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Main messages
1
Russias economy is Seasonally adjusted growth for the first two quarters was near zero.
Structural impediments slowed economic expansion even before the impact of
stagnating and
increased policy uncertainty amid increased geopolitical tensions.
uncertainty is impacting
The economy needed to internalize several rounds of sanctions,
investor and consumer countersanctions and measures to stabilize the economy: this meant operating
decisions in an environment of higher risk, which depressed domestic demand.
Our baseline projection is one of near stagnation with growth of 0.5 percent in
2014, 0.3 percent in 2015, and 0.4 percent and 2016.
Economic recovery will The stabilization effort should go hand in hand with renewed focus on
need a predictable improving the economys microeconomic fundamentals.
policy environment and A more balanced portfolio of national assets will help overcome structural
constraints to growth.
a new model of
Stabilization, transparent rules, better quality of public investment, and
diversified development competition should be the reform priorities for the next decade.
Prospects for future Restrained investment makes it less likely that well-paying jobs will be created,
poverty reduction and which could counterbalance the slowdown in income growth.
shared prosperity are Unless addressed, high inflation will hurt consumption growth, dimming the
likelihood for further poverty reduction.
limited
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1.4
1.0
0.8 0.7
1.0
1.3
0.4
0.4 0.0
0.2
0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1
-1
2012
2013
Pessimistic scenario
Low risk scenario (March 2014)
Baseline scenario
2014
2015
2016
Optimistic scenario
High risk scenario (March 2014)
80%
70%
60%
24
50%
40%
30%
43
20%
10%
0%
AUS
AZE
CAN
KAZ
MYS
NLD
Natural capital
NOR
RUS
Produced capital
SAU
TKM
Intangibles
UKR
ARE
USA
UZB
VEN
Development Challenges
Poverty and Shared Prosperity
16
0.424
15
0.422
0.420
14
0.418
13
0.416
12
0.414
11
0.412
10
0.410
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Poverty rate, %
Baseline scenario
Optimistic scenario
Pessimistic scenario
Gini (rhs)
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
-23
Consumption
Export
GDP growth
GFCF
Import
Change in stock
Discrepancy
11.01.2011
15.03.2011
10.05.2011
05.07.2011
30.08.2011
25.10.2011
20.12.2011
28.02.2012
24.04.2012
19.06.2012
14.08.2012
09.10.2012
04.12.2012
12.02.2013
09.04.2013
04.06.2013
30.07.2013
24.09.2013
19.11.2013
04.02.2014
01.04.2014
27.05.2014
22.07.2014
16.09.2014
5.5
4.5
300
280
7.5
7
260
6.5
240
220
200
180
160
140
12
0.026
10
0.0255
0.025
0.0245
0.024
0.0235
0.023
0.0225
0
2011
Food
2012
Non-Food
2013
Services
2014
CPI
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
2009
2010
non-Market
Tradables
2011
2012
2013
non-Tradables
Total
2014
7
6
5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
4
3.5
3
2.5
4
-1
1.5
1
2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
0.5
0
-6
-0.5
Construction
Transport
Real estate
2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
-1
Agriculture
Mineral extraction
Manufacturing
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
65
60
55
50
45
40
Food
Machinery & Equip
Manufacturing
2012
2013
Pessimistic scenario
Low risk scenario (March 2014)
Baseline scenario
2014
2015
2016
Optimistic scenario
High risk scenario (March 2014)
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
-12
Russia
EU Emerging
OECD HI
Other Emerging
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
2016f
World
-1.9
4.3
3.1
2.5
2.4
2.6
3.2
3.4
High Income
-3.6
3.0
1.8
1.5
1.2
1.8
2.4
2.5
Developing Countries
3.0
7.8
6.3
4.8
4.8
4.5
5.0
5.3
Euro Area
-4.4
1.9
1.6
-0.6
-0.4
0.9
1.4
1.8
Russia
-7.8
4.5
4.3
3.4
1.3
0.5
0.3
0.4
Development Challenges
Poverty and Shared prosperity
16
0.424
15
0.422
0.420
14
0.418
13
0.416
12
0.414
11
0.412
10
0.410
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Poverty rate, %
Baseline scenario
Optimistic scenario
Pessimistic scenario
Gini (rhs)
Policy Risks
The stalling of structural reforms
represents a down-side risk to Russias
medium- and long-term outlook.
Structural constraints in the economy
could diminish the effectiveness of
the Central Banks disinflation policy.
In the current environment of elevated
inflation risk, it will be particularly
important to adhere to fiscal prudency.
1
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-5
-10
-15
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
Percent
Three ways to integrate and grow: export product share, by factor intensity
80%
70%
60%
24
50%
40%
30%
43
20%
10%
0%
AUS
AZE
CAN
KAZ
MYS
NLD
Natural capital
NOR
RUS
Produced capital
SAU
TKM
Intangibles
UKR
ARE
USA
UZB
VEN
118,111
99,706
86,620
32,468
24,238
24,090
20,328
20,268
12,644
10,102
9,563
9,194
7,061
5,365
3,940
3,478
1,970
982
Improving infrastructure
Investment rates have improved but remain lower than comparators: Gross
capital formation, percent of GDP
Quality of infrastructure has been improving: Global Competitiveness Index:
Quality of infrastructure, score 1 (low) to 7 (high)
35
30
25
20
15
5
0
Russia
BRICS Average (excluding Russia)
EU11 Average
Resource Rich* Average
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
10
4
3
3
Russia
BRICS Average (excluding Russia)
AUS
0.90
CAN
UAE
CHI
USA
NOR
NLD
4.0
SAU
0.80
UKR AZE
VEN
UZB
0.70
3.5
RUS
KAZMYS
3.0
TKM BWA
0.60
2.5
y = 7E-06x + 0.6294
R = 0.7405
NIG
0.50
4.5
2.0
0.40
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Russia
BRICS Average (excluding Russia)
EU11 Average
Resource Rich* Average
Political
Stability
and
Absence of
Violence
Regulatory
Quality
Rule of Law
Voice and
Accountability
Netherlands
1.71
1.89
2.15
1.11
1.79
1.75
1.58
Norway
1.71
1.92
2.12
1.29
1.39
1.91
1.6
Canada
1.62
1.87
2.04
1.01
1.59
1.73
1.5
Australia
1.59
1.75
1.98
0.98
1.63
1.75
1.45
United States
1.32
1.64
1.51
0.44
1.54
1.55
1.22
Chile
1.15
1.21
1.43
0.56
1.48
1.25
0.98
0.7
0.54
0.89
0.97
0.61
0.61
0.58
0.49
0.85
0.84
0.86
0.66
0.54
-0.81
M alay sia
0.36
1.06
0.27
0.2
0.53
0.5
-0.39
Saudi Arabia
-0.36
-0.2
-0.23
-0.29
0.03
0.16
-1.62
Ukraine
-0.58
-0.68
-0.92
-0.21
-0.53
-0.85
-0.27
Kazakhstan
-0.63
-0.6
-0.98
0.16
-0.4
-0.89
-1.06
Russian Federation
-0.73
-0.47
-0.93
-1.05
-0.33
-0.89
-0.7
Azerbaijan
-0.88
-0.8
-1.08
-0.79
-0.59
-0.88
-1.13
Venezuela, RB
-1.02
-0.98
-1.01
-1.12
-1.07
-1.33
-0.62
Nigeria
-1.14
-1.02
-1.11
-1.73
-0.89
-1.24
-0.84
Turkmenistan
-1.32
-1.47
-1.25
0.15
-1.99
-1.42
-1.94
Uzbekistan
-1.34
-1
-1.07
-1.16
-1.66
-1.27
-1.91
Botswana
United Arab Emirates
Weak Institutions
for regulating enterprises
The regulatory environment is highly restrictive of competition: Product market
regulation, OECD Product Market Regulation Index
4.5
Russia 2008
3.5
2.5
1.5
1.52
0.5
-0.5 Product Market Regulation (PMR)
State Control
Thank you!
For more information about the World Bank and its
activities in the Russian Federation, please visit:
http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/russia
If you would like to be access our Russia Economic Reports,
please visit:
www.worldbank.org/eca/rer
EXTRA SLIDES
2015
2016
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.3
1.0
-2.1
-1.0
57.9
54.3
2.8
2.5
-60.1
-55.6
-2.9
-2.6
99.5
100.1
76320.7
81223.6
7.0
5.0
2013
2014
2015
2016
3.4
1.3
0.5
0.9
1.3
6.8
3.5
2.2
0.9
1.5
0.6
-6.0
-8.1
1.5
2.5
0.4
-1.3
-1.1
-2.3
-1.2
71.3
34.1
62.8
42.9
28.6
3.6
1.6
3.1
2.0
1.3
-32.3
-62.2
-113.0
-45.0
-25.5
-1.6
-3.0
-5.6
-2.1
-1.1
105.0
104.0
102.9
99.5
100.1
62218.4
66755.3
71785.3
76777.3
82441.9
5.1
6.8
8.0
6.0
5.0
percent of GDP
Capital account (US$ billions)
percent of GDP
Oil price assumption (US$ per barrel)
Gross Domestic Product (mp), bln Rub
CPI inflation
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
3.4
1.3
0.4
-0.9
-0.4
6.8
3.5
2.0
-0.3
-0.3
0.6
-6.0
-8.5
-4.3
-1.2
0.4
-1.3
-0.7
-2.8
-1.2
71.3
34.1
69.3
82.2
80.8
3.6
1.6
3.6
4.5
4.3
-32.3
-62.2
-128.0
-82.3
-80.0
-1.6
-3.0
-6.6
-4.5
-4.3
105.0
104.0
102.9
99.5
100.1
62218.4
66755.3
71713.9
76753.9
81798.2
5.1
6.8
8.0
10.0
8.0
percent of GDP
Capital account (US$ billions)
percent of GDP
Oil price assumption (US$ per barrel)
Gross Domestic Product (mp), bln Rub
CPI inflation
10
20
15
10
-5
-10
-15
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014