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India business saves 3QFY15 but cant prevent forecast cuts. A disappointing
3QFY15 and subdued prognosis on Africa drive a 3-4% cut in consolidated EBITDA and
8-16% in consolidated EPS forecasts for FY2016/17E. Our India business estimates are
broadly unchanged. We roll over our SOTP to Dec 2016E from Mar 2016E; upside from
rollover is lost to EBITDA cuts and we cut our TP on the stock to `420 (from `430). BUY
stays primarily on the back of inexpensive valuations even as Idea remains our preferred
idea in the sector.
C o mpan y d ata an d valuatio n summary
Bharti Airtel
Stock data
52-week range (Rs) (high,low)
420-282
Market Cap. (Rs bn)
1,457.9
Shareholding pattern (%)
Promoters
65.4
FIIs
17.2
MFs
2.5
Price performance (%)
1M
3M
12M
Absolute
2.2
(5.2) 16.0
Rel. to BSE-30
(1.4)
(8.2) (18.5)
Forecasts/Valuations
EPS (Rs)
EPS growth (%)
P/E (X)
Sales (Rs bn)
Net profits (Rs bn)
EBITDA (Rs bn)
EV/EBITDA (X)
ROE (%)
Div. Yield (%)
2015
2016E
2017E
15.0
15.6
17.9
79.6
4.4
14.3
24.4
23.3
20.4
926.5 1,012.7 1,093.3
59.8
62.5
71.4
310.6
344.3
382.3
7.6
6.7
5.9
9.6
9.3
10.1
0.5
0.9
1.2
Rohit Chordia
rohit.chordia@kotak.com
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0885
Abhas Gupta
Rollover to Dec 2016E valuation aids target price, which still gets cut to `420 (from `430)
abhas.gupta@kotak.com
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0881
We have cut our SOTP-based end-Dec 2016E target price on the stock to `420 (from `430
earlier). Our SOTP bakes in `75/share value destruction at the equity level from Africa.
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Exhibit 1: Key changes to Bharti earnings model, March fiscal year-ends, 2015-17E
C o n s o lid ated
Revenues (Rs mn)
EBITDA (Rs mn)
EBIT (Rs mn)
Recurring EPS (Rs/share)
EBITDA margin (%)
In d ia/SA wireles s
Revenues (Rs mn)
EBITDA margin (%)
EBITDA (Rs mn)
In d ia wireles s metric s
Subs (mn)
Volumes (bn min)
RPM (paise/min)
ARPU (Rs/sub/month)
MO U (min/sub/month)
Capex (Rs mn)
O f which
Network capex
Spectrum capex
Afric a wireles s
Revenues (US$ mn)
EBITDA (US$ mn)
EBITDA margin (%)
Capex (US$ mn)
20 15 E
Revis ed
20 16 E
20 17E
20 15 E
Earlier
20 16 E
20 17E
926,544
310,637
153,666
15.0
1,012,740
344,329
164,855
15.6
1,093,264
382,350
184,751
17.9
939,598
316,301
155,751
14.4
1,041,726
356,332
175,235
17.1
1,143,572
400,107
201,179
21.1
33.5
34.0
35.0
33.7
34.2
35.0
539,019
35.8
193,045
598,412
36.2
216,835
656,537
37.0
243,207
541,721
35.7
193,341
603,397
36.1
217,652
666,023
36.9
245,595
222
1,078
47.94
202
421
302,732
237
1,118
51.44
209
406
105,167
251
1,151
54.79
215
393
94,654
217
1,078
48.09
204
425
173,888
227
1,118
51.78
217
419
138,035
236
1,151
55.50
230
414
128,363
82,732
220,000
105,167
-
94,654
-
67,379
106,509
98,035
40,000
88,363
40,000
4,483
1,024
22.9
852
4,593
1,054
23.0
781
4,762
1,138
23.9
738
4,637
1,117
24.1
788
5,037
1,251
24.8
781
5,462
1,398
25.6
792
20 15 E
C h an g e (%)
20 16 E
(1.4)
(1.8)
(1.3)
3.5
-14 bps
(2.8)
(3.4)
(5.9)
(8.4)
20 17E
(4.4)
(4.4)
(8.2)
(15.5)
-21 bps
-2 bps
(0.5)
12 bps
(0.2)
(0.8)
16 bps
(0.4)
(1.4)
16 bps
(1.0)
2.1
(0.3)
(1.4)
(1.1)
74.1
4.3
(0.7)
(3.8)
(3.1)
(23.8)
6.4
(1.3)
(6.3)
(5.1)
(26.3)
7.3
7.1
(8.8)
(15.8)
-190 bps
0.0
(12.8)
(18.6)
-170 bps
(6.8)
22.8
106.6
(3.3)
(8.3)
-125 bps
8.1
Bharti Airtel
Telecom
In contrast to Africa, the management seemed upbeat on India wireless, especially the
data opportunity.
Defending its slower-than-Idea volume and revenue growth in India, Bharti management
essentially indicated that the two companies are pursuing different strategies and the
company is internally extremely satisfied with the performance of the India wireless
business. We agree that Bhartis performance on the India wireless side has been solid in
the past few quarters in its own right; however, volume growth differential (on voice and
especially data) versus Idea is too glaring to dismiss, in our view.
Bhartis management, like Ideas, reiterated that it does not foresee a need for
meaningful fresh 3G/4G cell sites for the next few years. This is in line with our view that
3G/4G cell site additions would be primarily in the form of loading.
Bharti invested US$285 mn equity into the Africa business through the Mauritian
subsidiary. India cashflows continue to get ploughed into Africa.
Bharti has three licenses in Africa coming up for renewal in FY2016E Nigeria,
Madagascar and Kenya. Even as the management indicated that it does not expect these
renewals to cost a meaningful sum, we would closely watch out for developments on this
front. Spectrum renewals do throw up surprises, as we have seen in India.
The company indicated that business in South Asia, especially Bangladesh, is now stable
after the company-initiated clean-up in 2QFY15 impacted performance in the past two
quarters.
Exhibit 2: Bharti valuation - sum of the parts
Dec-2016
India business valuation
Core business (ex-towers, ex-Africa)
Enterprise value (Rs mn) - end-March
EBITDA (ex-Bharti Infratel) (Rs mn)
EV/EBITDA (X)
Bharti Infratel valuation
Equity value based on KIE target price (Rs mn)
Bharti's shareholding (%)
Infratel net debt
EV (Rs mn)
India EV (Rs mn)
Net debt (Rs mn)
Equity value - India business (Rs mn)
Equity value - India business (Rs/share)
585,590
74.9
(52,798)
491,171
2,188,098
218,324
1,969,773
493
284,159
59,823
4.75
582,000
(297,841)
(75)
418
1,696,927
271,508
6.25
15
(13)
420
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Exhibit 3: Bharti - key assumptions driving our model, IFRS, March fiscal year-ends (Rs mn)
2012
India wireless
End-period subs ('000)
Total traffic (bn min)
RPM (Rs/min)
ARPU (Rs/sub/month)
MOU (Rs/sub/month)
EBITDA margin (%)
Africa wireless
End-period subs ('000)
ARPU (US$/sub/month)
MOU (min/sub/month)
RPM (US$ cents/min)
EBITDA margin (%)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
181,279
888
0.436
188
431
33.9
188,220
968
0.431
186
436
32.6
205,519
1,030
0.445
194
436
34.4
221,719
1,078
0.479
202
421
37.4
237,019
1,118
0.514
209
406
37.6
251,419
1,151
0.548
215
393
38.4
53,140
7.1
123
5.8
26.5
63,718
6.3
132
4.8
26.2
69,443
5.6
138
4.1
26.1
77,243
5.1
134
3.8
22.9
84,443
4.7
133
3.6
23.0
91,043
4.5
134
3.4
23.9
Revenues
EBITDA (A)
EBITDA margin (%)
Capex (B)
Cash taxes (C)
Net interest cost (D)
Cash funding gap = A - B - C - D
Jun-12
1,066
275
25.8
(119)
(42)
(169)
(55)
Sep-12
1,097
298
27.2
(210)
(38)
(170)
(120)
Dec-12
1,133
300
26.5
(160)
(52)
(145)
(57)
Mar-13
1,120
285
25.4
(235)
(45)
(153)
(148)
Jun-13
1,062
283
26.6
(165)
(74)
(59)
(15)
Sep-13
1,119
301
26.9
(154)
(60)
(65)
22
Dec-13
1,165
300
25.8
(140)
(78)
(117)
(35)
Mar-14
1,145
290
25.3
(176)
(71)
(122)
(79)
Jun-14
1,164
283
24.3
(160)
(67)
(124)
(68)
Sep-14
1,140
270
23.7
(265)
(56)
(132)
(183)
Dec-14
1,103
241
21.9
(284)
(20)
(167)
(230)
Notes:
(a) We have computed interest as EBIT less PBT; this includes some non-operating cash expenses charges below EBITDA.
(b) We have not included changes in working capital in the above computations for lack of data.
Exhibit 5: Bharti - condensed financials, IFRS, March fiscal year-ends (Rs mn)
2012
Profit and loss statement
Revenues
EBITDA
EBIT
PBT
Recurring PAT
Recurring EPS (Rs/share)
Balance sheet
Total Equity
Borrowings
Other liabilities
Total equity and liabilities
Net fixed assets
Net intangibles
Cash and equivalents
Other assets
Total assets
Cash flow statement
Operating cash flow
Capex
Free cash flow
Acquisitions
Borrowings
Others
Total change in cash & equivalents
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
714,587
237,122
103,441
65,256
42,593
11.2
803,254
248,704
93,740
49,896
22,757
6.0
857,461
277,770
121,274
72,894
33,292
8.3
926,544
310,637
153,666
112,778
59,807
15.0
1,012,740
344,329
164,855
115,497
62,457
15.6
1,093,264
382,350
184,751
123,319
71,417
17.9
533,808
690,232
346,576
1,570,616
674,932
660,889
39,234
195,561
1,570,616
544,103
729,608
399,521
1,673,232
688,430
680,808
89,094
214,900
1,673,232
639,662
758,958
433,152
1,831,772
596,429
809,716
156,541
269,086
1,831,772
692,974
954,055
464,823
2,111,851
625,426
1,128,798
66,595
291,031
2,111,851
734,953
904,055
482,806
2,121,814
651,521
1,103,241
55,689
311,363
2,121,814
778,190
854,055
496,487
2,128,732
662,665
1,062,444
69,744
333,879
2,128,732
192,345
(135,386)
56,959
(45,373)
73,524
(62,419)
22,691
268,393
(135,364)
133,029
(53,017)
39,376
(69,528)
49,860
249,471
(292,200)
(42,729)
(34,229)
144,405
67,447
235,255
(380,050)
(144,795)
20,000
210,000
(175,151)
(89,946)
283,078
(190,011)
93,067
(50,000)
(53,973)
(10,906)
314,322
(167,947)
146,375
(50,000)
(82,321)
14,055
Bharti Airtel
Telecom
Exhibit 6: Bharti - segmental financials, IFRS, March fiscal year-ends (Rs mn)
Revenues
Wireless - India and South Asia
Telemedia services
Enterprise
Passive Infra
Others
Wireless - Africa
Gross revenues
Intersegment eliminations
Net revenues
EBITDA
Wireless - India and South Asia
Telemedia services
Enterprise
Passive Infra
Others
Wireless - Africa
Intersegment eliminations
Total EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Wireless - India and South Asia
Telemedia services
Enterprise
Passive Infra
Others
Wireless - Africa
Total EBITDA margin
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
403,091
37,272
44,542
95,109
15,990
198,267
794,271
(79,684)
714,587
440,235
38,158
53,202
103,154
19,735
240,439
894,923
(91,669)
803,254
484,231
39,352
63,361
51,086
23,872
272,512
934,414
(76,953)
857,461
539,019
44,424
66,529
54,519
27,930
273,597
1,006,019
(79,476)
926,544
598,412
49,293
69,523
60,606
32,398
289,376
1,099,609
(86,869)
1,012,740
656,537
54,015
72,304
67,563
36,610
300,011
1,187,040
(93,776)
1,093,264
136,690
15,813
8,313
35,943
(9,215)
52,790
(3,212)
237,122
135,137
16,204
9,361
38,561
(10,011)
63,146
(3,694)
248,704
158,600
14,771
13,807
22,850
1,177
71,279
(4,714)
277,770
193,045
17,326
14,570
25,466
4,469
62,517
(6,755)
310,637
216,835
19,471
15,226
28,337
5,346
66,412
(7,297)
344,329
243,207
21,336
15,835
31,830
6,224
71,703
(7,783)
382,350
33.9
42.4
18.7
37.8
(57.6)
26.6
33.2
30.7
42.5
17.6
37.4
(50.7)
26.3
31.0
32.8
37.5
21.8
44.7
4.9
26.2
32.4
35.8
39.0
21.9
46.7
16.0
22.9
33.5
36.2
39.5
21.9
46.8
16.5
23.0
34.0
37.0
39.5
21.9
47.1
17.0
23.9
35.0
Notes:
(a) Indus accounting has been changed to equity accounting from proportionate JV consolidation from FY2014.
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
190,948
95.2
2,728
95.61
3.2
200
455
0.440
193,457
95.1
2,508
95.41
3.2
192
437
0.440
198,513
95.3
5,057
95.26
2.7
195
434
0.448
205,519
96.0
7,006
95.10
2.4
196
437
0.449
209,411
95.0
3,892
94.95
2.7
202
435
0.465
211,752
95.8
2,341
94.68
3.1
198
418
0.472
217,215
96.1
5,463
94.63
2.7
202
416
0.486
258,380
166
0.366
83.1
251,322
161
0.368
83.6
255,030
162
0.372
83.0
264,843
162
0.372
82.6
270,827
166
0.381
81.8
263,905
158
0.377
79.8
267,485
157
0.377
77.4
16.9
8.3
8.2
0.4
16.4
6.7
9.4
0.3
17.0
6.1
10.6
0.3
17.4
5.6
11.5
0.3
18.2
5.5
12.4
0.3
20.2
5.4
14.5
0.4
22.6
6.0
16.2
0.4
25,875
6,238
28,403
128
392
0.327
28,039
7,438
34,624
129
429
0.300
31,898
8,806
39,932
137
450
0.304
35,605
10,255
47,655
133
464
0.286
39,320
12,535
55,610
139
495
0.280
40,108
15,445
67,668
150
563
0.267
42,249
16,940
77,281
170
622
0.274
134,736
25,604
282,406
135,412
26,616
272,979
137,069
28,179
279,871
138,755
31,301
287,897
139,894
34,564
301,594
141,290
38,055
295,645
142,898
41,850
305,283
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
28,039
14.5
34,624
21.9
429
30.0
(8.2)
129
10,384
11.9
102.0
9.4
31,898
16.1
39,932
15.3
450
30.4
1.3
137
12,131
16.8
109.2
10.6
35,605
17.3
47,655
19.3
464
28.6
(5.8)
133
13,639
12.4
94.7
11.5
39,320
18.8
55,610
16.7
495
28.0
(2.0)
139
15,593
14.3
68.1
12.4
40,108
18.9
67,668
21.7
563
26.7
(4.9)
150
18,047
15.7
73.8
14.5
42,249
19.5
77,281
14.2
622
27.4
2.6
170
21,144
17.2
74.3
16.2
7,438
26.5
8,806
27.6
10,255
28.8
12,535
31.9
15,445
38.5
16,940
40.1
Disclosures
"I, Rohit Chordia, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the
subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report."
70%
60%
50%
40.0%
40%
30%
23.2%
20%
19.4%
17.4%
10%
2.6%
3.2%
BUY
ADD
1.3%
1.3%
REDUCE
SELL
0%
Other definitions
Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analysts overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the following
designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.
Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and target price, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulation(s)
and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
CS = Coverage Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended coverage of this company.
NC = Not Covered. Kotak Securities does not cover this company.
RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and price target, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient
fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock
and should not be relied upon.
NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.
NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
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Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives as well as non-investment-grade securities - give rise to substantial risk and
are not suitable for all investors. The material is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it
should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. We endeavor to update on a
reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, but regulatory, compliance, or other reasons may prevent us from doing so. We and our affiliates,
officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material, may from time to time have long or short
positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. Kotak Securities Limited and its non US affiliates
may, to the extent permissible under applicable laws, have acted on or used this research to the extent that it relates to non US issuers, prior to or immediately
following its publication. Foreign currency denominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or
price of or income derived from the investment. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies affectively
assume currency risk. In addition options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Please ensure that you have read and understood the current derivatives
risk disclosure document before entering into any derivative transactions.
Kotak Securities Limited established in 1994, is a subsidiary of Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited. Kotak Securities is one of Indias largest brokerage and distribution
house.
Kotak Securities Limited is a corporate trading and clearing member of Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE), MCX
Stock Exchange Limited (MCX-SX), United Stock Exchange of India Limited (USEIL) and a dealer of the OTC Exchange of India (OTCEI). Our businesses include stock
broking, services rendered in connection with distribution of primary market issues and financial products like mutual funds and fixed deposits, depository services
and Portfolio Management.
Kotak Securities Limited is also a depository participant with National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and Central Depository Services (India) Limited
(CDSL).Kotak Securities Limited is also registered with Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority as Corporate Agent for Kotak Mahindra Old Mutual Life
Insurance Limited and is also a Mutual Fund Advisor registered with Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI)
We hereby declare that our activities were neither suspended nor we have defaulted with any stock exchange authority with whom we are registered in last five
years. However SEBI, Exchanges and Depositories have conducted the routine inspection and based on their observations have issued advise letters or levied minor
penalty on KSL for certain operational deviations. We have not been debarred from doing business by any Stock Exchange / SEBI or any other authorities; nor has
our certificate of registration been cancelled by SEBI at any point of time.
We offer our research services to primarily institutional investors and their employees, directors, fund managers, advisors who are registered with us
Details of Associates are available on our website ie www.kotak.com
Research Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company. We or our associates have received compensation from the subject
company in the past 12 months. We or our associates have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months.
We or our associates have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12
months. We or our associates have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services
from the subject company in the past 12 months. We or our associates have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party
in connection with the research report.
Research Analyst or his/her relatives may have financial interest in the subject company. Kotak Securities Limited or its associates have financial interest in the
subject company. Research Analyst or his/her relatives does not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the
month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report: Kotak Securities Limited does not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more
securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report. Associates of Kotak Securities
Limited may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of
publication of Research Report. Subject Company has been client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at www.nseindia.com and http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock-quotes. (Choose a
company from the list on the browser and select the three years icon in the price chart).
Kotak Securities Limited. Registered Office: 27 BKC, C 27, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (E), Mumbai 400051. CIN: U99999MH1994PLC134051,
Telephone No.: +22 43360000, Fax No.: +22 67132430. Website: www.kotak.com. SEBI Registration No: NSE INB/INF/INE 230808130, BSE INB 010808153/INF
011133230, OTCINB 200808136, MCXSX INE 260808130/INB 260808135/INF 260808135, AMFI ARN 0164 and PMS INP000000258. NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-23-97.
CDSL: IN-DP-CDSL-158-2001. Compliance Officer Details: Mr. Sandeep Chordia. Call: 022- 6605 6825 or Email: sandeep.chordia@kotak.com