongoing war in North-West Pakistan, up to 30,000
Pakistani soldiers are involved in Zarb-e-Azb, described as a "comprehensive operation" to flush out all foreign

North Waziristan

and local militants hiding in

. The operation has received widespread support from
the Pakistani political, defence and civilian sectors. As a consequence, overall security situation improved and
terrorist attacks in Pakistan dropped to a six-year low since 2008 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Zarbe-Azb

The Pakistani operation is against the TTP6 (Pakistan Taliban) a puny outfit of Pakistani
insurgents who are fighting against Pakistani State in revenge for unilateral unprovoked
Pakistanis attack on FATA as part of Musharraf7 deception plan to deceive Americans.
The Haqqani8 Group is a Pakistani State Proxy9 proxy long tasked with attacking CIA and
U.S. Intel support contractors and was shifted out of FATA to the Pakistani mainland before
the Pakistani Army action started in 2014 in FATA. It is well known that his family was based
in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan and surrounding country, and one of his sons was
actually killed in Bhara Kahu, a suburb of Islamabad.
4The tribal areas comprise seven tribal agencies and six small frontier regions
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan . The Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Pakistan are
areas bordering Afghanistan, outside the four provinces, comprising a region of some 27,220 km (10,507
sq mi). The area has Afghanistan to the north-west, North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) to the east and
Balochistan to the south. The area is colloquially referred to as Pakistan's Tribal Belt or Pak tribal belt...The
geographical arrangement of the seven Tribal Areas in order from north to south is: Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber,
Orakzai, Kurram, North Waziristan, South Waziristan. The geographical arrangement of the six Frontier
Regions in order from north to south is: Peshawar, Kohat, Bannu, Lakki Marwat, Tank, Dera Ismael Khan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federally_Administered_Tribal_Areas. With the annexation of Punjab in 1849,
British India reached the frontier (tribal areas). The British had no immediate interest in these barren tribal
territories, which were mostly claimed by Afghanistan. But to keep the tribes at bay, they were forced to launch
a big military operation on the frontier almost every year for the next half-century. This was tiresome and
expensive, so around the time the frontier was demarcated in 1893, the strategy changed, and the British began a
concerted effort to buy off tribal elders, or maliks (often called the Maliki System). In egalitarian Pushtun
society, where prestige is won in battle, these grey-beards initially had limited authority. But through British
patronage it grew, creating for the colonialists a pliable tribal elite. With this toehold established, the British then
took a firmer grip on the area, developing a system of indirect rule that has hardly changed since. This did not
stop a Wazir of North Waziristan, Mirza Ali Khan, known as the Faqir of Ipi, was a harder case. From 1936 to
1947 he led a freedom struggle that at one point sucked in 40,000 British Indian troops, and was quelled only by
brutal aerial bombing. Khan was also backed by the Afghans, and was allegedly in contact with Nazi Germany.
In recent times, The Meshud tribes maliks, widely reviled as corrupt puppets of the British Raj, according to
a high-up Mehsud, were again the first victims. Across South Waziristan over 600 have been murdered (The
Economist, 2009).

5The North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) (Urdu: huml marib sarhad sbha )
(other informal names include Sarhad, Frontier Afghania, Pakhtunkhwa, Pashtunistan and Pakhtunistan) is one
of the four provinces of Pakistan.[2] The majority of the population of the NWFP are Pashtuns, locally referred to
as Pakhtuns, and other smaller ethnic groups. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North-West_Frontier_Province

6 Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP; Urdu:

" ; Taliban Movement of

Pakistan"), alternatively referred to as the Pakistani Taliban, is an umbrella organization of

various Islamist militant groups based in the northwestern Federally Administered Tribal
Areas along the Afghan border in Pakistan. Most, but not all, Pakistani Taliban groups
coalesce under the TTP. In December 2007 about 13 groups united under the leadership of
Baitullah Mehsud to form the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan. Among the Tehrik-i-Taliban
Pakistan's stated objectives are resistance against the Pakistani state, enforcement of their
interpretation of sharia and a plan to unite against NATO-led forces in Afghanistan

It is very interesting that Bill Roggio and his site makes all kind of spicy claims while we in
Af Pak dont see these on the ground .
I (Major Amin) was in Shorawak, Kandahar Province, Afghanistan in October 2015 in
connection with a Narcotics consultancy survey and did not see any such gigantic al Qaeda
camps as purported by the Long War Journal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tehrik-i-Taliban_Pakistan Fighting Pakistan Govt.

7 Pervez Musharraf (Urdu: ; born 11 August 1943), is a Pakistani politician and a retired four-star
army general who tenured as the tenth President of Pakistan from 2001 until tendering resignation to avoid
impeachment in 2008.Prior to seizing the control of the government through a military coup d'tat in 1999,
Musharraf was serving as the Chairman joint chiefs as well as the Chief of army staff the appointments he
secured in 1998.
8The Haqqani Networks nucleus comes from the Haqqanis Zadran tribe (Amin, pers. comm.) The Haqqanis
are active in Khost, Paktika, and Paktia (See Afghan Provinces Map). They also have (as noted no longer there
based in Afghanistan) a base in Pakistans North Waziristan Agency (See Pakistan Map) opposite the Afghan
province of Khost. Haqqani had a history of being extremely close to Pakistans Inter Service Intelligence
Agency (ISI) as late as 2001The Haqqani-led faction, which is blamed for many of the deadliest attacks on
U.S. troops in eastern Afghanistan, works so closely with al-Qaeda that distinctions between the groups may be
irrelevant (Amin, Osinski & DeGeorges, 2008).

9Pakistani non-state military proxies system. These included Mulla Omar, Haqqani,
Hekmatyar (Hikmatyar), Wahhabis in the Province of Konar Afghanistan and the Bajur
Agency of Pakistan.

Source: Global Security, 2009

Provinces of Afghanistan
Yes there were camps connected with the Afghan Taliban10, also Proxies of the Pakistani state
but no such al Qaeda camp as the Long War Journal claims.

10Afghan Taliban is a group controlled by Pakistans Inter Service Intelligence Agency (ISI).. The Afghan
Taliban consists three groups -Mulla Omar (deceased) or Quetta Shura based in Balochistan largest group,
Haqqani (smallest group) based in North Waziristan, and Pishin Nushki Zhob and Hekmatyars Hizb-e Islami
group with bases in Pakistani NWFP.

The Afghan Taliban, a Pakistani State proxy consists of Quetta Shura based in Balochistan
largest group, Haqqani (smallest group) formerly based in North Waziristan FATA but now
in Afghanistan, and Pishin Nushki Zhob and Hekmatyars (Hikmatyar) Hizb-e Islami group
with bases in Pakistani KP, (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province KP, formerly North-West
Frontier Province (NWFP) primarily in the Dir, Chitral & Peshwar Districts. The AntiPakistani State Taliban is called the Pakistan Taliban or TTP and is based in the KP Province
of Pakistan and in the FATA region. Some TTP are now in Afghanistan, mostly in Kunnar,
Khost and Nangrahar provinces as a result of the 2014 operation carried out by the Pakistani
Army against the TTP in the North Waziristan Agency (NWA) of FATA. The Drawing by
Amin.

Have Roggio, or Thomas Joscelyn, described as a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies11 and the Senior Editor for The Long War Journal, ever travelled
from NWA (North Waziristan Agency) of FATA, Pakistan to Shorawak in Kandahar Province,
Afghanistan - a distance of 900 to 1000 km over very high mountain ranges and innumerable
Pakistani and Afghan checkposts and military deployments and the omnipotent US hi-tech
presence in Afghanistan? I dont think they have! For if they had done so, they would have
thought twice about writing the absolute nonsense that they are writing.
There is much exaggeration in what is going on in the AfPak region.
Pakistanis, Americans involved in the AfPak region - above all Bill Roggio and the Long War
Journal are exaggerating the threat in that area for obvious reasons:

Pakistanis to get more U.S. aid or leverage or political mileage.

Americans for same reasons (war is big business) and
Bill Roggio and Long War Journal to make their site spicy and to attract readers and
to sell.

Two small examples here:

11 The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) is a conservative think tank based in Washington,
D.C., focusing on national security and foreign policy. Its political leanings have been described variously as
either nonpartisan or neoconservative. FDD holds events throughout the year, including its annual
Washington Forum, briefings on Capitol Hill, expert roundtables for public officials, diplomats, and military
officers, book releases, and panel discussions and debates within the policy communityThe Long War Journal
is a FDD project dedicated to reporting the Global War on Terror launched by the United States and its allies
following the attacks of September 11, 2001. Under the direction of FDD senior fellows Bill Roggio and
Thomas Joscelyn, this website covers stories about countries such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, and
Iraq and follows the actions of al Qaeda and its
affiliates.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_for_Defense_of_Democracies

In the operation against Baitullah Mehsud12 the most impregnable TTP leader Pakistan
Armys 14 Division just suffered 4 killed casualties in 2007-8.
My own regiment 11 Cavalry (FF) served in Waziristan, Khyber and Tirah Agencies a
citadel of Al Qaeda as per Long War Journal and suffered Nil CASUALTIES
ZERO!

And this al Qaeda previously in FATA, exaggerated by the Long War Journal, killed a puny
number of U.S. soldiers in Afghan Provinces adjacent to FATA. Just see how many U.S.
soldiers were killed from 2001 to 2015 in Khost, Paktika and Paktia provinces, Afghanistan
next to FATA as compared to Helmand province, Afghanistan next Balochistan, Pakistan
where the Afghan Taliban have their main base:
In the Southeastern of region comprising Khost, Pakitika and Paktia
provinces, Afghanistan (opposite tribal areas, Pakistan Taliban/TPP) opposite which drone strikes were undertaken in Pakistan, a total of 196
U.S. troops were killed from 2001 to 2015, while in the Southwest region
comprising Kandahar, Helmand, Nimroz, Zabol, Oruzgan, provinces
Afghanistan (Afghan Taliban out of Balochistan, Pakistan) - opposite of
which no drone strikes were undertaken in Pakistan a total of 906 U.S.
soldiers were killed from 2001 to 2015, as per www.casualties.org.

12 Baitullah Mehsud (Pashto,Urdu: ;) c. 1974 c. 5 August 2009) was a leading militant in

Waziristan, Pakistan, and the leader of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). He formed the TTP from an alliance
of about five militant groups in December 2007. He is thought by U.S. military analysts to have commanded up
to 5,000 fighters and to have been behind numerous attacks in Pakistan including the assassination of Benazir
Bhutto which he and others have denied. Disagreement exists over the exact date of the militant's death.
Pakistani security officials initially announced that Baitullah Mehsud and his wife were killed on 5 August 2009
in a U.S. Central Intelligence Agency drone attack in the Zangar area of South Waziristan. Interior Minister
Rehman Malik delayed giving official confirmation and asked for patience and an announcement by Inter
Services Public Relations (ISPR) or other agencies. Kafayat Ullah, a TTP source, also announced the death of
the militant in the strike,[7] as did his deputy Faqir Mohammed. Later Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan commander
Hakimullah Mehsud denied previous TTP announcements and said Mehsud was in good health.[9] Major General
Athar Abbas, ISPR spokesman, and Robert Gibbs of the White House said his death could not be confirmed,
U.S. National Security Adviser James L. Jones also claimed that there was "pretty conclusive" evidence that
proved Baitullah Mehsud had been killed and that he was 90% sure of it. On 23 August 2009, Hakimullah
Mehsud and Wali-ur-Rehman telephoned the BBC to say that the Baitullah Mehsud had died on 23 August 2009
due to injuries sustained during the 5 August attack On 30 September 2009, the BBC received a video that
showed the body of Mehsud. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baitullah_Mehsud

13

13 The Frontier Corps (Urdu: ( ) reporting name: FC), is a provincial auxiliary force
part of the Paramilitary forces of Pakistan. The Frontier Corps is recruited mostly from the
tribal areas along the western borders and are the direct counterparts to the Rangers of the
eastern provinces. The Frontier Corps comprises two major subdivisions: FC NWFP
(stationed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, formerly known as North-West Frontier
Province), and includes the Federally Administered Tribal Areas) and FC Balochistan
(stationed in Balochistan province). Each subdivision is headed by a seconded inspector
general, who is a Pakistan Army officer of at least major-general rank, although the force
itself is under the jurisdiction of the Interior Ministry.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frontier_Corps . The FC is 95% Pashtun (Taliban ethnic group)
so this makes it relatively easy for the Afghan Taliban to cross the border unimpeded (Amin,
pers. Comm.).

QUESTION IS WHY THESE EXAGGERATED CLAIMS.

It is possible that there is a drone lobby link here so as to float a new drone contract in the
USA to attack the mysterious and fictitious Al Qaeda in Shorawak, with huge kickbacks and
profits made, with the U.S. public further terrified that there is a great monster in
SHORAWAK, which I could not find in my 15 days stay in Shorawak!
1. Roggios website has donors and it is not there for charity or philanthropy.
2. There is a huge lobby in the U.S. that wants to exaggerate the threats so that the U.S.
public can be made more servile and subjected to more severe laws so that the huge
Military Industrial Complex linked to defence contracts can sell their hardware.
3. Same is case in Pakistan where the Pakistan Army is exaggerating all kinds of threats
so that it can dominate the state already heavily crushed by its iron heel.
The hard fact is that 90% of all insurgents are supported by Pakistani State in the AfPak
region just as 90% of the Syrian insurgents are proxies of the USA, Saudi Arabia, Turkey or
Jordan.

TAIL PIECE
In early October a Pakistani journalist disciple of Bill Roggio took same Taliban from NWA14
to Kunduz and I had to write to Pakistans premier newspaper DAWN about it: Pakistans
Afghan predicament, by Zahid Hussain, Oct 7 2015 http://www.dawn.com/news/1211334 &
http://epaper.dawn.com/DetailNews.php?StoryText=07_10_2015_008_004
There Bill Roggios are everywhere including Pakistan! PLEASE SEE MAP BELOW TO
UNDERSTAND

14 North Waziristan (Urdu: Shomali Wairistan), abbreviated as NWA, is the

northern part of Waziristan, a mountainous region of northwest Pakistan, bordering
Afghanistan and covering 11,585 square kilometres (4,473 sq mi). Waziristan comprises the
area west and south-west of Peshawar between the Kurram River (Tochi River) to the north
and the Gomal River to the south, forming part of Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal
Areas (FATA). Miranshah is capital of North Waziristan. Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa lies
immediately to the east. The region became an independent tribal territory in 1893, remaining
outside of the British empire and Afghanistan. Tribal raiding into British territory was a
constant problem for the British, requiring frequent punitive expeditions between 1860 and
1945. The region became part of Pakistan upon its independence in 1947.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Waziristan

15

15Gulbuddin Hekmatyar (Pashto: ; Persian: ; born 1947) is the former Prime

Minister of Afghanistan and founder and active leader of the Hezb-e Islami political party, and a designated
"global terrorist" by the United States.[1] [2] After escaping from prison in Afghanistan in 1973, he moved to
Pakistan. When the Soviet war in Afghanistan began in 1979, the CIA began funding his rapidly growing Hezbe Islami mujahideen organization through the ISI (The Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence more
commonly known as just the Inter-Services Intelligence or simply by its initials ISI) is the premier military
operated intelligence service of Pakistan).Following the stepping down of Afghan President Najibullah in 1992,
Hekmatyar and other warlords began a civil war in Afghanistan, which led to the deaths of around 50,000
civilians in Kabul alone. In the meantime, Hekmatyar was promoted to becoming Prime Minister of Afghanistan
from 1993 to 1994 and again briefly in 1996. This was followed by the Taliban takeover of Kabul and
Hekmatyar's escape to Iran's capital Tehran for safety. One of the most controversial of the mujahideen
commanders, he has been accused of spending "more time fighting other Mujahideen than killing Soviets
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulbuddin_Hekmatyar

The Afghan Taliban consists of three groups - Mullah Omar (deceased) largest group,
Haqqani (smallest group) And Hikmatyar.