A Brief Introduction to Computer Modeling

Researchers use a wide array of mathematical formulas and approximations in order to

predict future events.

Picture from http://zoomradar.com/brandons-blog/

As seen in picture above, multiple predictions can be layered to give a density cloud of
probable outcomes.
In this case, the computers are trying to calculate the path of hurricane Ike. These
predictions only are made for 48 hours or less due to the low precision of these Spaghetti
Plots and inaccuracy from each individual mathematical model. Inaccuracy sprouts from
large region size, lack of computing power (number and strength of computers), lack of
initial data, etc..

There are many types of models; The research of Gabriel Ridgeway will use an
unstructured triangular mesh. A structured grid needs to consist of quadrilaterals instead of
triangles and requires much more effort if the mesh has quality issues since the entire mesh
will need to be remade instead of making minor changes.

Modeling Saco/Casco Bays with

Unstructured Triangle Mesh

vs.

Unstructured Triangle
Mesh
In order to model complicated and
irregular regions, one solution is to use
an unstructured triangle mesh (See
above for differences between
structured and unstructured). Nodes
(points of triangle) are defined in
space in order to create elements
(triangles) that can be used to fit any
type of jagged coastline.

Before the model runs, mesh quality

needs to be improved since many
errors can cause the model to break
(e.g.
angle
of
triangles
too
large/small). As the model runs, the
computer references the elements or
nodes in order to pin the data to a
specific location.

Current Modeling Research

An unstructured triangle mesh was
created by Gabriel Ridgeway for
modeling the Saco and Casco Bays in
Maine. The mesh will predict water
movements within its region. Current
version is as shown to the right; mesh
quality is being improved in preparation
for longer term model runs. After a few
test short-term (e.g. 3-6 days) model runs
are successful, a longer time period will
be implemented in order to get a model
predicting an entire season.
Picture to right:
Colors signify depth of ocean floor, the
black areas mean there are too many
triangles for the resolution of the picture
(if you zoom in youll see many small
triangles).

Predictive Capabilities of Model

Seasonal modeling will be implemented
to help the SEANET project. The outputs
of the model will predict fluxes of water
between the triangles. When layered
with other inputs (e.g. water quality or
chlorophyll content), the output of water
movement will be insightful for
aquaculturists as it will help them decide
optimal locations for harvest zones
within the Saco/Casco region.
Other research with this model will
primarily focus on shorter time periods
in order to capture local events such as
storm surges.
Gabriel Ridgeway
Orono, ME.
gabriel.j.ridgeway@gmail.com
First three pictures from:
http://ntl.bts.gov/DOCS/ch5.html

Picture on left:
Captures flux (movement) of water in
the Saco region but with an older model
(current one does not have output yet).