Pr(Plane 2 crashes) = Pr(engine 1 fails engine 2 fails engine 3 fails)

= p3

Pr(Plane 1 crashes) = Pr(engine 1 fails engine 2 fails) = 0.008

Back to the question:

If A, B are independent, then AC and B, A and BC , AC and BC are all independent as well.

Would you be able to show the following?

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)

Rules to remember:

fail. I prefer plane 2 if p is smaller than what value?

engines, each of them has probability p of failing, the plane will crash only if the 3 of them

them has probability 0.4% of failure and the plane will crash if either fails. Plane 2 has 3

I am flying from A to B and there are 2 planes I can take. Plane 1 has 2 engines, each of

Quiz 1; Question 1

from this section using pictures, such as Venn Diagrams.

be of key importance for your Econometrics course later on. You can proove basic results

point of view. Further more, we will start working with conditional probabilities, which will

The first quiz deals all with understanding the concept of probability from a set-theoretic

First Quiz

< 0.1998 20%

(e)

Pr(Plane 1 crashes)

::::::::::::

then the intersection of the pairwise intersections has to be empty as well.

This should make sense, try to verify using diagrams. If the pairwise intersection is empty,

But Pr(C B) = Pr(C A) = 0 and hence Pr(C A B) = 0

Pr(C (A B)) = Pr((C A) (C B)) = Pr(C A) + Pr(C B) Pr(C A B)

Why is this so?

Pr(C (A D)) = 0.4 + 0.64 ::::::::::::::::::::::::: =

Pr(A D) = 0.4 + 0.4 (0.4)2 = 0.64

() A and D are independent. Suppose independence is true:

Pr(D B) = 0; Pr(A B) = 10%. Which of the following are possible?

Consider 4 events, A, B, C, D. Pr(A) = Pr(B) = Pr(C) = Pr(D) = 0.4. Pr(C D) = Pr(C A) =

check out each option. This makes it difficult! But lets go have a look.

I believe this is the toughest question on this problem set, mainly because you have to

Question 2

:::

p3 < 0.008 0.000016

Pr(Plane 2 crashes)

I will prefer plane 2 when:

:::::::::::: ::::::::::::

1 Pr(A B C D)

This is a contradiction.

BUT Pr((B C) (A D)) = Pr(A D) + Pr(B C) Pr(B C A D) = Pr(A D) + Pr(B C) 0.5

Pr(A D) + Pr(B C) 0.5

= 1.6 Pr(A B) Pr(A D) Pr(B C)

+Pr(A C D) + Pr(B C D) Pr(A B C D)

Pr(B D) Pr(C D) + Pr(A B C) + Pr(A B D)

= Pr(A) + Pr(B) + Pr(C) + Pr(D) Pr(A B) Pr(A C) Pr(A D) Pr(B C)

ii) Hypothesist: Pr((B C) (A D)) = 0.45

i) Pr(C D) = 0.8 Pr((C D)C ) = 0.2

(c) Pr((B C) (A D)) = 0.45. Several possible solutions, heres one:

Pr(B C) = Pr(B) + Pr(C) Pr(B C)

How to show this?

(b) Pr(B C) = 0.20

BUT

= 0.6 Pr(D A)
0.6
Pr(A)

= 1 0.65 = 0.35
Pr(D A)

r
3r + 0
p
3r
=
(1 p)
p

Pr(E |Ej )

Pr(E Ej )

:::::::::::::::::::::::::

Pr(at least one event occurs) = 3

Pr(Ej ) =

(e)

Pr(E1 E2 ) Pr(E2 E3 ) Pr(E3 E1 )

Pr(at least one event occurs) = Pr(E1 ) + Pr(E2 ) + Pr(E3 )

of the three events occurs?

P[E1 E3 ] = P[E2 E3 ] = r, and P[E1 E2 E3 ] = 0. What is the probability that at least one

If E1, E2 and E3 are events such that P[E1 |E2 ] = P[E2 |E3 ] = P[E3 |E1 ] = p; P[E1 E2 ] =

Question 3

Pr((A D) C) = 0.4 + 0.75 Pr((A D) C) = 1.15

Pr(A D) = 0.4 + 0.4 0.05 = 0.75

Pr(D A) = 0.05

+ Pr(D A) = 0.4
BUT Pr(D A)

= Pr(D) + Pr(A)
Pr(D A)
= 0.65
Pr(D A)

= 0.65. Suppose its true:

(e) Pr(D A)

= 0.55.
(d) Pr(D A)

1
4

and 1?

(1)3

(1/ 4)3

(1/ 2)3 (1/ 4)3

(e) P(B|A) < P(B).

Pr(B|A)Pr(A)

FALSE

FALSE

(b)

FY (1) FY (1/ 4)

FY (1/ 2) FY (1/ 4)

< Pr(A)
Pr(B)
Pr(B|A) < Pr(B)
TRUE

Pr(A|B) =

Pr(A|B) > Pr(A|B)Pr(B) = Pr(A B)

(d) P(A|B) < P(A B).

< Pr(A)
Pr(B)
Pr(A B) < Pr(A)Pr(B) < Pr(A)

Pr(A|B) =

Pr(A B)

:::::::::::::::::::::::::

(b) P(B) < P(A).

(c) P(A) < P(A B).

:::::::::::::::::::::::::

() P(A) < P(B).

Pr(y (1/ 4, 1))

Pr(y (1/ 4, 1/ 2))

:::::::::::::::::::::::::

If P(A|B) < P(A), which of the following must be true:

Pr(y (0, 1/ 2)|y (1/ 4, 1)) =

FY (1) = k/ 3 = 1 k = 3

FY (y) = ::::::::::::::::::::::::: = :::::::::::::::::::::::::

given that it is between

Question 5

1
2

(LM) Suppose that Y (y) = ky 2 ; 0 y 1. What is the probability that Y is between 0 and

Question 4

Pr(Fair|Pear wins) =

(0.6)(0.5) + (0.9)(0.5)

(0.6)(0.5)

= 40%

(d)

Pr(Pear wins| Fair)Pr(Fair) + Pr(Pear wins| Unfair)Pr(Unfair)

Pr(Pear wins| Fair)Pr(Fair)

posterior probability of having a fair election is:

fair election was 50%. Today, I read in the Guardian that Ms. Pear did win the election. My

of winning the election jump up to 90%. Initially, I thought that the probability of having a

60% of probability of winning the election. If the elections are not fair, however, her odds

An election is to be held in Banaland. If the elections are fair, the incumbent, Ms. Pear, has

Question 6

now as P(A|B) < P(A) we must have P(B) > P(B|A).

Alternative: P(A B) = P(A|B)P(B) = P(B|A)P(A) = P(A B)

= 0.2

1 0.65

(d)

= 0.2(1 + (0.05 + 0.6) + (0.65)2 + )

+[(0.2)(0.25) + (0.8)(0.75)]2 (0.8)(0.25) +

Pr(Brazil wins) = (0.8)(0.25) + [(0.2)(0.25) + (0.8)(0.75)](0.8)(0.25)

you should expect a converging geometric series to show up somewhere.

Note: it may not be entirely clear, but such a penality shoot-out can go forever. Hence,

world cup?

tied after each team has its 5 opportunities, what is the probability that Brazil will win the

is 0.8 and the probability that an Italian player scores is 0.75. If the penalty shoot-out is

we have it over. Assume that the probability that a Brazilian player scores a penalty shot

for each team. If after the 5 shots of each team there is tie, each team shoots once until

award in the world of sports in that year. A penalty shoot-out starts with 5 opportunities

00. A penalty shoot-out between Brazil and Italy will define who gets the most important

It is the final game of the World Cup, 1994. The match was pretty boring and ended up tied,

Question 7

365

364

(365)22 343!

365!

365

365

(d)

365

363

365

344

day different than player 1 and/ or 2 and so on...

different from the first player. The third term is the probability of player 3 being born on a

first player. This probability is 364/365, because that is the chance of being born on a day

term is the probability that the second player has the birthday not in common with the

with none of the previously analyzed players (because there have been none). The second

The first term corresponds to the probability that the first player has no birthday in common

= 1

= 1

= 1 Pr((player 1 does not share with 0 perviously analyzed players

Pr(at least 2 share a birthday) = 1 Pr(no players share a birthday)

there are 21 chances. Comparing all individuals with each other, not counting chances
!22

twice means there are in total 231 chances - 2 .

If we have 22 players, the first player can compare his birthday with 21 other players. So

The reason lies in the number of possible unique comparisions (permutations).

Intuition: why do the probabilities get so large?

a birthday - this is most likely not true, spring feelings!

people. This is due to the assumption that each day out of the year is equally likely to be

sidered approaches 365. A probability of 99 percent is reached with a group of only 58

"at least 2 share a birthday" approaches 100 percent as the number of individuals con-

This is known as the so-called Birthday-problem in statistics. The probability of the event

day?

What is the probability that at least 2 out of the 22 players have their birthday in the same

Question 8

Pr(A)

Pr(Bj A)
Pr(A)

Pr(A|Bj )Pr(Bj )

B = S and B Bj =

=1

n
[

j 6=

1 (1 p) + 0.5 (p)

1 (1 p)

1 0.5p

1p

Pr(same sex | identical)Pr(identical) + Pr(same sex | fraternal)Pr(fraternal)

Pr(same sex | identical)Pr(identical)

Pr(identical twins | same sex twins)

Note that {fraternal set, identical set} is a partition of {twins}

Pr(identical set|twins) = 1-p

Pr(fraternal set|twins) = p

is the probability that they are identical?

set is p and an identical set is q = 1 p. If the next set of twins are of the same sex, what

have a 50-50 chance of being the same sex. Among twins, the probability of a fraternal

Identical twins come from the same egg and hence are of the same sex. Fraternal twins

Class 1; Example 2 - Applying Bayes Rule - (pg. 10)

Pr(A|Bj )Pr(Bj )
= Pn
Pr(A|B )Pr(B )
=1

Pr(Bj |A) =

{Bj }nj=1 is a partition of S because

Class 1; Example 1 - Bayes Rule - (pg. 10)

So: Pr(exactly one event) = Pr(A) Pr(A B) + Pr(B) Pr(A B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) 2Pr(A B)

simpler:

There is an algebraic solution in the notes, but sometimes a graphical representation is

exactly one of the events A and B occurs:

Let events A and B be independent. Find the probability, in terms of Pr(A) and Pr(B) that

Class 1; Example 3 - Benefit of Diagrams - (pg. 13)