3/20/2012

What is A Hazard?

Hazard Assessment
Hazard assessment is the basic step in community risk
assessment. Hazard assessment helps us to identify the
threats and understand their nature and behavior.

A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon and/or

human activity, which may cause the loss of life or injury,
property damage, social and economic disruption or
environmental degradation (UNISDR, 2004).

Popular Classification

Human Induced

Natural

Combination

Origin or Cases of Hazard

Origin or Causes of Hazards

Hazard

Origin or Causes
Hazard

Origin/Causes

Shaking of earth by the waves below the earths

Earthquake
surface

Cyclones

Wind currents that spin

Tsunami

Due to earthquake in sea/ocean/lake

Floods

River and coastal rising of water due to intense

rainfall

Volcanoes

Magma pushed upwards through internal pressure

developed by dissolved gases

Drought

Rainfall deficit over long time periods

Environmental
pollution

Caused by air, marine & fresh water pollutants

Storm Surges

Due to cyclones or tides in ocean/sea

Landslides

Epidemic

Down slope transport of soil & rock by natural

vibrations changes in direct water content or
removal of lateral support
Rise in parasitic infestations due to exposure to
contamination

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Hazard Assessment

Possible Reasons for New Hazards

"The process of studying the nature of hazards determining

its essential features (degree of severity, duration, extent,
impact on the area) and their relationship".

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Some Important Points to Consider in Hazard Assessment

Look at scientific and statistical data
Historical record
Approach other knowledgeable sources/people
Understand the various intensities of the same hazard
Hazard mapping

Hazard

Natural - changes in the pattern of weather leading to new

forms of drought and flooding.
Economic - Fluctuations in the value of currency affecting
livelihoods, trade related policy changes.
Social and political trends- Changes in policies, Relocations of people, Conflicts.
Industrial hazards- chemical accidents, poisoning.
New forms of epidemics- Bird Flu, AIDS, Hepatitis B & C

Factors to Consider in Understanding the Nature &

Behavior of Hazards
01. One Hazard Causing a Secondary Hazard

Factors to be considered
Causative factors?
Where?
How often?
How strong?
How long?
How fast?
Any warning signs/signals?
Time gap between warning
signs and the impact?

INFORMATION REQUIRED

Understanding of factors that

create, result in a hazard
Historic reports on past
incidence of hazards, in
particular the location,
frequency, severity, duration of
the events
Scientifics studies/Maps, long
term monitoring

In case of Earthquake, which can bring further

hazards like
Building collapse
Dam failure
Fire
Hazardous material spill Interruption of power/water supply/
communication/transportation/ waste disposal
Landslide
Soil liquefaction
Tsunami (tidal wave)

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Flood: Epidemics, snake bite, dam Failure

Drought: Epidemics, Famine
Civil war: Refugees & Displaced persons
Landslide: Epidemics, Temporary damming
Pollution: Diseases

2. Origin: The factor/s which create or result in a hazard. Disasters

experienced in the past. Other threats, new and emerging
threats.

3. Force which can damage:

The power of the hazard e.g. intensity of the cyclone;
magnitude of the earthquake; wind, water (rain, flood,
overflow, run-off, flashflood ,tidal wave, storm surge,
epidemic)land (slides, deposits by river, mudflow) fire (forest
fire, settlement fire), seismic (earthquake, tsunami,
liquefaction), conflicts (civil war, insurgency, other actions
leading to displacement and refugees), industrial/technological
(pollution, radio-activity, explosions), others

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4. Speed of onset:
Rapidity of arrival and impact (rapid and slow-onset). We can
distinguish between hazards that occur without almost any
warning (earthquake), and hazards that can be predicted 3 to 4
days in advance (cyclone) to very slow-onset hazards like drought
and famine.

5. Frequency:
How often does hazard occur -seasonally, yearly, once every 10
years, once in a lifetime, etc.

Assessment Approaches

6. Forewarning: time gap between warning signs and impact

7. Warning signs and signals:
Rainfall duration, intensity, quantity, speed of wind,
temperature, movement of animals, insects and birds etc in
case of floods.
8. Period of Occurrence or When :
Does hazard occur at a particularly time of the year (wet or
dry season; in November to December)
9. Duration:
How long is hazard felt (earthquake and aftershocks;
days/week/months that area is flooded; length of period of
military operations)

Example of Quantitative Approach

Quantitative Approach
Use mathematical functions with numerical values
Each variable will describe the relationship among parameters that
characterize the phenomena

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Required Data

Some Quantitative or Spatial Hazard Data in Various Forms

Hazard Matrix or Table

Qualitative Approach
Hazard
Type

Use qualitative descriptions (such as low,

medium or high) instead of numerical values
Flood

Hazard Assessment Matrix

Hazard map
Seasonal calendar
Historical profile

Geological hazard maps showing fault lines or unstable slopes

liable to cause landslides
Hydrological maps of flood-prone areas
Wind, rainfall and sea-surface temperature data
Recording of seismic activity from monitoring stations
Local rainfall and flood level records

Origin/
Cause

Warning
Signs

Forewarning

Force

Speed of
Onset

Frequency

Period of
Occurrenc
e(When)

Duration

5 days
continuou
s heavy
rain ,

Can often
be predicted a few
days in
advance

Once or 2
times/
year

Monsoon
season

7 days

3. Storm
Surge

movemen
t of ants

Relatively
short but
can vary
from a few
hours
(over-night)
to a few
days

Volume
of water

2. Seasonal
Rainfall

1.Torrential
RF

4. Dam
Burst

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Hazard Map

Ranking

Seasonal Calendar

Seasonal Calendar
Ranked on a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 is the lowest and 10 highest
(empty cells denotes 0).
J

1. Lack of clean water

10

2. Drought

10

3. Malaria
4. Pollution

7. Rainy Season
8. Fishing Season

10

10

10

5.Flooding due to storm

6. Dengue

9. Animal Disease

10. Working Outside / mitigation

10

10

10

11. Lack of Secondary Occupation

12. Availability of Food

10

10

10

13. Income from rubber

10

10

10

10

14. Income from fruit farming

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Seasonal Calendar

Hazard Assessment Modeling

Historical Profile

Some Guidelines in Hazard Assessment

Look at scientific and statistical data
Country Disaster Profile,
EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, www.emdat.net
Take action to translate scientific data into practical information
Integrate local knowledge with scientific and technical information
Approach knowledgeable sources/people
Understand the various intensities of the same hazard

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Look out for secondary hazards

Focus on new or emerging hazards
Be aware of local threats: the increasing number of
small scale, localized hazards which do not hit the
headlines or appear in disaster statistics. Cumulatively,
these can present a more serious problem than a
catastrophic event. For example, in densely populated
shanty towns, regular fires, floods, landslides, and
epidemics are increasingly common events.
Bring available maps to facilitate drawing of hazard
maps
Specifying the nature and behavior of the hazard is
specifically important in designing early warning
system, especially at the local and community

Scoring Assistance

2. Impact On Population.

1. Likelihood Of Event.

a. No Impact (0). No impact means that there is little

or no likelihood of this hazard affecting the
community or, if it occurs, there would be a minimal
affect on the Medical Center.
b. Limited (1). Limited impact means that a disaster
occurrence generally involves a serious threat to a
moderate number of people in the community.
There may be a few deaths and injuries and only
minor population dislocations from such an
occurrence (e.g., a typical avalanche or landslide).

a. None. A disaster event is not likely to occur.

b. Rare. A disaster event occurs less often than
once every 30 years (e.g. once every 50 years).
c. Occasional. A disaster event occurs less often than
once every 5 years, but more often than once
every 30 years (e.g., once every 12 years).
d.

Frequent. A disaster event occurs more often than

once every 5 years (e.g., once every 2
years).

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c. Substantial (2). Substantial impact means that a

disaster occurrence affects a significant number of
people, and may involve some loss of life, injuries
and possibly a sizable dislocation of population.
Some occurrences of transportation accidents,
urban fires, and floods fall into this category.
d. Major (3). Major impact means a disaster
occurrence affects a widespread area of the
community or a concentrated area with severe
effects. It may result in a large number of deaths
and injuries and involve a massive evacuation
and/or shelter operation. Large-scale earthquakes,
tornadoes, heavy flooding, and hurricanes fall into
this category.

3. Impact On Property.
a. No Impact (0). No impact means there is little or no likelihood of
this hazard affecting the community or, if it occurs, damage to
public and private property would be minimal.
b. Limited (1). Limited impact means that a disaster occurrence
generally involves only light damage to public or private property.
Local resources would be adequate to repair or replace the
damaged property.
c. Substantial (2). Substantial impact means that a disaster
occurrence results in moderate damage over a widespread or
concentrated area. Damage to public and private property may
exceed local resources to Repair or replace.
d. Major (3). Major impact means that a disaster occurrence results
in heavy damage to public and private property over a widespread
area or a concentrated area with severe effects. The magnitude of
the disaster may result in a Government Declaration of a Major
Disaster or Emergency .