BIHAR ELECTIONS: AN INEXPERT ANALYSIS

The most significant conclusion to be drawn from the recently concluded Bihar election is
that it was not won by the JDU-RJD-Congress combine (Grand Alliance, or GA): it was lost
by an overconfident and arrogant BJP. To selectively quote Shakespeare, the Bihar elections
turned out to be a tale full of sound and fury although the result signified a great deal. The
election was touted in the media as a Battle of the Giants. Media headlines screamed photo
finish and down to the wire. News anchors almost wet themselves in their excitement.
Exit polls variously predicted a victory of Modis gang (NDA) or Nitish Kumars coalition
(GA). One thing they all agreed on that was that it would be a close contest. They all wound
up with egg on their collective faces.
In the end, it turned out to be a David versus Goliath tussle. Mighty Mody was laid low by a
Kumar (of questionable DNA). He left the field licking his wounds; and no doubt pondering
on where to lay the blame. Anywhere but on himself, to be sure. For the first time in recent
memory, Amit Shah looked less smug; although he managed to drum up a smile as he
presented a bouquet to the Big Boss. In fact, bouquets were the order of the day as Modi
arrived for the BJP Parliamentary Board meeting the day after the results. One would have
got the impression that the Ministers were felicitating a conquering hero instead of...well, you
know. But of course, in the BJP parivar, only victories are credited to the Great Leader.
Defeats occur because his lieutenants let him down. In any case, any despondency Modi
might have felt will soon be obliterated in a few days, when 60,000 adoring Non-Resident
Indians welcome him with shouts of Modi! Modi! at Wembley Stadium in London.
Adulation is the stuff of life to him.
So what went wrong for the BJP? Primarily the immutable conviction among the Modi
bhakts that as long as big man was around to address mass rallies and work the Modi magic,
the party could not lose. (Delhi was an aberration, for after all, you could not expect those
Capital snobs to empathise with a humble chai-wallah). What they and the Big Chief
perhaps did not appreciate is that even the most impressive magic trick loses its charm if it is
repeated ad nauseum. The rabble rousing oratory, elaborate hand gestures and sarcastic jabs at
political opponents, that Modi had perfected into an art form became predictable and sad with
repeated overuse. Moreover, after 18 months of grand promises, reality had begun to sink into
the minds of the great unwashed Indian public. The sabka saath, sabka vikas mantra begins
to sound a bit hollow when tur dal costs Rs.200 a kilogram.
Intentionally or by a fortuitous coincidence, the Nitish-Lalu duo hit Modi in his most
vulnerable spot - his ego. Modis early rallies were on the right track. He talked about
development and jobs and imminent prosperity - and the crowds responded enthusiastically.
But then Lalu took personal digs at him and he could not stomach that. He shed his
statesman-like Prime Minister avatar and reverted to the street fighter he started out as.
During the latter half of the election cycle, Narendra Modi was sounding more and more like
a grass roots politician - complete with name calling and thinly disguised innuendos. He wore
his membership of the Extremely Backward Class (EBC) as a badge of honour and attempted
to cash in on it at every opportunity. In my opinion, the Prime Minister of an important
country - particularly one who is trying to project himself as an international statesman to the
world community - should not be lowering the dignity of his high office by exploiting his
caste for perceived electoral gains. Even Amit Shah stated at an election rally that "BJP will
pick up OBC, EBC issues better because PM is from that class." Amitbhai in fact, went one

further, by invoking dire consequences of a BJP defeat that, according to him, would cause
celebratory fireworks to be burst in Pakistan. Significantly, "sabka saath, sabka vikas" mantra
seemed to have been put into cold storage. On the one hand, PM Modi is attempting to
portray India as a modern, progressive nation and inviting the international community to
invest in the country. And then, he and his top deputy are shamelessly playing the caste card
for the sake of votes. If Modi wants to project himself as a development oriented leader, he
needs to discard the "humble chaiwallah" tag that helped to get him elected, but is no longer
relevant. He is no longer a party leader, but the Prime Minister of the entire country and
accordingly, he should hold himself above petty politics.
So there you have it. A Prime Minister who came to power on a platform of development and
a promise (to paraphrase Donald Trump) to make India great again, squandered his political
capital on an ill-conceived political strategy. He descended to the old school style of politics
where the purpose is to defame and ridicule your opponents. Thus he called Lalu Prasad a
shaitan presiding over a jungle raj, took exception to Nitish Kumars DNA brandished
pieces of paper during his rallies to sneer at how venal and untrustworthy the leaders of the
GA were; and in the process, he lost the plot. He virtually handed over the election to Nitish
and Lalu on a platter. To be fair, Modi should not take the entire blame for the poll debacle.
His moronic ministers and inflammatory henchmen played their part by harping on beef bans
and playing the Hindutva card to the hilt - thereby strengthening the perception that the BJP
was heavily influenced by the extreme right wing Rashtriya Sevak Sangh (RSS). To their
credit, the Bihar electorate refused to be cowed down by the venomous rhetoric. It would
be premature to state that the master strategist has lost his chutzpah, but it would serve him
well to do some serious introspection.
So whats next for the BJP and its guiding light? The near total rout of the BJP in the Bihar
election has serious implications for PM Modi personally. For the past two years, Modi has
been able to exert absolute control over his ministers and BJP leaders because he impressed
up them that whatever they may think about him and his policies, they absolutely need him to
win elections. Now that the people of Bihar have busted that myth, Modi may face
uncomfortable questions from his own party members. Some may even become emboldened
to criticise him openly. In fact, BJP icons like L K Advani amd Murli Manohar Joshi have
publicly voiced their displeasure. Amit Shah, in particular, is likely to come under heavy fire.
Many senior BJP leaders consider him to be an upstart who was made party president, mainly
because of his close association with Modi during his years as the Gujarat CM. Now that his
much vaunted organizational skills have yielded negative results, the knives will be out for
him. Incidentally, Modi is the most powerful PM India has had since Indira Gandhi. If he
wanted to, he could have shut up his loud mouthed Ministers and Hindutva hotheads in no
time. Hitherto, he chose not to do so, perhaps for perceived electoral gains in Bihar. That
gambit has failed miserably. Perhaps Modi will now put those fanatics in their place after
realising that they are dragging him and the BJP down.
In news just in, it seems Modi has got the message loud and clear. The PM has announced an
increase in Foreign Direct Investment across several sectors. He has acceded to multinational companies long standing wishes, such as FDI in single brand retail. Hopefully, Modi
has finally realised that Hindutva politics does not have much resonance among a majority of
the population. Much as Modis natural inclination may be to oblige his mentor, the RSS, he
may realise that the government must distance itself from any talk about a Hindu Rashtra. If
this is indeed the case, we may still see the India Modi promised during the Lok Sabha
elections.