Yemen is turning into Saudi Arabias Vietnam

Fig
hters loyal to Yemens government celebrate after receiving three armored personnel
carriers from the United Arab Emirates in the southwestern city of Taiz. (Reuters)

By Hugh Naylor-November 13

BEIRUT Eight months after launching a war in Yemen, Saudi Arabia appears
trapped in a protracted and devastating conflict that is straining relations with its
allies, intensifying internal power struggles and emboldening its regional rival,
Iran, analysts say.
Since March, the key U.S. ally has led a coalition of mostly Gulf Arab countries and
Yemeni fighters in a military campaign to drive out Iranian-aligned rebels who
seized the capital, Sanaa, and swaths of the Arabian Peninsula country.

But the coalition appears increasingly hobbled by divisions and unable to find a
face-saving way to end the costly conflict.
The rebels, known as Houthis, still control much of Yemens north. And in southern
areas where the coalition has driven them out, lawlessness has spread as attacks
linked to an Islamic State affiliate wreak havoc.
This war is draining the Saudis militarily, politically, strategically, said Farea al-

Muslimi, a Yemen analyst at the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center.

The problem is, theyre stuck there.

[Who are the Houthis?]

Saudi Arabia is the regions Sunni Muslim
powerhouse and fears that Shiite Iran is
using the Houthis, who are also Shiite, as
proxies in Yemen.
A Houthi fighter is buried in Yemen's
capital, Sanaa, on Nov. 4. (Khaled
Abdullah/Reuters)

The rebels toppled the Yemeni government

in February, forcing President Abed Rabbo

Mansour Hadi to flee to Saudi Arabia. The Saudi-led coalition which includes
Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates responded with airstrikes and then a
ground offensive in an effort to return Hadis government to power.
Speaking by telephone, Ahmed Asseri, a spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition, said
it is too early to make judgments about the campaign.
But as the conflict drags on, mounting civilian casualties and a worsening
humanitarian crisis have drawn criticism from international rights groups and
lawmakers in the United States, an arms supplier for the key oil producer. More

than 5,400 people have been killed since the intervention began, and U.N. officials
warn of famine in the desperately poor country of 25 million people.
On Tuesday, British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond called for an investigation
into whether the use of British weapons sold to Saudi Arabia had violated
international law.

Terms & Feedback

[Yemens capital could be next target for Saudi-led ground forces]

In October, 13 congressmen sent a letter to President Obama calling on the
administration to work with Saudi Arabia to protect innocent lives and reduce the
potential for backlash against U.S. interests.
The United States has provided logistical and intelligence assistance to the Saudis
in their campaign in Yemen. U.S. intelligence officials have expressed concern that
the conflict has strengthened Yemens al-Qaeda affiliate.
The United States has also expressed concern about the civilian toll but has
refrained from directly criticizing Saudi Arabia for the attacks, including one on the
Yemeni port city of Mokha that killed 65 people in July.

The United States has no role in targeting decisions made by the coalition in

Yemen, the National Security Council said in a statement issued last month.
Inside the kingdom, analysts say, the war has intensified apparent power struggles
within the secretive and opaque royal family.
King Salman, who took power in January, has rattled the kingdom with shake-ups,
including the appointment of his 30-year-old son to deputy crown prince and
defense minister, placing him in charge of the Yemen campaign. An economy
battered by low oil prices has added to the friction. Dissenters within the royal
family have released several open letters criticizing the king.
[Saudi royal writes letters calling for regime change]
Its all somewhat murky, of course, but the war is generating this competition for

power, said Yezid Sayigh, a Middle East analyst at the Carnegie Middle East
Center.
The relatively small number of Saudi troops fighting in Yemen estimated at
several hundred signals Saudi rulers heightened concern about the potential
domestic blowback over casualties from the war, Sayigh said.
Despite requests from Saudi Arabia, allies such as Egypt and Pakistan have
refused to send in ground forces. Several thousand UAE troops have taken the lead
on the ground in Yemen.
But allied Yemeni fighters say that the coalition has deployed far too few soldiers,
causing a land offensive that started in June to falter.
We haven't received enough support from the coalition, said Aref Jamel, a senior

commander of a militia group that is fighting Houthi rebels in Taiz, Yemens third-

largest city.
The battle for Taiz has been especially brutal, with rebels indiscriminately shelling
civilian areas and cutting off supplies of water and food to the city. Anti-Houthi
militias in the city, which is about 160 miles south of the capital, say they have been
left on their own in the fight.
In Marib province, also within striking distance of Sanaa, coalition forces appear to
be mired in back-and-forth battles. In September, a Houthi-fired missile killed at
least 60 Saudi, UAE and Bahraini troops in the province. But it is unclear whether a
deployment of reinforcement troops from Qatar reported by Qatari media after
the missile incident actually arrived, said Ahmed al-Zayedi, a pro-coalition
tribesman in Marib.
There isnt enough support from the coalition, and there is a lot of frustration

among anti-Houthi tribes in the area, he said.

Perhaps more alarming for Saudi Arabia is the lawlessness plaguing Aden, the key
southern port city that coalition ground forces seized from the rebels in June.
[Fighting in Yemen is creating a humanitarian crisis]
In October, an Islamic State affiliate claimed responsibility for bombings that
targeted coalition troops as well as a hotel used as a headquarters for the Hadi
government. Government ministers fled the city after the attacks.
Meanwhile, conservative Islamists including some who openly fly al-Qaedas flag
have stormed universities and markets in the city to demand the separation of
men and women in public spaces, residents say.
Its chaos here, said Wadhah al-Yemen al-Hariri, 48, a civil engineer who lives in

Aden.
Saudi and UAE troops in the city, he said, keep out of the public eye. We dont
understand what their role is here, Hariri said.
It is unclear how Saudi Arabia can end its military involvement without coming off
as the loser. A ground assault to wrest Sanaa and northern areas from rebel control
could produce many coalition casualties. U.N.-backed peace efforts, moreover, have
repeatedly failed while rebels are escalating the fight by launching cross-border
attacks into southern Saudi Arabia.
Christopher Davidson, an expert on Persian Gulf countries at Durham University in
Britain, said Iranian leaders view the Saudi troubles in Yemen as a strategic gain in
the countries competition for influence in Syrias civil war and elsewhere in the
region. Iran backs the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while Saudi
Arabia supports the opposition.
In Tehran, Saudi Arabia is seen as unable to defeat ragtag Houthi fightersdespite its
advanced, Western-made arms, Davidson said.
As far as Iran is concerned, this war demonstrates that Saudi Arabia just isnt as

formidable a counterweight as many people had thought, he said.

Ali al-Mujahed in Sanaa, Yemen, and Carol Morello in Washington contributed to
this report.
Read more:
In parts of Yemen, rebels have lost control. No one else has it yet.
Quietly, al-Qaeda offshoots expand in Yemen and Syria

Todays coverage from Post correspondents around the world

Hugh Naylor is a Beirut-based correspondent for The Post. He has

reported from over a dozen countries in the Middle East for such
publications as The National, an Abu Dhabi-based newspaper, and
The New York Times.
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