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TRIM Daily

Nov 19, 2015

TRIM Highlights
Expect market to strengthen today as EIDO increased by +1%. PGAS share
price increased +11% yesterday as market took opportunity on its lag vs JCI
in the past 1 month knowing that 4Q15 results will be a surprise in our view.
We went to HOKIs pubex yesterday, and come up with summaries; valuation
range of 13-16x P/E FY16F (vs AISA 14x), IPO fund will be used to pay its
payables, while inventory is expected to increase. Negative development on
ISAT from news about additional license cost to be paid to majority shareholder (Ooredo) if ISAT achieved positive net profit.

JCI

4,497.9

C hange
Transaction Volume (m)
Transaction Value (Rpbn)
Mkt C ap (Rptr)
Market 2015 P/E (x)
Market Div. Yield (%)

-0.07%
3,387
4,443
4,748
12.9
2.8%

Global Indices

Global Wrap
Fed minutes released on Wednesday continued to flag December as a likely
time for interest rates to rise after seven years near zero, with two expressing confidence they will be able to pull off a rate hike smoothly despite fears
of an abrupt market reaction. Investors reacted by increasing the odds for a
rate increase next month to 72%, from 64%.

Dow Jones
Nasdaq
Nikkei
ST Times
FTSE
Hang Seng

Price

C hg

17,737.2
5,075.2
19,649.2
2,886.1
6,279.0
22,188.3

247.7
89.2
19
-30.7
10.2
-76

1.4
1.8
0.1
-1.1
0.2
-0.3

Technical Market View


Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) down by 3 point to 4498 yesterday. Index
movers were mostly driven by basic infrastructure (+1.5% basic industry
(+1.2%) and trade (-0.9%). Total transaction value was Rp4.4tr. JCI
recorded RP3.4bn net sell by foreign investors. JCI today is expected to
strenghtening trend and trade in 4435-4505 range

Dual Listing (NYSE)


USD IDR
10 yr Indo Govt bond (%)
10 yr US govt bond (%)

Technical analysis: trading picks


Stock

SMGR

Price

11500

Rating

Buy

After broke resisten at level 11200, SMGR


formed a white candle pattern on the peak of
its downtrend channel formation. SMGR with
trading range at 11200-12050

UNTR

17050

Buy

PWON

433

Buy

PWON formed a white candle yesterday,


PWON have a potential upwrd movement at
trading range 415-445

PGAS

2910

Buy

We
believe
PGAS
have
a
continues
strenghtening at range level 2850-3100

RALS

725

Buy

RALS long term bullish, white long candle with


increased volume. RALS today will trade in
range 705-745

1415

Spread (%)
EIDO
Foreign YtD (USDmn)

Reason

UNTR a potential upside today with trading


range 16700-17550

SMRA

C hg
%
73 0.5
-0.0 -0.3
0.01 0.2
6.34 -0.03 -0.5
20.9
0.2 1.0
(2,901)
-0 0.0

13,819
8.61
2.3

MACD indicates positive signal of a potential


Spec Buy technical rebound for SMRA. SMRA today trading range is around 1380-1510

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com

JCI Index, Avg 5D MA Value


Avg. 5 Day MA Trading Value (RHS)

Price (LHS)

6,000

(Rpbn)
8,000
7,000

5,000

6,000
5,000

4,000

4,000
3,000

3,000

2,000
1,000

2,000
Nov-14

Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15

Jul-15

0
Sep-15 Nov-15

TRIM DAILY

IPO: PT Buyung Poetra Sembada (HOKI)


Buyung Poetra Sembada

Market cap post IPO

Rp991.2-1,180bn

Deal Size

Rp298.2-355bn

Offering Price Range

Rp420-500/share

Shares Offered

Max 710mn shares (30.08%)

Book Bulding Period


Listing Date

18-26 November 2015


16 December 2015

Established in 2003, PT Buyung Poetra Sembada (HOKI) operates as a branded rice production & distribution
company, specifically the "Topikoki" brand (83% of revenue), located in Cipinang Central Rice Market, Jakarta. Other brands are Rumah Limas, Belida, and BPS. HOKI als produces and distributes private label rice
products in Indonesia with several partners; Indomaret, Hypermart, Giant, Hero, Lotte Mart, etc. In 1H15,
the top 5 customers are Indomaret, HERO, MPPA, Trans Retail, and Lotte Mart.

The current business model of HOKI is buying low quality rice and then giving value-added process to get
high quality rice. The production process consist of cleaning, paddy separating, whitening, polishing, destoning, and packaging. According to AC Nielsen survey, HOKI has 35% modern trade rice sales market
share.

HOKI plans to expand the company's production process from the use of paddy as raw materials, to reduce
dependency on rice as raw materials. HOKI will buy premium quality paddy, instead of rice, and process it to
become the superior branded rice quality. Based on management's past experience in Palembang, the upstream plan will bring 10% gross profit margin expansion.

The funds obtained from IPO would be used to increase working capital. Post IPO, HOKI will be able to pay
off its 205 suppliers much more quickly, which should ensure greater rice supplies. This should help to guarantee supplies during the current El Nino period. Additionally, HOKI plans to build silos for paddy storage and
we are looking at higher inventory turnover to a maximum average of 85 days.

HOKI's turnover days 1H15, : 68 receivable days, 131 payable days, and 81 inventory days. The company
reached Rp45.9bn Net profit 1H15 (314% increase YoY) with operating income only Rp23.9bn and Rp28bn
from gain on short term investment. Core profit 1H15 Rp16.7bn (50% increase YoY). HOKI expects net income Rp55bn 2015F, Rp76bn 2016F, and Rp100bn 2017F.

By using market cap post IPO range of Rp991-1,180bn, this translates to 13-16x range of 2016F P/E (vs
AISA trades at 14x 2016F P/E).

From 30.08% shares offered, 2% out of it (max 14.2 mn shares) will be allocated for ESA (employee stock
allocation) program.

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com

TRIM DAILY

News of the Day


Banks: lowered minimum RRR does not mean lower
lending rates

KPPU will focus on branded generics and licensed


drugs

Bankers view the lower minimum RRR positively but they


are still maintaining lending rates. This is due to unchanged benchmark interest rate at 7.5%. Current concern remains on weak loan demand, not on liquidity.
Source: Bisnis Indonesia (angga.aditya@trimegah.com)

This is related to the high price of branded generics and


licensed drugs in market as Government does not regulate
the prices. In FY14, pharmaceuticals in Indonesia recorded
Rp 52trn, expected to grow by 11.8% YoY in 2015F.
Source: Bisnis Indonesia (patricia.gabriela@trimegah.com)

Media: ad spending picks up in 3Q15 on government programs

Indian firm to take RI to arbitration court

According to Nielsen Indonesia, ad spending growth on a


YoY basis in 2Q15 was 6% (vs. 12% in 2Q14 due to
political campaign). In 3Q15, the government appeared
to be the biggest ad spender during July-September
period. The government has spent Rp4.58tn on ads until
9M15 (-15% decrease from last year) despite the amount
was much higher than consumer goods ad spending. Hair
care segment, which is the biggest spender among consumer goods segments, spent only Rp3.35tn. Source:
The Jakarta Post
Telco: Govt to announce in 1Q16 the tender winner
for 2,100Mhz spectrum (block 11 & 12 @5Mhz)
These two 3G blocks were previously owned by Axis,
which were submitted back to Govt after Axis acquisition
by EXCL. Telkomsel (TLKM) and EXCL target to acquired
2 blocks, while ISAT and Tri intends to own 1 block.
Telkomsel aims to add spectrum as its spectrum already
more densed than other operators due to high number of
subscribers on the same size of bandwidth. Refarming
(rearrangement) plan for 2,100Mhz will still depend on
which telco operator win the tender. If the winner is
owner of block 10 (EXCL), then there is no need for
refarming. Spectrums beauty contest requirement is still
being discussed whether to include non-existing operators (operators which does not own other existing blocks
in 2,100Mhz, i.e. FREN, Bolt (KBLV), and Sampoerna
Telekomunikasi Indonesia) or not. Source: Bisnis Indonesia, Kontan
Politics : Rizal Ramli said reshuffle would be happen this year
Contrast with Vice President Jusuf Kallas statement last
week, Maritime Affairs Minister Rizal Ramli said that
cabinet reshuffle part II would likely happen by end of
this year. Last week, Jusuf Kalla said cabinet reshuflle
would not be happen until end of this year because government focus on regional elections (Pilkada) which will
be held simultaneously across the country in December
and several important occasions abroad which should be
attended
by
Jokowi
and
JK.
Source:
Tempo
(yeni.simanjuntak@trimegah.com)

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com

Indian Metals and Ferro Alloys Ltd (IMFA) has taken the
Indonesian government to the international arbitration
court for being unable to develop its mining areas due to
overlapping mining permits, a senior government figure has
said. IMFA reportedly demanded Rp7.7tn (US$600mn) for
being unable to operate in the areas, and has submitted its
appeal to Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague. The
dispute emerge after IMFA purchased a mining operation
permit in Kalimantan, valued at US$8.7mn in 2010, only to
find out that several other permits have been issued by
other local administrators, which claimed that parts of the
mining area were located within their territories. Source:
The Jakarta Post
Kadin to arm up with China to develop ports in eastern areas
Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) is
cooperating with the Development Committee of China on
the construction of international standard seaports in Indonesias eastern regions. According to Yogi Prayanto, Kadin
Deputy Chairman for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries, MoUs
between Kadin and Chinas Development Committee, between Indonesias Sorong Port and Chinas North Bay Shatin Port has been signed. Yogi also mentioned that Kadin
was convinced that the funds from the state budget would
not be adequate to build infrastructure, so the private
sector should take the initiative in the development of ports
and shipyards. Source: The Jakarta Post
TRIO: in talks with creditors regarding loan restructuring
The company is still in discussion with its lender to restructure its Rp6.4tn total bank loans, of which Rp2.1tn and
Rp1.9tn will be matured this year and next year respectively. Further details are undisclosed yet except the standstill
and forbearances scheme proposal as well as business plan
disclosure to the creditors. TRIO also still has two bonds
payable amounting Rp1.15tn and Rp1tn maturing in 2016
and
2017
respectively.
Source:
Bisnis
Indonesia
(angga.aditya@trimegah.com)

TRIM DAILY

News of the Day


OECD cuts subsidy for steam power plants

SMRA: to benefit from proposed high speed train

Organization Economic Cooperation & Development


(OECD) decided to cut 85% financing for future coal
projects, as its emission causes Earth temperature to
increase. South Korea and Japan will be among the
countries to limit coal projects investment in the future.
This is negative for coal as demand might be cut further.
Source: Bisnis Indonesia

And to be launched on the 21st of november 2015. Will


launch a total of 600 units for phase 1, and takes up 8Ha
(2.6% of total land). Initial marketing sales target set at
Rp500bn,
with
Rp300bn
capex.
Source:
Kontan
(wisnu.budhiargo@trimegah.com)

Comment:

ISAT will will get exclusive right to use global assets owned
by Ooredo, e.g. sponsorhip assets, media marketing,
intellectual copyrights, and creative datas. According to
companys disclosure, ISAT will pay license cost annually
based on following provisions:

Negative for coal sector as lower demand will also result


in further price cut. Newcastle coal price is at US$53.75/
ton per yesterday closing, falls 14% YTD. This will in turn
be negative also for mining contractors (i.e. UNTR and
DOID) as it might result in volume and tariff cut. We
have accounted 5% decline in coal production tariff in
2015 and 2016 (flat afterwards), so we remain confident
DOID will be able to reach net revenue of US$593mn and
US$182mn EBITDA in 2016. DOID is currently trading at
2 . 9 / 2 . 4 x
2 0 1 6 - 1 7 E
E V / E B I T D A
(kevie.aditya@trimegah.com)
DOID: 10M15 volumes in-line with our estimates
DOID recorded a 3.1mt coal production and 24.0mbcm
overburden volume, making up 10M15 numbers to
27.9mt and 225.5mbcm respectively. Average strip ratio
in October 2015 was at 7.7x.
Comment:
This is in-line with our full-year estimates (85% and 84%
of our coal production and overburden volume estimates,
accordingly). (kevie.aditya@trimegah.com)

ISAT: Ooredo to do affiliated transaction with ISAT

1) the license cost will be paid annually calculated from


ISATs revenue in audited financial statement;
2) licensecost will only be paid if the company achieved
positive net profit (audited and annouced financial statement) after accounting the license payment;
3) lichse cost will be paid based on certain percentage from
the companys operational revenue which will not exceed
1.3% of the companys operational revenue (cellular, fixed
line, fixed data (MIDI), and fiber; not include revenue from
Lintasarta and tower business). Source: Company, Investor Daily
Comment:
We are checking with the company on details but at least
the initial reaction would be negative. It is not clear how
much indosat can benefit from intl assets since we expect
growth to come from domestic. Assuming no benefit, the
impact to our 2016 profit is -35% lower (assuming 2016E
EBITDA margin down by 1.3% to 41.2%).

SMCB: Sold its Holcim Malaysia to Lafarge


At RMB330mn, or equivalent to Rp1.03tn. SMCB will sell
all its holding on Holcim Malaysia (HMSB), which will be
paid in USD. The transaction is effective as of 16 November 2015. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
Comment:
Given the selling of HMSB, this would provide SMCB with
additional funding to finance the acquisition of Semen
Andalas (Lafarge in Indonesia).
ACST: Sold 434m2 in Menteng on affiliated transaction
To PT Cross Plus Indonesia and PT Loka Cipta Kreasi,
which own 12.27% and 5.83% of ACST, respectively. The
transaction is valued at Rp4.65bn, under rights to use
(HGB) certificate with total surface area of 434m2.
Source: Bisnis Indonesia

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com

TRIM DAILY

Table
Indo Market PE vs 10yr Bond Yield
JCI PE (LHS)

(X)
18.0

5yr Bond Yield Indo (USD) vs US Bond Yield

Indo 10Yr Bond Yield (RHS)

17.0

(%)
10.0

4.5

9.5

4.0

9.0
16.0
8.5

Bond Yield US

(%)

Ind 5yr Bond Yield Indo in USD

3.5
3.0
2.5

15.0

8.0
2.0
7.5

14.0

1.5
7.0

1.0

Indo Market PE vs Regional (Weekly)


Weekly

Hang Seng

Singapore

Thailand

Philippines

Oct-15

Nov-15

Sep-15

Sep-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

May-15

Mar-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

0.0
Feb-15

12.0
6.0
Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov14 14
15
15 15
15 15
15 15
15
15 15
15

Dec-14

0.5

Nov-14

6.5

Dec-14

13.0

Foreign Fund Flow in last 5 & 30 days


Malaysia

Indonesia

(x)
22.0

5 Days

(USDmn)

30 Days

0
-19 -6
-78

20.0

(200)

18.0

(400)

-82
-145
-297
-479

16.0

-497
-550

(600)

14.0

-660

(800)

-742

12.0
(1,000)

10.0

-1,051

Oil Price (Brent), Coal Price (Newcastle), Gold


Brent Crude Oil (bbl) (LHS)

Coal (mt) (LHS)

(USD/ Troy oz.)

85

INDIA

VIETNAM

CPO Price, Soybean Price (both 1m Futures)

Gold (RHS)

(USD)

THAILAND

PHILIPPINES

INDONESIA

2015

2015

2014

2014

2013

2013

2012

2012

2011

2011

2010

2010

2010

6.0

SOUTH KOREA

(1,200)

8.0

CPO Malaysia (LHS)

Soybean (RHS)
(USD
Bushels)
1,100

(MYR Tons)
3,000

1,500

80

2,500

1,000

2,000

900

1,500

800

1,000

700

500

600

500

1,300

75
70

1,100

65
60

900

55
50

700

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Oct-15

Nov-15

Sep-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Dec-14

Dec-14

500
Nov-14

40

Nov-14

45

TRIM DAILY

Table
Coal Price (Newcastle) vs Coal Sector
Coal (LHS)

CPO Price (1m Futures in Malaysia) vs CPO Sector


CPO Malaysia (LHS)

COAL Sector (RHS)

CPO Sector (RHS)

(MYR / Ton)

(USD/MT)
80

250

3,000

90
80

70
200

2,500
70

60
2,000

50

60

150
50
1,500

40

40
100

30

30

1,000

20
50

20
500

10

10

ANTM (LHS)

Oct-15

Nov-15

Sep-15

Sep-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

May-15

Mar-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Dec-14

Dec-14

0
Nov-14

INCO, ANTM vs Nickel price (LME)


INCO (LHS)

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

Nov-14

Feb-15

0
Dec-14

ANTM vs Gold price

Nickel LME (RHS)

(Rp)
4,500

(USD /MT)
18,000

4,000

16,000

3,500

14,000

ANTM (LHS)

(Rp)
1,000

Gold (RHS)

(USD troy oz.)


1,400

900

1,300

800

1,200

700
3,000

1,100

12,000
600

2,500

1,000

10,000
500

900

2,000

8,000

1,500

6,000

1,000

4,000

200

500

2,000

100

600

500

TINS (LHS)

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Dec-14

700

Nov-14

TINS vs Tin price (LME)


(Rp)
1,400

800

300

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Sep-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Dec-14

Nov-14

400

GIAA vs Brent Crude Oil


Tin LME (RHS)

(USD/MT)
24,000

GIAA (LHS)

Crude Oil Brent (RHS)

(Rp)
700

(USD bbl)
100

21,000

1,200

600
80

18,000

1,000

500
15,000

800

60

400
12,000

600
9,000
400

300

6,000

200

3,000

100

40

20

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

0
Dec-14

0
Dec-14

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Dec-14

Dec-14

Nov-14

Nov-14

200

TRIM DAILY

World Economic Calendar


Date Time
11/10/2015

11/11/2015
11/12/2015

11/13/2015

11/16/2015
11/17/2015

11/17/2015

11/18/2016

11/19/2015

11/23/2015

11/24/2015

11/25/2015

Country Event

Period

Survey

Actual

Prior

US

NFIB Small Business Optimism

Oct

96.5

96.1

96.1

US

Import Price Index MoM (%)

Oct

-0.3

-0.1

-0.1

US

Wholesale Inventories MoM (%)

Sep

0.1

0.5

0.1

US

MBA Mortgage Applications (%)

6-Nov

--

-1.3

-0.8

US

Initial Jobless Claims ('000')

7-Nov

US

Continuing Claims ('000')

31-Oct

270

276

276

2165

2174

2163

US

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort

8-Nov

--

41.6

41.1

EC

Industrial Production SA MoM

Sep

-0.1

-0.3

-0.5

EC

Industrial Production WDA YoY

Sep

1.3

1.7

0.9

US

Monthly Budget Statement (USDbn)

Oct

-132

-136.5

-121.7

US

Retail Sales Advance MoM (%)

Oct

0.3

0.1

0.1

US

Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (%)

Oct

0.4

0.2

-0.3

US

Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (%)

Oct

0.4

0.3

0.0

US

PPI Final Demand MoM (%)

Oct

0.2

-0.4

-0.5

US

PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (%)

Oct

0.1

-0.1

-0.3

US

PPI Final Demand YoY (%)

Oct

-1.2

-1.6

-1.1
0.8

US

PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (%)

Oct

0.5

0.1

US

U. of Mich. Sentiment

Nov P

91.5

93.1

90

EC

Trade Balance SA (USDbn)

Sep

19.3

20.1

19.8

EC

Trade Balance NSA (USDbn)

Sep

16

20.5

11.2

EC

GDP SA QoQ (%)

3Q A

0.4

0.3

0.4

EC

GDP SA YoY (%)

3Q A

1.7

1.6

1.5

US

Empire Manufacturing

Nov

-6.3

-10.74

-11.4

ID

Trade Balance (USDmn)

Oct

725

1019

1017

ID
EC

Exports YoY (%)


CPI MoM (%)

Oct
Oct

-16.78
0.1

-20.98
0.1

-18.0
0.2

EC

CPI YoY (%)

Oct F

0.1

0.0

EC

CPI Core YoY (%)

Oct F

1.1

1.0

US

CPI MoM (%)

Oct

0.2

0.2

-0.2

US

CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (%)

Oct

0.2

0.2

0.2

US

CPI YoY (%)

Oct

0.1

0.2

0.0

US
US
ID

Industrial Production MoM (%)


Capacity Utilization
Bank Indonesia Reference Rate

Oct
Oct
17-Nov

0.1
77.5
7.5

-0.2
77.5
7.5

-0.2
77.5
7.5

ID

Bank Indonesia Lending Facility Rate

17-Nov

8.0

US

Net Long-term TIC Flows (USDbn)

Sep

--

33.6

20.4

US

Total Net TIC Flows (%)

Sep

--

-175.1

-9.2

US

MBA Mortgage Applications

13-Nov

--

6.2

-1.3

US

Housing Starts ('000')

Oct

1160

1060

1,206

US

Building Permits ('000')

Oct

1147

1150

1103

US

Initial Jobless Claims ('000')

14-Nov

270

--

276

US

Continuing Claims ('000')

7-Nov

2170

--

2174

US

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort

15-Nov

--

--

41.6

US

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook

Nov

-0.8

--

-4.5

US

Leading Index

Oct

0.5

--

-0.2

US

Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index

Oct

--

--

-0.37

US

Markit US Manufacturing PMI

Nov P

54

--

54.1

US

Existing Home Sales (USDmn)

Oct

5.4

--

5.55

US

Advance Goods Trade Balance (USDbn)

Oct

-61.9

--

-58.6

US

GDP Annualized QoQ

3Q S

--

1.5

US

Personal Consumption

3Q S

--

--

3.2

US

GDP Price Index

3Q S

1.2

--

1.2

US

MBA Mortgage Applications

20-Nov

--

--

--

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com

TRIM DAILY

Corporate Action
Warrant
Code

Price
Exercise

INVS-W

165

SUGI-W

100

MCOR-W

200

Maturity Emiten
8-May-15 Inovisi Infracom
21-May-15 Sugih Energy

Description
WARAN SERI I INOVISI INFRACOM
WARAN SERI II SUGIH ENERGY

10-Jul-15 Bank Windu Kentjana International WARAN SERI I BANK WINDU KENTJANA INTERNATIONAL

GAMA-W

105

16-Jul-15 Gading Development

SUPR-W

4800

28-Aug-15 Solusi Tunas Pratama

WARAN SERI I SOLUSI TUNAS PRATAMA

NIRO-W

110

11-Sep-15 Nirvana Development

WARAN SERI I NIRVANA DEVELOPMENT

BSIM-W

149

11-Dec-15 Bank Sinar Mas

WARAN SERI I BANK SINAR MAS

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com

WARAN SERI I GADING DEVELOPMENT

TRIM DAILY

Statistics
JCI

4,497.9

YTD (Rp)
YTD (USD)
Moving Avg 20day
Moving Avg 50day
Moving Avg 200day
Indonesia & Sectors
MSC I Indonesia
JII
LQ45
JAKFIN Index
JAKINFR Index
JAKMINE Index
JAKC ONS Index
JAKTRAD Index
JAKMIND Index
JAKBIND Index
JAKPROP Index
JAKAGRI Index

(3.0)

-13.95%
5.67%
4,534
4,446
4,936

Ma rket Div. Yield (%) 2.8%

5,318.4
593.8
773.4
668.6
929.9
881.7
2,042.1
811.8
1,102.3
402.8
473.1
1,638.9

+/18.2
4.5
2.4
-1.7
14.1
0.7
-13.1
-7.3
5.1
4.9
-3.3
-11.6

(%)YTD (%)
0.3
-14.2
0.8
-14.1
0.3
-13.9
-0.2
-8.6
1.5
-19.9
0.1
-35.6
-0.6
-6.2
-0.9
-7.6
0.5
-15.7
1.2
-25.9
-0.7
-9.9
-0.7
-30.3

183.6

+/-0.1

(%)YTD (%)
-0.06
-20.2

0.6
0.1
-0.0
0.3

1.31
0.20
-1.01
0.56

-23.0
-23.5
-19.1
-13.3

-2.0
-125
-100

-0.14
-1.37
-0.68

-19.9
-40.7
-24.7

0.1
-0.1

0.01
-0.64

-9.7
-9.7

36.0
-0.2
-0.3
-4.3
-6.3

1.69
-0.02
-0.07
-0.87
-0.72

-5.4
-26.4
-8.9
-18.1
-15.8

Commodities
C RB Index
Oil & Gas
Brent Crude Oil (USD/bbl)

44.1
Nymex Oil (USD/bbl)
40.8
Natural Gas
2.3
C OAL (AUS Daily)
53.8
Industrial Metals
Aluminum (USD/tonne)
1,468.5
Nickel (USD/tonne)
8,980
Tin (USD/tonne)
14,600
Precious Metal
Gold (USD/t oz.)
1,068.7
Silver (USD/t oz.)
14.1
Soft Commodities
C PO
PO (Malaysia
(Malaysia- Rm/tonne)
- Rm/tonne) 2,168
Rubber (JPY/kg)
1,208
C orn (USD/bu.)
362
Wheat (USD/bu.)
483
Soybeans (USD/bu.)
858

JCI Winners (%)

-0.1%

Volume (m)
3,387
Value (Rpbn)
4,443
Mkt C ap (Rptr)
4,748
Market 2015 P/E (x) 12.9

JCI Losers (%)

MAYA

BBRI

-9.8

SMMA

TLKM

-5.3

EXCL

PGAS

2.4

-4.2

CTRA

SMGR

INTP

1.6

-4.1

AKRA

ASII

TLKM

1.2

-3.2

GGRM

BMRI

ICBP

1.2

-2.8

UNTR

BBRI

0.5

-2.7

UNVR

0.4

ASII

0.4

11.5

SMGR

3.6

BDMN

3.0

INDF

-2.3
-0.4

Nikkei
TPX
HSI
KOSPI
TAIEX
FSSTI
ASEAN
SET
PC OMP
KLC I
Kurs
VNINDEX
USDEUR
USDGBP
USDC HF
USDC AD
USDAUD
USDNZD
USDJPY
USDC NY
USDHKD
USDSGD
Rupiah

JCI Value (Rpbn)

-10.0

PGAS

Indices
Region
MXWO
MSC I Word
1,691.6
SPX
S&P 500
2,083.6
US
Dow Jones Industrial
17,737.2
Nasdaq
US
5,075.2
Europe
EURO 50
Europe
379.3
FTSE
London
6,279.0
DAX
Jerman
10,960.0
C AC
France
4,906.7
SMI
Swiss
8,991.0
BRIC
BOVESPA
Brazil
47,435.6
MIC EX
Russia
1,810.5
SENSEX
India
25,482.5
NIFTY
India
7,731.8
SHC OMP
C hina
3,568.5
SZC OMP
C hina
2,189.9
Developed ASIA

100

281

200

Japan
Japan
Hong kong
S.Korea
Taiwan
Singapore

19,649.2
1,586.5
22,188.3
1,962.9
8,340.5
2,886.1

Thailand
1,376.8
Philipines
6,825.4
Malaysia
1,656.5
Region
Vietnam
603.3
Euro
0.938
UK
0.656
Switzerland
1.020
C anada
1.330
Australia
1.406
New Zealand
1.545
Japan
123.64
C hina
6.38
Hongkong
7.750
Singapore
1.421
Indonesia
13,819

JCI Volume (mn Lot)

300

0
BIPI

50
99

100

+/15.45
33.14

(%) Y T D ( %)
0.92
-1.06
1.62
1.20

247.7
89.19

1.42
1.79

-0.48
7.16

-0.55
10.21
-11.1
-30.59
38.38

-0.14
0.16
-0.10
-0.62
0.43

10.75
-4.37
11.77
14.84
0.08

188
23.25
-382.0
-105.8
-36.33
-41.30

0.40
1.30
-1.48
-1.35
-1.01
-1.85

-5.14
29.63
-7.33
-6.65
10.32
54.74

18.5
0.42
-76
-0.70
-79.0
-30.70

0.09
0.03
-0.34
-0.04
-0.94
-1.05

12.60
12.72
-6.00
2.47
-10.39
-14.24

-13.35 -0.96
-8.07
0.0
0.00
-5.60
-5.03 -0.30
-5.95
D ( %)
+/- (%)
-1.71
-0.28 Y T 10.58
-0.001
-0.2
17.3
-0.001
-0.2
9.4
0.005
0.5
2.0
-0.002
-0.1
10.9
0.000
0.0
17.2
-0.001
-0.0
18.8
0.190
0.2
3.2
0.01
0.1
3.0
-0.000
-0.0
-0.6
-0.003
-0.2
9.3
73.0
0.5
11.6

JCI Freq (x)

150
PGAS

9,089

PPRO

93

GSMF

5,472

ANTM

92

ASII

5,330

ASRI

89

SSMS

4,828

MYRX

87

BWPT

4,808

107

BWPT

85

UNTR

4,705

SSMS

106

NIRO

84

SMGR

4,691

LPPF

GGRM

103

TLKM

84

TLKM

4,551

HMSP

BBNI

96

PGAS

67

BBRI

4,453

BBCA

BBCA

91

TARA

67

GGRM

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com

239
190
150
134

4,216

TRIM DAILY

Historical Technical Trading Ideas (1)

Ticker

Last

Technical Call

JCI

4,589

strengthened

PTPP

3,805

Buy

GGRM

43,425

Buy

SMRA

1,420

Buy

BBRI

10,550

Buy

BBTN

1,095

Buy

SRIL

Ticker
JCI
NIRO

392

Trd. Buy

Last

Technical Call

4,589

strengthened

128

Buy

DMAS

230

Buy

SMCB

1,100

Buy

ITMG

10,500

Buy

SRIL

392

Buy

3,000

Sell

Last

Technical Call

JCI

4,487

strengthened

TLKM

2,740

Buy

TBIG

PGAS

Ticker

6,400

Buy

PWON

397

Buy

ASRI

398

Buy

ASII

6,125

Sell

PGAS

2,950

Sell

Last

Technical Call

4,589

strengthened

Ticker
JCI
TINS

710

Buy

INCO

2,310

Buy

BBNI

5,025

Sell

BBRI

10,550

Sell

PWON

416

Buy

SMGR

10,550

Buy

Ticker
JCI

Last

Technical Call

4,344

strengthened

AALI

20,325

Buy

BMRI

8,200

Buy

367

Buy

BBNI

4,400

Buy

ITMG

10,000

Sell

SMGR

10,050

Spec Buy

PWON

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com

12-Oct-15

Chg (%)

4,612
3,830
43,700
1,440
10,675
1,105
397

9-Oct-15

130
231
1,105
10,850
397
2,995

2,710
6,450
390
377
6,325
2,890

730
2,410
5,025
10,675
420
10,700

4,446
20,000
8,900
383
4,535
10,175
10,075

0.66%

Correct

0.63%

Correct

1.41%

Correct

1.18%

Correct

0.91%

Correct

1.28%

Correct

Recommendation
0.48%

Correct

1.56%

Correct

0.43%

Correct

0.45%

Correct

3.33%

Correct

1.28%

Correct

-0.17%

Correct

Recommendation
0.10%

Correct

-1.09%

Incorrect

0.78%

Correct

-1.76%

Incorrect

-5.28%

Incorrect

3.27%

Incorrect

-2.03%

Correct

Chg (%)

4,612

6-Oct-15

Correct

Chg (%)

4,491

7-Oct-15

0.48%

Chg (%)

4,612

8-Oct-15

Recommendation

Recommendation
0.48%

Correct

2.82%

Correct

4.33%

Correct

0.00%

Incorrect

1.18%

Incorrect

0.96%

Correct

1.42%

Correct

Chg (%)

Recommendation
2.35%

Correct

-1.60%

Incorrect

8.54%

Correct

4.36%

Correct

3.07%

Correct

1.75%

Incorrect

0.25%

Correct

TRIM DAILY

10

Historical Technical Trading Ideas (2)

Ticker

Last

Technical Call

JCI

4,208

strengthened

ITMG

9,725

Spec Buy

PWON

339

Spec Buy

ANTM

481

Spec Buy

PTPP

3,585

Buy

GGRM

44,450

Buy

SSMS

1,730

Buy

Ticker

Last

Technical Call

JCI

4,255

Weakening

PTPP

3,580

Buy

ASII

5,275

Buy

AALI

19,300

Buy

TINS

680

Buy

2,545

Buy

43,300

Buy

INCO
GGRM

Ticker

Last

Technical Call

JCI

4,224

strengthened

TLKM

2,645

Buy

TBIG

6,550

Buy

ROTI

1,175

Buy

UNVR

38,000

INCO

2,185

Trd. Buy

TINS

640

Trd. Buy

Ticker

Buy

Last

Technical Call

JCI

4,178

strengthened

PTPP

3,475

Buy

BBNI

4,070

Buy

BBRI

8,350

Buy

5,300

Buy

GGRM

ASII

42,750

Sell

UNTR

16,900

Sell

Last

Technical Call

JCI

Ticker

4,121

Weakening

PTPP

3,410

Buy

ROTI

1,145

Buy

TBIG

6,400

Buy

AKRA

5,875

Sell

BBTN

1,000

Sell

LSIP

1,400

Sell

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com

5-Oct-15
4,344
10,000
367
481
3,700
46,600
1,795

2-Oct-15
4,208
3,585
5,125
19,100
665
2,480
44,450

1-Oct-15
4,255
2,630
6,500
1,180
38,800
2,545
680

30-Sep-15
4,224
3,465
4,135
8,650
5,225
42,000
17,475

29-Sep-15
4,178
3,475
1,125
6,400
5,950
995
1,415

Chg (%)
3.23%

Recommendation
Correct

2.83%

Correct

8.26%

Correct

0.00%

Correct

3.21%

Correct

4.84%

Correct

3.76%

Correct

Chg (%)
-1.11%

Recommendation
Correct

0.14%

Correct

-2.84%

Incorrect

-1.04%

Incorrect

-2.21%

Incorrect

-2.55%

Incorrect

2.66%

Correct

Chg (%)

Recommendation

0.73%

Correct

-0.57%

Incorrect

-0.76%

Incorrect

0.43%

Correct

2.11%

Correct

16.48%

Correct

6.25%

Correct

Chg (%)

Recommendation

1.09%

Correct

-0.29%

Incorrect

1.60%

Correct

3.59%

Correct

-1.42%

Incorrect

-1.75%

Correct

3.40%

Incorrect

Chg (%)

Recommendation

1.41%

Incorrect

1.91%

Correct

-1.75%

Incorrect

0.00%

Correct

1.28%

Incorrect

-0.50%

Correct

1.07%

Incorrect

TRIM DAILY

11

Historical Technical Trading Ideas (3)

Ticker

Last

Technical Call

JCI

4,209

Rebound

TLKM

2,655

Buy

PTPP

3,470

Buy

BBNI

4,110

Buy

BBRI

8,550

Buy

ADRO

585

Buy

AKRA

6,000

Sell

Last

Technical Call

JCI

4,244

Weakening

ITMG

9,500

Buy

TBIG

6,550

Buy

LSIP

1,320

Buy

AALI

17,925

Buy

INCO

1,870

Buy

TINS

620

Buy

Last

Technical Call

JCI

4,344

Weakening

LSIP

1,260

Buy

ASII

5,800

Buy

TBIG

Ticker

Ticker

6,800

Buy

ADRO

595

Buy

SRIL

373

Buy

BWPT

254

Sell

Last

Technical Call

JCI

Ticker

4,376

Rebound

TLKM

2,730

Buy

AALI

18,100

Buy

ASII

5,800

Buy

BBNI

4,330

Buy

DILD

625

Buy

ROTI

1,175

Buy

Last

Technical Call

Ticker
JCI

4,380

Weakening

ROTI

1,175

Buy

SCMA

2,780

Buy

GGRM

42,825

Buy

TLKM

2,690

Buy

EXCL

2,395

Sell

895

Sell

WTON

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com

28-Sep-15
4,121
2,600
3,410
3,940
8,300
550
5,875

25-Sep-15
4,209
9,150
6,500
1,400
17,950
2,080
645

23-Sep-15
4,244
1,320
5,500
6,550
580
377
246

22-Sep-15
4,344
2,700
17,900
5,800
4,300
610
1,150

21-Sep-15
4,376
1,175
2,800
43,025
2,730
2,415
885

Chg (%)

Recommendation

-2.11%

Incorrect

-2.07%

Incorrect

-1.73%

Incorrect

-4.14%

Incorrect

-2.92%

Incorrect

-5.98%

Incorrect

-2.08%

Correct

Chg (%)

Recommendation

-0.82%

Correct

-3.68%

Incorrect

-0.76%

Incorrect

6.06%

Correct

0.14%

Correct

11.23%

Correct

4.03%

Correct

Chg (%)

Recommendation

-2.29%

Correct

4.76%

Correct

-5.17%

Incorrect

-3.68%

Incorrect

-2.52%

Incorrect

1.07%

Correct

-3.15%

Correct

Chg (%)

Recommendation

-0.73%

Incorrect

-1.10%

Incorrect

-1.10%

Incorrect

0.00%

Correct

-0.69%

Incorrect

-2.40%

Incorrect

-2.13%

Incorrect

Chg (%)

Recommendation

-0.10%

Correct

0.00%

Correct

0.72%

Correct

0.47%

Correct

1.49%

Correct

0.84%

Correct

-1.12%

Correct

TRIM DAILY

12

Historical Technical Trading Ideas (4)

Ticker

Last

Technical Call

JCI

4,378

strengthened

BBNI

4,350

Buy

SCMA

2,700

Buy

UNVR

39,100

Buy

640

Buy

WIKA

2,725

Sell

ROTI

1,180

Sell

Last

Technical Call

4,333

Rebound

TINS

Ticker
JCI
UNTR

18,850

Buy

TLKM

2,720

Buy

BBNI

4,315

Buy

PWON

348

Buy

SMGR

9,700

Buy

ASII

5,900

Buy

Last

Technical Call

JCI

4,347

Weakening

AKRA

5,575

Buy

UNTR

18,200

Buy

BBNI

4,360

Buy

BMRI

8,700

Buy

WIKA

2,675

Sell

MPPA

2,290

Sell

Last

Technical Call

JCI

4,390

Weakening

BBNI

4,450

Buy

Ticker

Ticker

BBCA

12,100

Buy

AKRA

5,750

Buy

SMRA

1,330

Buy

19,975

Sell

2,665

Sell

Last

Technical Call

JCI

4,360

Rebond

LSIP

1,170

Buy

INTP
PGAS

Ticker

BWPT

275

Buy

KLBF

1,550

Buy

AALI

18,000

Sell

ADRO

565

PGAS

2,685

Spec. Buy
Sell

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com

18-Sep-15
4,380
4,285
2,780
39,100
620
2,710
1,175

17-Sep-15
4,378
18,675
2,680
4,350
351
9,700
5,925

16-Sep-15
4,333
5,575
18,850
4,315
8,650
2,660
2,245

15-Sep-15
4,347
4,360
11,950
5,575
1,300
19,300
2,620

14-Sep-15
4,390
1,210
275
1,545
18,125
570
2,665

Chg (%)

Recommendation

0.04%

Correct

-1.49%

Incorrect

2.96%

Correct

0.00%

Correct

-3.13%

Incorrect

-0.55%

Correct

-0.42%

Correct

Chg (%)

Recommendation

1.06%

Correct

-0.93%

Incorrect

-1.47%

Correct

0.81%

Incorrect

0.86%

Incorrect

0.00%

Correct

0.42%

Correct

Chg (%)

Recommendation

-0.34%

Correct

0.00%

Correct

3.57%

Correct

-1.03%

Incorrect

-0.57%

Incorrect

-0.56%

Correct

-1.97%

Correct

Chg (%)

Recommendation

-0.98%

Correct

-2.02%

Correct

-1.24%

Correct

-3.04%

Incorrect

-2.26%

Incorrect

-3.38%

Correct

-1.69%

Correct

Chg (%)

Recommendation

0.69%

Correct

3.42%

Correct

0.00%

Correct

-0.32%

Incorrect

0.69%

Incorrect

0.88%

Correct

-0.74%

Correct

TRIM DAILY

13

Research Team
Sebastian Tobing, CFA
Head of Research & Institutional Business
(sebastian.tobing@trimegah.com)
Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA
Technical Analyst
(gina.nasution@trimegah.com)

M. Dian Octiana
Equity Analyst
(dian.octiana@trimegah.com)

Jennifer Yapply
Equity Analyst
(jennifer.yapply@trimegah.com)

Paula Ruth
Equity Analyst
(paula@trimegah.com)

Wisnu Budhiargo
Equity Analyst
(wisnu.budhiargo@trimegah.com)

Dini Agmivia Anggraeni


Fixed Income/Macro Analyst
(dini.anggraeni@trimegah.com)

Angga Aditya Assaf


Equity Analyst
(angga.aditya@trimegah.com)

Patricia Gabriela
Equity Analyst
(patricia.gabriela@trimegah.com)

Yeni Simanjuntak
On-the-ground Analyst
(yeni.simanjuntak@trimegah.com)

Willinoy Sitorus
Equity Analyst
(willinoy.sitorus@trimegah.com)

Kevie Aditya
Equity Analyst
(kevie.aditya@trimegah.com)

Rovandi
Research Associate
(rovandi@trimegah.com)

Institutional Sales Team


Daniel Dwi Seputro
Head of Institutional Equity Sales
(daniel.dwi@trimegah.com)
Dewi Yusnita
Equity Institutional Sales
(dewi.yusnita@trimegah.com)

Fachruly Fiater
Equity Institutional Sales
(fachruly.fiater@trimegah.com)

Raditya Andyono
Equity Institutional Sales
(raditya.andyono@trimegah.com)

Meitawati
Equity Institutional Sales
(meitawati.edianingsih@trimegah.com)

Henry Sidarta
Equity Institutional Sales
(henry.sidarta@trimegah.com)

Nancy Pardede
Equity Institutional Sales
(nancy.pardede@trimegah.com)

Retail Sales Team


JAKARTA AREA
Nathanael Benny Prasetyo
Head of Retail ECM
(benny.prasetyo@trimegah.com)
Ariawan Anwar
Artha Graha, Jakarta
(ariawan.anwar@trimegah.com)

SUMATERA
Juliana Effendy
Medan, Sumatera Utara
(juliana.effendi@trimegah.com)

Windra Djulnaily
Pluit, Jakarta
(windra.djulnaily@trimegah.com)

Tantie Rivi Watie


Pekanbaru, Riau
(tantierw@trimegah.com)

Ferry Zabur
Kelapa Gading, Jakarta
(ferry.zabur@trimegah.com)

EAST INDONESIA
Sonny Muljadi
Surabaya, Jawa Timur
(sonny.muljadi@trimegah.com

Eddy Sumarli
Puri Kencana, Jakarta
(eddy.sumarli@trimegah.com)
Very Wijaya
BSD, Tangerang
(very.wijaya@trimegah.com)

Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti


Denpasar, Bali
(dwihapsari.wijayanti@trimegah.com)
Ivan Jaka Perdana
Malang, Jawa Timur
(ivan.perdana@trimegah.com)

CENTRAL JAVA, AREA


Agus Bambang Suseno
Solo, Jawa Tengah
(agus.suseno@trimegah.com)
Mariana Kusuma Wati
Semarang, Jawa Tengah
Mariana.kusuma@trimegah.com)

WEST JAVA
Asep Saepudin
Bandung, Jawa Barat
(asep.saepudin@trimegah.com)
Ariffianto
Cirebon, Jawa Barat
(ariffianto@trimegah.com)

Arifin Pribadi
Makasar, Sulawesi Selatan
(arifin.pribadi@trimegah.com)

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com

TRIM DAILY

14

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk


Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53
Jakarta 12190, Indonesia
t. +62-21 2924 9088
f. +62-21 2924 9150
www.trimegah.com

DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information
purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has
been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities.
While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication,
Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is
provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance
on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any officer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or
consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted
upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in
future participate in an offering of the companys equity securities.
This report was prepared, approved, published and distributed by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk located outside of the United States (a non-US
Group Company). This report is distributed in the U.S. by Enclave Capital LLC (Enclave Capital), a U.S. registered broker dealer, on behalf of
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk only to major U.S. institutional investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934
(the Exchange Act)) pursuant to the exemption in Rule 15a-6 and any transaction effected by a U.S. customer in the securities described in
this report must be effected through Enclave Capital. Neither the report nor any analyst who prepared or approved the report is subject to U.S.
legal requirements or the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (FINRA) or other regulatory requirements pertaining to research
reports or research analysts. No non-US Group Company is registered as a broker-dealer under the Exchange Act or is a member of the
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. or any other U.S. self-regulatory organization.

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