SCIENCE-POLICY BRIEF

Generating Climate Change Projections:

The Need and Implications for the Philippines

ISSN 2244-6618

VOL. 1 | ISSUE 2 | AUGUST 2013

How has climate change

affected the Philippines?
The Oscar M. Lopez
Center for Climate
Change Adapta:on and
Disaster Risk
Management
Founda:on, Inc.
The OML Center
recognizes that science
and technology have a
criRcal role to play in
enhancing the
resilience and coping
capacity of the various
sectors of the society
whose aspiraRons to
develop sustainability is
threatened by climate-
related risks and
disasters. It is striving
to create a Center of
Excellence by
generaRng science-
based soluRons in the
area of climate change
adaptaRon and disaster
risk management.

The Philippines is already bearing the brunt of

climate change.
It is the third highest country at risk to climate-
related events.1
It is the fourth among 190 countries that suered
the most extreme weather events such as ooding
and typhoons. 2

Current trends show that the climate has been

changing and will con:nue to do so.

The observed mean temperature from 1951 to

2010 increased by 0.648C.3

Fig. 1 Observed Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines (1951-2010)

Departures from 1971-2000 values4

To honor its Chairman

Emeritus Oscar M.
Lopez, and to
conRnue his work for
the environment and
naRon building, the
Lopez Group of
Companies provided
the seed fund for the
establishment of the
OML Center.

Changes in rainfall have made Luzon and

Mindanao drier and the Eastern and Western
parts of Visayas wePer. 3
From 2000 to 2012, natural disasters have caused
an esSmate of 12,899 deaths and 138,116
injuries. Over 375,000 homes were destroyed.
This period accumulated a yearly sum of 1.58
million dollars worth of socio-economic damage. 5

Fig. 2 Projected Change in Annual Rainfall (%) for 2020 (LeL) and 2050 (Right)5

Impacts in Various Sectors

Coastal and Marine: Temperature increase has
caused coral bleaching3; there is a projected 50
percent decrease in marine capture by 2050.6
Health: Steady increases in temperature and
rainfall lead to outbreaks of diseases; malnutriRon
is likely due to the stress in food producRon.4
Agriculture and food security: HoTer days have
negaRvely aected the agricultural sector; grain
yield in rice producRon, for one, has declined by 10
percent with every 1C rise in minimum
temperature. 7
Water: Drier areas have less access to water,
aecRng agricultural producRon; increases in
rainfall lead to oods, landslides and mudslides.4
Forestry: Forests will be unable to support some of
its ora and fauna; forest res cause destrucRon
and alter the lives of dependent communiRes. 4
Urban and Infrastructure: There is a magnied risk
of oods and other climate-related hazards, along
with a high vulnerability for coastal ciRes.
Energy: Climate change observed as temperature,
rainfall, sea level, and the frequency and severity of
extreme events will likely aect the producRon,
delivery and consumpRon of energy.

Climate change is projected to worsen in the

coming decades.

The mean daily temperature of the Philippines is

projected to increase by 0.9C 1.1C in 2020. It
is expected to rise by 1.8 2.2C in 2050. 4
Majority of the country will have less rain during
the hot season, but there is a projected increase
in rainfall during the southwest and northeast
monsoon seasons in 2020 and 2050. 4

Fig. 3 Floods have become more extreme and frequent in the Philippines. 8

VOL. 1 | ISSUE 2 | AUGUST 2013

Key Terms and Deni:ons

Weather is the set of
meteorological condiRons that are
observed at a certain Rme and
place. 9
Climate gives a long-term view of
the weather in a specic locaRon. It
considers the average condiRons
and variability. 9
A weather forecast shows the
condiRons of an area within the
immediate future. It relies more on
iniRal circumstances. 10
A climate predic:on/forecast is the
climate state with the highest
probability of occurring in the
future. 10 It deals with spaRally and
temporally averaged condiRons in
lieu of an exact Rme and place.
A climate projec:on is the
projecRon of the climate systems
response to greenhouse gas and
aerosol emissions. It focuses on
emission, concentraRon, or
radiaRve forcing scenarios. 11
A climate scenario is a general view
on the future developments of an
area. A set of scenarios is
developed to invesBgate the
potenBal consequences of
anthropogenic climate change. 12
Downscaling is a technique that
improves the results of a General
CirculaRon Model (GCM) from
coarse to high-resoluRon results.
This is done to generate more
explicit results for local or regional
areas. 3
Simple interpola:on is the most
widely used technique that requires
incorporaRng change elds to the
site from nearby grid boxes.13
EsRmates are able to address the
issue of disconBnuiBes in changing
between adjacent sites in dierent
grid boxes. 12
Sta:s:cal downscaling entails
developing a staRsRcal relaRonship
between large-scale variables
coming from GCMs and small-scale
or local climate variables. 14 This
relaRonship is applied to the GCM
results in order to replicate the
climate characterisRcs of the
area. 12
Dynamic downscaling requires
intensive computaRons to produce
high-resoluRon results, allowing the
model to represent extremes in
weather and precipitaRon in
mountainous areas.12
2

Fig. 4 Filipino shermen and farmers depend on climate informaRon to help them deal with the consequences of climate change 22, 23, 24, 25

Why do we need climate

scenarios?
Decision-makers/resource managers need
informa:on to an:cipate poten:al impacts of
climate change.
They must have access to data that will help them
make informed, environmentally sound
decisions. 15 GeneraSng science-based data helps
communiSes understand that even if climate
change cannot be completely eliminated, its
consequences can be alleviated through
adaptaSon policies. 16

management plans; long-term projecSons are

needed in choosing technological investments.
Related agencies use climate projecSons to design
climate change adaptaSon programs and prioriSze
technologies and extension projects.
Fisher folks are vulnerable in terms of livelihood
and income opSons. Coastal resources managers
will need inputs on climate projecSons to assure
the safety of shermen and to predict marine
capture percentage.
In order to make both short- and long-term
decisions on how much water to store, watershed
managers use climate projecSons to plan for and
adapt to future changes in river ow, such as
decreased runo in the dry season. More accurate
climate projecSons allow for bePer planning and
investments in infrastructure.

Climate projec:ons are important inputs to

impact assessments that inform adapta:on
planning. 17, 18, 19, 20
Impact models require high spaSal and temporal
resoluSons done through downscaling; however,
the provided resoluSon of GCMs is sSll not enough
compared to what impact models need. When the In the long term, climate projecSon data allows
local government execuBves to form adaptaSon
resoluSons are matched, they will be able to
strategies for projected changes in climate and
provide data to be used in the planning process.
extreme events, and to plan for long-term
Climate projec:ons can be used directly by many infrastructure investments. These could include
zoning changes to mandate building code
individuals, groups, resource managers, local
improvements, relocaSon of residents in ood and
planners and policy makers to combat climate
landslide-prone areas, and programs to increase
change impacts.
Farmers rely on short-term weather forecasts for the energy eciency of buildings.
planSng dates, irrigaSon schedule and crop
Table 1. Example of the dierent variables each sector must consider when assessing impacts of climate change 21

Sector

Assessment Focus

Variables*

Coastal

Yield, storm surge, area inundated, coastal erosion and ooding

Slr, PW, T, Rf

Marine
Health
Agriculture

Coral bleaching and mortality

Heat-related mortality, infecRous disease
Crop producRon (growth and yield)

TSS
T, Rf
Rf, T, RS, E

Water Resources
Biodiversity
Urban /
Infrastructure
Disaster
management
*LEGEND

Stream ow / runo / river ows; evapotranspiraRon; groundwater

recharge (water availability and supply)
Primary producRon, abundance and distribuRon of species

T, Rf, R

Impacts to building, road maintenance, energy

T, Rf, R, W

SuscepRbility of infrastructures and vulnerability of populaRon to

extreme events

EE, Slr

Temperature: T
Radia:on: R
Humidity: H

Sea Surface Temperature: TSS

Solar Radia:on: RS

Sea Level Rise: Slr

Rainfall: Rf

Wind Pressure: PW

Rf, E, T

Evapora:on: E
Extreme Events: EE

VOL. 1 | ISSUE 2 | AUGUST 2013

How are climate scenarios generated?

A climate projecRon is usually a statement about the likelihood that something
will happen in the future, usually several decades to centuries, given various
assumpRons or condiRonal expectaRons i.e. changes in the set of boundary
condiRons that may inuence future condiRons. 26
Most climate change studies (impact, vulnerability and adaptaRon assessments)
in the past decade relied on climate projecRons developed through a number of
components and processes (Figure 6). In the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the projecRons were
based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), which were generated
following a sequenRal approach (Figure 7a).
Since socio-economic changes are considered key drivers of
projected changes in future emissions and climate17,
dierent assumpRons about populaRon growth,
technological change, energy and land use are made
forming the socio-economic storylines used to
predict future emissions.28

areas and larger Rme scales. 27

It is the principal source of future climate projecRons

designed to evaluate the behavior of the global climate
system. Currently, there are more than 23 dierent
GCMs from climate modeling insRtuRons in the world.17
The number of possible parameter semngs,
emission scenario and GCM pairings
creates a signicant number of alternaRve
climate projec:ons for exploring a range of
potenRal climate futures. GCM output has
climate variables for both historical and
future Rme periods for each cell in a grid
that covers the globe.

Each reecRng emission scenario generates a

parRcular representaRon of atmospheric
greenhouse gas (GHGs) concentraRons that
inuence climate. These are used to facilitate
comparisons and communicaRon among the
models and study results.28 For this purpose,
the SRES have been developed by the IPCC.
There are 40 dierent emission scenarios
forming four families (A1, A2, B1, B2) which are
all considered equally likely, meaning there are
no implied assumpRons about which path
development will take.
The GCM dened
as represenBng
physical processes in the
atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere
and land surface, are the most
advanced tools currently available
for simulaBng the response of the
global climate system to
increasing greenhouse gas
concentraBons.17

Fig. 5 The skill of GCM projecRons of temperature and precipitaRon generally decrease
along with the spaRal and temporal scales. The models have more skill over larger spaRal

Finally, coarse projecRons can be

downscaled to ner resoluRon.
Downscaling is the process of
generaRng locally relevant data from
GCMs. This entails decisions on
downscaling techniques (staRsRcal or
dynamic) and baseline (observed)
climatology.

Fig. 6 Process of using climate projections

The downscaled climate projec:ons can now

be used to appropriately address climate change
impact assessments, since it allows for more
detailed representaRons of the potenRal changes
associated with a parRcular climate scenario. The
downscaled data are beTer suited for use in
impact and vulnerability assessments, and
adapta:on planning.

In the working group 1 report on the physical science basis of

the IPCC FiLh Assessment Report (AR5) tentaRvely scheduled
for release in January 2014, a dierent approach (Figure 7b)
was used in the development of a new set of scenarios -
RepresentaRve ConcentraRon Pathways (RCPs). The four
selected RCPs took alternaRve futures in global greenhouse
gas and aerosol concentraRons as their starRng point rather
than starRng with socio-economic scenarios, as in the AR4. 10
Climate projecRons will be generated by the climate
community given the corresponding GHG emissions and
concentraRons by each RCP. In parallel, dierent socio-
economic scenarios were also developed to provide for
dierent alternaRves for each RCP. The climate projecRons
can then be used in the socio-economic scenarios for impact
assessment.29
Fig. 7 Approaches to the development of global scenarios: (a) previous sequenRal approach; (b) proposed parallel approach. 30, 31

VOL. 1 | ISSUE 2 | AUGUST 2013

In order to address these trials, we must:
through public awareness campaigns,
organizaRonal learning and policy
Improve access to and availability of
climate data (observed and projected). This
integraRon. 20 It is important to improve
will allow further analysis of past climate
the understanding of the informaRon needs
trends and the enhancement of quality of
of users. It is also crucial to build the
downscaling processes. The overwhelming
capacity of users to properly interpret and
Climate informa:on is increasingly viewed as
amount of data must also be made clear
apply climate projecRons. Dialogues to
important input for decision making,
through simple explanaRons and
enhance in-depth understanding of users
especially for adapta:on planning.
applicaRons to relatable situaRons.
needs and the potenRal uses of climate
Adapta:on measures will help build
projecRons should be supported.
community resilience, necessary for
Share informa:on through a coordinated
sustainable development.
planorm to allow stakeholders to
eecRvely engage with each other and
Climate projecRons provide a set of
plausible future climates and its
encourage more collaboraRve acRon,
corresponding impacts.
exchange of ideas, resources and learning.
These will allow decision-makers to beTer
visualize what these dierent impacts imply
Where Philippine climate projec:ons
naRonally and locally.
can be accessed:
They will enable the formulaRon of plans
Using the PRECIS (Providing Regional
and strategies to adapt to a changing
Climates for Impact Studies) model,
environment.
Fig. 8 Climate informaRon must be communicated to the Filipino

How can climate scenarios

be used to inform climateresilient development in
the Philippines?

community in ways they can understand to help them adapt. 32

However, there remain challenges in

Strengthen climate science and the
genera:ng climate projec:ons. Downscaling
genera:on of climate change projec:ons
adds more to the complexity.
by providing training for scienRsts and
Developing climate projecRons involves
researchers in the applicaRon of climate
many processes and assumpRons.
models and downscaling techniques.
They require transparent documentaRon of
Resources (technological investment and
climate projecRons, clear communicaRon
insRtuRonal capacity) are needed to
of uncertainRes and limitaRons, as well as
support the exisRng eorts currently
technical capability and experRse.
undertaken by insRtuRons to encourage
There is a communicaRon gap between
their contribuRon to climate data.
knowledge providers (scienRsts and
Bridge the gap between science and policy

researchers) and users (decision-makers,

communi:es through communicaRon and
local pracRRoners).
dialogue. This can be accomplished

projecRons of temperature increase and

rainfall change in the Philippines in the
future was generated by PAGASA in two
Rme frames at the provincial level: 2020
and 2050. The report can be accessed from
hTp://goo.gl/pHUIG4.
A more comprehensive report on climate
projecRons in the Philippines in various
sectors and scale of dierent individuals
and insRtuRons will be released by the
OML Center soon.
The data from this report along with other
climate informaRon will be available at the
Climate Knowledge Portal upon launching.

Climate projec:ons oer a reasonable way to assess the challenges posed by climate change by providing a framework for considering
decisions against a range of poten:al climate futures and their corresponding impacts. But given the challenges and uncertain:es posed by
its use, there is a need further explore the opportuni:es and limita:ons of using such projec:ons.

When referencing this Science-Policy Brief, please cite as:

Cancio, A., Delno, R., Lasco, R. and Pulhin, P. 2013. Genera:ng Climate Change Projec:ons: The Need and
Implica:ons for the Philippines. Science-Policy Brief No 2. The OML Center, Pasig City, Philippines. 4pp.
In partnership with:

REFERENCES
Executive Editor:
Dr. Rodel Lasco
Production Team:
Alexandra Beatrice Cancio
Rafaela Jane Delfino
Perlyn Pulhin
The OML Center
36th Flr. One Corporate Center,
Julia Vargas corner, Meralco Avenue,
Ortigas, Pasig City 1605 Philippines
Tel: + (632) 982-2276
Email: info@omlopezcenter.org
For more information,
please visit our website at
www.omlopezcenter.org

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The OML Center Science-Policy Brief is a publication that provides information on climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.