System Analysis and Design

Contents
Abstract: .................................................................................................................................................3
Introduction: ..........................................................................................................................................3
Theory: ...................................................................................................................................................3
Gathering Data: ......................................................................................................................................3
Method:..................................................................................................................................................3
Result:.....................................................................................................................................................4
Gather Data-2006...................................................................................................................................4
Gather Data-2007...................................................................................................................................4
Model Test-2006 ....................................................................................................................................4
Correlation of data 2006 ...................................................................................................................4
Causation ...........................................................................................................................................4
Calculation of cusum-2006.................................................................................................................5
Liner Model -2006: ............................................................................................................................5
Model Testing Data 2006 ...................................................................................................................5
Model Test-2007: ...................................................................................................................................6
Correlation .........................................................................................................................................6
Causation ...........................................................................................................................................6
Calculation of Cusum-2007 ................................................................................................................7
Liner Model 2007 ............................................................................................................................7
Model Testing Data 2007 ...................................................................................................................7
Prediction Check 2006-2007 ..................................................................................................................8
Product Wise Analysis: ...........................................................................................................................9
Calculation for Camping Equipment ..................................................................................................9
Calculation of Golf Equipment .........................................................................................................10
Calculation of Outdoor Protection ...................................................................................................10
Calculation for Personal Accessories ...............................................................................................10
Year 2006 .........................................................................................................................................11
Data of Camping Equipment ............................................................................................................11
Line Graph ........................................................................................................................................11
Data of Golf Equipment ...................................................................................................................12
Line Graph ........................................................................................................................................12
Data of Outdoor Protection .............................................................................................................12
Line Graph ........................................................................................................................................12
Data of Personal Accessories ...........................................................................................................12
Line Graph ........................................................................................................................................12
Year 2007 .........................................................................................................................................13
Line Graph ........................................................................................................................................13
Line Graph ........................................................................................................................................13
Compare Between product wise revenue in year 2006 and 2007 ......................................................14
Data of camping Equipment ............................................................................................................14
Line Graph ........................................................................................................................................14
Line Graph ........................................................................................................................................14
Line Graph ........................................................................................................................................14
Line Graph ........................................................................................................................................15
1
Discussion:............................................................................................................................................15
Discussion-2006 data.......................................................................................................................15
Discussion-2007 data.......................................................................................................................16
Finding the problem ........................................................................................................................16
Solve the Problem ...........................................................................................................................16
Conclusion: ...........................................................................................................................................17
List of reference: ..................................................................................................................................18
Appendix ..............................................................................................................................................19
Data 2006 .........................................................................................................................................19
Data 2007 .........................................................................................................................................21
Cusum of Data 2006 .........................................................................................................................22
Model Test 2006 ..............................................................................................................................24
Cusum calculation of data 2007 .......................................................................................................26
Model Test 2007 ..............................................................................................................................27
Prediction Test 2006-2007 ...............................................................................................................28
Camping Equipment .........................................................................................................................30
Calculation of Golf Equipment .........................................................................................................30
Calculation of Outdoor Protection ...................................................................................................31
Calculation of Personal Accessories .................................................................................................31
Data for Camping Equipment ...........................................................................................................34
Data of camping Equipment ............................................................................................................37
Abstract:
I want study on few product lines about how much revenue they generate in a year and what is the gross
profit and target. I am working on a Sport shop about those product normally I have to consider the unit
cost which is called cost of good sole (Unit cost is manufacturing cost include direct materials, direct
labour and variable overhead cost.), Unit price is the selling price of the good, Quantity is the amount of
sold product, Revenue is the amount generate from sell and Gross profit is simple profit also the target
profit. From past data like 2006 we work with it and can draw a model, from the model we can predict
the data of the next year. Then we can cross check the data of next year and depend on that we can take
decision for further task. For example we may can do for increase the profit try to decries the cost price
or keep the cost price same increase the unit price. Also we can do some other task like if sale is good we
may push some other product or if sale is fall then we can promote same product in different way.
Because I have few variables to deal with I can use the Linear Regression for my model.
Introduction:
For decision support system data modelling is very important part. A good model can help you to make
profitable the business. From a good model also we can do assumption, prediction and then from that we
can take a long term decision. For that we can save our time or if any problem occurs then we can find
out and deal with it from beginning and solve it before the problem occurs. I am working with sale and
gross profit and how they react on each other. I want to draw a model for them, form the model we can
predict the future sale and can take any further action if needed.
Sale and profit have few more related data like unit cost, unit price, revenue etc for that normally we
have to chose linear model. Its a very common model to deal with this sort of problem because it
support multi variable (Independent value) and this analysis give the outputs of the prediction values of
the dependent variables.
Its a mathematical problem data model. And we can use the multiple liner model like y = U (X1, X2Xn).
Theory:
To model my study I am using all mathematical equation like linier equation, residual calculation,
correlation of independent and dependent variables, cusum for find out the break point.
Gathering Data:
I collect some data of a shop which is sealing camping equipments, golf equipments, personal
accessorises etc. I have their Unit cost, Unit price, Amount of sold product, Total revenue on particular
product and Gross profit in a time period. From this data we can tell my independent data are unit cost,
unit price, quantity sold, revenue and dependent data is gross profit. Here gross profit the final measure.
Unit price, unit cost, quantity and revenue are the nominal data and gross profit is interval data. All my
data are real number data only quantity is integer.
Method:
This data collected from a sport shop of North America named Aarhus sport. Collected by IBM for their
analysis and make a sample data warehouse to support their BI application IBM cognos. And it sent by email Mr.O.S. Khan (IBM, Canada, 2010).
3
My model is an empirical model. And we already got our variables. I chose this model because of my
experiment support my model. And I have to do few experiments to reach my goal. Like correlation,
cusum, model test applying linier regression. Find out the predict value of 2006 data then compare with
2007 data and try to find out the problems.
Result:
The methods I will apply for my experiments are:
Gather Data-2006
The set of data will get in Appendix.
Gather Data-2007
Model Test-2006
Correlation of data 2006
Correlation to identify the relation between the gathered data of 2006. Mathematical Formula of
Correlation- C(x, y) = CORREL(X(x1xn), Y (y1...yn)) Let say unit cost is x1, unit price is x2, quantity is x3,
revenue is x4 and gross profit is y. Then using the formula of correlation we got (x1, y) = 0.636; (x2, y) =
0.654; (x3, y) = 0.094; (x4, y) = 0.979; Here we can see only X4 is highly correlated with Y, X3 not
correlated well and X2 and X1 is average.
For study I am taking only one sample which is highly correlated. Because I believe other data may effect
on our study and can drive wrongly.
Causation
They have structural similarity between them. If revenue is high normally profit will be high as well its a
common sense. Like if the wind is high then boat go faster the direction of wind.
For better understanding we test the cusum of the data. From the graph we can understand we do not
need to piece wise model. Because the line is straight down direction there is no up and down and no
wave.
Calculation of cusum-2006
Comments: Here is no pick point so we dont need to consider piece wise model
Fig-CUSUM of gathered data 2006.
100,000.00
y = -5872.1x - 48650
0.00
0
20
40
60
80
100
R2 = 0.9755
-100,000.00
-200,000.00
Series1
-300,000.00
Linear (Series1)
-400,000.00
-500,000.00
-600,000.00
-700,000.00
Liner Model -2006:

Model Testing Data 2006
X4 and Y Scatter Graph-2006

60,000.00
y = 0.4763x - 502.71
50,000.00
R2 = 0.959
40,000.00
30,000.00
Series1
20,000.00
Linear (Series1)
10,000.00
0.00
0.00
-10,000.00
50,000.00
100,000.00 150,000.00
Now from the Method-1 value and Gross Profit we can draw a line diagram to observe that the whole
year how its gone or how match with predict value the actual value.
Line Graph-2006
60,000.00
50,000.00
40,000.00
30,000.00
Series1
Series2
20,000.00
10,000.00
0.00
1
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93
-10,000.00
Model Test-2007:
Correlation
Let say unit cost is x1, unit price is x2, quantity is x3, revenue is x4 and gross profit is y. Then using the
formula of correlation we got (x1, y) = 0.398; (x2, y) = 0.393; (x3, y) = 0.281; (x4, y) = 0.969; Here we can
see only X4 is highly correlated with Y, X3, X2 and X1 are not correlated well.
For study I am taking only one sample which is highly correlated. Because I believe other data may effect
on our study and can drive wrongly.
Causation
The same cause as I said before.
Here we also calculation of the cusum of the data. And result also same like before straight down there is
no up and down and no wave.
Calculation of Cusum-2007
Comments: Here is no pick point so we dont need to consider piece wise model
Fig-CUSUM of gathered data 2007

0.000
0
20
40
60
-50000.000
y = -5042.8x - 18960
R2 = 0.9852
-100000.000
Series1
-150000.000
Linear (Series1)
-200000.000
-250000.000
-300000.000
Liner Model 2007

Model Testing Data 2007
X4 and Y Scatter Graph-2007

30000.00
y = 0.3839x + 456.53
R2 = 0.9389
25000.00
20000.00
15000.00
Series1
Linear (Series1)
10000.00
5000.00
0.00
0.00
20000.00 40000.00 60000.00 80000.00
Now from the Method-1 value and Gross Profit we can draw a line diagram to observe that the whole
year how its gone or how match with predict value the actual value.
Line Graph-2007
60000.000
50000.000
40000.000
30000.000
Series2
Series1
20000.000
10000.000
0.000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46
Prediction Check 2006-2007

For better understand we can cross check the tow years data let see the both years prediction data and
make a graph from that
Line Graph-2006 and 2007 of Prediction

60000.00
50000.00
40000.00
30000.00
Series1
20000.00
Series2
10000.00
0.00
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91
-10000.00
Product Wise Analysis:

Now we have to find out why this problem occurred. For that we have to analyze product wise sale. Lets
do the calculation
Calculation for Camping Equipment
X-Y Scatter Graph for 2006
30,000.00
y = 0.3889x + 636.51
R2 = 0.9893
25,000.00
20,000.00
Series1
15,000.00
Linear (Series1)
10,000.00
5,000.00
0.00
0.00
20,000.00 40,000.00 60,000.00 80,000.00
30000.00
y = 0.381x - 341.77
R2 = 0.9627
25000.00
20000.00
Series1
15000.00
Linear (Series1)
10000.00
5000.00
0.00
0.00
20000.00 40000.00 60000.00 80000.00
Calculation of Golf Equipment

60,000.00
y = 0.4924x + 1363.6
R2 = 0.9935
50,000.00
40,000.00
Series1
30,000.00
Linear (Series1)
20,000.00
10,000.00
0.00
0.00
50,000.00
100,000.00
150,000.00
Calculation of Outdoor Protection


3,000.00
y = 0.6375x - 39.917
R2 = 0.9996
2,500.00
2,000.00
Series1
1,500.00
Linear (Series1)
1,000.00
500.00
0.00
0.00
1,000.
00
2,000. 3,000.
00
00
4,000.
00
5,000.
00
Calculation for Personal Accessories

16,000.00
14,000.00
y = 0.3703x + 470.44
R2 = 0.8933
12,000.00
10,000.00
Series1
8,000.00
Linear (Series1)
6,000.00
4,000.00
2,000.00
0.00
0.00
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
10
18000.00
16000.00
y = 0.4273x + 74.997
R2 = 0.9105
14000.00
12000.00
10000.00
Series1
Linear (Series1)
8000.00
6000.00
4000.00
2000.00
0.00
0.00
10000.00 20000.00 30000.00 40000.00
Now we can draw product wise the line graph for 2006 and 2007
Year 2006
Data of Camping Equipment
Line Graph
30,000.00
25,000.00
20,000.00
Series1
15,000.00
Series2
10,000.00
5,000.00
0.00
1
11
Data of Golf Equipment

Line Graph
60,000.00
50,000.00
40,000.00
Series1
30,000.00
Series2
20,000.00
10,000.00
0.00
1
Data of Outdoor Protection

Line Graph
3,000.00
2,500.00
2,000.00
Series1
1,500.00
Series2
1,000.00
500.00
0.00
1
Data of Personal Accessories

Line Graph
16,000.00
14,000.00
12,000.00
10,000.00
Series1
8,000.00
Series2
6,000.00
4,000.00
2,000.00
0.00
1
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76
12
Year 2007
Line Graph
30000.00
25000.00
20000.00
Series1
15000.00
Series2
10000.00
5000.00
0.00
1
There is no Data for Golf Equipment and Outdoor Protection in 2007

Line Graph
18000.00
16000.00
14000.00
12000.00
10000.00
Series1
8000.00
Series2
6000.00
4000.00
2000.00
0.00
1
3 5
7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43
13
Compare Between product wise revenue in year 2006 and 2007

Data of camping Equipment
Line Graph
80, 000. 00
70, 000. 00
60, 000. 00
50, 000. 00
Ser i es1
40, 000. 00
Ser i es2
30, 000. 00
20, 000. 00
10, 000. 00
0. 00
1

Line Graph
120, 000. 00
100, 000. 00
80, 000. 00
Ser i es1
60, 000. 00
Ser i es2
40, 000. 00
20, 000. 00
0. 00
1

Line Graph
4,500.00
4,000.00
3,500.00
3,000.00
2,500.00
Series1
2,000.00
Series2
1,500.00
1,000.00
500.00
0.00
1
14

Line Graph
45,000.00
40,000.00
35,000.00
30,000.00
25,000.00
Series1
20,000.00
Series2
15,000.00
10,000.00
5,000.00
0.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76
Discussion:
Discussion-2006 data
From the X and Y scatter graph we got the equation of y = 0.4763x-502.71. This equation we use for the
value of Method-1 which is predict value for the product. If we consider the first value from the table we
can see
Revenue=
Gross Profit=
Predicted value=
Residual=
8326.62
3972.18
3463.26
508.92
We can come to a conclusion that our predicted value profit for that product is 3463.26 and we made
3972.18 so we over made 508.92. The same way if we take a negative value Residual like -1883.81 here
our Predicted value was 6628.19 and actual value was 4744.38 so we didnt meet the target. Also the
value of R square = 0.959 say that this is the best fitted value for the model.
From the Line Graph-2006 we can see our prediction and goal is running well because they lying on each
other even some times is doing better than what was predicted.
Normally we can think that the next year will be the same ratio of revenue and gross profit. Unless any
unexpected problem occurs.
15
Discussion-2007 data
From the graph we got the equation of y = 0.3839x + 456.53. This equation we use for the value of
Method-1 which is predict value for the product. If we consider the first value from the table we can see
Revenue=
Gross Profit=
Predicted value=
Residual=
34759.64
9343.40
13800.76
-4457.36
We can come to a conclusion that our predicted value profit for that product is 13800.76 and we made
9343.40 so we less of target is -4457.36. So we didnt meet the target. Also the value of R square = 0.9389
say that this is the best fitted value for the model.
From the Line graph of 2007 we can come to a conclusion that this year target value always far from
actual value. That means we didnt meet the target. Thats mean something going wrong in business.
Finding the problem
To find out the problem we did some test like we compare the prediction of 2006 and 2007 and from the
graph we can understand there are few big differences sometime of the prediction. And also in 2007
there are minimum sales of products.
So from here we get a clear view about the problem one is our prediction was wrong for year 2007 and
also total amount of sale also less then last year.
Now we can go some deep down that why our prediction went wrong then from the product wise
analysis of 2006 we can see all the product revenue is fine with the target and from the line graph we can
see all of them laying on each other. Our assumption was same like 2006 for 2007. But in 2007 we can
see from the data analysis tow product line had completely zero sale. And other two lines were ok not
perfect. Sometime we can see the gap from the line graph.
From the product wise revenue analysis we can see in 2007 two line was zero that we said before and
camping equipment was start good but then stop for any reason and personal accessories also start good
but total amount of sales is less then 2006.
Solve the Problem
Now we know our problem we find it out from our research. First problem was we did wrong prediction
for 2007. If we go throw the research we can see we made prediction for 2007 sale depends on 2006 sale
but for good assumption we should take previous few more years for our research then we can get a
clear idea about the sale of the shop and make prediction. So now we have to collect last five years data
and have to make a new research.
Another problem was over all sale of 2007 was low than 2006. From the product wise analysis we can see
in 2006 sealing product line was four but in 2007 tow line was completely off. We have to find out the
reason why two lines had zero sales. For this we can check the supply chain management of the shop that
we had stock of the product or not. We can make another survey on that area to find out the product
demand and also can make another internal analysis on unit price and cost price is there any thing wrong.
16
From the product wise analysis we can see from the line graph of revenue of 2006 and 2007 we can see
camping equipment and personal accessorise they star well even some time better than 2006 but
suddenly stop. That means less quantity of sale for whole year. For this we can make another analysis like
month wise product sale if we see in 2007which month is not common with 2006 then that month we
can offer some special promotion on that product or find out another best fitted solution.
The main problem is overall sale is low for 2007 so we have find out the cause for that and depend on
that we can make further decision.
And in my point of view that would be another scope for further research on this topic as said few before.
Conclusion:
From this report we find out few problems and discuss about the solution. Its about one shop may we
can take it globally may its a problem for specific product or economic recession that decrease general
peoples spending power or some unexpected problem occurs which make effect on the global revenue.
17
List of reference:
Dr. Uma Mohan. (2010) System Analysis and Design-ii [online] Available From: STM student web
portal/MSc IT-2/SAD-2 [Accessed 29 Jan 2010]
Mark Tranmer and mark Elliot. (2010) Multiple Linear Regression. [Online] Available From:
http://www.ccsr.ac.uk/publications/teaching/mlr.pdf [Accessed 16 February 2010]
O.S.Khan (2010) RE: Beta_data. Personal E-mail to: MR I Uddoulla, 23 Feb 2010.
Social Research Methods. (2010) Research Method: Knowledge Base. [Online] Available From:
http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/index.php [Accessed 20 Feb 2010]
18
Appendix
Data 2006
Month
January
Product line
Unit cost
Unit price
Quantity
Revenue
Gross
profit
January
Camping
Equipment
Camping
Equipment
Camping
Equipment
Camping
Equipment
Camping
Equipment
Camping
Equipment
Golf Equipment
2.80
10.64
752
7,843.36
5,737.76
January
Golf Equipment
6.00
12.81
848
10,642.40
5,554.40
January
Golf Equipment
341.60
696.00
98
64,797.60
31,320.80
January
Golf Equipment
610.00
1,359.72
49
63,294.77
33,404.77
January
Outdoor Protection
1.85
5.00
784
3,920.00
2,469.60
January
40.00
85.56
42
3,521.70
1,841.70
39.31
70.00
89
6,230.00
2,731.41
49.69
110.00
17
1,870.00
1,025.27
20.92
30.55
433
13,229.20
4,173.53
8.56
12.78
3,171
38,495.94
11,352.18
45.00
98.01
39
3,822.39
2,067.39
50.60
110.00
81
8,910.00
4,811.40
39.51
65.00
22
1,430.00
560.78
30.39
50.30
27
1,358.10
537.57
20.68
30.70
349
10,714.30
3,496.98
67.08
120.30
76
9,142.80
4,044.72
105.56
196.00
101
19,612.00
8,970.68
7.50
16.29
449
7,314.21
3,946.71
March
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Camping
Equipment
Golf Equipment
221.00
461.00
229
103,517.55
52,908.55
March
Golf Equipment
420.00
889.02
47
39,694.79
19,954.79
March
Golf Equipment
28.40
76.86
386
28,185.72
17,223.32
March
Outdoor Protection
2.83
6.00
37
222.00
117.29
March
Outdoor Protection
14.04
35.00
49
1,715.00
1,027.04
March
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
28.60
43.85
248
10,874.80
3,782.00
12.09
20.15
653
13,157.95
5,263.18
39.51
65.00
169
10,985.00
4,307.81
34.46
62.65
223
13,970.95
6,286.37
20.67
30.70
364
11,174.80
3,650.92
8.56
12.78
2,793
33,907.02
9,998.94
January
January
January
January
January
January
January
January
January
January
February
February
February
February
February
February
March
March
March
March
March
March
5.24
12.53
831
8,326.62
3,972.18
0.85
3.66
1,182
4,243.38
3,238.68
15.93
23.80
642
14,971.44
4,744.38
15.62
35.09
117
4,023.63
2,196.09
41.18
73.50
342
23,881.86
9,798.30
150.00
265.14
246
61,962.48
25,062.48
19
Accessories
March
March
March
March
April
April
April
April
April
April
April
April
May
May
May
June
June
June
June
June
June
June
June
July
July
July
July
July
July
August
August
August
August
August
September
September
September
September
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
53.00
96.44
121
11,086.02
4,673.02
73.44
116.73
225
24,950.25
8,426.25
87.04
167.20
13
2,173.60
1,042.08
103.34
188.00
11
2,068.00
931.26
24.32
40.50
171
6,925.50
2,766.78
39.27
70.00
95
6,650.00
2,919.35
44.61
87.00
72
6,264.00
3,052.08
34.39
62.65
110
6,891.50
3,108.60
20.52
30.70
475
14,582.50
4,835.50
152.36
260.00
27
7,020.00
2,906.28
103.58
188.00
37
6,956.00
3,123.54
60.02
104.60
10
1,046.00
445.80
78.11
167.50
68
11,390.00
6,078.52
40.45
85.00
169
14,365.00
7,528.95
126.83
234.50
25
5,848.00
2,688.28
28.55
43.85
260
11,401.00
3,978.00
22.89
40.50
338
13,689.00
5,952.18
39.33
65.00
28
1,820.00
718.76
44.59
87.00
126
10,962.00
5,343.66
34.44
62.65
538
33,705.70
15,176.98
20.76
30.40
363
11,035.20
3,499.32
235.99
358.00
31
11,098.00
3,782.31
120.94
229.60
99
22,730.40
10,757.34
12.05
20.15
404
8,140.60
3,272.40
24.39
40.50
200
8,100.00
3,222.00
39.26
65.00
134
8,710.00
3,449.16
42.59
86.00
202
17,372.00
8,769.83
34.67
62.65
263
16,476.95
7,358.74
22.19
33.15
539
17,867.85
5,907.44
18.78
40.70
189
7,692.30
4,142.88
90.24
145.00
51
7,395.00
2,792.76
138.12
249.00
30
7,470.00
3,326.40
29.00
47.30
32
1,513.60
585.60
42.22
73.00
101
7,373.00
3,108.78
12.52
21.25
519
11,028.75
4,530.87
38.24
67.55
92
6,214.80
2,688.24
42.06
86.65
163
13,888.10
7,069.70
90.55
145.00
77
11,165.00
4,192.65
20
September
September
September
October
October
October
October
October
October
October
October
November
November
November
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
150.42
270.20
43
11,618.60
5,150.54
28.28
47.30
294
13,906.20
5,591.88
109.19
199.80
115
22,977.20
10,419.58
24.80
38.30
61
2,336.30
823.50
28.12
43.85
225
9,866.25
3,539.25
24.81
42.88
434
18,606.75
7,837.66
23.11
34.42
626
20,929.10
6,966.86
126.74
236.07
122
28,787.20
13,336.52
71.16
136.90
65
8,898.50
4,273.10
106.21
200.00
93
18,600.00
8,726.70
41.88
73.00
127
9,271.00
3,952.24
27.97
43.85
321
14,075.85
5,097.48
85.24
167.20
64
10,700.80
5,245.44
109.72
199.80
72
14,376.80
6,504.24
36.30
67.50
44
2,970.00
1,372.80
17.97
26.80
541
14,498.80
4,777.03
25.35
45.63
279
12,730.77
5,658.12
21.87
33.15
349
11,569.35
3,936.72
4.72
12.90
290
3,741.00
2,372.20
138.34
249.00
49
12,201.00
5,422.34
85.04
167.20
17
2,842.40
1,396.72
Data 2007
Month
Product line
January
Camping Equipment
January
January
Unit cost
Unit price
Quantity
Revenue
Gross
profit
$46.38
$66.77
548
$34,759.64
$9,343.40
Camping Equipment
$6.60
$19.29
1,720
$19,900.40
$8,548.40
Camping Equipment
$20.00
$31.55
205
$6,467.75
$2,367.75
January
Camping Equipment
$30.29
$55.24
94
$5,192.56
$2,345.30
January
Camping Equipment
$213.33
$370.86
202
$71,168.64
$28,075.98
January
Personal Accessories
$94.12
$182.67
103
$17,874.62
$8,180.26
January
$47.00
$92.29
53
$4,744.56
$2,253.56
January
$153.35
$235.00
37
$8,695.00
$3,021.05
January
$28.34
$47.30
225
$10,642.50
$4,266.00
February
$4.76
$12.90
804
$10,371.60
$6,544.56
February
$129.31
$239.30
44
$10,859.00
$4,862.34
February
$28.52
$47.30
228
$10,784.40
$4,281.84
March
$24.77
$42.88
650
$27,868.75
$11,768.25
March
$41.79
$85.77
351
$30,273.70
$15,568.40
March
$28.58
$47.30
372
$17,595.60
$6,963.84
March
$41.76
$73.00
176
$12,848.00
$5,498.24
April
$4.99
$12.90
530
$6,837.00
$4,192.82
April
$129.68
$239.30
13
$3,081.80
$1,422.00
April
$84.64
$167.20
32
$5,350.40
$2,641.92
April
$28.20
$47.30
47
$2,223.10
$897.70
21
May
$20.15
$30.50
67
$2,043.50
$693.45
May
$12.38
$21.25
90
$1,912.50
$798.30
May
$33.55
$62.65
213
$13,344.45
$6,198.30
May
$23.71
$35.05
622
$21,730.70
$7,043.95
June
$24.58
$38.30
276
$10,570.80
$3,786.72
June
$149.52
$270.20
39
$10,537.80
$4,706.52
June
$28.28
$47.30
243
$11,493.90
$4,621.86
June
$41.34
$73.00
141
$10,293.00
$4,464.06
July
$78.85
$169.00
52
$8,788.00
$4,687.80
July
$17.96
$26.80
716
$19,188.80
$6,329.44
August
18.78
40.70
189
7,692.30
4,142.88
August
90.24
145.00
51
7,395.00
2,792.76
August
42.22
73.00
101
7,373.00
3,108.78
September
38.24
67.55
92
6,214.80
2,688.24
September
42.06
86.65
163
13,888.10
7,069.70
September
28.28
47.30
294
13,906.20
5,591.88
September
109.19
199.80
115
22,977.20
10,419.58
October
24.80
38.30
61
2,336.30
823.50
October
71.16
136.90
65
8,898.50
4,273.10
October
106.21
200.00
93
18,600.00
8,726.70
October
41.88
73.00
127
9,271.00
3,952.24
November
27.97
43.85
321
14,075.85
5,097.48
November
85.24
167.20
64
10,700.80
5,245.44
December
17.97
26.80
541
14,498.80
4,777.03
December
25.35
45.63
279
12,730.77
5,658.12
December
21.87
33.15
349
11,569.35
3,936.72
December
4.72
12.90
290
3,741.00
2,372.20
December
85.04
167.20
17
2,842.40
1,396.72
Cusum of Data 2006

Gross
profit
Method 1
AVG
AVG-Y
Methid-2
3,972.18
7,210.86
11,955.24
14,151.33
23,949.63
49,012.11
54,749.87
60,304.27
91,625.07
125,029.84
127,499.44
129,341.14
132,072.55
133,097.82
137,271.35
148,623.53
150,690.92
155,502.32
156,063.10
156,600.67
160,097.65
164,142.37
173,113.05
177,059.76
6192.906
2,220.73
-3,238.68
-4,744.38
-2,196.09
-9,798.30
-25,062.48
-5,737.76
-5,554.40
-31,320.80
-33,404.77
-2,469.60
-1,841.70
-2,731.41
-1,025.27
-4,173.53
-11,352.18
-2,067.39
-4,811.40
-560.78
-537.57
-3,496.98
-4,044.72
-8,970.68
-3,946.71
2,220.73
-1,017.95
-5,762.33
-7,958.42
-17,756.72
-42,819.20
-48,556.96
-54,111.36
-85,432.16
-118,836.93
-121,306.53
-123,148.23
-125,879.64
-126,904.91
-131,078.44
-142,430.62
-144,498.01
-149,309.41
-149,870.19
-150,407.76
-153,904.74
-157,949.46
-166,920.14
-170,866.85
y
3,972.18
3,238.68
4,744.38
2,196.09
9,798.30
25,062.48
5,737.76
5,554.40
31,320.80
33,404.77
2,469.60
1,841.70
2,731.41
1,025.27
4,173.53
11,352.18
2,067.39
4,811.40
560.78
537.57
3,496.98
4,044.72
8,970.68
3,946.71
22
52,908.55
19,954.79
17,223.32
117.29
1,027.04
3,782.00
5,263.18
4,307.81
6,286.37
3,650.92
9,998.94
4,673.02
8,426.25
1,042.08
931.26
2,766.78
2,919.35
3,052.08
3,108.60
4,835.50
2,906.28
3,123.54
445.80
6,078.52
7,528.95
2,688.28
3,978.00
5,952.18
718.76
5,343.66
15,176.98
3,499.32
3,782.31
10,757.34
3,272.40
3,222.00
3,449.16
8,769.83
7,358.74
5,907.44
4,142.88
2,792.76
3,326.40
585.60
3,108.78
4,530.87
2,688.24
7,069.70
4,192.65
5,150.54
5,591.88
10,419.58
823.50
3,539.25
7,837.66
6,966.86
13,336.52
4,273.10
229,968.31
249,923.10
267,146.42
267,263.71
268,290.75
272,072.75
277,335.93
281,643.74
287,930.11
291,581.03
301,579.97
306,252.99
314,679.24
315,721.32
316,652.58
319,419.36
322,338.71
325,390.79
328,499.39
333,334.89
336,241.17
339,364.71
339,810.51
345,889.03
353,417.98
356,106.26
360,084.26
366,036.44
366,755.20
372,098.86
387,275.84
390,775.16
394,557.47
405,314.81
408,587.21
411,809.21
415,258.37
424,028.20
431,386.94
437,294.38
441,437.26
444,230.02
447,556.42
448,142.02
451,250.80
455,781.67
458,469.91
465,539.61
469,732.26
474,882.80
480,474.68
490,894.26
491,717.76
495,257.01
503,094.67
510,061.53
523,398.05
527,671.15
-52,908.55
-19,954.79
-17,223.32
-117.29
-1,027.04
-3,782.00
-5,263.18
-4,307.81
-6,286.37
-3,650.92
-9,998.94
-4,673.02
-8,426.25
-1,042.08
-931.26
-2,766.78
-2,919.35
-3,052.08
-3,108.60
-4,835.50
-2,906.28
-3,123.54
-445.80
-6,078.52
-7,528.95
-2,688.28
-3,978.00
-5,952.18
-718.76
-5,343.66
-15,176.98
-3,499.32
-3,782.31
-10,757.34
-3,272.40
-3,222.00
-3,449.16
-8,769.83
-7,358.74
-5,907.44
-4,142.88
-2,792.76
-3,326.40
-585.60
-3,108.78
-4,530.87
-2,688.24
-7,069.70
-4,192.65
-5,150.54
-5,591.88
-10,419.58
-823.50
-3,539.25
-7,837.66
-6,966.86
-13,336.52
-4,273.10
-223,775.40
-243,730.19
-260,953.51
-261,070.80
-262,097.84
-265,879.84
-271,143.02
-275,450.83
-281,737.20
-285,388.12
-295,387.06
-300,060.08
-308,486.33
-309,528.41
-310,459.67
-313,226.45
-316,145.80
-319,197.88
-322,306.48
-327,141.98
-330,048.26
-333,171.80
-333,617.60
-339,696.12
-347,225.07
-349,913.35
-353,891.35
-359,843.53
-360,562.29
-365,905.95
-381,082.93
-384,582.25
-388,364.56
-399,121.90
-402,394.30
-405,616.30
-409,065.46
-417,835.29
-425,194.03
-431,101.47
-435,244.35
-438,037.11
-441,363.51
-441,949.11
-445,057.89
-449,588.76
-452,277.00
-459,346.70
-463,539.35
-468,689.89
-474,281.77
-484,701.35
-485,524.85
-489,064.10
-496,901.76
-503,868.62
-517,205.14
-521,478.24
23
8,726.70
3,952.24
5,097.48
5,245.44
6,504.24
1,372.80
4,777.03
5,658.12
3,936.72
2,372.20
5,422.34
1,396.72
536,397.85
540,350.09
545,447.57
550,693.01
557,197.25
558,570.05
563,347.08
569,005.20
572,941.92
575,314.12
580,736.46
582,133.18
-8,726.70
-3,952.24
-5,097.48
-5,245.44
-6,504.24
-1,372.80
-4,777.03
-5,658.12
-3,936.72
-2,372.20
-5,422.34
-1,396.72
-530,204.94
-534,157.18
-539,254.66
-544,500.10
-551,004.34
-552,377.14
-557,154.17
-562,812.29
-566,749.01
-569,121.21
-574,543.55
-575,940.27
Model Test 2006

Revenue
Gross
profit
X4
8,326.62
3,972.18
4,243.38
3,238.68
14,971.44
4,744.38
4,023.63
2,196.09
23,881.86
9,798.30
61,962.48
25,062.48
7,843.36
5,737.76
Method -1
Predict
value
3463.26
1518.41
6628.19
1413.74
10872.22
10,642.40
5,554.40
64,797.60
31,320.80
63,294.77
33,404.77
3,920.00
2,469.60
3,521.70
1,841.70
6,230.00
2,731.41
1,870.00
1,025.27
13,229.20
4,173.53
38,495.94
11,352.18
3,822.39
2,067.39
8,910.00
4,811.40
1,430.00
560.78
29010.02
3233.08
4566.27
30360.39
29644.59
1364.39
1174.68
2464.64
387.97
5798.36
1,358.10
537.57
10,714.30
3,496.98
9,142.80
4,044.72
19,612.00
8,970.68
7,314.21
3,946.71
103,517.55
52,908.55
39,694.79
19,954.79
28,185.72
17,223.32
222.00
117.29
1,715.00
1,027.04
10,874.80
3,782.00
13,157.95
5,263.18
10,985.00
4,307.81
13,970.95
6,286.37
11,174.80
3,650.92
17832.91
1317.89
3741.12
178.40
144.15
4600.51
3852.01
8838.49
2981.05
48802.70
18403.92
12922.15
-396.97
314.14
4676.96
5764.42
4729.45
6151.65
4819.85
Residual-1
Y-M1
508.92
1,720.27
1,883.81
782.35
1,073.92
3,947.54
2,504.68
988.13
960.41
3,760.18
1,105.21
667.02
266.77
637.30
1,624.83
6,480.73
749.50
1,070.28
382.38
393.42
1,103.53
192.71
132.19
965.66
4,105.85
1,550.87
4,301.17
514.26
712.90
-894.96
-501.24
-421.64
134.72
-
24
33,907.02
9,998.94
11,086.02
4,673.02
24,950.25
8,426.25
2,173.60
1,042.08
2,068.00
931.26
6,925.50
2,766.78
6,650.00
2,919.35
6,264.00
3,052.08
6,891.50
3,108.60
14,582.50
4,835.50
7,020.00
2,906.28
6,956.00
3,123.54
1,046.00
445.80
11,390.00
6,078.52
14,365.00
7,528.95
5,848.00
2,688.28
11,401.00
3,978.00
13,689.00
5,952.18
1,820.00
718.76
10,962.00
5,343.66
33,705.70
15,176.98
11,035.20
3,499.32
11,098.00
3,782.31
22,730.40
10,757.34
8,140.60
3,272.40
8,100.00
3,222.00
15647.20
4777.56
11381.09
532.58
482.28
2795.91
2664.69
2480.83
2779.71
6442.93
2840.92
2810.43
-4.50
4922.35
6339.34
2282.69
4927.59
6017.36
364.16
4718.49
15551.31
4753.36
8,710.00
3,449.16
17,372.00
8,769.83
16,476.95
7,358.74
17,867.85
5,907.44
7,692.30
4,142.88
7,395.00
2,792.76
7,470.00
3,326.40
1,513.60
585.60
7,373.00
3,108.78
11,028.75
4,530.87
6,214.80
2,688.24
13,888.10
7,069.70
11,165.00
4,192.65
11,618.60
5,150.54
13,906.20
5,591.88
22,977.20
10,419.58
2,336.30
823.50
9,866.25
3,539.25
18,606.75
7,837.66
20,929.10
6,966.86
28,787.20
13,336.52
8,898.50
4,273.10
18,600.00
8,726.70
4783.27
10323.78
3374.66
3355.32
3645.86
7771.57
7345.26
8007.75
3161.13
3019.53
3055.25
218.22
3009.05
4750.28
2457.40
6112.19
4815.18
5031.23
6120.81
10441.33
610.07
4196.58
8359.69
9465.82
13208.63
3735.65
8356.47
1,168.93
5,648.26
-104.54
2,954.84
509.50
448.98
-29.13
254.67
571.25
328.89
1,607.43
65.36
313.11
450.30
1,156.17
1,189.61
405.59
-949.59
-65.18
354.60
625.17
-374.33
1,254.04
1,000.96
433.56
-102.26
-133.32
-196.70
998.26
13.48
2,100.31
981.75
-226.77
271.15
367.38
99.73
-219.41
230.84
957.51
-622.53
119.31
-528.93
-21.75
213.43
-657.33
-522.03
2,498.96
127.89
537.45
370.23
25
9,271.00
3,952.24
14,075.85
5,097.48
10,700.80
5,245.44
14,376.80
6,504.24
2,970.00
1,372.80
14,498.80
4,777.03
12,730.77
5,658.12
11,569.35
3,936.72
3,741.00
2,372.20
12,201.00
5,422.34
2,842.40
1,396.72
3913.07
6201.62
4594.08
6344.96
911.90
6403.07
5560.96
5007.77
1279.13
5308.63
851.13
39.17
1,104.14
651.36
159.28
460.90
1,626.04
97.16
1,071.05
1,093.07
113.71
545.59
Cusum calculation of data 2007

Gross
profit
Method 1
AVG
AVG-Y
Method-2
9343.400
17891.800
20259.550
22604.850
50680.830
58861.090
61114.650
64135.700
68401.700
74946.260
79808.600
84090.440
95858.690
111427.090
118390.930
123889.170
128081.990
129503.990
132145.910
133043.610
133737.060
134535.360
140733.660
147777.610
151564.330
156270.850
160892.710
165356.770
170044.570
176374.010
180516.890
183309.650
186418.430
189106.670
196176.370
201768.250
212187.830
213011.330
217284.430
5384.314
-3959.086
-8548.400
-2367.750
-2345.300
-28075.980
-8180.260
-2253.560
-3021.050
-4266.000
-6544.560
-4862.340
-4281.840
-11768.250
-15568.400
-6963.840
-5498.240
-4192.820
-1422.000
-2641.920
-897.700
-693.450
-798.300
-6198.300
-7043.950
-3786.720
-4706.520
-4621.860
-4464.060
-4687.800
-6329.440
-4142.880
-2792.760
-3108.780
-2688.240
-7069.700
-5591.880
-10419.580
-823.500
-4273.100
-3959.086
-12507.486
-14875.236
-17220.536
-45296.516
-53476.776
-55730.336
-58751.386
-63017.386
-69561.946
-74424.286
-78706.126
-90474.376
-106042.776
-113006.616
-118504.856
-122697.676
-124119.676
-126761.596
-127659.296
-128352.746
-129151.046
-135349.346
-142393.296
-146180.016
-150886.536
-155508.396
-159972.456
-164660.256
-170989.696
-175132.576
-177925.336
-181034.116
-183722.356
-190792.056
-196383.936
-206803.516
-207627.016
-211900.116
y
9343.400
8548.400
2367.750
2345.300
28075.980
8180.260
2253.560
3021.050
4266.000
6544.560
4862.340
4281.840
11768.250
15568.400
6963.840
5498.240
4192.820
1422.000
2641.920
897.700
693.450
798.300
6198.300
7043.950
3786.720
4706.520
4621.860
4464.060
4687.800
6329.440
4142.880
2792.760
3108.780
2688.240
7069.700
5591.880
10419.580
823.500
4273.100
26
8726.700
3952.240
5097.480
5245.440
4777.030
5658.120
3936.720
2372.200
1396.720
226011.130
229963.370
235060.850
240306.290
245083.320
250741.440
254678.160
257050.360
258447.080
-8726.700
-3952.240
-5097.480
-5245.440
-4777.030
-5658.120
-3936.720
-2372.200
-1396.720
-220626.816
-224579.056
-229676.536
-234921.976
-239699.006
-245357.126
-249293.846
-251666.046
-253062.766
Model Test 2007

Revenue
X4
34759.64
Gross
profit
Y
Method-1
Predict
Value
9343.40
19900.40
8548.40
6467.75
2367.75
5192.56
2345.30
71168.64
28075.98
17874.62
8180.26
4744.56
2253.56
8695.00
3021.05
10642.50
4266.00
10371.60
6544.56
10859.00
4862.34
10784.40
4281.84
27868.75
11768.25
30273.70
15568.40
17595.60
6963.84
12848.00
5498.24
6837.00
4192.82
3081.80
1422.00
5350.40
2641.92
2223.10
897.70
2043.50
693.45
1912.50
798.30
13344.45
6198.30
21730.70
7043.95
10570.80
3786.72
10537.80
4706.52
11493.90
4621.86
10293.00
4464.06
8788.00
4687.80
19188.80
6329.44
7692.30
4142.88
7395.00
2792.76
7373.00
3108.78
13800.76
8096.29
2939.50
2449.95
27778.17
7318.60
2277.97
3794.54
4542.19
4438.19
4625.30
4596.66
11155.34
12078.60
7211.48
5388.88
3081.25
1639.63
2510.55
1309.98
1241.03
1190.74
5579.46
8798.95
4514.66
4501.99
4869.04
4408.01
3830.24
7823.11
3409.60
3295.47
3287.02
Residual
Y-M1
4457.36
452.11
-571.75
-104.65
297.81
861.66
-24.41
-773.49
-276.19
2106.37
237.04
-314.82
612.91
3489.80
-247.64
109.36
1111.57
-217.63
131.37
-412.28
-547.58
-392.44
618.84
1755.00
-727.94
204.53
-247.18
56.05
857.56
1493.67
733.28
-502.71
-178.24
27
6214.80
2688.24
13888.10
7069.70
13906.20
5591.88
22977.20
10419.58
2336.30
823.50
8898.50
4273.10
18600.00
8726.70
9271.00
3952.24
14075.85
5097.48
10700.80
5245.44
14498.80
4777.03
12730.77
5658.12
11569.35
3936.72
3741.00
2372.20
2842.40
1396.72
2842.39
5788.17
5795.12
9277.48
1353.44
3872.66
7597.07
4015.67
5860.25
4564.57
6022.62
5343.87
4898.00
1892.70
1547.73
-154.15
1281.53
-203.24
1142.10
-529.94
400.44
1129.63
-63.43
-762.77
680.87
1245.59
314.25
-961.28
479.50
-151.01
Prediction Test 2006-2007

Final
Method07
13800.76
8096.294
2939.499
2449.954
27778.17
7318.597
2277.967
3794.541
4542.186
4438.187
4625.3
4596.661
11155.34
12078.6
7211.481
5388.877
3081.254
1639.633
2510.549
1309.978
1241.03
1190.739
5579.464
8798.946
4514.66
4501.991
4869.038
4408.013
3830.243
7823.11
3409.604
3295.471
3287.025
2842.392
Final
Method06
8,096.99
8,387.18
6,962.08
7,033.64
13,908.92
31,029.58
11,745.59
10,194.39
50,264.97
66,285.36
7,047.68
7,602.76
8,102.01
7,157.34
6,872.52
8,647.18
8,118.15
11,420.45
6,070.53
5,658.16
6,705.49
10,544.48
17,060.53
8,627.11
69,818.75
42,744.82
26,081.77
4,149.02
5,718.99
7,545.56
8,687.90
9,013.55
11,310.80
6,793.55
28
5788.172
5795.12
9277.477
1353.436
3872.664
7597.07
4015.667
5860.249
4564.567
6022.619
5343.873
4898.003
1892.7
1547.727
8,126.40
10,260.91
12,095.87
8,693.64
9,252.74
7,198.52
8,275.91
8,936.27
8,323.82
7,532.37
13,014.65
11,320.75
6,905.33
13,944.14
13,835.91
11,973.18
7,684.51
10,278.72
6,192.03
11,280.80
19,691.39
6,562.03
16,596.20
19,799.01
7,094.17
7,552.93
8,367.74
14,985.89
12,272.08
8,185.39
9,317.06
9,924.35
12,982.53
5,621.27
8,444.72
8,255.16
7,977.97
13,217.82
10,943.47
15,190.76
9,696.42
18,520.46
5,527.10
7,517.22
11,793.36
8,887.13
22,335.02
11,268.83
17,074.92
9,211.19
8,621.40
12,951.82
14,811.78
6,798.93
7,342.82
10,251.72
7,228.46
29
7,054.99
14,931.67
8,987.67
Camping Equipment
Year
Month
Product line
Unit
cost
Unit
price
Quantity
Revenue
Gross
profit
January
Camp
Equipment
Camp
Equipment
Camp
Equipment
5.24
12.53
831
8,326.62
3,972.18
0.85
3.66
1,182
4,243.38
3,238.68
15.93
23.80
642
14,971.44
4,744.38
15.62
35.09
117
4,023.63
2,196.09
41.18
73.50
342
23,881.86
9,798.30
150.00
265.14
246
61,962.48
25,062.48
7.50
16.29
449
7,314.21
3,946.71
46.38
66.77
548
34759.64
9343.40
2006
January
2006
January
2006
January
2006
January
2006
January
2006
March
2006
2007
January
2007
January
2007
January
2007
January
2007
January
Camp
Equipment
Camp
Equipment
Camp
Equipment
Camp
Equipment
Camp
Equipment
Camp
Equipment
Camp
Equipment
Camp
Equipment
Camp
Equipment
Camp
Equipment
Correlation
Method-1
Residual
0.995
3874.73
97.45
2286.76
6458.90
951.92
1,714.52
2201.30
-5.21
9924.17
-125.87
24733.72
328.76
3481.01
465.70
12901.65
3558.25
7240.28
1308.12
2122.44
245.31
1636.60
708.70
26773.48
1302.50
Correlatio
n
Method-1
Residual
1.00
5225.67
512.09
1,049.5
2
1,949.1
4
0.981
6.60
19.29
1720
19900.40
8548.40
20.00
31.55
205
6467.75
2367.75
30.29
55.24
94
5192.56
2345.30
213.33
370.86
202
71168.64
28075.98
Calculation of Golf Equipment

Year
Month
Product line
Unit
cost
2.80
Unit
price
10.64
Quantity
Revenue
752
7,843.36
Gross
profit
5,737.76
2006
January
2006
January
Golf
Equipment
Golf
Equipment
6.00
12.81
848
10,642.40
5,554.40
2006
January
Golf
Equipment
341.60
696.00
98
64,797.60
31,320.8
0
6603.92
2006
January
Golf
Equipment
610.00
1,359.7
2
49
63,294.77
33,404.7
7
2006
March
Golf
Equipment
221.00
461.00
229
103,517.5
5
52,908.5
5
2006
March
Golf
Equipment
420.00
889.02
47
39,694.79
19,954.7
9
2006
March
Golf
Equipment
28.40
76.86
386
28,185.72
17,223.3
2
2007
whole
year
whole
year
whole
year
Golf
Equipment
Golf
Equipment
Golf
Equipment
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2007
2007
33269.9
4
32529.9
4
52335.6
4
20909.3
1
15242.2
5
-954.52
1,981.0
7
874.83
572.91
30
Calculation of Outdoor Protection

Year
Month
Product line
2006
January
2006
March
2006
March
Outdoor
Protection
Outdoor
Protection
Outdoor
Protection
2007
whole
year
whole
year
whole
year
2007
2007
Outdoor
Protection
Outdoor
Protection
Outdoor
Protection
Unit
cost
1.85
Unit
price
5.00
Quantity
Revenue
784
3,920.00
Gross
profit
2,469.60
2.83
6.00
37
222.00
117.29
14.04
35.00
49
1,715.00
1,027.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Correlation
Method-1
Residual
1.00 2459.08
10.52
101.61
15.68
1053.40
-26.36
Calculation of Personal Accessories

2006
January
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
40.00
85.56
42
3,521.70
1,841.70
2006
January
39.31
70.00
89
6,230.00
2,731.41
2006
January
49.69
110.00
17
1,870.00
1,025.27
2006
January
20.92
30.55
433
13,229.20
4,173.53
2006
January
Personal
Accessories
8.56
12.78
3,171
38,495.94
11,352.18
2006
January
45.00
98.01
39
3,822.39
2,067.39
2006
February
50.60
110.00
81
8,910.00
4,811.40
2006
February
39.51
65.00
22
1,430.00
560.78
2006
February
30.39
50.30
27
1,358.10
537.57
2006
February
20.68
30.70
349
10,714.30
3,496.98
2006
February
67.08
120.30
76
9,142.80
4,044.72
2006
February
105.56
196.00
101
19,612.00
8,970.68
2006
March
28.60
43.85
248
10,874.80
3,782.00
2006
March
12.09
20.15
653
13,157.95
5,263.18
2006
March
39.51
65.00
169
10,985.00
4,307.81
2006
March
34.46
62.65
223
13,970.95
6,286.37
2006
March
20.67
30.70
364
11,174.80
3,650.92
2006
March
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
8.56
12.78
2,793
33,907.02
9,998.94
2006
March
53.00
96.44
121
11,086.02
4,673.02
2006
March
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
73.44
116.73
225
24,950.25
8,426.25
2006
March
87.04
167.20
13
2,173.60
1,042.08
2006
March
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
103.34
188.00
11
2,068.00
931.26
0.95
1774.53
67.17
2777.41
-46.00
1162.90
-137.63
5369.21 1,195.68
14725.49 3,373.31
1885.87
181.52
3769.81 1,041.59
999.97
-439.19
973.34
-435.77
4437.95
-940.97
3856.02
188.70
7732.76 1,237.92
4497.38
-715.38
5342.83
-79.65
4538.19
-230.38
5643.88
642.49
4608.47
-957.55
13026.21 3,027.27
4575.59
97.43
9709.52 1,283.27
1275.32
-233.24
1236.22
-304.96
31
2006
April
2006
April
2006
April
2006
April
2006
April
2006
April
2006
April
2006
April
2006
May
2006
May
2006
May
2006
June
2006
June
2006
June
2006
June
2006
June
2006
June
2006
June
2006
June
2006
July
2006
July
2006
July
2006
July
2006
July
2006
July
2006
August
2006
August
2006
August
2006
August
2006
August
2006
September
2006
September
2006
September
2006
September
2006
September
2006
September
2006
September
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
24.32
40.50
171
6,925.50
2,766.78
39.27
70.00
95
6,650.00
2,919.35
44.61
87.00
72
6,264.00
3,052.08
34.39
62.65
110
6,891.50
3,108.60
20.52
30.70
475
14,582.50
4,835.50
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
152.36
260.00
27
7,020.00
2,906.28
103.58
188.00
37
6,956.00
3,123.54
60.02
104.60
10
1,046.00
445.80
78.11
167.50
68
11,390.00
6,078.52
40.45
85.00
169
14,365.00
7,528.95
126.83
234.50
25
5,848.00
2,688.28
28.55
43.85
260
11,401.00
3,978.00
22.89
40.50
338
13,689.00
5,952.18
39.33
65.00
28
1,820.00
718.76
44.59
87.00
126
10,962.00
5,343.66
34.44
62.65
538
33,705.70
15,176.98
20.76
30.40
363
11,035.20
3,499.32
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
235.99
358.00
31
11,098.00
3,782.31
120.94
229.60
99
22,730.40
10,757.34
12.05
20.15
404
8,140.60
3,272.40
24.39
40.50
200
8,100.00
3,222.00
39.26
65.00
134
8,710.00
3,449.16
42.59
86.00
202
17,372.00
8,769.83
34.67
62.65
263
16,476.95
7,358.74
22.19
33.15
539
17,867.85
5,907.44
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
18.78
40.70
189
7,692.30
4,142.88
90.24
145.00
51
7,395.00
2,792.76
138.12
249.00
30
7,470.00
3,326.40
29.00
47.30
32
1,513.60
585.60
42.22
73.00
101
7,373.00
3,108.78
12.52
21.25
519
11,028.75
4,530.87
38.24
67.55
92
6,214.80
2,688.24
42.06
86.65
163
13,888.10
7,069.70
90.55
145.00
77
11,165.00
4,192.65
150.42
270.20
43
11,618.60
5,150.54
28.28
47.30
294
13,906.20
5,591.88
109.19
199.80
115
22,977.20
10,419.58
3034.95
-268.17
2932.94
-13.59
2790.00
262.08
3022.36
86.24
5870.34 1,034.84
3069.95
-163.67
3046.25
77.29
857.77
-411.97
4688.16 1,390.36
5789.80 1,739.15
2635.95
52.33
4692.23
-714.23
5539.48
412.70
1144.39
-425.63
4529.67
813.99
12951.66 2,225.32
4556.77 1,057.45
4580.03
-797.72
8887.51 1,869.83
3484.90
-212.50
3469.87
-247.87
3695.75
-246.59
6903.29 1,866.54
6571.85
786.89
7086.90 1,179.46
3318.90
823.98
3208.81
-416.05
3236.58
89.82
1030.93
-445.33
3200.66
-91.88
4554.39
-23.52
2771.78
-83.54
5613.20 1,456.50
4604.84
-412.19
4772.81
377.73
5619.91
-28.03
8978.90 1,440.68
32
2006
October
2006
October
2006
October
2006
October
2006
October
2006
October
2006
October
2006
October
2006
November
2006
November
2006
November
2006
December
2006
December
2006
December
2006
December
2006
December
2006
December
2006
December
2007
January
2007
January
2007
January
2007
January
2007
February
2007
February
2007
February
2007
March
2007
March
2007
March
2007
March
2007
April
2007
April
2007
April
2007
April
2007
May
2007
May
2007
May
2007
May
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
24.80
38.30
61
2,336.30
823.50
28.12
43.85
225
9,866.25
3,539.25
24.81
42.88
434
18,606.75
7,837.66
23.11
34.42
626
20,929.10
6,966.86
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
126.74
236.07
122
28,787.20
13,336.52
71.16
136.90
65
8,898.50
4,273.10
106.21
200.00
93
18,600.00
8,726.70
41.88
73.00
127
9,271.00
3,952.24
27.97
43.85
321
14,075.85
5,097.48
85.24
167.20
64
10,700.80
5,245.44
109.72
199.80
72
14,376.80
6,504.24
36.30
67.50
44
2,970.00
1,372.80
17.97
26.80
541
14,498.80
4,777.03
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
25.35
45.63
279
12,730.77
5,658.12
21.87
33.15
349
11,569.35
3,936.72
4.72
12.90
290
3,741.00
2,372.20
138.34
249.00
49
12,201.00
5,422.34
85.04
167.20
17
2,842.40
1,396.72
94
182.67
103.00
17874.62
8180.26
47
92.29
53.00
4744.56
2253.56
153
235.00
37.00
8695.00
3021.05
28
47.30
225.00
10642.50
4266.00
12.90
804.00
10371.60
6544.56
129
239.30
44.00
10859.00
4862.34
29
47.30
228.00
10784.40
4281.84
25
42.88
650.00
27868.75
11768.25
42
85.77
351.00
30273.70
15568.40
29
47.30
372.00
17595.60
6963.84
42
73.00
176.00
12848.00
5498.24
12.90
530.00
6837.00
4192.82
130
239.30
13.00
3081.80
1422.00
85
167.20
32.00
5350.40
2641.92
28
47.30
47.00
2223.10
897.70
20
30.50
67.00
2043.50
693.45
12
21.25
90.00
1912.50
798.30
34
62.65
213.00
13344.45
6198.30
24
35.05
622.00
21730.70
7043.95
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
1335.57
-512.07
4123.91
-584.66
7360.52
477.14
8220.49 1,253.63
11130.34 2,206.18
3765.55
507.55
7358.02 1,368.68
3903.49
48.75
5682.73
-585.25
4432.95
812.49
5794.17
710.07
1570.23
-197.43
5839.35 1,062.32
0.954
5184.64
473.48
4754.57
-817.85
1855.73
516.47
4988.47
433.87
1522.98
-126.26
7712.82
467.44
2102.35
151.21
3790.37
-769.32
4622.54
-356.54
4506.78
2037.78
4715.05
147.29
4683.17
-401.33
11983.31
-215.06
13010.95
2557.45
7593.60
-629.76
5564.95
-66.71
2996.45
1196.37
1391.85
30.15
2361.22
280.70
1024.93
-127.23
948.18
-254.73
892.21
-93.91
5777.08
421.22
9360.53
33
2316.58
2007
June
2007
June
2007
June
2007
June
2007
July
2007
July
2007
August
2007
August
2007
August
2007
September
2007
September
2007
September
2007
September
2007
October
2007
October
2007
October
2007
October
2007
November
2007
November
2007
December
2007
December
2007
December
2007
December
2007
December
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
25
38.30
276.00
10570.80
3786.72
150
270.20
39.00
10537.80
4706.52
28
47.30
243.00
11493.90
4621.86
41
73.00
141.00
10293.00
4464.06
79
169.00
52.00
8788.00
4687.80
18
26.80
716.00
19188.80
6329.44
19
40.70
189.00
7692.30
4142.88
90
145.00
51.00
7395.00
2792.76
42
73.00
101.00
7373.00
3108.78
38
67.55
92.00
6214.80
2688.24
42
86.65
163.00
13888.10
7069.70
28
47.30
294.00
13906.20
5591.88
109
199.80
115.00
22977.20
10419.58
25
38.30
61.00
2336.30
823.50
71
136.90
65.00
8898.50
4273.10
106
200.00
93.00
18600.00
8726.70
42
73.00
127.00
9271.00
3952.24
28
43.85
321.00
14075.85
5097.48
85
167.20
64.00
10700.80
5245.44
18
26.80
541.00
14498.80
4777.03
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
25
45.63
279.00
12730.77
5658.12
22
33.15
349.00
11569.35
3936.72
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
12.90
290.00
3741.00
2372.20
85
167.20
17.00
2842.40
1396.72
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
Personal
Accessories
4591.90
-805.18
4577.80
128.72
4986.34
-364.48
4473.20
-9.14
3830.11
8274.37
857.69
1944.93
3361.92
780.96
3234.88
-442.12
3225.48
-116.70
2730.58
-42.34
6009.38
1060.32
6017.12
-425.24
9893.15
526.43
1073.30
-249.80
3877.33
395.77
8022.78
703.92
4036.50
-84.26
6089.61
-992.13
4647.45
597.99
1493.30
6270.33
5514.86
5018.58
143.26
1081.86
1673.53
698.67
1289.55
107.17
Data for Camping Equipment

Product line
Revenue-2006
Revenue-2007
Camping Equipment
8,326.62
34,759.64
4,243.38
34,759.64
14,971.44
19,900.40
4,023.63
6,467.75
23,881.86
5,192.56
61,962.48
71,168.64
7,314.21

Product line
Golf Equipment
Revenue-2006
Revenue-2007
7,843.36
10,642.40
0.00
64,797.60
0.00
34
63,294.77
0.00
103,517.55
39,694.79
28,185.72

Product line
Revenue-2006
Revenue-2007
Outdoor Protection
3,920.00
0.00
222.00
0.00
1,715.00
0.00

Product line
Revenue-2006
Revenue-2007
3,521.70
17874.62
6,230.00
4744.56
1,870.00
8695.00
13,229.20
10642.50
38,495.94
10371.60
3,822.39
10859.00
8,910.00
10784.40
1,430.00
27868.75
1,358.10
30273.70
10,714.30
17595.60
9,142.80
12848.00
19,612.00
6837.00
10,874.80
3081.80
13,157.95
5350.40
10,985.00
2223.10
13,970.95
2043.50
11,174.80
1912.50
33,907.02
13344.45
11,086.02
21730.70
24,950.25
10570.80
2,173.60
10537.80
2,068.00
11493.90
6,925.50
10293.00
6,650.00
8788.00
6,264.00
19188.80
6,891.50
7692.30
14,582.50
7395.00
7,020.00
7373.00
6,956.00
6214.80
1,046.00
13888.10
11,390.00
13906.20
14,365.00
22977.20
5,848.00
2336.30
11,401.00
8898.50
13,689.00
18600.00
1,820.00
9271.00
10,962.00
14075.85
33,705.70
10700.80
11,035.20
14498.80
11,098.00
12730.77
22,730.40
11569.35
8,140.60
3741.00
8,100.00
2842.40
8,710.00
35
17,372.00
16,476.95
17,867.85
7,692.30
7,395.00
7,470.00
1,513.60
7,373.00
11,028.75
6,214.80
13,888.10
11,165.00
11,618.60
13,906.20
22,977.20
2,336.30
9,866.25
18,606.75
20,929.10
28,787.20
8,898.50
18,600.00
9,271.00
14,075.85
10,700.80
14,376.80
2,970.00
14,498.80
12,730.77
11,569.35
3,741.00
12,201.00
2,842.40

Year
2007
Product line
Actual amount
Camping
Equipment
9343.40
8548.40
2367.75
2345.30
28075.98
Target Amount
12901.65
7240.28
2122.44
1636.6
26773.48

Year
2007
Product line
Actual amount
Personal
Accessories
8180.26
2253.56
3021.05
4266.00
6544.56
4862.34
4281.84
11768.25
15568.40
6963.84
5498.24
4192.82
Target Amount
7712.82
2102.35
3790.37
4622.54
4506.78
4715.05
4683.17
11983.31
13010.95
7593.6
5564.95
2996.45
36
1422.00
2641.92
897.70
693.45
798.30
6198.30
7043.95
3786.72
4706.52
4621.86
4464.06
4687.80
6329.44
4142.88
2792.76
3108.78
2688.24
7069.70
5591.88
10419.58
823.50
4273.10
8726.70
3952.24
5097.48
5245.44
4777.03
5658.12
3936.72
2372.20
1396.72
1391.85
2361.22
1024.93
948.18
892.21
5777.08
9360.53
4591.9
4577.8
4986.34
4473.2
3830.11
8274.37
3361.92
3234.88
3225.48
2730.58
6009.38
6017.12
9893.15
1073.3
3877.33
8022.78
4036.5
6089.61
4647.45
6270.33
5514.86
5018.58
1673.53
1289.55
Data of camping Equipment

Revenue-2006
Revenue-2007
8,326.62
34,759.64
4,243.38
34,759.64
14,971.44
19,900.40
4,023.63
6,467.75
23,881.86
5,192.56
61,962.48
71,168.64
7,314.21

Revenue-2006
Revenue-2007
7,843.36
10,642.40
0.00
64,797.60
0.00
63,294.77
0.00
103,517.55
39,694.79
28,185.72
37

Revenue-2006
Revenue-2007
3,920.00
0.00
222.00
0.00
1,715.00
0.00

Revenue-2006
Revenue-2007
3,521.70
17874.62
6,230.00
4744.56
1,870.00
8695.00
13,229.20
10642.50
38,495.94
10371.60
3,822.39
10859.00
8,910.00
10784.40
1,430.00
27868.75
1,358.10
30273.70
10,714.30
17595.60
9,142.80
12848.00
19,612.00
6837.00
10,874.80
3081.80
13,157.95
5350.40
10,985.00
2223.10
13,970.95
2043.50
11,174.80
1912.50
33,907.02
13344.45
11,086.02
21730.70
24,950.25
10570.80
2,173.60
10537.80
2,068.00
11493.90
6,925.50
10293.00
6,650.00
8788.00
6,264.00
19188.80
6,891.50
7692.30
14,582.50
7395.00
7,020.00
7373.00
6,956.00
6214.80
1,046.00
13888.10
11,390.00
13906.20
14,365.00
22977.20
5,848.00
2336.30
11,401.00
8898.50
13,689.00
18600.00
1,820.00
9271.00
10,962.00
14075.85
33,705.70
10700.80
11,035.20
14498.80
11,098.00
12730.77
22,730.40
11569.35
8,140.60
3741.00
8,100.00
2842.40
8,710.00
17,372.00
16,476.95
17,867.85
7,692.30
7,395.00
38
7,470.00
1,513.60
7,373.00
11,028.75
6,214.80
13,888.10
11,165.00
11,618.60
13,906.20
22,977.20
2,336.30
9,866.25
18,606.75
20,929.10
28,787.20
8,898.50
18,600.00
9,271.00
14,075.85
10,700.80
14,376.80
2,970.00
14,498.80
12,730.77
11,569.35
3,741.00
12,201.00
2,842.40
39

System Analysis and Design

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System Analysis and Design

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Contents

Liner Model -2006:

X4 and Y Scatter Graph-2006

Fig-CUSUM of gathered data 2007

Liner Model 2007

X4 and Y Scatter Graph-2007

20000.00 40000.00 60000.00 80000.00

Prediction Check 2006-2007

Line Graph-2006 and 2007 of Prediction

Product Wise Analysis:

20,000.00 40,000.00 60,000.00 80,000.00

X-Y Scatter Graph for 2007

20000.00 40000.00 60000.00 80000.00

Calculation of Golf Equipment

Calculation of Outdoor Protection

X-Y Scatter Graph for 2006

Calculation for Personal Accessories

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

X-Y Scatter Graph for 2007

10000.00 20000.00 30000.00 40000.00

Data of Golf Equipment

Data of Outdoor Protection

Data of Personal Accessories

There is no Data for Golf Equipment and Outdoor Protection in 2007

Compare Between product wise revenue in year 2006 and 2007

Data of Golf Equipment

Data of Outdoor Protection

Data of Personal Accessories

The set of data will get in Appendix.

Cusum of Data 2006

Model Test 2006

Cusum calculation of data 2007

Model Test 2007

Prediction Test 2006-2007

Calculation of Golf Equipment

Calculation of Outdoor Protection

Calculation of Personal Accessories

Data for Camping Equipment

Data of Golf Equipment

Data of Outdoor Protection

Data of Personal Accessories

Data of Camping Equipment

Data of Personal Accessories

Data of camping Equipment

Data of Golf Equipment

Data of Outdoor Protection

Data of Personal Accessories

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